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USGS2019

A novel method to characterise levels of pharmaceutical pollution in large scale aquatic monitoring campaigns

Much of the current understanding of pharmaceutical pollution in the aquatic environment is based on research conducted in Europe, North America and other select high-income nations. One reason for this geographic disparity of data globally is the high cost and analytical intensity of the research, limiting accessibility to necessary equipment. To reduce the impact of such disparities, we present a novel method to support large-scale monitoring campaigns of pharmaceuticals at different geographical scales. The approach employs the use of a miniaturised sampling and shipping approach with a high throughput and fully validated direct-injection High-Performance Liquid Chromatography-Tandem Mass Spectrometry method for the quantification of 61 active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) and their metabolites in tap, surface, wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) influent and WWTP effluent water collected globally. A 7-day simulated shipping and sample stability assessment was undertaken demonstrating no significant degradation over the 1–3 days which is typical for global express shipping. Linearity (r 2 ) was consistently ≥0.93 (median = 0.99 ± 0.02), relative standard deviation of intra- and inter-day repeatability and precision was <20% for 75% and 68% of the determinations made at three concentrations, respectively, and recovery from Liquid Chromatography Mass Spectrometry grade water, tap water, surface water and WWTP effluent were within an acceptable range of 60–130% for 87%, 76%, 77% and 63% of determination made at three concentrations respectively. Limits of detection and quantification were determined in all validated matrices and were consistently in the ng/L level needed for environmentally relevant API research. Independent validation of method results was obtained via an interlaboratory comparison of three surface-water samples and one WWTP effluent sample collected in North Liberty, Iowa (USA). Samples used for the interlaboratory validation were analysed at the University of York Centre of Excellence in Mass Spectrometry (York, UK) and the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Quality Laboratory in Denver (Colorado, USA). These results document the robustness of using this method on a global scale. Such application of this method would essentially eliminate the interlaboratory analytical variability typical of such large-scale datasets where multiple methods were used.

Applied Sciences↗

USGS2022

Understanding the impacts of surface-groundwater conditions on stream fishes under altered baseflow conditions

Persistence of aquatic fauna depends on the conditions and connectivity of surface water and groundwater. In light of altered baseflows and both current and future predicted increases in stream temperatures, it is important to assess current thermal conditions, examine thermal responses of aquatic fauna, and evaluate water-management practices. Our study objectives were to determine (1) how changes in baseflow levels in the Kiamichi River influence hyporheic exchange, which correspondingly influences temperature at the reach scale; (2) temperature tolerances of stream fishes as a means for predicting how habitat complexity influences stream-fish populations; and (3) assess how dam releases influence the downstream temperature and dissolved oxygen regime during the low-flow period. We quantified hyporheic exchange at four reaches and, as expected, found higher groundwater exchange via transient storage occurred at the upstream sites. The net groundwater flux estimation was negative for the majority of reaches indicating that surface water is lost to groundwater during summer (i.e., losing), baseflow conditions. We determined critical thermal maximum (CTMax) for 17 stream fishes and thermal tolerances ranged 32-38°C. We determined the average thermal tolerance for two habitat fish guilds to calculate changes in thermal stress due to hypothetical reservoir release scenarios. We developed a process-based Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program model to predict downstream temperature conditions over 74-km of river in response to reservoir releases that corresponded to discharges of 0.00 (control), 0.34, 0.59, 0.76, 1.13, and 1.50 m3/s. Based on the dissolved oxygen conditions observed in 2015 and 2017 and biological oxygen demand sampling results, reservoir releases did not directly reduce dissolved oxygen concentrations in the Kiamichi River (though dissolved oxygen concentrations are limited to current water-release strategies by the managing agency). We simulated three scenarios using three water-release temperatures: 27.64°C, 26.00°C and 24.07°C that corresponded to average reservoir temperatures at gate locations on the dam. We compared the predicted temperature time series with CTMax of two fish-habitat guilds to quantify the cumulative time when stream fishes experienced severe thermal stress downstream from Sardis Reservoir. According to our simulations, reservoir releases would be capable of regulating downstream water temperature during the summer baseflow period. The 0.00 m3/s scenario resulted in 130 h of thermal stress for benthic fishes, and 73 h for mid-column fishes. As expected, thermal relief increased with increasing release magnitude and decreasing release water temperature. The 0.34 m3/s release scenario reduced thermal stress (range is simulations from the top and bottom gate) by 11-18% for mid-column fishes and 8-12% for benthic fishes with an effective distance (where the cumulative time above CTMax was reduced by half) of 1-2 km for both guilds. The 0.59 m3/s release scenario reduced thermal stress by 18-25% for mid-column fishes and 12-20% for benthic fishes with effective distances of 4-8 km and 2-7 km, respectively. Three releases representing pre-dam flow magnitudes (0.76, 1.13 and 1.50 m3/s released from top gate) reduced thermal stress up to 46% for mid-column fishes and 41% for benthic fishes with an effective distance of 13-16 km, respectively. Lastly, we quantified temperature-induced stress via whole-body cortisol concentration of six stream fishes in response to prolonged thermal exposure at two temperatures (27°C and 32°C). We found no difference in cortisol levels between temperatures for any of the six species, indicating acclimation to elevated temperatures during the test period. However, Highland Stoneroller Campostoma spadiceum expressed cortisol concentrations greater than typical basal levels at both temperatures, suggesting stress from factors other than temperature (i.e., captivity). Our results suggest different reservoir-release options could improve downstream thermal-fish habitat during the summer baseflow period.

