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Groundwater-quality data in the Western San Joaquin Valley study unit, 2010 - Results from the California GAMA Program

Groundwater quality in the approximately 2,170-square-mile Western San Joaquin Valley (WSJV) study unit was investigated by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) from March to July 2010, as part of the California State Water Resources Control Board (SWRCB) Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) Program's Priority Basin Project (PBP). The GAMA-PBP was developed in response to the California Groundwater Quality Monitoring Act of 2001 and is being conducted in collaboration with the SWRCB and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL). The WSJV study unit was the twenty-ninth study unit to be sampled as part of the GAMA-PBP. The GAMA Western San Joaquin Valley study was designed to provide a spatially unbiased assessment of untreated-groundwater quality in the primary aquifer system, and to facilitate statistically consistent comparisons of untreated groundwater quality throughout California. The primary aquifer system is defined as parts of aquifers corresponding to the perforation intervals of wells listed in the California Department of Public Health (CDPH) database for the WSJV study unit. Groundwater quality in the primary aquifer system may differ from the quality in the shallower or deeper water-bearing zones; shallow groundwater may be more vulnerable to surficial contamination. In the WSJV study unit, groundwater samples were collected from 58 wells in 2 study areas (Delta-Mendota subbasin and Westside subbasin) in Stanislaus, Merced, Madera, Fresno, and Kings Counties. Thirty-nine of the wells were selected by using a spatially distributed, randomized grid-based method to provide statistical representation of the study unit (grid wells), and 19 wells were selected to aid in the understanding of aquifer-system flow and related groundwater-quality issues (understanding wells). The groundwater samples were analyzed for organic constituents (volatile organic compounds [VOCs], low-level fumigants, and pesticides and pesticide degradates), constituents of special interest (perchlorate, N -nitrosodimethylamine [NDMA], and 1,2,3-trichloropropane [1,2,3-TCP]), and naturally occurring inorganic constituents (trace elements, nutrients, dissolved organic carbon [DOC], major and minor ions, silica, total dissolved solids [TDS], alkalinity, total arsenic and iron [unfiltered] and arsenic, chromium, and iron species [filtered]). Isotopic tracers (stable isotopes of hydrogen, oxygen, and boron in water, stable isotopes of nitrogen and oxygen in dissolved nitrate, stable isotopes of sulfur in dissolved sulfate, isotopic ratios of strontium in water, stable isotopes of carbon in dissolved inorganic carbon, activities of tritium, and carbon-14 abundance), dissolved standard gases (methane, carbon dioxide, nitrogen, oxygen, and argon), and dissolved noble gases (argon, helium-4, krypton, neon, and xenon) were measured to help identify sources and ages of sampled groundwater. In total, 245 constituents and 8 water-quality indicators were measured. Quality-control samples (blanks, replicates, or matrix spikes) were collected at 16 percent of the wells in the WSJV study unit, and the results for these samples were used to evaluate the quality of the data from the groundwater samples. Blanks rarely contained detectable concentrations of any constituent, suggesting that contamination from sample collection procedures was not a significant source of bias in the data for the groundwater samples. Replicate samples all were within acceptable limits of variability. Matrix-spike recoveries were within the acceptable range (70 to 130 percent) for approximately 87 percent of the compounds. This study did not evaluate the quality of water delivered to consumers. After withdrawal, groundwater typically is treated, disinfected, and (or) blended with other waters to maintain water quality. Regulatory benchmarks apply to water that is delivered to the consumer, not to untreated groundwater. However, to provide some context for the results, concentrations of constituents measured in the untreated groundwater were compared with regulatory and non-regulatory health-based benchmarks established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) and CDPH, and to non-regulatory benchmarks established for aesthetic concerns by CDPH. Comparisons between data collected for this study and benchmarks for drinking water are for illustrative purposes only and are not indicative of compliance or non-compliance with those benchmarks. Most inorganic constituents detected in groundwater samples from the 39 grid wells were detected at concentrations less than health-based benchmarks. Detections of organic and special-interest constituents from grid wells sampled in the WSJV study unit also were less than health-based benchmarks. In total, VOCs were detected in 12 of the 39 grid wells sampled (approximately 31 percent), pesticides and pesticide degradates were detected in 9 grid wells (approximately 23 percent), and perchlorate was detected in 15 grid wells (approximately 38 percent). Trace elements, major and minor ions, and nutrients were sampled for at 39 grid wells; most concentrations were less than health-based benchmarks. Exceptions include two detections of arsenic greater than the USEPA maximum contaminant level (MCL-US) of 10 micrograms per liter (μg/L), 20 detections of boron greater than the CDPH notification level (NL-CA) of 1,000 μg/L, 2 detections of molybdenum greater than the USEPA lifetime health advisory level (HAL-US) of 40 μg/L, 1 detection of selenium greater than the MCL-US of 50 μg/L, 2 detections of strontium greater than the HAL-US of 4,000 μg/L, and 3 detections of nitrate greater than the MCL-US of 10 μg/L. Results for inorganic constituents with non-health-based benchmarks (iron, manganese, chloride, sulfate, and TDS) showed that iron concentrations greater than the CDPH secondary maximum contaminant level (SMCL-CA) of 300 μg/L were detected in five grid wells. Manganese concentrations greater than the SMCL-CA of 50 μg/L were detected in 16 grid wells. Chloride concentrations greater than the recommended SMCL-CA benchmark of 250 milligrams per liter (mg/L) were detected in 14 grid wells, and concentrations in 5 of these wells also were greater than the upper SMCL-CA benchmark of 500 mg/L. Sulfate concentrations greater than the recommended SMCL-CA benchmark of 250 mg/L were measured in 21 grid wells, and concentrations in 13 of these wells also were greater than the SMCL-CA upper benchmark of 500 mg/L. TDS concentrations greater than the SMCL-CA recommended benchmark of 500 mg/L were measured in 36 grid wells, and concentrations in 20 of these wells also were greater than the SMCL-CA upper benchmark of 1,000 mg/L.

