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Reconstructing satellite images to quantify spatially explicit land surface change caused by fires and succession: A demonstration in the Yukon River Basin of interior Alaska

Land surface change caused by fires and succession is confounded by many site-specific factors and requires further study. The objective of this study was to reveal the spatially explicit land surface change by minimizing the confounding factors of weather variability, seasonal offset, topography, land cover, and drainage. In a pilot study of the Yukon River Basin of interior Alaska, we retrieved Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), albedo, and land surface temperature (LST) from a postfire Landsat image acquired on August 5th, 2004. With a Landsat reference image acquired on June 26th, 1986, we reconstructed NDVI, albedo, and LST of 1987–2004 fire scars for August 5th, 2004, assuming that these fires had not occurred. The difference between actual postfire and assuming-no-fire scenarios depicted the fires and succession impact. Our results demonstrated the following: (1) NDVI showed an immediate decrease after burning but gradually recovered to prefire levels in the following years, in which burn severity might play an important role during this process; (2) Albedo showed an immediate decrease after burning but then recovered and became higher than prefire levels; and (3) Most fires caused surface warming, but cooler surfaces did exist; time-since-fire affected the prefire and postfire LST difference but no absolute trend could be found. Our approach provided spatially explicit land surface change rather than average condition, enabling a better understanding of fires and succession impact on ecological consequences at the pixel level.

ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing↗

Assessing ecological uncertainty and simulation model sensitivity to evaluate an invasive plant species’ potential impacts to the landscape

Ecological forecasts of the extent and impacts of invasive species can inform conservation management decisions. Such forecasts are hampered by ecological uncertainties associated with non-analog conditions resulting from the introduction of an invader to an ecosystem. We developed a state-and-transition simulation model tied to a fire behavior model to simulate the spread of buffelgrass ( Cenchrus ciliaris ) in Saguaro National Park, AZ, USA over a 30-year period. The simulation models forecast the potential extent and impact of a buffelgrass invasion including size and frequency of fire events and displacement of saguaro cacti and other native species. Using simulation models allowed us to evaluate how model uncertainties affected forecasted landscape outcomes. We compared scenarios covering a range of parameter uncertainties including model initialization (landscape susceptibility to invasion) and expert-identified ecological uncertainties (buffelgrass patch infill rates and precipitation). Our simulations showed substantial differences in the amount of buffelgrass on the landscape and the size and frequency of fires for dry years with slow patch infill scenarios compared to wet years with fast patch infill scenarios. We identified uncertainty in buffelgrass patch infill rates as a key area for research to improve forecasts. Our approach could be used to investigate novel processes in other invaded systems.

Scientific Reports↗

Coccidioides niches and habitat parameters in the southwestern United States: A matter of scale

To determine habitat attributes and processes suitable for the growth of Coccidioides, soils were collected from sites in Arizona, California, and Utah where Coccidioides is known to have been present. Humans or animals or both have been infected by Coccidioides at all of the sites. Soil variables considered in the upper 20 cm of the soil profile included pH, electrical conductivity, salinity, selected anions, texture, mineralogy, vegetation types and density, and the overall geomorphologic and ecological settings. Thermometerswere buried to determine the temperature range in the upper part of the soil where Coccidioides is often found. With the exception of temperature regimes and soil textures, it is striking that none of the other variables or group of variables that might be definitive are indicative of the presence of Coccidioides. Vegetation ranges from sparse to relatively thick cover in lower Sonoran deserts, Chaparral-upper Sonoran brush and grasslands, and Mediterranean savannas and forested foothills. No particular grass, shrub, or forb is definitive. Material classified as very fine sand and silt is abundant in all of the Coccidioides-bearing soils and may be their most common shared feature. Clays are not abundant (less than 10%). All of the examined soil locations are noteworthy as generally 50% of the individuals who were exposed to the dust or were excavating dirt at the sites were infected. Coccidioides has persisted in the soil at a site in Dinosaur National Monument, Utah for 37 years and at a Tucson, Arizona site for 41 years. ?? 2007 New York Academy of Sciences.