Cooperator Science Series↗

USGS2012

A brief history and summary of the effects of river engineering and dams on the Mississippi River system and delta

The U.S. Geological Survey Forecast Mekong project is providing technical assistance and information to aid management decisions and build science capacity of institutions in the Mekong River Basin. A component of this effort is to produce a synthesis of the effects of dams and other engineering structures on large-river hydrology, sediment transport, geomorphology, ecology, water quality, and deltaic systems. The Mississippi River Basin (MRB) of the United States was used as the backdrop and context for this synthesis because it is a continental scale river system with a total annual water discharge proportional to the Mekong River, has been highly engineered over the past two centuries, and the effects of engineering have been widely studied and documented by scientists and engineers. The MRB is controlled and regulated by dams and river-engineering structures. These modifications have resulted in multiple benefits including navigation, flood control, hydropower, bank stabilization, and recreation. Dams and other river-engineering structures in the MRB have afforded the United States substantial socioeconomic benefits; however, these benefits also have transformed the hydrologic, sediment transport, geomorphic, water-quality, and ecologic characteristics of the river and its delta. Large dams on the middle Missouri River have substantially reduced the magnitude of peak floods, increased base discharges, and reduced the overall variability of intraannual discharges. The extensive system of levees and wing dikes throughout the MRB, although providing protection from intermediate magnitude floods, have reduced overall channel capacity and increased flood stage by up to 4 meters for higher magnitude floods. Prior to major river engineering, the estimated average annual sediment yield of the Mississippi River Basin was approximately 400 million metric tons. The construction of large main-channel reservoirs on the Missouri and Arkansas Rivers, sedimentation in dike fields, and protection of channel banks by revetments throughout the basin, have reduced the overall sediment yield of the MRB by more than 60 percent. The primary alterations to channel morphology by dams and other engineering projects have been (1) channel simplification and reduced dynamism; (2) lowering of channel-bed elevation; and (3) disconnection of the river channel from the flood plain, except during extreme flood events. Freshwater discharge from the Mississippi River and its associated sediment and nutrient loads strongly influence the physical and biological components in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Ninety percent of the nitrogen load reaching the Gulf of Mexico is from nonpoint sources with about 60 percent coming from fertilizer and mineralized soil nitrogen. Much of the phosphorus is from animal manure from pasture and rangelands followed by fertilizer applied to corn and soybeans. Increased nutrient enrichment in the northern Gulf of Mexico has resulted in the degradation of water quality as more phytoplankton grow, which increases turbidity and depletes oxygen in the lower depths creating what is known as the "dead zone." In 2002, the dead zone was 22,000 square kilometers (km2), an area similar to the size of the State of Massachusetts. Changes in the flow regime from engineered structures have had direct and indirect effects on the fish communities. The navigation pools in the upper Mississippi River have aged, and these overwintering habitats, which were created when the pools filled, have declined as sedimentation reduces water depth. Reproduction of paddlefish may have been adversely affected by dams, which impede access to suitable spawning habitats. Fishes that inhabit swift-current habitats in the unimpounded lower Mississippi River have not declined as much as in the upper Mississippi River. The decline of the pallid sturgeon may be attributable to channelization of the Missouri River above St. Louis, Missouri. The Missouri River supports a rich fish community and remains relatively intact. Nevertheless, the widespread and long history of human intervention in river discharge has contributed to the declines of about 25 percent of the species. The Mississippi River Delta Plain is built from six delta complexes composed of a massive area of coastal wetlands that support the largest commercial fishery in the conterminous United States. Since the early 20th century, approximately 4,900 km2 of coastal lands have been lost in Louisiana. One of the primary mechanisms of wetland loss on the Plaquemines-Balize complex is believed to be the disconnection of the river distributary network from the delta plain by the massive system of levees on the delta top, which prevent overbank flooding and replenishment of the delta top by sediment and nutrient deliveries. Efforts by Federal and State agencies to conserve and restore the Mississippi River Delta Plain began over three decades ago and have accelerated over the past decade. Regardless of these efforts, however, land losses are expected to continue because the reduced upstream sediment supplies are not sufficient to keep up with the projected depositional space being created by the combined forces of delta plain subsidence and global sea-level rise.

Alabama;Alberta;Arkansas;Colorado;Georgia;Illinois↗

USGS2019

Holocene thermokarst lake dynamics in northern Interior Alaska: The interplay of climate, fire, and subsurface hydrology

The current state of permafrost in Alaska and meaningful expectations for its future evolution are informed by long-term perspectives of previous permafrost degradation. Thermokarst processes in permafrost landscapes often lead to widespread lake formation and the spatial and temporal evolution of thermokarst lake landscapes reflects the combined effects of climate, ground conditions, vegetation, and fire. This study provides detailed analyses of thermokarst lake sediments of Holocene age from the southern loess uplands of the Yukon Flats; including bathymetry and sediment core analyses across a water depth transect. The sediment core results, dated by radiocarbon and 210Pb, indicate the onset of finely laminated lacustrine sedimentation between ~10,000 and 9,000 cal yr BP following basin development through inferred thermokarst processes. Thermokarst expansion to modern shoreline configurations continued until ~5000 cal yr BP, which may have been influenced by increased fire. Between ~5000 and 2000 cal yr BP, the preservation of fine laminations at intermediate and deep-water depths indicate higher lake levels than present. At that time, the lake likely overflowed into an over-deepened gully system that is no longer occupied by perennial streams. By ~2000 cal yr BP, massive sedimentation at intermediate water depths indicates that lake levels lowered, which is interpreted to reflect a response to drier conditions based on correspondence with Yukon Flats regional fire and local paleoclimate reconstructions. Consideration of additional contributing mechanisms include the possible influence of catastrophic lake drainages on downgradient base flow levels that may have enhanced subsurface water loss, although this mechanism is untested. The overall consistency between the millennial lake level trends documented here with regional paleoclimate trends indicates that after lakes formed, their size and depth has likely been affected directly by North Pacific atmospheric circulation changes and indirectly through evolution of permafrost, ground ice and sub-surface hydrology. As the first detailed study of Holocene thermokarst basin expansion, stabilization and subsequent climate-driven lake level variations in a loess upland, results provide a framework for future investigations of paleoclimatic signals from similar lake systems that characterize large regions of Alaska and Siberia.

