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At least 1,693 records · Page 94Linked to original sources
USGS2023

Changes in mangrove blue carbon under elevated atmospheric CO2

While there is consensus that blue carbon ecosystems, such as mangroves, have an important role in mitigating some aspects of global climate change, little is known about mangrove carbon cycling under elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentrations ( e CO 2 ). Here, we review studies in order to identify pathways for how e CO 2 might influence mangrove ecosystem carbon cycling. In general, e CO 2 alters plant productivity, species community composition, carbon fluxes, and carbon deposition in ways that enhance mangrove carbon storage with e CO 2 . As a result, a negative feedback to climate change exists whereby e CO 2 adds to mangrove’s ability to sequester additional carbon, which in turn reduces the rate by which CO 2 builds. Furthermore, e CO 2 affects warming and sea-level rise (SLR) through alternate pathways, which coinfluence the mangrove response in both antagonistic (i.e., warming = greater carbon loss to decomposition) and synergistic (i.e., SLR = greater soil carbon burial) ways. e CO 2 is projected to become a more prominent driver in the future before reaching a steady state. However, given the complexity of the interactions of biological and environmental factors with e CO 2 , long-term field observations and in situ simulation experiments can help to better understand the mechanisms for proper model initialization to predict future changes in mangrove carbon sequestration.

Ecosystem Health and Sustainability↗
USGS2022

A summary of water-quality and salt marsh monitoring, Humboldt Bay, California

This report summarizes data-collection activities associated with the U.S. Geological Survey Humboldt Bay Water-Quality and Salt Marsh Monitoring Project. This work was undertaken to gain a comprehensive understanding of water-quality conditions, salt marsh accretion processes, marsh-edge erosion, and soil-carbon storage in Humboldt Bay, California. Multiparameter sondes recorded water temperature, specific conductance, and turbidity at a 15-minute timestep at two U.S. Geological Survey water-quality stations: (1) Mad River Slough near Arcata, California (U.S. Geological Survey station 405219124085601) and (2) Hookton Slough near Loleta, California (U.S. Geological Survey station 404038124131801). At each station, discrete water samples were collected to develop surrogate regression models that were used to compute a continuous time series of suspended-sediment concentration from continuously measured turbidity. Data loggers recorded water depth at a 6-minute timestep in the primary tidal channels (Mad River Slough and Hookton Slough) in two adjacent marshes (Mad River marsh and Hookton marsh). The marsh monitoring network included five study marshes. Three marshes (Mad River, Manila, and Jacoby) are in the northern embayment of Humboldt Bay and two marshes (White and Hookton) are in the southern embayment. Surface deposition and elevation change were measured using deep rod surface elevation tables and feldspar marker horizons. Sediment characteristics and soil-carbon storage were measured using a total of 10 shallow cores, distributed across 5 study marshes, collected using an Eijkelkamp peat sampler. Rates of marsh edge erosion (2010–19) were quantified in four marshes (Mad River, Manila, Jacoby, and White) by estimating changes in the areal extent of the vegetated marsh plain using repeat aerial imagery and light detection and ranging (LiDAR)-derived elevation data. During the monitoring period (2016–19), the mean suspended-sediment concentration computed for Hookton Slough (50±20 milligrams per liter [mg/L]) was higher than Mad River Slough (18±7 mg/L). Uncertainty in mean suspended-sediment concentration values is reported using a 90-percent confidence interval. Across the five study marshes, elevation change (+1.8±0.6 millimeters per year [mm/yr]) and surface deposition (+2.5±0.5 mm/yr) were lower than published values of local sea-level rise (4.9±0.8 mm/yr), and mean carbon density was 0.029±0.005 grams of carbon per cubic centimeter. From 2010 to 2019, marsh edge erosion and soil carbon loss were greatest in low-elevation marshes with the marsh edge characterized by a gentle transition from mudflat to vegetated marsh (herein, ramped edge morphology) and larger wind-wave exposure. Jacoby Creek marsh experienced the greatest edge erosion. In total, marsh edge erosion was responsible for 62.3 metric tons of estuarine soil carbon storage loss across four study marshes. Salt marshes are an important component of coastal carbon, which is frequently referred to as “blue carbon.” The monitoring data presented in this report provide fundamental information needed to manage blue carbon stocks, assess marsh vulnerability, inform sea-level rise adaptation planning, and build coastal resiliency to climate change.