Conference Paper↗

Climate change impacts on southeastern U.S. basins

The work described herein aims to assess the impacts of potential climate change on the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) and Alabama-Coosa-Talapoosa (ACT) river basins in the Southeastern US. The assessment addresses the potential impacts on watershed hydrology (soil moisture and streamflow) and on major water uses including water supply, drought management, hydropower, environmental and ecological protection, recreation, and navigation. This investigation develops new methods, establishes and uses an integrated modeling framework, and reaches several important conclusions that bear upon river basin planning and management. Although the specific impacts vary significantly with the choice of the GCM scenario, some general conclusions are that (1) soil moisture and streamflow variability is expected to increase, and (2) flexible and adaptive water sharing agreements, management strategies, and institutional processes are best suited to cope with the uncertainty associated with future climate scenarios.

Open-File Report↗

Preliminary Surficial Geology of the Dove Spring Off-Highway Vehicle Open Area, Mojave Desert, California

Introduction As part of a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) monitoring plan to evaluate the environmental impact of off-highway vehicle (OHV) use on Bureau of Land Management (BLM) land in California, this report presents results of geologic studies in the Dove Spring OHV Open Area. This study produced baseline data, which when combined with historic and current patterns of land use, forms the basis for vegetation and wildlife monitoring designed to address the following questions: 1. Is the density and length of OHV routes increasing? 2. Are there cumulative effects of past and current OHV use associated with changes in the environmental integrity of soils, plants, and wildlife? 3. Is the spread of invasive species associated with levels of OHV use? 4. Is there a threshold of OHV impact that might be translated to management action by the BLM? The monitoring studies will be used to collect baseline environmental information to determine levels of environmental impact of OHV use. This approach will use a low-impact area as a proxy for pre-impact conditions (substituting space for time) to determine thresholds of OHV impacts beyond which environmental integrity is affected. Indicators of environmental integrity will emphasize factors that are fundamental to ecosystem structure and function and likely to be sensitive to OHV impacts. Surficial geology is studied because material properties such as texture and chemistry strongly control soil moisture and nutrient availability and therefore affect plant growth and distribution. An understanding of surficial geology can be used to predict and extrapolate soil properties and improve understanding of vegetation assemblages and their distribution. In the present study, vegetation associations may be examined as a function of surficial geology as well as other environmental variables such as slope, aspect, NRCS (National Resources Conservation Service) soil classification, elevation, and land-use history. Ground measurements of vegetation, biological soil crusts, compaction, and other information may be correlated with land use to identify possible ecological thresholds in OHV use that require monitoring. Surficial geology is relevant for several other studies of OHV impact, such as soil compaction, dust emissions, and acceleration of erosion. Compaction, reduced infiltration, and accelerated erosion have been documented in Dove Spring Canyon because of OHV use (Snyder and others, 1976) and elsewhere in the Mojave Desert (e.g., Webb, 1983; Langdon, 2000). A surficial geologic map enables the use of geomorphic process models, which when combined with measured soil properties, such as texture, nutrient chemistry, and bulk density, allows spatial extrapolation of the properties. Maps can be produced that predict compaction susceptibility, moisture conditions, dust emissions, flood hazards, and erodibility, among other applications.

Open-File Report↗

Effects of low and high salinity regimes on seasonal gametogenesis of the ribbed mussel Geukensia granosissima in coastal Louisiana, USA

Benthic intertidal bivalves play an essential role in estuarine ecosystems by contributing to habitat provision, water filtration, and host vegetation productivity. As such, ecosystem level changes that impact population distributions and persistence of local bivalve populations may have large ecosystem level consequences, making it important to better understand the population ecology of native bivalves. In order to determine potential impacts of shifting salinity and temperature regimes along the northern Gulf of Mexico, the seasonal timing of gametogenesis in the Gulf estuarine ribbed mussel, Geukensia granossisima, was examined across a salinity gradient in southeastern Louisiana, from July 2011 through October 2012. Ten mussels were randomly sampled monthly from low (~ 5) and high (~25) salinity marsh sites in southeastern Louisiana, and histologically processed to determine the seasonal progression of gametogenesis. Peak ripeness occurred at both sites between April and September, was positively correlated with temperature, and coincided with seasonal shifts in salinity. Mussels located in lower salinity waters demonstrated a shorter period of gametogenesis, and lower rates of ripeness indicating that changes in salinity regimes may impact long-term population dynamics.

