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At least 1,693 records · Page 94Linked to original sources
USGS1993

Geologic research in support of sustainable agriculture

The importance and role of the geosciences in studies of sustainable agriculture include such traditional research areas as, agromineral resource assessments, the mapping and classification of soils and soil amendments, and the evaluation of landscapes for their vulnerability to physical and chemical degradation. Less traditional areas of study, that are increasing in societal importance because of environmental concerns and research into sustainable systems in general, include regional geochemical studies of plant and animal trace element deficiencies and toxicities, broad-scale water quality investigations, agricultural chemicals and the hydrogeologic interface, and minimally processed and ion-exchange agrominerals. We discuss the importance and future of phosphate in the US and world based on human population growth, projected agromineral demands in general, and the unavailability of new, high-quality agricultural lands. We also present examples of studies that relate geochemistry and the hydrogeologic characteristics of a region to the bioavailability and cycling of trace elements important to sustainable agricultural systems.

Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment↗
USGS1999

Examining risk in mineral exploration

Successful mineral exploration strategy requires identification of some of the risk sources and considering them in the decision-making process so that controllable risk can be reduced. Risk is defined as chance of failure or loss. Exploration is an economic activity involving risk and uncertainty, so risk also must be defined in an economic context. Risk reduction can be addressed in three fundamental ways: (1) increasing the number of examinations; (2) increasing success probabilities; and (3) changing success probabilities per test by learning. These provide the framework for examining exploration risk. First, the number of prospects examined is increased, such as by joint venturing, thereby reducing chance of gambler's ruin . Second, success probability is increased by exploring for deposit types more likely to be economic, such as those with a high proportion of world-class deposits. For example, in looking for 100+ ton (>3 million oz) Au deposits, porphyry Cu-Au, or epithermal quartz alunite Au types require examining fewer deposits than Comstock epithermal vein and most other deposit types. For porphyry copper exploration, a strong positive relationship between area of sulfide minerals and deposits' contained Cu can be used to reduce exploration risk by only examining large sulfide systems. In some situations, success probabilities can be increased by examining certain geologic environments. Only 8% of kuroko massive sulfide deposits are world class, but success chances can be increased to about 15% by looking in settings containing sediments and rhyolitic rocks. It is possible to reduce risk of loss during mining by sequentially developing and expanding a mine—thus reducing capital exposed at early stages and reducing present value of risked capital. Because this strategy is easier to apply in some deposit types than in others, the strategy can affect deposit types sought. Third, risk is reduced by using prior information and by changing the independence of trials assumption, that is, by learning. Bayes' formula is used to change the probability of existence of the deposit sought on the basis of successive exploration stages. Perhaps the most important way to reduce exploration risk is to employ personnel with the appropriate experience and yet who are learning.

Natural Resources Research↗
USGS2014

Managing the whole landscape: Historical, hybrid, and novel ecosystems

The reality confronting ecosystem managers today is one of heterogeneous, rapidly transforming landscapes, particularly in the areas more affected by urban and agricultural development. A landscape management framework that incorporates all systems, across the spectrum of degrees of alteration, provides a fuller set of options for how and when to intervene, uses limited resources more effectively, and increases the chances of achieving management goals. That many ecosystems have departed so substantially from their historical trajectory that they defy conventional restoration is not in dispute. Acknowledging novel ecosystems need not constitute a threat to existing policy and management approaches. Rather, the development of an integrated approach to management interventions can provide options that are in tune with the current reality of rapid ecosystem change.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗
USGS2005

The value of agricultural wetlands as invertebrate resources for wintering shorebirds

Agricultural landscapes have received little recognition for the food resources they provide to wintering waterbirds. In the Willamette Valley of Oregon, modest yet significant populations of wintering shorebirds (Charadriiformes) regularly use hundreds of dispersed wetlands on agricultural lands. Benthic invertebrates are a critical resource for the survival of overwintering shorebirds, yet the abundance of invertebrate resources in agricultural wetlands such as these has not been quantified. To evaluate the importance of agricultural wetlands to a population of wintering shorebirds, the density, biomass, and general community composition of invertebrates available to birds were quantified at a sample of Willamette Valley sites during a wet (1999–2000) and a dry winter (2000–2001). Invertebrate densities ranged among wetlands from 173 to 1925 (mean ± S.E.: 936 ± 106) individuals/m 2 in the wet winter, and from 214 to 3484 (1028 ± 155) individuals/m 2 in the dry winter. Total invertebrate estimated biomass among wetlands ranged from 35 to 652 (mean ± S.E.: 364 ± 35) mg/m 2 in the wet winter, and from 85 to 1405 (437 ± 62) mg/m 2 in the dry winter. These estimates for food abundance were comparable to that observed in some other important freshwater wintering regions in North America.

Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment↗
USGS2008

Heat as a tracer to determine streambed water exchanges

This work reviews the use of heat as a tracer of shallow groundwater movement and describes current temperature-based approaches for estimating streambed water exchanges. Four common hydrologic conditions in stream channels are graphically depicted with the expected underlying streambed thermal responses, and techniques are discussed for installing and monitoring temperature and stage equipment for a range of hydrological environments. These techniques are divided into direct-measurement techniques in streams and streambeds, groundwater techniques relying on traditional observation wells, and remote sensing and other large-scale advanced temperature-acquisition techniques. A review of relevant literature suggests researchers often graphically visualize temperature data to enhance conceptual models of heat and water flow in the near-stream environment and to determine site-specific approaches of data analysis. Common visualizations of stream and streambed temperature patterns include thermographs, temperature envelopes, and one-, two-, and three-dimensional temperature contour plots. Heat and water transport governing equations are presented for the case of transport in streambeds, followed by methods of streambed data analysis, including simple heat-pulse arrival time and heat-loss procedures, analytical and time series solutions, and heat and water transport simulation models. A series of applications of these methods are presented for a variety of stream settings ranging from arid to continental climates. Progressive successes to quantify both streambed fluxes and the spatial extent of streambeds indicate heat-tracing tools help define the streambed as a spatially distinct field (analogous to soil science), rather than simply the lower boundary in stream research or an amorphous zone beneath the stream channel.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2007

Development and application of a spatial hydrology model of Okefenokee Swamp, Georgia

The model described herein was used to assess effects of the Suwannee River sill (a low earthen dam constructed to impound the Suwannee River within the Okefenokee National Wildlife Refuge to eliminate wildfires) on the hydrologic environment of Okefenokee Swamp, Georgia. Developed with Arc/Info Macro Language routines in the GRID environment, the model distributes water in the swamp landscape using precipitation, inflow, evapotranspiration, outflow, and standing water. Water movement direction and rate are determined by the neighborhood topographic gradient, determined using survey grade Global Positioning Systems technology. Model data include flow rates from USGS monitored gauges, precipitation volumes and water levels measured within the swamp, and estimated evapotranspiration volumes spatially modified by vegetation type. Model output in semi-monthly time steps includes water depth, water surface elevation above mean sea level, and movement direction and volume. Model simulations indicate the sill impoundment affects 18 percent of the swamp during high water conditions when wildfires are scarce and has minimal spatial effect (increasing hydroperiods in less than 5 percent of the swamp) during low water and drought conditions when fire occurrence is high but precipitation and inflow volumes are limited.

