Baseline demographics of a nonnative lake trout population and inferences for suppression from sensitivity-elasticity analyses
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Although wide-ranging, elusive, large carnivore species, such as the tiger, are of scientific and conservation interest, rigorous inferences about their population dynamics are scarce because of methodological problems of sampling populations at the required spatial and temporal scales. We report the application of a rigorous, noninvasive method for assessing tiger population dynamics to test model-based predictions about population viability. We obtained photographic capture histories for 74 individual tigers during a nine-year study involving 5725 trap-nights of effort. These data were modeled under a likelihood-based, ?robust design? capture?recapture analytic framework. We explicitly modeled and estimated ecological parameters such as time-specific abundance, density, survival, recruitment, temporary emigration, and transience, using models that incorporated effects of factors such as individual heterogeneity, trap-response, and time on probabilities of photo-capturing tigers. The model estimated a random temporary emigration parameter of =K' =Y' 0.10 ? 0.069 (values are estimated mean ? SE). When scaled to an annual basis, tiger survival rates were estimated at S = 0.77 ? 0.051, and the estimated probability that a newly caught animal was a transient was = 0.18 ? 0.11. During the period when the sampled area was of constant size, the estimated population size Nt varied from 17 ? 1.7 to 31 ? 2.1 tigers, with a geometric mean rate of annual population change estimated as = 1.03 ? 0.020, representing a 3% annual increase. The estimated recruitment of new animals, Bt, varied from 0 ? 3.0 to 14 ? 2.9 tigers. Population density estimates, D, ranged from 7.33 ? 0.8 tigers/100 km2 to 21.73 ? 1.7 tigers/100 km2 during the study. Thus, despite substantial annual losses and temporal variation in recruitment, the tiger density remained at relatively high levels in Nagarahole. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that protected wild tiger populations can remain healthy despite heavy mortalities because of their inherently high reproductive potential. The ability to model the entire photographic capture history data set and incorporate reduced-parameter models led to estimates of mean annual population change that were sufficiently precise to be useful. This efficient, noninvasive sampling approach can be used to rigorously investigate the population dynamics of tigers and other elusive, rare, wide-ranging animal species in which individuals can be identified from photographs or other means.
Land cover maps are essential for characterizing the biophysical properties of the Earth’s land areas. Because land cover information synthesizes a rich array of information related to both the ecological condition of land areas and their exploitation by humans, they are widely used for basic and applied research that requires information related to land surface properties (e.g., terrestrial carbon models, water balance models, weather, and climate models) and are core inputs to models and analyses used by natural resource scientists and land managers. As the Earth’s global population has grown over the last several decades rates of land cover change have increased dramatically, with enormous impacts on ecosystem services (e.g., biodiversity, water supply, carbon sequestration, etc.). Hence, accurate information related to land cover is essential for both managing natural resources and for understanding society’s ecological, biophysical, and resource management footprint. To address the need for high-quality land cover information we are using the global record of Landsat observations to compile annual maps of global land cover from 2001 to 2020 at 30 m spatial resolution. To create these maps we use features derived from time series of Landsat imagery in combination with ancillary geospatial data and a large database of training sites to classify land cover at annual time step. The algorithm that we apply uses temporal segmentation to identify periods with stable land cover that are separated by breakpoints in the time series. Here we provide an overview of the methods and data sets we are using to create global maps of land cover. We describe the algorithms used to create these maps and the core land cover data sets that we are creating through this effort, and we summarize our approach to accuracy assessment. We also present a synthesis of early results and discuss the strengths and weaknesses of our early map products and the challenges that we have encountered in creating global land cover data sets from Landsat. Initial accuracy assessment for North America shows good overall accuracy (77.0 ± 2.0% correctly classified) and 79.8% agreement with the European Space Agency (ESA) WorldCover product. The land cover mapping results we report provide the foundation for robust, repeatable, and accurate mapping of global land cover and land cover change across multiple decades at 30 m spatial resolution from Landsat.
