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Integrating a geographic information system, a scientific visualization system, and a precipitation model

Investigating natural, potential, and human-induced impacts on hydrologic systems commonly requires complex modeling with overlapping data requirements, plus massive amounts of one- to four-dimensional data at multiple scales and formats. Given the complexity of most hydrologic studies, the requisite software infrastructure must incorporate many components including simulation modeling and spatial analysis with a flexible, intuitive display. Integrating geographic information systems (GIS) and scientific visualization systems (SVS) provides such an infrastructure. This paper describes an integrated system consisting of an orographic precipitation model, a GIS, and an SVS. The results of this study provide a basis for improving the understanding of hydro-climatic processes in mountainous regions. An additional benefit of the integrated system, the value of which is often underestimated, is the improved ability to communicate model results, leading to a broader understanding of the model assumptions, sensitivities, and conclusions at a management level.Investigating natural, potential, and human-induced impacts on hydrologic systems commonly requires complex modeling with overlapping data requirements, plus massive amounts of one- to four-dimensional data at multiple scales and formats. Given the complexity of most hydrologic studies, the requisite software infrastructure must incorporate many components including simulation modeling and spatial analysis with a flexible, intuitive display. Integrating geographic information systems (GIS) and scientific visualization systems (SVS) provides such an infrastructure. This paper describes an integrated system consisting of an orographic precipitation model, a GIS, and an SVS. The results of this study provide a basis for improving the understanding of hydro-climatic processes in mountainous regions. An additional benefit of the integrated system, the value of which is often underestimated, is the improved ability to communicate model results, leading to a broader understanding of the model assumptions, sensitivities, and conclusions at a management level.

Water Resources Bulletin↗

Hydrology and simulation of ground-water flow in Cedar Valley, Iron County, Utah

Cedar Valley, located in the eastern part of Iron County in southwestern Utah, is experiencing rapid population growth. Cedar Valley traditionally has supported agriculture, but the growing population needs a larger share of the available water resources. Water withdrawn from the unconsolidated basin fill is the primary source for public supply and is a major source of water for irrigation. Water managers are concerned about increasing demands on the water supply and need hydrologic information to manage this limited water resource and minimize flow of water unsuitable for domestic use toward present and future public-supply sources. Surface water in the study area is derived primarily from snowmelt at higher altitudes east of the study area or from occasional large thunderstorms during the summer. Coal Creek, a perennial stream with an average annual discharge of 24,200 acre-feet per year, is the largest stream in Cedar Valley. Typically, all of the water in Coal Creek is diverted for irrigation during the summer months. All surface water is consumed within the basin by irrigated crops, evapotranspiration, or recharge to the ground-water system. Ground water in Cedar Valley generally moves from primary recharge areas along the eastern margin of the basin where Coal Creek enters, to areas of discharge or subsurface outflow. Recharge to the unconsolidated basin-fill aquifer is by seepage of unconsumed irrigation water, streams, direct precipitation on the unconsolidated basin fill, and subsurface inflow from consolidated rock and Parowan Valley and is estimated to be about 42,000 acre-feet per year. Stable-isotope data indicate that recharge is primarily from winter precipitation. The chloride mass-balance method indicates that recharge may be less than 42,000 acre-feet per year, but is considered a rough approximation because of limited chloride concentration data for precipitation and Coal Creek. Continued declining water levels indicate that recharge is not sufficient to meet demand. Water levels in many areas are at or close to historic lows. In 2000, withdrawal from wells was estimated to be 36,000 acre-feet per year. About 4,000 acre-feet per year are estimated to discharge to evapotranspiration or as subsurface outflow. Prior to large-scale ground-water development, ground-water discharge by evapotranspiration and discharge to springs was much larger. Ground water along the eastern margin of the valley between Cedar City and Enoch is unsuitable for domestic use because of high dissolved-solids and nitrate concentrations. The predominant ions of Ca and SO4 in this area indicate dissolution of gypsum in the Markagunt Plateau to the east. Data collected during this study were compared to historic data; there is no evidence to indicate deterioration in ground-water quality. The spatial distribution of ground water with high nitrate concentration does not appear to be migrating beyond its previously known extent. No single source can be identified as the cause for elevated nitrate concentrations in ground water. Low nitrogen-15 values north of Cedar City indicate a natural geologic source. Higher nitrogen-15 values toward the center of the basin and associated hydrologic data indicate probable recharge from waste-water effluent. Excess dissolved nitrogen gas and low nitrate concentrations in shallow ground water indicate that denitrification is occurring in some areas. A computer ground-water flow model was developed to simulate flow in the unconsolidated basin fill. The method of determining recharge from irrigation was changed during the calibration process to incorporate more areal and temporal variability. In general, the model accurately simulates water levels and water-level fluctuations and can be considered an adequate tool to help determine the valley-wide effects on water levels of additional ground-water withdrawals and changes in water use. The model was used to simulated water-level changes caused by projecting current withdrawal rates, increased withdrawal rates, and a 10-year drought. Water levels declined 20 to 275 feet in the southern and central parts of the valley and less than 20 feet north of Enoch

