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At least 1,675 records · Page 93Linked to original sources
USGS2020

Examining the mechanisms of species responses to climate change: Are there biological thresholds?

Climate-change-driven shifts in distribution and abundance have been documented in many species. However, in order to better predict species responses, managers are seeking to understand the mechanisms that are driving these changes, including any thresholds that might soon be crossed. Leveraging the research that has already been supported by the Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center and its partners, this project used the latest modeling techniques combined with robust field data to examine the impact of specific climate variables, land use change, and species interactions on the future distribution and abundance of species of conservation concern. Moreover, this project documented biological thresholds related to climate variability and change for critical species in the Northeastern and Midwestern U.S. Specifically, our objectives were to identify the primary drivers (climate change vs. urban growth) of species distribution changes in the Northeast; examine the nature of species landscape capability change over time to identify potential thresholds; determine how changing temperatures and snowpack characteristics will drive species interactions; analyze the sensitivity of tree and bird responses to the magnitude, variability, periodicity, and seasonality of temperature and precipitation under climate change in the eastern U.S.; and identify how discrete climate triggers such as extreme events will correlate with known biological thresholds. Major outcomes included 1) refining the understanding of the mechanisms that drive projected changes in the distribution of vulnerable populations; and 2) improving how these results are conveyed to stakeholders by identifying understandable responses in the form of thresholds.

Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Ke↗
USGS2022

Chapter 1: General conceptual model for climate change in the Upper San Francisco Estuary

This report is a collaboration by many state and federal agencies working in the Upper San Francisco Estuary to analyze the potential impacts of climate change to different ecosystems found here. Management stategies for ecological values in the face of climate change require reliable and focused information. In this technical report, our focus is on the Upper San Francisco Estuary (SFE), which contains the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta and Suisun Bay. This area is home to three interconnected ecosystems: open water, floodplain, and tidal marsh. For this geographical area, we have decades of in-depth monitoring information and scientific investigations that have been successfully used to address a number of management needs. In 2019, the Interagency Ecological Program established a diverse work team to improve our ability to anticipate and respond to climate change impacts. The charge to the group was to: • synthesize science relevant to climate change, • determine important knowledge gaps, and • identify ecosystem metrics for climate change. We focus our analyses on the likely impacts of climate change on interconnected aquatic habitats. We illustrate how changes in habitats are likely to affect diverse species. In this report we describe ecological trends attributable to climate change and likely future impacts. We address four principal questions: 1. How have the habitats and biotic communities changed due to climatic trends and events? 2. How are estuarine habitats, flora, and fauna likely to change as climate change trends continue? 3. What are key metrics to document ecosystem change as a result of climate change? 4. How should our monitoring change to improve information value? Our work builds on the similar work of the San Francisco Baylands Goals Project (Goals Project 2015), which addressed climate change impacts to wetlands downstream of the confluence of the Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers. We aim to contribute to an integrated baseline understanding of climate change impacts for the entire San Francisco Estuary.

California↗
USGS2026

Final project peport for “Mapping riparian vegetation response to climate change on the San Carlos Apache Reservation and Upper Gila River watershed to inform restoration priorities: 1935 to present – Phase 2: Focus on tamarisk vegetation”

Riparian ecosystems play a critical role in supporting wildlife habitats, maintaining water quality, and sustaining ecological resilience in arid landscapes. In the Upper Gila River level-4 Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC-4; Identification Number – 1504) watershed of Arizona and New Mexico, and across areas of the San Carlos Apache Tribe of the San Carlos Apache Reservation (hereafter, Tribe/Tribal – entity; or Reservation - place), riparian ecosystems have been substantially altered by the widespread expansion of tamarisk ( Tamarix spp.), an invasive and non-native riparian species. Tamarisk has high water use and increased flammability, making it a growing concern as droughts intensify across the southwestern United States (U.S.). Recent research indicates that tamarisk is increasingly stressed under prolonged drought conditions, which can elevate wildfire risk and further degrade riparian habitat. In response, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Western Geographic Science Center, in collaboration with the Tribe, developed remote sensing–based tools to map riparian vegetation composition and monitor vegetation condition over time. These tools enable accurate identification of tamarisk extent, detection of vegetation stress, and comparison with native species such as cottonwood and willow. This information directly supports restoration and management actions, including targeted tamarisk removal, protection of endangered species habitat, and prioritization of areas for native vegetation recovery. The tools also provide insight into how riparian vegetation responds to changing climate and hydrologic conditions, strengthening long-term planning for riparian forest management. Findings from this work demonstrate that riparian vegetation responses vary across river systems, indicating differences in plant composition and hydro-climatic conditions. Tamarisk on both the Gila and San Carlos Rivers generally exhibit greater declines in greenness in response to higher temperature as well as lower precipitation and river flow, while cottonwood ( Populus fremontii ) and willow (Salix spp.) are particularly sensitive to changes in discharge along the San Carlos River and respond more directly to both high and low flows, with more moderate responses to precipitation and temperature. By providing actionable, science-based information, this research supports climate adaptation planning, wildfire risk reduction, and improved riparian ecosystem health, with benefits that extend beyond the Reservation to regional water and wildlife conservation efforts.