California↗

A proposed streamflow data program for Ohio

A streamflow data program is proposed for Ohio which consists of both data collection and data analysis. The program is proposed after a study which (1) established long-term objectives and goals for streamflow information, (2) examined and analyzed available data to determine its adequacy for meeting the established goals, and (3) considered alternate methods and data requirements for providing information to meet unfulfilled goals. The program is designed to provide data (1) for current use, (2) for planning and design, (3) for definition of long-term trends, and (4) on the characteristics of stream environment. At present 141 gaging stations provide adequate data for current use. Multiple- regression relations have been defined that accurately estimate many flow characteristics needed for planning and design on natural-flow streams. A systems approach is required to define flow characteristics of regulated streams. A network of 13 existing gages is proposed for indefinite operation to define long-term flow trends, and additional data collection is proposed on the characteristics of stream environment. Studies of available data and of data to become available are suggested. The proposed program may be modified in the future to reflect the degree of information that becomes available from new and improved data analyses.

Ohio↗

Instream flow characterization of upper Salmon River Basin streams, Central Idaho, 2003

Anadromous fish populations in the Columbia River Basin have plummeted in the last 100 years. This severe decline led to Federal listing of chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) and steelhead trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) stocks as endangered or threatened under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) in the 1990s. Historically, the upper Salmon River Basin (upstream from the confluence with the Pahsimeroi River) in Idaho provided migration corridors and significant habitat for these ESA-listed species, in addition to the federally listed bull trout ( Salvelinus confluentus ). Human development has modified the original streamflow conditions in many streams in the upper Salmon River Basin. Summer streamflow modifications, as a result of irrigation practices, have directly affected the quantity and quality of fish habitat and also have affected migration and (or) access to suitable spawning and rearing habitat for these fish. As a result of these ESA listings and Action 149 of the Federal Columbia River Power System Biological Opinion of 2000, the Bureau of Reclamation was tasked to conduct streamflow characterization studies in the upper Salmon River Basin to clearly define habitat requirements for effective species management and habitat restoration. These studies include the collection of habitat and streamflow information for the Physical Habitat Simulation (PHABSIM) model, a widely applied method to determine relations between habitat and discharge requirements for various fish species and life stages. Model results can be used by resource managers to guide habitat restoration efforts in the evaluation of potential fish habitat and passage improvements by increasing streamflow. Instream flow characterization studies were completed on Pole, Fourth of July, Elk, and Valley Creeks during 2003. Continuous streamflow data were collected upstream from all diversions on each stream. In addition, natural summer streamflows were estimated for each study site using regression equations. PHABSIM results are presented for bull trout, chinook salmon, and steelhead trout over a range of summer streamflows. Habitat/discharge relations are summarized for juvenile, adult, and spawning life stages at each study site. Adult fish passage and discharge relations are evaluated at specific transects identified as a potential low-streamflow passage barrier at each study site. Continuous summer water temperature data for selected study sites also are summarized and compared with Idaho Water Quality Standards and various temperature requirements of targeted fish species. Results of these habitat studies can be used to prioritize and direct cost-effective actions to improve fish habitat for ESA-listed anadromous and native fish species in the basin. These actions may include acquiring water during critical low-flow periods by leasing or modifying irrigation delivery systems to minimize out-of-stream diversions.

