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At least 1,693 records · Page 94Linked to original sources

USGS2003

Aquatic assemblages and their relation to temperature variables of least-disturbed streams in the Salmon River basin, central Idaho, 2001

In the late 1990s, Idaho’s established stream temperature criteria for the protection of coldwater biota and salmonid spawning were considered inadequate because the criteria did not agree with observed biological conditions in many instances and did not allow for variability in environmental condition or species diversity across a broad area such as the entire State of Idaho. In 2001, benthic invertebrate and fish assemblages in 34 least-disturbed streams in the Salmon River Basin, central Idaho, were evaluated in relation to stream temperature and other environmental variables. The Salmon River Basin retains watersheds that are minimally affected by human activities. These “natural” stream conditions provide a basis for deriving attainable stream temperatures that can be used to set new, and revise existing, water-quality criteria for stream habitats affected by human activities. During July through September 2001, data were collected to document the thermal regime of least-disturbed streams, characterize the distribution of aquatic biota at streams representing a gradient of temperature, and describe the relations between environmental variables and benthic invertebrate and fish assemblages. Nine stream temperature metrics were compared with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s criterion of 10 ° C (degrees Celsius) for bull trout spawning and juvenile rearing. The maximum weekly-maximum temperature at all 33 sites where temperature data were available exceeded this criterion. The maximum daily-maximum temperature (MDMT) at 30 of the sites exceeded the Idaho Department of Environmental Quality (IDEQ) criterion of 13.0 ° C for the protection of salmonid spawning; and the maximum daily-average temperature at all 33 sites exceeded the 9.0 ° C criterion for the protection of salmonid spawning. The thermal regime at most sites did not exceed the IDEQ criteria for the protection of coldwater biota. Nine environmental variables—water-surface gradient, discharge, wetted channel width, width:depth ratio, aspect, total seasonal thermal input, open canopy, riparian canopy density, and elevation were selected for correlation with the nine stream temperature metrics. Elevation showed the strongest inverse correlation with the stream temperature metrics. Two hundred and one benthic invertebrate taxa from the 34 sampling sites were identified. The most abundant taxa were Baetis tricaudatus , Oligochaeta, Tvetenia bavarica gr., Acari, Rhithrogena , Cinygmula , Heterlimnius , Micropsectra , Eukiefferiella devonica gr., Drunella doddsi , and Cricotopus . Of the 201 benthic invertebrate taxa collected during this study, 57 taxa (present at a minimum of 5 sampling sites) were significantly correlated with one or more of the stream temperature metrics. Among the invertebrate taxa collected, 32 were identified as coldwater taxa. Of the coldwater taxa collected, Zapada oregonensis gr. showed the strongest inverse correlation with the stream temperature metrics and was collected at sites where maximum weekly-maximum temperature (based on date of sample and 6 days prior) ranged from 11.3 ° to 18.5 °C. Ten species of fish in the families Salmonidae, Cottidae, and Cyprinidae were collected. Two species (bull trout and chinook salmon) listed as threatened under the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Endangered Species Act were collected. Among all species, bull trout showed the strongest inverse correlation between relative fish abundance and stream temperature. Bull trout and juvenile bull trout densities were inversely correlated with stream temperature. The probability of occurrence of juvenile bull trout was significantly correlated with MDMT on the basis of results from a logistic regression model developed during this study. However, this model differed from a similar model developed by the U.S. Forest Service on the basis of regional data collected in the Pacific Northwest. The regression model based on data collected during this study showed higher probabilities of occurrence of bull trout at colder stream temperatures (10 ° to 15 ° C) and lower probabilities of occurrence at warmer stream temperatures (16 ° to 21 ° C) than did the model based on regional data. The model comparisons suggest that regional or local differences need to be considered when deriving stream temperature criteria.

Idaho↗

USGS2004

Simulated effects of ground-water augmentation on the hydrology of Round and Halfmoon Lakes in northwestern Hillsborough County, Florida

Pumpage from the Upper Floridan aquifer in northwest Hillsborough County near Tampa, Florida, has induced downward leakage from the overlying surficial aquifer and lowered the water table in many areas. Leakage is highest where the confining layer separating the aquifers is breached, which is common beneath many of the lakes in the study area. Leakage of water to the Upper Floridan aquifer has lowered the water level in many lakes and drained many wetlands. Ground water from the Upper Floridan aquifer has been added (augmented) to some lakes in an effort to maintain lake levels, but the resulting lake-water chemistry and lake leakage patterns are substantially different from those of natural lakes. Changes in lake-water chemistry can cause changes in lake flora, fauna, and lake sediment composition, and large volumes of lake leakage are suspected to enhance the formation of sinkholes near the shoreline of augmented lakes. The leakage rate of lake water through the surficial aquifer to the Upper Floridan aquifer was estimated in this study using ground-water-flow models developed for an augmented lake (Round Lake) and non-augmented lake (Halfmoon Lake). Flow models developed with MODFLOW were calibrated through nonlinear regression with UCODE to measured water levels and monthly net ground-water-flow rates from the lakes estimated from lake-water budgets. Monthly estimates of ground-water recharge were computed using an unsaturated flow model (LEACHM) that simulated daily changes in storage of water in the soil profile, thus estimating recharge as drainage to the water table. Aquifer properties in the Round Lake model were estimated through transient-state simulations using two sets of monthly recharge rates computed during July 1996 to February 1999, which spanned both average conditions (July 1996 through October 1997), and an El Niño event (November 1997 through September 1998) when the recharge rate doubled. Aquifer properties in the Halfmoon Lake model were estimated through steady-state simulations of average conditions in July 1996. Simulated hydrographs computed by the Round and Halfmoon Lake models closely matched measured water-level fluctuations, except during El Niño, when the Halfmoon Lake model was unable to accurately reproduce water levels. Possibly, potential recharge during El Niño was diverted through ground-water-flow outlets that were not represented in the Halfmoon Lake model, or a large part of the rainfall was diverted into runoff before it could become recharge. Solute transport simulations with MT3D indicate that leakage of lake water extended 250 to 400 feet into the surficial aquifer around Round Lake, and from 75 to 150 feet around Halfmoon Lake before flowing to the underlying Upper Floridan aquifer. These results are in agreement with concentrations of stable isotopes of oxygen-18 (d18O) and deuterium (dD) in the surficial aquifer. Schedules of monthly augmentation rates to maintain constant stages in Round and Halfmoon Lakes were computed using an equation that accounted for changes in the Upper Floridan aquifer head and the deviation from the mean recharge rate. Resulting lake stages were nearly constant during the first half of the study, but increased above target lake stages during El Niño; modifying the computation of augmentation rates to account for the higher recharge rate during El Niño resulted in lake stages that were closer to the target lake stage. Substantially more lake leakage flows to the Upper Floridan aquifer from Round Lake than from Halfmoon Lake, because the estimated vertical hydraulic conductivities of lake and confining layer sediments and breaches in the confining layer beneath Round Lake are much greater. Augmentation rates required to maintain the low guidance stages in Round Lake (53 feet) and Halfmoon Lake (42 feet) under average Upper Floridan aquifer heads are estimated as 33,850 cubic feet per day and 1,330 to 10,000 cubic feet per day, respectively. These rates equate to 26 inches per month of water applied to the entire surface of Round Lake and 0.34 to 2.5 inches per month of water applied to Halfmoon Lake.

Florida↗

USGS1996

Hydrogeologic setting and preliminary estimates of hydrologic components for Bull Run Lake and the Bull Run Lake drainage basin, Multnomah and Clackamas counties, Oregon

The hydrogeologic setting was described and preliminary estimates of hydrologic components prepared for the Bull Run Lake and for the Bull Run Lake drainage basin, in the Cascade Range of northwestern Oregon. The 0.73-square-mile lake and the 3.44-square-mile drainage basin lie within the Bull Run Watershed, the principal water supply for the Portland, Oregon, metropolitan area. During periods of high demand or low inflows to the watershed, the City of Portland, Bureau of Water Works, releases water from Bull Run Lake to augment the supply. Bull Run Lake is impounded by a natural dam formed by a landslide. Outflow of ground water from the lake through the landslide emerges as springflow at the toe of the landslide and forms the headwaters of the Bull Run River. The approximately 4,300-Mgal (million gallons) discharge of the Bull Run River measured below the springs during the 1993 water year is composed of (1) outflow of ground water from Bull Run Lake through the landslide (approximately 60 percent), (2) ground water originating from the contributing drainage area between the lake and the springs (approximately 34 percent), (3) streamflow from Bull Run Lake (approximately 5 percent), and (4) surface runoff (streamflow and overland flow) from the contributing drainage area between the lake and the springs (approximately 1 percent). Estimated ranges for inflows to the Bull Run Lake drainage basin during the 1993 water year were about 3,400 to 9,200 Mgal from precipitation from rain and snow, and about 0 to 3,300 Mgal from fog drip. Estimated ranges for outflows from the lake basin, listed from largest to smallest, were about 1,800 to 3,400 Mgal for ground-water outflow through the landslide; about 600 to 1,800 Mgal for evapotranspiration from the land surface; about 170 to 410 Mgal for lake evaporation; and about 0 to 400 Mgal for streamflow from the lake. Ground- water outflow through the consolidated rocks could not be evaluated owing to the lack of data. The lake storage increased by a range of from about 1,700 to 1,900 Mgal. Changes in ground-water storage and soil-moisture storage could not be evaluated as a result of insufficient data. Estimated inflows to Bull Run Lake from precipitation on the lake surface during the 1993 water year ranged from about 600 to 1,600 Mgal. Inflows from ground water and surface runoff could not be evaluated owing to the lack of data. Estimated ranges for outflows from the lake were about 1,800 to 3,400 Mgal from ground-wateroutflow through the landslide, about 170 to 410 Mgal from lake evaporation, and about 0 to 400 Mgal from streamflow. Outflow of ground water through the consolidated rocks could not be evaluated owing to the lack of data. Lake storage increased by a range of from about 1,700 to 1,900 Mgal. Suggestions for further study include (1) evaluation of the surface-runoff component of inflow to the lake; (2) use of a cross-sectional ground-water flow model to estimate ground-water inflow, outflow, and storage; (3) additional data collection to reduce the uncertainties of the hydrologic components that have large relative uncertainties; and (4) determination of long-term trends for a wide range of climatic and hydrologic conditions.

