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At least 1,675 records · Page 93Linked to original sources
USGS2024

Planned geological investigations of the Europa Clipper mission

Geological investigations planned for the Europa Clipper mission will examine the formation, evolution, and expression of geomorphic structures found on the surface. Understanding geologic features, their formation, and any recent activity are key inputs in constraining Europa’s potential for habitability. In addition to providing information about the moon’s habitability, the geologic study of Europa is compelling in and of itself. Here we provide a high-level, cross-instrument, and cross-discipline overview of the geologic investigations planned within the Europa Clipper mission. Europa’s fascinating collection of ice-focused geology provides an unparalleled opportunity to investigate the dynamics of icy shells, ice-ocean exchange processes, and global-scale tectonic and tidal stresses. We present an overview of what is currently known about the geology of Europa, from global to local scales, highlighting outstanding issues and open questions, and detailing how the Europa Clipper mission will address them. We describe the mission’s strategy for searching for and characterizing current activity in the form of possible active plumes, thermal anomalies, evidence for surface changes, and extremely fresh surface exposures. The complementary and synergistic nature of the data sets from the various instruments and their integration will be key to significantly advancing our understanding of Europa’s geology.

Space Science Reviews↗
USGS2005

Fundamental challenges to methane recovery from gas hydrates

The fundamental challenges, the location, magnitude, and feasibility of recovery, which must be addressed to recover methane from dispersed hydrate sources, are presented. To induce dissociation of gas hydrate prior to methane recovery, two potential methods are typically considered. Because thermal stimulation requires a large energy input, it is less economically feasible than depressurization. The new data will allow the study of the effect of pressure, temperature, diffusion, porosity, tortuosity, composition of gas and water, and porous media on gas-hydrate production. These data also will allow one to improve existing models related to the stability and dissociation of sea floor hydrates. The reproducible kinetic data from the planned runs together with sediment properties will aid in developing a process to economically recover methane from a potential untapped hydrate source. The availability of plentiful methane will allow economical and large-scale production of methane-derived clean fuels to help avert future energy crises.

Topics in Catalysis↗
USGS2021

Estimates of energy partitioning, evapotranspiration, and net ecosystem exchange of CO2 for an urban lawn and a tallgrass prairie in the Denver metropolitan area under contrasting conditions

Lawns as a landcover change substantially alter evapotranspiration, CO 2 , and energy exchanges and are of rising importance considering their spatial extent. We contrast eddy covariance (EC) flux measurements collected in the Denver, Colorado, USA metropolitan area in 2011 and 2012 over a lawn and a xeric tallgrass prairie. Close linkages between seasonal vegetation development, energy fluxes, and net ecosystem exchange ( NEE ) of CO 2 were found. Irrigation of the lawn modified energy and CO 2 fluxes and greatly contributed to differences observed between sites. Due to greater water inputs (precipitation + irrigation) at the lawn in this semi-arid climate, energy partitioning at the lawn was dominated by latent heat ( LE ) flux. As a result, evapotranspiration ( ET ) of the lawn was more than double that of tallgrass prairie (2011: 639(±17) mm vs. 302(±9) mm; 2012: 584(±15) mm vs. 265(±7) mm). NEE for the lawn was characterized by a longer growing season, higher daily net uptake of CO 2 , and growing season NEE that was also more than twice that of the prairie (2011: −173(±23) g C m −2 vs. -81(±10) g C m −2 ; 2012: −73(±22) g C m −2 vs. -21(±8) g C m −2 ). During the drought year (2012), temperature and water stress greatly influenced the direction and magnitude of CO 2 flux at both sites. The results suggest that lawns in Denver can function as carbon sinks and conditionally contribute to the mitigation of carbon emissions - directly by CO 2 uptake and indirectly through effects of evaporative cooling on microclimate and energy use.

Colorado↗
USGS2006

Overview of investigations into mercury in ground water, soils, and septage, New Jersey coastal plain