Utah↗

In-situ stress and fracture permeability in a fault-hosted geothermal reservoir at Dixie Valley, Nevada

As part of a study relating fractured rock hydrology to in-situ stress and recent deformation within the Dixie Valley Geothermal Field, borehole televiewer logging and hydraulic fracturing stress measurements were conducted in a 2.7-km-deep geothermal production well (73B-7) drilled into the Stillwater fault zone. Borehole televiewer logs from well 73B-7 show numerous drilling-induced tensile fractures, indicating that the direction of the minimum horizontal principal stress, Shmin, is S57 ??E. As the Stillwater fault at this location dips S50 ??E at approximately 3??, it is nearly at the optimal orientation for normal faulting in the current stress field. Analysis of the hydraulic fracturing data shows that the magnitude of Shmin is 24.1 and 25.9 MPa at 1.7 and 2.5 km, respectively. In addition, analysis of a hydraulic fracturing test from a shallow well 1.5 km northeast of 73B-7 indicates that the magnitude of Shmin is 5.6 MPa at 0.4 km depth. Coulomb failure analysis shows that the magnitude of Shmin in these wells is close to that predicted for incipient normal faulting on the Stillwater and subparallel faults, using coefficients of friction of 0.6-1.0 and estimates of the in-situ fluid pressure and overburden stress. Spinner flowmeter and temperature logs were also acquired in well 73B-7 and were used to identify hydraulically conductive fractures. Comparison of these stress and hydrologic data with fracture orientations from the televiewer log indicates that hydraulically conductive fractures within and adjacent to the Stillwater fault zone are critically stressed, potentially active normal faults in the current west-northwest extensional stress regime at Dixie Valley.

Conference Paper↗

Water-quality and hydrogeologic data for three phosphate industry waste-disposal sites in central Florida, 1979-80

This report is a complilation of geologic, hydrologic, and water-quality data and information on test holes collected in the vicinity of gypsum stack complexes at two phosphate chemical plants and one phosphatic clayey waste disposal pond at a phosphate mine and beneficiation plant in central Florida. The data were collected from September 1979 to October 1980 at thee AMAX Phosphate, Inc., chemical plant, Piney Point; the USS AgriChemicals chemical plant, Bartow; and the International Minerals and Chemical Corporation Clear Springs mine, Bartow. Approximmmtely 5,400 field and laboratory water-quality determinations on water samples were collected from about 78 test holes and 31 surface-water, rainfall, and other sampling sites at phosphate industry beneficiation and chemical plant waste-disposal operations. Maps show locations of sampling sites. (USGS)

Florida↗

Response of juvenile Chinook Salmon to an experimental reservoir operation to facilitate downstream migration