In-stream barriers pose threats to fishes, including habitat loss, constraints on migration, and reduced connectivity between populations. Despite many negative consequences, barriers can serve to protect native species by limiting the spread of invasive species. For example, in the Laurentian Great Lakes, physical barriers have long been used to control invasive sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) populations by limiting access to potential upstream spawning and rearing habitat. Selective fish passage systems could solve this management trade-off, termed the “connectivity conundrum”, but must efficiently pass multiple native or desirable species while blocking invasive species. Designing such fish passage systems requires an understanding of the attribute dimensions of the fish community, specifically, the phenology, morphology, physiology, and behaviour of each species. Here, we describe the first comprehensive collection of sortable attributes associated with fish passage. The integrated database consists of 21 biological attributes that influence the movement and passage of 220 species in the Great Lakes, including native species, established non-native species, and unestablished but potentially invasive fishes. Data coverage varies with species, taxonomic orders, and attribute dimensions. Behavioural attributes were typically underrepresented in the literature, and the ecology of potential invaders was not well understood. The synthesis described herein is a critical step towards a holistic approach to fish passage design and may help to inform management actions related to population connectivity. The database is openly accessible online and is expected to be updated periodically.
The Aransas-Wood Buffalo population (the only non-reintroduced, migratory population) of endangered whooping cranes ( Grus americana ) overwinters along the Texas Gulf Coast, USA. Understanding whooping crane space use on the wintering grounds reveals essential aspects of this species' ecology, which subsequently assists with conservation. Using global positioning system telemetry data from marked whooping cranes during 2009–2017, we fit continuous-time stochastic process models to describe movement and home range using autocorrelated kernel density estimation (AKDE) and explored variation in home range size in relation to age, sex, reproductive status, and drought conditions. We used the Bhattacharyya coefficient of overlap and distance between home range centroids to quantify site fidelity. We examined the effects of time between winter home ranges and the sex of the crane on site fidelity using Bayesian mixed-effects beta regression. Winter whooping crane 95% AKDE home range size averaged 30.1 ± 45.2 (SD) km 2 (median = 14.3, range = 1.1–308.6). Home ranges of sub-adult females were approximately 2 times larger than those of sub-adult males or families. As drought worsened, home ranges typically expanded. Between consecutive years, the home ranges of an adult crane exhibited 68 ± 31% overlap (site fidelity), but fidelity to winter sites declined in subsequent winters. The overlap of adult home ranges with the nearest unrelated family averaged 33 ± 28%. As a whooping crane aged, overlap with its winter home range as a juvenile declined, regardless of sex. By 4 years of age, a whooping crane had approximately 14 ± 28% overlap with its juvenile winter home range. Limited evidence suggested male whooping cranes return to within 2 km of their juvenile home range by their fifth winter. Previous data obtained from aerial surveys led ecologists to assume that whooping crane families normally used small areas (~2 km 2 ) and expressed persistent site fidelity. Our analyses showed <8% of families had home ranges ≤2 km 2 , with the average area 15 times greater, and waning site fidelity over time. Our work represents an analysis of whooping crane home ranges for this population, identifying past misconceptions of winter space use and resulting in better estimates of space requirements for future conservation efforts.
Beaver (Castor spp.) conservation requires an understanding of their complex interactions with competing herbivores. Simulation modeling offers a controlled environment to examine long-term dynamics in ecosystems driven by uncontrollable variables. We used a new version of the SAVANNA ecosystem model to investigate beaver (C. canadensis) and elk (Cervus elaphus) competition for willow (Salix spp.). We initialized the model with field data from Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, USA, to simulate a 4-ha riparian ecosystem containing beaver, elk, and willow. We found beaver persisted indefinitely when elk density was <= 20 elk km (2). Beaver persistence decreased exponentially as elk density increased from 30 to 60 elk km(2), which suggests the presence of an ecological threshold. The interaction of beaver and elk herbivory shifted the size distribution of willow plants from tall to short when elk densities were >= 30 elk km (2). The loss of tall willow preceded rapid beaver declines, thus willow condition may predict beaver population trajectory in natural environments. Beaver were able to persist with slightly higher elk densities if beaver alternated their use of foraging sites in a rest-rotation pattern rather than maintained continuous use. Thus, we found asymmetrical competition for willow strongly favored elk over beaver in a simulated montane ecosystem. Finally, we discuss application of the SAVANNA model and mechanisms of competition relative to beaver persistence as metapopulations, ecological resistance and alternative state models, and ecosystem regulation.