Since the early 1980s, investigations by health departments of eight counties in southern New Jersey, by the NJ Department of Environmental Protection (NJDEP), and subsequently by the US Geological Survey (USGS), have shown that Hg concentrations in water tapped by about 600 domestic wells exceed the maximum contaminant level (MCL) of 2 μg/L. The wells are finished in the areally extensive unconfined Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system of New Jersey's Coastal Plain; background concentrations of Hg in water from this system are < 0.01 μg/L. Evidence of contributions from point sources of Hg, such as landfills or commercial and industrial hazardous-waste sites, is lacking. During 1996–2003, the USGS collected water samples from 203 domestic, irrigation, observation, and production wells using ultraclean techniques; septage, leach-field effluent, soils, and aquifer sediments also were sampled. Elevated concentrations of NH 4 , B, Cl, NO 3 , and Na and presence of surfactants in domestic-well water indicate that septic-system effluent can affect water quality in unsewered residential areas, but neither septage nor effluent appears to be a major Hg source. Detections of hydrogen sulfide in ground water at a residential area indicate localized reducing conditions; undetectable SO 4 concentrations in water from other residential areas indicate that reducing conditions, which could be conducive to Hg methylation, may be common locally. Volatile organic compounds (VOCs), mostly chlorinated solvents, also are found in ground water at the affected areas, but statistically significant associations between presence of Hg and VOCs were absent for most areas evaluated. Hg concentrations are lower in some filtered water samples than in paired unfiltered samples, likely indicating that some Hg is associated with particles or colloids. The source of colloids may be soils, which, when undisturbed, contain higher concentrations of Hg than do disturbed soils and aquifer sediments. Soil disturbance during residential development and inputs from septic systems are hypothesized to mobilize Hg from soils to ground water.

New Jersey↗
USGS2010

Mercury and methylmercury dynamics in a coastal plain watershed, New Jersey, USA

The upper Great Egg Harbor River watershed in New Jersey's Coastal Plain is urbanized but extensive freshwater wetlands are present downstream. In 2006-2007, studies to assess levels of total mercury (THg) found concentrations in unfiltered streamwater to range as high as 187 ng/L in urbanized areas. THg concentrations were <20 ng/L in streamwater in forested/wetlands areas where both THg and dissolved organic carbon concentrations tended to increase while pH and concentrations of dissolved oxygen and nitrate decreased with flushing of soils after rain. Most of the river's flow comes from groundwater seepage; unfiltered groundwater samples contained up to 177 ng/L of THg in urban areas where there is a history of well water with THg that exceeds the drinking water standard (2,000 ng/L). THg concentrations were lower (<25 ng/L) in unfiltered groundwater from downstream wetland areas. In addition to higher THg concentrations (mostly particulate), concentrations of chloride were higher in streamwater and groundwater from urban areas than in those from downstream wetland areas. Methylmercury (MeHg) concentrations in unfiltered streamwater ranged from 0.17 ng/L at a forest/wetlands site to 2.94 ng/L at an urban site. The percentage of THg present as MeHg increased as the percentage of forest + wetlands increased, but also was high in some urban areas. MeHg was detected only in groundwater <1 m below the water/sediment interface. Atmospheric deposition is presumed to be the main source of Hg to the wetlands and also may be a source to groundwater, where wastewater inputs in urban areas are hypothesized to mobilize Hg deposited to soils. ?? 2010 US Government.

Water, Air, & Soil Pollution↗
USGS2013

Variable contributions of mercury from groundwater to a first-order urban coastal plain stream in New Jersey, USA

Filtered total mercury (FTHg) concentrations in a rapidly urbanizing area ranged from 50 to 250 ng/L in surface waters of the Squankum Branch, a tributary to a major river (Great Egg Harbor River (GEHR)) traversing both urban and forested/wetland areas in the Coastal Plain of New Jersey. An unsewered residential area with Hg-contaminated well water (one of many in the region) is adjacent to the stream’s left bank. Although the region’s groundwater contains total Hg (THg) at background levels of <10 ng/L, water from about 700 domestic wells in urbanized areas completed in the acidic, quartzose unconfined aquifer typically at depths 20 to 30 m below land surface has been found to exceed 2,000 ng/L (the USEPA maximum contaminant level). Within urbanized areas, THg concentrations in shallow groundwater (<20 m below land surface at or near the water table) and the potential for Hg transport were not well known, representing a considerable knowledge gap. Sampling of streamwater in, and groundwater discharge to, the Squankum Branch watershed revealed that concentrations of THg generally were in the range of 1 to 10 ng/L, but narrow plumes (“plumelets”) of shallow groundwater discharging to the stream from the opposing banks contained FTHg at a concentration > 5,000 ng/L (left bank) and nearly 2,000 ng/L (right bank). The Hg content of bankside soils and sediments was high (up to 12 mg/kg) and mostly acid leachable where groundwater with high Hg concentrations discharged, indicating contributions of Hg by both runoff and shallow groundwater. Elevated concentrations of nutrients and chloride in some groundwater plumelets likely indicated inputs from septic-system effluent and (or) fertilizer applications. The Hg probably derives mainly from mercurial pesticide applications to the former agricultural land being urbanized. The study results show that soil disturbance and introduction of anthropogenic substances can mobilize Hg from soils to shallow groundwater and the Hg contamination travels in narrow plumelets to discharge points such as stream tributaries. In the entire GEHR watershed, THg concentrations in groundwater discharging to streams in urban areas tended to be higher than concentrations in water discharging to streams of forested areas, consistent with the results from this small watershed. Other areas with similar quartzose coastal aquifers, land-use history, and hydrogeology may be similarly vulnerable to Hg contamination of shallow groundwater and associated surface water.