Objectives High-head dams and storage reservoirs impact ecological processes, impeding recovery efforts of Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus spp. in the western United States. These projects can delay migration, increase risks of predation and disease, and induce mortality for juvenile Pacific salmon during downstream passage. To mitigate these negative effects, large-scale changes to dam operations have been proposed as interim measures or alternatives to engineered fish passage solutions. A novel deep drawdown operation of the Lookout Point Project (two dams and reservoirs) in Oregon serves as a case study for learning from a large-scale management experiment. Beginning in July 2024, Lookout Point Reservoir was slowly lowered to attain minimal levels from mid-November to mid-December with the intent of expediting downstream passage through the project for juvenile Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha . We evaluated the impacts of the months-long operation on two life histories of juvenile Chinook Salmon with different rearing environments and growth rates. Methods Acoustic telemetry was used to monitor juvenile Chinook Salmon in the Lookout Point Project. Environmental data, including water temperature and hydrological conditions, were collected. We fitted a time-integrated migration survival model to these data to estimate the effects of management-influenced covariates and fish length on apparent survival and residence time in each reach of the Lookout Point Project. Results Larger fish had higher survival than smaller fish in each reach of the Lookout Point Project. Apparent survival through each dam of the Lookout Point Project was highest and forebay residence times lowest during the latter part of the drawdown (late November). However, early periods of the drawdown (September) were associated with a transition from a thermally stratified reservoir to a warm isothermal reservoir that negatively impacted reservoir survival. Conclusions The deep drawdown of the Lookout Point Project achieved the management intent to improve downstream passage for juvenile Chinook Salmon at the lowest reservoir elevations but also caused unintended changes in the reservoir rearing environment prior to full drawdown. Further research could resolve remaining uncertainties regarding the overall effectiveness of drawdown operations with respect to the population dynamics of different juvenile life history strategies. Understanding these factors would help optimize future management actions aimed at Pacific salmon recovery above the Lookout Point Project.

Oregon↗

Water resources data for West Virginia, water year 1979. Appendix - coal areas

Water resources data for the 1979 water year for coal regions of West Virginia consist of records of discharge and water quality of streams, wells, mines, and abandoned mine shafts; and water levels in wells and abandoned mine shafts. Section 1 consists of data obtained for the statewide Coal Hydrology Monitoring project and includes discharge and water-quality data collected during two sampling periods at 361 sites. Section 2 consists of data obtained for the Mining Effects Research project in five small basins in southwestern West Virginia during the period February 1976 to January 1980 and includes records of water quality for 53 stream sampling sites, 52 well sampling sites, 31 mine-discharge sampling sites, and 2 mine-shaft sampling sites; and water levels in 6 wells and 2 mine shafts.

West Virginia↗

Land-use interactions, Oil-Field infrastructure, and natural processes control hydrocarbon and arsenic concentrations in groundwater, Poso Creek Oil Field, California, USA

Like many hydrocarbon production areas in the U.S., the Poso Creek Oil Field in California includes and is adjacent to other land uses (agricultural and other developed lands) that affect the hydrology and geochemistry of the aquifer overlying and adjacent to oil development. We hypothesize that the distributions of hydrocarbons and arsenic in groundwater in such areas will be controlled by complex interactions between mixed land uses, oil-field infrastructure, and natural processes. In 2020–2021, samples of groundwater and surface water were collected and analyzed for a large suite of inorganic and organic chemicals and isotope and gas tracers to test this hypothesis. Those data are supplemented with ancillary data on historical geochemistry, hydrology, geology, and oil-field infrastructure. Hydrocarbons in groundwater (e.g., methane through pentane gases and benzene) are associated with natural processes (e.g., fault offsets or transition in sediment depositional environment) and oil-field infrastructure (e.g., fluid-migration pathways associated with uncemented annulus in oil wells or unlined pits). Arsenic concentrations >10 μg per liter (μg/L; maximum concentration 12.9 μg/L) are associated with natural processes in old, high-pH groundwater, and more recent recharge of water from natural and/or engineered recharge processes. Along the southwest margin of the oil field, pumping for drinking-water and irrigation supplies in combination with engineered groundwater recharge produce a depression in groundwater elevations where groundwater with elevated sulfate concentrations from agricultural areas and groundwater with hydrocarbons from the oil field mix to produce a zone of sulfate reduction that removes hydrocarbons and arsenic from groundwater but produces elevated sulfide (S 2- ) concentrations (maximum concentration 29 mg per liter, mg/L). In this study, multiple approaches were required to resolve the overlapping effects of land uses, oil-field infrastructure, and natural processes on the distributions of hydrocarbons and arsenic in groundwater. The combined use of geographic, historical, physical, chemical, isotopic, and other information to constrain processes could be a useful approach for studies in other hydrocarbon-production areas. This is particularly important where land uses affect aquifer hydrology to an extent that causes mixing of groundwaters with different chemical compositions.

