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At least 1,657 records · Page 92Linked to original sources

USGS2002

Genetic diversity in a morphologically conservative invasive taxon: Multiple introductions of swamp eels to the southeastern United States

Genetic analysis of introduced populations, especially in morphologically conservative taxa, can clarify introduction histories, identify management units and source populations, provide a more realistic estimate of the frequency of successful invasion, and suggest strategies for preventing further introductions. In the last 7 years, populations of swamp eels, referred to the Asian genus Monopterus (Family Synbranchidae) on the basis of external morphology, have been discovered in aquatic habitats near Atlanta, Georgia; Tampa, Florida; North Miami, Florida; and most recently in close proximity to Everglades National Park in Homestead, Florida. Swamp eels are large predators capable of dispersal over land and have the potential to disrupt already threatened ecosystems. We analyzed mitochondrial DNA sequences from four known populations in the continental United States and samples from Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, and two locations in China to determine introduction histories, source populations, genetic diversity, and relationships among populations. Our results indicate that there have been at least three independent introductions of genetically distinct forms. Introduced populations in close proximity (separated by <40 km) are genetically distinct. The level of sequence difference among introduced populations reaches levels seen among sister families of teleost fishes for the same region of the mitochondrial genome. These genetically distinct introduced populations in all likelihood represent at least two and possibly three species. Regardless of species status, these genetically distinct lineages may be expected to vary in ecological or life-history traits, representing different potential threats to the ecosystems where they have been introduced. Given the success of swamp eels in invading many habitats around the world, further study of these eels is warranted to elucidate the characteristics of successful invaders and invasions.

Conservation Biology↗

USGS2016

Seasonal movements and habitat use of Potamodromous Rainbow Trout across a complex Alaska riverscape

Potamodromous Rainbow Trout Oncorhynchus mykiss are an important ecological and recreational resource in freshwater ecosystems of Alaska, and increased human development, hydroelectric projects, and reduced escapement of Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha may threaten their populations. We used aerial and on-the-ground telemetry tracking, a digital landscape model, and resource selection functions to characterize seasonal movements and habitat use of 232 adult (>400 mm FL) Rainbow Trout across the complex, large (31,221 km 2 ) Susitna River basin of south-central Alaska during 2003–2004 and 2013–2014. We found that fish overwintered in main-stem habitats near tributary mouths from November to April. After ice-out in May, fish ascended tributaries up to 51 km to spawn and afterward moved downstream to lower tributary reaches, assumedly to intercept egg and flesh subsidies provided by spawning salmonids in July and August. Fish transitioned back to main-stem overwintering habitats at the onset of autumn when salmonid spawning waned. Fidelity to tributaries where fish were initially tagged varied across seasons but was high (>0.75) in three out of four drainages. Model-averaged resource selection functions suggested that Rainbow Trout habitat use varied seasonally; fish selected low-gradient, sinuous, main-stem stream reaches in the winter, reaches with suitably sized substrate during spawning, larger reaches during the feeding season prior to the arrival of spawning salmonids, and reaches with high Chinook Salmon spawning habitat potential following the arrival of adult fish. We found little difference in movement patterns between males and females among a subset of fish for which sex was determined using genetic analysis. As most Rainbow Trout undertake extensive movements within and among tributaries and make use of a variety of seasonal habitats to complete their life histories, it will be critical to take a basinwide approach to their management (i.e., habitat protection and angling bag limits) in light of anticipated land-use changes.

Alaska↗

USGS2014

A stage-structured, spatially explicit migration model for Myotis bats: mortality location affects system dynamics

Bats are ecologically and economically important species because they consume insects, transport nutrients, and pollinate flowers. Many species of bats, including those in the Myotis genus, are facing population decline and increased extinction risk. Despite these conservation concerns, few models exist for providing insight into the population dynamics of bats in a spatially explicit context. We developed a model for bats by considering the stage-structured colonial life history of Myotis bats with their annual migration behavior. This model provided insight into network dynamics. We specifically focused on two Myotis species living in the eastern United States: the Indiana bat ( M. sodalis ), which is a Federally listed endangered species, and the little brown bat ( M. lucifugus ), which is under consideration for listing as an endangered species. We found that multiple equilibria exist for the local, migratory subpopulations even though the total population was constant. These equilibria suggest the location and magnitude of stressors such as White-nose Syndrome, meteorological phenomena, or impacts of wind turbines on survival influence system dynamics and risk of population extirpation in difficult to predict ways.