Program MARK provides .100 models for the estimation of population parameters from mark?encounter data. The multistate model of Brownie et al. (1993) and Hestbeck et al. (1991) allows animals to move between states with a probability of transition. The simplest multistate model is an extension of the Cormack?Jolly?Seber (CJS) live recapture model. arameters estimated are state-specific survival rates and encounter probabilities and transition probabilities between states. The multistate model provides a valuable framework to evaluate important ecological questions. For example, estimation of state-specific survival and transition probabilities between the biological states of breeders and nonbreeders allows estimation of the cost of reproduction. Transitions between physical states, such as spatial areas, provide estimates needed for meta-population models. The basic multistate model uses only live recaptures, but 3 extensions are included in MARK. A multistate model with live and dead encounters is available, although the dead encounters are not state specific. Robust-design multistate models are also included in MARK, with both open and closed robust designs. These models assume that animals move between states only between primary sessions of the robust design. For the closed robust design, we can specify 12 different data types for the modeling of encounter probabilities during the primary session, including 6 versions of the closed model likelihood incorporating population size (N) directly in the likelihood, and 6 versions of the Huggins model in which N is estimated as a derived parameter outside the likelihood. One assumption that is generally necessary to estimate state-specific survival rates in the multistate model is that transitions take place immediately before encounter occasions. Otherwise, survival rates over the interval between encounter occasions are a mix of survival rates over multiple states. Advantages of using MARK to estimate the parameters of the various multistate models include flexibility of model specification to include group, time, and individual covariates, estimation of variance components, model averaging of parameter estimates, and Bayesian parameter estimation using Markov chain Monte Carlo procedures on the logit scale.
Some of the biggest challenges facing wildlife today are changes to their environment from both natural and anthropogenic causes. Natural resource managers, planners, policy makers, industry and private landowners must make informed decisions and policies regarding management, conservation, and restoration of species, habitats, and ecosystem function in response to these changes. Specific needs include (1) a better understanding of population status and trends; (2) understanding of species’ habitat needs and roles in supporting ecosystem functions; (3) the ability to assess species’ responses to environmental changes and predict future responses; and (4) the development of innovative techniques and tools to better understand, minimize or prevent any unintended consequences of environmental change. The Trust Species and Habitats Branch of the Fort Collins Science Center includes a diverse group of scientists encompassing both traditional and specialized expertise in wildlife biology, ecosystem ecology, quantitative ecology, disease ecology, molecular genetics, and stable isotope geochemistry. Using our expertise and collaborating with others around the world, our goal is to provide the information, tools, and technologies that our partners need to support conservation, management, and restoration of terrestrial vertebrate populations, habitats, and ecosystem function in a changing world.
Mountain Whitefish Prosopium williamsoni were historically common throughout much of the U.S. Intermountain West. However, within the last decade Mountain Whitefish have exhibited population-level declines in some rivers. In the Madison River, Montana, anecdotal evidence indicates Mountain Whitefish abundance has declined and the population is skewed toward larger individuals, which is typically symptomatic of recruitment problems. Describing reproductive development, spawning behavior, and juvenile distribution will form a foundation for investigating mechanisms influencing recruitment. We collected otoliths and gonadal samples from fish of all size-classes to characterize fecundity, age at maturity, and spawning periodicity. We implanted radio tags in mature Mountain Whitefish and relocated tagged fish in autumn 2012–2014. Timing of spawning was determined from spawning status of captured females and from density of eggs collected on egg mats. In spring 2014, we seined backwater and channel sites to describe age-0 whitefish distribution. Mountain Whitefish were highly fecund (18,454 eggs/kg body weight) annual spawners, and age at 50% maturity was 2.0 years for males and 2.6 years for females. In 2013 and 2014, spawning occurred between the third week of October and first week of November. During spawning, spawning adults and collected embryos were concentrated in the downstream 26 km of the study site, a reach characterized by a complex, braided channel. This reach had the highest CPUE of age-0 Mountain Whitefish, and the percentage of spawning adults in the 25 km upstream from a sampling site was positively associated with juvenile CPUE. Within this reach, age-0 Mountain Whitefish were associated with silt-laden backwater and eddy habitats. Future investigations on mechanisms influencing recruitment should be focused on the embryological phase and age-0 fish.