California↗

The Hydrogeology of the San Juan Mountains Chapter 5

Knowledge of the occurrence, storage, and flow of groundwater in mountainous regions is limited by the lack of integrated data from wells, streams, springs, and climate. In his comprehensive treatment of the hydrogeology of the San Luis Valley, Huntley (1979) hypothesized that the underlying, fractured volcanic bedrock of the San Juan Mountains has relatively high bulk permeability and a regional-scale water table with a low hydraulic gradient. Other (some more recent) studies of fractured crystalline bedrock in mountainous terrain indicate that these rock units can act as aquifers (Kahn et al. 2008; Manning and Caine 2007; Robinson 1978; Stober and Bucher 2005). The body of recent work also suggests that the conception that fractured crystalline bedrock is of such low permeability that it constitutes a “no-flow zone” may be inappropriate. In addition to establishing a new baseline, the data presented here are used to test Huntley’s (1979) hypotheses that suggest that the San Juan Mountains may be underlain by a substantial groundwater system. With the advent of computers and digital databases, many types of publicly available data can be used to test hypotheses and provide new insights into mountain hydrogeology at the regional scale in the San Juan Mountains. Plate 16 illustrates processes that suggest several fundamental questions arising from our lack of knowledge of mountain hydrogeology. These questions include: What are the dynamic interrelationships among the tectonics of mountain building, climate, and groundwater, and what are the time scales over which associated processes operate? How does extreme topographic relief allow for groundwater recharge along steep surfaces rather than simply causing precipitation to run off ? How does extreme relief translate into hydraulic gradients that drive groundwater flow? Can extreme gradients drive large volumes of meteoric water deep into the Earth’s upper crust? Once in the subsurface, what are the residence times of these waters? Finally, how does complex geology, commonly associated with mountainous terrain, influence these processes and control potentially heterogeneous and tortuous flow pathways? This chapter presents a synthesis of hydrogeological data, in a reconnaissance style, at the regional scale for the San Juan Mountains. Analyses of these data shed some light on the questions posed earlier for the San Juan Mountains and on mountain hydrogeologic processes in general. These analyses are based on public digital data from geologic and topographic maps, precipitation networks, stream gauges, groundwater wells, and springs. These data can be integrated using the hydrologic cycle expressed as a mass balance between inputs and outputs. The data types noted earlier form the basic set of measurements used to explore, characterize, and quantify elements of the hydrologic cycle. This exploration at a variety of scales yields insight into the relationships among the physical geological framework, climatological and hydrological budgets, and the hydraulic properties of the major aquifers in the San Juan Mountains. Each of these factors has been broken down and investigated separately and then integrated at the end of the chapter, using a conceptual model. Although the San Juan Mountains contain extensive precious- and base-metal deposits that have led to natural and mining-related groundwater contamination, this topic is not addressed here. Interested readers should refer to the extensive body of US Geological Survey work in Gray et al. (1994), Plumlee et al. (1995), Wirt et al. (1999), Johnson and Yager (2006), Johnson et al. (2007), and Church, von Guerard, and Finger (2007). Huntley (1979) also provided a large database for regional hydro-geochemistry of the San Juan Mountains (SJM).

Colorado↗

Development of a database-driven system for simulating water temperature in the lower Yakima River main stem, Washington, for various climate scenarios