Idaho↗

Median and low-flow characteristics for streams under natural and diverted conditions, northeast Maui, Hawaii

Flow-duration statistics under natural (undiverted) and diverted flow conditions were estimated for gaged and ungaged sites on 21 streams in northeast Maui, Hawaii. The estimates were made using the optimal combination of continuous-record gaging-station data, low-flow measurements, and values determined from regression equations developed as part of this study. Estimated 50- and 95-percent flow duration statistics for streams are presented and the analyses done to develop and evaluate the methods used in estimating the statistics are described. Estimated streamflow statistics are presented for sites where various amounts of streamflow data are available as well as for locations where no data are available. Daily mean flows were used to determine flow-duration statistics for continuous-record stream-gaging stations in the study area following U.S. Geological Survey established standard methods. Duration discharges of 50- and 95-percent were determined from total flow and base flow for each continuous-record station. The index-station method was used to adjust all of the streamflow records to a common, long-term period. The gaging station on West Wailuaiki Stream (16518000) was chosen as the index station because of its record length (1914-2003) and favorable geographic location. Adjustments based on the index-station method resulted in decreases to the 50-percent duration total flow, 50-percent duration base flow, 95-percent duration total flow, and 95-percent duration base flow computed on the basis of short-term records that averaged 7, 3, 4, and 1 percent, respectively. For the drainage basin of each continuous-record gaged site and selected ungaged sites, morphometric, geologic, soil, and rainfall characteristics were quantified using Geographic Information System techniques. Regression equations relating the non-diverted streamflow statistics to basin characteristics of the gaged basins were developed using ordinary-least-squares regression analyses. Rainfall rate, maximum basin elevation, and the elongation ratio of the basin were the basin characteristics used in the final regression equations for 50-percent duration total flow and base flow. Rainfall rate and maximum basin elevation were used in the final regression equations for the 95-percent duration total flow and base flow. The relative errors between observed and estimated flows ranged from 10 to 20 percent for the 50-percent duration total flow and base flow, and from 29 to 56 percent for the 95-percent duration total flow and base flow. The regression equations developed for this study were used to determine the 50-percent duration total flow, 50-percent duration base flow, 95-percent duration total flow, and 95-percent duration base flow at selected ungaged diverted and undiverted sites. Estimated streamflow, prediction intervals, and standard errors were determined for 48 ungaged sites in the study area and for three gaged sites west of the study area. Relative errors were determined for sites where measured values of 95-percent duration discharge of total flow were available. East of Keanae Valley, the 95-percent duration discharge equation generally underestimated flow, and within and west of Keanae Valley, the equation generally overestimated flow. Reduction in 50- and 95-percent flow-duration values in stream reaches affected by diversions throughout the study area average 58 to 60 percent.

Hawaii↗

Surface gamma-ray survey of the Barre West quadrangle, Washington and Orange Counties, Vermont