Papers and panel discussions given during a 1992 symposium on bioenergetics models are summarized. Bioenergetics models have been applied to a variety of research and management questions related to fish stocks, populations, food webs, and ecosystems. Applications include estimates of the intensity and dynamics of predator-prey interactions, nutrient cycling within aquatic food webs of varying trophic structure, and food requirements of single animals, whole populations, and communities of fishes. As tools in food web and ecosystem applications, bioenergetics models have been used to compare forage consumption by salmonid predators across the Laurentian Great Lakes for single populations and whole communities, and to estimate the growth potential of pelagic predators in Chesapeake Bay and Lake Ontario. Some critics say that bioenergetics models lack sufficient detail to produce reliable results in such field applications, whereas others say that the models are too complex to be useful tools for fishery managers. Nevertheless, bioenergetics models have achieved notable predictive successes. Improved estimates are needed for model parameters such as metabolic costs of activity, and more complete studies are needed of the bioenergetics of larval and juvenile fishes. Future research on bioenergetics should include laboratory and field measurements of key model parameters such as weight-dependent maximum consumption, respiration and activity, and thermal habitats actually occupied by fish. Future applications of bioenergetics models to fish populations also depend on accurate estimates of population sizes and survival rates.
Interspecific differences in tadpole morphology among leopard frogs of the Rana pipiens complex may represent adaptations to larval habitats. We documented variation in tadpole morphology among populations of R. chiricahuensis and compared intraspecific patterns of variation to those among species. Traits that exhibit similar patterns of variation in intraspecific and interspecific comparisons may represent adaptations to different larval habitats. Tadpoles of R. chiricahuensis found in streams have more contrasting melanic patterns on the tail, thicker dorsal fins, and somewhat larger tail muscles than those from ponds. Unexpected differences between tadpoles from two stream habitats might represent nonadaptive morphological variation. Alternatively, such differences may represent different morphological responses to similar selection pressures, to subtly different aquatic habitats (different selective regimes), or different developmental responses to different environmental cues. Parallels in variation for some morphological traits within and among tadpoles of leopard frog species support, but do not demonstrate, the contention that those morphological differences represent adaptations to larval habitats.
The Black-capped Petrel (also known regionally as Diablotin) is a gadfly petrel endemic to the Caribbean. Population estimates based on at-sea observations range from 2,000 to 4,000 individuals, with a fragmented breeding population estimated at 500 to 1,000 pairs. At sea, the expansive marine range of the species exposes it to many conservation threats including fisheries activity, offshore energy development, marine pollution including mercury bio-accumulation, and climate change. Such disturbances at sea have been under-studied although they are likely to impact the survival of the species.
