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At least 1,693 records · Page 94Linked to original sources
USGS2023

Nest traits and major flooding events influence nest survival of Emperor Geese while regional environmental variation linked to climate does not

The reproductive ecology of geese that breed in the Arctic and subarctic is likely susceptible to the effects of climate change, which is projected to alter the environmental conditions of northern latitudes. Nest survival is an important component of productivity in geese; however, the effects of regional environmental conditions on nest survival are not well understood for some species, including the Emperor Goose ( Anser canagicus ), a species of conservation concern that is endemic to the Bering Sea region. We estimated nest survival and examined how indices of regional environmental conditions, nest traits (nest age, initiation date, and maximum number of eggs in the nest), and researcher disturbance influenced daily survival probability (DSP) of Emperor Goose nests using hierarchical models and 24 years of nest monitoring data (1994–2017) from the Yukon–Kuskokwim Delta (Y–K Delta) in western Alaska. Our results indicate that overall nest survival was generally high (µ = 0.766, 95% CRI: 0.655–0.849) and ranged from 0.327 (95% CRI: 0.176–0.482) in 2013 to 0.905 (95% CRI: 0.839–0.953) in 1995. We found that DSPs of nests were influenced by nest traits, negatively influenced by major tidal flooding events and by researcher disturbance, but were not influenced by regional indices of spring timing, temperature and precipitation during nesting, or fox and vole abundance on the Y–K Delta. However, the number of nests found each year was negatively related to our index of fox abundance, suggesting nests that failed as a result of fox predation may have never been discovered due to our limited nest-searching efforts during egg laying. Our results suggest that regional environmental variation had minimal influence on the nest survival of Emperor Geese, although major flooding events were important. Nevertheless, we suspect that within-year variation in local weather conditions and local abundance of predators and alternative prey may be important and should be considered in future studies.

Alaska↗
USGS2015

Hydrological, water-quality, and ecological data for streams in Independence, Missouri, June 2005 through September 2013

Water-quality, hydrological, and ecological data collected from June 2005 through September 2013 from the Little Blue River and smaller streams within the City of Independence, Missouri, are presented in this report. These data were collected as a part of an ongoing cooperative study between the U.S. Geological Survey and the City of Independence Water Pollution Control Department to characterize the water quality and ecological condition of Independence streams. The quantities, sources of selected constituents, and processes affecting water quality and aquatic life were evaluated to determine the resulting ecological condition of streams within Independence. Data collected for this study fulfill the municipal separate sewer system permit requirements for the City of Independence and can be used to provide a baseline with which city managers can determine the effectiveness of current (2014) and future best management practices within Independence. Continuous streamflow and water-quality data, collected during base flow and stormflow, included physical and chemical properties, inorganic constituents, common organic micro-constituents, pesticides in streambed sediment and surface water, fecal indicator bacteria and microbial source tracking data, and suspended sediment. Dissolved oxygen, pH, specific conductance, water temperature, and turbidity data were measured continuously at seven sites within Independence. Base-flow and stormflow samples were collected at eight gaged and two ungaged sites. Fecal sources samples were collected for reference for microbial source tracking, and sewage influent samples were collected as additional source samples. Dry-weather screening was done on 11 basins within Independence to identify potential contaminant sources to the streams. Benthic macroinvertebrate community surveys and habitat assessments were done on 10 stream sites and 2 comparison sites outside the city. Sampling and laboratory procedures and quality-assurance and quality-control methods used in data collection for this study are described in this report.