Letters in Biomathematics↗

USGS2026

From understanding to action: Integrating new and old methodologies to manage marine infectious disease

Marine diseases can have far-reaching effects on population, community and ecosystem health; however, our ability to track, predict and manage these diseases has, historically, been poor. As a result, the fields of disease ecology and epidemiology have developed at a slower pace for marine than terrestrial systems [ 1 ]. New methodologies, including genomic tools for diagnostics [ 2 , 3 ], transcriptomic tools for measuring host and pathogen responses to infection (e.g. [ 4 , 5 ]), regional oceanic modelling systems that estimate environmental conditions influencing pathogen dispersal and disease progression [ 6 ], artificial intelligence methods for quantifying pathology from images (e.g. [ 7 ]) and advanced disease modelling techniques [ 8 , 9 ] are precipitating a rapid increase in our understanding of marine pathosystems. In 2016, these efforts led to the first special issue of Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B ( Marine diseases, volume 371, issue 1689) focused entirely on marine disease ecology and evolution, and in 2020, the first book, Marine disease ecology, was devoted to this topic [ 10 ]. This special issue, focused on marine disease management , is being published a decade after the first Philosophical Transactions special issue on marine diseases. The shift to a management focus reflects an urgent need for management strategies to address high-impact diseases and the rapid methodological advances that have resulted. The papers included in this issue demonstrate the value of combining classical approaches (e.g. routine disease surveillance, reductionistic pathogen challenge trials, rapid throughput diagnostics) with cutting-edge technologies (e.g. high-resolution oceanographic models, Bayesian models, replicated transcriptomic studies) to identify drivers of disease, quantify impacts and suggest management strategies.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, S↗

USGS2024

Metagenomic sequencing sheds light on microbes putatively associated with pneumonia-related fatalities of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus)

With emerging infectious disease outbreaks in human, domestic and wild animal populations on the rise, improvements in pathogen characterization and surveillance are paramount for the protection of human and animal health, as well as the conservation of ecologically and economically important wildlife. Genomics offers a range of suitable tools to meet these goals, with metagenomic sequencing facilitating the characterization of whole microbial communities associated with emerging and endemic disease outbreaks. Here, we use metagenomic sequencing in a case-control study to identify microbes in lung tissue associated with newly observed pneumonia-related fatalities in 34 white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) in Wisconsin, USA. We identified 20 bacterial species that occurred in more than a single individual. Of these, only Clostridium novyi was found to substantially differ (in number of detections) between case and control sample groups; however, this difference was not statistically significant. We also detected several bacterial species associated with pneumonia and/or other diseases in ruminants ( Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae , Trueperella pyogenes , Pasteurella multocida , Anaplasma phagocytophilum , Fusobacterium necrophorum ); however, these species did not substantially differ between case and control sample groups. On average, we detected a larger number of bacterial species in case samples than controls, supporting the potential role of polymicrobial infections in this system. Importantly, we did not detect DNA of viruses or fungi, suggesting that they are not significantly associated with pneumonia in this system. Together, these results highlight the utility of metagenomic sequencing for identifying disease-associated microbes. This preliminary list of microbes will help inform future research on pneumonia-associated fatalities of white-tailed deer.