This study was designed to determine the levels of naturally occurring radioactivity in bedrock from surface measurements at outcrops during the course of 1:24,000-scale geologic mapping and to determine which rock types were potential sources of radionuclides. Elevated levels of total alpha particle radiation (gross alpha) occur in a public water system in Montpelier, Vermont. Measured gross alpha levels in the Murray Hill water system (Vermont Dept. of Environmental Conservation, unpub. data, 2005) have exceeded the maximum contaminant level of 15 picocuries per liter (pCi/l) set by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) (EPA, 2000). The Murray Hill system began treatment for radium in 1999. Although this treatment was successful, annual monitoring for gross alpha, radium, and uranium continues as required (Jon Kim, written communication, 2005). The water system utilizes a drilled bedrock well located in the Silurian-Devonian Waits River Formation. Kim (2002) summarized radioactivity data for Vermont, and aside from a statewide assessment of radon in public water systems (Manning and Ladue, 1986) and a single flight line from the National Uranium Resource Evaluation (NURE) (Texas Instruments, 1976) (fig. 1), no data are available to identify the potential sources of naturally occurring radioactivity in the local bedrock. Airborne gamma-ray surveys are typically used for large areas (Duval, 2001, 2002), and ground-based surveys are more commonly used for local site assessments. For example, ground-based surveys have been used for fault mapping (Iwata and others, 2001), soil mapping (Roberts and others, 2003), environmental assessments (Stromswold and Arthur, 1996), and mineral exploration (Jubeli and others, 1998). Duval (1980) summarized the methods and applications of gamma- ray spectrometry. In this study, we present the results from a ground-based gamma-ray survey of bedrock outcrops in the 7.5-minute Barre West quadrangle, Vermont. Other related and ongoing studies in the area are addressing potential mineral sources of radionuclides (Satkoski and Walsh, 2004; Satkoski and others, 2005), radionuclides in ground water (Kim and others, 2005), and bedrock geology.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Estimation of low-flow statistics at ungaged sites on streams in the Lower Hudson River Basin, New York, from data in geographic information systems

A variety of watershed properties available in 2015 from geographic information systems were tested in regression equations to estimate two commonly used statistical indices of the low flow of streams, namely the lowest flows averaged over 7 consecutive days that have a 1 in 10 and a 1 in 2 chance of not being exceeded in any given year (7-day, 10-year and 7-day, 2-year low flows). The equations were based on streamflow measurements in 51 watersheds in the Lower Hudson River Basin of New York during the years 1958–1978, when the number of streamflow measurement sites on unregulated streams was substantially greater than in subsequent years. These low-flow indices are chiefly a function of the area of surficial sand and gravel in the watershed; more precisely, 7-day, 10-year and 7-day, 2-year low flows both increase in proportion to the area of sand and gravel deposited by glacial meltwater, whereas 7-day, 2-year low flows also increase in proportion to the area of postglacial alluvium. Both low-flow statistics are also functions of mean annual runoff (a measure of net water input to the watershed from precipitation) and area of swamps and poorly drained soils in or adjacent to surficial sand and gravel (where groundwater recharge is unlikely and riparian water loss to evapotranspiration is substantial). Small but significant refinements in estimation accuracy resulted from the inclusion of two indices of stream geometry, channel slope and length, in the regression equations. Most of the regression analysis was undertaken with the ordinary least squares method, but four equations were replicated by using weighted least squares to provide a more realistic appraisal of the precision of low-flow estimates. The most accurate estimation equations tested in this study explain nearly 84 and 87 percent of the variation in 7-day, 10-year and 7-day, 2-year low flows, respectively, with standard errors of 0.032 and 0.050 cubic feet per second per square mile. The equations use natural values of streamflow and watershed properties; logarithmic transformations yielded less accurate equations inconsistent with some conceptualized relationships.

New York↗

Hydrology-driven chemical loads transported by the Green River to the Lower Duwamish Waterway near Seattle, Washington, 2013–17