Alaska↗

USGS2007

Yellowstone grizzly bear investigations: Annual report of the Interagency Grizzly Bear Study Team, 2006

The contents of this Annual Report summarize results of monitoring and research from the 2006 field season. The report also contains a summary of nuisance grizzly bear ( Ursus arctos horribilis ) management actions. The Interagency Grizzly Bear Study Team (IGBST) continues to work on issues associated with counts of unduplicated females with cubs-of- the-year (COY). These counts are used to establish a minimum population size, which is then used to establish mortality thresholds for the Recovery Plan (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service [USFWS] 1993). After considerable delays due to programming issues, a computer program that defines the rule set used by Knight et al. (1995) to differentiate unique family groups was development and tested in 2005 and 2006. Simulations using observations of collared females with COY were randomly sampled to generate datasets of observations of random females with COY. These datasets were then run though the simulations program to test the accuracy of the rules. Data are currently being summarized. This project has been completed and a manuscript was submitted to the Journal of Wildlife Management. The grizzly bear recovery plan (USFWS 1993) established human-caused mortality quotas. We used the latest information on reproduction and survival to estimate population trajectory in the same simulation model originally used by Harris (1984). A Wildlife Monographs was published in 2006. Additionally, the study team, in cooperation with several quantitative experts, reassessed how population size is indexed and how sustainable mortality rates are established. A draft report was presented to the Yellowstone Ecosystem Subcommittee in spring 2005. It was published as part of the USFWS Delisting Rule (Federal Register Vol. 70, No. 221, Nov. 17, 2005, 69853–69884) and subjected to public comment. This workshop document can be found at http://www.fws.gov/mountain-prairie/species/mammals/grizzly/yellowstone.htm. During the summer of 2006, a second workshop was held to address public comment and professional peer review. The result of this workshop was a supplement to the 2005 workshop document. This supplement can be found at http://www.fws.gov/mountain-prairie/species/mammals/grizzly/yellowstone.htm under the link Revised Methods to Estimate Population Size and Sustainable Mortality Limits. Results of those estimates are provided in Appendix A. Our project addressing the potential application of stable isotopes and trace elements to quantify consumption rates of whitebark pine ( Pinus albicaulis ) and cutthroat trout ( Oncorhynchus clarki ) by grizzly bears was completed. Our manuscript on consumption rates of whitebark pine was published in the Canadian Journal of Zoology 81:763-770. Results of the mercury studies were also published in the Canadian Journal of Zoology 82:493–501. Copies can be found on the IGBST website http://www.nrmsc.usgs.gov/research/igbst-home.htm. Based upon this work, we submitted a proposal to analyze all historic tissue samples from grizzly bears in the ecosystem. That proposal was funded and samples have been sent to a lab for isotopic analysis. We hope to have those results in early 2008. Results of DNA hair snaring work conducted on Yellowstone Lake were submitted and published in the Journal Ursus (Haroldson et al. 2005). Results of this study conducted from 1997–2000 showed a decline in fish use by grizzly bears when compared to earlier work conducted by Reinhart (1990) in 1985–1987. As a consequence, the IGBST submitted a proposal to the National Park Service and received 3 years funding to repeat that work. This project began in 2007. There are 2 graduate students and several field technicians working on the program. We completed the final field season in Grand Teton National Park evaluating habitat use both temporally and spatially between grizzly and black bears ( Ursus americanus ). We continue to use GPS technology that incorporates a spread spectrum communication system. Spread spectrum allows for transfer of stored GPS locations from the collar to a remote receiving station. Results of the 2006 field season are reported here. We plan to complete the final report in late 2007. We continued to monitor the health of whitebark pine in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) in cooperation with the Greater Yellowstone Whitebark Pine Monitoring Working Group. A summary of the 2006 monitoring is also presented (Appendix B). The IGBST uses counts of winter-killed ungulates to index spring carcass abundance for grizzly bears. Likewise, we use wier counts and stream surveys to index cutthroat trout abundance. We ask Dr. Steve Cherry, Department of Mathematical Sciences, Montana State University-Bozeman, to review the protocols and make recommendations for improving them. That review and recommendations are presented in Appendix C. Finally, the state of Wyoming, following recommendations from the Yellowstone Ecosystem Subcommittee and the IGBST, launched the Bear Wise Community Effort. The focus is to minimize human/bear conflicts, minimize human-caused bear mortalities associated with conflicts, and safeguard the human community. Results of these efforts are detailed in Appendix D. The annual reports of the IGBST summarize annual data collection. Because additional information can be obtained after publication, data summaries are subject to change. For that reason, data analyses and summaries presented in this report supersede all previously published data. The study area and sampling techniques are reported by Blanchard (1985), Mattson et al. (1991 a), and Haroldson et al. (1998).

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗

USGS2003

Escherichia coli at Ohio bathing beaches—Distribution, sources, wastewater indicators, and predictive modeling

Results of studies during the recreational seasons of 2000 and 2001 strengthen the science that supports monitoring of our Nation's beaches. Water and sediment samples were collected and analyzed for concentrations of Escherichia coli ( E. coli ). Ancillary water-quality and environmental data were collected or compiled to determine their relation to E. coli concentrations. Data were collected at three Lake Erie urban beaches (Edgewater, Villa Angela, and Huntington), two Lake Erie beaches in a less populated area (Mentor Headlands and Fairport Harbor), and one inland-lake beach (Mosquito Lake). The distribution of E. coli in water and sediments within the bathing area, outside the bathing area, and near the swash zone was investigated at the three Lake Erie urban beaches and at Mosquito Lake. (The swash zone is the zone that is alternately covered and exposed by waves.) Lake-bottom sediments from outside the bathing area were not significant deposition areas for E. coli . In contrast, interstitial water and subsurface sediments from near the swash zone were enriched with E. coli . For example, E. coli concentrations were as high as 100,000 colonies per 100 milliliters in some interstitial waters. Although there are no standards for E. coli in swash-zone materials, the high concentrations found at some locations warrant concern for public health. Studies were done at Mosquito Lake to identify sources of fecal contamination to the lake and bathing beach. Escherichia coli concentrations decreased with distance from a suspected source of fecal contamination that is north of the beach but increased at the bathing beach. This evidence indicated that elevated E. coli concentrations at the bathing beach are of local origin rather than from transport of bacteria from sites to the north. Samples collected from the three Lake Erie urban beaches and Mosquito Lake were analyzed to determine whether wastewater indicators could be used as surrogates for E. coli at bathing beaches. None of the concentrations of wastewater indicators of fecal contamination, including 3b-coprostanol and cholesterol, were significantly correlated (a=0.05) to concentrations of E. coli . Concentrations of the two compounds that were significantly correlated to E. coli were components of coal tar and asphalt, which are not necessarily indicative of fecal contamination. Data were collected to build on an earlier 1997 study to develop and test multiple-linear-regression models to predict E. coli concentrations using water-quality and environmental variables as explanatory variables. The probability of exceeding the single-sample bathing-water standard for E. coli (235 colonies per 100 milliliters) was used as the model output variable. Threshold probabilities for each model were established. Computed probabilities that are less than a threshold probability indicate that bacterial water quality is most likely acceptable. Computed probabilities equal to or above the threshold probability indicate that the water quality is most likely not acceptable and that a water-quality advisory may be needed. Models were developed at each beach, whenever possible, using combinations of 1997, 2000, and (or) 2001 data. The models developed and tested in this study were shown to be beach specific; that is, different explanatory variables were used to predict the probability of exceeding the standard at each beach. At Mentor Headlands and Fairport Harbor, models were not developed because water quality was generally good. At the three Lake Erie urban beaches, models were developed with variable lists that included the number of birds on the beach at the time of sampling, lake-current direction, wave height, turbidity, streamflow of a nearby river, and rainfall. The models for Huntington explained a larger percentage of the variability in E. coli concentrations than the models for Edgewater and Villa Angela. At Mosquito Lake, a model based on 2000 and 2001 data contained the explanatory variables rainfall, number of dry days preceding a rainfall, date, wind direction, wind speed, and turbidity. Additional research could include testing the threshold probabilities assigned for these models in subsequent years and comparing the models’ ability to predict recreational water quality to results from the current method—using antecedent E. coli concentrations. Each year the model is tested, new data can be added and model variables can be recalculated to determine whether the predictive ability improves with additional data.