Microbial Genomics↗

USGS2025

Simulating demography, monitoring, and management decisions to evaluate adaptive management strategies for endangered species

Adaptive management (AM) remains underused in conservation, partly because optimization-based approaches require real-world problems to be substantially simplified. We present an approach to AM based in management strategy evaluation, a method used largely in fisheries. Managers define objectives and nominate alternative adaptive strategies, whose future performance is simulated by integrating ecological, learning and decision processes. We applied this approach to conservation of hihi (Notiomystis cincta) across Aotearoa-New Zealand. For multiple extant and prospective hihi populations, we jointly simulated demographic trends, monitoring, estimation, and decisions including translocations and supplementary feeding. Results confirmed that food supplementation assisted recovery, but was more intensive and expensive. Over 20 years, actively pursuing learning, e.g., by removing food from populations, provided little benefit. Recovery group members supported continuing current management or increasing priority on existing populations before reintroducing new populations. Our method can complement formal optimization-based approaches and improve AM uptake, particularly for programs involving many complex and coordinated decisions.

Conservation Letters↗

USGS2013

Contraception can lead to trophic asynchrony between birth pulse and resources

Abiotic inputs such as photoperiod and temperature can regulate reproductive cyclicity in many species. When humans perturb this process by intervening in reproductive cycles, the ecological consequences may be profound. Trophic mismatches between birth pulse and resources in wildlife species may cascade toward decreased survival and threaten the viability of small populations. We followed feral horses (Equus caballus) in three populations for a longitudinal study of the transient immunocontraceptive porcine zona pellucida (PZP), and found that repeated vaccinations extended the duration of infertility far beyond the targeted period. After the targeted years of infertility, the probability of parturition from post-treated females was 25.6% compared to 64.1% for untreated females, when the data were constrained only to females that had demonstrated fertility prior to the study. Estimated time to parturition increased 411.3 days per year of consecutive historical treatment. Births from untreated females in these temperate latitude populations were observed to peak in the middle of May, indicating peak conception occurred around the previous summer solstice. When the post-treated females did conceive and give birth, parturition was an estimated 31.5 days later than births from untreated females, resulting in asynchrony with peak forage availability. The latest neonate born to a post-treated female arrived 7.5 months after the peak in births from untreated females, indicating conception occurred within 24–31 days of the winter solstice. These results demonstrate surprising physiological plasticity for temperate latitude horses, and indicate that while photoperiod and temperature are powerful inputs driving the biological rhythms of conception and birth in horses, these inputs may not limit their ability to conceive under perturbed conditions. The protracted infertility observed in PZP-treated horses may be of benefit for managing overabundant wildlife, but also suggests caution for use in small refugia or rare species.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2025

Home range, seasonality, and the importance of canopy cover for Texas Tortoises (Gopherus berlandieri)

Texas Tortoises ( Gopherus berlandieri ) are understudied compared to federally protected congeners. Despite important early studies on the basic ecology of G. berlandieri , quantitative identification of habitat associations with specific environmental conditions has been limited. Gopherus berlandieri inhabits Tamaulipan thornscrub across its range, and coastal populations are historically associated with low-relief clay ridges with thick mesquital scrub surrounded by salt prairie grasslands. Our study examined tortoise home range size and association with canopy cover and potential ground moisture at a protected natural area in Cameron County, TX, USA. Twelve tortoises were outfitted with GPS loggers that recorded location once an hour from March 2020 to March 2022. To delineate home ranges, we estimated utilization distributions (UDs) for tortoises as autocorrelated kernel density estimates (AKDEs) at low-use (95%) and core-use (50%) levels for each tortoise. UDs were estimated for the entire study period and during seasons of sustained heat or cold to determine if tortoises used space differently across these seasons over the study period. Applying a use-availability study design, we compared canopy cover and potential mesic ground condition (i.e., precipitation flow accumulation) within each tortoise's UD (“use”) to the area within 1 day's movement around the boundary of the UD (“available”). Tortoise UD sizes were significantly different across seasons for low-use (95%) but not for core-use (50%) AKDE levels. Tortoise UDs had greater canopy cover compared to available-but-unused areas at both AKDE levels. Potential mesic ground condition did not significantly differ between available and used areas. Our study revealed that tortoises vary the size of their home ranges throughout the year, whereas areas of intensive use or occupation tended to remain remarkably stable throughout the year. In seasons of extreme weather (hot or cold), tortoises seem to seek out areas of denser canopy cover that likely serve as thermal refugia. Based on our results, effective habitat identification may best be served by ensuring that canopy cover is at least equivalent to the values reported here to ensure sufficient refugia during extreme seasonal temperatures.