Invasive species provide powerful in situ experimental systems for studying evolution in response to selective pressures in novel habitats. While research has shown that phenotypic evolution can occur rapidly in nature, few examples exist of genome‐wide adaptation on short ‘ecological’ timescales. Burmese pythons ( Python molurus bivittatus ) have become a successful and impactful invasive species in Florida over the last 30 years despite major freeze events that caused high python mortality. We sampled Florida Burmese pythons before and after a major freeze event in 2010 and found evidence for directional selection in genomic regions enriched for genes associated with thermosensation, behavior, and physiology. Several of these genes are linked to regenerative organ growth, an adaptive response that modulates organ size and function with feeding and fasting in pythons. Independent histological and functional genomic datasets provide additional layers of support for a contemporary shift in invasive Burmese python physiology. In the Florida population, a shift towards maintaining an active digestive system may be driven by the fitness benefits of maintaining higher metabolic rates and body temperature during freeze events. Our results suggest that a synergistic interaction between ecological and climatic selection pressures have driven adaptation in Florida Burmese pythons, demonstrating the often‐overlooked potential of rapid adaptation to influence the success of invasive species.
Exotic vegetation has become a major habitat component in many ecosystems around the world, sometimes dramatically changing the vegetation community structure and composition. In the southwestern United States, riparian ecosystems are undergoing major changes in part due to the establishment and spread of the exotic Tamarix (saltcedar, tamarisk). There are concerns about the suitability of Tamarix as habitat for birds. Although Tamarix habitats tend to support fewer species and individuals than native habitats, Arizona Breeding Bird Atlas data and Birds of North America accounts show that 49 species use Tamarix as breeding habitat. Importantly, the relative use of Tamarix and its quality as habitat vary substantially by geographic location and bird species. Few studies have examined how breeding in Tamarix actually affects bird survivorship and productivity; recent research on Southwestern Willow Flycatchers has found no negative effects from breeding in Tamarix habitats. Therefore, the ecological benefits and costs of Tamarix control are difficult to predict and are likely to be species specific and site specific. Given the likelihood that high-quality native riparian vegetation will not develop at all Tamarix control sites, restoration projects that remove Tamarix but do not assure replacement by high-quality native habitat have the potential to reduce the net riparian habitat value for some local or regional bird populations. Therefore, an assessment of potential negative impacts is important in deciding if exotic control should be conducted. In addition, measurable project objectives, appropriate control and restoration techniques, and robust monitoring are all critical to effective restoration planning and execution. ?? 2008 Society for Ecological Restoration International.
Translocation of mountain quail (Oreortyx pictus) to restore viable populations to their former range has become a common practice. Because differences in post-release vital rates between animals from multiple source populations has not been well studied, wildlife and land managers may arbitrarily choose the source population or base the source population on immediate availability when planning translocation projects. Similarly, an understanding of the optimal proportion of individuals from different age and sex classes for translocation would benefit translocation planning. During 2006 and 2007, we captured and translocated 125 mountain quail from 2 ecologically distinct areas: 38 from southern California and 87 from southwestern Oregon. We released mountain quail in the Bennett Hills of south-central Idaho. We radio-marked and monitored a subsample of 58 quail and used them for a 2-part survival analysis. Cumulative survival probability was 0.23 ± 0.05 (SE) at 150 days post-release. We first examined an a priori hypothesis (model) that survival varied between the 2 distinct source populations. We found that source population did not explain variation in survival. This result suggests that wildlife managers have flexibility in selecting source populations for mountain quail translocation efforts. In a post hoc examination, we pooled the quail across source populations and evaluated differences in survival probabilities between sex and age classes. The most parsimonious model indicated that adult male survival was substantially less than survival rates of other mountain quail age and sex classes (i.e., interaction between sex and age). This result suggests that translocation success could benefit by translocating yearling males rather than adult males, perhaps because adult male breeding behavior results in vulnerability to predators
Plovers of the genus Charadrius and their close allies are a diverse group, numbering 40 species, many with subspecies. They breed on all continents except Antarctica, in open, sparsely vegetated habitats of tundra and grasslands, and along shores of oceans, rivers, and inland lakes. Most are migratory, especially those breeding in arctic and temperate regions; others are partial migrants or sedentary. On migration, they are poorly studied and do not always correspond to the typical shorebird (i.e., sandpiper) pattern characterized by dense flocks concentrating at a few staging areas. Their foraging ecologies are rather uniform in that all species search visually for prey using a “run-stop-peck” maneuver. Breeding birds defend nesting and foraging territories while nonbreeding birds forage in loose flocks, which may stem from individuals minimizing interference with conspecifics while enhancing benefits of shared vigilance for predators. In breeding, they are conservative, laying two to four eggs at daily or longer intervals; replacement clutches are common, especially in species with prolonged breeding seasons. Precocial young hatch after comparatively long incubation that is correlated with development of neural centers associated with vision. Their mating systems are a mix of social monogamy and biparental care, with frequent sequential polygamy, especially in temperate and tropical taxa that breed for extended periods. Population sizes vary over several orders of magnitude; several species are highly endangered. Other species are abundant and widely distributed, although their populations may also be in decline. Regardless of their status, most plovers occupy habitats throughout the year that put them at conservation risk owing to anthropogenic factors including climate change, human disturbance, habitat loss, and predation. In this book, we draw from the expertise of an international group of researchers to outline the ecologies, behaviors, and challenges of plovers throughout the annual cycle so that decision makers can be most successful in their endeavors to conserve and manage populations.