Ohio↗

USGS2019

Flood-inundation maps for Lake Champlain in Vermont and New York

In 2016, digital flood-inundation maps along the shoreline of Lake Champlain in Addison, Chittenden, Franklin, and Grand Isle Counties in Vermont and northern Clinton County in New York were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the International Joint Commission (IJC). This report discusses the creation of updated static digital flood-inundation mapping, in 2018, to include the entire shoreline of Lake Champlain in the United States. The flood-inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science website at http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/ , depict estimates of the areal extent of flooding corresponding to selected water-surface elevations (stages) at the USGS lake gages on Lake Champlain. As a result of the record setting floods of May 2011 in Lake Champlain and the Richelieu River, the U.S. and Canadian governments requested that the IJC issue a reference for a study to identify how flood forecasting, preparedness, and mitigation could be improved in the Lake Champlain–Richelieu River Basin. The IJC submitted the Lake Champlain–Richelieu River Plan of Study to the governments of Canada and the United States in 2013. The flood-inundation maps in this study are one aspect of the task work outlined in the IJC 2013 Plan of Study. Wind and seiche effects (standing oscillating wave with a long wavelength) that can influence flooding along the Lake Champlain shoreline were not represented. The flood-inundation maps reflect 11 stages for Lake Champlain that are static for the entire area of the lake. Near-real-time stages at the USGS gages on Lake Champlain may be obtained from the USGS National Water Information System website at http://waterdata.usgs.gov/ ( https://doi.org/10.5066/F7P55KJN ) or from the National Weather Service Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ . Updated static flood-inundation boundary extents were created for Lake Champlain in Franklin, Chittenden, Addison, Rutland, and Grand Isle Counties in Vermont and Clinton, Essex, and Washington Counties in New York by using recently acquired (2009, 2012, 2014, and 2015) light detection and ranging (lidar) data. The corresponding flood-inundation maps may be referenced to any of the four active USGS lake gages on Lake Champlain. Of these four active lake gages, USGS lake gage 04295000, Richelieu River (Lake Champlain) at Rouses Point, N.Y.; USGS lake gage 04294500, Lake Champlain at Burlington, Vt.; USGS lake gage 04279085 Lake Champlain north of Whitehall, N.Y.; and USGS lake gage 04294413, Lake Champlain at Port Henry, N.Y., only the Richelieu River (Lake Champlain) at Rouses Point, N.Y., gage also serves as a National Weather Service prediction location. Lake Champlain static flood-inundation map boundary extents corresponding to the May 2011 peak flood stage (103.20 feet [ft], National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929 [NGVD 29], as recorded at the USGS Rouses Point lake gage, were compared to the flood-inundation area extents determined from satellite imagery for the May 2011 flood (which incorporated documented high-water marks from the flood of May 2011) and were found to be in good agreement. The May 2011 flood is the highest recorded lake water level (stage) at the Rouses Point, N.Y., and Burlington, Vt., lake gages. Flood stages greater than 101.5 ft (NGVD 29) exceed the “major flood stage” as defined by the National Weather Service for USGS lake gage 04295000. Updated digital elevation models (DEMs) were created from the recent lidar data for Lake Champlain in Vermont and New York. These DEMs were used in determining the flood-inundation boundary and associated depth grids for 11 flood stages at 0.5-ft or 1-ft intervals from 100.0 to 106.0 ft (NGVD 29) as referenced to the USGS lake gages. In addition, the May 2011 flood-inundation area for elevation 103.20 ft (NGVD 29) (102.77 ft, North American Vertical Datum of 1988) was determined from these updated DEMs. The availability of these maps, along with online information regarding current stages at the USGS lake gages and forecasted high-flow stages from the National Weather Service at USGS lake gage 04295000, Richelieu River (Lake Champlain) at Rouses Point, N.Y., will provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities such as evacuations and road closures, as well as for post-flood recovery efforts.