A model for simulating daily maximum and mean water temperatures was developed by linking two existing models: one developed by the U.S. Geological Survey and one developed by the Bureau of Reclamation. The study area included the lower Yakima River main stem between the Roza Dam and West Richland, Washington. To automate execution of the labor-intensive models, a database-driven model automation program was developed to decrease operation costs, to reduce user error, and to provide the capability to perform simulations quickly for multiple management and climate change scenarios. Microsoft© SQL Server 2008 R2 Integration Services packages were developed to (1) integrate climate, flow, and stream geometry data from diverse sources (such as weather stations, a hydrologic model, and field measurements) into a single relational database; (2) programmatically generate heavily formatted model input files; (3) iteratively run water temperature simulations; (4) process simulation results for export to other models; and (5) create a database-driven infrastructure that facilitated experimentation with a variety of scenarios, node permutations, weather data, and hydrologic conditions while minimizing costs of running the model with various model configurations. As a proof-of-concept exercise, water temperatures were simulated for a "Current Conditions" scenario, where local weather data from 1980 through 2005 were used as input, and for "Plus 1" and "Plus 2" climate warming scenarios, where the average annual air temperatures used in the Current Conditions scenario were increased by 1degree Celsius (°C) and by 2°C, respectively. Average monthly mean daily water temperatures simulated for the Current Conditions scenario were compared to measured values at the Bureau of Reclamation Hydromet gage at Kiona, Washington, for 2002-05. Differences ranged between 1.9° and 1.1°C for February, March, May, and June, and were less than 0.8°C for the remaining months of the year. The difference between current conditions and measured monthly values for the two warmest months (July and August) were 0.5°C and 0.2°C, respectively. The model predicted that water temperature generally becomes less sensitive to air temperature increases as the distance from the mouth of the river decreases. As a consequence, the difference between climate warming scenarios also decreased. The pattern of decreasing sensitivity is most pronounced from August to October. Interactive graphing tools were developed to explore the relative sensitivity of average monthly and mean daily water temperature to increases in air temperature for model output locations along the lower Yakima River main stem.

Washington↗

Signatures of hydrologic function across the critical zone observatory network

Despite a multitude of small catchment studies, we lack a deep understanding of how variations in critical zone architecture lead to variations in hydrologic states and fluxes. This study characterizes hydrologic dynamics of 15 catchments of the U.S. Critical Zone Observatory (CZO) network where we hypothesized that our understanding of subsurface structure would illuminate patterns of hydrologic partitioning. The CZOs collect data sets that characterize the physical, chemical, and biological architecture of the subsurface, while also monitoring hydrologic fluxes such as streamflow, precipitation, and evapotranspiration. For the first time, we collate time series of hydrologic variables across the CZO network and begin the process of examining hydrologic signatures across sites. We find that catchments with low baseflow indices and high runoff sensitivity to storage receive most of their precipitation as rain and contain clay‐rich regolith profiles, prominent argillic horizons, and/or anthropogenic modifications. In contrast, sites with high baseflow indices and low runoff sensitivity to storage receive the majority of precipitation as snow and have more permeable regolith profiles. The seasonal variability of water balance components is a key control on the dynamic range of hydraulically connected water in the critical zone. These findings lead us to posit that water balance partitioning and streamflow hydraulics are linked through the coevolution of critical zone architecture but that much work remains to parse these controls out quantitatively.

Water Resources Research↗

Effects of urbanization on the magnitude and frequency of floods on small streams in Tennessee; basic data report No. 3

Rainfall and discharge data collected at 21 urban hydrology sites in Tennessee from July 1977 to September 1983 are summarized. These rainfall-runoff data will be used to calibrate a U.S. Geological Survey Rainfall-Runoff Model. The results of the model calibrations will then be used to develop reliable methods for determining the magnitude and frequency of floods on small streams in Tennessee where urbanization is a factor. (USGS)

Tennessee↗

Development of the Hydroecological Integrity Assessment Process for Determining Environmental Flows for New Jersey Streams

The natural flow regime paradigm and parallel stream ecological concepts and theories have established the benefits of maintaining or restoring the full range of natural hydrologic variation for physiochemical processes, biodiversity, and the evolutionary potential of aquatic and riparian communities. A synthesis of recent advances in hydroecological research coupled with stream classification has resulted in a new process to determine environmental flows and assess hydrologic alteration. This process has national and international applicability. It allows classification of streams into hydrologic stream classes and identification of a set of non-redundant and ecologically relevant hydrologic indices for 10 critical sub-components of flow. Three computer programs have been developed for implementing the Hydroecological Integrity Assessment Process (HIP): (1) the Hydrologic Indices Tool (HIT), which calculates 171 ecologically relevant hydrologic indices on the basis of daily-flow and peak-flow stream-gage data; (2) the New Jersey Hydrologic Assessment Tool (NJHAT), which can be used to establish a hydrologic baseline period, provide options for setting baseline environmental-flow standards, and compare past and proposed streamflow alterations; and (3) the New Jersey Stream Classification Tool (NJSCT), designed for placing unclassified streams into pre-defined stream classes. Biological and multivariate response models including principal-component, cluster, and discriminant-function analyses aided in the development of software and implementation of the HIP for New Jersey. A pilot effort is currently underway by the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection in which the HIP is being used to evaluate the effects of past and proposed surface-water use, ground-water extraction, and land-use changes on stream ecosystems while determining the most effective way to integrate the process into ongoing regulatory programs. Ultimately, this scientifically defensible process will help to quantify the effects of anthropogenic changes and development on hydrologic variability and help planners and resource managers balance current and future water requirements with ecological needs.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Basin-scale responses of groundwater-resource quality to drought and recovery, San Joaquin Valley, California