Oregon↗

USGS2015

Geochemical conditions and the occurrence of selected trace elements in groundwater basins used for public drinking-water supply, Desert and Basin and Range hydrogeologic provinces, 2006-11: California GAMA Priority Basin Project

The geochemical conditions, occurrence of selected trace elements, and processes controlling the occurrence of selected trace elements in groundwater were investigated in groundwater basins of the Desert and Basin and Range (DBR) hydrogeologic provinces in southeastern California as part of the Priority Basin Project (PBP) of the Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) Program. The GAMA PBP is designed to provide an assessment of the quality of untreated (raw) groundwater in the aquifer systems that are used for public drinking-water supply. The GAMA PBP is being conducted by the California State Water Resources Control Board in collaboration with the U.S. Geological Survey and the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. The DBR hydrogeologic provinces consist of 141 defined groundwater basins separated by mountain ranges, faults, and other features. This report presents analyses of data collected from nine study areas within the DBR hydrogeologic provinces: Antelope Valley, Borrego Valley, the Central Desert area, Coachella Valley, Colorado River, Indian Wells Valley, Low-Use Basins of the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts, the Mojave, and Owens Valley. Collectively, these nine study areas are referred to as the DBR study unit. The study unit covers approximately 7,000 square miles and includes the 63 groundwater basins in the DBR hydrogeologic provinces in which groundwater is used for public drinking-water supply. The vast majority of the 223 wells sampled for this study were long-screened production wells used primarily for public supply. Uncorrected carbon-14 ( 14 C) groundwater ages for samples collected in the DBR study unit ranged from less than (<) 100 to 33,700 years before present (BP). Sixty-six percent of sample ages were greater than (>) 100 years BP, and 40 percent were >3,800 years BP. Samples collected from wells located adjacent to mountain-front recharge areas or major surface-water features generally had younger groundwater ages than did samples collected from wells located away from mountain fronts or towards the distal ends of basin groundwater flow paths. Most groundwater sampled in the DBR study unit had alkaline pH: 89 percent of sample pH values ranged from 7.1 to 9.8, with 37 percent greater than or equal to (≥) 7.9. Groundwater age was significantly correlated (positively) with pH, likely because silicate weathering is a primary control on groundwater pH and is a slow process. The oxidation-reduction (redox) condition of the groundwater sampled in the DBR study unit was predominantly oxic (71 percent), except in the Colorado River study area where organic-rich fluvial aquifers provide the electron donors necessary to support iron-reducing (anoxic-Fe) redox processes. The cation type of 78 percent of the samples was either sodium- or mixed-type, and the anion type of 83 percent of the samples was either bicarbonate- or mixed-type. Sodium-type groundwaters generally were older and more alkaline than calcium-type groundwaters, consistent with the change in water chemistry expected from cation exchange between groundwater and aquifer sediments over long periods of time. Because of the correlation with young groundwater, calcium-type groundwater was predominantly from wells located adjacent to mountain-front recharge areas. Arsenic (As), boron (B), fluoride (F), molybdenum (Mo), strontium (Sr), uranium (U), and vanadium (V) were selected for assessment in this study because they occurred at concentrations greater than California Department of Public Health or U.S. Environmental Protection Agency regulatory or non-regulatory drinking-water-quality benchmarks in more than 2 percent of the 223 samples collected in the DBR study unit. As and F were detected most commonly (18 and 13 percent, respectively) at concentrations above associated water-quality benchmarks and Sr and V least frequently (both at 3 percent). Given that 14 C groundwater ages are predominantly >100 years BP, land use in the study unit is primarily undeveloped, and chemicals derived from anthropogenic sources, such as volatile organic compounds, were infrequently detected, high concentrations of these trace elements in groundwater were most likely the result of natural factors and not anthropogenic factors. As, F, Mo, and V concentrations showed significant positive correlations to groundwater age and to pH. This relation is partly due to the sources of trace elements likely being the weathering of primary minerals, such as silicate minerals, which is a slow process that takes place over hundreds to thousands of years. This relation also reflects the positive correlation between groundwater age and pH. Geochemical modeling predicted that the dominant species of As, Mo, and V in solution were oxyanions (HAsO 4 2– , MoO 4 2– , and H 2 VO 4– ), which are likely to be mobile in alkaline groundwater because mineral surfaces composing aquifer matrices have a predominantly negative surface charge under alkaline conditions. F also exists predominantly as a negatively charged ion (F – ). At pH values >7.5, saturation indices generated by the geochemical modeling program PHREEQC indicated that F solubility may be somewhat limited by the precipitation of the mineral fluorapatite [Ca 5 (PO 4 ) 3 F]. Speciation modeling of As in anoxic-Fe groundwater (iron-reducing conditions) showed that samples were supersaturated with orpiment (As 2 S 3 ), indicating that mineral precipitation may be responsible for low As concentrations observed in reducing groundwater. In contrast, U concentrations showed significant negative correlations to groundwater age and to pH. Higher U concentrations generally occurred in samples for which geochemical modeling indicated that the uncharged ternary complex Ca 2 UO 2 (CO 3 ) 3 was the dominant aqueous U species. This uncharged complex is not attracted to the charged surfaces of minerals and thus increases U solubility. Formation of Ca 2 UO 2 (CO 3 ) 3 was greater in younger groundwaters because calcium and uranium concentrations generally were lower in older groundwaters, likely due to cation-exchange processes and precipitation of the mineral calcite as groundwater pH increased. Co-precipitation of U with the calcite (CaCO 3 ) may remove U from the aqueous phase. Saturation indices indicated that the anoxic-Fe groundwaters from the Colorado River study area were supersaturated with the mineral uraninite (UO 2 ), suggesting that UO 2 precipitation may be responsible for the low concentrations of U observed in these samples. Concentrations of strontium, which exists primarily in a cationic form (Sr 2+ ), were not significantly correlated with either groundwater age or pH. Strontium concentrations showed a strong positive correlation with total dissolved solids (TDS). Dissolved constituents, such as Sr, that interact with mineral surfaces through outer-sphere complexation become increasingly soluble with increasing TDS concentrations of groundwater. Boron concentrations also showed a significant positive correlation with TDS, indicating the B may interact to a large degree with mineral surfaces through outer-sphere complexation.

California↗

USGS2019

Groundwater movement and interaction with surface water near the confluence of the Platte and Elkhorn rivers, Nebraska, 2016–18

The State of Nebraska requires a sustainable balance between long-term water supplies and uses of groundwater and surface water and requires Natural Resources Districts to include the effect of groundwater use on surface-water systems as part of their respective integrated management plans. Recent droughts in Nebraska (2000–6; 2012–13) have amplified concerns about the long-term sustainability of groundwater and surface-water resources in the state, and concerns about the effect of groundwater irrigation on both streamflow and the water supplies needed to meet wildlife, recreational, and municipal needs. The lower Platte River provides nearly 100 percent of drinking-water supplies to Lincoln, Nebraska, 40 to 60 percent of drinking-water supplies to Omaha, Nebr., and critical aquatic and riparian habitat for threatened and endangered species. The Lower Platte River Basin-wide Management Plan has been jointly developed by the Nebraska Department of Natural Resources and seven Natural Resources Districts to address some of these concerns by managing groundwater and surface-water resources conjunctively. To sustain flows in the lower Platte River that are needed for municipal water supplies, water managers have proposed projects aimed at temporary storage of surface water in upstream parts of the basin to mitigate periods of low flow in the lower Platte River. To increase scientific understanding and provide support for any potential future streamflow augmentation projects, the Papio-Missouri River Natural Resources District, the Lower Platte North Natural Resources District, and the Nebraska Department of Natural Resources, in cooperation with the U.S. Geological Survey, initiated this study to examine groundwater/surface-water interaction along the lower Platte and Elkhorn Rivers upstream from their confluence. The study design described herein focused on understanding seasonal characteristics of groundwater movement and interaction with surface water during periods of high groundwater demand (June through August) and low groundwater demand (all other months). Understanding how groundwater movement and interaction with surface water are affected by streamflow conditions and local groundwater demand is critical to the development of any streamflow augmentation project intended to sustain streamflow and mitigate periods of low flow in the lower Platte River. The characteristics of groundwater movement and interaction with surface water are affected by hydrologic and local climatic conditions. For the study area, 2016–18 conditions can be broadly characterized as above normal precipitation. The flows measured at the Elkhorn River at Waterloo, Nebr., streamflow-gaging station (U.S. Geological Survey station 06800500) were above the long-term median, and the streamflow of the Platte River near Leshara, Nebr., streamflow-gaging station (06796500) remained normal or slightly above normal for the duration of this study. Continuous streamflow and water-level data were interpreted to examine differences in groundwater movement and interaction with surface water between the Platte and Elkhorn Rivers during high and low groundwater demand periods. Although the streamflow for the Platte and Elkhorn Rivers and their tributaries was less during the high groundwater demand period, the hydraulic gradient along a transect of recorder wells was identical (0.0012 foot per foot) during the high and low groundwater demand synoptic water-level and streamflow surveys. The hydraulic gradient between the Platte and Elkhorn Rivers generally remained between 0.0011 and 0.0012 foot per foot. It can be inferred that the hydraulic gradient, which is the only temporally variable factor in Darcy’s Law, is consistent throughout the study period and that groundwater flow does not vary appreciably along this transect. The northern part of the study area (north of the transect of recorder wells) has consistent groundwater and tributary flow from Big Slough, Rawhide Creek (Old Channel), and Rawhide Creek for low and high groundwater demand periods. In the southern part of the study area (south of the transect of recorder wells), tributary flow is more variable and dependent on local groundwater demand and flow conditions of the Platte River. Small decreases (less than 2 feet) in the groundwater levels, such as those measured during the high groundwater demand period, can have substantial changes in the streamflow in an unnamed tributary to the Elkhorn River. The streamflow measured during the high groundwater demand synoptic water-level and streamflow survey had decreased by nearly a factor of 20 when compared to the low groundwater demand period. The volume of groundwater discharge received by the Elkhorn River was estimated by examining the changes in streamflow between measurement locations. Streamflow measurements indicate that the groundwater discharge received by the Elkhorn River in the southern part of the study area was seasonably variable, making it difficult if not impossible to estimate an annual value. In the Elkhorn River, between the Elkhorn River at Waterloo, Nebr., streamflow-gaging station and the Q Street Bridge, streamflow measurements collected during the low groundwater demand period indicated a gain of 80 cubic feet per second, which is comparable to the gain estimated using aerial thermal infrared imagery and water temperature data. Streamflow measurements collected during the high groundwater demand period indicate a loss of 80 cubic feet per second across this same reach. In assessing water supply conditions in the lower Platte River system, the term “loss” in reference to streamflow in the Elkhorn River should be used with caution. Most likely, flow from the Elkhorn River which is “lost” to the groundwater system will later discharge to surface water closer to the confluence of the Platte and Elkhorn Rivers as underflow. A calibrated groundwater flow model of the study area likely is required to predict the fate of this water and to quantify groundwater discharge during varying hydrologic conditions along this reach. Aerial thermal infrared imagery indicated that much of the groundwater discharge in the southern part of the study area is focused across a 3-mile reach where the Elkhorn River turns southwest, perpendicular to the regional groundwater flow direction. Points of focused groundwater discharge were not detected with aerial thermal infrared imagery, indicating that groundwater discharge is diffuse rather than concentrated at focused points. Temperature-based streambed flux estimates indicated that strong regional groundwater gradients are not driving groundwater discharge and hyporheic flow is the dominant groundwater/surface-water exchange process.