California↗
USGS2021

Factors influencing distributional shifts and abundance at the range core of a climate-sensitive mammal

Species are frequently responding to contemporary climate change by shifting to higher elevations and poleward to track suitable climate space. However, depending on local conditions and species’ sensitivity, the nature of these shifts can be highly variable and difficult to predict. Here, we examine how the American pika ( Ochotona princeps ), a philopatric, montane lagomorph, responds to climatic gradients at three spatial scales. Using mixed-effects modeling in an information-theoretic approach, we evaluated a priori model suites regarding predictors of site occupancy, relative abundance, and elevational-range retraction across 760 talus patches, nested within 64 watersheds across the Northern Rocky Mountains of North America, during 2017–2020. The top environmental predictors differed across these response metrics. Warmer temperatures in summer and winter were associated with lower occupancy, lower relative abundances, and greater elevational retraction across watersheds. Occupancy was also strongly influenced by habitat patch size, but only when combined with climate metrics such as actual evapotranspiration. Using a second analytical approach, acute heat stress and summer precipitation best explained retraction residuals (i.e., the relative extent of retraction given the original elevational range of occupancy). Despite the study domain occurring near the species’ geographic-range center, where populations might have higher abundances and be at lower risk of climate-related stress, 33.9% of patches showed evidence of recent extirpations. Pika-extirpated sites averaged 1.44℃ warmer in summer than did occupied sites. Additionally, the minimum elevation of pika occupancy has retracted upslope in 69% of watersheds (mean: 281 m). Our results emphasize the nuance associated with evaluating species’ range dynamics in response to climate gradients, variability, and temperature exceedances, especially in regions where species occupy gradients of conditions that may constitute multiple range edges. Furthermore, this study highlights the importance of evaluating diverse drivers across response metrics to improve the predictive accuracy of widely used, correlative models.

Idaho, Montana↗
USGS2006

Sensitivity of Last Glacial Maximum climate to uncertainties in tropical and subtropical ocean temperatures

The faunal and floral gradients that underlie the CLIMAP (1981) sea-surface temperature (SST) reconstructions for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) reflect ocean temperature gradients and frontal positions. The transfer functions used to reconstruct SSTs from biologic gradients are biased, however, because at the warmest sites they display inherently low sensitivity in translating fauna to SST and they underestimate SST within the euphotic zones where the pycnocline is strong. Here we assemble available data and apply a statistical approach to adjust for hypothetical biases in the faunal-based SST estimates of LGM temperature. The largest bias adjustments are distributed in the tropics (to address low sensitivity) and subtropics (to address underestimation in the euphotic zones). The resulting SSTs are generally in better agreement than CLIMAP with recent geochemical estimates of glacial-interglacial temperature changes. We conducted a series of model experiments using the GENESIS general atmospheric circulation model to assess the sensitivity of the climate system to our bias-adjusted SSTs. Globally, the new SST field results in a modeled LGM surface-air cooling relative to present of 6.4 ??C (1.9 ??C cooler than that of CLIMAP). Relative to the simulation with CLIMAP SSTs, modeled precipitation over the oceans is reduced by 0.4 mm d-1 (an anomaly -0.4 versus 0.0 mm d-1 for CLIMAP) and increased over land (an anomaly -0.2 versus -0.5 mm d-1 for CLIMAP). Regionally strong responses are induced by changes in SST gradients. Data-model comparisons indicate improvement in agreement relative to CLIMAP, but differences among terrestrial data inferences and simulated moisture and temperature remain. Our SSTs result in positive mass balance over the northern hemisphere ice sheets (primarily through reduced summer ablation), supporting the hypothesis that tropical and subtropical ocean temperatures may have played a role in triggering glacial changes at higher latitudes.