New Jersey↗
USGS2025

Quantifying leachable phosphorus from the leaves of common midwest urban street trees and implications for stormwater management

Urban runoff containing high amounts of nutrients like phosphorus (P) is a well-established driver of surface water eutrophication. In residential areas, a primary source of nutrients is derived from leaf litter. P contained in leaves is leached and transported by stormwater from source to stream. The majority of P leached from leaf litter is in the dissolved phase, which can be difficult to remove using conventional treatment practices, leaving source control as the most viable option. Additional tools are needed to help forecast how different tree species may improve or hinder contributions of nutrients to runoff. For this reason, ten street tree species that are common throughout the contiguous U.S. were chosen to evaluate the effect of species on leachable P from tree leaves using laboratory experiments. After 48 h of exposure to water, the amount of P released ranged from 2.16 mg P g −1 leaf for Silver Maple to 0.03 mg P g −1 leaf for Hackberry. More than half of the P was lost in the first 12 h for eight of the ten tree species, making guided source control important to reduce inputs to surface water from key locations. Results were used to identify ‘hotspots’ of P leaching in Madison, WI and can be used to assess current street tree inventories that can then guide management to areas with the highest nutrient reduction potential and inform urban foresters who may wish to tailor future planting scenarios that minimize nutrients in runoff.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2010

Soil and periphyton indicators of anthropogenic water-quality changes in a rainfall-driven wetland

Surface soils and periphyton communities were sampled across an oligotrophic, soft-water wetland to document changes associated with pulsed inputs of nutrient- and mineral-rich canal drainage waters. A gradient of canal-water influence was indicated by the surface-water specific conductance, which ranged between 743 and 963 μS cm −1 in the canals to as low as 60 μS cm −1 in the rainfall-driven wetland interior. Changes in soil chemistry and periphyton taxonomic composition across this gradient were described using piecewise regressions models. The greatest increase in soil phosphorus (P) concentration occurred at sites closest to the canal while soil mineral (sulfur, calcium) concentrations increased most rapidly at the lower end of the gradient. Multiple periphyton shifts occurred at the lower end of the gradient and included; (1) a decline in desmids and non-desmid filamentous chlorophytes, and their replacement by a diatom-dominated community; (2) the loss of soft-water diatom indicator species and their replacement by hard-water species. Increased dominance by cyanobacteria and eutrophic diatom indicators occurred closer to the canals. Soil and periphyton changes indicated four zones of increasing canal influence across the wetland: (1) a zone of increasing mineral concentrations where soft-water taxa remained dominant; (2) a transition towards hard-water, oligotrophic diatoms as mineral concentrations increased further; (3) a zone of dominance by these hard-water species; (4) a zone of rapidly increasing P concentrations and dominance by eutrophic taxa. In contrast to conclusions drawn from routine water-chemistry monitoring, measures of chemical and biological change presented here indicate that most of this rainfall-driven peatland receives some influence from canal discharges. These changes are multifaceted and induced by shifts in multiple chemical constituents.

Florida↗
USGS2017

The influence of data characteristics on detecting wetland/stream surface-water connections in the Delmarva Peninsula, Maryland and Delaware