Groundwater-resource quality is assumed to be less responsive to drought compared to that of surface water due to relatively long transit times of recharge to drinking-supply wells. Here, we evidence dynamic perturbations in aquifer pressure dynamics during drought and subsequent recovery periods cause dramatic shifts in groundwater quality on a basin scale. We used a novel application of time-series clustering on annual nitrate anomalies at >450 public-supply wells (PSWs) across California's San Joaquin Valley during 2000–22 to group sub-populations of wells with similar water-quality responses to drought. Additionally, we statistically evaluated the direction and magnitude of multi-constituent water-quality changes across the San Joaquin Valley using a broader dataset of >3000 PSWs with data during two select hydrologic stress periods representing an extreme drought (2012–16) and subsequent recovery (2016–19). Results of time-series clustering and stress-period change analyses corroborate a predominant regional response to pumping stress characterized by increased concentrations of anthropogenic constituents (nitrate, total dissolved solids) and decreased concentrations of geogenic constituents (arsenic, fluoride), which largely reversed during recovery. Cluster analysis also identified a secondary, less commonly occurring group of PSWs where nitrate decreased during drought, but explanatory factor analysis was not able to discern hydrogeologic drivers for these two divergent response patterns. Long-term tracer data support the hypothesis that the predominant regional signal of nitrate increase during drought is caused by enhanced capture of modern-aged groundwater by PSWs during periods of pumping stress, which can drive rapid changes in water quality on seasonal and multiannual timescales. Pumping-induced migration of modern, oxic groundwater to depth during drought may affect geochemical conditions in deeper portions of regional aquifers controlling the mobility of geogenic contaminants over the long term.

California↗

The U.S. Geological Survey Coal Hydrology Program and the potential of hydrologic models for impact assessments

A requirement of Public Law 95-87, the Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act of 1977, is the understanding of the hydrology in actual and proposed surface-mined areas. Surface-water data for small specific-sites and for larger areas such as adjacent and general areas are needed also to satisfy the hydrologic requirements of the Act. The Act specifies that surface-water modeling techniques may be used to generate the data and information. The purpose of this report is to describe how this can be achieved for smaller watersheds. This report also characterizes 12 ' state-of-the-art ' strip-mining assessment models that are to be tested with data from two data-intensive studies involving small watersheds in Tennessee and Indiana. Watershed models are best applied to small watersheds with specific-site data. Extending the use of modeling techniques to larger watersheds remains relatively untested, and to date the upper limits for application have not been established. The U.S. Geological Survey is currently collecting regional hydrologic data in the major coal provinces of the United States and this data will be used to help satisfy the ' general-area ' data requirements of the Act. This program is reviewed and described in this report. (USGS)

Open-File Report↗

Use of Doppler velocity radars to monitor and predict debris and flood wave velocities and travel times in post-wildfire basins