Georgia↗
USGS1981

Birds of the St. Croix River valley: Minnesota and Wisconsin

The St. Croix River Valley encompasses nearly 11,550 km2 in east-central Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin. A wide range of habitats are available for birds including upland oak, lowland deciduous, maple-basswood, lowland and upland coniferous forests, natural basin wetlands, and grasslands. Situated in the north-central region of the United States, the valley is a biological 'crossroads' for many species. Because of the mixed affinities of plant communities, the valley includes the northern and southern range limits for a number of species. Also, because the valley lies near the forest-prairie transition zone, many typical western breeding species (e.g. pintail, western meadowlark, yellow-headed blackbird) breed in proximity to typical eastern species such as tufted titmouse, eastern meadowlark, and cardinal. From 1966 to 1980, I conducted extensive surveys of avian distribution and abundance in the St. Croix River Valley. I have supplemented the results of these surveys with published and unpublished observations contributed by many ornithologists. These additional data include compilations from Christmas Bird Counts sponsored by the National Audubon Society and from the Breeding Bird Survey coordinated by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. Three hundred fourteen species have been recorded in the study area; data are presented on the migration period, nesting season distribution, winter distribution, relative abundance, and habitat use of each species. Recognizing the uniqueness of the area, and its importance not only to wildlife but also to man, the U.S. Congress designated the St. Croix a National Scenic Riverway. This action provided a considerable degree of protection to lands along and directly adjacent to the river. Unfortunately, no similar legal measure exists to protect lands away from the river. With the exception of the northern quarter of the St. Croix River Valley, agricultural interests have made significant inroads into the habitat base. The continuing expansion of the nearby Minneapolis-St. Paul metropolitan region has degraded or destroyed many woodlots, upland fields, and wetlands. In numerous instances, degradation of natural habitats has influenced the abundance and distribution of bird species. Because of these changes, both the Federal government and State Departments of Natural Resources have listed several species in various categories based on their current status. In the St. Croix River Valley, seven species are endangered, eight are threatened, and 29 are watch or priority status in either or both states. Data presented in this report are of value to land managers, land use specialists, and ornithologists, in assessing current and projected habitat alterations on the avifauna of this valley. The St. Croix River bisects a large region of western Wisconsin and east central Minnesota that exhibits a wide range of habitat types. This region supports not only birds, but many mammals, fishes, reptiles and amphibians, and several thousand species of vascular and nonvascular plants. The river itself is relatively clean through most of its course, and its natural flow is interrupted by only two small dams. Because the river lies within a 1-day drive of nearly 10 million people (Waters 1977), use of the area for recreational purposes is extremely heavy. Recreational pursuits include sunbathing, boating, and wild river kayaking in the summer, and ice fishing and cross-country skiing in the winter. The large number of unique and highly fragile habitats that exist there may never be compatible with the uses and abuses of the land that go with expanding human populations. Through the efforts of a number of citizens concerned with the quality of their environment and the foresightedness of several local, State, and Federal legislators, a portion of the upper St. Croix River Valley (hereafter termed 'the Valley') was established as a National Wild and Scenic River. Through establishment of t

North American Fauna↗
USGS2019

A generically parameterized model of lake eutrophication (GPLake) that links field-, lab- and model-based knowledge

Worldwide, eutrophication is threatening lake ecosystems. To support lake management numerous eutrophication models have been developed. Diverse research questions in a wide range of lake ecosystems are addressed by these models. The established models are based on three key approaches: the empirical approach that employs field surveys, the theoretical approach in which models based on first principles are tested against lab experiments, and the process-based approach that uses parameters and functions representing detailed biogeochemical processes. These approaches have led to an accumulation of field-, lab- and model-based knowledge, respectively. Linking these sources of knowledge would benefit lake management by exploiting complementary information; however, the development of a simple tool that links these approaches was hampered by their large differences in scale and complexity. Here we propose a Generically Parameterized Lake eutrophication model (GPLake) that links field-, lab- and model-based knowledge and can be used to make a first diagnosis of lake water quality. We derived GPLake from consumer-resource theory by the principle that lacustrine phytoplankton is typically limited by two resources: nutrients and light. These limitations are captured in two generic parameters that shape the nutrient to chlorophyll- a relations. Next, we parameterized GPLake, using knowledge from empirical, theoretical, and process-based approaches. GPLake generic parameters were found to scale in a comparable manner across data sources. Finally, we show that GPLake can be applied as a simple tool that provides lake managers with a first diagnosis of the limiting factor and lake water quality, using only the parameters for lake depth, residence time and current nutrient loading. With this first-order assessment, lake managers can easily assess measures such as reducing nutrient load, decreasing residence time or changing depth before spending money on field-, lab- or model- experiments to support lake management.

Science of the Total Environment↗
USGS2011

Seasonal variations in ectotherm growth rates: Quantifying growth as an intermittent non steady state compensatory process

Generally, growth rates of living organisms are considered to be at steady state, varying only under environmental forcing factors. For example, these rates may be described as a function of light for plants or organic food resources for animals and these could be regulated (or not) by temperature or other conditions. But, what are the consequences for an individual's growth (and also for the population growth) if growth rate variations are themselves dynamic and not steady state? For organisms presenting phases of dormancy or long periods of stress, this is a crucial question. A dynamic perspective for quantifying short-term growth was explored using the daily growth record of the scallop Pecten maximus (L.). This species is a good biological model for ectotherm growth because the shell records growth striae daily. Independently, a generic mathematical function representing the dynamics of mean daily growth rate (MDGR) was implemented to simulate a diverse set of growth patterns. Once the function was calibrated with the striae patterns, the growth rate dynamics appeared as a forced damped oscillation during the growth period having a basic periodicity during two transitory phases (mean duration 43. days) and appearing at both growth start and growth end. This phase is most likely due to the internal dynamics of energy transfer within the organism rather than to external forcing factors. After growth restart, the transitory regime represents successive phases of over-growth and regulation. This pattern corresponds to a typical representation of compensatory growth, which from an evolutionary perspective can be interpreted as an adaptive strategy to coping with a fluctuating environment.