The dependence of downstream waters on upstream ecosystems necessitates an improved understanding of watershed-scale hydrological interactions including connections between wetlands and streams. An evaluation of such connections is challenging when, (1) accurate and complete datasets of wetland and stream locations are often not available and (2) natural variability in surface-water extent influences the frequency and duration of wetland/stream connectivity. The Upper Choptank River watershed on the Delmarva Peninsula in eastern Maryland and Delaware is dominated by a high density of small, forested wetlands. In this analysis, wetland/stream surface water connections were quantified using multiple wetland and stream datasets, including headwater streams and depressions mapped from a lidar-derived digital elevation model. Surface-water extent was mapped across the watershed for spring 2015 using Landsat-8, Radarsat-2 and Worldview-3 imagery. The frequency of wetland/stream connections increased as a more complete and accurate stream dataset was used and surface-water extent was included, in particular when the spatial resolution of the imagery was finer (i.e., <10 m). Depending on the datasets used, 12–60% of wetlands by count (21–93% of wetlands by area) experienced surface-water interactions with streams during spring 2015. This translated into a range of 50–94% of the watershed contributing direct surface water runoff to streamflow. This finding suggests that our interpretation of the frequency and duration of wetland/stream connections will be influenced not only by the spatial and temporal characteristics of wetlands, streams and potential flowpaths, but also by the completeness, accuracy and resolution of input datasets.

Delaware, Maryland↗
USGS2018

Historical sediment mercury deposition for select South Dakota, USA, lakes: implications for watershed transport and flooding

Purpose Select South Dakota, USA water bodies, including both natural lakes and man-made impoundments, were sampled and analyzed to assess mercury (Hg) dynamics and historical patterns of total Hg deposition. Materials and methods Sediment cores were collected from seven South Dakota lakes. Mercury concentrations and flux profiles were determined using lead ( 210 Pb) dating and sedimentation rates. Results and discussion Most upper lake sediments contained variable heavy metal concentrations, but became more consistent with depth and age. Five of the seven lakes exhibited Hg accumulation fluxes that peaked between 1920 and 1960, while the remaining two lakes exhibited recent (1995–2009) Hg flux spikes. Historical sediment accumulation rates and Hg flux profiles demonstrate similar peak and stabilized values. Mercury in the sampled South Dakota lakes appears to emanate from watershed transport due to erosion from agricultural land use common to the Northern Great Plains. Conclusions For sampled South Dakota lakes, watershed inputs are more significant sources of Hg than atmospheric deposition.

South Dakota↗
USGS2006

Belowground carbon balance and carbon accumulation rate in the successional series of monsoon evergreen broad-leaved forest

The balance, accumulation rate and temporal dynamics of belowground carbon in the successional series of monsoon evergreen broadleaved forest are obtained in this paper, based on long-term observations to the soil organic matter, input and standing biomass of litter and coarse woody debris, and dissolved organic carbon carried in the hydrological process of subtropical climax forest ecosystem—monsoon evergreen broad-leaved forest, and its two successional forests of natural restoration—coniferous and broad-leaved mixed forest and Pinus massoniana forest, as well as data of root biomass obtained once every five years and respiration measurement of soil, litter and coarse woody debris respiration for 1 year. The major results include: the belowground carbon pools of monsoon evergreen broad-leaved forest, coniferous and broad-leaved mixed forest, and Pinus massoniana forest are 23191 ± 2538 g · m −2 , 16889 ± 1936 g · m −2 and 12680 ± 1854 g · m −2 , respectively, in 2002. Mean annual carbon accumulation rates of the three forest types during the 24a from 1978 to 2002 are 383 ± 97 g · m −2 · a −1 , 193 ± 85 g · m −2 · a −1 and 213 ± 86 g · m −2 · a −1 , respectively. The belowground carbon pools in the three forest types keep increasing during the observation period, suggesting that belowground carbon pools are carbon sinks to the atmosphere. There are seasonal variations, namely, they are strong carbon sources from April to June, weak carbon sources from July to September; while they are strong carbon sinks from October to November, weak carbon sinks from December to March.

Science in China, Series D: Earth Sciences↗
USGS2016

A cellular automata downscaling based 1 km global land use datasets (2010–2100)

Global climate and environmental change studies require detailed land-use and land-cover(LULC) information about the past, present, and future. In this paper, we discuss a methodology for downscaling coarse-resolution (i.e., half-degree) future land use scenarios to finer (i.e., 1 km) resolutions at the global scale using a grid-based spatially explicit cellular automata (CA) model. We account for spatial heterogeneity from topography, climate, soils, and socioeconomic variables. The model uses a global 30 m land cover map (2010) as the base input, a variety of biogeographic and socioeconomic variables, and an empirical analysis to downscale coarse-resolution land use information (specifically urban, crop and pasture). The output of this model offers the most current and finest-scale future LULC dynamics from 2010 to 2100 (with four representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios—RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5) at a 1 km resolution within a globally consistent framework. The data are freely available for download, and will enable researchers to study the impacts of LULC change at the local scale.