Quaternary Science Reviews↗
USGS2023

Advancing best practices for the analysis of the vulnerability of military installations in the Pacific Basin to coastal flooding under a changing climate – RC-2644

Coastal flooding takes many forms, ranging from major flooding associated with storms to minor flooding associated with exceptionally high tides and other oceanic and atmospheric phenomena on storm-free days. A major societal challenge is to understand and predict how flood magnitude and frequency will manifest at particular places and times, now and in the future. Of particular interest here is how coastal flooding will impact Department of Defense (DoD) installations. In response to this need, this work aims to advance the practical application of statistical and other analytical techniques that can be used to assess the exposure, and ultimately the vulnerability, of built and natural environments to the impacts of coastal flooding. A variety of methods are described and applied to assess exposure. This includes tide gauge station-based diagnosis and prognosis of patterns and trends of Still Water Level, techniques to characterize the expression of ‘lesser extremes’ (e.g., sub-annual to subdecadal event probabilities), and region-wide analysis that improves upon results obtained from conventional single-tide gauge analyses. A novel hybrid statistical and dynamical modeling approach is applied to the analysis of Total Water Levels, necessary for exposure assessment along shorelines exposed to wave action. The hybrid exposure assessment modeling approach is incorporated into a broader mission-based protocol for the assessment of resilience to coastal flooding at the installation level. Demonstrated via an exemplar assessment, which takes into account functional (lost day) as well as financial impacts (lost dollars), the protocol meets the demand for an actionable characterization of how DoD installations will be affected by coastal flooding and improves DoD’s ability to make informed decisions about how to adapt to its effects. The methods described, evaluated, and applied here, including innovative approaches and proof-of-concept products developed through this work, are incorporated into and considered within an analytical framework that serves as guidance as to their relative merits with respect to coastal flood exposure assessment in various circumstances and settings, and illustrates best practices. This will provide engineers, scientists and other practitioners with an enhanced capability to generate information that can be used to support area-wide assessment related to climate adaptation planning and disaster risk reduction as well as site-specific analysis related to design and maintenance of facilities and infrastructure. While the focus is on a select set of DoD sites in the Pacific Basin, the results have broad applicability nationally as well as globally.

Final Report↗
USGS2016

Development and assessment of indices to determine stream fish vulnerability to climate change and habitat alteration

Understanding the future impacts of climate and land use change are critical for long-term biodiversity conservation. We developed and compared two indices to assess the vulnerability of stream fish in Missouri, USA based on species environmental tolerances, rarity, range size, dispersal ability and on the average connectivity of the streams occupied by each species. These two indices differed in how environmental tolerance was classified (i.e., vulnerability to habitat alteration, changes in stream temperature, and changes to flow regimes). Environmental tolerance was classified based on measured species responses to habitat alteration, and extremes in stream temperatures and flow conditions for one index, while environmental tolerance for the second index was based on species’ traits. The indices were compared to determine if vulnerability scores differed by index or state listing status. We also evaluated the spatial distribution of species classified as vulnerable to habitat alteration, changes in stream temperature, and change in flow regimes. Vulnerability scores were calculated for all 133 species with the trait association index, while only 101 species were evaluated using the species response index, because 32 species lacked data to analyze for a response. Scores from the trait association index were greater than the species response index. This is likely due to the species response index's inability to evaluate many rare species, which generally had high vulnerability scores for the trait association index. The indices were consistent in classifying vulnerability to habitat alteration, but varied in their classification of vulnerability due to increases in stream temperature and alterations to flow regimes, likely because extremes in current climate may not fully capture future conditions and their influence on stream fish communities. Both indices showed higher mean vulnerability scores for listed species than unlisted species, which provided a coarse measure of validation. Our indices classified species identified as being in need of conservation by the state of Missouri as highly vulnerable. The distribution of vulnerable species in Missouri showed consistent patterns between indices, with the more forest-dominated, groundwater fed streams in the Ozark subregion generally having higher numbers and proportions of vulnerable species per site than subregions that were agriculturally dominated with more overland flow. These results suggest that both indices will identify similar habitats as conservation action targets despite discrepancies in the classification of vulnerable species. Our vulnerability assessment provides a framework that can be refined and used in other regions.

