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At least 1,675 records · Page 93Linked to original sources

Global-scale patterns of forest fragmentation

We report an analysis of forest fragmentation based on 1-km resolution land-cover maps for the globe. Measurements in analysis windows from 81 km 2 (9 x 9 pixels, “small” scale) to 59,049 km 2 (243 x 243 pixels, “large” scale) were used to characterize the fragmentation around each forested pixel. We identified six categories of fragmentation (interior, perforated, edge, transitional, patch, and undetermined) from the amount of forest and its occurrence as adjacent forest pixels. Interior forest exists only at relatively small scales; at larger scales, forests are dominated by edge and patch conditions. At the smallest scale, there were significant differences in fragmentation among continents; within continents, there were significant differences among individual forest types. Tropical rain forest fragmentation was most severe in North America and least severe in Europe–Asia. Forest types with a high percentage of perforated conditions were mainly in North America (five types) and Europe–Asia (four types), in both temperate and subtropical regions. Transitional and patch conditions were most common in 11 forest types, of which only a few would be considered as “naturally patchy” (e.g., dry woodland). The five forest types with the highest percentage of interior conditions were in North America; in decreasing order, they were cool rain forest, coniferous, conifer boreal, cool mixed, and cool broadleaf.

Conservation Ecology↗

Connectivity among subpopulations of Louisiana black bears as estimated by a step selection function

Habitat fragmentation is a fundamental cause of population decline and increased risk of extinction for many wildlife species; animals with large home ranges and small population sizes are particularly sensitive. The Louisiana black bear ( Ursus americanus luteolus ) exists only in small, isolated subpopulations as a result of land clearing for agriculture, but the relative potential for inter-subpopulation movement by Louisiana black bears has not been quantified, nor have characteristics of effective travel routes between habitat fragments been identified. We placed and monitored global positioning system (GPS) radio collars on 8 female and 23 male bears located in 4 subpopulations in Louisiana, which included a reintroduced subpopulation located between 2 of the remnant subpopulations. We compared characteristics of sequential radiolocations of bears (i.e., steps) with steps that were possible but not chosen by the bears to develop step selection function models based on conditional logistic regression. The probability of a step being selected by a bear increased as the distance to natural land cover and agriculture at the end of the step decreased and as distance from roads at the end of a step increased. To characterize connectivity among subpopulations, we used the step selection models to create 4,000 hypothetical correlated random walks for each subpopulation representing potential dispersal events to estimate the proportion that intersected adjacent subpopulations (hereafter referred to as successful dispersals). Based on the models, movement paths for males intersected all adjacent subpopulations but paths for females intersected only the most proximate subpopulations. Cross-validation and genetic and independent observation data supported our findings. Our models also revealed that successful dispersals were facilitated by a reintroduced population located between 2 distant subpopulations. Successful dispersals for males were dependent on natural land cover in private ownership. The addition of hypothetical 1,000-m- or 3,000-m-wide corridors between the 4 study areas had minimal effects on connectivity among subpopulations. For females, our model suggested that habitat between subpopulations would probably have to be permanently occupied for demographic rescue to occur. Thus, the establishment of stepping-stone populations, such as the reintroduced population that we studied, may be a more effective conservation measure than long corridors without a population presence in between.

Louisiana↗

6&6: A transdisciplinary approach to art-science collaboration

Despite an historical connection between the arts and sciences, in the past century, the two disciplines have been greatly siloed. However, there is a renewed interest in collaboration across the arts and sciences to support conservation practice by understanding and communicating complex environmental, social, and cultural challenges in novel ways. 6&6 was created as a transdisciplinary art–science initiative to promote a deeper appreciation of the Sonoran Desert. Six artists and six scientists were paired to create work that explored conservation issues in the Sonoran Desert and the Gulf of California. In-depth interviews were conducted with the artists and scientists throughout the 4-year initiative to understand the impact of 6&6 on their personal and professional behaviors and outlook. The findings from this case study reveal the role that intensive, place-based, and transdisciplinary art–science programs can play in shaping narratives to better communicate the patterns and processes of nature and human–environment interactions.