New York, Vermont↗

USGS2023

Vulnerability to climate change of managed stocks in the California Current large marine ecosystem

Introduction: Understanding how abundance, productivity and distribution of individual species may respond to climate change is a critical first step towards anticipating alterations in marine ecosystem structure and function, as well as developing strategies to adapt to the full range of potential changes. Methods: This study applies the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) Fisheries Climate Vulnerability Assessment method to 64 federally-managed species in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem to assess their vulnerability to climate change, where vulnerability is a function of a species’ exposure to environmental change and its biological sensitivity to a set of environmental conditions, which includes components of its resiliency and adaptive capacity to respond to these new conditions. Results: Overall, two-thirds of the species were judged to have Moderate or greater vulnerability to climate change, and only one species was anticipated to have a positive response. Species classified as Highly or Very Highly vulnerable share one or more characteristics including: 1) having complex life histories that utilize a wide range of freshwater and marine habitats; 2) having habitat specialization, particularly for areas that are likely to experience increased hypoxia; 3) having long lifespans and low population growth rates; and/or 4) being of high commercial value combined with impacts from non-climate stressors such as anthropogenic habitat degradation. Species with Low or Moderate vulnerability are either habitat generalists, occupy deep-water habitats or are highly mobile and likely to shift their ranges. Discussion: As climate-related changes intensify, this work provides key information for both scientists and managers as they address the long-term sustainability of fisheries in the region. This information can inform near-term advice for prioritizing species-level data collection and research on climate impacts, help managers to determine when and where a precautionary approach might be warranted, in harvest or other management decisions, and help identify habitats or life history stages that might be especially effective to protect or restore.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2017

Younger-Dryas cooling and sea-ice feedbacks were prominent features of the Pleistocene-Holocene transition in Arctic Alaska

Declining sea-ice extent is currently amplifying climate warming in the Arctic. Instrumental records at high latitudes are too short-term to provide sufficient historical context for these trends, so paleoclimate archives are needed to better understand the functioning of the sea ice-albedo feedback. Here we use the oxygen isotope values of wood cellulose in living and sub-fossil willow shrubs (δ 18 O wc ) ( Salix spp.) that have been radiocarbon-dated ( 14 C) to produce a multi-millennial record of climatic change on Alaska's North Slope during the Pleistocene-Holocene transition (13,500–7500 calibrated 14 C years before present; 13.5–7.5 ka). We first analyzed the spatial and temporal patterns of δ 18 O wc in living willows growing at upland sites and found that over the last 30 years δ 18 O wc values in individual growth rings correlate with local summer temperature and inter-annual variations in summer sea-ice extent. Deglacial δ 18 O wc values from 145 samples of subfossil willows clearly record the Allerød warm period (∼13.2 ka), the Younger Dryas cold period (12.9–11.7 ka), and the Holocene Thermal Maximum (11.7–9.0 ka). The magnitudes of isotopic changes over these rapid climate oscillations were ∼4.5‰, which is about 60% of the differences in δ 18 O wc between those willows growing during the last glacial period and today. Modeling of isotope-precipitation relationships based on Rayleigh distillation processes suggests that during the Younger Dryas these large shifts in δ 18 O wc values were caused by interactions between local temperature and changes in evaporative moisture sources, the latter controlled by seaice extent in the Arctic Ocean and Bering Sea. Based on these results and on the effects that sea-ice have on climate today, we infer that ocean-derived feedbacks amplified temperature changes and enhanced precipitation in coastal regions of Arctic Alaska during warm times in the past. Today, isotope values in willows on the North Slope of Alaska are similar to those growing during the warmest times of the Pleistocene-Holocene transition, which were times of widespread permafrost thaw and striking ecological changes.

Alaska↗

USGS2019

Review of and recommendations for monitoring contaminants and their effects in the San Francisco Bay−Delta

Legacy and current-use contaminants enter into and accumulate throughout the San Francisco Bay−Delta (Bay−Delta), and are present at concentrations with known effects on species important to this diverse watershed. There remains major uncertainty and a lack of focused research able to address and provide understanding of effects across multiple biological scales, despite previous and ongoing emphasis on the need for it. These needs are challenging specifically because of the established regulatory programs that often monitor on a chemical- by-chemical basis, or in which decisions are grounded in lethality-based endpoints. To best address issues of contaminants in the Bay−Delta, monitoring efforts should consider effects of environmentally relevant mixtures and sub- lethal impacts that can affect ecosystem health. These efforts need to consider the complex environment in the Bay−Delta including variable abiotic (e.g., temperature, salinity) and biotic (e.g., pathogens) factors. This calls for controlled and focused research, and the development of a multi-disciplinary contaminant monitoring and assessment program that provides information across biological scales. Information gained in this manner will contribute toward evaluating parameters that could alleviate ecologically detrimental outcomes. This review is a result of a Special Symposium convened at the University of California−Davis (UCD) on January 31, 2017 to address critical information needed on how contaminants affect the Bay−Delta. The UCD Symposium focused on new tools and approaches for assessing multiple stressor effects to freshwater and estuarine systems. Our approach is similar to the recently proposed framework laid out by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) that uses weight of evidence to scale toxicological responses to chemical contaminants in a laboratory, and to guide the conservation of priority species and habitats. As such, we also aimed to recommend multiple endpoints that could be used to promote a multi-disciplinary understanding of contaminant risks in Bay−Delta while supporting management needs.

California↗

USGS2025

Analysis of trends in terrestrial vegetation at Mediterranean Coast Network Parks: Channel Islands National Park

The five islands comprising Channel Islands National Park (CHIS) experience natural gradients in temperature and moisture driven by ocean currents. Additionally, the islands were used as ranchlands and military land before becoming a national park, resulting in widespread erosion and vegetation change. As a result, CHIS spans gradients in climate as well as ranching duration and time since animal removal. Vegetation monitoring was initiated in 1984 on three islands (Anacapa, Santa Barbara, San Miguel), in 1990 on Santa Rosa Island, and in 1998 on Santa Cruz Island, with the goal of documenting the long-term response of island vegetation to ranch animal removal and climate fluctuations. Since that time, monitoring has documented the range of natural fluctuation in island environments over decades and provided insights into vegetation change in ecosystems unencumbered by ongoing development. Long-term vegetation monitoring at CHIS is therefore a rare example of an ecosystem experiment that demonstrates the results of management actions and serves as a baseline for land managers and scientists worldwide. Terrestrial vegetation data collected between 1984 and 2018 were modeled to estimate trends over time and to characterize relationships with covariates related to site characteristics, nonnative mammal removal programs, and water balance metrics. Data were analyzed for trends in vegetation cover, woody plant density, and plant community diversity grouped by life form and nativity across all islands and within individual islands, as well as for several individual species that dominate plant communities or present challenges to native plant recovery. In all, a total of 162 trend and covariate models were tested in this study, the details of which are provided in this report. Briefly, results reflect a decline in nonnative annual disturbance-thriving species with the reduction in animal grazing and trampling. Increasing trends were observed in native shrub density and native shrub recruitment density, as well as native shrub cover across all islands averaged together and on Santa Cruz Island. However, opposite trends were seen on the smaller islands of Santa Barbara and Anacapa, where increasing seabird activity may be damaging vegetation. Further results indicate the importance of soil moisture, relative humidity, fog, precipitation, site exposure, and solar radiation for vegetation patterns and trends. In many instances, there are apparent interacting effects of environmental variables with trends related to nonnative mammal removal and site location. Vegetation patterns in space and time emerge in the dataset as nuanced responses to interacting drivers.