Arizona, New Mexico↗
USGS2007

Strategic Plan for the North American Breeding Bird Survey: 2006-2010

Executive Summary The mission of the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) is to provide scientifically credible measures of the status and trends of North American bird populations at continental and regional scales to inform biologically sound conservation and management actions. Determining population trends, relative abundance, and distributions of North American avifauna is critical for identifying conservation priorities, determining appropriate conservation actions, and evaluating those actions. The BBS program, jointly coordinated by the U.S. Geological Survey and Environment Canada’s Canadian Wildlife Service, provides the U.S. and Canadian Federal governments, state and provincial agencies, other conservation practitioners, and the general public with science-based avian population trend estimates and other information for regional and national species’ population assessments. Despite the demonstrated value of the BBS for furthering avian conservation across North America, its importance is often underappreciated, and it is underfunded compared with many other government-supported programs that report on status of the environment. Today, BBS resources, adjusted for inflation, are below the amount allocated in the 1970s and are still only sufficient to support two biologists. Yet the number of routes, participants, data, and data requests has quadrupled. Data and information management and delivery requirements and security concerns, non-existent in 1966, impose further demands on BBS resources. In addition, the Mexican expansion of the BBS offers new hope for a truly continental approach to avian conservation, but also brings additional challenges. Meeting the goals of this plan will take cooperation among myriad stakeholders; yet, even with collaboration, most objectives of this plan will be unattainable if BBS program support is not increased. The BBS developed this strategic plan to help set priorities and identify resources required for the program to continue to meet the evolving needs of the conservation community for information on bird population change. By setting clear goals, strategies, and measures of success, this plan provides a cohesive framework and vision for maintenance and development of the BBS. The plan identifies two major goals for the BBS, with a number of strategies and objectives to achieve these goals. Over the next 5 years, progress made in addressing each long-term goal and its associated 5-year strategies and objectives will gage the plan’s success. Specific actions, projected outcomes, and measures of success related to accomplishing these are outlined in Table 1, with a timeline in Table 2. The two main goals for the program, with a summary of the strategies to achieve them, are: Goal 1: Collect scientifically credible measures of the status and trends of North American bird populations at continental and regional scales. The North American Breeding Bird Survey will continue to support North American natural resource conservation through the collection of scientifically credible measures of the status and trends of continental bird populations. While doing this, the BBS will work to improve the science behind the program to better meet its mission and the changing needs of the avian conservation community. In partnership with collaborators, the BBS will address detection probability bias and habitat bias, improve analytical methods, and more fully assess and account for observer quality. Moreover, the BBS will improve the quality and breadth of avian population data through strategic increases in route density and the establishment of a Mexican BBS program. Goal 2: Ensure BBS data and analytical results are widely available and easily accessible for use by the avian conservation and management communities. At the heart of the BBS lies a four-million-record database containing more than 40 years of data on more than 600 bird species. These data are of no value if not well maintained, appropriately analyzed, and widely and easily accessible. The USGS has greatly improved data management and accessibility in recent years. Trend estimates were first made available via the Internet in the mid-1990s, followed closely by the raw data with baseline metadata and standard operating procedures. Nevertheless, numerous enhancements to data management and the usability of BBS results will greatly improve the ability of the BBS to serve avian conservation goals. The BBS needs to ensure that BBS data and results presented on the web site use the best data-management practices and statistical methods, with adequate documentation for users to understand them and any differences between different trend estimates. Moreover, the BBS needs to increase communication with BBS partners and stakeholders to ensure that it continues to meet the avian population status and trends needs of the conservation community and to encourage the development of new products. Working with collaborators, the BBS will develop tools for integrating environmental parameters like habitat change into the analyses, and for integrating BBS data with other avian survey results. In addition, the BBS will continue to improve data and database management through the incorporation of additional data and data fields, such as georeferenced stop locations and more complete metadata for the raw data and results, thus enhancing the uses that can be made of the data.

