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USGS2003

Small-Scale Vertical Distribution of Bacterial Biomass and Diversity in Biological Soil Crusts from Arid Lands in the Colorado Plateau

We characterized, at millimeter resolution, bacterial biomass, diversity, and vertical stratification of biological soil crusts in arid lands from the Colorado Plateau. Microscopic counts, extractable DNA, and plate counts of viable aerobic copiotrophs (VAC) revealed that the top centimeter of crusted soils contained atypically large bacterial populations, tenfold larger than those in uncrusted, deeper soils. The plate counts were not always consistent with more direct estimates of microbial biomass. Bacterial populations peaked at the immediate subsurface (1-2 mm) in light-appearing, young crusts, and at the surface (0-1 mm) in well-developed, dark crusts, which corresponds to the location of cyanobacterial populations. Bacterial abundance decreased with depth below these horizons. Spatially resolved DGGE fingerprints of Bacterial 16S rRNA genes demonstrated the presence of highly diverse natural communities, but we could detect neither trends with depth in bacterial richness or diversity, nor a difference in diversity indices between crust types. Fingerprints, however, revealed the presence of marked stratification in the structure of the microbial communities, probably a result of vertical gradients in physicochemical parameters. Sequencing and phylogenetic analyses indicated that most of the naturally occurring bacteria are novel types, with low sequence similarity (83-93%) to those available in public databases. DGGE analyses of the VAC populations indicated communities of lower diversity, with most types having sequences more than 94% similar to those in public databases. Our study indicates that soil crusts represent small-scale mantles of fertility in arid ecosystems, harboring vertically structured, little-known bacterial populations that are not well represented by standard cultivation methods.

Microbial Ecology↗

USGS2016

Detecting failure of climate predictions

The practical consequences of climate change challenge society to formulate responses that are more suited to achieving long-term objectives, even if those responses have to be made in the face of uncertainty 1 , 2 . Such a decision-analytic focus uses the products of climate science as probabilistic predictions about the effects of management policies 3 . Here we present methods to detect when climate predictions are failing to capture the system dynamics. For a single model, we measure goodness of fit based on the empirical distribution function, and define failure when the distribution of observed values significantly diverges from the modelled distribution. For a set of models, the same statistic can be used to provide relative weights for the individual models, and we define failure when there is no linear weighting of the ensemble models that produces a satisfactory match to the observations. Early detection of failure of a set of predictions is important for improving model predictions and the decisions based on them. We show that these methods would have detected a range shift in northern pintail 20 years before it was actually discovered, and are increasingly giving more weight to those climate models that forecast a September ice-free Arctic by 2055.

Nature Climate Change↗

USGS2009

Groundwater-quality data in the Antelope Valley study unit, 2008: Results from the California GAMA Program