Missouri↗
USGS2007

Life history and ecological characteristics of the Santa Ana sucker, Catostomus santaanae

This study was conducted to document the life history and ecological characteristics of the Santa Ana sucker, Catostomus santaanae, within its native range in southern California. Electrofishing surveys were conducted at 3-month intervals from December 1998 to December 1999 at one site on the San Gabriel River and two sites on the Santa Ana River. Suckers were captured in the San Gabriel River (average, 6.6 fish/10- minutes electrofishing) and at an upstream Santa Ana River site (average, 2.3 fish/10-minutes electrofishing) but not at a downstream Santa Ana River site. Length frequency distributions indicated that at least three year classes (modal groups) of suckers were present in the San Gabriel River, whereas one or two year classes were present in the Santa Ana River. Collection of 21-30 mm standard length (SL) juveniles in June in the Santa Ana River and in September in the San Gabriel River indicated that reproduction occurred over several months. In December, Age-0 suckers averaged 36-48 mm SL in the San Gabriel River and 63-65 mm SL in the Santa Ana River, whereas Age-1 suckers averaged 86 mm SL in the San Gabriel River and 115 mm SL in the Santa Ana River. On average, suckers were in better body condition in the San Gabriel River than in the Santa Ana River. Highest abundance of suckers was associated with relatively pristine environmental conditions (especially low specific conductance) where other native fishes were also common or abundant.

California Fish and Game↗
USGS2023

Appendix D: Synthesis element 1 (revised): Water temperature effects on fisheries and stream health in nontidal waters

A limited review of relevant scientific literature related to temperature sensitivities of fish species, stream health indicators, and any related geospatial information was conducted. Based on this review, we provide a syntheses of information related to nontidal waters in the Chesapeake Bay Rising stream temperatures will have a range of impacts on nontidal aquatic ecosystems. Cold headwaters and associated species like brook trout and sculpin are especially vulnerable to higher stream temperatures. Efforts could be taken to identify and protect high quality resilient cold headwater brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) habitat. More information on groundwater impacts on stream temperatures and ecologically relevant temperature thresholds for species of concern could help resource managers identify temperature resilient habitats and populations. A vulnerability assessment could be valuable to better understand the drivers and stressors of rising stream temperatures, their effects on aquatic resources, and the risk to fish and other aquatic species. Further research could help in developing and fully vetting a complete list of cold/cool water benthic macroinvertebrate taxa and freshwater mussel taxa that are vulnerable to temperature change in the Chesapeake watershed.

Report↗
USGS2008

Calibrating and testing a gap model for simulating forest management in the Oregon Coast Range

The complex mix of economic and ecological objectives facing today's forest managers necessitates the development of growth models with a capacity for simulating a wide range of forest conditions while producing outputs useful for economic analyses. We calibrated the gap model ZELIG to simulate stand-level forest development in the Oregon Coast Range as part of a landscape-scale assessment of different forest management strategies. Our goal was to incorporate the predictive ability of an empirical model with the flexibility of a forest succession model. We emphasized the development of commercial-aged stands of Douglas-fir, the dominant tree species in the study area and primary source of timber. In addition, we judged that the ecological approach of ZELIG would be robust to the variety of other forest conditions and practices encountered in the Coast Range, including mixed-species stands, small-scale gap formation, innovative silvicultural methods, and reserve areas where forests grow unmanaged for long periods of time. We parameterized the model to distinguish forest development among two ecoregions, three forest types and two site productivity classes using three data sources: chronosequences of forest inventory data, long-term research data, and simulations from an empirical growth-and-yield model. The calibrated model was tested with independent, long-term measurements from 11 Douglas-fir plots (6 unthinned, 5 thinned), 3 spruce-hemlock plots, and 1 red alder plot. ZELIG closely approximated developmental trajectories of basal area and large trees in the Douglas-fir plots. Differences between simulated and observed conifer basal area for these plots ranged from -2.6 to 2.4 m2/ha; differences in the number of trees/ha ???50 cm dbh ranged from -8.8 to 7.3 tph. Achieving these results required the use of a diameter-growth multiplier, suggesting some underlying constraints on tree growth such as the temperature response function. ZELIG also tended to overestimate regeneration of shade-tolerant trees and underestimate total tree density (i.e., higher rates of tree mortality). However, comparisons with the chronosequences of forest inventory data indicated that the simulated data are within the range of variability observed in the Coast Range. Further exploration and improvement of ZELIG is warranted in three key areas: (1) modeling rapid rates of conifer tree growth without the need for a diameter-growth multiplier; (2) understanding and remedying rates of tree mortality that were higher than those observed in the independent data; and (3) improving the tree regeneration module to account for competition with understory vegetation. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V.