The sediments in the Lower Duwamish Waterway Superfund site in Seattle, Washington, are contaminated with chemicals including metals such as arsenic, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), carcinogenic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (cPAHs), and dioxins/furans from decades of intense anthropogenic activities. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Washington State Department of Ecology, collected new data from 2013 to 2017 to estimate sediment and chemical loads transported by the Green/Duwamish River to the Lower Duwamish Waterway Superfund site (the final 8-kilometer reach of the river) in support of sediment remediation within the site. Chemical loads were calculated as the product of river suspended-sediment loads and suspended sediment-bound chemical concentrations measured at river kilometer 16.7. Using four different approaches, annual suspended sediment-bound chemical load estimates transported by the river to the Lower Duwamish Waterway were in the range of 1,120–1,470 kilograms arsenic, 2,810–8,200 grams (g) toxic equivalent cPAHs, 205–407 milligrams toxic equivalent dioxins/furans, and 340–1,180 g PCBs. Storm events contributed a disproportionately large amount of the load of anthropogenic organic compounds such as cPAHs (54 percent), dioxins/furans (44 percent), and PCBs (52 percent) as compared to overall time (17 percent). Chemical concentrations and load estimates often were underestimated using results from unfiltered water analysis only, especially in samples with high suspended-sediment concentrations and for hydrophobic organic chemicals such as cPAHs that prefer to sorb to particulates and are at low concentrations near or below the analytical limits of water methods. For metals and PCBs, the dissolved concentration was relatively low and consistent between sampling events, whereas the suspended sediment-bound chemical concentrations contributed most of the chemical concentration in the water column during periods of high river suspended-sediment concentrations. However, the dissolved fraction, on average, contributed more than one-third of the estimated total chemical load in the river system for arsenic and PCBs, even given the hydrophobic nature of the chemicals. These results suggest that the sum of the chemical concentrations measured on two separate fractions—the particulate fraction and the dissolved fraction—more fully represents the total chemical concentration as compared to analysis of an unfiltered water sample, especially in samples with high suspended-sediment concentrations. Most of the suspended-sediment load (97 percent) and sediment-bound chemical load (92–94 percent) occurred during the wet winter half of the year from October 15 to April 14. However, the highest sediment-bound chemical concentrations often occurred during short intense storms or “first flush” autumn runoff events during the dry summer half of the year from April 15 to October 14. Because of the highly variable and dynamic river system characteristics (including precipitation, discharge, sediment concentration, and tidal fluctuations), it is critical to characterize the occurrence, frequency, concentrations, and loads during extreme conditions (for example, when the river is affected by storm-derived runoff) rather than time-averaged conditions. These short extreme events have a high potential for acute effects on ecological and human health, and may have a great influence on the effectiveness of the sediment remediation activities that are underway in the Lower Duwamish Waterway.

Washington↗

Chlorophyll a in lakes and streams of the United States (2005–2022)

The concentration of chlorophyll a in phytoplankton and periphyton represents the amount of algal biomass. We compiled an 18-year record (2005–2022) of pigment data from water bodies across the United States (US) to support efforts to develop process-based, machine learning, and remote sensing models for prediction of harmful algal blooms (HABs). To our knowledge, this dataset of nearly 84,000 sites and over 1,374,000 pigment measurements is the largest compilation of harmonized discrete, laboratory-extracted chlorophyll data for the US. These data were compiled from the Water Quality Portal (WQP) and previously unpublished U.S. Geological Survey’s National Water Quality Laboratory (NWQL) data. Data were harmonized for reporting units, pigment type, duplicate values, collection depth, site name, negative values, and some extreme values. Across the country, data show great variation by state in sampling frequency, distribution, and methods. Uses for such data include the calibration of models, calibration of field sensors, examination of relationship to nutrients and other drivers, evaluation of temporal trends, and other applications addressing local to national scale concerns.

Nature Scientific Data↗

Adjusted peak-flow frequency estimates for selected streamflow-gaging stations in or near Montana based on data through water year 2011: Chapter D in Montana StreamStats