Groundwater quality in the approximately 1,600 square-mile Antelope Valley study unit (ANT) was investigated from January to April 2008 as part of the Priority Basin Project of the Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) Program. The GAMA Priority Basin Project was developed in response to the Groundwater Quality Monitoring Act of 2001, and is being conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the California State Water Resources Control Board (SWRCB). The study was designed to provide a spatially unbiased assessment of the quality of raw groundwater used for public water supplies within ANT, and to facilitate statistically consistent comparisons of groundwater quality throughout California. Samples were collected from 57 wells in Kern, Los Angeles, and San Bernardino Counties. Fifty-six of the wells were selected using a spatially distributed, randomized, grid-based method to provide statistical representation of the study area (grid wells), and one additional well was selected to aid in evaluation of specific water-quality issues (understanding well). The groundwater samples were analyzed for a large number of organic constituents (volatile organic compounds [VOCs], gasoline additives and degradates, pesticides and pesticide degradates, fumigants, and pharmaceutical compounds), constituents of special interest (perchlorate, N-nitrosodimethylamine [NDMA], and 1,2,3-trichloropropane [1,2,3-TCP]), naturally occurring inorganic constituents (nutrients, major and minor ions, and trace elements), and radioactive constituents (gross alpha and gross beta radioactivity, radium isotopes, and radon-222). Naturally occurring isotopes (strontium, tritium, and carbon-14, and stable isotopes of hydrogen and oxygen in water), and dissolved noble gases also were measured to help identify the sources and ages of the sampled groundwater. In total, 239 constituents and water-quality indicators (field parameters) were investigated. Quality-control samples (blanks, replicates, and samples for matrix spikes) were collected at 12 percent of the wells, and the results for these samples were used to evaluate the quality of the data for the groundwater samples. Field blanks rarely contained detectable concentrations of any constituent, suggesting that contamination was not a noticeable source of bias in the data for the groundwater samples. Differences between replicate samples generally were within acceptable ranges, indicating acceptably low variability. Matrix spike recoveries were within acceptable ranges for most compoundsThis study did not evaluate the quality of water delivered to consumers; after withdrawal from the ground, water typically is treated, disinfected, or blended with other waters to maintain water quality. Regulatory thresholds apply to water that is served to the consumer, not to raw groundwater. However, to provide some context for the results, concentrations of constituents measured in the raw groundwater were compared with regulatory and non-regulatory health-based thresholds established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) and California Department of Public Health (CDPH) and thresholds established for aesthetic concerns (secondary maximum contaminant levels, SMCL-CA) by CDPH. Comparisons between data collected for this study and drinking-water thresholds are for illustrative purposes only, and are not indicative of compliance or non-compliance with drinking water standards. Most constituents that were detected in groundwater samples were found at concentrations below drinking-water thresholds. Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) were detected in about one-half of the samples and pesticides detected in about one-third of the samples; all detections of these constituents were below health-based thresholds. Most detections of trace elements and nutrients in samples from ANT wells were below health-based thresholds. Exceptions include: one detection of nitrite plus nitrate as nitrogen (NO 2 +NO 3 ) above the USEPA maximum contaminant level (MCL-US: 10 mg/L), five detections of arsenic above the MCL-US (6 μg/L), one detection of boron above the CDPH notification level (NL-CA: 1,000 μg/L), and two detections of vanadium above the NL-CA (50 μg/L). Most detections of radioactive constituents were below health-based thresholds. Exceptions include two detections of gross alpha radioactivity (72-hour and 30-day counts) above the MCL-US (15 pCi/L). Also, radon-222 was detected above the proposed MCL-US (300 pCi/L) in 14 grid wells and the understanding well, but no wells had detections above the proposed alternative MCL-US (4,000 pCi/L). Most of the samples from ANT wells had concentrations of major elements, total dissolved solids (TDS), and trace elements below the non-enforceable thresholds set for aesthetic concerns. Three samples contained sulfate and four samples contained total dissolved solids at concentrations above the SMCL-CA thresholds (250 mg/L and 500 mg/L, respectively). Two of the total dissolved solids detections were above the upper SMCL-CA (1,000 mg/L). Samples from four wells had field pH values above the SMCL-US (>pH 8.5). Field-measured specific conductance values were above the SMCL-CA (900 μS/cm at 25°C) at eight wells with four of these measurements above the upper SMCL-CA threshold (1,600 μS/cm at 25°C).

California↗

USGS1995

Hydrologic data and description of a hydrologic monitoring plan for the Borax Lake area, Oregon

Borax Lake is located in southeastern Oregon, within the Alvord Valley Known Geothermal Resource Area. Borax Lake is a large hot spring; there are more than 50 smaller hot springs within about one-half mile to the north of the lake. Several geothermal exploration wells have been drilled near Borax Lake, and there is concern that development of the geothermal resources could affect the lake and nearby hot springs. A factor to consider in developing the resource is that the Borax Lake chub is an endangered species of fish that is found exclusively in Borax Lake. This study was designed to collect basic hydrologic data to develop a long-term monitoring plan. Baseline data, collected before geothermal production wells are used extensively, will provide an understanding of natural trends and will help identify change caused by development. Basic data collected during reconnaissance field visits to the area included spring temperatures, specific conductances, and discharge; field measurements in wells included water-level measurements and temperature, specific conductance, and discharge measurements in flowing wells. The study of the Borax Lake area included depth and temperature measurements in the vent area of the lake, point velocity measurements, underwater video photography, and an evaluation of methods to measure discharge from the lake. Water-quality samples were collected at Borax Lake, one hot spring, and one flowing well. Information from field visits was used to develop a monitoring plan. The plan would include monitoring Borax Lake by measuring discharge, stage, evaporation, temperature, and specific conductance; water-quality sampling and analysis; and monitoring shallow ground-water levels near Borax Lake using shallow piezometers. Minimally, one hot spring in North Borax Lake Spring Group 1 would be monitored for temperature and specific conductance and sampled for water-quality analysis. In addition, two flowing wells would be monitored for water levels, temperature, specific conductance, and discharge and sampled for water-quality analysis. The construction characteristics of these wells must be verified before long-term data collection begins. In the future, it may be helpful to monitor shallow and (or) deep observation wells drilled into the thermal aquifer to understand the possible effects of geothermal development on Borax Lake and nearby springs.