Forest Ecology and Management↗
USGS2007

A comparison of macroinvertebrate and habitat methods of data collection in the Little Colorado River Watershed, Arizona 2007

The Arizona Department of Environmental Quality (ADEQ) and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) Ecological Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP), use different field methods for collecting macroinvertebrate samples and habitat data for bioassessment purposes. Arizona’s Biocriteria index was developed using a riffle habitat sampling methodology, whereas the EMAP method employs a multi-habitat sampling protocol. There was a need to demonstrate comparability of these different bioassessment methodologies to allow use of the EMAP multi-habitat protocol for both statewide probabilistic assessments for integration of the EMAP data into the national (305b) assessment and for targeted in-state bioassessments for 303d determinations of standards violations and impaired aquatic life conditions. The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether the two methods yield similar bioassessment results, such that the data could be used interchangeably in water quality assessments. In this Regional EMAP grant funded project, a probabilistic survey of 30 sites in the Little Colorado River basin was conducted in the spring of 2007. Macroinvertebrate and habitat data were collected using both ADEQ and EMAP sampling methods, from adjacent reaches within these stream channels. All analyses indicated that the two macroinvertebrate sampling methods were significantly correlated. ADEQ and EMAP samples were classified into the same scoring categories (meeting, inconclusive, violating the biocriteria standard) 82% of the time. When the ADEQ-IBI was applied to both the ADEQ and EMAP taxa lists, the resulting IBI scores were significantly correlated (r=0.91), even though only 4 of the 7 metrics in the IBI were significantly correlated. The IBI scores from both methods were significantly correlated to the percent of riffle habitat, even though the average percent riffle habitat was only 30% of the stream reach. Multivariate analyses found that the percent riffle was an important attribute for both datasets in classifying IBI scores into assessment categories. Habitat measurements generated from EMAP and ADEQ methods were also significantly correlated; 13 of 16 habitat measures were significantly correlated (p<0.01). The visual-based percentage estimates of percent riffle and pool habitats, vegetative cover and percent canopy cover, and substrate measurements of percent fine substrate and embeddedness were all remarkably similar, given the different field methods used. A multivariate analysis identified substrate and flow conditions, as well as canopy cover as important combinations of habitat attributes affecting both IBI scores. These results indicate that similar habitat measures can be obtained using two different field sampling protocols. In addition, similar combinations of these habitat parameters were important to macroinvertebrate community condition in multivariate analyses of both ADEQ and EMAP datasets. These results indicate the two sampling methods for macroinvertebrates and habitat data were very similar in terms of bioassessment results and stressors. While the bioassessment category was not identical for all sites, overall the assessments were significantly correlated, providing similar bioassessment results for the cold water streams used in this study. The findings of this study indicate that ADEQ can utilize either a riffle-based sampling methodology or a multi-habitat sampling approach in cold water streams as both yield similar results relative to the macroinvertebrate assemblage. These results will allow for use of either macroinvertebrate dataset to determine water quality standards compliance with the ADEQ Indexes of Biological Integrity, for which threshold values were just recently placed into the Arizona Surface Water Quality Standards. While this survey did not include warm water desert streams of Arizona, we would predict that EMAP and ADEQ sampling methodologies would provide similar bioassessment results and would not be significantly different, as we have found that the percent riffle habitat in cold and warm water perennial, wadeable streams is not significantly different. However, a comparison study of sampling methodologies in warm water streams should be conducted to confirm the predicted similarity of bioassessment results. ADEQ will continue to implement a monitoring strategy that includes probabilistic monitoring for a statewide ecological assessment of stream conditions. Conclusions from this study will guide decisions regarding the most appropriate sampling methods for future probabilistic monitoring sample plans.