Texas↗

USGS2009

When can efforts to control nuisance and invasive species backfire?

Population control through harvest has the potential to reduce the abundance of nuisance and invasive species. However, demographic structure and density-dependent processes can confound removal efforts and lead to undesirable consequences, such as overcompensation (an increase in abundance in response to harvest) and instability (population cycling or chaos). Recent empirical studies have demonstrated the potential for increased mortality (such as that caused by harvest) to lead to overcompensation and instability in plant, insect, and fish populations. We developed a general population model with juvenile and adult stages to help determine the conditions under which control harvest efforts can produce unintended outcomes. Analytical and simulation analyses of the model demonstrated that the potential for overcompensation as a result of harvest was significant for species with high fecundity, even when annual stage-specific survivorship values were fairly low. Population instability as a result of harvest occurred less frequently and was only possible with harvest strategies that targeted adults when both fecundity and adult survivorship were high. We considered these results in conjunction with current literature on nuisance and invasive species to propose general guidelines for assessing the risks associated with control harvest based on life history characteristics of target populations. Our results suggest that species with high per capita fecundity (over discrete breeding periods), short juvenile stages, and fairly constant survivorship rates are most likely to respond undesirably to harvest. It is difficult to determine the extent to which overcompensation and instability could occur during real-world removal efforts, and more empirical removal studies should be undertaken to evaluate population-level responses to control harvests. Nevertheless, our results identify key issues that have been seldom acknowledged and are potentially generic across taxa. ?? 2009 by the Ecological Society ot America.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2022

Undeveloped and developed phases in the centennial evolution of a barrier-marsh-lagoon system: The case of Long Beach Island, New Jersey

Barrier islands and their associated backbarrier environments protect mainland population centers and infrastructure from storm impacts, support biodiversity, and provide long-term carbon storage, among other ecosystem services. Despite their socio-economic and ecological importance, the response of coupled barrier-marsh-lagoon environments to sea-level rise is poorly understood. Undeveloped barrier-marsh-lagoon systems typically respond to sea-level rise through the process of landward migration, driven by storm overwash and landward mainland marsh expansion. Such response, however, can be affected by human development and engineering activities such as lagoon dredging and shoreline stabilization. To better understand the difference in the response between developed and undeveloped barrier-marsh-lagoon environments to sea-level rise, we perform a local morphologic analysis that describes the evolution of Long Beach Island (LBI), New Jersey, over the last 182 years. We find that between 1840 and 1934 the LBI system experienced landward migration of all five boundaries, including 171 meters of shoreline retreat. Between the 1920s and 1950s, however, there was a significant shift in system behavior that coincided with the onset of groin construction, which was enhanced by beach nourishment and lagoon dredging practices. From 1934 to 2022 the LBI system experienced ~22 meters of shoreline progradation and a rapid decline in marsh platform extent. Additionally, we extend a morphodynamic model to describe the evolution of the system in terms of five geomorphic boundaries: the ocean shoreline and backbarrier-marsh interface, the seaward and landward lagoon-marsh boundaries, and the landward limit of the inland marsh. We couple this numerical modeling effort with the map analysis during the undeveloped phase of LBI evolution, between 1840 and 1934. Despite its simplicity, the modeling framework can describe the average cross-shore evolution of the barrier-marsh-lagoon system during this period without accounting for human landscape modifications, supporting the premise that natural processes were the key drivers of morphological change. Overall, these results suggest that anthropogenic effects have played a major role in the evolution of LBI over the past century by altering overwash fluxes and marsh-lagoon geometry; this is likely the case for other barrier-marsh-lagoon environments around the world.