Oregon↗

USGS1975

Perspective on use of fresh water for cooling systems of thermoelectric powerplants in Florida

Cooling ponds, evaporative cooling towers, and once-through cooling systems of thermoelectric powerplants consume appreciable quantities of water. In Florida a cooling pond for a 1,000 megawatt nuclear power-plant operating at full load in sulluner consumes about 12.5 million gallons of water per day (0.55 cubic metres per second). A cooling tower for a plant of the same size consumes about 14.8 million gallons per day (0.65 cubic metres per second). Because the natural water loss to evaporation is greater for a water body than for a land area of comparable size in the same general environment, the total water consumption attributable to powerplant cooling may be greater for a cooling pond than for a cooling tower in instances where, for lack of a suitable natural water body, a cooling pond is created out of a dryland area. Additional water is required to maintain the chemical quality of the recycled cooling water, the quantity varying with the chemical quality of the makeup water and the concentration of chemical constituents that can be tolerated in the cooling water. Once-through cooling systems require 5 to 10 percent less water than cooling ponds, but the total withdrawal of water for this method is so large that it is practicable in Florida only along the coast where saline water can be used. In 1970 cooling systems of powerplants in Florida consumed about 106 million gallons per day (4.6 cubic metres per second), mostly saline water. Water consumption for power production in Florida could increase to 400 million gallons per day (17.5 cubic metres per second) by 1990 and to 800 million gallons per day (35.0 cubic metres per second) by 2000. Demand also will increase greatly for other uses that require Fresh water. The continued use of saline water for cooling systems of 3owerplants would help to conserve the fresh-water supply for these uses.

Florida↗

USGS2005

Relationships of field habitat measurements, visual habitat indices, and land cover to benthic macroinvertebrates in urbanized streams of the Santa Clara Valley, California

We evaluated several approaches for measuring natural and anthropogenic habitat characteristics to predict benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages over a range of urban intensity at 85 stream sites in the Santa Clara Valley, California. Land cover was summarized as percentage urban land cover and impervious area within upstream buffers and the upstream subwatersheds. Field measurements characterized water chemistry, channel slope, sediment, and riparian canopy. In . addition to applying the visual-based habitat assessment in U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's rapid bioassessment protocol, we developed a simplified urban habitat assessment index based on turbidity, fine sediment deposition, riparian condition, and channel modification. Natural and anthropogenic habitat variables covaried along longitudinal stream gradients and were highly correlated with elevation. At the scale of the entire watershed, benthic macroinvertebrate measures were equally correlated with variables expressing natural gradients and urbanization effects. When natural gradients were reduced by partitioning sites into ecoregion subsection groupings, habitat variables most highly correlated with macroinvertebrate measures differed between upland and valley floor site groups. Among the valley floor sites, channel slope and physical modification of channel and riparian habitats appeared more important than upstream land cover or water quality in determining macroinvertebrate richness and ordination scores. Among upland sites, effects of upstream reservoir releases on habitat quality appeared important. Rapid habitat evaluation methods appeared to be an effective method for describing habitat features important to benthic macroinvertebrates when adapted for the region and the disturbance of interest. ?? 2005 by the American Fisheries Society.

American Fisheries Society Symposium↗

USGS2011

Climate change, uncertainty, and natural resource management

Climate change and its associated uncertainties are of concern to natural resource managers. Although aspects of climate change may be novel (e.g., system change and nonstationarity), natural resource managers have long dealt with uncertainties and have developed corresponding approaches to decision-making. Adaptive resource management is an application of structured decision-making for recurrent decision problems with uncertainty, focusing on management objectives, and the reduction of uncertainty over time. We identified 4 types of uncertainty that characterize problems in natural resource management. We examined ways in which climate change is expected to exacerbate these uncertainties, as well as potential approaches to dealing with them. As a case study, we examined North American waterfowl harvest management and considered problems anticipated to result from climate change and potential solutions. Despite challenges expected to accompany the use of adaptive resource management to address problems associated with climate change, we conclude that adaptive resource management approaches will be the methods of choice for managers trying to deal with the uncertainties of climate change. ?? 2010 The Wildlife Society.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2022

Conflict of energies: Spatially modeling mule deer caloric expenditure in response to oil and gas development