Nebraska↗

USGS2014

Simulation of groundwater flow in the Edwards-Trinity and related aquifers in the Pecos County region, Texas

The Edwards-Trinity aquifer is a vital groundwater resource for agricultural, industrial, and public supply uses in the Pecos County region of western Texas. The U.S. Geological Survey completed a comprehensive, integrated analysis of available hydrogeologic data to develop a numerical groundwater-flow model of the Edwards-Trinity and related aquifers in the study area in parts of Brewster, Jeff Davis, Pecos, and Reeves Counties. The active model area covers about 3,400 square miles of the Pecos County region of Texas west of the Pecos River, and its boundaries were defined to include the saturated areas of the Edwards-Trinity aquifer. The model is a five-layer representation of the Pecos Valley, Edwards-Trinity, Dockum, and Rustler aquifers. The Pecos Valley aquifer is referred to as the alluvial layer, and the Edwards-Trinity aquifer is divided into layers representing the Edwards part of the Edwards-Trinity aquifer and the Trinity part of the Edwards-Trinity aquifer, respectively. The calibration period of the simulation extends from 1940 to 2010. Simulated hydraulic heads generally were in good agreement with observed values; 1,684 out of 2,860 (59 percent) of the simulated values were within 25 feet of the observed value. The average root mean square error value of hydraulic head for the Edwards-Trinity aquifer was 34.2 feet, which was approximately 4 percent of the average total observed change in groundwater-level altitude (groundwater level). Simulated spring flow representing Comanche Springs exhibits a pattern similar to observed spring flow. Independent geochemical modeling corroborates results of simulated groundwater flow that indicates groundwater in the Edwards-Trinity aquifer in the Leon-Belding and Fort Stockton areas is a mixture of recharge from the Barilla and Davis Mountains and groundwater that has upwelled from the Rustler aquifer. The model was used to simulate groundwater-level altitudes resulting from prolonged pumping to evaluate sustainability of current and projected water-use demands. Each of three scenarios utilized a continuation of the calibrated model. Scenario 1 extended recent (2008) irrigation and nonirrigation pumping values for a 30-year period from 2010 to 2040. Projected groundwater-level changes in and around the Fort Stockton area under scenario 1 change little from current conditions, indicating that the groundwater system is near equilibrium with respect to recent (2008) pumping stress. Projected groundwater-level declines in the eastern part of the model area ranging from 5.0 to 15.0 feet are likely the result of nonequilibrium conditions associated with recent increases in pumping after a prolonged water-level recovery period of little or no pumping. Projected groundwater-level declines (from 15.0 to 31.0 feet) occurred in localized areas by the end of scenario 1 in the Leon-Belding area. Scenario 2 evaluated the effects of extended recent (2008) pumping rates as assigned in scenario 1 with year-round maximum permitted pumping rates in the Belding area. Results of scenario 2 are similar in water-level decline and extent as those of scenario 1. The extent of the projected groundwater-level decline in the range from 5.0 to 15.0 feet in the Leon-Belding irrigation area expanded slightly (about a 2-percent increase) from that of scenario 1. Maximum projected groundwater-level declines in the Leon-Belding irrigation area were approximately 31.3 feet in small isolated areas. Scenario 3 evaluated the effects of periodic increases in pumping rates over the 30-year extended period. Results of scenario 3 are similar to those of scenario 2 in terms of the areas of groundwater-level decline; however, the maximum projected groundwater-level decline increased to approximately 34.5 feet in the Leon-Belding area, and the extent of the decline was larger in area (about a 17-percent increase) than that of scenario 2. Additionally, the area of projected groundwater-level declines in the eastern part of the model area increased from that of scenario 2—two individual areas of decline coalesced into one larger area. The localized nature of the projected groundwater-level declines is a reflection of the high degree of fractured control on storage and hydraulic conductivity in the Edwards-Trinity aquifer. Additionally, the finding that simulated spring flow is highly dependent on the transient nature of hydraulic heads in the underlying aquifer indicates the importance of adequately understanding and characterizing the entire groundwater system.

Texas↗

USGS2021

Connectivity of Mojave Desert tortoise populations—Management implications for maintaining a viable recovery network

Executive Summary The historic distribution of Mojave desert tortoises ( Gopherus agassizii ) was relatively continuous across the range, and the importance of tortoise habitat outside of designated tortoise conservation areas (TCAs) to recovery has long been recognized for its contributions to supporting gene flow between TCAs and to minimizing impacts and edge effects within TCAs. However, connectivity of Mojave desert tortoise populations has become a concern because of recent and proposed development of large tracts of desert tortoise habitat that cross, fragment, and surround designated conservation areas. This paper summarizes the underlying concepts and importance of connectivity for Mojave desert tortoise populations by reviewing current information on connectivity and providing information to managers for maintaining or enhancing desert tortoise population connectivity as they consider future proposals for development and management actions. Maintaining an ecological network for the Mojave desert tortoise, with a system of core habitats (TCAs) connected by linkages, is necessary to support demographically viable populations and long-term gene flow within and between TCAs. There are four points for wildlife and land-management agencies to consider when making decisions that could affect connectivity of Mojave desert tortoise populations (for example, in updating actions in resource management plans or amendments that could help maintain or restore functional connectivity in light of the latest information): Management of all desert tortoise habitat for persistence and connectivity . Desert tortoise populations continue to decline within most TCAs, and it is unlikely that trends are better in populations outside protected areas. Fragmentation exacerbates negative population trends by breaking large continuous populations into smaller isolated populations. Connectivity within large populations can enhance resilience to localized disturbances due to rescue by neighboring individuals. In contrast, smaller fragmented populations are resistant to rescue by their isolation and thus could suffer irreversible declines to extirpation from a variety of threats and stochastic events. Enhanced threat reduction to reverse declines within TCAs and to maintain occupied habitat in the surrounding matrix would help reduce the variability in population growth rates and improve the resilience of protected populations even while implementing efforts to improve connectivity. Each TCA has unique strengths and weaknesses regarding its ability to support minimum sustainable populations based on areal extent and its ability to support population increases based on landscape connection with adjacent populations. Considering how proposed projects (inside or outside of TCAs) affect connectivity and the ability of TCAs to support at least 5,000 adult tortoises (the numerical goal for each TCA) could help managers to maintain the resilience of TCAs to population declines. The same project, in an alternative location, could have very different impacts on local and regional populations. For example, within the habitat matrix surrounding TCAs, narrowly delineated corridors may not allow for natural population dynamics if they do not accommodate overlapping home ranges along most of their widths so that tortoises reside, grow, find mates, and produce offspring that can replace older tortoises. In addition, most habitat outside TCAs may receive more surface disturbance than habitat within TCAs. Therefore, managing the entire remaining matrix of desert tortoise habitat for permeability may be better than delineating fixed corridors. These concepts apply, especially given uncertainty about long-term condition of habitat, within and outside of TCAs under a changing climate. Ultimately, questions such as “ What are the critical linkages that need to be protected ?” could be better framed as “ How can we manage the remaining habitat matrix in ways that sustain ecological processes and habitat suitability for special status species ?” Land-management decisions made in the context of the latter question may be more conducive to maintenance of a functional ecological network. Limitations on landscape-level disturbance across habitat managed for the desert tortoise Clearly delineating habitat linkages and differentiating them from non-delineated areas by the uses that are permitted or prohibited within them by specific management guidelines can help achieve functional connectivity. Such guidelines would be most effective if they considered and accounted for all surface disturbances (for example, temporary disturbances such as fiberoptic lines or off-highway vehicle routes, right-of-ways, utility-scale solar development, urbanization) to the extent possible. A weighted framework that varies with the permanence or severity of the disturbance, and can be additive to quantify cumulative effects, could be useful (Xiong, 2020). For example, minor roads can alter tortoise movements independently of other features (Peaden and others, 2017; Hromada and others, 2020), but if the isolated dirt road is accompanied by a powerline that encourages raven predation (Xiong, 2020), then the two features together may be additive. Ignoring minor or temporary disturbance on the landscape could result in a cumulatively large impact that is not explicitly acknowledged (Goble, 2009); therefore, understanding and quantifying all surface disturbance on a given landscape is prudent. In California, the Bureau of Land Management established 0.1–1.0 percent caps on new surface-disturbance for TCAs and mapped linkages that address the issues described in number 1 of this list. Nevada, Utah, and Arizona currently do not have surface-disturbance limits. Limits comparable to those in the Desert Renewable Energy Conservation Plan (DRECP) would be 0.5 percent within TCAs and 1 percent within the linkages modeled by Averill-Murray and others (2013). Limits in some areas of California within the Desert Renewable Energy Conservation Plan, such as Ivanpah Valley, are more restrictive, at 0.1 percent. Continuity across the state line in Nevada could be achieved with comparable limits in the adjacent portion of Ivanpah Valley, as well as the Greater Trout Canyon Translocation Area and the Stump Springs Regional Augmentation Site. These more restrictive limits would help protect remaining habitat in the major interstate connectivity pathway through Ivanpah Valley and focal areas of population augmentation that provide additional population connectivity along the western flank of the Spring Mountains. In a recent study that analyzed 13 years of desert tortoise monitoring data, nearly all desert tortoise observations were at sites in which 5 percent or less of the surrounding landscape within 1 kilometer was disturbed (Carter and others, 2020a). To help maintain tortoise habitability and permeability across all other non-conservation-designated tortoise habitat, all surface disturbance could be limited to less than 5-percent development per square kilometer because the 5-percent threshold for development is the point at which tortoise occupation drops precipitously (Carter and others, 2020a). However, although individual desert tortoises were observed at development levels up to 5 percent, we do not know the fitness or reproductive characteristics of these individuals. This level of development also may not allow for long-term persistence of healthy populations that are of adequate size needed for demographic or functional connectivity; therefore, a conservative interpretation suggests that, ideally, development could be lower. Lower development levels would be particularly useful in areas within the upper 5th percentile of connectivity values modeled by Gray and others (2019). Reducing ancillary threats in places where connectivity is restricted to narrow strips of habitat, for example, narrow mountain passes or vegetated strips between solar development, could enhance the functionality of these vulnerable linkages. In such areas, maintaining multiple, redundant linkages could further enhance overall connectivity. Minimization of mortality from roads and maximization of passage under roads . Roads pose a significant threat to the long-term persistence of local tortoise populations, and roads of high traffic volume lead to severe population declines, which ultimately fragments populations farther away from the roads. Three points (a.–c.) pertain to reducing direct mortality of tortoises on the many paved roads that cross desert tortoise habitat and to maintaining a minimal level of permeability across these roads: Tortoise-exclusion fencing tied into culverts, underpasses, overpasses, or other passages below roads in desert tortoise habitat, would limit vehicular mortality of tortoises and provide opportunities for movement across the roads. Installation of shade structures on the habitat side of fences installed in areas with narrow population-depletion zones would limit overheating of tortoises that may pace the fence. Passages below highways could be maintained or retrofitted to ensure safe tortoise access, for example, by filling eroded drop-offs or modifying erosion-control features such as rip-rap to make them safer and more passable for tortoises. Wildlife management agencies could work with transportation departments to develop construction standards that are consistent with hydrologic/erosion management goals, while also incorporating a design and materials consistent with tortoise survival and passage and make the standards widely available. The process would be most effective if the status of passages was regularly monitored and built into management plans. Healthy tortoise populations along fenced highways could be supported by ensuring that land inside tortoise-exclusion fences is not so degraded that it leads to degradation of tortoise habitat outside the exclusion areas. For example, severe invasive plant infestations inside a highway exclusion could cause an increase of invasive plants outside the exclusion area and degrade habitat; therefore, invasive plants inside road rights of way could be mown or treated with herbicide to limit their spread into adjacent tortoise habitat and minimize the risk of these plants carrying wildfires into adjacent habitat. Adaptation of management based on new information . Future research will continue to build upon and refine models related to desert tortoise population connectivity and develop new ones. New models could consider landscape levels of development and be constructed such that they share common foundations to support future synthesis efforts. If model development was undertaken in partnership with entities that are responsible for management of desert tortoise habitat, it would facilitate incorporation of current and future modeling results into their land management decisions. There are specific topics that may be clarified with further evaluation: The effects of climate change on desert tortoise habitat, distribution, and population connectivity; The effects of large-scale fires, especially within repeatedly burned habitat, on desert tortoise distribution and population connectivity; The ability of solar energy facilities or similar developments to support tortoise movement and presence by leaving washes intact; leaving native vegetation intact whenever possible, or if not possible, mowing the site, allowing vegetation to re-sprout, and managing weeds; and allowing tortoises to occupy the sites; and The design and frequency of underpasses necessary to maintain functional demographic and genetic connectivity across linear features, like highways.