Arizona, Baja California, Baja California Sur, Cal↗

The Maryland Coastal Plain Aquifer Information System: A GIS-based tool for assessing groundwater resources

Groundwater is the source of drinking water for ∼1.4 million people in the Coastal Plain Province of Maryland (USA). In addition, groundwater is essential for commercial, industrial, and agricultural uses. Approximately 0.757 × 109 L d –1 (200 million gallons/d) were withdrawn in 2010. As a result of decades of withdrawals from the coastal plain confined aquifers, groundwater levels have declined by as much as 70 m (230 ft) from estimated prepumping levels. Other issues posing challenges to long-term groundwater sustainability include degraded water quality from both man-made and natural sources, reduced stream base flow, land subsidence, and changing recharge patterns (drought) caused by climate change. In Maryland, groundwater supply is managed primarily by the Maryland Department of the Environment, which seeks to balance reasonable use of the resource with long-term sustainability. The chief goal of groundwater management in Maryland is to ensure safe and adequate supplies for all current and future users through the implementation of appropriate usage, planning, and conservation policies. To assist in that effort, the geographic information system (GIS)–based Maryland Coastal Plain Aquifer Information System was developed as a tool to help water managers access and visualize groundwater data for use in the evaluation of groundwater allocation and use permits. The system, contained within an ESRI ArcMap desktop environment, includes both interpreted and basic data for 16 aquifers and 14 confining units. Data map layers include aquifer and ­confining unit layer surfaces, aquifer extents, borehole information, hydraulic properties, time-series groundwater-level data, well records, and geophysical and lithologic logs. The aquifer and confining unit layer surfaces were generated specifically for the GIS system. The system also contains select groundwater-quality data and map layers that quantify groundwater and surface-water withdrawals. The aquifer information system can serve as a pre- and postprocessing environment for groundwater-flow models for use in water-supply planning, development, and management. The system also can be expanded to include features that evaluate constraints to groundwater development, such as insufficient available drawdown, degraded groundwater quality, insufficient aquifer yields, and well-field interference. Ultimately, the aquifer information system is intended to function as an interactive Web-based utility that provides a broad array of information related to groundwater resources in Maryland’s coastal plain to a wide-ranging audience, including well drillers, consultants, academia, and the general public.

Special Paper of the Geological Society of America↗

Potential hazards from flood in part of the Chalone Creek and Bear Valley drainage basins, Pinnacles National Monument, California

Areas of Chalone Creek and Bear Valley drainage basins in Pinnacles National Monument, California, are subject to frontal storms that can cause major flooding from November to April in areas designated for public use. To enhance visitor safety and to protect cultural and natural resources, the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the National Park Service studied flood-hazard potentials within the boundaries of the Pinnacles National Monument. This study area extends from about a quarter of a mile north of Chalone Creek Campground to the mouth of Bear Valley and from the east monument entrance to Chalone Creek. Historical data of precipitation and floodflow within the monument area are sparse to nonexistent, therefore, U.S. Soil Conservation Service unit-hydrograph procedures were used to determine the magnitude of a 100-year flood. Because of a lack of specific storm-rainfall data, a simulated storm was applied to the basins using a digital-computer model developed by the Soil Conservation Service. A graphical relation was used to define the regionally based maximum flood for Chalone Creek and Bear Valley. Water-surface elevations and inundation areas were determined using a conventional step-backwater program. Flood-zone boundaries were derived from the computed water-surface elevations. The 100-year flood plain for both streams would be inundated at all points by the regional maximum flood. Most of the buildings and proposed building sites in the monument area are above the elevation of the 100-year flood, except the proposed building sites near the horse corral and the east monument entrance. The 100-year flood may cause reverse flow through a 12-inch culvert embedded in the embankment of Old Pinnacles Campground Road in the center of Chalone Creek Campground. The likelihood of this occurring is dependant upon the amount of aggradation that occurs upstream; therefore, the campground area also is considered to be within the 100-year flood zone.