Context Wildlife avoid human disturbances, including roads and development. Avoidance and displacement of wildlife into less suitable habitat due to human development can affect their energy expenditures and fitness. The heart rate and oxygen uptake of large mammals varies with both natural aspects of their habitat (terrain, climate, predators, etc.) and anthropogenic influence (noise, light, fragmentation, etc.). Although incorporating physiological analyses of energetics can inform the impacts of both development and conservation, management decisions rarely incorporate individuals’ energetic requirements when deciding on locations for potential development. Objectives We aimed to estimate the change in expected energy expenditure, numerically and spatially, for mule deer to traverse a landscape with varying levels of oil and gas development through time. Methods Using calculations of energy expenditure of mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ) by weight, in relation to physical terrain components, plus avoidance factors for anthropogenic disturbance, we developed a spatiotemporal model of the minimum energy required for mule deer to traverse a landscape. We compared expected energy expenditure across 12 study sites with increasing levels of oil and gas development and over time in our study area, on the northern Colorado Plateau of Utah. Results We found that energy expenditure can be increased by development, regardless of terrain, through increased travel distance associated with avoidance behavior. Maximum median energy expenditure to traverse a 1400 ha sample area rose from 1135 to 1935 kilocalories, a 70% increase in energy required of a mule deer. There was a significant relationship between energy expenditure and the size of oil and gas development (p < 0.001), its compactness (p < 0.05), and its ‘thinness’ (p < 0.001), but not terrain ruggedness (p = 0.25). Conclusion As the energy costs of movement correlate across multiple species of large mammals, our analysis of the energetic cost, for mule deer, associated with development can serve as a quantitative representative of the impacts of oil and gas development for multiple mammals—including threatened or endangered species. Our bioenergetic cost-distance model provides a means of delineating impediments to efficient movement and can be used to quantify the expected energetic costs of proposed future developments. As wildlife are exposed to increasing anthropogenic stressors which reduce fitness, it is important to make strategic siting decisions to reduce energetic costs imposed by human activities.

Utah↗

USGS2012

Seismic risk assessment and application in the central United States

Seismic risk is a somewhat subjective, but important, concept in earthquake engineering and other related decision-making. Another important concept that is closely related to seismic risk is seismic hazard. Although seismic hazard and seismic risk have often been used interchangeably, they are fundamentally different: seismic hazard describes the natural phenomenon or physical property of an earthquake, whereas seismic risk describes the probability of loss or damage that could be caused by a seismic hazard. The distinction between seismic hazard and seismic risk is of practical significance because measures for seismic hazard mitigation may differ from those for seismic risk reduction. Seismic risk assessment is a complicated process and starts with seismic hazard assessment. Although probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is the most widely used method for seismic hazard assessment, recent studies have found that PSHA is not scientifically valid. Use of PSHA will lead to (1) artifact estimates of seismic risk, (2) misleading use of the annual probability of exccedance (i.e., the probability of exceedance in one year) as a frequency (per year), and (3) numerical creation of extremely high ground motion. An alternative approach, which is similar to those used for flood and wind hazard assessments, has been proposed.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2009

Ground-water quality data in the Owens and Indian Wells Valleys study unit, 2006: Results from the California GAMA Program