Arizona, California, Nevada↗

USGS1998

Analytical methods, numerical modeling, and monitoring strategies for evaluating the effects of ground-water withdrawals on unconfined aquifers in the New Jersey Coastal Plain

Analytical and numerical solutions of ground-water withdrawals in the unconfined part of the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system of the Coastal Plain of New Jersey were evaluated for their usefulness in predicting the area of influence of a pumped well and in determining hydraulic characteristics of an aquifer. Additionally, simulations of ground-water withdrawal using a finite-difference model provided information on the ways in which prudent well-location strategies can disperse the local effects of withdrawal over a larger part of an aquifer system. The design of a monitoring network that is sensitive to the ground-water hydraulics of streams and wetlands of the Coastal Plain of New Jersey also was considered for its utility in providing hydrologic data necessary to establish the baseline hydrologic conditions near wetlands and streams and in signaling when ground-water levels are being adversely affected by withdrawals elsewhere in the system. The application of methods based on the Theis analytical solution to ground-water flow in unconfined aquifers can lead to erroneous estimates of the size of the area of influence generated by ground-water withdrawals. Analysis oftime-drawdown data from an unconfined aquifer system are best evaluated by means of the Neuman solution, which accounts for the effects of gravity drainage; however, the pumped well must be far enough from streams so that ground water is not drawn from nearby streams. Time-drawdown data from a test well in Winslow County, N.J., were analyzed by means of the Neuman solution. Results indicate that the aquifer has a relatively high vertical to horizontal anisotropy of 1:198, and a specific yield of 0.028, an indication that the area of influence of a pumped well at the test site would be relatively large. Results from a finite-difference ground-water-flow model of the northeastern part of the Mullica River Basin near Chesilhurst, N.J., show that the area influenced by a long-term withdrawal is best estimated from a steady state ground-water-flow analysis that includes the effects of average areal recharge. Withdrawal simulations indicate an order-of-magnitude difference between the size of the area of influence generated from a 3-day (72 hour) withdrawal and the size of the area produced under steady-state conditions. An aquifer characterized by a low specific yield will cause the area of influence to extend farther away from the pumped well. The contributing area of flow to the pumped well includes areas on the water table that would, under natural conditions, be incorporated into the contributing areas of flow to streams. Ground water that is drawn to a pumped well is diverted from nearby streams; the withdrawal decreases the size of the contributing areas of flow to streams by an amount equal to the contributing area of flow to the well. Withdrawals made from a well close to a stream divert ground water that would, under natural conditions, flow to the stream. The diverted ground water causes the area of influence of the well to be smaller than it would if the well were far from the stream. Water-table declines caused by withdrawals near streams are, to some degree, mitigated by ground-water diversion from streams. However, the withdrawals can significantly reduce ground-water seepage to nearby streams, especially along stream reaches and wetlands close to the well. Alternatively, these effects can be dispersed over a large part of the aquifer if wells are located on surface-water divides. Measurements of seasonal water-level fluctuations in the Mullica River Basin indicate that the greatest fluctuations in water levels are found in upland areas, where the average fluctuation is 3.4 feet. Fluctuations in hydraulic head in the wetland areas averages 1.3 feet. The bimodal average of ranges in water levels show that upland areas are more sensitive to recharge than lowland areas. The pattern of yearly mean water levels fluctuates irregularly about a long-term mean value. Abnormally low or high yearly average values that are brought on by periods of drought or excess recharge are short lived; over time, hydrologic conditions shift back to average levels under natural conditions. Wetland areas in the New Jersey Coastal Plain are characterized by ground-water seepage into wide, shallow depressions. Periods of inundation are longest in the deepest part of the depression, whereas inundation of areas near the fringes of wetlands due to ground-water seepage is only seasonal. The seepage face in the fringe areas expand and contract in response to seasonal variation in water-table elevation and in response to precipitation. Values of the aquifer storage coefficient and transmissivity can, in some cases, be determined by use of hydraulic head or streamflow recession analysis as an alternative to aquifer testing. The recession curves developed from hydro graphs of Middle Branch and McDonalds Branch in the New Jersey Coastal Plain indicate that the aquifer near McDonalds Branch has about 2.6 times the storage capacity of the aquifer adjacent to Middle Branch; this finding is consistent with the relatively small ranges of water-level changes measured in McDonalds Branch compared to those measured in Middle Branch.

New Jersey↗

USGS1993

Potential for ground-water contamination from movement of wastewater through the unsaturated zone, upper Mojave River Basin, California

Septic-tank wastewater disposed in 30-foot-deep seepage pits (dry wells) at 46,000 residences is estimated to equal 18 percent of the natural recharge to the sole-source aquifer in the rapidly developing upper Mojave River Basin (Victor Valley) in the high desert northeast of Los Angeles. Vertical rates of movement of the wastewater wetting front through the unsaturated zone at three newly occupied residences ranged from 0.07 to 1.0 foot per day. These rates translate to traveltimes of several months to several years for the wastewater wetting front to reach the water table and imply that wastewater from many disposal systems already has reached the water table, which averages about 150 feet below land surface in the Victor Valley. As wastewater percolates from seepage pits into the adjacent unsaturated zone, the nitrogen present in reduced form is rapidly converted to nitrate. Analyses on soil-core extracts and soil moisturefrom suction lysimeters installed beneath the seepage pits at eight residences showed that nitrate concentrations and nitrate/ chloride ratios generally become lower with increasing depth. The intervals of greatest decline seemed to coincide with finer soil texture or were near the water table. Nitrate-reducing bacteria were tested for and found to be present in soil cores from two residences. Sparse nitrogen-15 data from suction lysimeters at one of these residences, where thenitrate concentration decreased by about one-half at a depth of 200 feet, indicate that the nitrate decline was accompanied by nitrogen-15 enrichment in the residual nitrate with an isotope-separation factor of about -10 permil. Despite the potential input of abundant nitrogen with the domestic wastewater recharge, nitrate concentrations in the area's ground water are generally low. The absence of high nitrate concentrations in the ground water is consistent with the existence of denitrification, a microbial nitrogen-removal mechanism, as wastewater moves through the thick unsaturated zone and mixes with the ground water. The observed low nitrate concentrations also could be explained by a dilution by vertical mixing in the saturated zone and retention of the wastewater in the unsaturated zone. Results of a single-cell mixing model that allows nitrate from wastewater to be mixedinstantaneously with the underlying ground water suggest that measurable increases in nitrate concentration should be expected within 5 to 10 years after wastewater reaches the water table if the mixing depth is less than 100 feet. Although high fecal-coliform densities were measured in wastewater from septic tanks and seepage pits, removal of these enteric bacteria in the unsaturated zone is very effective, as was indicated by their absence in soil only a few feet from the seepage pits. In testing for organic priority pollutants in wastewater, 17 of 85 compounds were detected. Most compounds detected were present in low concentrations, except at one residence where the concentration of three compounds exceeded 100 micrograms per liter. These high concentrations may be a consequence of disposal practices unique to this residence. Extractable organic priority pollutants were not found in any soil cores taken adjacent to seepage pits and, therefore, are not of concern.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS2016

Groundwater quality, age, and susceptibility and vulnerability to nitrate contamination with linkages to land use and groundwater flow, Upper Black Squirrel Creek Basin, Colorado, 2013