Science Bulletin↗
USGS2011

A habitat overlap analysis derived from maxent for tamarisk and the south-western willow flycatcher

Biologic control of the introduced and invasive, woody plant tamarisk ( Tamarix spp, saltcedar) in south-western states is controversial because it affects habitat of the federally endangered South-western Willow Flycatcher ( Empidonax traillii extimus ). These songbirds sometimes nest in tamarisk where floodplain-level invasion replaces native habitats. Biologic control, with the saltcedar leaf beetle ( Diorhabda elongate ), began along the Virgin River, Utah, in 2006, enhancing the need for comprehensive understanding of the tamarisk-flycatcher relationship. We used maximum entropy (Maxent) modeling to separately quantify the current extent of dense tamarisk habitat (>50% cover) and the potential extent of habitat available for E. traillii extimus within the studied watersheds. We used transformations of 2008 Landsat Thematic Mapper images and a digital elevation model as environmental input variables. Maxent models performed well for the flycatcher and tamarisk with Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) values of 0.960 and 0.982, respectively. Classification of thresholds and comparison of the two Maxent outputs indicated moderate spatial overlap between predicted suitable habitat for E. traillii extimus and predicted locations with dense tamarisk stands, where flycatcher habitat will potentially change flycatcher habitats. Dense tamarisk habitat comprised 500 km 2 within the study area, of which 11.4% was also modeled as potential habitat for E. traillii extimus . Potential habitat modeled for the flycatcher constituted 190 km 2 , of which 30.7% also contained dense tamarisk habitat. Results showed that both native vegetation and dense tamarisk habitats exist in the study area and that most tamarisk infestations do not contain characteristics that satisfy the habitat requirements of E. traillii extimus . Based on this study, effective biologic control of Tamarix spp. may, in the short term, reduce suitable habitat available to E. traillii extimus , but also has the potential in the long term to increase suitable habitat if appropriate mixes of native woody vegetation replace tamarisk in biocontrol areas.

Frontiers of Earth Science↗
USGS2010

Stochastic ecological network occupancy (SENO) models: a new tool for modeling ecological networks across spatial scales

Stochastic ecological network occupancy (SENO) models predict the probability that species will occur in a sample of an ecological network. In this review, we introduce SENO models as a means to fill a gap in the theoretical toolkit of ecologists. As input, SENO models use a topological interaction network and rates of colonization and extinction (including consumer effects) for each species. A SENO model then simulates the ecological network over time, resulting in a series of sub-networks that can be used to identify commonly encountered community modules. The proportion of time a species is present in a patch gives its expected probability of occurrence, whose sum across species gives expected species richness. To illustrate their utility, we provide simple examples of how SENO models can be used to investigate how topological complexity, species interactions, species traits, and spatial scale affect communities in space and time. They can categorize species as biodiversity facilitators, contributors, or inhibitors, making this approach promising for ecosystem-based management of invasive, threatened, or exploited species.

Theoretical Ecology↗
USGS2010

Long-term trends in submersed aquatic vegetation (SAV) in Chesapeake Bay, USA, related to water quality

Chesapeake Bay supports a diverse assemblage of marine and freshwater species of submersed aquatic vegetation (SAV) whose broad distributions are generally constrained by salinity. An annual aerial SAV monitoring program and a bi-monthly to monthly water quality monitoring program have been conducted throughout Chesapeake Bay since 1984. We performed an analysis of SAV abundance and up to 22 environmental variables potentially influencing SAV growth and abundance (1984-2006). Historically, SAV abundance has changed dramatically in Chesapeake Bay, and since 1984, when SAV abundance was at historic low levels, SAV has exhibited complex changes including long-term (decadal) increases and decreases, as well as some large, single-year changes. Chesapeake Bay SAV was grouped into three broad-scale community-types based on salinity regime, each with their own distinct group of species, and detailed analyses were conducted on these three community-types as well as on seven distinct case-study areas spanning the three salinity regimes. Different trends in SAVabundance were evident in the different salinity regimes. SAV abundance has (a) continually increased in the low-salinity region; (b) increased initially in the medium-salinity region, followed by fluctuating abundances; and (c) increased initially in the high-salinity region, followed by a subsequent decline. In all areas, consistent negative correlations between measures of SAV abundance and nitrogen loads or concentrations suggest that meadows are responsive to changes in inputs of nitrogen. For smaller case-study areas, different trends in SAV abundance were also noted including correlations to water clarity in high-salinity case-study areas, but nitrogen was highly correlated in all areas. Current maximum SAV coverage for almost all areas remain below restoration targets, indicating that SAV abundance and associated ecosystem services are currently limited by continued poor water quality, and specifically high nutrient concentrations, within Chesapeake Bay. The nutrient reductions noted in some tributaries, which were highly correlated to increases in SAV abundance, suggest management activities have already contributed to SAV increases in some areas, but the strong negative correlation throughout the Chesapeake Bay between nitrogen and SAV abundance also suggests that further nutrient reductions will be necessary for SAV to attain or exceed restoration targets throughout the bay.