Calfornia↗

USGS2012

Assessing the potential hydrological impact of the Gibe III Dam on Lake Turkana water level using multi-source satellite data

Lake Turkana, the largest desert lake in the world, is fed by ungauged or poorly gauged river systems. To meet the demand of electricity in the East African region, Ethiopia is currently building the Gibe III hydroelectric dam on the Omo River, which supplies more than 80% of the inflows to Lake Turkana. On completion, the Gibe III dam will be the tallest dam in Africa with a height of 241 m. However, the nature of interactions and potential impacts of regulated inflows to Lake Turkana are not well understood due to its remote location and unavailability of reliable in-situ datasets. In this study, we used 12 years (1998–2009) of existing multi-source satellite and model-assimilated global weather data. We use calibrated multi-source satellite data-driven water balance model for Lake Turkana that takes into account model routed runoff, lake/reservoir evapotranspiration, direct rain on lakes/reservoirs and releases from the dam to compute lake water levels. The model evaluates the impact of Gibe III dam using three different approaches such as (a historical approach, a knowledge-based approach, and a nonparametric bootstrap resampling approach) to generate rainfall-runoff scenarios. All the approaches provided comparable and consistent results. Model results indicated that the hydrological impact of the dam on Lake Turkana would vary with the magnitude and distribution of rainfall post-dam commencement. On average, the reservoir would take up to 8–10 months, after commencement, to reach a minimum operation level of 201 m depth of water. During the dam filling period, the lake level would drop up to 2 m (95% confidence) compared to the lake level modelled without the dam. The lake level variability caused by regulated inflows after the dam commissioning were found to be within the natural variability of the lake of 4.8 m. Moreover, modelling results indicated that the hydrological impact of the Gibe III dam would depend on the initial lake level at the time of dam commencement. Areas along the Lake Turkana shoreline that are vulnerable to fluctuations in lake levels were also identified. This study demonstrates the effectiveness of using existing multi-source satellite data in a basic modeling framework to assess the potential hydrological impact of an upstream dam on a terminal downstream lake. The results obtained from this study could also be used to evaluate alternate dam-filling scenarios and assess the potential impact of the dam on Lake Turkana under different operational strategies.

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions↗

USGS2014

Restoration of Rio Grande cutthroat trout Oncorhynchus clarkii virginalis to the Mescalero Apache Reservation

Rio Grande Cutthroat trout Oncorhynchus clarkii virginalis (RGCT) represents the most southern subspecies of cutthroat trout, endemic to Rio Grande, Canadian, and Pecos basins of New Mexico and southern Colorado. The subspecies currently occupies less than 12% of its historic range. The Mescalero Apache Tribe has partnered with U.S. Geological Survey-New Mexico Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, New Mexico State University, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and New Mexico Department of Game and Fish to meet mutually shared goals of restoring and maintaining a Pecos strain of RGCT to Tribal lands. The goal of this project was to assess the suitability of the Rio Ruidoso within the Mescalero Apache Reservation to support a self-sustaining RGCT population by conducting a systematic and comprehensive survey. We conducted three surveys (fall 2010, spring 2011 and 2012) to characterize water quality, macroinvertebrate assemblages, fish communities, and physical habitat (stream size, channel gradient, channel substrate, habitat complexity, riparian vegetation cover and structure, migration barriers to movement). Seven-100 m reaches throughout three major tributaries of the Rio Ruidoso within the Tribal lands were sampled during baseflow conditions October 2010, May 2011, and June 2012. Despite the onset of severe drought in 2011, water quality, physical habitat, and fish populations revealed that the Rio Ruidoso and its three tributaries would most likely support a self-sustaining RGCT population. Pools were abundant (mean, 8.9 pools/100 m), instream woody debris was present (range, 3.8-45.6 pieces/100 m), and instream dataloggers revealed daily maximum stream temperatures rarely exceeded criteria established in New Mexico for coldwater fishes, however, presence of frazil and anchor ice may limit fish distribution in the winter. Aquatic macroinvertebrate samples revealed a community of benthic invertebrates reflective of high quality cool to cold water. Overall densities of brown trout, rainbow trout and brook trout were high (overall mean, 0.23 fish/m2) and in relatively good condition (range of mean relative weight, 84-117). Should the Mescalero Apache Tribe decide to introduce RGCT, prior to chemical treatment, a barrier placed below the confluence of Middle and South forks of the Rio Ruidoso would create approximately 12 km of perennial flow and help protect against invasion of non-native fishes. The North Fork of the Rio Ruidoso is not a good candidate for reintroduction because of easy access by the public to reintroduce non-native fishes into the watershed. Lastly, an annual, long-term monitoring program of RGCT would help document that there was no subsequent incursion of non-native fishes.