Arizona↗
USGS2022

Precision and bias of spatial capture–recapture estimates: A multi-site, multi-year Utah black bear case study

Spatial capture–recapture (SCR) models are powerful analytical tools that have become the standard for estimating abundance and density of wild animal populations. When sampling populations to implement SCR, the number of unique individuals detected, total recaptures, and unique spatial relocations can be highly variable. These sample sizes influence the precision and accuracy of model parameter estimates. Testing the performance of SCR models with sparse empirical data sets typical of low-density, wide-ranging species can inform the threshold at which a more integrated modeling approach with additional data sources or additional years of monitoring may be required to achieve reliable, precise parameter estimates. Using a multi-site, multi-year Utah black bear ( Ursus americanus ) capture–recapture data set, we evaluated factors influencing the uncertainty of SCR structural parameter estimates, specifically density, detection, and the spatial scale parameter, sigma. We also provided some of the first SCR density estimates for Utah black bear populations, which ranged from 3.85 to 74.33 bears/100 km 2 . Increasing total detections decreased the uncertainty of density estimates, whereas an increasing number of total recaptures and individuals with recaptures decreased the uncertainty of detection and sigma estimates, respectively. In most cases, multiple years of data were required for precise density estimates (<0.2 coefficient of variation [CV]). Across study areas there was an average decline in CV of 0.07 with the addition of another year of data. One sampled population with very high estimated bear density had an atypically low number of spatial recaptures relative to total recaptures, apparently inflating density estimates. A complementary simulation study used to assess estimate bias suggested that when <30% of recaptured individuals were spatially recaptured, density estimates were unreliable and ranged widely, in some cases to >3 times the simulated density. Additional research could evaluate these requirements for other density scenarios. Large numbers of individuals detected, numbers of spatial recaptures, and precision alone may not be sufficient indicators of parameter estimate reliability. We provide an evaluation of simple summary statistics of capture–recapture data sets that can provide an early signal of the need to alter sampling design or collect auxiliary data before model implementation to improve estimate precision and accuracy.

Utah↗
USGS2017

Genetic differentiation and inferred dynamics of a hybrid zone between Northern Spotted Owls (Strix occidentalis caurina) and California Spotted Owls (S. o. occidentalis) in northern California

Genetic differentiation among Spotted Owl ( Strix occidentalis ) subspecies has been established in prior studies. These investigations also provided evidence for introgression and hybridization among taxa but were limited by a lack of samples from geographic regions where subspecies came into close contact. We analyzed new sets of samples from Northern Spotted Owls (NSO: S. o. caurina ) and California Spotted Owls (CSO: S. o. occidentalis ) in northern California using mitochondrial DNA sequences (mtDNA) and 10 nuclear microsatellite loci to obtain a clearer depiction of genetic differentiation and hybridization in the region. Our analyses revealed that a NSO population close to the northern edge of the CSO range in northern California (the NSO Contact Zone population) is highly differentiated relative to other NSO populations throughout the remainder of their range. Phylogenetic analyses identified a unique lineage of mtDNA in the NSO Contact Zone, and Bayesian clustering analyses of the microsatellite data identified the Contact Zone as a third distinct population that is differentiated from CSO and NSO found in the remainder of the subspecies' range. Hybridization between NSO and CSO was readily detected in the NSO Contact Zone, with over 50% of individuals showing evidence of hybrid ancestry. Hybridization was also identified among 14% of CSO samples, which were dispersed across the subspecies' range in the Sierra Nevada Mountains. The asymmetry of hybridization suggested that the hybrid zone may be dynamic and moving. Although evidence of hybridization existed, we identified no F1 generation hybrid individuals. We instead found evidence for F2 or backcrossed individuals among our samples. The absence of F1 hybrids may indicate that (1) our 10 microsatellites were unable to distinguish hybrid types, (2) primary interactions between subspecies are occurring elsewhere on the landscape, or (3) dispersal between the subspecies' ranges is reduced relative to historical levels, potentially as a consequence of recent regional fires.