The Upper Black Squirrel Creek Basin is located about 25 kilometers east of Colorado Springs, Colorado. The primary aquifer is a productive section of unconsolidated deposits that overlies bedrock units of the Denver Basin and is a critical resource for local water needs, including irrigation, domestic, and commercial use. The primary aquifer also serves an important regional role by the export of water to nearby communities in the Colorado Springs area. Changes in land use and development over the last decade, which includes substantial growth of subdivisions in the Upper Black Squirrel Creek Basin, have led to uncertainty regarding the potential effects to water quality throughout the basin. In response, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Cherokee Metropolitan District, El Paso County, Meridian Service Metropolitan District, Mountain View Electric Association, Upper Black Squirrel Creek Groundwater Management District, Woodmen Hills Metropolitan District, Colorado State Land Board, and Colorado Water Conservation Board, and the stakeholders represented in the Groundwater Quality Study Committee of El Paso County conducted an assessment of groundwater quality and groundwater age with an emphasis on characterizing nitrate in the groundwater. Groundwater-quality samples were collected from 50 randomly selected wells between May and June 2013. The samples were analyzed for major ions, nutrients, dissolved gases, tritium ( 3 H), chlorofluorocarbons (CFC-11, CFC-12, and CFC-113), and fuel products (such as benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylenes). None of the groundwater samples exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) National Primary Drinking Water Regulations for primary maximum contaminant levels (MCL) for major ions. Secondary maximum contaminant levels, which are not health concerns and affect mainly taste, color, or odor of the water, were observed in rare instances for pH (2 samples), chloride (1 sample), iron (3 samples), and manganese (8 samples). The secondary maximum contaminant level for total dissolved solids was also exceeded for two samples. Nitrate (nitrite plus nitrate as nitrogen in groundwater) was elevated above the estimated background concentration of natural recharge waters of 1 milligram per liter (mg/L) in 44 of the 50 wells sampled and showed a median concentration of 5.4 mg/L. Nitrate concentrations were above the MCL of 10 mg/L in 5 of the 50 wells sampled and above half of the EPA MCL (5 mg/L) in 27 of the 50 wells sampled, which included samples above the MCL. Dissolved-oxygen concentrations exceeded 0.5 mg/L in 95 percent of reported values (40 of 42 samples) and exceeded 2.0 mg/L in 90 percent of reported values (38 of 42 samples). The oxidized conditions observed in most areas indicate that nitrate from fertilizers and animal or human waste was geochemically stable and could persist in the groundwater for decades or perhaps longer. A historical analysis of median nitrate concentrations over nearly three decades showed an increase in nitrate of approximately 1 mg/L from 4.3 to 5.4 mg/L, although the increase was not determined to be significantly different using nonparametric statistical methods. Major-ion data indicate that groundwater representative of the primary aquifer was classified as calcium-sodium bicarbonate type water. Other water samples from wells located mainly along the periphery of the primary aquifer had cation-anion compositions consistent with distinct water sources, including groundwater contributions from the underlying bedrock aquifers. The areas with differentiable water sources were located mainly where alluvial deposits were thin and geologic contacts to the underlying bedrock aquifers were relatively shallow. Nitrate concentrations in the groundwater were evaluated for relations to land use. An agricultural region was defined using a sequence of land satellite imagery. Groundwater flow directions interpreted from median water-table elevations measured from 2000 to 2013 were used in conjunction with cropland locations to define the agricultural region boundaries by encompassing potential pathways of nitrate transport in the groundwater from nitrogen-based fertilizers. A statistically significant higher median nitrate concentration was observed for areas inside the agricultural region (6.7 mg/L) compared to areas outside the agricultural region (2.3 mg/L), although median concentrations in both areas were below the MCL (10 mg/L). Median nitrate concentration was also significantly greater in land parcels with septic use (4.9 mg/L) compared to nonseptic parcels (1.7 mg/L). In general, agriculture or septic use was identified as the primary source of nitrate, depending on location, while commercial, county, grazing, and residential land uses were generally secondary sources of nitrate. Apparent groundwater ages were estimated from chlorofluorocarbons (CFC-11, CFC-12, and CFC-113) and tritium ( 3 H) data using models that assumed piston flow and binary mixing (dilution of a young component with old, tracer-free water). The mean and median groundwater ages were about 30 years and the standard deviation was 6 years, indicating that most groundwater in the primary aquifer was “young” water that had recharged to the aquifer over the last few decades (post-1950s). The median fraction of young water was about 71 percent, and the standard deviation was 29 percent. The remaining water predated the 1950s, which may have originated from deeper geologic formations or may represent slow moving groundwater within the primary aquifer. Some of the oldest groundwater ages (older than 30 years) were observed in the upper reaches of the aquifer to the northwest where the primary aquifer is thin and intersects bedrock, supporting the hypothesis of geochemically distinct groundwater entering the primary aquifer from below. Groundwater that had reached the central part of the aquifer from upgradient areas of the basin was variable in age because of differences in flow paths and travel velocities. The groundwater age analysis showed that current (2013) land-use practices could affect water quality over decades to come, and that responses to remedial actions could be slow, especially for constituents, such as nitrate, that are stable under oxidized conditions. Fuel products (including acetone, benzene, diisopropyl ether, ethylbenzene, methyl acetate, methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), methyl tert-pentyl ether, m- + p-xylene, o-xylene, tert-amyl alcohol, tert-butyl alcohol, tert-butyl ethyl ether, and toluene) were analyzed in groundwater from 49 of the 50 wells. Water from seven sites had detections for fuel compounds; all concentrations were below MCL. The results provided assurance of water quality and a valuable baseline to evaluate future trends of fuel constituents as the region is further developed. Probability maps were developed from logistic regression models to examine the likelihood that nitrate concentrations in groundwater exceeded specified levels. Susceptibility analysis examined relations between mid-level (5.0 mg/L) nitrate concentrations and climatic, hydrologic, and geologic variables; the significant variables were identified as depth to groundwater, soil organic matter, and soil water storage to 25-centimeter (cm) depth. The vulnerability assessments included natural factors driving susceptibility but also human factors related to land use and septic use. Vulnerability to low-level (2.5 mg/L) nitrate was related to depth to groundwater, septic zoning, and soil organic matter. The results highlighted that septic zoning affected low-level nitrate concentrations. Vulnerability to mid-level (5.0 mg/L) nitrate was examined using all 50 samples and also with two data outliers removed, which showed relatively high nitrate concentrations but also anomalous water chemistry or were located beyond the primary study area. Vulnerability to mid-level (5.0 mg/L) nitrate using all 50 samples was related to depth to groundwater, land use, septic use within a 500-meter (m) radius, soil water storage to a 25-cm depth, soil organic matter, and whether a location was within the agricultural region. The mid-level (5.0 mg/L) vulnerability model using 48 samples (two outliers removed) produced the best overall fit and was related to the same variables as when using all samples except septic use. The results for mid-level vulnerability provided additional support that septic use was associated with low levels of nitrate in the groundwater. Soil properties and land use were identified as the main drivers of moderate nitrate concentrations. Probabilities of exceeding low-level nitrate concentrations were high in most areas with the lowest probabilities usually to the northwest along thin geologic deposits in the upper part of the basin. The results of this investigation offer the foundational information needed for developing best management practices to mitigate nitrate contamination, basic concepts on water quality to aid public education, and information to guide regulatory measures if policy makers determine this is warranted. Science-based decision making will require continued monitoring and analysis of water quality in the future.

Colorado↗

USGS1991

Hydrogeology and ground-water flow in the carbonate rocks of the Little Lehigh Creek basin, Lehigh County, Pennsylvania

The Little Lehigh Creek basin is underlain mainly by a complex assemblage of highly-deformed Cambrian and Ordovician carbonate rocks. The Leithsville Formation, Allentown Dolomite, Beekmantown Group, and Jacksonburg Limestone act as a single hydrologic unit. Ground water moves through fractures and other secondary openings and generally is under water-table conditions. Median annual ground-water discharge (base flow) to Little Lehigh Creek near Allentown (station 01451500) during 1946-86 was 12.97 inches or 82 percent of streamflow. Average annual recharge for 1975-83 was 21.75 inches. Groundwater and surface-water divides do not coincide in the basin. Ground-water underflow from the Little Lehigh Creek basin to the Cedar Creek basin in 1987 was 4 inches per year. A double-mass curve analysis of the relation of cumulative precipitation at Allentown to the flow of Schantz Spring for 1956-84 showed that cessation of quarry pumping and development of ground water for public supply in the Schantz Spring basin did not affect the flow of Schantz Spring. Ground-water flow in the Little Lehigh Creek basin was simulated using a finite-difference, two-dimensional computer model. The geologic units in the modeled area were simulated as a single water-table aquifer. The 134-squaremile area of carbonate rocks between the Lehigh River and Sacony Creek was modeled to include the natural hydrologic boundaries of the ground-water-flow system. The ground-water-flow model was calibrated under steady-state conditions using 1975-83 average recharge, evapotranspiration, and pumping rates. Each geologic unit was assigned a different hydraulic conductivity. Initial aquifer hydraulic conductivity was estimated from specific-capacity data. The average (1975-83) water budget for the Little Lehigh Creek basin was simulated. The simulated base flow from the carbonate rocks of the Little Lehigh Creek basin above gaging station 01451500 is 11.85 inches per year. The simulated ground-water underflow from the Little Lehigh Creek basin to the Cedar Creek basin is 4.04 inches per year. For steady-state calibration, the root-mean-squared difference between observed and simulated heads was 21.19 feet. The effects of increased ground-water development on base flow and underflow out of the Little Lehigh Creek basin for average and drought conditions were simulated by locating a hypothetical well field in different parts of the basin. Steady-state simulations were used to represent equilibrium conditions, which would be the maximum expected long-term effect. Increased ground-water development was simulated as hypothetical well fields pumping at the rate of 15, 25, and 45 million gallons per day in addition to existing ground-water withdrawals. Four hypothetical well fields were located near and away from Little Lehigh Creek in upstream and downstream areas. The effects of pumping a well field in different parts of the Little Lehigh Creek basin were compared. Pumping a well field located near the headwaters of Little Lehigh Creek and away from the stream would have greatest effect on inducing underflow from the Sacony Greek basin and the least effect on reducing base flow and underflow to the Ceda^r Creek basin. Pumping a well field located near the headwaters of Little Leh|igh Creek near the stream would have less impact on inducing underflow from|the Sacony Creek basin and a greater impact on reducing the base flow of Little Lehigh Creek because more of the pumpage would come from diverted base flow. Pumping a well field located in the downstream area of the Little Lehigh Creek basin away from the stream would have the greatest effect on the underflow to the Cedar Creek basin. Pumping a well field located in the downstream area of the Little Lehigh Creek basin near the stream would have the greatest effect on reducing the base flow of Little Lehigh Cteek. Model simulations show that groundwater withdrawals do not cause a proportional reduction in base flow. Under average conditions, ground-water withdrawals are equal to 48 to 70 percent of simulated base-flow reductions; under drought conditions, ground-water withdrawals are equal to 35 to 73 percent of simulated base-flow reductions. The hydraulic effects of pumping largely depend on well location. In the Little Lehigh basin, surface-water and ground-water divides do not coincide, and ground-water development, especially near surface-water divides, can cause ground-water divides to shift and induce ground-water underflow from adjacent basins. Large-scale ground-water pumping in a basin may not produce expected reductions of base flow in that basin because of shifts in the ground-water divide; however, such shifts can reduce base flow in adjacent surface-water basins.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS2022

Wind River subbasin restoration: Annual Report of U.S. Geological Survey activities January 2020 through December 2020