Cooperator Science Series↗

USGS1997

The urban atmosphere as a non-point source for the transport of MTBE and other volatile organic compounds (VOCS) to shallow groundwater

Infiltration and dispersion (including molecular diffusion) can transport volatile organic compounds (VOCs) from urban air into shallow groundwater. The gasoline additive methyl- tert -butyl ether (MTBE) is of special interest because of its (1) current levels in some urban air, (2) strong partitioning from air into water, (3) resistance to degradation, (4) use as an octane-booster since the 1970s, (5) rapidly increasing use in the 1990s to reduce CO and O 3 in urban air, and (6) its frequent detection at low microgram per liter levels in shallow urban groundwater in Denver, New England, and elsewhere. Numerical simulations were conducted using a 1-D model domain set in medium sand (depth to water table = 5 m) to provide a test of whether MTBE and other atmospheric VOCs could move to shallow groundwater within the 10−15 y time frame over which MTBE has now been used in large amounts. Degradation and sorption were assumed negligible. In case 1 (no infiltration, steady atmospheric source), 10 y was not long enough to permit significant VOC movement by diffusion into shallow groundwater. Case 2 considered a steady atmospheric source plus 36 cm/y of net infiltration; groundwater at 2 m below the water table became nearly saturated with atmospheric levels of VOC within 5 y. Case 3 was similar to case 2, but considered the source to be seasonal, being “on” for only 5 of 12 months each year, as with the use of MTBE during the winter fuel-oxygenate season; groundwater at 2 m below the water table became equilibrated with 5 / 12 of the “source-on” concentration within 5 y. Cases 4 and 5 added an evapotranspiration (ET) loss of 36 cm/y, resulting in no net recharge. Case 4 took the ET from the surface, and case 5 took the ET from the capillary fringe at a depth of 3.5 m. Net VOC mass transfer to shallow groundwater after 5 y was less for both cases 4 and 5 than for case 3. However, it was significantly greater for cases 4 and 5 than for case 1, even though cases 1, 4, and 5 were all no-net recharge cases. The mechanism responsible for this effect was the dispersion acting on each downward infiltration event, and also on the ET-induced flow. The ability of MTBE to reach groundwater in cases 2−5 is taken as evidence of the potential importance of urban air as a non-point source for VOCs in shallow urban groundwater. Two subcases were run for both case 4 and case 5: subcase a (water and VOCs move with ET) and subcase b (water only moves with ET).

Environmental Science & Technology↗

USGS2024

Re-evaluating Marine Isotope Stage 5a paleo-sea-level trends from across the Florida Keys reef tract

Unraveling how Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL) fluctuated during past warm periods can improve our understanding of linkages between sea-level fluctuations, orbital forcing, and ice-sheet dynamics. Current estimates of GMSL for Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 5a and 5c — two warm intervals following the relatively well-documented MIS 5e — contain meters of uncertainty and fewer data due to several challenges. These challenges include concealment of datable in-situ coral facies by MIS 1 deposits and inaccessibility due to submergence by modern sea level. We present a comprehensive dataset based on U–Th dating and stratigraphic correlation of 23 cores totaling over 170 m of recovered coral-reef deposits across the tectonically stable Florida Keys Reef Tract (FKRT). Following detailed facies descriptions, 34 in-situ, minimally altered aragonitic coral samples (≤2.7% calcite) below the Holocene-Pleistocene boundary were targeted for U–Th geochronology. Fourteen closed-system coral U–Th ages from MIS 5a include the commonly used sea-level indicator Acropora palmata , but also the massive coral taxa Pseudodiploria strigosa, Siderastrea siderea, Orbicella spp., and Porites astreoides . Dating yielded ages in the range of 88–81 ka (average 2σ uncertainty of less than 200 years). These ages suggest MIS 5a reef initiation at ∼88 ka BP, a peak near 83 ka with minimum elevations between −6.0 ± 0.5 and −5.6 ± 0.5 m MSL (2σ uncertainty and subsidence-corrected), and reef termination and sea-level fall by ∼81 ka BP. Notably, the range of peak MIS 5a relative sea-level estimates of −6.5 to −5.1 m MSL are more than 2 m shallower (higher) than previous estimates of −11 to −9 m. Our higher resolution regional sea-level reconstruction across four subregions of the Florida Keys reef tract aligns with changes in July insolation at 65° N: a trend that most other records, such as deep-sea sediments, do not have the accuracy and precision to resolve. Three massive coral samples from MIS 5c, consisting of Pseudodiploria clivosa , and Orbicella spp., yielded ages in the range of 104 to 99 ka (average 2σ uncertainty less than 200 years); however, because only one sample met the closed-system criteria, our ability to estimate MIS 5c sea level is relatively limited. More empirical estimates of sea-level from the MIS 5a and MIS 5c intervals based on numerical dating of reliable local sea-level constraints are critical for GMSL calculations and relating changes in sea-level amplitude and timing to global ice volume modeling and glacio-isostatic effects, all of which can improve predictions of future sea-level changes in coastal regions.

Florida↗

USGS2019

Isotopic and petrologic investigation, and a thermomechanical model of genesis of large-volume rhyolites in arc environments: Karymshina Volcanic Complex, Kamchatka, Russia

The Kamchatka Peninsula of eastern Russia is currently one of the most volcanically active areas on Earth where a combination of >8 cm/yr subduction convergence rate and thick continental crust generates large silicic magma chambers, reflected by abundant large calderas and caldera complexes. This study examines the largest center of silicic 4-0.5 Ma Karymshina Volcanic Complex, which includes the 25 × 15 km Karymshina caldera, the largest in Kamchatka. A series of rhyolitic tuff eruptions at 4 Ma were followed by the main eruption at 1.78 Ma and produced an estimated 800 km 3 of rhyolitic ignimbrites followed by high-silica rhyolitic post-caldera extrusions. The postcaldera domes trace the 1.78 Ma right fracture and form a continuous compositional series with ignimbrites. We here present results of a geologic, petrologic, and isotopic study of the Karymshina eruptive complex, and present new Ar-Ar ages, and isotopic values of rocks for the oldest pre- 1.78 Ma caldera ignimbrites and intrusions, which include a diversity of compositions from basalts to rhyolites. Temporal trends in δ 18 O, 87 Sr/ 86 Sr, and 144 Nd/ 143 Nd indicate values comparable to neighboring volcanoes, increase in homogeneity, and temporal increase in mantle-derived Sr and Nd with increasing differentiation over the last 4 million years. Data are consistent with a batholithic scale magma chamber formed by primarily fractional crystallization of mantle derived composition and assimilation of Cretaceous and younger crust, driven by basaltic volcanism and mantle delaminations. All rocks have 35–45% quartz, plagioclase, biotite, and amphibole phenocrysts. Rhyolite-MELTS crystallization models favor shallow (2 kbar) differentiation conditions and varying quantities of assimilated amphibolite partial melt and hydrothermally-altered silicic rock. Thermomechanical modeling with a typical 0.001 km 3 /yr eruption rate of hydrous basalt into a 38 km Kamchatkan arc crust produces two magma bodies, one near the Moho and the other engulfing the entire section of upper crust. Rising basalts are trapped in the lower portion of an upper crustal magma body, which exists in a partially molten to solid state. Differentiation products of basalt periodically mix with the resident magma diluting its crustal isotopic signatures. At the end of the magmatism crust is thickened by 8 km. Thermomechanical modeling show that the most likely way to generate large spikes of rhyolitic magmatism is through delamination of cumulates and mantle lithosphere after many millions of years of crustal thickening. The paper also presents a chemical dataset for Pacific ashes from ODDP 882 and 883 and compares them to Karymshina ignimbrites and two other Pleistocene calderas studied by us in earlier works.