The magnitude and timing of extreme events such as debris and floodflows (collectively referred to as floodflows) in post-wildfire basins are difficult to measure and are even more difficult to predict. To address this challenge, a sensor ensemble consisting of noncontact, ground-based (near-field), Doppler velocity (velocity) and pulsed (stage or gage height) radars, rain gages, and a redundant radio communication network was leveraged to monitor flood wave velocities, to validate travel times, and to compliment observations from NEXRAD weather radar. The sensor ensemble (DEbris and Floodflow Early warNing System, DEFENS) was deployed in Waldo Canyon, Pike National Forest, Colorado, USA, which was burned entirely (100 percent burned) by the Waldo Canyon fire during the summer of 2012 ( MTBS, 2020 ). Surface velocity, stage, and precipitation time series collected during the DEFENS deployment on 10 August 2015 were used to monitor and predict flood wave velocities and travel times as a function of stream discharge (discharge; streamflow). The 10 August 2015 event exhibited spatial and temporal variations in rainfall intensity and duration that resulted in a discharge equal to 5.01 cubic meters per second (m 3 /s). Discharge was estimated post-event using a slope-conveyance indirect discharge method and was verified using velocity radars and the probability concept algorithm. Mean flood wave velocities – represented by the kinematic celerity ( c k = 2.619 m e t e r s p e r s e c o n d , m / s ± 0.556 p e r c e n t "> 𝑐 𝑘 = 2.619 𝑚𝑒𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑠 𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑑, m/s ± 0.556 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑡) and dynamic celerity ( c d = 3.533 m / s ± 0.181 p e r c e n t a n d t h e i r u n c e r t a i n t i e s "> 𝑐 𝑑 = 3.533 m/s ± 0.181 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑡) and their uncertainties were computed. L-moments were computed to establish probability density functions (PDFs) and associated statistics for each of the at-a-section hydraulic parameters to serve as a workflow for implementing alert networks in hydrologically similar basins that lack data. Measured flood wave velocities and travel times agreed well with predicted values. Absolute percent differences between predicted and measured flood wave velocities ranged from 1.6 percent to 49 percent and varied with water slope, hydraulic radius, and depth. The kinematic celerity was a better predictor for steep slopes and wide flood plains associated with the Upper Waldo and Middle Waldo radar streamgages; whereas, the dynamic celerity was a better surrogate for shallow slopes and incised channels such as the Lower Waldo radar streamgage. The method demonstrates the potential extensibility of a post-wildfire warning system by (1) leveraging multiple systems (i.e., weather radar, near-field velocity and stage radars, and rain gages) for accurate and timely warnings of debris and floodflows, (2) establishing an order of operations to site, install, and operate near-field radars and conventional rain gages to record floodflows, forecast travel times, and document geomorphic change in this basin and hydrologically similar basins that lack data, and (3) communicating data operationally with the Colorado Department of Transportation engineering staff, National Weather Service forecasters, and emergency managers.

Colorado↗

A comparison of pre- and post-remediation water quality, Mineral Creek, Colorado

Pre- and post-remediation data sets are used herein to assess the effectiveness of remedial measures implemented in the headwaters of the Mineral Creek watershed, where contamination from hard rock mining has led to elevated metal concentrations and acidic pH. Collection of pre- and post-remediation data sets generally followed the synoptic mass balance approach, in which numerous stream and inflow locations are sampled for the constituents of interest and estimates of streamflow are determined by tracer dilution. The comparison of pre- and post-remediation data sets is confounded by hydrologic effects and the effects of temporal variation. Hydrologic effects arise due to the relatively wet conditions that preceded the collection of pre-remediation data, and the relatively dry conditions associated with the post-remediation data set. This difference leads to a dilution effect in the upper part of the study reach, where pre-remediation concentrations were diluted by rainfall, and a source area effect in the lower part of the study reach, where a smaller portion of the watershed may have been contributing constituent mass during the drier post-remediation period. A second confounding factor, temporal variability, violates the steady-state assumption that underlies the synoptic mass balance approach, leading to false identification of constituent sources and sinks. Despite these complications, remedial actions completed in the Mineral Creek headwaters appear to have led to improvements in stream water quality, as post-remediation profiles of instream load are consistently lower than the pre-remediation profiles over the entire study reach for six of the eight constituents considered (aluminium, arsenic, cadmium, copper, iron, and zinc). Concentrations of aluminium, cadmium, copper, lead, and zinc remain above chronic aquatic-life standards, however, and additional remedial actions may be needed. Future implementations of the synoptic mass balance approach should be preceded by an assessment of temporal variability, and modifications to the synoptic sampling protocol should be made if necessary.