Journal of Sea Research↗
USGS1982

Arizona Vegetation Resource Inventory (AVRI) accuracy assessment

A quantitative accuracy assessment was performed for the vegetation classification map produced as part of the Arizona Vegetation Resource Inventory (AVRI) project. This project was a cooperative effort between the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) and the Earth Resources Observation Systems (EROS) Data Center. The objective of the accuracy assessment was to estimate (with a precision of ?10 percent at the 90 percent confidence level) the comission error in each of the eight level II hierarchical vegetation cover types. A stratified two-phase (double) cluster sample was used. Phase I consisted of 160 photointerpreted plots representing clusters of Landsat pixels, and phase II consisted of ground data collection at 80 of the phase I cluster sites. Ground data were used to refine the phase I error estimates by means of a linear regression model. The classified image was stratified by assigning each 15-pixel cluster to the stratum corresponding to the dominant cover type within each cluster. This method is known as stratified plurality sampling. Overall error was estimated to be 36 percent with a standard error of 2 percent. Estimated error for individual vegetation classes ranged from a low of 10 percent ?6 percent for evergreen woodland to 81 percent ?7 percent for cropland and pasture. Total cost of the accuracy assessment was $106,950 for the one-million-hectare study area. The combination of the stratified plurality sampling (SPS) method of sample allocation with double sampling provided the desired estimates within the required precision levels. The overall accuracy results confirmed that highly accurate digital classification of vegetation is difficult to perform in semiarid environments, due largely to the sparse vegetation cover. Nevertheless, these techniques show promise for providing more accurate information than is presently available for many BLM-administered lands.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2017

Foundations of translational ecology

Ecologists who specialize in translational ecology (TE) seek to link ecological knowledge to decision making by integrating ecological science with the full complement of social dimensions that underlie today's complex environmental issues. TE is motivated by a search for outcomes that directly serve the needs of natural resource managers and decision makers. This objective distinguishes it from both basic and applied ecological research and, as a practice, it deliberately extends research beyond theory or opportunistic applications. TE is uniquely positioned to address complex issues through interdisciplinary team approaches and integrated scientist–practitioner partnerships. The creativity and context‐specific knowledge of resource managers, practitioners, and decision makers inform and enrich the scientific process and help shape use‐driven, actionable science. Moreover, addressing research questions that arise from on‐the‐ground management issues – as opposed to the top‐down or expert‐oriented perspectives of traditional science – can foster the high levels of trust and commitment that are critical for long‐term, sustained engagement between partners.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗
USGS2016

Smokey comes of age: Unmanned aerial systems for fire management

During the past century, fire management has focused on techniques both to protect human communities from catastrophic wildfire and to maintain fire-dependent ecological systems. However, despite a large and increasing allocation of resources and personnel to achieve these goals, fire management objectives at regional to global scales are not being met. Current fire management techniques are clearly inadequate for the challenges faced by fire managers, and technological innovations are needed. Advances in unmanned aerial systems (UAS) technology provide opportunities for innovation in fire management and science. In many countries, fire management organizations are beginning to explore the potential of UAS for monitoring fires. We have taken the next step and developed a prototype that can precisely ignite fires as part of wildfire suppression tactics or prescribed fires (fire intentionally ignited within predetermined conditions to reduce hazardous fuels, improve habitat, or mitigate for large wildfires). We discuss the potential for these technologies to benefit fire management activities, while acknowledging the sizeable sociopolitical barriers that prevent their immediate broad application.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗
USGS2017

Recruitment phenology and pelagic larval duration in Caribbean amphidromous fishes

Amphidromous fishes are major components of oceanic tropical island stream ecosystems, such as those of the Caribbean island, Puerto Rico. Fishes with this life history face threats related to the requirement for connectivity between freshwater and marine environments during early life stages. Pelagic larval duration and recruitment phenology are 2 early life-history processes that are crucial for the biology, ecology, conservation, and management of amphidromous fishes. However, these processes are understudied in the Caribbean in general and have never been quantified in Puerto Rico. We quantified recruit abundance, recruitment phenology, and pelagic larval duration of several Caribbean amphidromous fish species in multiple rivers in Puerto Rico and explored the effects of environmental variables on recruit abundances. Two fish taxa—sirajo goby ( Sicydium spp.) and River Goby ( Awaous banana )—were exceptionally abundant as postlarvae and recruited to Caribbean rivers in pulsed migration episodes that were periodic at annual and lunar scales. Sirajo goby and River Goby recruit abundances varied among rivers, were greater at sunrise than at sunset, and were positively related to river discharge. The pelagic larval duration of 4 fish taxa ranged from a minimum of 28 d to a maximum of 103 d with means between 43 ± 7 d (SD) and 65 ± 11 d. We identified the last-quarter moon phase during the months of June through January as periods of maximum amphidromous fish recruitment to freshwater streams. The results and conclusions of our study can be applied to identify critical times to maintain river–ocean connectivity and stream flow for the benefit of the amphidromous fish population dynamics, stream ecology, and natural resources of the Caribbean.