Ecological Indicators↗
USGS2016

Channel-planform evolution in four rivers of Olympic National Park, Washington, U.S.A.: The roles of physical drivers and trophic cascades

Identifying the relative contributions of physical and ecological processes to channel evolution remains a substantial challenge in fluvial geomorphology. We use a 74-year aerial photographic record of the Hoh, Queets, Quinault, and Elwha Rivers, Olympic National Park, Washington, U.S.A., to investigate whether physical or trophic-cascade-driven ecological factors—excessive elk impacts after wolves were extirpated a century ago—are the dominant controls on channel planform of these gravel-bed rivers. We find that channel width and braiding show strong relationships with recent flood history. All four rivers have widened significantly in recent decades, consistent with increased flood activity since the 1970s. Channel planform also reflects sediment-supply changes, evident from landslide response on the Elwha River. We surmise that the Hoh River, which shows a multi-decadal trend toward greater braiding, is adjusting to increased sediment supply associated with rapid glacial retreat. In this sediment-routing system with high connectivity, such climate-driven signals appear to propagate downstream without being buffered substantially by sediment storage. Legacy effects of anthropogenic modification likely also affect the Quinault River planform. We infer no correspondence between channel geomorphic evolution and elk abundance, suggesting that trophic-cascade effects in this setting are subsidiary to physical controls on channel morphology. Our findings differ from previous interpretations of Olympic National Park fluvial dynamics and contrast with the classic example of Yellowstone National Park, where legacy effects of elk overuse are apparent in channel morphology; we attribute these differences to hydrologic regime and large-wood availability.

Washington↗
USGS2018

Tidal extension and sea-level rise: recommendations for a research agenda

Sea-level rise is pushing freshwater tides upstream into formerly non-tidal rivers. This tidal extension may increase the area of tidal freshwater ecosystems and offset loss of ecosystem functions due to salinization downstream. Without considering how gains in ecosystem functions could offset losses, landscape-scale assessments of ecosystem functions may be biased toward worst-case scenarios of loss. To stimulate research on this concept, we address three fundamental questions about tidal extension: Where will tidal extension be most evident, and can we measure it? What ecosystem functions are influenced by tidal extension, and how can we measure them? How do watershed processes, climate change, and tidal extension interact to affect ecosystem functions? Our preliminary answers lead to recommendations that will advance tidal extension research, enable better predictions of the impacts of sea-level rise, and help balance the landscape-scale benefits of ecosystem function with costs of response.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗
USGS2019

Enhancement of primary production during drought in a temperate watershed is greater in larger rivers than headwater streams

Drought is common in rivers, yet how this disturbance regulates metabolic activity across network scales is largely unknown. Drought often lowers gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER) in small headwaters but by contrast can enhance GPP and cause algal blooms in downstream estuaries. We estimated ecosystem metabolism across a nested network of 13 reaches from headwaters to the main stem of the Connecticut River from 2015 through 2017, which encompassed a pronounced drought. During drought, GPP and ER increased, but with greater enhancement in larger rivers. Responses of GPP and ER were partially due to warmer temperatures associated with drought, particularly in the larger rivers where temperatures during summer drought were > 10°C higher than typical summer baseflow. The larger rivers also had low canopy cover, which allowed primary producers to take advantage of lower turbidity and fewer cloudy days during drought. We conclude that GPP is enhanced by higher temperature, lower turbidity, and longer water residence times that are all a function of low discharge, but ecosystem response in temperate watersheds to these drivers depends on light availability regulated by riparian canopy cover. In larger rivers, GPP increased more than ER during drought, even leading to temporary autotrophy, an otherwise rare event in the typically light‐limited heterotrophic Connecticut River main stem. With climate change, rivers and streams may become warmer and drought frequency and severity may increase. Such changes may increase autotrophy in rivers with broad implications for carbon cycling and water quality in aquatic ecosystems.

Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Vermont↗
USGS2018

Evidence for geographic variation in life-cycle processes affecting phenology of the Lyme disease vector Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae) in the United States

The seasonal activity pattern of immature Ixodes scapularis Say (Acari: Ixodidae) varies geographically in the United States, which may affect the efficiency of transmission cycles of pathogens transmitted by this species. To study the factors that determine seasonality, a multiyear study at seven sites across the geographic range of I. scapularis systematically collected questing ticks by flagging/dragging, and feeding ticks by capture of their hosts. The observed phenology patterns were consistent with previous studies reporting geographic variation in seasonal tick activity. Predictions of seasonal activity for each site were obtained from an I. scapularis simulation model calibrated using contemporaneous weather data. A range of scenarios for life-cycle processes—including different regimes of temperature-independent behavioral and developmental diapause, variations in temperature–development rate relationships, and temperature-dependent tick activity—were used in model formulations. These formulations produced a range of simulations of seasonal activity for each site and were compared against the field observed tick data using negative binomial regression models. Best fit scenarios were chosen for each site on the basis of Akaike’s information criterion and regression model parameters. This analysis suggests that temperature-independent diapause mechanisms explain some key observed variations in I. scapularis seasonality, and are responsible in part for geographic variations in I. scapularis seasonality in the United States. However, diapause appears to operate in idiosyncratic ways in different regions of the United States, so further studies on populations in different regions will be needed to enable predictive modeling of climatic and climate change effects on I. scapularis seasonal activity and pathogen transmission.

Journal of Medical Entomology↗
USGS2013

National assessment of geologic carbon dioxide storage resources: methodology implementation

In response to the 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducted a national assessment of potential geologic storage resources for carbon dioxide (CO2). Storage of CO2 in subsurface saline formations is one important method to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and curb global climate change. This report provides updates and implementation details of the assessment methodology of Brennan and others (2010, http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2010/1127/) and describes the probabilistic model used to calculate potential storage resources in subsurface saline formations.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2004

Geohydrology of the French Creek Basin and simulated effects of drought and ground-water withdrawals, Chester County, Pennsylvania