Telemetry technology is ubiquitous for studying the behavior and demography of wildlife, including the use of traditional very high frequency (VHF) radio telemetry and more recent methods that record animal locations using global positioning systems (GPS). Satellite-based GPS telemetry allows researchers to collect high spatial–temporal resolution data remotely but may also come with additional costs. For example, recent studies from the southern Great Basin suggested GPS transmitters attached via backpacks may reduce the survival of greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) relative to VHF transmitters attached via collars that have been in use for decades. While some evidence suggests GPS backpacks reduce survival, no studies have examined the effects of GPS backpacks on breeding behavior and success. Therefore, we compared survival, breeding behavior, and nest success of sage-grouse hens marked with both VHF collars and GPS backpack transmitter over a 7-year period in central Idaho, USA. GPS backpacks reduced spring–summer survival of sage-grouse hens relative to hens with VHF collars, where daily mortality probability was 68%–82% higher from March 1 to August 1. Yet satellite GPS backpacks did not consistently affect nest success or the likelihood or timing of nest initiation relative to VHF collars. Daily nest survival varied annually and with timing of nest initiation and nest age, but marginal effects of transmitter type were statistically insignificant and interactions between transmitter type and study year produced no meaningful patterns. Our results corroborate recent studies for the effect of satellite GPS backpacks on sage-grouse survival, but also suggest that these transmitters do not appear to affect components of fecundity. Our results therefore add important context to recent debate surrounding the effects of GPS backpacks on sage-grouse, and the relative strengths and weaknesses of different transmitter types for understanding behavior and population dynamics.
Spatio-temporal movement patterns of aquatic organisms drive many ecological processes. However, dams block migrations and alter the hydrologic and thermal regimes influencing movement behaviour of freshwater fishes. In North America, many recovering southern Lake Sturgeon populations occur in rivers with hydroelectric dams, but few studies have examined the impact of hydrologic alteration on their seasonal movements. We conducted a 3-year telemetry study of 96 adult and subadult Lake Sturgeon to compare their migratory responses to temperature and hydrology in adjacent regulated and unregulated tributaries of the Missouri River. Many other populations of Lake Sturgeon use tributaries primarily for spring spawning; however, in our study, Lake Sturgeon used Missouri River tributaries during 78% of the year. Differences in river size, hydrologic and thermal regimes in the regulated Osage River may have contributed to the greater year-round residency, later initiation, more frequent directional changes and longer duration of spring migrations compared to the unregulated Gasconade River. Lake Sturgeon made spring upstream migrations at temperatures of 13–19°C and elevated discharges in both rivers. However, Osage River migrants responded less to changes in discharge or temperature during spring migrations, especially those that overwintered at upstream locations. Fall tributary migrations occurred in the Osage River at rising or high discharges but were uncommon in the Gasconade River. Our identification of the influences of abiotic variables on the timing, duration and extent of Lake Sturgeon seasonal migrations can help guide management of habitat and hydrology in regulated rivers to recover migratory fishes globally.