Estuaries and Coasts↗
USGS2011

Using multitemporal remote sensing imagery and inundation measures to improve land change estimates in coastal wetlands

Remote sensing imagery can be an invaluable resource to quantify land change in coastal wetlands. Obtaining an accurate measure of land change can, however, be complicated by differences in fluvial and tidal inundation experienced when the imagery is captured. This study classified Landsat imagery from two wetland areas in coastal Louisiana from 1983 to 2010 into categories of land and water. Tide height, river level, and date were used as independent variables in a multiple regression model to predict land area in the Wax Lake Delta (WLD) and compare those estimates with an adjacent marsh area lacking direct fluvial inputs. Coefficients of determination from regressions using both measures of water level along with date as predictor variables of land extent in the WLD, were higher than those obtained using the current methodology which only uses date to predict land change. Land change trend estimates were also improved when the data were divided by time period. Water level corrected land gain in the WLD from 1983 to 2010 was 1 km 2 year −1 , while rates in the adjacent marsh remained roughly constant. This approach of isolating environmental variability due to changing water levels improves estimates of actual land change in a dynamic system, so that other processes that may control delta development such as hurricanes, floods, and sediment delivery, may be further investigated.

Lousianna↗
USGS2013

Exchange of nitrogen and phosphorus between a shallow lagoon and coastal waters

West Falmouth Harbor, a shallow lagoon on Cape Cod, has experienced a threefold increase in nitrogen load since the mid- to late 1990s due to input from a groundwater plume contaminated by a municipal wastewater treatment plant. We measured the exchange of nitrogen and phosphorus between the harbor and the coastal waters of Buzzards Bay over several years when the harbor was experiencing this elevated nitrogen load. During summer months, the harbor not only retained the entire watershed nitrogen load but also had a net import of nitrogen from Buzzards Bay. During the spring and fall, the harbor had a net export of nitrogen to Buzzards Bay. We did not measure the export in winter, but assuming the winter net export was less than 112 % of the load, the harbor exported less than half of the watershed nitrogen load on an annual basis. For phosphorus, the harbor had a net import from coastal waters in the spring and summer months and a net export in the fall. Despite the large increase in nitrogen load to the harbor, the summertime import of phosphorus from Buzzards Bay was sufficient to maintain nitrogen limitation of primary productivity during the summer. Our findings illustrate that shallow systems dominated by benthic producers have the potential to retain large terrestrial nitrogen loads when there is sufficient supply of phosphorus from exchange with coastal waters.

Buzzards Bay, West Falmouth Harbor↗
USGS2014

Estimates of natural salinity and hydrology in a subtropical estuarine ecosystem: implications for Greater Everglades restoration

Disruption of the natural patterns of freshwater flow into estuarine ecosystems occurred in many locations around the world beginning in the twentieth century. To effectively restore these systems, establishing a pre-alteration perspective allows managers to develop science-based restoration targets for salinity and hydrology. This paper describes a process to develop targets based on natural hydrologic functions by coupling paleoecology and regression models using the subtropical Greater Everglades Ecosystem as an example. Paleoecological investigations characterize the circa 1900 CE (pre-alteration) salinity regime in Florida Bay based on molluscan remains in sediment cores. These paleosalinity estimates are converted into time series estimates of paleo-based salinity, stage, and flow using numeric and statistical models. Model outputs are weighted using the mean square error statistic and then combined. Results indicate that, in the absence of water management, salinity in Florida Bay would be about 3 to 9 salinity units lower than current conditions. To achieve this target, upstream freshwater levels must be about 0.25 m higher than indicated by recent observed data, with increased flow inputs to Florida Bay between 2.1 and 3.7 times existing flows. This flow deficit is comparable to the average volume of water currently being diverted from the Everglades ecosystem by water management. The products (paleo-based Florida Bay salinity and upstream hydrology) provide estimates of pre-alteration hydrology and salinity that represent target restoration conditions. This method can be applied to any estuarine ecosystem with available paleoecologic data and empirical and/or model-based hydrologic data.

Florida↗