We sampled juvenile wild Steelhead Trout Oncorhynchus mykiss in headwater streams of the Wind River, WA, to characterize population attributes and investigate life-history metrics, particularly migratory patterns, and early life-stage survival. We used passive integrated transponder (PIT) tagging and a series of instream PIT-tag interrogation systems (PTISs) to track juveniles and adults. The Wind River subbasin is considered a wild Steelhead refuge by Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW). No hatchery Steelhead Trout have been released in the Wind River subbasin since 1997, and hatchery adults are estimated at less than one percent of spawners in most years. Over twenty years of Steelhead Trout status and trend monitoring and research in the subbasin is contributing to understanding of population response to numerous restoration actions in the subbasin, including removal of Hemlock Dam from Trout Creek in 2009, which had an outdated adult ladder and contributed to increased water temperatures reducing performance of juvenile Steelhead Trout. Data from our study, and companion work by Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife, are contributing to Bonneville Power Administration’s (BPA) Research, Monitoring, and Evaluation (RM&E) Program Strategy of Fish Population Status Monitoring (https://www.cbfish.org/ProgramStrategy.mvc/Index). Specifically, this work addresses the substrategies of 1) Assessing the Status and Trends of Diversity of Natural Origin Fish Populations and Uncertainties Research regarding differing life histories of a wild Steelhead Trout population, 2) Assessing the Status and Trend of Adult Natural Origin Fish Populations, and 3) Monitoring and Evaluating the Effectiveness of Tributary Habitat Actions Relative to Environmental, Physical, or Biological Performance Objectives. During summer and fall 2020, we PIT-tagged 1,415 Steelhead parr (age-0 and age-1) in the Trout Creek and upper Wind River watersheds. Recaptures and detections of PIT-tagged Steelhead Trout parr happened through repeat headwater sampling, smolt trap operations, and instream PTISs and Columbia River PIT-tag detection infrastructure. Throughout the year, we maintained a series of six instream PTISs to monitor movement of tagged Steelhead Trout parr, smolts, and adults, providing data to population assessments, and life-cycle research and modeling. Detection data from PIT-tagged adult Steelhead Trout at PTISs allow assessment of adult escapement to tributary watersheds within the Wind River subbasin. Adult Steelhead Trout detection efficiency estimates at our primary PTIS in Trout Creek have been greater than 92 percent during eight of the past nine years and have exceeded 90% at our primary PTIS in the Wind River the past three years. Adult escapement estimates to tributary watersheds are helping evaluate the efficacy of the 2009 removal of Hemlock Dam from rkm 2.0 of Trout Creek. The dam had potential negative effects on Steelhead Trout populations in Trout Creek due to hydrologic impairment, increased temperatures, and adult passage issues. Hemlock Dam was laddered for adult passage, but not to modern standards, which likely resulted in avoidance by some adult Steelhead Trout. We continue to improve our PTISs in the Wind River subbasin. The improvements in siting and addition of grid power to the upper Wind River PTIS (site code WRU, rkm 27.6) during 2016 and 2017, and the addition of the Mine Reach site (site code MIN, rkm 36.0) have much improved PIT-tagged fish monitoring in the upper Wind River watershed. The paired PTIS design in the upper Wind River watershed (sites WRU and MIN), matches that in the Trout Creek watershed (sites TRC and TC4) and will allow comparisons of Steelhead Trout population metrics between the two watersheds as response to Hemlock Dam removal continues and future restoration efforts occur in Trout Creek. We installed two new PTISs during 2020. Both were installed downstream of our primary interrogation sites on Trout Creek and in the mainstem Wind River. We hope the two new sites will provide interrogations information that will allow us to better estimate detection efficiencies of downstream moving juvenile Steelhead Trout at the primary interrogation sites. The additional interrogations will be particularly important for those fish tagged with 9-mm PIT tags as less information from downstream locations is available from them. These sites and other status and trend data will allow evaluation of further planned restoration within the watershed, particularly that proposed for the headwaters of Trout Creek. Detections at the instream PTISs have demonstrated trends of age-0 and age-1 parr emigration from natal areas during summer and fall, in addition to the expected movement of parr and smolts in spring. We have estimated that from 15 to 51% of parr tagged as age-0 fish in headwater areas make downstream migrations at age 1 for additional rearing during both spring and fall. We have estimated that up to 27% of Steelhead Trout parr, tagged as age-1 fish, make downstream migrations during fall. These findings raise questions about where parr most successfully rear and whether migrations are density or habitat quality driven. Broader monitoring programs would give a more comprehensive understanding of juvenile Steelhead Trout production and rearing and productivity contribution. Repeat sampling at consistent locations in the subbasin has enabled assessment of juvenile Steelhead Trout growth patterns. Growth rates (relative change in weight) of age-0 PITtagged parr during summer were similar across the subbasin but lower for age-1 parr in the Trout Creek watershed than the upper Wind River watershed. Yearly relative growth for parr tagged at age-0 is similar across the subbasin. Non-native Brook Trout Salvelinus confluentus are present in the subbasin, chiefly the Trout Creek watershed, and repeat sampling has allowed us to index their prevalence. Mean percent-of-catch that is Brook Trout, at four sample sites in Trout Creek, has declined from the period 1998 – 2003 to the period 2011 – 2020. Percent-of-catch and number of Brook Trout at the Trout Creek sites from 2011 through 2020 declined, though both metrics increased in 2018. Evaluation and planning of restoration efforts are critical to ensure efficient use of resources. Assessing Steelhead Trout life history variation in the Wind River subbasin will inform research and tracking of many populations and help inform habitat restoration and water allocation planning. Movement of Steelhead Trout parr from natal areas to other rearing areas raises questions regarding juvenile abundance, origin, and habitat use within watersheds. Improved PTISs and focused PIT tagging of age-0 and age-1 Steelhead Trout parr allow investigation of such questions. Increasingly detailed viable salmonid population information, such as that provided by PIT-tagging and instream PTIS networks like those in the Wind River can provide data to inform fisheries policy and management and understand life-history strategies and limiting factors. Such efforts also provide assessment of long-term effects of habitat restoration actions such as the removal of Hemlock Dam on Trout Creek, and the proposed Stage-0 restoration effort for upper Trout Creek, which would be a large-scale effort to reset sections of stream within their floodplain, restoring connectivity and interaction with surrounding landscape.

Washington↗

USGS2003

Typing mineral deposits using their grades and tonnages in an artificial neural network

A test of the ability of a probabilistic neural network to classify deposits into types on the basis of deposit tonnage and average Cu, Mo, Ag, Au, Zn, and Pb grades is conducted. The purpose is to examine whether this type of system might serve as a basis for integrating geoscience information available in large mineral databases to classify sites by deposit type. Benefits of proper classification of many sites in large regions are relatively rapid identification of terranes permissive for deposit types and recognition of specific sites perhaps worthy of exploring further. Total tonnages and average grades of 1,137 well-explored deposits identified in published grade and tonnage models representing 13 deposit types were used to train and test the network. Tonnages were transformed by logarithms and grades by square roots to reduce effects of skewness. All values were scaled by subtracting the variable's mean and dividing by its standard deviation. Half of the deposits were selected randomly to be used in training the probabilistic neural network and the other half were used for independent testing. Tests were performed with a probabilistic neural network employing a Gaussian kernel and separate sigma weights for each class (type) and each variable (grade or tonnage). Deposit types were selected to challenge the neural network. For many types, tonnages or average grades are significantly different from other types, but individual deposits may plot in the grade and tonnage space of more than one type. Porphyry Cu, porphyry Cu-Au, and porphyry Cu-Mo types have similar tonnages and relatively small differences in grades. Redbed Cu deposits typically have tonnages that could be confused with porphyry Cu deposits, also contain Cu and, in some situations, Ag. Cyprus and kuroko massive sulfide types have about the same tonnages. Cu, Zn, Ag, and Au grades. Polymetallic vein, sedimentary exhalative Zn-Pb, and Zn-Pb skarn types contain many of the same metals. Sediment-hosted Au, Comstock Au-Ag, and low-sulfide Au-quartz vein types are principally Au deposits with differing amounts of Ag. Given the intent to test the neural network under the most difficult conditions, an overall 75% agreement between the experts and the neural network is considered excellent. Among the largestclassification errors are skarn Zn-Pb and Cyprus massive sulfide deposits classed by the neuralnetwork as kuroko massive sulfides—24 and 63% error respectively. Other large errors are the classification of 92% of porphyry Cu-Mo as porphyry Cu deposits. Most of the larger classification errors involve 25 or fewer training deposits, suggesting that some errors might be the result of small sample size. About 91% of the gold deposit types were classed properly and 98% of porphyry Cu deposits were classes as some type of porphyry Cu deposit. An experienced economic geologist would not make many of the classification errors that were made by the neural network because the geologic settings of deposits would be used to reduce errors. In a separate test, the probabilistic neural network correctly classed 93% of 336 deposits in eight deposit types when trained with presence or absence of 58 minerals and six generalized rock types. The overall success rate of the probabilistic neural network when trained on tonnage and average grades would probably be more than 90% with additional information on the presence of a few rock types.

Natural Resources Research↗

USGS2002

Ground-water flow simulation and chemical and isotopic mixing equation analysis to determine source contributions to the Missouri River alluvial aquifer in the vicinity of the Independence, Missouri, well field

The city of Independence, Missouri, operates a well field in the Missouri River alluvial aquifer. Steady-state ground-water flow simulation, particle tracking, and the use of chemical and isotopic composition of river water, ground water, and well-field pumpage in a two-component mixing equation were used to determine the source contributions of induced inflow from the Missouri River and recharge to ground water from precipitation in well-field pumpage. Steady-state flow-budget analysis for the simulation-defined zone of contribution to the Independence well field indicates that 86.7 percent of well-field pumpage is from induced inflow from the river, and 6.7 percent is from ground-water recharge from precipitation. The 6.6 percent of flow from outside the simulation-defined zone of contribution is a measure of the uncertainty of the estimation, and occurs because model cells are too large to uniquely define the actual zone of contribution. Flow-budget calculations indicate that the largest source of water to most wells is the Missouri River. Particle-tracking techniques indicate that the Missouri River supplies 82.3 percent of the water to the Independence well field, ground-water recharge from precipitation supplies 9.7 percent, and flow from outside defined zones of contribution supplies 8.0 percent. Particle tracking was used to determine the relative amounts of source water to total well-field pumpage as a function of traveltime from the source. Well-field pumpage that traveled 1 year or less from the source was 8.8 percent, with 0.6 percent from the Missouri River, none from precipitation, and 8.2 percent between starting cells. Well-field pumpage that traveled 2 years or less from the source was 10.3 percent, with 1.8 percent from the Missouri River, 0.2 percent from precipitation, and 8.3 percent between starting cells. Well-field pumpage that traveled 5 years or less from the source was 36.5 percent, with 27.1 percent from the Missouri River, 1.1 percent from precipitation, and 8.3 percent between starting cells. Well-field pumpage that traveled 10 years or less from the source was 42.7 percent, with 32.6 percent from the Missouri River, 1.8 percent from precipitation, and 8.3 percent between starting cells. Well-field pumpage that traveled 25 years or less from the source was 71.9 percent, with 58.9 percent from the Missouri River, 4.7 percent from precipitation, and 8.3 percent between starting cells. Results of chemical (calcium, sodium, iron, and fluoride) and isotopic (oxygen and hydrogen) analyses of water samples collected from the Missouri River, selected monitoring wells around the Independence well field, and combined well-field pumpage were used in a two component mixing equation to estimate the relative amount of Missouri River water in total well-field pumpage. The relative amounts of induced inflow from the Missouri River in well-field pumpage ranged from 49 percent for sodium to 80 percent for calcium, and sensitivities ranged from 0 percent for iron to plus or minus 35 percent for naturally occurring stable isotope ( 18 O). The average of all mixing equation results indicated that 61 percent of well-field pumpage was from induced inflow from the Missouri River. All methods used in the study indicate that more than one-half of the water in well-field pumpage was inflow from the Missouri River. River inflow estimates from ground-water simulation methods are larger and error values are smaller than those using chemical and isotopic data in the mixing equation, although substantial uncertainties exist for both estimation methods. Because of the complex hydrology of the aquifer near the Independence well field, the source estimates using particle tracking probably are the most reliable of the ground-water simulation methods. Mixing equation results are less reliable than those of the ground-water simulation for this study. However, more reliable results can be obtained from the mixing equation by increasing the number of samples and collecting samples for a longer period of time, and during different flow conditions. In the absence of a calibrated ground-water flow simulation, the mixing equation can provide a reasonable estimate of the sources of water to a well field at relatively low cost, if sources of error are clearly understood.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS2018