Circular↗
USGS2012

Science summary in support of Manatee Protection Area (MPA) design in Puerto Rico

The Antillean manatee (Trichechus manatus manatus), a subspecies of the West Indian manatee, is listed as endangered by the US Department of Interior. In accordance with its listing, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s Caribbean Field Office (USFWS) is mandated to create one or more Manatee Protection Areas (MPAs) for Puerto Rico. Designation of these areas must comply with the legal definition of an MPA’s purpose: to prevent or reduce take of manatees (CFR 50: 44 FR 60964, Oct. 22, 1979). To meet this goal, we pursued two objectives: 1) identify areas which include the specific ecological attributes necessary to support manatee populations, and 2) identify areas where take can be reduced through approved MPA regulatory frameworks. We achieved these objectives through literature review, expert elicitation, and geospatial modeling. This report delivers to USFWS a set of nine potential MPA regions. These regions represent the spatial realization of experts’ hypotheses regarding manatee requirements and threats, and the potential to implement MPA strategies (e.g. watercraft access, speed regulations, signage and boater education). The nine regions are compared based on a number of factors, including their potential to reduce take, quality of the habitat encompassed, and total area. These maps and statistics serve as suitable starting points to select one or more MPA sites, but we recommend that the mapped attributes and threats (i.e., boating activity) of MPAs be ground-truthed to visually confirm the local presence of resources, threats, and manatees before any area is selected. Once established, the effectiveness of MPAs can be monitored and updated through processes of adaptive monitoring and management. Aerial surveys, radio tracking studies, and public surveys are all valuable tools to assess the success of an MPA. Establishing MPAs is a management action that, integrated within the species Recovery Plan, should enhance the conservation of manatees.

Cooperator Science Series↗
USGS2015

Trust Species and Habitat Branch: using the innovative approaches of today to conserve biodiversity for tomorrow

Some of the biggest challenges facing wildlife today are changes to their environment from both natural and anthropogenic causes. Natural resource managers, planners, policy makers, industry and private landowners must make informed decisions and policies regarding management, conservation, and restoration of species, habitats, and ecosystem function in response to these changes. Specific needs include (1) a better understanding of population status and trends; (2) understanding of species’ habitat needs and roles in supporting ecosystem functions; (3) the ability to assess species’ responses to environmental changes and predict future responses; and (4) the development of innovative techniques and tools to better understand, minimize or prevent any unintended consequences of environmental change. The Trust Species and Habitats Branch of the Fort Collins Science Center includes a diverse group of scientists encompassing both traditional and specialized expertise in wildlife biology, ecosystem ecology, quantitative ecology, disease ecology, molecular genetics, and stable isotope geochemistry. Using our expertise and collaborating with others around the world, our goal is to provide the information, tools, and technologies that our partners need to support conservation, management, and restoration of terrestrial vertebrate populations, habitats, and ecosystem function in a changing world.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2012

How well do the rosgen classification and associated "natural channel design" methods integrate and quantify fluvial processes and channel response?

Over the past 10 years the Rosgen classification system and its associated methods of "natural channel design" have become synonymous (to many without prior knowledge of the field) with the term "stream restoration" and the science of fluvial geomorphology. Since the mid 1990s, this classification approach has become widely, and perhaps dominantly adopted by governmental agencies, particularly those funding restoration projects. For example, in a request for proposals for the restoration of Trout Creek in Montana, the Natural Resources Conservation Service required "experience in the use and application of a stream classification system and its implementation." Similarly, classification systems have been used in evaluation guides for riparian areas and U.S. Forest Service management plans. Most notably, many highly trained geomorphologists and hydraulic engineers are often held suspect, or even thought incorrect, if their approach does not include reference to or application of a classification system. This, combined with the para-professional training provided by some involved in "natural channel design" empower individuals and groups with limited backgrounds in stream and watershed sciences to engineer wholesale re-patterning of stream reaches using 50-year old technology that was never intended for engineering design. At Level I, the Rosgen classification system consists of eight or nine major stream types, based on hydraulic-geometry relations and four other measures of channel shape to distinguish the dimensions of alluvial stream channels as a function of the bankfull stage. Six classes of the particle size of the boundary sediments are used to further sub-divide each of the major stream types, resulting in 48 or 54 stream types. Aside from the difficulty in identifying bankfull stage, particularly in incising channels, and the issue of sampling from two distinct populations (beds and banks) to classify the boundary sediments, the classification provides a consistent and reproducible means for practitioners to describe channel morphology although difficulties have been encountered in lower-gradient stream systems. Use of the scheme to communicate between users or as a conceptual model, however, has not justified its use for engineering design or for predicting river behavior; its use for designing mitigation projects, therefore, seems beyond its technical scope. Copyright ASCE 2005.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2013