This report describes the results of a study by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Delaware River Basin Commission, to develop a regional ground-water-flow model of the French Creek Basin in Chester County, Pa. The model was used to assist water-resource managers by illustrating the interconnection between ground-water and surface-water systems. The 70.7-square mile French Creek Basin is in the Piedmont Physiographic Province and is underlain by crystalline and sedimentary fractured-rock aquifers. Annual water budgets were calculated for 1969-2001 for the French Creek Basin upstream of streamflow-measurement station French Creek near Phoenixville (01472157). Average annual precipitation was 46.28 in. (inches), average annual streamflow was 20.29 in., average annual base flow determined by hydrograph separation was 12.42 in., and estimated average annual ET (evapotranspiration) was 26.10 in. Estimated average annual recharge was 14.32 in. and is equal to 31 percent of the average annual precipitation. Base flow made up an average of 61 percent of streamflow. Ground-water flow in the French Creek Basin was simulated using the finite-difference MODFLOW-96 computer program. The model structure is based on a simplified two-dimensional conceptualization of the ground-water-flow system. The modeled area was extended outside the French Creek Basin to natural hydrologic boundaries; the modeled area includes 40 square miles of adjacent areas outside the basin. The hydraulic conductivity for each geologic unit was calculated from reported specific-capacity data determined from aquifer tests and was adjusted during model calibration. The model was calibrated for above-average conditions by simulating base-flow and water-level measurements made on May 1, 2001, using a recharge rate of 20 in/yr (inches per year). The model was calibrated for below-average conditions by simulating base-flow and water-level measurements made on September 11 and 17, 2001, using a recharge rate of 6.2 in/yr. Average conditions were simulated by adjusting the recharge rate until simulated streamflow at streamflow-measurement station 01472157 matched the long-term (1968-2001) average base flow of 54.1 cubic feet per second. The recharge rate used for average conditions was 15.7 in/yr. The effect of drought in the French Creek Basin was simulated using a drought year recharge rate of 8 in/yr for 3 months. After 3 months of drought, the simulated streamflow of French Creek at streamflow-measurement station 01472157 decreased 34 percent. The simulations show that after 6 months of average recharge (15.7 in/yr) following drought, streamflow and water levels recovered almost to pre-drought conditions. The effect of increased ground-water withdrawals on stream base flow in the South Branch French Creek Subbasin was simulated under average and drought conditions with pumping rates equal to 50, 75, and 100 percent of the Delaware River Basin Commission Ground Water Protected Area (GWPA) withdrawal limit (1,393 million gallons per year) with all pumped water removed from the basin. For average recharge conditions, the simulated streamflow of South Branch French Creek at the mouth decreased 18, 28, and 37 percent at a withdrawal rate equal to 50, 75, and 100 percent of the GWPA limit, respectively. After 3 months of drought recharge conditions, the simulated streamflow of South Branch French Creek at the mouth decreased 27, 40, and 52 percent at a withdrawal rate equal to 50, 75, and 100 percent of the GWPA limit, respectively. The effect of well location on base flow, water levels, and the sources of water to the well was simulated by locating a hypothetical well pumping 200 gallons per minute in different places in the Beaver Run Subbasin with all pumped water removed from the basin. The smallest reduction in the base flow of Beaver Run was from a well on the drainage divide between the French Creek Basin and the Marsh Creek Basin to the south; the simulated base flow of Beaver Run at the mouth was reduced 1 percent. The greatest reduction in the base flow of Beaver Creek was from a well close to Beaver Run; the simulated base flow of Beaver Run at the mouth was reduced 8 percent. The simulations showed that (1) if the contributing area of a well is in a basin, pumping will affect stream base flow and water levels in that basin whether the well is inside or outside that basin; (2) wells in different areas of a basin away from a divide produce a similar reduction in base flow; (3) a well within a basin will derive more water from diverted base flow and less water from storage than a well on or near a basin divide; and (4) the reduction in base flow at the mouth of the stream is the same for a well in the headwaters and a well downstream near the confluence. Model simulations illustrate some of the typical analyses and results that can be produced. The model was calibrated using annual values for recharge and ground-water ET and then was run using the annual values in a seasonally independent transient mode to show changes with time. The timing and relative magnitude of some of the changes simulated with the model when viewed in terms of a normal climatic year may be subject to considerable uncertainty because of the variability in seasonal recharge and ground-water ET rates. Transient model simulations for short-term periods are indicative of possible hydrologic system response and are considered an approximation.

Pennsyvlania↗
USGS2024

Marine heatwaves affect breeding, diet and population size but not body condition of a range-edge little penguin colony

Significant marine heatwaves (MHWs) developed along the Western Australian coast in 1999 and 2011. Despite ecosystem losses and the southwards occurrence of many tropical fish species during and after the extreme MHW in 2011, there have been few studies on the effects of this MHW on seabirds, and no biological impacts related to the 1999 MHW have been reported. Using data from 1986-2019, we investigated the impacts of these events on breeding outcomes, body condition, diet composition, population size and mortality of little penguins on Penguin Island, in the temperate waters off Western Australia. Breeding outcomes were negatively impacted by the MHWs but body condition was not. Diet composition changed after the MHW, with sandy sprat Hyperlophus vittatus , the penguins’ typical major prey component, replaced by scaly mackerel Sardinella lemuru , a tropical fish species. Using an open robust design analysis that accounts for imperfect capture probabilities and staggered annual arrival and departure dates, we found that the population decreased by 80% following the 2011 MHW. Finally, more penguins died from starvation or from novel protozoal parasitic infections in 2011 and 2012 that were potentially introduced with the changed diet. This research highlights that the temporal and spatial influence of MHWs on seabirds depends on several factors. Furthermore, the magnitude and direction of a prey species’ response can be very localised and have significant impacts on avian predators. There are no obvious ways to mediate climate effects, but perhaps measures taken to reduce any synergistic impacts on prey abundance, particularly during MHW events, could be effective.