New Jersey↗

USGS2022

Size distribution and reproductive phenology of the invasive Burmese python (Python molurus bivittatus) in the Greater Everglades Ecosystem, Florida, USA

The design of successful invasive species control programs is often hindered by the absence of basic demographic data on the targeted population. Establishment of invasive Burmese pythons ( Python molurus bivittatus ) in the Greater Everglades Ecosystem, Florida USA has led to local precipitous declines (> 90%) of mesomammal populations and is also a major threat to native populations of reptiles and birds. Efforts to control this species are ongoing but are hampered by the lack of access to and information on the expected biological patterns of pythons in southern Florida. We present data from more than 4,000 wild Burmese pythons that were removed in southern Florida over 26 years (1995–2021), the most robust dataset representing this invasive population to date. We used these data to characterize Burmese python size distribution, size at maturity, clutch size, and seasonal demographic and reproductive trends. We broadened the previously described size ranges by sex and, based on our newly defined size-stage classes, showed that males are smaller than females at sexual maturity, confirmed a positive correlation between maternal body size and potential clutch size, and developed predictive equations to facilitate demographic predictions. We also refined the annual breeding season (approx.100 days December into March), oviposition timing (May), and hatchling emergence and dispersal period (July through October) using correlations of capture morphometrics with observations of seasonal gonadal recrudescence (resurgence) and regression. Determination of reproductive output and timing can inform population models and help managers arrest population growth by targeting key aspects of python life history. These results define characteristics of the species in Florida and provide an enhanced understanding of the ecology and reproductive biology of Burmese pythons in their invasive Everglades range.

Florida↗

USGS2001

The robust design for capture-recapture studies: analysis using program MARK

Collecting capture-recapture data under Pollock?s robust design provides an additional source of information on capture probability that can be used to provide less biased and more efficient estimates of population dynamics parameters. In addition, it can be used to estimate the probability of being available for capture, which in some cases (e.g., breeding proportion) has ecological significance. This phenomenon can be modeled as a completely random process, Markovian, or with temporary trap dependence. Analysis of this type of data is one of the options in program MARK. By using MARK the relationship between parameters and covariates can be modeled, and various approaches to goodness of fit, model selection, and model averaging can be implemented.

Book chapter↗

USGS2002

Artificial intelligence based decision support for trumpeter swan management

The number of trumpeter swans (Cygnus buccinator) breeding in the Tri-State area where Montana, Idaho, and Wyoming come together has declined to just a few hundred pairs. However, these birds are part of the Rocky Mountain Population which additionally has over 3,500 birds breeding in Alberta, British Columbia, Northwest Territories, and Yukon Territory. To a large degree, these birds seem to have abandoned traditional migratory pathways in the flyway. Waterfowl managers have been interested in decision support tools that would help them explore simulated management scenarios in their quest towards reaching population recovery and the reestablishment of traditional migratory pathways. I have developed a decision support system to assist biologists with such management, especially related to wetland ecology. Decision support systems use a combination of models, analytical techniques, and information retrieval to help develop and evaluate appropriate alternatives. Swan management is a domain that is ecologically complex, and this complexity is compounded by spatial and temporal issues. As such, swan management is an inherently distributed problem. Therefore, the ecological context for modeling swan movements in response to management actions was built as a multiagent system of interacting intelligent agents that implements a queuing model representing swan migration. These agents accessed ecological knowledge about swans, their habitats, and flyway management principles from three independent expert systems. The agents were autonomous, had some sensory capability, and could respond to changing conditions. A key problem when developing ecological decision support systems is empirically determining that the recommendations provided are valid. Because Rocky Mountain trumpeter swans have been surveyed for a long period of time, I was able to compare simulated distributions provided by the system with actual field observations across 20 areas for the period 1988-2000. Applying the Matched Pairs Multivariate Permutation Test as a statistical tool was a new approach for comparing flyway distributions of waterfowl over time that seemed to work well. Based on this approach, the empirical evidence that I gathered led me to conclude that the base queuing model does accurately simulate swan distributions in the flyway. The system was insensitive to almost all model parameters tested. That remains perplexing, but might result from the base queuing model, itself, being particularly effective at representing the actual ecological diversity in the world of Rocky Mountain trumpeter swans, both spatial and temporally.