Open-File Report↗

Data sources and methods for digital mapping of eight valley-fill aquifer systems in upstate New York

Digital hydrogeologic maps were developed in eight study areas in upstate New York by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation. The digital maps define the hydrogeologic framework of the valley-fill aquifers and surrounding till-covered uplands in the vicinity of the villages of Ellenville and Wurtsboro and hamlets of Woodbourne and South Fallsburg in Sullivan and Ulster Counties, town of Greene in Chenango County, city of Cortland and town of Cincinnatus in Cortland County, city of Jamestown in Chautauqua County, city of Olean and village of Ellicottville in Cattaraugus County, and villages of Fishkill and Wappinger Falls in Dutchess County. The hydrogeologic framework provided the foundation for groundwater-flow models that were used in the delineation of areas contributing groundwater flow to production wells screened in four of the eight valley-fill aquifers considered in this study. The hydrogeologic framework for the other four study areas was developed for potential future use in groundwater contributing-area studies. Data used in the creation of all digital surfaces and thicknesses included published surficial geology; aquifer maps and hydrogeologic sections; light detection and ranging (lidar) datasets; the Soil Survey Geographic Database; and lithologic well logs from the National Water Information System, New York State Department of Environmental Conservation, New York State Department of Transportation, and Empire State Organized Geologic Information System databases. Digital maps of the surficial geology; thickness of the surficial sand and gravel aquifers; and tops of the confining lacustrine silt and clay units, confined sand and gravel aquifers, and bedrock surfaces were created by using ArcGIS (a geographic information system). All surfaces and thicknesses were generated by using one of the following ArcGIS interpolation tools: Topo to Raster, Natural Neighbors, Kriging, or Empirical Bayesian Kriging. The datasets developed in this study provide a greater understanding of the underlying hydrogeologic framework in glacial valley-fill aquifers and can be applied in the evaluation of groundwater-supply development and protection.

New York↗

Pathogens and diseases of freshwater mussels in the United States: Studies on bacterial transmission and depuration

Unionid mussels are recognized as important contributors to healthy aquatic ecosystems, as well as bioindicators of environmental perturbations. Because they are sedentary, filter feeding animals and require hosts (i.e., fishes) to transform embryonic glochidia, mussels are susceptible to direct adverse environmental parameters, and indirect parameters that restrict the timely presence of the host(s). Their numbers have declined in recent decades to a point that this fauna is regarded as one of the most imperiled in North America. The most significant threat to populations of native unionids in recent years has been the introduction and spread of zebra mussels Dreissena polymorpha. Many federal and state agencies, and private interests are now engaged in mussel conservation efforts, including collecting selected imperiled species from impacted rivers and lakes and propagating them at refuges for future population augmentations. One essential consideration with mussel propagation and their intensive culture at refugia is the prevention of pathogen introductions and control of diseases. Currently, there are few reports of etiological agents causing diseases among freshwater mussels; however, because of increased observations of mussel die-offs in conjunction with transfers of live animals between natural waters and refugia, disease problems can be anticipated to emerge. This review summarizes research to develop bacterial isolation techniques, study pathogen transmission between fish and mussels, identify causes of seasonal mussel die-offs, and develop non-destructive methods for pathogen detection. These efforts were done to develop disease preventative techniques for use by resource managers to avoid potential large-scale disease problems in restoration and population augmentation efforts among imperiled populations.