Ground-water quality in the approximately 1,630 square-mile Owens and Indian Wells Valleys study unit (OWENS) was investigated in September-December 2006 as part of the Priority Basin Project of Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) Program. The GAMA Priority Basin Project was developed in response to the Groundwater Quality Monitoring Act of 2001 and is being conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in collaboration with the California State Water Resources Control Board (SWRCB). The Owens and Indian Wells Valleys study was designed to provide a spatially unbiased assessment of raw ground-water quality within OWENS study unit, as well as a statistically consistent basis for comparing water quality throughout California. Samples were collected from 74 wells in Inyo, Kern, Mono, and San Bernardino Counties. Fifty-three of the wells were selected using a spatially distributed, randomized grid-based method to provide statistical representation of the study area (grid wells), and 21 wells were selected to evaluate changes in water chemistry in areas of interest (understanding wells). The ground-water samples were analyzed for a large number of synthetic organic constituents [volatile organic compounds (VOCs), pesticides and pesticide degradates, pharmaceutical compounds, and potential wastewater- indicator compounds], constituents of special interest [perchlorate, N-nitrosodimethylamine (NDMA), and 1,2,3- trichloropropane (1,2,3-TCP)], naturally occurring inorganic constituents [nutrients, major and minor ions, and trace elements], radioactive constituents, and microbial indicators. Naturally occurring isotopes [tritium, and carbon-14, and stable isotopes of hydrogen and oxygen in water], and dissolved noble gases also were measured to help identify the source and age of the sampled ground water. This study evaluated the quality of raw ground water in the aquifer in the OWENS study unit and did not attempt to evaluate the quality of treated water delivered to consumers. Water supplied to consumers typically is treated after withdrawal from the ground, disinfected, and blended with other waters to maintain acceptable water quality. Regulatory thresholds apply to treated water that is served to the consumer, not to raw ground water. However, to provide some context for the results, concentrations of constituents measured in the raw ground water were compared with regulatory and non-regulatory health-based thresholds established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) and California Department of Public Health (CDPH) and non-regulatory thresholds established for aesthetic concerns (secondary maximum contamination levels, SMCL-CA) by CDPH. VOCs and pesticides were detected in samples from less than one-third of the grid wells; all detections were below health-based thresholds, and most were less than one-one hundredth of threshold values. All detections of perchlorate and nutrients in samples from OWENS were below health-based thresholds. Most detections of trace elements in ground-water samples from OWENS wells were below health-based thresholds. In samples from the 53 grid wells, three constituents were detected at concentrations above USEPA maximum contaminant levels: arsenic in 5 samples, uranium in 4 samples, and fluoride in 1 sample. Two constituents were detected at concentrations above CDPH notification levels (boron in 9 samples and vanadium in 1 sample), and two were above USEPA lifetime health advisory levels (molybdenum in 3 samples and strontium in 1 sample). Most of the samples from OWENS wells had concentrations of major elements, TDS, and trace elements below the non-enforceable standards set for aesthetic concerns. Samples from nine grid wells had concentrations of manganese, iron, or TDS above the SMCL-CAs.

California↗

USGS2010

Groundwater-quality data in the Colorado River study unit, 2007: Results from the California GAMA Program

Groundwater quality in the 188-square-mile Colorado River Study unit (COLOR) was investigated October through December 2007 as part of the Priority Basin Project of the California State Water Resources Control Board (SWRCB) Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) Program. The GAMA Priority Basin Project was developed in response to the Groundwater Quality Monitoring Act of 2001, and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is the technical project lead. The Colorado River study was designed to provide a spatially unbiased assessment of the quality of raw groundwater used for public water supplies within COLOR, and to facilitate statistically consistent comparisons of groundwater quality throughout California. Samples were collected from 28 wells in three study areas in San Bernardino, Riverside, and Imperial Counties. Twenty wells were selected using a spatially distributed, randomized grid-based method to provide statistical representation of the Study unit; these wells are termed ‘grid wells’. Eight additional wells were selected to evaluate specific water-quality issues in the study area; these wells are termed ‘understanding wells.’ The groundwater samples were analyzed for organic constituents (volatile organic compounds [VOC], gasoline oxygenates and degradates, pesticides and pesticide degradates, pharmaceutical compounds), constituents of special interest (perchlorate, 1,4-dioxane, and 1,2,3-trichlorpropane [1,2,3-TCP]), naturally occurring inorganic constituents (nutrients, major and minor ions, and trace elements), and radioactive constituents. Concentrations of naturally occurring isotopes (tritium, carbon-14, and stable isotopes of hydrogen and oxygen in water), and dissolved noble gases also were measured to help identify the sources and ages of the sampled groundwater. In total, approximately 220 constituents and water-quality indicators were investigated. Quality-control samples (blanks, replicates, and matrix spikes) were collected at approximately 30 percent of the wells, and the results were used to evaluate the quality of the data obtained from the groundwater samples. Field blanks rarely contained detectable concentrations of any constituent, suggesting that contamination was not a significant source of bias in the data. Differences between replicate samples were within acceptable ranges and matrix-spike recoveries were within acceptable ranges for most compounds. This study did not attempt to evaluate the quality of water delivered to consumers; after withdrawal from the ground, raw groundwater typically is treated, disinfected, or blended with other waters to maintain acceptable water quality. Regulatory thresholds apply to water that is served to the consumer, not to raw groundwater. However, to provide some context for the results, concentrations of constituents measured in the raw groundwater were compared to regulatory and nonregulatory health-based thresholds established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) and the California Department of Public Health (CDPH) and to thresholds established for aesthetic concerns by CDPH. Comparisons between data collected for this study and drinking-water thresholds are for illustrative purposes only and do not indicate compliance or noncompliance with those thresholds. The concentrations of most constituents detected in groundwater samples were below drinking-water thresholds. Volatile organic compounds (VOC) were detected in approximately 35 percent of grid well samples; all concentrations were below health-based thresholds. Pesticides and pesticide degradates were detected in about 20 percent of all samples; detections were below health-based thresholds. No concentrations of constituents of special interest or nutrients were detected above health-based thresholds. Most of the major and minor ion constituents sampled do not have health-based thresholds; the exception is chloride. Concentrations of chloride, sulfate, and total dissolved solids detected in some of the well samples were above the nonenforceable thresholds for aesthetic concerns. Concentrations of fluoride were detected in 5 samples (from 4 grid wells and 1 understanding well) above the maximum contaminant level for California (MCL-CA). Concentrations of most of the trace elements in samples from the COLOR study were below health-based thresholds; exceptions included arsenic above the MCL-US, boron above the notification level for California (NL-CA), iron and manganese above the secondary maximum contaminant level for California (SMCL-CA), and molybdenum and strontium above the lifetime health advisory level (HAL-US) threshold. Most detections of radioactive constituents were below health-based thresholds; exceptions were alpha, uranium, and radon radioactivity. Alpha radioactivity with 72 hour count detections occurred in four grid wells and one understanding well, and 30-day count detections in two grid wells above the MCL-US. Uranium was detected twice in grid wells above the MCL-US threshold. Also, radon-222 was detected at concentrations above the proposed MCL-US in 19 samples (14 grid and 5 understanding wells). No radon-222 was detected above the proposed MCL-US upper threshold.