California↗
USGS2019

Influence of climate change and postdelisting management on long-term population viability of the conservation-reliant Kirtland's Warbler

Rapid global climate change is resulting in novel abiotic and biotic conditions and interactions. Identifying management strategies that maximize probability of long-term persistence requires an understanding of the vulnerability of species to environmental changes. We sought to quantify the vulnerability of Kirtland's Warbler ( Setophaga kirtlandii ), a rare Neotropical migratory songbird that breeds almost exclusively in the Lower Peninsula of Michigan and winters in the Bahamian Archipelago, to projected environmental changes on the breeding and wintering grounds. We developed a population-level simulation model that incorporates the influence of annual environmental conditions on the breeding and wintering grounds, and parameterized the model using empirical relationships. We simulated independent and additive effects of reduced breeding grounds habitat quantity and quality, and wintering grounds habitat quality, on population viability. Our results indicated the Kirtland's Warbler population is stable under current environmental and management conditions. Reduced breeding grounds habitat quantity resulted in reductions of the stable population size, but did not cause extinction under the scenarios we examined. In contrast, projected large reductions in wintering grounds precipitation caused the population to decline, with risk of extinction magnified when breeding habitat quantity or quality also decreased. Our study indicates that probability of long-term persistence for Kirtland's Warbler will depend on climate change impacts to wintering grounds habitat quality and contributes to the growing literature documenting the importance of considering the full annual cycle for understanding population dynamics of migratory species.

Michigan↗
USGS2019

Species insurance trumps spatial insurance in stabilizing biomass of a marine macroalgal metacommunity

Because natural ecosystems are complex, it is difficult to predict how their variability scales across space and levels of organization. The species‐insurance hypothesis predicts that asynchronous dynamics among species should reduce variability when biomass is aggregated either from local species populations to local multispecies communities, or from metapopulations to metacommunities. Similarly, the spatial‐insurance hypothesis predicts that asynchronous spatial dynamics among either local populations or local communities should stabilize metapopulation biomass and metacommunity biomass, respectively. In combination, both species and spatial insurance reduce variation in metacommunity biomass over time, yet these insurances are rarely considered together in natural systems. We partitioned the extent that species insurance and spatial insurance reduced the annual variation in macroalgal biomass in a southern California kelp forest. We quantified variability and synchrony at two levels of organization (population and community) and two spatial scales (local plots and region) and quantified the strength of species and spatial insurance by comparing observed variability and synchrony in aggregate biomass to null models of independent species or spatial dynamics based on cyclic‐shift permutation. Spatial insurance was weak, presumably because large‐scale oceanographic processes in the study region led to high spatial synchrony at both population‐ and community‐level biomass. Species insurance was stronger due to asynchronous dynamics among the metapopulations of a few common species. In particular, a regional decline in the dominant understory kelp species Pterygophora californica was compensated for by the rise of three subdominant species. These compensatory dynamics were associated with positive values of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, indicating that differential species tolerances to warmer temperature and nutrient‐poor conditions may underlie species insurance in this system. Our results illustrate how species insurance can stabilize aggregate community properties in natural ecosystems where environmental conditions vary over broad spatial scales.