Genetic integrity, population status, and long-term viability of isolated populations of shoal bass in the upper Chattahoochee River basin, Georgia

This report characterizes the status of multiple isolated Shoal Bass ( Micropterus cataractae ) populations in the upper Chattahoochee River basin (UCRB), Georgia. The Shoal Bass, a sport fish endemic to the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River (ACF) basin, is a fluvial-specialist species considered vulnerable to local extirpations and extinction due to habitat fragmentation and introgression with non-native congeners. Perhaps one of the most isolated populations of Shoal Bass exists in a 2-km reach of Big Creek, a tributary of the Chattahoochee River located near Roswell, Georgia. Big Creek is partially contained within the Chattahoochee River National Recreation Area, although the Big Creek watershed is riddled with urban land cover. Roswell Mill Dam limits the upstream extent of the Shoal Bass population at Big Creek, and the downstream extent is presumably limited to the confluence of Big Creek and the Chattahoochee River. This reach of the Chattahoochee River is thermally depressed because of coldwater releases from Lake Lanier, and is considered unsuitable for Shoal Bass. Herein, we examine the genetic integrity, population status, and long-term viability of the Shoal Bass population in Big Creek. We also examine two additional Shoal Bass populations that occur in the UCRB, specifically the Chestatee River and the upper Chattahoochee River, both of which are impounded at Lake Lanier. Together, the Shoal Bass inhabiting these three stream systems comprise a distinct genetic stock of Shoal Bass (Taylor 2017), underscoring the importance of conserving these populations towards maintaining the overall diversity and adaptive potential of the species. We assessed genetic diversity and estimated effective population sizes within these three rivers by genotyping fish with 16 microsatellite DNA markers. Results demonstrated that the Shoal Bass population in Big Creek has experienced high rates of introgression with non-native Smallmouth Bass (M. dolomieu), purportedly introduced into the Chattahoochee River in the past 10-15 years. Alarmingly, only 24% (15 of 62) of putative Shoal Bass collected from Big Creek were genetically pure Shoal Bass, whereas the majority of fish were first-filial (F1) generation hybrids and unidirectional backcrosses towards Shoal Bass. Fleeting opportunity may remain to conserve the native genome of the Shoal Bass population in Big Creek. High hybridization rates prevented genetic diversity analysis for the Big Creek population. Shoal Bass populations in the Chestatee and Chattahoochee rivers displayed levels of genetic diversity similar to populations that persist in other rivers in the ACF basin, namely the Flint and Chipola rivers. Effective population sizes of 93.8– 197.4 for the Chestatee and Chattahoochee rivers (combined) suggest that the conservation status of these populations is stable for the short-term, but may be at risk of losing genetic diversity and adaptive potential in the long-term. To estimate age and mortality of the three populations, we used fish scales and capture-markrecapture (CMR) as complementary, non-lethal methods for age estimation. Estimated ages of phenotypic Shoal Bass ranged from 1-12 years in all three populations, demonstrating increased longevity compared to populations elsewhere within the native range. Catch-curve estimates of annual mortality ranged from 18.4-23.7%, which are markedly lower than those observed in other Shoal Bass populations in the ACF basin. These differences in life-history characteristics underscore the need for the development of population-specific management and conservation strategies for Shoal Bass in the UCRB. The lowest recruitment variability (i.e., the variation in year-class strength) was observed in the Chestatee River, a forested watershed, whereas the highest variability was observed in Big Creek, an urbanized watershed. Recruitment strength in Big Creek was negatively influenced by discharge variability in the summer months, suggesting that flashy, sediment-laden flows hinder survival of recently hatched young. Other statistically significant models from Big Creek and the Chattahoochee River indicated that over-winter survival could be an important pinch-point for recruitment in UCRB populations. A multi-agency sampling effort was conducted from May 2013-May 2016 to estimate the population size of Shoal Bass occupying the 1-km of wadeable shoal habitats in Big Creek. Using CMR models, we estimated that approximately 219-348 Shoal Bass (≥ 70 mm total length) occupied the area throughout the duration of our study. These estimates largely reflect abundance of individuals aged 0-2 years, as only 9% (36 of 408) tagged fish were aged ≥ 7 years. Local abundance appeared similar to that reported for a population that inhabited Little Uchee Creek, a similar-sized tributary of the Chattahoochee River, prior to its recent functional extirpation. The low abundance of large, adult Shoal Bass further suggests the long-term viability of the Big Creek population may be in jeopardy. Perhaps most importantly, CMR estimates reflect abundance of phenotypic Shoal Bass – genetic analyses suggest the abundance of pure Shoal Bass could be an order of magnitude smaller. To evaluate the potential for adult Shoal Bass to emigrate from Big Creek into the mainstem Chattahoochee River, we tagged eight adults with acoustic telemetry tags and assessed their seasonal residency at two stationary receiver locations located in increasing proximity to the confluence with the Chattahoochee River. Fish took up residency near the confluence during the fall and winter months, during which time water temperatures in Big Creek were periodically colder than the Chattahoochee River. Although we were unable to document emigration, we conclude that the potential for emigration is highest during the winter months when the Chattahoochee River may be warmer than Big Creek. Two of the tagged fish were caught by anglers near the confluence, suggesting that angling pressure at Big Creek may be higher than previously suspected. Overall, this study observed unique life-history characteristics and characterized the population status of multiple Shoal Bass populations in the UCRB. Populations in the Chestatee and Chattahoochee rivers appear stable at present and likely represent the last remaining strongholds for pure Shoal Bass in the UCRB. Efforts to preserve forested watershed conditions, natural hydrology, and shoal habitats would contribute to the long-term persistence of Shoal Bass populations in these two rivers. Additionally, the detection of non-native Alabama Bass and their associated hybrids in both rivers is cause for concern. Diligent monitoring of hybridization dynamics between Alabama Bass and Shoal Bass is warranted, along with an assessment of Alabama Bass invasion extent upstream of Lake Lanier. The Shoal Bass population in Big Creek is threatened by elevated levels of introgression with nonnative Smallmouth Bass, recruitment variability, low abundance of adults, and isolation from other populations. Conservation intervention is urgently needed to restore and preserve this genetically distinct population, which would contribute to preservation of range wide genetic diversity and adaptability of the species. Additionally, an urban sport fishery for Shoal Bass at Big Creek has the potential to serve as a tool for increasing public awareness, engagement, and support of Shoal Bass conservation efforts in the UCRB. We suggest strategies for conservation of the remnant shoal habitats and Shoal Bass population in Big Creek, including potential development of a supplemental stocking program, selective removal of non-native congeners, and delivery of environmental education programs that could bolster awareness and appreciation.

Georgia↗

USGS2002

Simulation of a proposed emergency outlet from Devils Lake, North Dakota

From 1993 to 2001, Devils Lake rose more than 25 feet, flooding farmland, roads, and structures around the lake and causing more than $400 million in damages in the Devils Lake Basin. In July 2001, the level of Devils Lake was at 1,448.0 feet above sea level 1 , which was the highest lake level in more than 160 years. The lake could continue to rise to several feet above its natural spill elevation to the Sheyenne River (1,459 feet above sea level) in future years, causing extensive additional flooding in the basin and, in the event of an uncontrolled natural spill, downstream in the Red River of the North Basin as well. The outlet simulation model described in this report was developed to determine the potential effects of various outlet alternatives on the future lake levels and water quality of Devils Lake. Lake levels of Devils Lake are controlled largely by precipitation on the lake surface, evaporation from the lake surface, and surface inflow. For this study, a monthly water-balance model was developed to compute the change in total volume of Devils Lake, and a regression model was used to estimate monthly water-balance data on the basis of limited recorded data. Estimated coefficients for the regression model indicated fitted precipitation on the lake surface was greater than measured precipitation in most months, fitted evaporation from the lake surface was less than estimated evaporation in most months, and ungaged inflow was about 2 percent of gaged inflow in most months. Dissolved sulfate was considered to be the key water-quality constituent for evaluating the effects of a proposed outlet on downstream water quality. Because large differences in sulfate concentrations existed among the various bays of Devils Lake, monthly water-balance data were used to develop detailed water and sulfate mass-balance models to compute changes in sulfate load for each of six major storage compartments in response to precipitation, evaporation, inflow, and outflow from each compartment. The storage compartments--five for Devils Lake and one for Stump Lake--were connected by bridge openings, culverts, or natural channels that restricted mixing between compartments. A numerical algorithm was developed to calculate inflow and outflow from each compartment. Sulfate loads for the storage compartments first were calculated using the assumptions that no interaction occurred between the bottom sediments and the water column and no wind- or buoyancy-induced mixing occurred between compartments. However, because the fitted sulfate loads did not agree with the estimated sulfate loads, which were obtained from recorded sulfate concentrations, components were added to the sulfate mass-balance model to account for the flux of sulfate between bottom sediments and the lake and for mixing between storage compartments. Mixing between compartments can occur during periods of open water because of wind and during periods of ice cover because of water-density differences between compartments. Sulfate loads calculated using the sulfate mass-balance model with sediment interaction and mixing between compartments closely matched sulfate loads computed from historical concentrations. The water and sulfate mass-balance models were used to calculate potential future lake levels and sulfate concentrations for Devils Lake and Stump Lake given potential future values of monthly precipitation, evaporation, and inflow. Potential future inputs were generated using a scenario approach and a stochastic approach. In the scenario approach, historical values of precipitation, evaporation, and inflow were repeated in the future for a particular sequence of historical years. In the stochastic approach, a statistical time-series model was developed to randomly generate potential future inputs. The scenario approach was used to evaluate the effectiveness of various outlet alternatives, and the stochastic approach was used to evaluate the hydrologic and water-quality effects of the potential outlet alternatives that were selected on the basis of the scenario analysis. Given potential future lake levels and sulfate concentrations generated using either the scenario or stochastic approach and potential future ambient flows and sulfate concentrations for the Sheyenne River receiving waters, daily outlet discharges could be calculated for virtually any outlet alternative. For the scenario approach, future ambient flows and sulfate concentrations for the Sheyenne River were generated using the same sequence of years used for generating water-balance data for Devils Lake. For the stochastic approach, a procedure was developed for generating daily Sheyenne River flows and sulfate concentrations that were "in-phase" with the generated water-balance data for Devils Lake. Simulation results for the scenario approach indicated that neither of the West Bay outlet alternatives provided effective flood-damage reduction without exceeding downstream water-quality constraints. However, both Pelican Lake outlet alternatives provided significant flood-damage reduction with only minor downstream water-quality changes. The most effective alternative for controlling rising lake levels was a Pelican Lake outlet with a 480-cubic-foot-per-second pump capacity and a 250-milligram-per-liter downstream sulfate constraint. However, this plan is costly because of the high pump capacity and the requirement of a control structure on Highway 19 to control the level of Pelican Lake. A less costly, though less effective for flood-damage reduction, plan is a Pelican Lake outlet with a 300-cubic-foot-per-second pump capacity and a 250-milligram-per-liter downstream sulfate constraint. The plan is less costly because the pump capacity is smaller and because the control structure on Highway 19 is not required. The less costly Pelican Lake alternative with a 450-milligramper- liter downstream sulfate constraint rather than a 250-milligram-per-liter downstream sulfate constraint was identified by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers as the preferred alternative for detailed design and engineering analysis. Simulation results for the stochastic approach indicated that the geologic history of lake-level fluctuations of Devils Lake for the past 2,500 years was consistent with a climatic history that consisted of two climate states--a wet state, similar to conditions during 1980-99, and a normal state, similar to conditions during 1950-78. The transition times between the wet and normal climatic periods occurred randomly. The average duration of the wet climatic periods was 20 years, and the average duration of the normal climatic periods was 120 years. The stochastic approach was used to generate 10,000 independent sequences of lake levels and sulfate concentrations for Devils Lake for water years 2001-50. Each trace began with the same starting conditions, and the duration of the current wet cycle was generated randomly for each trace. Each trace was generated for the baseline (natural) condition and for the Pelican Lake outlet with a 300-cubic-foot-per-second pump capacity and a 450-milligram-per-liter downstream sulfate constraint. The outlet significantly lowered the probabilities of future lake-level increases within the next 50 years and did not substantially increase the probabilities of reaching low lake levels or poor water-quality conditions during the same period.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS2010