Tracking and forecasting the Nation’s water quality - Priorities and strategies for 2013-2023

Water-quality issues facing the Nation are growing in number and complexity, and solutions are becoming more challenging and costly. Key factors that affect the quality of our drinking water supplies and ecosystem health include contaminants of human and natural origin in streams and groundwater; excess nutrients and sediment; alteration of natural streamflow; eutrophication of lakes, reservoirs, and coastal estuaries; and changes in surface and groundwater quality associated with changes in climate, land and water use, and management practices. Tracking and forecasting the Nation's water quality in the face of these and other pressing water-quality issues are important goals for 2013-2023, the third decade of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) program. In consultation with stakeholders and the National Research Council, a new strategic Science Plan has been developed that describes a strategy for building upon and enhancing assessment of the Nation's freshwater quality and aquatic ecosystems. The plan continues strategies that have been central to the NAWQA program's long-term success, but it also makes adjustments to the monitoring and modeling approaches NAWQA will use to address critical data and science information needs identified by stakeholders. This fact sheet describes surface-water and groundwater monitoring and modeling activities that will start in fiscal year 2013. It also provides examples of the types of data and information products planned for the next decade, including (1) restored monitoring for reliable and timely status and trend assessments, (2) maps and models that show the distribution of selected contaminants (such as atrazine, nitrate, and arsenic) in streams and aquifers, and (3) Web-based modeling tools that allow managers to evaluate how water quality may change in response to different scenarios of population growth, climate change, or land-use management.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2015

Geographically isolated wetlands: Rethinking a misnomer

We explore the category “geographically isolated wetlands” (GIWs; i.e., wetlands completely surrounded by uplands at the local scale) as used in the wetland sciences. As currently used, the GIW category (1) hampers scientific efforts by obscuring important hydrological and ecological differences among multiple wetland functional types, (2) aggregates wetlands in a manner not reflective of regulatory and management information needs, (3) implies wetlands so described are in some way “isolated,” an often incorrect implication, (4) is inconsistent with more broadly used and accepted concepts of “geographic isolation,” and (5) has injected unnecessary confusion into scientific investigations and discussions. Instead, we suggest other wetland classification systems offer more informative alternatives. For example, hydrogeomorphic (HGM) classes based on well-established scientific definitions account for wetland functional diversity thereby facilitating explorations into questions of connectivity without an a priori designation of “isolation.” Additionally, an HGM-type approach could be used in combination with terms reflective of current regulatory or policymaking needs. For those rare cases in which the condition of being surrounded by uplands is the relevant distinguishing characteristic, use of terminology that does not unnecessarily imply isolation (e.g., “upland embedded wetlands”) would help alleviate much confusion caused by the “geographically isolated wetlands” misnomer.

Wetlands↗
USGS2011

Interagency partnering for weed prevention-- Progress on development of a National Early Detection and Rapid Response System for Invasive Plants in the United States

Over the past 50 years, experience has shown that interagency groups provide an effective forum for addressing various invasive species issues and challenges on multiple land units. However, more importantly, they can also provide a coordinated framework for early detection, reporting, identification and vouchering, rapid assessment, and rapid response to new and emerging invasive plants in the United States. Interagency collaboration maximizes the use of available expertise, resources, and authority for promoting early detection and rapid response (EDRR) as the preferred management option for addressing new and emerging invasive plants. Currently, an interagency effort is underway to develop a National EDRR System for Invasive Plants in the United States. The proposed system will include structural and informational elements. Structural elements of the system include a network of interagency partner groups to facilitate early detection and rapid response to new invasive plants, including the Federal Interagency Committee for the Management of Noxious and Exotic Weeds (FICMNEW), State Invasive Species Councils, State Early Detection and Rapid Response Coordinating Committees, State Volunteer Detection and Reporting Networks, Invasive Plant Task Forces, and Cooperative Weed Management Areas. Informational elements and products being developed include Regional Invasive Plant Atlases, and EDRR Guidelines for EDRR Volunteer Network Training, Rapid Assessment and Rapid Response, and Criteria for Selection of EDRR Species. System science and technical support elements which are provided by cooperating state and federal scientists, include EDRR guidelines, training curriculum for EDRR volunteers and agency field personnel, plant identification and vouchering, rapid assessments, as well as predictive modeling and ecological range studies for invasive plant species.