Puerto Rico↗
USGS2009

Coastal Circulation and Sediment Dynamics in War-in-the-Pacific National Historical Park, Guam; measurements of waves, currents, temperature, salinity, and turbidity, June 2007-January 2008

Flow in and around coral reefs affects a number of physical, chemical and biologic processes that influence the health and sustainability of coral reef ecosystems. These range from the residence time of sediment and contaminants to nutrient uptake and larval retention and dispersal. As currents approach a coast they diverge to flow around reef structures, causing high horizontal and vertical shear. This can result in either the rapid advection of material in localized jets, or the retention of material in eddies that form in the lee of bathymetric features. The high complexity and diversity both within and between reefs, in conjunction with past technical restrictions, has limited our understanding of the nature of flow and the resulting flux of physical, chemical, and biologic material in these fragile ecosystems. Sediment, nutrients, and other pollutants from a variety of land-based activities adversely impact many coral reef ecosystems in the U.S. and around the world. These pollutants are transported in surface water runoff, groundwater seepage, and atmospheric fallout into coastal waters, and there is compelling evidence that the sources have increased globally as a result of human-induced changes to watersheds. In Guam, and elsewhere on U.S. high islands in the Pacific and Caribbean, significant changes in the drainage basins due to agriculture, feral grazing, fires, and urbanization have in turn altered the character and volume of land-based pollution released to coral reefs. Terrigenous sediment run-off (and the associated nutrients and contaminants often absorbed to it) and deposition on coral reefs are recognized to potentially have significant impact on coral health by blocking light and inhibiting photosynthesis, directly smothering and abrading coral, and triggering increases in macro algae. Studies that combine information on watershed, surface water- and groundwater-flow, transport and fate of sediment and other pollutants in the reef environment, and their impact on reef health and ecology are essential for effective reef management. Two of the main anthropogenic activities along west-central Guam's coastline that may impact the region's coral reef ecosystems include pollution and coastal land use/development, as discussed in the review by Porter and others (2005). The pollution threats include point-sources, such as municipal wastewater (Northern District, Hagatna, Naval Station Guam, and Agat-Santa Rita Waster Water Treatment Plants), cooling water (Tanguisson Steam and Cabras Power Plants), and numerous storm water, ballast water, and tank bottom draw outfalls; nonpoint sources include septic systems, urban runoff, illegal dumping, and groundwater discharges. Poor land-use practices include development without the use of runoff management measures, increased areal extent of impervious surfaces and decreased extent of vegetative barriers, and recreational off-road vehicle use. Furthermore, feral ungulates and illegal wildfires remove protective vegetative cover and generally result in increased soil erosion. While anthropogenic point-sources have been reduced in many areas due to better management practices, nonpoint sources have either stayed constant or increased. Between 1975 and 1999, it is estimated that Guam lost more than a quarter of its tree cover, and more than 750 wildfires each year have resulted in a greater proportion of badlands and other erosion-prone land surfaces with high erosion rates (Forestry and Soil Resources Division, 1999). Approximately 1.8 square kilometers (km2) of Asan Bay, west-central Guam, lies within the National Park Service's (NPS) War-in-the-Pacific National Historical Park's (WAPA) Asan Unit; the bay is the sink for material coming out of the Asan watershed. Anthropogenic modifications of the watersheds adjacent to Asan Bay, which include intentionally-set wildfires, construction, and agriculture (Minton, 2005), are believed to have increased over the past 25

Open-File Report↗
USGS2007

Use of stage data to characterize hydrologic conditions in an urbanizing environment