Conference Paper↗

Valuation of rangeland ecosystem services

Economic valuation lends itself well to the anthropocentric orientation of ecosystem services. An economic perspective on ecosystems portrays them as natural assets providing a flow of goods and services valuable to individuals and society collectively. A few examples include the purification of drinking water, reduced risk from flooding and other extreme events, pollination of agricultural crops, climate regulation, and recreation opportunities from plant and animal habitat maintenance, among many others. Once these goods and services are identified and quantified, they can be monetized to complete the valuation process. The monetization of ecosystem goods and services (in the form of dollars) provides a common metric that allows for cross-comparison of attributes and evaluation of differing ecological scenarios. Complicating the monetization process is the fact that most of these goods and services are public and non-market in nature; meaning they are non-rival and non-exclusive and are typically not sold in a traditional market setting where monetary values are revealed. Instead, one must employ non-market valuation techniques, with primary valuation methods typically being very time and resource consuming, intimidating to non-economists, and often impractical. For these reasons, benefit transfer methods have gained popularity. This methodology harnesses the primary collection results of existing studies to make inferences about the economic values of non-market goods and services at an alternative policy site (in place and/or in time). For instance, if a primary valuation study on oak reestablishment on rangelands in southern California yielded a value of $30 per-acre associated with water regulation, this result can be transferred, with some adjustments, to say something about the value of an acre of oaks on rangelands in northern portions of the state. The economic valuation of rangeland ecosystem services has many roles. Economic values may be used as input into analyzing the costs and benefits associated with policies being proposed, or possibly already implemented. For example, with monetized values acting as a common metric, one could compare the 'benefits' of converting a rangeland ecosystem for commercial development (perhaps estimated at the market value of the developed land) with the foregone ecosystem service values (in addition to any land income lost) resulting from that land conversion. Similarly, ecosystem service values can be used to determine the level of return on an investment. rhis is a primary objective for private land conservation organizations who typically have very limited resources. Ecosystem service valuation can also have a role in damage assessments from incidents that require compensation such as oil spills. Additionally, valuation can be very informative when investigating regulatory programs that trade ecological assets such as wetland mitigation programs. Typically these programs are based simply on an 'acre for acre' criterion, and do not take into consideration varying welfare values associated with that ecosystem. Lastly, and most fundamental, ecosystem service valuation serves as a recognition tool for people of all backgrounds. Identifying and valuing ecosystem goods and services on rangelands brings to light the value these natural assets have to human welfare that often remain hidden do to their public and non-market attributes. This type of recognition is vital to the preservation of rangeland ecosystems in the future and the many ecological benefits they provide.

Conference Paper↗

Ecosystem service co-benefits provided through wetland carbon management

What is the role of wetland carbon management in providing ecosystem services? Ecosystem services are the benefits that nature provides to people, and they are often categorized as: provisioning (e.g., food and water), regulating (e.g., climate mitigation and flood protection), cultural (e.g., cultural and recreational), and supporting (e.g., nutrient cycling) services ( www.millenniumassessment.org/ ). Ecosystem services are a function of the quantity and quality of the ecosystem. External factors such as land development, pollution, fragmentation, resource overuse, and climate change can negatively influence an ecosystem's capacity to provide ecosystem services; conversely, management actions to conserve and restore systems can increase ecosystem services (Pindilli, 2019). Wetland carbon management is a set of preservation, conservation, or restoration actions used to preserve ecosystem function that protects or enhances stored carbon or biologic carbon sequestration, with the intent to regulate climate (see Moomaw et al., 2018). By managing for wetland carbon resources, there is often a co-benefit of the preservation or enhancement of other ecosystem services; it may also increase ecosystem disservices (such as mosquito production). This chapter provides an overview of the types of ecosystem service co-benefits provided by wetland carbon management, with specific examples from the literature.

Book chapter↗

A modern earth narrative: What will be the fate of the biosphere?

The modern Earth Narrative is the scientific description of the natural and human history of the Earth, and it is based on two fundamental concepts: Deep (or Geologic) Time and Biological Evolution. Changes in the Earth's biosphere and geosphere are discussed from the perspective of natural variability and impacts of the rapid increase in the human population. The failure of humans to comprehend and understand the Earth Narrative, especially the place of humans in it, presages dire consequences for the Earth's biosphere. The actions humans take, individually and collectively, during the 21st century will likely determine the fate of many millions of species, including our own. It is argued that we must quickly establish an Earth System-based conservation ethic that has the objective of complete preservation of the Earth's biotic inheritance. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd.