Idaho, Montana, Utah, Wyoming↗

USGS2023

Monitoring long-term changes in forage fish distribution, abundance and body condition in Prince William Sound

Identifying drivers of change in forage fish populations is key to understanding recovery potential for piscivorous species injured by the Exxon Valdez oil spill, and ecosystem response to natural and anthropogenic perturbations. Forage fish are small pelagic schooling fish such as Pacific capelin (Mallotus catervarius), Pacific sand lance (Ammodytes personatus), Pacific herring (Clupea pallasii), and juvenile walleye pollock (Gadus chalcogrammus) that are prey of many marine predators. Krill (Euphausiidae) are also an important prey taxa sampled in this study. The goals of the Gulf Watch Alaska forage fish monitoring project are to provide information on the population trends of forage species in the Gulf of Alaska and to better understand how underlying predator-prey interactions influence recovering species and the pelagic ecology of Prince William Sound. The main sampling components of the program include acoustic-trawl surveys for forage fish in Prince William Sound during the Fall Integrated Predator-Prey survey (September), and seabird diet sampling at Middleton Island during spring/summer (April – August). We also validate aerial surveys conducted by the Herring Research and Monitoring program (June), and sample summer spawning capelin and sand lance (July) for condition analyses. This work has provided information important to understanding ecosystem response to perturbations in the northern Gulf of Alaska.

Alaska↗

USGS2011

Evaluating interactions between river otters and muskrats at bridge crossings in Kentucky

hreatened or endangered. Muskrat populations have been reduced in some streams where North American river otters (Lontra canadensis) were reintroduced, and it has been hypothesized that otter reintroduction could be used as a tool for conservation of mussels. We used occupancy estimation methods to evaluate the ecological relationship between muskrats and otters by collecting presence–absence data based on field sign found at bridge crossings in eastern and central Kentucky. Mean detection probabilities (ps) and occupancy probabilities (ψs) for muskrats were 0.692 (SE = 0.045) and 0.723 (SE = 0.071) and for otters were 0.623 (SE = 0.036) and 0.662 (SE = 0.069), respectively. Otter occupancy was related negatively to distance from release sites, which suggests that the otter population is still expanding its range. A 2-species interaction model indicated that the occupancy by muskrats and river otters was independent, and we conclude that river otter reintroduction would not be an effective strategy for conserving mussels.

Journal of Mammalogy↗

USGS2015

Evaluating and ranking threats to the long-term persistence of polar bears

The polar bear ( Ursus maritimus ) was listed as a globally threatened species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) in 2008, mostly due to the significant threat to their future population viability from rapidly declining Arctic sea ice. A core mandate of the ESA is the development of a recovery plan that identifies steps to maintain viable populations of a listed species. A substantive evaluation of the relative influence of putative threats to population persistence is helpful to recovery planning. Because management actions must often be taken in the face of substantial information gaps, a formalized evaluation hypothesizing potential stressors and their relationships with population persistence can improve identification of relevant conservation actions. To this end, we updated a Bayesian network model previously used to forecast the future status of polar bears worldwide. We used new information on actual and predicted sea ice loss and polar bear responses to evaluate the relative influence of plausible threats and their mitigation through management actions on the persistence of polar bears in four ecoregions. We found that polar bear outcomes worsened over time through the end of the century under both stabilized and unabated greenhouse gas (GHG) emission pathways. Under the unabated pathway (i.e., RCP 8.5), the time it took for polar bear populations in two of four ecoregions to reach a dominant probability of greatly decreased was hastened by about 25 years. Under the stabilized GHG emission pathway (i.e., RCP 4.5), where GHG emissions peak around the year 2040, the polar bear population in the Archipelago Ecoregion of High Arctic Canada never reached a dominant probability of greatly decreased, reinforcing earlier suggestions of this ecoregion’s potential to serve as a long-term refugium. The most influential drivers of adverse polar bear outcomes were declines to overall sea ice conditions and to the marine prey base. Improved sea ice conditions substantively lowered the probability of a decreased or greatly decreased outcome, while an elevated marine prey base was slightly less influential in lowering the probability of a decreased or greatly decreased outcome. Stressors associated with in situ human activities exerted considerably less influence on population outcomes. Reduced mortality from hunting and defense of life and property interactions resulted inmodest declines in the probability of a decreased or greatly decreased population outcome. Minimizing other stressors such as trans-Arctic shipping, oil and gas exploration, and point-source pollution had negligible effects on polar bear outcomes, but that could be attributed to uncertainties in the ecological relevance of those specific stressors. Our findings suggest adverse consequences of loss of sea ice habitat become more pronounced as the summer ice-free period lengthens beyond 4 months, which could occur in portions of the Arctic by the middle of this century under the unabated pathway. The long-term persistence of polar bears may be achieved through ameliorating the loss of sea ice habitat, which will likely require stabilizing CO 2 emissions at or below the ceiling represented by RCP 4.5. Management of other stressors may serve to slow the transition of polar bear populations to progressively worsened outcomes, and improve the prospects of persistence, pending GHG mitigation.