Penguin Island↗
USGS2016

Vulnerability of shortgrass prairie bird assemblages to climate change

The habitats and resources needed to support grassland birds endemic to North American prairie ecosystems are seriously threatened by impending climate change. To assess the vulnerability of grassland birds to climate change, we consider various components of vulnerability, including sensitivity, exposure, and adaptive capacity (Glick et al. 2011). Sensitivity encompasses the innate characteristics of a species and, in this context, is related to a species’ tolerance to changes in weather patterns. Groundnesting birds, including prairie birds, are particularly responsive to heat waves combined with drought conditions, as revealed by abundance and distribution patterns (Albright et al. 2010). To further assess sensitivity, we estimated reproductive parameters of nearly 3000 breeding attempts of a suite of prairie birds relative to prevailing weather. Fluctuations in weather conditions in eastern Colorado, 1997-2014, influenced breeding performance of a suite of avian species endemic to the shortgrass prairie, many of which have experienced recent population declines. High summer temperatures and intense rain events corresponded with lower nest survival for most species. Although dry conditions favored nest survival of Burrowing Owls and Mountain Plovers (Conrey 2010, Dreitz et al. 2012), drought resulted in smaller clutch sizes and lower nest survival for passerines (Skagen and Yackel Adams 2012, Conrey et al. in review). Declining summer precipitation may reduce the likelihood that some passerine species can maintain stable breeding populations in this region of the shortgrass prairie.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2013

Thermal controls of Yellowstone cutthroat trout and invasive fishes under climate change

We combine large observed data sets and dynamically downscaled climate data to explore historic and future (2050–2069) stream temperature changes over the topographically diverse Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (elevation range = 824–4017 m). We link future stream temperatures with fish growth models to investigate how changing thermal regimes could influence the future distribution and persistence of native Yellowstone cutthroat trout (YCT) and competing invasive species. We find that stream temperatures during the recent decade (2000–2009) surpass the anomalously warm period of the 1930s. Climate simulations indicate air temperatures will warm by 1 °C to >3 °C over the Greater Yellowstone by mid-21st century, resulting in concomitant increases in 2050–2069 peak stream temperatures and protracted periods of warming from May to September (MJJAS). Projected changes in thermal regimes during the MJJAS growing season modify the trajectories of daily growth rates at all elevations with pronounced growth during early and late summer. For high-elevation populations, we find considerable increases in fish body mass attributable both to warming of cold-water temperatures and to extended growing seasons. During peak July to August warming, mid-21st century temperatures will cause periods of increased thermal stress, rendering some low-elevation streams less suitable for YCT. The majority (80%) of sites currently inhabited by YCT, however, display minimal loss (<10%) or positive changes in total body mass by midcentury; we attribute this response to the fact that many low-elevation populations of YCT have already been extirpated by historical changes in land use and invasions of non-native species. Our results further suggest that benefits to YCT populations due to warmer stream temperatures at currently cold sites could be offset by the interspecific effects of corresponding growth of sympatric, non-native species, underscoring the importance of developing climate adaptation strategies that reduce limiting factors such as non-native species and habitat degradation.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2022

You vs. us: Framing adaptation behavior in terms of private or social benefits

Private actions to mitigate and adapt to climate change may have benefits to both the individual and society. In some cases, an individual may be motivated by appeals that highlight benefits to others, rather than to oneself. We test whether such prosocial framing influences information-seeking behavior to address wildfire risk among homeowners. In a field experiment across ten communities in western Colorado, property owners ( n = 2977) received a postcard from their local fire department highlighting the impact of risk mitigation to either “your property” ( private benefits ) or “our community” ( social benefits ). The postcard directed recipients to visit a personalized webpage on wildfire risk. Overall, 10.5% of property owners visited their personalized risk webpage. There was little difference in webpage visitation between those who received the social (11.3%) rather than the private (9.7%) benefits message ( χ 2 = 1.74, p = 0.19). However, response may depend on a property owner’s relationship to the community. Those who reside within the community (as opposed to out-of-town owners) or who were in an evacuation zone during a recent wildfire were more likely to visit their webpages after receiving the social benefits message. How homeowners view their contributions to shared risk and whether simple changes in messaging influence prosocial behavior can inform efforts to address climate-exacerbated hazards.