Technology in Society↗

A global dataset of inland fisheries expert knowledge

Inland fisheries and their freshwater habitats face intensifying effects from multiple natural and anthropogenic pressures. Fish harvest and biodiversity data remain largely disparate and severely deficient in many areas, which makes assessing and managing inland fisheries difficult. Expert knowledge is increasingly used to improve and inform biological or vulnerability assessments, especially in data-poor areas. Integrating expert knowledge on the distribution, intensity, and relative influence of human activities can guide natural resource management strategies and institutional resource allocation and prioritization. This paper introduces a dataset summarizing the expert-perceived state of inland fisheries at the basin (fishery) level. An electronic survey distributed to professional networks (June-September 2020) captured expert perceptions (n = 536) of threats, successes, and adaptive capacity to fisheries across 93 hydrological basins, 79 countries, and all major freshwater habitat types. This dataset can be used to address research questions with conservation relevance, including: demographic influences on perceptions of threat, adaptive capacities for climate change, external factors driving multi-stressor interactions, and geospatial threat assessments.

Scientific Data↗

Forecasting dynamics of a recolonizing wolf population under different management strategies

Species recovery can be influenced by a wide variety of factors, such that predicting the spatiotemporal dynamics of recovering species can be exceedingly difficult. These predictions, however, are valuable for decision makers tasked with managing species and determining their legal status. We applied a spatially explicit projection model to estimate population growth and viability of gray wolves ( Canis lupus ) from 2021 to 2070 in the state of Washington, USA, where wolves have been naturally recolonizing since the establishment of the first resident pack in 2008. Using this model, we predicted the effects of 12 scenarios relating to management actions (e.g., lethal removals by the state agency, translocation, recreational harvest) and system uncertainties (e.g., immigration from out of state, disease) on the probability of meeting Washington's wolf recovery goals, the probability of extinction, and other metrics related to population status. Population recovery was defined under Washington's Wolf Conservation and Management Plan as four breeding pairs in each of three recovery regions and three additional breeding pairs anywhere in the state. The baseline and two translocation scenarios indicated a high (> 90%) probability of wolf recovery in Washington by 2070, but scenarios related to harvest mortality (removal of 5% of the population every 6 months), increased lethal removals (removal of 8.53% of the population across the state each year), and cessation of immigration from out of state resulted in probabilities of < 0.20 (0.01, 0.04, and 0.17, respectively) of meeting recovery goals by 2070. Only two scenarios of 12 (increased harvest and lethal removals scenarios) resulted in a geometric mean of population growth ≤ 1, indicating long-term population stability or growth for most scenarios. Our results suggest that wolves will continue to recolonize Washington and that recovery goals are likely to be met so long as harvest and lethal removals are not at unsustainable levels and adjacent populations support immigration into Washington.

Washington↗

USGS St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center--Research activities in the U.S. Virgin Islands

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center in Florida investigates earth-science processes related to coastal and marine environments as well as to societal implications of natural hazards, resource sustainability, and environmental change. The Center is conducting ongoing research in and around the U.S. Virgin Islands that is providing baseline information for resource management and for assessing the health of and environmental changes to vital ecosystems such as coral reefs. In particular, projects are improving the understanding of coral health, advancing the ability to forecast future changes in coral reef ecosystems, and acquiring topographic data for use in inventorying, monitoring, and conserving coastal and marine environments.