Kamchatka↗

USGS2019

Current state of knowledge on biological effects from contaminants on arctic wildlife and fish

Since the last Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) effort to review biological effects of the exposure to organohalogen compounds (OHCs) in Arctic biota, there has been a considerable number of new Arctic effect studies. Here, we provide an update on the state of the knowledge of OHC, and also include mercury, exposure and/or associated effects in key Arctic marine and terrestrial mammal and bird species as well as in fish by reviewing the literature published since the last AMAP assessment in 2010. We aimed at updating the knowledge of how single but also combined health effects are or can be associated to the exposure to single compounds or mixtures of OHCs. We also focussed on assessing both potential individual as well as population health impacts using population-specific exposure data post 2000. We have identified quantifiable effects on vitamin metabolism, immune functioning, thyroid and steroid hormone balances, oxidative stress, tissue pathology, and reproduction. As with the previous assessment, a wealth of documentation is available for biological effects in marine mammals and seabirds, and sentinel species such as the sledge dog and Arctic fox, but information for terrestrial vertebrates and fish remain scarce. While hormones and vitamins are thoroughly studied, oxidative stress, immunotoxic and reproductive effects need further investigation. Depending on the species and population, some OHCs and mercury tissue contaminant burdens post 2000 were observed to be high enough to exceed putative risk threshold levels that have been previously estimated for non-target species or populations outside the Arctic. In this assessment, we made use of risk quotient calculations to summarize the cumulative effects of different OHC classes and mercury for which critical body burdens can be estimated for wildlife across the Arctic. As our ultimate goal is to better predict or estimate the effects of OHCs and mercury in Arctic wildlife at the individual, population and ecosystem level, there remain numerous knowledge gaps on the biological effects of exposure in Arctic biota. These knowledge gaps include the establishment of concentration thresholds for individual compounds as well as for realistic cocktail mixtures that in fact indicate biologically relevant, and not statistically determined, health effects for specific species and subpopulations. Finally, we provide future perspectives on understanding Arctic wildlife health using new in vivo, in vitro, and in silico techniques, and provide case studies on multiple stressors to show that future assessments would benefit from significant efforts to integrate human health, wildlife ecology and retrospective and forecasting aspects into assessing the biological effects of OHC and mercury exposure in Arctic wildlife and fish.

Science of the Total Environment↗

USGS2017

The relative effectiveness of empirical and physical models for simulating the dense undercurrent of pyroclastic flows under different emplacement conditions

High concentration pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) are hot avalanches of volcanic rock and gas and are among the most destructive volcanic hazards due to their speed and mobility. Mitigating the risk associated with these flows depends upon accurate forecasting of possible impacted areas, often using empirical or physical models. TITAN2D, VolcFlow, LAHARZ, and Δ H/L or energy cone models each employ different rheologies or empirical relationships and therefore differ in appropriateness of application for different types of mass flows and topographic environments. This work seeks to test different statistically- and physically-based models against a range of PDCs of different volumes, emplaced under different conditions, over different topography in order to test the relative effectiveness, operational aspects, and ultimately, the utility of each model for use in hazard assessments. The purpose of this work is not to rank models, but rather to understand the extent to which the different modeling approaches can replicate reality in certain conditions, and to explore the dynamics of PDCs themselves. In this work, these models are used to recreate the inundation areas of the dense-basal undercurrent of all 13 mapped, land-confined, Soufrière Hills Volcano dome-collapse PDCs emplaced from 1996 to 2010 to test the relative effectiveness of different computational models. Best-fit model results and their input parameters are compared with results using observation- and deposit-derived input parameters. Additional comparison is made between best-fit model results and those using empirically-derived input parameters from the FlowDat global database, which represent “forward” modeling simulations as would be completed for hazard assessment purposes. Results indicate that TITAN2D is able to reproduce inundated areas well using flux sources, although velocities are often unrealistically high. VolcFlow is also able to replicate flow runout well, but does not capture the lateral spreading in distal regions of larger-volume flows. Both models are better at reproducing the inundated area of single-pulse, valley-confined, smaller-volume flows than sustained, highly unsteady, larger-volume flows, which are often partially unchannelized. The simple rheological models of TITAN2D and VolcFlow are not able to recreate all features of these more complex flows. LAHARZ is fast to run and can give a rough approximation of inundation, but may not be appropriate for all PDCs and the designation of starting locations is difficult. The Δ H/L cone model is also very quick to run and gives reasonable approximations of runout distance, but does not inherently model flow channelization or directionality and thus unrealistically covers all interfluves. Empirically-based models like LAHARZ and Δ H/L cones can be quick, first-approximations of flow runout, provided a database of similar flows, e.g., FlowDat, is available to properly calculate coefficients or Δ H/L . For hazard assessment purposes, geophysical models like TITAN2D and VolcFlow can be useful for producing both scenario-based or probabilistic hazard maps, but must be run many times with varying input parameters. LAHARZ and Δ H/L cones can be used to produce simple modeling-based hazard maps when run with a variety of input volumes, but do not explicitly consider the probability of occurrence of different volumes. For forward modeling purposes, the ability to derive potential input parameters from global or local databases is crucial, though important input parameters for VolcFlow cannot be empirically estimated. Not only does this work provide a useful comparison of the operational aspects and behavior of various models for hazard assessment, but it also enriches conceptual understanding of the dynamics of the PDCs themselves.

Frontiers in Earth Science↗