Climatic Change↗
USGS2009

Chemical weathering of a marine terrace chronosequence, Santa Cruz, California. Part II: Solute profiles, gradients and the comparisons of contemporary and long-term weathering rates

The spatial and temporal changes in hydrology and pore water elemental and 87 Sr/ 86 Sr compositions are used to determine contemporary weathering rates in a 65- to 226-kyr-old soil chronosequence formed from granitic sediments deposited on marine terraces along coastal California. Soil moisture, tension and saturation exhibit large seasonal variations in shallow soils in response to a Mediterranean climate. These climate effects are dampened in underlying argillic horizons that progressively developed in older soils, and reached steady-state conditions in unsaturated horizons extending to depths in excess of 15 m. Hydraulic fluxes (q h ), based on Cl mass balances, vary from 0.06 to 0.22 m yr -1 , resulting in fluid residence times in the terraces of 10-24 yrs. As expected for a coastal environment, the order of cation abundances in soil pore waters is comparable to sea water, i.e., Na > Mg > Ca > K > Sr, while the anion sequence Cl > NO 3 > HCO 3 > SO 4 reflects modifying effects of nutrient cycling in the grassland vegetation. Net Cl-corrected solute Na, K and Si increase with depth, denoting inputs from feldspar weathering. Solute 87 Sr/ 86 Sr ratios exhibit progressive mixing of sea water-dominated precipitation with inputs from less radiogenic plagioclase. While net Sr and Ca concentrations are anomalously high in shallow soils due to biological cycling, they decline with depth to low and/or negative net concentrations. Ca/Mg, Sr/Mg and 87 Sr/ 86 Sr solute and exchange ratios are similar in all the terraces, denoting active exchange equilibration with selectivities close to unity for both detrital smectite and secondary kaolinite. Large differences in the magnitudes of the pore waters and exchange reservoirs result in short-term buffering of the solute Ca, Sr, and Mg. Such buffering over geologic time scales can not be sustained due to declining inputs from residual plagioclase and smectite, implying periodic resetting of the exchange reservoir such as by past vegetational changes and/or climate. Pore waters approach thermodynamic saturation with respect to albite at depth in the younger terraces, indicating that weathering rates ultimately become transport-limited and dependent on hydrologic flux. Contemporary rates R solute are estimated from linear Na and Si pore weathering gradients b solute such that R solute = frac(q h , b solute ?? S v ) where S v is the volumetric surface area and ?? is the stoichiometric coefficient. Plagioclase weathering rates (0.38-2.8 ?? 10 -15 mol m -2 s -1 ) are comparable to those based on 87 Sr/ 86 Sr mass balances and solid-state Na and Ca gradients using analogous gradient approximations. In addition, contemporary solute gradients, under transport-limited conditions, approximate long-term solid-state gradients when normalized against the mass of protolith plagioclase and its corresponding aqueous solubility. The multi-faceted weathering analysis presented in this paper is perhaps the most comprehensive yet applied to a single field study. Within uncertainties of the methods used, present day weathering rates, based on solute characterizations, are comparable to average long-term past rates as evidenced by soil profiles.

Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta↗
USGS2022

Searching for refuge: A framework for identifying site factors conferring resistance to climate-driven vegetation change

Climate change is occurring at accelerated rates in high latitude regions such as Alaska, causing alterations in woody plant growth and associated ecosystem patterns and processes. Our aim is to assess the magnitude and speed that climate-induced changes in woody plant distribution and volume may be reduced and/or slowed by relatively static landscape features like physical characteristics (e.g. depth to gravel, mineral cover percent and slope degree) and/or edaphic properties (e.g. soil organic matter, soil pH and site wetness rating) that resist climate-vegetation responses

Alaska↗