Virgin Islands↗

California State Waters Map Series — Offshore of Salt Point, California

In 2007, the California Ocean Protection Council initiated the California Seafloor Mapping Program (CSMP), designed to create a comprehensive seafloor map of high-resolution bathymetry, marine benthic habitats, and geology within the 3-nautical-mile limit of California&rsquo;s State Waters. The CSMP approach is to create highly detailed seafloor maps through collection, integration, interpretation, and visualization of swath sonar data, acoustic backscatter, seafloor video, seafloor photography, high-resolution seismic-reflection profiles, and bottom-sediment sampling data. The map products display seafloor morphology and character, identify potential marine benthic habitats, and illustrate both the surficial seafloor geology and shallow (to about 100 m) subsurface geology. The Offshore of Salt Point map area is located in northern California, about 110 km north of San Francisco and 50 km south of Point Arena. The map area includes three California Marine Protected Areas: the southern portion of the Stewarts Point State Marine Reserve, the Salt Point State Marine Conservation Area, and the Gerstle Cove State Marine Reserve. The coast and shoreline are rugged and scenic, characterized by rocky promontories, steep bluffs capped by bare to forested marine terraces, kelp-rich coves, and nearshore rocks and pinnacles. The largely undeveloped onshore part of the map area is used primarily for grazing and recreation. U.S. Highway 1 extends along the coast through the map area, passing through Salt Point State Park, Kruse Rhododendron State Natural Reserve, and Stillwater Cove Regional Park. Sandy beaches are uncommon, present only in relatively protected coves. The seafloor in the map area extends from the shoreline to water depths of about 90 to 100 m. The nearshore to inner shelf area (to water depths of about 50 to 60 m) typically dips seaward about 1.0&deg; to 1.5&deg; and is underlain by bedrock and sand-sized to coarser grained sediment. The midshelf, underlain predominantly by muddy sediments, slopes more gently (less than 0.5&deg;). Surficial and shallow sediments were deposited in the last about 21,000 years during the approximately 125-m sea-level rise that followed the last major lowstand associated with the Last Glacial Maximum, at which time the entire Offshore of Salt Point map area was emergent and the shoreline was about 20 km west of the present-day shoreline. Tectonic influences that impact the shelf morphology and geology in the map area are related to local faulting, folding, uplift, and subsidence. The onshore part of the map area is cut by the northwest-striking San Andreas Fault&mdash;the right-lateral transform boundary between the North American and Pacific tectonic plates with an estimated slip rate of about 17 to 25 mm/yr in this area. The region between Fort Ross and Point Arena, west of the San Andreas Fault, is the known as the &ldquo;Gualala Block&rdquo; on the basis of its distinctive geology. The Gualala Block consists of a thick, discontinuous Upper Cretaceous to Miocene stratigraphic section, however, only the submarine fan deposits of the Paleocene and Eocene German Rancho Formation are exposed along the coast in the Offshore of Salt Point map area. The German Rancho Formation also forms all of the rugged seafloor bedrock outcrops in the map area. The western boundary of the Gualala Block lies 3 to 5 km offshore, perhaps at the shore-parallel Gualala Fault. High-resolution seismic-reflection data reveal shallow folding and faulting in inferred upper Pleistocene strata along the Gualala Fault trend, suggesting this structure is now or has been recently active. The last ground rupture in the map area occurred during the devastating great 1906 California earthquake (M7.8, 4/18/1906), thought to have nucleated on the San Andreas Fault about 100 kilometers to the south offshore of San Francisco. Circulation over the continental shelf in the map area is dominated by the southward-flowing California Current, the eastern limb of the North Pacific Gyre. Associated upwelling brings cool, nutrient-rich waters to the surface, resulting in high biological productivity. The current flow generally is southeastward during the spring and summer; however, during the fall and winter, the otherwise persistent northwest winds are sometimes weak or absent, causing the California Current to move farther offshore and the Davidson Current, a weaker, northward-flowing countercurrent, to become active. Throughout the year, this part of the central California coast is exposed to four wave climate regimes: the north Pacific swell, the southern swell, northwest wind waves, and local wind waves. The north Pacific swell dominates in winter months, with wave heights at offshore buoys ranging from 2 to 10 m and wave periods ranging from 10 to 25 s. During summer months, the largest waves come from the southern swell, generated by storms in the south Pacific and offshore Central America. Characteristically, these swells have smaller wave heights (0.3 to 3 m) and similarly long periods (range 10 to 25 s). Northwest wind waves affect the coast throughout the year, while local wind waves are most common from October to April. These two wind-wave regimes typically have wave heights of 1 to 4 m and short periods (3 to 10 s). Potential marine benthic habitats in the Offshore of Salt Point map area include unconsolidated continental shelf sediments, mixed continental shelf substrate, and hard continental shelf substrate. Rocky-shelf outcrops and rubble are considered to be promising potential habitats for rockfish and lingcod, both of which are recreationally and commercially important species.