California↗

USGS2015

Effects of water-resource development on Yellowstone River streamflow, 1928-2002

Major floods in 1996 and 1997 intensified public concern about the effects of human activities on the Yellowstone River in Montana. In 1999, the Yellowstone River Conservation District Council, whose members are primarily representatives from the conservation districts bordering the main stem of the Yellowstone River, was formed to promote wise use and conservation of the Yellowstone River’s natural resources. The Yellowstone River Conservation District Council is working with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to understand the cumulative hydrologic effects of water-resource development in the Yellowstone River Basin. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Yellowstone River Conservation District Council, and U.S. Geological Survey began cooperatively studying the Yellowstone River in 2010, publishing four reports describing streamflow information for selected sites in the Yellowstone River Basin, 1928–2002. Detailed information about the methods used, as well as summary streamflow statistics, are available in the four reports. The purpose of this fact sheet is to highlight findings from the published reports and describe the effects of water use and structures, primarily dams, on the Yellowstone River streamflow.

Montana↗

USGS2019

Drought forecasting for streams and groundwaters in northeastern United States

Background When rainfall is lower than normal over an extended period, streamflows decline, groundwater levels fall, and hydrological drought can occur. Droughts can reduce the water available for societal needs, such as public and private drinking-water supplies, farming, and industry, and for ecological health, such as maintenance of water quality and natural ecosystems. Recent droughts in the northeastern United States have highlighted the need for new scientific tools to forecast the probability of future droughts so water managers and the public can be better prepared for these events when they happen. Two recent U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) studies provide tools that can forecast the probabilities of summer droughts for streams and the probabilities of groundwater-level declines below specified targets or thresholds. These tools provide promising methods for identifying and anticipating probable streamflow and groundwater droughts specific to the northeastern United States. USGS Water Science Centers in the northeastern United States have acted together to use these methods for numerous streamflow gages and groundwater-level monitoring wells, and to make the results of the analyses available on the world wide web. This fact sheet describes the drought forecasting techniques used in a study to predict droughts for streamflow and groundwater in the northeastern United States.

Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Massachusetts, New H↗

USGS2004

Hydrologic, soil, and vegetation gradients in remnant and constructed riparian wetlands in west-central Missouri, 2001-04