Ecology↗
USGS2020

Effects of latitude, season, and temperature on Lake Sturgeon movement

Ecologists have a limited understanding of the rangewide variation in movement behavior in freshwater fishes, but recent expansion of biotelemetry allows biologists to investigate how fish movement can help to predict behavioral shifts in response to changing environments. The Lake Sturgeon Acipenser fulvescens is a wide-ranging, migratory, coolwater species, making it a candidate species for studying patterns in movement ecology. We conducted a literature review and meta-analysis of seasonal movement data compiled from 38 Lake Sturgeon telemetry studies in North America to build an understanding of spatiotemporal variation in movement behavior. Lake Sturgeon movement studies were underrepresented for low-latitude populations in the Mississippi, Missouri, and Ohio/Tennessee River basins. Highest movement usually occurred during spring spawning migrations, whereas other populations exhibited their highest movement in the fall, potentially in order to overwinter near spawning grounds. Our meta-regression analysis indicated that latitude or summer maximum temperature best predicted standardized mean difference between spring and summer movement in Lake Sturgeon populations across the species’ range. Our results suggest that Lake Sturgeon populations at lower latitudes and those that experience warmer summer temperatures have lower summer movement relative to spring movement. Managers may use this information to prioritize actions promoting the conservation of seasonally important habitats for the continued recovery of migratory coolwater fish (e.g., Lake Sturgeon) that potentially experience stressful thermal conditions.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗
USGS2018

Acoustic telemetry and benthic habitat mapping inform the spatial ecology of Shortnose Sturgeon in the Hudson River, New York, USA

A history of overexploitation and industrialization of riverine habitats has impacted the Shortnose Sturgeon Acipenser brevirostrum , leading this species to become one of the earliest listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. The present understanding of Shortnose Sturgeon spatial ecology is based on observations from a limited number of Atlantic coastal rivers. To better understand Shortnose Sturgeon in the Hudson River, New York, we used acoustic telemetry to characterize seasonal habitat use and to identify regions of the river where seasonal sturgeon activity occurred. From 2012 to 2016, 101 adult fish were tagged and tracked, and sturgeon detections per unit effort (a metric of fish observation standardized by search effort) were evaluated against benthic habitat variables by using generalized additive regression models. Models indicated strong habitat associations in the spring season defined by gravel-dominated substrates and specific depth ranges, presumably associated with spawning activity. During summer, Shortnose Sturgeon were more dispersed, associating with muddy habitats, whereas in fall/winter, sturgeon congregated in specific regions of the river. These data demonstrate that river use and habitat associations vary seasonally and identify important areas for managing overlap between seasonal habitat use by Shortnose Sturgeon and human activity on the river.

New York↗
USGS2007

Littoral fish assemblages of the alien-dominated Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, California, 1980-1983 and 2001-2003

We analyzed monthly boat electrofishing data to characterize the littoral fish assemblages of five regions of the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (northern, southern, eastern, western, and central), California, during two sampling periods, 1980-1983 (1980s) and 2001-2003 (2000s), to provide information pertinent to the restoration of fish populations in this highly altered estuary. During the 1980s, almost 11,000 fish were captured, including 13 native species and 24 alien species. During the 2000s, just over 39,000 fish were captured, including 15 native species and 24 alien species. Catch per unit effort (CPUE) of total fish, alien fish, and centrarchid fish were greater in the 2000s compared with the 1980s, largely because of increased centrarchid fish CPUE. These differences in CPUE were associated with the spread of submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV), particularly an alien aquatic macrophyte Egeria densa. Native fish CPUE declined from the 1980s to the 2000s, but there was no single factor that could explain the decline. Native fish were most abundant in the northern region during both sampling periods. Nonmetric multidimensional scaling indicated similar patterns of fish assemblage composition during the two sampling periods, with the northern and western regions characterized by the presence of native species. The separation of the northern and western regions from the other regions was most distinct in the 2000s. Our results suggest that native fish restoration efforts will be most successful in the northern portion of the Delta. Management decisions on the Delta should include consideration of possible effects on SAV in littoral habitats and the associated fish assemblages and ecological processes.