California↗

Vegetation and terrain mapping in Alaska using Landsat MSS and digital terrain data

During the past 5 years, the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Earth Resources Observation Systems (EROS) Data Center Field Office in Anchorage, Alaska has worked cooperatively with Federal and State resource management agencies to produce land-cover and terrain maps for 245 million acres of Alaska. The need for current land-cover information in Alaska comes principally from the mandates of the Alaska National Interest Lands Conservation Act (ANILCA), December 1980, which requires major land management agencies to prepare comprehensive management plans. The land-cover mapping projects integrate digital Landsat data, terrain data, aerial photographs, and field data. The resultant land-cover and terrain maps and associated data bases are used for resource assessment, management, and planning by many Alaskan agencies including the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, U.S. Forest Service, Bureau of Land Management, and Alaska Department of Natural Resources. Applications addressed through use of the digital land-cover and terrain data bases range from comprehensive refuge planning to multiphased sampling procedures designed to inventory vegetation statewide. The land-cover mapping programs in Alaska demonstrate the operational utility of digital Landsat data and have resulted in a new land-cover mapping program by the USGS National Mapping Division to compile 1:250,000-scale land-cover maps in Alaska using a common statewide land-cover map legend.

Alaska↗

Agricultural land use and water quality in the upper St. Joseph River basin, Michigan

Land use in the upper St. Joseph River basin of south-central Michigan is primarily agricultural. In the 144-square-mile area, the chemical and physical characteristics of water are determined by the climate and soils, as well as by land conservation practices. Municipal waste discharges affect water quality at some locations, as do the larger lakes and ponds. Data indicate that mean discharge from the basin is 135 cubic feet per second. About half this flow is contributed to the St. Joseph River by three major tributaries: Beebe Creek (36 cubic feet per second); Sand Creek (24 cubic feet per second); and Soap Creek (13 cubic feet per second). Runoff from 21 drainage areas delineated for the investigation ranged from 0.22 to 4.07 cubic feet per second per square mile; both the higher and lower values are largely the result of naturally occurring inter- and intrabasin transfers of water. Suspended-sediment concentrations are low throughout the basin, rarely exceeding 100 milligrams per liter. Mean concentrations at four daily sampling stations on the major tributaries and on the St. Joseph River ranged from 9.7 milligrams per liter to 38 milligrams per liter. The maximum sediment yield was 182 pounds per acre per year. Deposition of sediment in five of the 21 areas resulted in a net loss of sediment transported, and thus “negative” yields. Nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations do not vary greatly from site to site. Mean concentrations of total nitrogen at downstream sites on Beebe, Sand, and Soap Creeks, and on the St. Joseph River ranged from 1.5 to 1.8 milligrams per liter. About 90 percent of all nitrogen, and 66 percent of all phosphorus, is transported in solution. Land used principally for agriculture has a mean total nitrogen yield of 4.9 pounds per acre per year and a mean total phosphorus yield of 0.13 pounds per year. A comparison of total nitrogen and total phosphorus yields with type of agricultural use showed few relationships; nitrogen yield, however, seems to decrease as the percentage of land in row crop and small grain increases. A relation between amount of fertilizer applied to land and the amount in streams could not be demonstrated. Only about 6 percent of the total nitrogen and about 1 percent of the total phosphorus added to the land in animal wastes, in precipitation, and applied as fertilizer, is transported from the basin by the St. Joseph River at Clarendon. Estimates also suggest that almost three times as much nitrogen, and twice as much phosphorus, fall in precipitation on the basin as is transported from the basin by runoff. In general, land conservation practices of the past seem to have been effective in minimizing erosion and leaching of soils in the basin.