A study was conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Missouri Department of Conservation at the Four Rivers Conservation Area (west-central Missouri), between January 2001 and March 2004, to examine the relations between environmental factors (hydrology, soils, elevation, and landform type) and the spatial distribution of vegetation in remnant and constructed riparian wetlands. Vegetation characterization included species composition of ground, understory, and overstory layers in selected landforms of a remnant bottomland hardwood ecosystem, monitoring survival and growth of reforestation plots in leveed and partially leveed constructed wetlands, and determining gradients in colonization of herbaceous vegetation in a constructed wetland. Similar environmental factors accounted for variation in the distribution of ground, understory, and overstory vegetation in the remnant bottomland forest plots. The primary measured determining factors in the distribution of vegetation in the ground layer were elevation, soil texture (clay and silt content), flooding inundation duration, and ponding duration, while the distribution of vegetation in the understory layer was described by elevation, soil texture (clay, silt, and sand content), total flooding and ponding inundation duration, and distance from the Marmaton or Little Osage River. The primary measured determining factors in the distribution of overstory vegetation in Unit 1 were elevation, soil texture (clay, silt, and sand content), total flooding and ponding inundation duration, ponding duration, and to some extent, flooding inundation duration. Overall, the composition and structure of the remnant bottomland forest is indicative of a healthy, relatively undisturbed flood plain forest. Dominant species have a distribution of individuals that shows regeneration of these species with significant recruitment in the smaller size classes. The bottomland forest is an area whose overall hydrology has not been significantly altered; however, portions of the area have suffered from hydrologic alteration by a drainage ditch that is resulting in the displacement of swamp and marsh species by colonizing shrub and tree species. This area likely will continue to develop into an immature flood plain forest under the current (2004) hydrologic regime. Reforestation plots in constructed wetlands consisted of sampling survival and growth of multiple tree species (Quercus palustris, pin oak; Carya illinoiensis, pecan) established under several production methods and planted at multiple elevations. Comparison of survival between tree species and production types showed no significant differences for all comparisons. Survival was high for both species and all production types, with the highest mortality seen in the mounded root production method (RPM®) Quercus palustris (pin oak, 6.9 percent), while direct seeded Quercus palustris at middle elevation and bare root Quercus palustris seedlings at the low elevation plots had 100 percent survival. Measures of growth (diameter and height) were assessed among species, production types, and elevation by analyzing relative growth. The greatest rate of tree diameter (72.3 percent) and height (65.3 percent) growth was observed for direct seeded Quercus palustris trees planted at a middle elevation site. Natural colonized vegetation data were collected at multiple elevations within an abandoned cropland area of a constructed wetland. The primary measured determining factors in the distribution of herbaceous vegetation in this area were elevation, ponding duration, and soil texture. Richness, evenness, and diversity were all significantly greater in the highest elevation plots as a result of more recent disturbance in this area. While flood frequency and duration define the delivery mechanism for inundation on the flood plain, it is the duration of ponding and amount of “topographic capture” of these floodwaters in fluvial landforms that largely determines the survivability and distribution of tree species in both remnant and constructed wetlands. Ponding, flooding, ground-water levels, and precipitation all accounted for saturated conditions in the upper soil profiles in the Four Rivers Conservation Area monitoring sites. Of these processes, ponding and flooding were the primary factors accounting for soil saturation conditions. The identification of landform features in undisturbed settings, therefore, can be an important aide in predicting the sustainable spatial distribution of various plant species in riparian revegetation projects.

Missouri↗

USGS2019

Capacity and area of Grand Lake O’ the Cherokees, northeastern Oklahoma, 2009

In February 2017, the Grand River Dam Authority filed to relicense the Pensacola Hydroelectric Project with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. The predominant feature of the Pensacola Hydroelectric Project is Pensacola Dam, which impounds Grand Lake O’ the Cherokees (locally called Grand Lake) in northeastern Oklahoma. Identification of information gaps and assessment of project effects on stakeholders are central aspects of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission relicensing process. Due to the natural changes to the reservoir over time, new capacity and area tables are needed periodically. The most recent complete capacity and area table was produced in 1940. Capacity and area tables identify the relations between the elevation of the water surface and the volume of water that can be impounded at each water surface elevation. This report (1) presents an updated capacity and area table for Grand Lake O’ the Cherokees for 2009, (2) describes the methods used to calculate the updated capacity and area values presented in the table, and (3) compares the updated capacity table to historical capacity tables produced from a survey in 1940 and from a hydrographic survey of the lake by the Oklahoma Water Resources Board in 2009. The new capacity values computed for Grand Lake O’ the Cherokees indicate that capacity at conservation pool elevation has decreased about 157,000 acre-feet or 10 percent since 1940 and capacity at top of dam elevation has decreased about 200,000 acre-feet or 8 percent since 1940. This difference in the capacities could be attributed to the advancements of technologies; the techniques used for surveying lakes have changed from the 1940 survey to the 2009 survey. Another possible reason for loss in capacity could be as time progresses, lakes like Grand Lake O’ the Cherokees slowly impound sediment carried by the rivers that feed into the lakes, thus diminishing the amount of water that the lake holds. The most recent survey used measured water depths and Global Position System collected electronically, but the methods used to collect data in 1940 are unknown. Due to the advancement of technology, the 2009 survey is likely more precise than the 1940 survey.