California↗
USGS2021

Establishment of baseline cytology metrics in nestling American kestrels (Falco sparverius): Immunomodulatory effects of the flame retardant isopropylated triarylphosphate isomers

Avian populations must mount effective immune responses upon exposure to environmental stressors such as avian influenza and xenobiotics. Although multiple immune assays have been tested and applied to various avian species, antibody-mediated immune responses in non-model avian species are not commonly reported due to the lack of commercially available species-specific antibodies. The objectives of the present study were to advance methods for studying wild bird immune responses and to apply these to the evaluation of cytological responses after exposure of American kestrels, Falco sparverius, to a commercial flame retardant mixture containing isopropylated triarylphosphate isomers (ITP). Hatchlings were gavaged daily with safflower oil or 1.5 ug/g bw/day of ITP suspended in safflower oil, then bled on days 9, 17, and 21. The ITP treatment group ( n = 18) and a subset of controls (Poly I:C treatment group; n = 10) were injected on days 9 and 15 with a synthetic analog of viral double-stranded RNA, polyinosinic:polycytidylic acid (Poly I:C), a toll-like receptor ligand and synthetic viral mimic, and responses compared to a sham injected control group (n = 8). The hypotheses tested whether kestrels showed immunological differences among treatment groups, genetic sex, and/or white blood cell (WBC) subpopulation type over time. A flow cytometry (FCM) gating strategy categorized heterophils (H), lymphocytes (L), and monocytes (M) and their proportions, and measured relative fluorescence in response to anti-chicken CD4 binding. Fluorescent cell surfaces and some granular/vacuolar inclusions were visualized by epifluorescence microscopy. A fourth subpopulation with higher levels of granularity than M but less than H became increasingly apparent with time and was gated along with the H subpopulation; its frequency of occurrence was lowest in the ITP group ( P = 0.0023). The percentages of cells differed among treatment groups, days, and sexes ( P = 0.0001). For both sexes, percentages of H and L were higher than M in control and Poly I:C. In the ITP group, L percentages were higher than H and M ( P = 0.0457), and H and L were higher than M on days 9 and 21 ( P = 0.0001). The ratios of H:L and H:WBC, indicators of robust immunity, were also higher on days 9 and 21 than on 17 ( P = 0.0079). For each sex, the highest levels of activity measured by FCM geometric means (GEO) of fluorescence (indicative of antibody binding) were observed on day 9 ( P = 0.0001 female, and P = 0.0011 male) in H over both L and M ( P < 0.0001 for each). In males, GEO of the Poly I:C group was higher than that of the ITP group ( P = 0.0374), with no difference observed among females over all days. By using a FCM algorithm for population comparisons of fluorescence to investigate binding within H, the T(x) scores indicated higher fluorescence in control and Poly I:C groups over ITP ( P = 0.0001). Unlike chickens, Gallus gallus , which express CD4 primarily on L, kestrels bound the commercial antibody primarily within the gated H subpopulation, suggesting an immunophenotypic difference between taxa, despite a ~60% identity of Falco CD4 amino acid sequences with chicken CD4. The emergent cell subset within the gated H presented dendritic-like cell (DLC) morphological and functional properties, apparently serving as an effector cell. This study adds interpretive context to ecological investigations of infection and of potential immunomodulation by emerging compounds, whereby the early innate responses are mediated by the various cell subsets serving as useful quantitative markers of immunological condition. Data showed that dietary exposure to ITP was immunosuppressive for male and female kestrels over the course of the experiment, reducing DLC frequency compared to the Poly I:C controls. Heterophils and DLC were important in facilitating innate immunological responses.

Environment International↗
USGS2024

Using an adaptive modeling framework to identify avian influenza spillover risk at the wild-domestic interface

The wild to domestic bird interface is an important nexus for emergence and transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses. Although the recent incursion of HPAI H5N1 Clade 2.3.4.4b into North America calls for emergency response and planning given the unprecedented scale, readily available data-driven models are lacking. Here, we provide high resolution spatial and temporal transmission risk models for the contiguous United States. Considering virus host ecology, we included weekly species-level wild waterfowl (Anatidae) abundance and endemic low pathogenic avian influenza virus prevalence metrics in combination with number of poultry farms per commodity type and relative biosecurity risks at two spatial scales: 3 km and county-level. Spillover risk varied across the annual cycle of waterfowl migration and some locations exhibited persistent risk throughout the year given higher poultry production. Validation using wild bird introduction events identified by phylogenetic analysis from 2022 to 2023 HPAI poultry outbreaks indicate strong model performance. The modular nature of our approach lends itself to building upon updated datasets under evolving conditions, testing hypothetical scenarios, or customizing results with proprietary data. This research demonstrates an adaptive approach for developing models to inform preparedness and response as novel outbreaks occur, viruses evolve, and additional data become available.