Michigan↗

Used-habitat calibration plots: A new procedure for validating species distribution, resource selection, and step-selection models

“Species distribution modeling” was recently ranked as one of the top five “research fronts” in ecology and the environmental sciences by ISI's Essential Science Indicators (Renner and Warton 2013), reflecting the importance of predicting how species distributions will respond to anthropogenic change. Unfortunately, species distribution models (SDMs) often perform poorly when applied to novel environments. Compounding on this problem is the shortage of methods for evaluating SDMs (hence, we may be getting our predictions wrong and not even know it). Traditional methods for validating SDMs quantify a model's ability to classify locations as used or unused. Instead, we propose to focus on how well SDMs can predict the characteristics of used locations. This subtle shift in viewpoint leads to a more natural and informative evaluation and validation of models across the entire spectrum of SDMs. Through a series of examples, we show how simple graphical methods can help with three fundamental challenges of habitat modeling: identifying missing covariates, non-linearity, and multicollinearity. Identifying habitat characteristics that are not well-predicted by the model can provide insights into variables affecting the distribution of species, suggest appropriate model modifications, and ultimately improve the reliability and generality of conservation and management recommendations.

Ecography↗

Demography of the Yellowstone grizzly bears

We undertook a demographic analysis of the Yellowstone grizzly bears ( Ursus arctos ) to identify critical environmental factors controlling grizzly bear vital rates, and thereby to help evaluate the effectiveness of past management and to identify future conservation issues. We concluded that, within the limits of uncertainty implied by the available data and our methods of data analysis, the size of the Yellowstone grizzly bear population changed little from 1975 to 1995. We found that grizzly bear mortality rates are about double in years when the whitebark pine crop fails than in mast years, and that the population probably declines when the crop fails and increases in mast years. Our model suggests that natural variation in whitebark pine crop size over the last two decades explains more of the perceived fluctuations in Yellowstone grizzly population size than do other variables. Our analysis used demographic data from 202 radio-telemetered bears followed between 1975 and 1992 and accounted for whitebark pine ( Pinus albicaulis ) crop failures during 1993–1995. We used a maximum likelihood method to estimate demographic parameters and used the Akaike Information Criteria to judge the significance of various independent variables. We identified no independent variables correlated with grizzly bear fecundity. In order of importance, we found that grizzly bear mortality rates are correlated with season, whitebark pine crop size (mast vs. nonmast year), sex, management-trapping status (never management-trapped vs. mangement-trapped once or more), and age. The mortality rate of bears that were management-trapped at least once was almost double that of bears that were never management-trapped, implying a source/sink (i.e., never management-trapped/management-trapped) structure. The rate at which bears move between the source and sink, estimated as the management-trapping rate ( h ), is critical to estimating the finite rate of increase, λ͞ . We quantified h by estimating the rate at which bears that have never been management-trapped are management-trapped for the first time. It differed across seasons, was higher in nonmast than mast years, and varied with age. We calculate that λ͞ = 1.00 from 1975 to 1983 (four mast and five nonmast years) and 1.02 from 1984 to 1995 (seven mast and five nonmast years). Overall, we find that λ͞ = 1.01 ± 0.04 (mean ± 1 se ) from 1975 to 1995. Our models suggest that future management should concentrate on the threats to whitebark pine, such as those posed by white pine blister rust, global warming, and fire suppression. As is currently widely recognized by Yellowstone land managers, our model also suggests that future management must compensate for the increased grizzly bear mortality that is likely to be caused by an increasing number of humans in Yellowstone.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