Louisiana↗

The rise and fall of water hyacinth in Lake Victoria and the Kagera River basin, 1989-2001

Water hyacinth (Eichhornia crassipes (Mart.) Solms) is an invasive aquatic macrophyte associated with major negative economic and ecological impacts to the Lake Victoria region since the plant's establishment in Uganda in the 1980s. Reliable estimates of water hyacinth distribution and extent are required to gauge the severity of the problem through time, relate water hyacinth abundance to environmental factors, identify areas requiring management action, and assess the efficacy of management actions. To provide such estimates and demonstrate the utility of remote sensing for this application, we processed and analyzed remotely sensed imagery to determine the distribution and extent of water hyacinth. Maps were produced and coverage was quantified using a hybrid unsupervised image classification approach with manual editing for each of the riparian countries of Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda, as well as for numerous gulfs and bays. A similar procedure was carried out for selected lakes in the Rwanda-Tanzania borderlands lakes region in the Kagera River basin. Results confirm the severity of the water hyacinth infestation, especially in the northern parts of the lake. A maximum lake-wide extent of at least 17,374 ha was attained in 1998. Following this, a combination of factors, including conditions associated with the 1997 to 1998 El Nin??o and biocontrol with water hyacinth weevils, appear to have contributed to a major decline in water hyacinth in the most affected parts of the lake. Some lakes in the Kagera basin, such as Lake Mihindi, Rwanda, were severely infested in the late 1990s, but the level of infestation in most of these decreased markedly by the early 2000s.

Journal of Aquatic Plant Management↗

Biotransformation of tributyltin to tin in freshwater river-bed sediments contaminated by an organotin release

The largest documented release of organotin compounds to a freshwater river system in the United States occurred in early 2000 in central South Carolina. The release consisted of an unknown volume of various organotin compounds such tetrabutyltin (TTBT), tributyltin (TBT), tetraoctyltin (TTOT), and trioctyl tin (TOT) and resulted in a massive fish kill and the permanent closures of a municipal wastewater treatment plant and a local city's only drinking-water intake. Initial sampling events in 2000 and 2001 indicated that concentrations of the ecologically toxic TTBT and TBT were each greater than 10 000 ??g/kg in surface-water bed sediments in depositional areas, such as lakes and beaver ponds downstream of the release. Bed-sediment samples collected between 2001 and 2003, however, revealed a substantial decrease in bed-sediment organotin concentrations and an increase in concentrations of degradation intermediate compounds. For example, in bed sediments of a representative beaver pond located about 1.6 km downstream of the release, total organotin concentrations [the sum of TTBT, TBT, and the TBT degradation intermediates dibutyltin (DBT) and monobutyltin (MBT)] decreased from 38 670 to 298 ??g/kg. In Crystal Lake, a large lake about 0.4 km downstream from the beaver pond, total organotin concentrations decreased from 28 300 to less than 5 ??g/kg during the same time period. Moreover, bed-sediment inorganic tin concentrations increased from pre-release levels of less than 800 to 32 700 ??g/kg during this time. These field data suggest that the released organotin compounds, such as TBT, are being transformed into inorganic tin by bed-sediment microbial processes. Microcosms were created in the laboratory that contained bed sediment from the two sites and were amended with tributyltin (as tributyltin chloride) under an ambient air headspace and sacrificially analyzed periodically for TBT, the biodegradation intermediates DBT and MBT, and tin. TBT concentrations decreased faster [half-life (t1/2) = 28 d] in the organic-rich sediments (21.5%) that characterized the beaver pond as compared to the slower (t1/2 = 78 d) degradation rate in the sandy, organic-poor, sediments (0.43%) of Crystal Lake. Moreover, the concentration of inorganic tin increased in microcosms containing bed sediments from both locations. These field and laboratory results suggest that biotransformation of the released organotins, in particular the ecologically detrimental TBT, does occur in this fresh surface-water system impacted with high concentrations of neat organotin compounds.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

Is a healthy ecosystem one that is rich in parasites?

Historically, the role of parasites in ecosystem functioning has been considered trivial because a cursory examination reveals that their relative biomass is low compared with that of other trophic groups. However there is increasing evidence that parasite-mediated effects could be significant: they shape host population dynamics, alter interspecific competition, influence energy flow and appear to be important drivers of biodiversity. Indeed they influence a range of ecosystem functions and have a major effect on the structure of some food webs. Here, we consider the bottom-up and top-down processes of how parasitism influences ecosystem functioning and show that there is evidence that parasites are important for biodiversity and production; thus, we consider a healthy system to be one that is rich in parasite species.