Colorado↗

Application of AFINCH as a tool for evaluating the effects of streamflow-gaging-network size and composition on the accuracy and precision of streamflow estimates at ungaged locations in the southeast Lake Michigan hydrologic subregion

Bootstrapping techniques employing random subsampling were used with the AFINCH (Analysis of Flows In Networks of CHannels) model to gain insights into the effects of variation in streamflow-gaging-network size and composition on the accuracy and precision of streamflow estimates at ungaged locations in the 0405 (Southeast Lake Michigan) hydrologic subregion. AFINCH uses stepwise-regression techniques to estimate monthly water yields from catchments based on geospatial-climate and land-cover data in combination with available streamflow and water-use data. Calculations are performed on a hydrologic-subregion scale for each catchment and stream reach contained in a National Hydrography Dataset Plus (NHDPlus) subregion. Water yields from contributing catchments are multiplied by catchment areas and resulting flow values are accumulated to compute streamflows in stream reaches which are referred to as flow lines. AFINCH imposes constraints on water yields to ensure that observed streamflows are conserved at gaged locations. Data from the 0405 hydrologic subregion (referred to as Southeast Lake Michigan) were used for the analyses. Daily streamflow data were measured in the subregion for 1 or more years at a total of 75 streamflow-gaging stations during the analysis period which spanned water years 1971–2003. The number of streamflow gages in operation each year during the analysis period ranged from 42 to 56 and averaged 47. Six sets (one set for each censoring level), each composed of 30 random subsets of the 75 streamflow gages, were created by censoring (removing) approximately 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, and 75 percent of the streamflow gages (the actual percentage of operating streamflow gages censored for each set varied from year to year, and within the year from subset to subset, but averaged approximately the indicated percentages). Streamflow estimates for six flow lines each were aggregated by censoring level, and results were analyzed to assess (a) how the size and composition of the streamflow-gaging network affected the average apparent errors and variability of the estimated flows and (b) whether results for certain months were more variable than for others. The six flow lines were categorized into one of three types depending upon their network topology and position relative to operating streamflow-gaging stations. Statistical analysis of the model results indicates that (1) less precise (that is, more variable) estimates resulted from smaller streamflow-gaging networks as compared to larger streamflow-gaging networks, (2) precision of AFINCH flow estimates at an ungaged flow line is improved by operation of one or more streamflow gages upstream and (or) downstream in the enclosing basin, (3) no consistent seasonal trend in estimate variability was evident, and (4) flow lines from ungaged basins appeared to exhibit the smallest absolute apparent percent errors (APEs) and smallest changes in average APE as a function of increasing censoring level. The counterintuitive results described in item (4) above likely reflect both the nature of the base-streamflow estimate from which the errors were computed and insensitivity in the average model-derived estimates to changes in the streamflow-gaging-network size and composition. Another analysis demonstrated that errors for flow lines in ungaged basins have the potential to be much larger than indicated by their APEs if measured relative to their true (but unknown) flows. “Missing gage” analyses, based on examination of censoring subset results where the streamflow gage of interest was omitted from the calibration data set, were done to better understand the true error characteristics for ungaged flow lines as a function of network size. Results examined for 2 water years indicated that the probability of computing a monthly streamflow estimate within 10 percent of the true value with AFINCH decreased from greater than 0.9 at about a 10-percent network-censoring level to less than 0.6 as the censoring level approached 75 percent. In addition, estimates for typically dry months tended to be characterized by larger percent errors than typically wetter months.

Indiana, Michigan↗

Tools for beach health data management, data processing, and predictive model implementation

This fact sheet describes utilities created for management of recreational waters to provide efficient data management, data aggregation, and predictive modeling as well as a prototype geographic information system (GIS)-based tool for data visualization and summary. All of these utilities were developed to assist beach managers in making decisions to protect public health. The Environmental Data Discovery and Transformation (EnDDaT) Web service identifies, compiles, and sorts environmental data from a variety of sources that help to define climatic, hydrologic, and hydrodynamic characteristics including multiple data sources within the U.S. Geological Survey and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The Great Lakes Beach Health Database (GLBH-DB) and Web application was designed to provide a flexible input, export, and storage platform for beach water quality and sanitary survey monitoring data to compliment beach monitoring programs within the Great Lakes. A real-time predictive modeling strategy was implemented by combining the capabilities of EnDDaT and the GLBH-DB for timely, automated prediction of beach water quality. The GIS-based tool was developed to map beaches based on their physical and biological characteristics, which was shared with multiple partners to provide concepts and information for future Web-accessible beach data outlets.

Fact Sheet↗