Open-File Report↗

USGS1988

Assessment of sampling stability in ecological applications of discriminant analysis

A simulation study was undertaken to assess the sampling stability of the variable loadings in linear discriminant function analysis. A factorial design was used for the factors of multivariate dimensionality, dispersion structure, configuration of group means, and sample size. A total of 32 400 discriminant analyses were conducted, based on data from simulated populations with appropriate underlying statistical distributions. Results from the simulations suggest that minimum sample sizes must exceed multivariate dimensionality by at least a factor of three to achieve reasonable levels of stability in discriminant function loadings. However, the requisite sample size would vary with respect to each of the design factors and, especially, with the overall amount of system variation. A review of 60 published studies and 142 individual analyses indicated that sample sizes in ecological studies often have met that requirement. However, individual group sample sizes frequently were very unequal, and checks of assumptions usually were not reported. We recommend that ecologists obtain group sample sizes that are at least three times as large as the number of variables measured.

Ecology↗

USGS1995

Seabirds in Alaska

About 100 million seabirds reside in marine waters of Alaska during some part of the year. Perhaps half this population is composed of 50 species of nonbreeding residents, visitors, and breeding species that use marine habitats only seasonally (Gould et al. 1982). Another 30 species include 40-60 million individuals that breed in Alaska and spend most of their lives in U.S. territorial waters (Sowls et al. 1978). Alaskan populations account for more than 95% of the breeding seabirds in the continental United States, and eight species nest nowhere else in North America (USFWS 1992). Seabird nest sites include rock ledges, open ground, underground burrows, and crevices in cliffs or talus. Seabirds take a variety of prey from the ocean, including krill, small fish, and squid. Suitable nest sites and oceanic prey are the most important factors controlling the natural distribution and abundance of seabirds. The impetus for seabird monitoring is based partly on public concern for the welfare of these birds, which are affected by a variety of human activities like oil pollution and commercial fishing. Equally important is the role seabirds serve as indicators of ecological change in the marine environment. Seabirds are long-lived and slow to mature, so parameters such as breeding success, diet, or survival rates often give earlier signals of changing environmental conditions that population size itself. Seabird survival data are of interest because they reflect conditions affecting seabirds in the nonbreeding season, when most annual mortality occurs. Techniques for monitoring seabird populations vary according to habitat types and the breeding behavior of individual species (Hatch and Hatch 1978, 1989; Byrd et al. 1983). An affordable monitoring program can include but a few of the 1,300 seabird colonies identified in Alaska, and since the mid-1970's, monitoring effotrts have emphasized a small selection of surface-feeding and diving species, primarily kittiwakes ( Rissa spp.) and murres ( Uria spp.). Little or no information on trends is available for other seabirds (Hatch 1993a). The existing monitoring program occurs largely on sites within the Alaska Maritime National Wildlife Refuge, which was established primarily for the conservation of marine birds. Data are collected by refuge staff, other state and federal agencies, private organizations, university faculty, and students.

Alaska↗