contiguous United States↗
USGS2022

Lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) otoliths indicate effects of climate and lake morphology on growth patterns in Arctic lakes

Climate change is occurring rapidly in the Arctic, and an improved understanding of the response of aquatic biota and ecosystems will be important for this data-limited region. Here, we applied biochronology techniques and mixed-effects modelling to assess relationships among growth increments found on lake trout ( Salvelinus namaycush ) otoliths ( N = 49) captured from 13 lakes on the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska, observed and modelled climate patterns, and individual-level fish and lake characteristics. We found that annual growth varied by year, fish growth slowed significantly as individuals aged, and females grew faster than males. Lake trout had higher growth in flow-through lakes relative to lakes that were perennially or seasonally connected. Annual growth was positively correlated with observed air temperature measurements from a local weather station for the period 1998–2014, but no clear warming trend was evident for this period. Modelled August air temperatures from 1978–2014 predicted lake trout annual growth (root mean squared error = 0.045 mm) and indicated increasing temperatures and annual lake trout growth over the period 1950–2014. This study demonstrated that biochronology techniques can reconstruct recent climate patterns and provide a better understanding of trends in Arctic lake ecosystems under a changing climate.

Alaska↗
USGS2020

Assessing the potential to mitigate climate-related expansion of largemouth bass populations using angler harvest

Climate-related changes in fish communities can present new challenges for fishery managers who must address declines in cool- and cold-water sportfish while dealing with increased abundance of warm-water sportfish. We used largemouth bass ( Micropterus salmoides ) in Wisconsin lakes as model populations to determine whether angler harvest provides a realistic method for reducing abundance of a popular warm-water sportfish that has become more prevalent and has prompted management concerns around the globe. Model results indicate largemouth bass will be resilient to increased fishing mortality. Furthermore, high rates of voluntary catch-and-release occurring in most largemouth bass fisheries likely preclude fishing mortality rates required to reduce bass abundance at meaningful levels (≥25% reductions). Increasing fishing mortality in these scenarios may require more “stimulus” than merely providing anglers with greater harvest opportunities via less stringent harvest regulations. Angler harvest could result in populations dominated by small fish, a scenario that may be undesirable to anglers, but could provide ecological benefits in certain situations.

Wisconain↗
USGS2009

Climate and hydrological changes in the northeastern United States: recent trends and implications for forested and aquatic ecosystems

We review twentieth century and projected twenty-first century changes in climatic and hydrologic conditions in the northeastern United States and the implications of these changes for forest ecosystems. Climate warming and increases in precipitation and associated changes in snow and hydrologic regimes have been observed over the last century, with the most pronounced changes occurring since 1970. Trends in specific climatic and hydrologic variables differ in their responses spatially (e.g., coastal vs. inland) and temporally (e.g., spring vs. summer). Trends can differ depending on the period of record analyzed, hinting at the role of decadal-scale climatic variation that is superimposed over the longer-term trend. Model predictions indicate that continued increases in temperature and precipitation across the northeastern United States can be expected over the next century. Ongoing increases in growing season length (earlier spring and later autumn) will most likely increase evapotranspiration and frequency of drought. In turn, an increase in the frequency of drought will likely increase the risk of fire and negatively impact forest productivity, maple syrup production, and the intensity of autumn foliage coloration. Climate and hydrologic changes could have profound effects on forest structure, composition, and ecological functioning in response to the changes discussed here and as described in related articles in this issue of the Journal.

Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, ↗