Trends in Ecology and Evolution↗

A high efficiency method for the extraction and quantitative analysis of 45 PFAS in whole fish

This study describes and validates a new method for extracting perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) from whole-body fish tissue, demonstrates that freeze-dry preservation of tissue conserves bioaccumulative PFAS, and details a method demonstration on Lake Michigan fish. While fish filets are more commonly analyzed for their significance to human health, whole fish are useful to determine ecological impacts, but published methods such as EPA 1633 do not produce reliable results for this more challenging matrix. Here we show that lipid removal technology produces clean extracts without the need for solid-phase extraction or evaporative concentration, which often lead to loss of some PFAS. This method achieves an accuracy of 96 ± 9% for the detection of 45 PFAS while also offering benefits of a simple procedure, reduced processing time, and decreased waste generation compared to multistep cleanup and concentration methods. A test of freeze-drying demonstrated that compounds detected in Great Lakes fish were retained, but volatile compounds including sulfonamide precursors and ethanols were lost. To demonstrate field performance, the entire method was applied to whole-fish composites from Lake Michigan. Results from these samples reveal that the PFAS concentration was driven by collection location, while the distribution of PFAS was dictated by fish species.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

Relevance of ammonium oxidation within biological soil crust communities

Thin, vertically structured topsoil communities that become ecologically important in arid regions (biological soil crusts or BSCs) are responsible for much of the nitrogen inputs into pristine arid lands. We studied N2 fixation and ammonium oxidation (AO) at subcentimetre resolution within BSCs from the Colorado Plateau. Pools of dissolved porewater nitrate/ nitrite, ammonium and organic nitrogen in wetted BSCs were high in comparison with those typical of aridosoils. They remained stable during incubations, indicating that input and output processes were of similar magnitude. Areal N2 fixation rates (6.5-48 ??mol C2H2 m-2 h -1) were high, the vertical distribution of N2 fixation peaking close to the surface if populations of heterocystous cyanobacteria were present, but in the subsurface if they were absent. Areal AO rates (19-46 ??mol N m-2 h-1) were commensurate with N2 fixation inputs. When considering oxygen availability, AO activity invariably peaked 2-3 mm deep and was limited by oxygen (not ammonium) supply. Most probable number (MPN)-enumerated ammonia-oxidizing bacteria (6.7-7.9 ?? 103 cells g-1 on average) clearly peaked at 2-3 mm depth. Thus, AO (hence nitrification) is a spatially restricted but important process in the nitrogen cycling of BSC, turning much of the biologically fixed nitrogen into oxidized forms, the fate of which remains to be determined.

Environmental Microbiology↗

Beach morphology monitoring in the Columbia River Littoral Cell: 1997-2005

This report describes methods used, data collected, and results of the Beach Morphology Monitoring Program in the Columbia River Littoral Cell (CRLC) from 1997 to 2005. A collaborative group primarily consisting of the US Geological Survey and the Washington State Department of Ecology performed this work. Beach Monitoring efforts consisted of collecting topographic and bathymetric horizontal and vertical position data using a Real Time Kinematic Differential Global Positioning System (RTK-DGPS). Sediment size distribution data was also collected as part of this effort. The monitoring program was designed to: 1) quantify the short- to medium-term (seasonal to interannual) beach change rates and morphological variability along the CRLC and assess the processes responsible for these changes; 2) collect beach state data (i.e., grain size, beach slope, and dune/sandbar height/position) to enhance the conceptual understanding of CRLC functioning and refine predictions of future coastal change and hazards; 3) compare and contrast the scales of environmental forcing and beach morphodynamics in the CRLC to other coastlines of the world; and 4) provide beach change data in a useful format to land use managers.

Oregon, Washington↗

Environmental Characteristics and Geographic Information System Applications for the Development of Nutrient Thresholds in Oklahoma Streams