Book chapter↗
USGS2005

Increased salinization of fresh water in the Northeastern United States

Chloride concentrations are increasing at a rate that threatens the availability of fresh water in the northeastern United States. Increases in roadways and deicer use are now salinizing fresh waters, degrading habitat for aquatic organisms, and impacting large supplies of drinking water for humans throughout the region. We observed chloride concentrations of up to 25% of the concentration of seawater in streams of Maryland, New York, and New Hampshire during winters, and chloride concentrations remaining up to 100 times greater than unimpacted forest streams during summers. Mean annual chloride concentration increased as a function of impervious surface and exceeded tolerance for freshwater life in suburban and urban watersheds. Our analysis shows that if salinity were to continue to increase at its present rate due to changes in impervious surface coverage and current management practices, many surface waters in the northeastern United States would not be potable for human consumption and would become toxic to freshwater life within the next century. ?? 2005 by The National Academy of Sciences of the USA.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗
USGS2001

Acidic deposition in the northeastern United States: Sources and inputs, ecosystem effects, and management strategies: The effects of acidic deposition in the northeastern United States include the acidification of soil and water, which stresses terrestrial and aquatic biota

Acidic deposition is the transfer of strong acids and acid-forming substances from the atmosphere to the surface of the Earth. The composition of acidic deposition includes ions, gases, and particles derived from the following: gaseous emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ), nitrogen oxides (NO x ), ammonia (NH 3 ), and particulate emissions of acidifying and neutralizing compounds. Over the past quarter century of study, acidic deposition has emerged as a critical environmental stress that affects forested landscapes and aquatic ecosystems in North America, Europe, and Asia. This complex problem is an example of a new class of environmental issues that are multiregional in scale and are not amenable to simple resolution by policymakers. Acidic deposition can originate from transboundary air pollution and can affect large geographic areas. It is highly variable across space and time, links air pollution to diverse terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, and alters the interactions of many elements (e.g., sulfur [S], nitrogen [N], hydrogen ion [H + ], calcium [Ca 2+ ], magnesium [Mg 2+ ], and aluminum [Al]). It also contributes directly and indirectly to biological stress and to the degradation of ecosystems. Despite the complexity of the effects of acidic deposition, North American and European management actions directed toward the recovery of damaged natural resources have resulted in recent decreases in both emissions and deposition of acidic S compounds. Accordingly, acidic deposition presents an instructive case study for coordinating science and policy efforts aimed at resolving large-scale environmental problems.

northeastern United States↗
USGS2005

Time trends (1983-1999) for organochlorines and polybrominated diphenyl ethers in rainbow smelt ( Osmerus mordax ) from Lakes Michigan, Huron and Superior, USA

The U.S. Geological Service Great Lakes Science Center has archived rainbow smelt ( Osmerus mordax ) collected from the early 1980s to the present. These fish were collected to provide time- and site-dependent contaminant residue data needed by researchers and managers to fill critical data gaps regarding trends and behavior of persistent organic contaminants in the Great Lakes ecosystem. In the present study, data are presented for concentrations of several organochlorine (OC) contaminants in the archived smelt, including DDT, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), toxaphene, and chlordanes in Lakes Michigan and Huron (MI, USA) and in Lake Superior (MN, USA). The trends for all the OCs were declining as a first-order decay over the sampled time series (1983/1985–1993/1999) with the exception of toxaphene in Lake Superior and PCBs at the Charlevoix/Little Traverse Bay site in Lake Michigan. Concentration of the emerging contaminant, polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), also was traced from its apparent entry into this ecosystem in approximately 1980 until 1999. Time trends for the PBDEs were increasing exponentially at all sites, with concentration-doubling times varying from 1.58 to 2.94 years.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry↗
USGS2012

Bathymetry and acoustic backscatter-outer mainland shelf, eastern Santa Barbara Channel, California

In 2010 and 2011, scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center (PCMSC), acquired bathymetry and acoustic-backscatter data from the outer shelf region of the eastern Santa Barbara Channel, California. These surveys were conducted in cooperation with the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM). BOEM is interested in maps of hard-bottom substrates, particularly natural outcrops that support reef communities in areas near oil and gas extraction activity. The surveys were conducted using the USGS R/V Parke Snavely, outfitted with an interferometric sidescan sonar for swath mapping and real-time kinematic navigation equipment. This report provides the bathymetry and backscatter data acquired during these surveys in several formats, a summary of the mapping mission, maps of bathymetry and backscatter, and Federal Geographic Data Committee (FGDC) metadata.