Occurrence and distribution of organic chemicals and nutrients and comparison of water-quality data from public drinking-water supplies in the Columbia aquifer in Delaware, 2000-08

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Delaware Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Control and the Delaware Geological Survey, conducted a groundwater-quality investigation to (a) describe the occurrence and distribution of selected contaminants, and (b) document any changes in groundwater quality in the Columbia aquifer public water-supply wells in the Coastal Plain in Delaware between 2000 and 2008. Thirty public water-supply wells located throughout the Columbia aquifer of the Delaware Coastal Plain were sampled from August through November of 2008. Twenty-two of the wells in the sampling network for this project were previously sampled in 2000. Eight new wells were selected to replace wells no longer in use. Groundwater collected from the wells was analyzed for the occurrence and distribution of selected pesticides, pesticide degradates, volatile organic compounds, nutrients, and major inorganic ions. Nine of the wells were analyzed for radioactive elements (radium-226, radium-228, and radon). Groundwater-quality data were compared for sites sampled in both 2000 and 2008 to document any changes in water quality. One or more pesticides were detected in samples from 29 of the 30 wells. There were no significant differences in pesticide and pesticide degradate concentrations and similar compounds were detected when comparing sampling results from 2000 and 2008. Pesticide and pesticide degradate concentrations were generally less than 1 microgram per liter. Twenty-four compounds, 14 pesticides, and 10 pesticide degradates were detected in at least one sample; the pesticide degradates, metolachlor ethanesulfonic acid, deethylatrazine, and alachlor ethanesulfonic acid were the most frequently detected compounds, each found in more than 50 percent of samples. Almost 80 percent of the detected pesticides were agricultural herbicides, which reflects the prevalence and wide distribution of agriculture in sampled areas, as well the dominance of agricultural pesticides among the target analytes for this study. No concentration of a pesticide or pesticide degradate exceeded any regulatory standard. Dieldrin, an insecticide that has been banned for several decades, was detected at a concentration that exceeded a non-regulatory health-based screening level of 0.002 micrograms per liter at nine sites. Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) were generally detected at concentrations of less than 1 microgram per liter, although 7 of the 31 detected VOCs had concentrations greater than 1 microgram per liter. There were no significant differences in VOC concentrations from 2000 to 2008; however, among the resampled wells, the mean number of VOCs detected per well was significantly different over the 8-year period. The number of VOCs detected per well decreased in 73 percent of the resampled wells; the decrease ranged from one to eight fewer detections in 2008 than in 2000. Chloroform and methyl tert-butyl ether were the most frequently detected VOCs, at 90 percent and 63 percent, respectively, among the 30 wells. Solvents were the most frequently detected class of VOCs. All measured concentrations of VOCs in groundwater were below established standards for drinking water and below other health-based guidelines. There were no significant differences in nutrient or major-ion concentrations between 2000 and 2008, however, the medians of two field measurements, pH and dissolved oxygen, were significantly higher in 2008 than in 2000 in the resampled wells. Although pH and dissolved oxygen were higher, water was still acidic and predominantly oxic. Nitrate was the predominant nutrient species in the Columbia aquifer, with a 90-percent detection frequency. The median nitrate concentration in groundwater was 4.88 milligrams per liter, which was slightly lower than, but not significantly different from, the median of 5.23 milligrams per liter for the 2000 samples. Concentrations of nitrate exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Maximum Contaminant Level or Federal drinking-water standard of 10 milligrams per liter as nitrogen in samples from two wells. Eight of the 30 wells sampled had iron or manganese concentrations that exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Secondary Maximum Contaminant Level; nine samples exceeded the Health Advisory Limit set by the Delaware Division of Public Health of 20 milligrams per liter for sodium in drinking water. Two radiochemical isotopes, radium-226 and radon-222, were detected in all nine groundwater samples analyzed; five samples had detectable levels of radium-228 activity. None of the samples exceeded the U.S Environmental Protection Agency's Maximum Contaminant Level for radium or radon in drinking water. Although radioactive elements were more frequently detected in 2008 than in 2000, this increased detection frequency is more likely due to lower detection levels in 2008 than 2000. The average age of groundwater entering the screens of the production wells sampled in 2008 ranged from 6 to 35 years, with a median groundwater age of 22 years. Groundwater age was positively correlated with well depth and negatively correlated with dissolved oxygen. Data from the 22 resampled wells indicate a significant positive difference in the average modeled groundwater-sample-age results. The average groundwater age from samples collected in 2008 was generally 7 years older than the average groundwater age from samples collected in 2000.

Delaware↗

USGS2000

Geohydrology and numerical simulation of groundwater flow in the central Virgin River Basin of Iron and Washington Counties, Utah

Because rapid growth of communities in Washington and Iron Counties, Utah, is expected to cause an increase in the future demand for water resources, a hydrologic investigation was done to better understand ground-water resources within the central Virgin River basin. This study focused on two of the principal ground-water reservoirs within the basin: the upper Ash Creek basin ground-water system and the Navajo and Kayenta aquifer system. The ground-water system of the upper Ash Creek drainage basin consists of three aquifers: the uppermost Quaternary basin-fill aquifer, the Tertiary alluvial-fan aquifer, and the Tertiary Pine Valley monzonite aquifer. These aquifers are naturally bounded by the Hurricane Fault and by drainage divides. On the basis of measurements, estimates, and numerical simulations of reasonable values for all inflow and outflow components, total water moving through the upper Ash Creek drainage basin ground-water system is estimated to be about 14,000 acre-feet per year. Recharge to the upper Ash Creek drainage basin ground-water system is mostly from infiltration of precipitation and seepage from ephemeral and perennial streams. The primary source of discharge is assumed to be evapotranspiration; however, subsurface discharge near Ash Creek Reservoir also may be important. The character of two of the hydrologic boundaries of the upper Ash Creek drainage basin ground-water system is speculative. The eastern boundary provided by the Hurricane Fault is assumed to be a no-flow boundary, and a substantial part of the ground-water discharge from the system is assumed to be subsurface outflow beneath Ash Creek Reservoir along the southern boundary. However, these assumptions might be incorrect because alternative numerical simulations that used different boundary conditions also proved to be feasible. The hydrogeologic character of the aquifers is uncertain because of limited data. Differences in well yield indicate that there is considerable variability in the transmissivity of the basin-fill aquifer. Field data also indicate that the basin-fill aquifer is more transmissive than the underlying alluvial-fan aquifer. Data from the Pine Valley monzonite aquifer indicate that its transmissivity may be highly variable and that it is strongly influenced by the connection of fractures. The Navajo and Kayenta aquifers provide most of the potable water to the municipalities of Washington County. Because of large outcrop exposures, uniform grain size, and large stratigraphic thickness, these formations are able to receive and store large amounts of water. In addition, structural forces have resulted in extensive fracture zones that enhance ground-water recharge and movement within these aquifers. Aquifer testing of the Navajo aquifer indicates that horizontal hydraulic-conductivity values range from 0.2 to 32 feet per day at different locations and may be primarily dependent on the extent of fracturing. Limited data indicate that the Kayenta aquifer generally is less transmissive than the Navajo aquifer. The aquifers are bounded to the south and west by the erosional extent of the formations and to the east by the Hurricane Fault, which completely offsets these formations and is assumed to be a lateral no-flow boundary. Like the Hurricane Fault, the Gunlock Fault is assumed to be a lateral no-flow boundary that divides the Navajo and Kayenta aquifers within the study area into two parts: the main part, between the Hurricane and Gunlock Faults; and the Gunlock part, west of the Gunlock Fault. Generally, the water in the Navajo and Kayenta aquifers contains few dissolved minerals. However, two distinct areas contain water with dissolved-solids concentrations greater than 500 milligrams per liter: a larger area north of the city of St. George and a smaller area a few miles west of the town of Hurricane. Mass-balance calculations indicate that in the higher-dissolved-solids area north of St. George, as much as 2.7 cubic feet per second may be entering the aquifer from underlying formations. For the area west of Hurricane, as much as 1.5 cubic feet per second may be entering the aquifer from underlying formations. On the basis of measurements, estimates, and numerical simulations, total water moving through the Navajo and Kayenta aquifers is estimated to be about 25,000 acre-feet per year for the main part and 5,000 acre-feet per year for the Gunlock part. The primary source of recharge is assumed to be infiltration of precipitation in the main part and seepage from the Santa Clara River in the Gunlock part. The primary source of discharge is assumed to be well discharge for both the main and Gunlock parts of the aquifers. Numerical simulations indicate that faults with major offset, such as the Washington Hollow Fault and an unnamed fault near Anderson Junction, may impede horizontal ground-water flow. Also, increased horizontal hydraulic conductivity along the orientation of predominant surface fracturing may be an important factor in regional ground-water flow. Simulations with increased north-south hydraulic conductivity substantially improved the match to measured water levels in the central area of the model between Snow Canyon and Mill Creek. Numerical simulation of the Gunlock part, using aquifer properties determined for the city of St. George municipal well field, resulted in a reasonable representation of regional water levels and estimated seepage from and to the Santa Clara River. To further quantify the Gunlock part of the Navajo and Kayenta aquifers, a better understanding of ground-water flow at the Gunlock Fault is needed.

Utah↗