The U.S.Environmental Protection Agency has developed nutrient criteria using ecoregions to manage and protect rivers and streams in the United States. Individual states and tribes are encouraged by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to modify or improve upon the ecoregion approach. The Oklahoma Water Resources Board uses a dichotomous process that stratifies streams using environmental characteristics such as stream order and stream slope. This process is called the Use Support Assessment Protocols, subchapter15. The Use Support Assessment Protocols can be used to identify streams threatened by excessive amounts of nutrients, dependant upon a beneficial use designation for each stream. The Use Support Assessment Protocols, subchapter 15 uses nutrient and environmental characteristic thresholds developed from a study conducted in the Netherlands, but the Oklahoma Water Resources Board wants to modify the thresholds to reflect hydrologic and ecological conditions relevant to Oklahoma streams and rivers. Environmental characteristics thought to affect impairment from nutrient concentrations in Oklahoma streams and rivers were determined for 798 water-quality sites in Oklahoma. Nutrient, chlorophyll, water-properties, and location data were retrieved from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency STORET database including data from the U.S. Geological Survey, Oklahoma Conservation Commission, and Oklahoma Water Resources Board. Drainage-basin area, stream order, stream slope, and land-use proportions were determined for each site using a Geographic Information System. The methods, procedures, and data sets used to determine the environmental characteristics are described.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Modeling responses of large-river fish populations to global climate change through downscaling and incorporation of predictive uncertainty

Climate change operates over a broad range of spatial and temporal scales. Understanding its effects on ecosystems requires multi-scale models. For understanding effects on fish populations of riverine ecosystems, climate predicted by coarse-resolution Global Climate Models must be downscaled to Regional Climate Models to watersheds to river hydrology to population response. An additional challenge is quantifying sources of uncertainty given the highly nonlinear nature of interactions between climate variables and community level processes. We present a modeling approach for understanding and accomodating uncertainty by applying multi-scale climate models and a hierarchical Bayesian modeling framework to Midwest fish population dynamics and by linking models for system components together by formal rules of probability. The proposed hierarchical modeling approach will account for sources of uncertainty in forecasts of community or population response. The goal is to evaluate the potential distributional changes in an ecological system, given distributional changes implied by a series of linked climate and system models under various emissions/use scenarios. This understanding will aid evaluation of management options for coping with global climate change. In our initial analyses, we found that predicted pallid sturgeon population responses were dependent on the climate scenario considered.

Missouri River↗

Optimization of salt marsh management at the Moosehorn National Wildlife Refuge, Maine, through use of structured decision making

Structured decision making is a systematic, transparent process for improving the quality of complex decisions by identifying measurable management objectives and feasible management actions; predicting the potential consequences of management actions relative to the stated objectives; and selecting a course of action that maximizes the total benefit achieved and balances tradeoffs among objectives. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, applied an existing, regional framework for structured decision making to develop a prototype tool for optimizing tidal marsh management decisions at the Moosehorn National Wildlife Refuge in Maine. Refuge biologists, refuge managers, and research scientists identified multiple potential management actions to improve the ecological integrity of four marsh management units within the refuge, totaling about 13 hectares, and estimated the outcomes of each action in terms of performance metrics associated with each management objective. Value functions previously developed at the regional level were used to transform metric scores to a common utility scale, and utilities were summed to produce a single score representing the total management benefit that could be accrued from each potential management action. Constrained optimization was used to identify the set of management actions, one per marsh management unit, that could maximize total management benefits at different cost constraints at the refuge scale. Results indicated that, for the objectives and actions considered here, total management benefits may increase consistently up to $ 1,000, and may continue to increase at a lower rate with further expenditures. Potential management actions in optimal portfolios at total costs less than or equal to $ 1,000 included improving nesting habitat for Ammodramus nelsoni (Nelson’s sparrow) or restoring hydrologic connections to the upper marsh in one marsh management unit (Hobart Stream West). The potential management benefits were derived from expected increases in the density of nekton and of spiders (as an indicator of trophic health). The prototype presented here does not resolve management decisions; rather, it provides a framework for decision making at the Moosehorn National Wildlife Refuge that can be updated for implementation as new data and information become available. Insights from this process may also be useful to inform future habitat management planning at the refuge.

Maine↗

A review of precipitation and temperature control on seedling emergence and establishment for ponderosa and lodgepole pine forest regeneration