California↗
USGS2023

User engagement to improve coastal data access and delivery

Executive Summary A priority of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program focus on coastal change hazards is to provide accessible and actionable science that meets user needs. To understand these needs, 10 virtual Coastal Data Delivery Listening Sessions were completed with 5 coastal data user types that coastal change hazards data are intended to serve: resource managers, consultants, local planners, State planners, and non-USGS researchers. During these listening sessions, participants revealed challenges to coastal data use including being overwhelmed by too many webtools, having a lack of capacity to search for and understand new information, facing difficulties finding data, and not understanding how to apply data. The specific coastal data and information needs described by participants are also detailed in the report and describe data gaps, a need for simpler tools, data needs that differ across spatial and temporal scales, and more outreach on coastal topics and climate change. Participants also suggested leveraging data across study sites and regions to help improve capacity issues and called for more communication and collaboration among and within Federal agencies. The synthesized information from the Coastal Data Delivery Listening Sessions provided in this report can help the USGS and those working on coastal challenges better understand barriers to coastal information use and the exact data requirements of different coastal data users.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS1996

National Biological Service Research Supports Watershed Planning

The National Biological Service's Leetown Science Center is investigating how human impacts on watershed, riparian, and in-stream habitats affect fish communities. The research will provide the basis for a Ridge and Valley model that will allow resource managers to accurately predict and effectively mitigate human impacts on water quality. The study takes place in the Opequon Creek drainage basin of West Virginia. A fourth-order tributary of the Potomac, the basin falls within the Ridge and Valley. The study will identify biological components sensitive to land use patterns and the condition of the riparian zone; the effect of stream size, location, and other characteristics on fish communities; the extent to which remote sensing can reliable measure the riparian zone; and the relationship between the rate of landscape change and the structure of fish communities.

West Virginia↗
USGS2018

Science for a risky world—A U.S. Geological Survey plan for risk research and applications

Executive Summary Natural hazards—including earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, landslides, hurricanes, droughts, floods, wildfires, geomagnetic storms, and pandemics—can wreak havoc on human communities, the economy, and natural resources for years following an initial event. Hazards can claim lives and cause billions of dollars in damage to homes and infrastructure as well as lost or compromised economic activity and threats to national security. They also can have adverse environmental, social, economic, and health effects that extend well beyond the immediate area, sometimes with global implications. Changes in population growth, climate, and urbanization may exacerbate hazard impacts. Because of the potential severity of a single hazard event, reducing risk—the potential loss of societally important assets caused by these hazards—is a high priority for everyone, including policy makers, community members, emergency managers, resource managers, utility operators, business owners, and planners. These stakeholders demand usable, user-centric information to support decisions for planning a resilient future and for responding to and recovering from unanticipated events in more adaptable and cost-effective ways. Meeting this demand requires maximizing the use of environmental observations; hazards science; and research on communications, social stressors, and human behavior to deliver risk information in forms that are accessible by decision makers and the public alike. To achieve this, scientists and stakeholders must collaborate to match community needs with actionable insights, research, products, and tools, using advances in technology to improve information discovery and delivery.

Circular↗
USGS2025

Decision-support modeling and research priorities for establishing baseline conditions for outstandingly remarkable values, Obed Wild and Scenic River, Tennessee

The Obed River is the last undammed river in Tennessee. The Obed Wild and Scenic River is managed by the National Park Service and covers a protected area of the Obed River headwaters (including four contributing tributaries). The Obed Wild and Scenic River supports a unique ecosystem with eight federally listed species. The National Park Service is responsible for preserving the baseline free-flowing condition of the river and associated outstandingly remarkable values (ORVs). Previous studies have been mostly project-based with differing methods, thus complicating efforts to quantify long-term changes in environmental conditions. This report presents a science plan summarizing (1) ORV conditions, (2) recent results of a decision-support hydrologic model for OBRI, and (3) possible future research priorities. The decision-support model was created to model streamflow conditions and changes in the ORVs since park establishment in 1976 and during three additional time periods. Established baseline conditions could help with management of ORVs not dependent on streamflow.

Tennessee↗