This paper presents the results of a study on the use of continuous stage data to describe the relation between urban development and three aspects of hydrologic condition that are thought to influence stream ecosystems - overall stage variability, stream flashiness, and the duration of extreme- stage conditions . This relation is examined using data from more than 70 watersheds in three contrasting environmental settings - the humid Northeast (the metropolitan Boston, Massachusetts, area); the very humid Southeast (the metropolitan Birmingham, Alabama, area); and the semiarid West (the metropolitan Salt Lake City, Utah, area). Results from the Birmingham and Boston studies provide evidence linking increased urbanization with stream flashiness. Fragmentation of developed land cover patches appears to ameliorate the effects of urbanization on overall variability and flashiness. There was less success in relating urbanization and streamflow conditions in the Salt Lake City study. A related investigation of six North Carolina sites with long term discharge and stage data indicated that hydrologic condition metrics developed using continuous stage data are comparable to flow based metrics, particularly for stream flashiness measures.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗
USGS2026

Design and function of the Autonomous Benthic Imaging and Surveying System (ABISS) for remote sensing of lake and seabed environments

Lake and seabed environments are home to fisheries and other biota that are important to ecosystems and economies, yet these environments and the species that use them are difficult to accurately assess and monitor. Traditional benthic survey techniques, like bottom trawling used by the U.S. Geological Survey, are limited by substrate constraints, poor spatial resolution and precision, and operational depth limits, hindering accurate assessment of benthic species and habitats. In response to these limitations, the U.S. Geological Survey developed the Autonomous Benthic Imaging and Surveying System, a camera system integrated into underwater vehicles, to capture high-resolution images of the lakebed. The system uses color and stereo cameras to collect imagery, which can be analyzed using computational methods to detect organisms and (or) characterize habitat features, such as geologic substrate types. The system has been integrated into autonomous underwater vehicles and into an underwater housing used by self-contained underwater breathing apparatus (SCUBA) divers. Although the engineering of the system was motivated by the need for data collection in the Great Lakes, it has potential to collect high quality data in any aqueous setting with sufficient water clarity and safe operating conditions. The Autonomous Benthic Imaging and Surveying System can operate across diverse depths and light conditions to map and quantify ecological patterns that were difficult or impossible to assess using traditional methods. The Autonomous Benthic Imaging and Surveying System offers the potential for accurate and precise monitoring and assessment of native benthic biota, invasive species, and habitat, potentially providing natural resource managers with improved information to support decision making about benthic resource management.

Great Lakes↗
USGS2017

Building translational ecology communities of practice: insights from the field

Translational ecology (TE) prioritizes the understanding of social systems and decision contexts in order to address complex natural resource management issues. Although many practitioners in applied fields employ translational tactics, the body of literature addressing such approaches is limited. We present several case studies illustrating the principles of TE and the diversity of its applications. We anticipate that these examples will help others develop scientific products that decision makers can use “off the shelf” when solving critical ecological and social challenges. Our collective experience suggests that research of such immediate utility is rare. Long‐term commitment to working directly with partners to develop and reach shared goals is central to successful translation. The examples discussed here highlight the benefits of translational processes, including actionable scientific results, more informed policy making, increased investment in science‐driven solutions, and inspiration for partnerships. We aim to facilitate future TE‐based projects and build momentum for growing this community of practice.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗
USGS2025

An expert elicitation to inform coastal management decision-making for mitigating future hazards

A scientific expert elicitation was conducted to address the feasibility of restoring coastal environments in response to future hazards to best meet management objectives. Subject matter experts produced probabilistic estimates of coastal change metrics used to evaluate decision objectives and alternatives informed by a stakeholder advisory group. Changes in salt marsh extents, storm surge flooding and barrier island morphology by the year 2050 were estimated for three scenarios of management actions (no action, interior headland restoration, beach and dune nourishment), while also considering the effects of future sea level rise (SLR). Collectively the participants were confident in their expectations of increased storm surge flooding with SLR, regardless of management interventions. Estimates of marsh response had large uncertainty, but experts generally hypothesized that marsh area would decrease with increasing SLR if no action was taken, especially in areas already experiencing marsh deterioration. There was agreement that dune heights and barrier island widths would decrease with SLR if no action was taken. Experts felt that beach and dune nourishment may reduce the amount of erosion under future SLR. All experts recognized the dynamic effects of SLR and feedback between bio-geo-physical processes that govern coastal systems. Participants agreed that size and location of management actions were important factors for influencing the coastal response. Expert elicitation is novel in the context of coastal management decision making and can be a useful tool for informing future scientific needs and providing rapid results to end users to inform reallocation of resources surrounding research and application.

Alabama, Mississippi↗