Oklahoma↗

USGS1999

Effectiveness of streambank-stabilization techniques along the Kenai River, Alaska

The Kenai River in southcentral Alaska is the State's most popular sport fishery and an economically important salmon river that generates as much as $70 million annually. Boatwake-induced streambank erosion and the associated damage to riparian and riverine habitat present a potential threat to this fishery. Bank-stabilization techniques commonly in use along the Kenai River were selected for evaluation of their effectiveness at attenuating boatwakes and retarding streambank erosion. Spruce trees cabled to the bank and biodegradable man-made logs (called 'bio-logs') pinned to the bank were tested because they are commonly used techniques along the river. These two techniques were compared for their ability to reduce wake heights that strike the bank and to reduce erosion of bank material, as well as for the amount and quality of habitat they provide for juvenile chinook salmon. Additionally, an engineered bank-stabilization project was evaluated because this method of bank protection is being encouraged by managers of the river. During a test that included 20 controlled boat passes, the spruce trees and the bio-log provided a similar reduction in boatwake height and bank erosion; however, the spruce trees provided a greater amount of protective habitat than the bio-log. The engineered bank-stabilization project eroded less during nine boat passes and provided more protective cover than the adjacent unprotected natural bank. Features of the bank-stabilization techniques, such as tree limbs and willow plantings that extended into the water from the bank, attenuated the boatwakes, which helped reduce erosion. These features also provided protective cover to juvenile salmon.

Alaska↗

USGS2019

Analog experiments of lava flow emplacement

Laboratory experiments that simulate lava flows have been in use by volcanologists for many years. The behavior of flows in the lab, where “eruption” parameters, material properties, and environmental settings are tightly controlled, provides insight into the influence of various factors on flow evolution. A second benefit of laboratory lava flows is to provide a set of observations with which numerical models of flow emplacement can be tested. Models of lava flow emplacement vary in mathematical approach, physical assumptions, and computational cost. Nonetheless, all models require thorough testing and evaluation, and laboratory experiments produce an excellent test for models. This paper provides a primer on modern analog laboratory lava flow experiments. It reviews scaling con- siderations and provides quantitative information meant to guide future experimentalists in designing their experiments to be relevant to natural processes. Traditional and novel laboratory techniques are described, including a discussion of current limitations. New insights from recent experiments highlight the impact of topographic conditions and highlight the importance of considering bed roughness, major obstacles, and slope breaks. The influence of episodic or non-uniform effusion rate is demonstrated through recent experi- mental works. Lastly, the paper discusses several open questions about lava flow emplacement and the ways in which future improvements in experimental methods, such as the ability to utilize three-phase suspensions and materials with complex rheologies and to image the interior of flows could help answer these.

Annals of Geophysics↗

USGS2001

Trail resource impacts and an examination of alternative assessment techniques

Trails are a primary recreation resource facility on which recreation activities are performed. They provide safe access to non-roaded areas, support recreational opportunities such as hiking, biking, and wildlife observation, and protect natural resources by concentrating visitor traffic on resistant treads. However, increasing recreational use, coupled with poorly designed and/or maintained trails, has led to a variety of resource impacts. Trail managers require objective information on trails and their conditions to monitor trends, direct trail maintenance efforts, and evaluate the need for visitor management and resource protection actions. This paper reviews trail impacts and different types of trail assessments, including inventory, maintenance, and condition assessment approaches. Two assessment methods, point sampling and problem assessment, are compared empirically from separate assessments of a 15-mile segment of the Appalachian Trail in Great Smoky Mountains National Park. Results indicate that point sampling and problem assessment methods yield distinctly different types of quantitative information. The point sampling method provides more accurate and precise measures of trail characteristics that are continuous or frequent (e.g., tread width or exposed soil). The problem assessment method is a preferred approach for monitoring trail characteristics that can be easily predefined or are infrequent (e.g., excessive width or secondary treads), particularly when information on the location of specific trail impact problems is needed. The advantages and limitations of these two assessment methods are examined in relation to various management and research information needs. The choice and utility of these assessment methods are also discussed.

Journal of Park and Recreation Administration↗