The persistence of ponderosa pine and lodgepole pine forests in the 21st century depends to a large extent on how seedling emergence and establishment are influenced by driving climate and environmental variables, which largely govern forest regeneration. We surveyed the literature, and identified 96 publications that reported data on dependent variables of seedling emergence and/or establishment and one or more independent variables of air temperature, soil temperature, precipitation and moisture availability. Our review suggests that seedling emergence and establishment for both species is highest at intermediate temperatures (20 to 25 °C), and higher precipitation and higher moisture availability support a higher percentage of seedling emergence and establishment at daily, monthly and annual timescales. We found that ponderosa pine seedlings may be more sensitive to temperature fluctuations whereas lodgepole pine seedlings may be more sensitive to moisture fluctuations. In a changing climate, increasing temperatures and declining moisture availability may hinder forest persistence by limiting seedling processes. Yet, only 23 studies in our review investigated the effects of driving climate and environmental variables directly. Furthermore, 74 studies occurred in a laboratory or greenhouse, which do not often replicate the conditions experienced by tree seedlings in a field setting. It is therefore difficult to provide strong conclusions on how sensitive emergence and establishment in ponderosa and lodgepole pine are to these specific driving variables, or to investigate their potential aggregate effects. Thus, the effects of many driving variables on seedling processes remain largely inconclusive. Our review stresses the need for additional field and laboratory studies to better elucidate the effects of driving climate and environmental variables on seedling emergence and establishment for ponderosa and lodgepole pine.

Forest Ecology and Management↗

Managing nonperennial headwater streams in temperate forests of the United States

Forest management guidelines are designed to protect water quality from unintended effects of land use changes such as timber harvest, mining, or forest road construction. Although streams that periodically cease to flow (nonperennial) drain the majority of forested areas, these streams are not consistently included in forest management guidelines. This paper reviews management guidelines for nonperennial (intermittent and ephemeral) streams draining temperate forests in the continental U.S., evaluates potential impacts of land use activities on ecosystem services provided by these streams, and identifies information needed to incorporate nonperennial streams into water quality protection practices. For federally administered lands, national management guidance is deliberately nonprescriptive, deferring to regional and forest-level recommendations for both perennial and nonperennial streams. Most state guidelines recommend riparian management zone (RMZ) protection for perennial streams (48/50 states) and intermittent streams (45/50 states), but only Alaska and West Virginia require RMZs around ephemeral streams. Based on the National Hydrography Dataset, an average of 58% of forested land area in the U.S. drains to nonperennial headwater streams, making these stream types the most common connectors between forested lands and the aquatic system. Land uses that modify flow regimes in these streams can affect sediment and organic matter transport and distribution, stream temperature dynamics, and biogeochemical processing. Nonperennial streams also provide material subsidies to downstream waters and serve as temporary habitats for some aquatic species. However, limited research has examined how forest land uses affect ecosystem services and biota in these streams. Therefore we highlight a set of key questions about nonperennial streams in forests, not the least of which is simply understanding where headwater stream channels are located and associated patterns of flow duration. Although many questions remain, we also note where recent advances in data collection, modeling and process-level research provide opportunities to resolve uncertainties around nonperennial streams in forested landscapes of the continental U.S.

Forest Ecology and Management↗

An evaluation and comparison of conservation guidelines for an at-risk migratory songbird

For at-risk wildlife species, it is important to consider conservation within the process of adaptive management. Golden-winged Warblers (Vermivora chrysoptera) are Neotropical migratory songbirds that are experiencing long-term population declines due in part to the loss of early-successional nesting habitat. Recently-developed Golden-winged Warbler habitat management guidelines are being implemented by USDA: Natural Resource Conservation Service (2014) and its partners through the Working Lands For Wildlife (WLFW) program. During 2012–2014, we studied the nesting ecology of Golden-winged Warblers in managed habitats of the eastern US that conformed to WLFW conservation practices. We evaluated five NRCS “management scenarios” with respect to nesting success and attainment of recommended nest site vegetation conditions outlined in the Golden-winged Warbler breeding habitat guidelines. Using estimates of territory density, pairing rate, nest survival, and clutch size, we also estimated fledgling productivity (number of fledglings/ha) for each management scenario. In general, Golden-winged Warbler nest survival declined as each breeding season advanced, but nest survival was similar across management scenarios. Within each management scenario, vegetation variables had little influence on nest survival. Still, percent Rubus cover and density of >2 m tall shrubs were relevant in some management scenarios. All five management scenarios rarely attained recommended levels of nest site vegetation conditions for Golden-winged, yet nest survival was high. Fledgling productivity estimates for each management scenario ranged from 2.1 to 8.6 fledglings/10 hectares. Our results indicate that targeted habitat management for Golden-winged Warblers using a variety of management techniques on private lands has the capability to yield high nest survival and fledgling productivity, and thus have the potential to contribute to the species recovery.

Global Ecology and Conservation↗