The climatic conditions of the specific time period during which peak-flow data were collected at a given streamflow-gaging station (hereinafter referred to as gaging station) can substantially affect how well the peak-flow frequency (hereinafter referred to as frequency) results represent long-term hydrologic conditions. Differences in the timing of the periods of record can result in substantial inconsistencies in frequency estimates for hydrologically similar gaging stations. Potential for inconsistency increases with decreasing peak-flow record length. The representativeness of the frequency estimates for a short-term gaging station can be adjusted by various methods including weighting the at-site results in association with frequency estimates from regional regression equations (RREs) by using the Weighted Independent Estimates (WIE) program. Also, for gaging stations that cannot be adjusted by using the WIE program because of regulation or drainage areas too large for application of RREs, frequency estimates might be improved by using record extension procedures, including a mixed-station analysis using the maintenance of variance type I (MOVE.1) procedure. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Montana Department of Transportation and the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation, completed a study to provide adjusted frequency estimates for selected gaging stations through water year 2011. The purpose of Chapter D of this Scientific Investigations Report is to present adjusted frequency estimates for 504 selected streamflow-gaging stations in or near Montana based on data through water year 2011. Estimates of peak-flow magnitudes for the 66.7-, 50-, 42.9-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities are reported. These annual exceedance probabilities correspond to the 1.5-, 2-, 2.33-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year recurrence intervals, respectively. The at-site frequency estimates were adjusted by weighting with frequency estimates from RREs using the WIE program for 438 selected gaging stations in Montana. These 438 selected gaging stations (1) had periods of record less than or equal to 40 years, (2) represented unregulated or minor regulation conditions, and (3) had drainage areas less than about 2,750 square miles. The weighted-average frequency estimates obtained by weighting with RREs generally are considered to provide improved frequency estimates. In some cases, there are substantial differences among the at-site frequency estimates, the regression-equation frequency estimates, and the weighted-average frequency estimates. In these cases, thoughtful consideration should be applied when selecting the appropriate frequency estimate. Some factors that might be considered when selecting the appropriate frequency estimate include (1) whether the specific gaging station has peak-flow characteristics that distinguish it from most other gaging stations used in developing the RREs for the hydrologic region; and (2) the length of the peak-flow record and the general climatic characteristics during the period when the peak-flow data were collected. For critical structure-design applications, a conservative approach would be to select the higher of the at-site frequency estimate and the weighted-average frequency estimate. The mixed-station MOVE.1 procedure generally was applied in cases where three or more gaging stations were located on the same large river and some of the gaging stations could not be adjusted using the weighted-average method because of regulation or drainage areas too large for application of RREs. The mixed-station MOVE.1 procedure was applied to 66 selected gaging stations on 19 large rivers. The general approach for using mixed-station record extension procedures to adjust at-site frequencies involved (1) determining appropriate base periods for the gaging stations on the large rivers, (2) synthesizing peak-flow data for the gaging stations with incomplete peak-flow records during the base periods by using the mixed-station MOVE.1 procedure, and (3) conducting frequency analysis on the combined recorded and synthesized peak-flow data for each gaging station. Frequency estimates for the combined recorded and synthesized datasets for 66 gaging stations with incomplete peak-flow records during the base periods are presented. The uncertainties in the mixed-station record extension results are difficult to directly quantify; thus, it is important to understand the intended use of the estimated frequencies based on analysis of the combined recorded and synthesized datasets. The estimated frequencies are considered general estimates of frequency relations among gaging stations on the same stream channel that might be expected if the gaging stations had been gaged during the same long-term base period. However, because the mixed-station record extension procedures involve secondary statistical analysis with accompanying errors, the uncertainty of the frequency estimates is larger than would be obtained by collecting systematic records for the same number of years in the base period.

Montana↗

Evaluating response distances to develop buffer zones for staging terns

Buffer zones, calculated by flight‐initiation distance (FID), are often used to reduce anthropogenic disturbances to wildlife, but FID can vary significantly across life‐history stages. We examined the behavioral effect of potential natural (gulls and shorebirds) and anthropogenic (pedestrians) disturbance sources to staging roseate ( Sterna dougallii ) and common tern ( S. hirundo ) flocks from July to September in 2014 and 2015 at Cape Cod, Massachusetts, USA. We estimated the proportion of the flock exhibiting different responses to potential disturbance sources as a function of distance, flock size, percent roseate terns, and local disturbance rates, using Bayesian zero‐and‐one inflated beta regression. The proportion of tern flocks responding to the presence of shorebirds by flying was low (0.01 ± 0.001 [SE]) and did not vary by distance or other covariates, whereas the proportion flying in response to gulls increased as distance decreased, with smaller flocks, and with flocks with a larger proportion of roseate terns being more sensitive to gull presence. Prolonged flight response rapidly increased in probability from 0.0 to as much as 1.0 as distance from pedestrians to the flock decreased from 100 m and was much more likely with smaller flocks. Pedestrian activity levels also had an effect on flock responses; those engaged in active behaviors such as jogging were more likely to cause flushing than those engaged in passive behaviors. Terns seemed to view pedestrians as more of a threat than shorebirds and gulls, even though gulls are frequent kleptoparasites of terns. Pedestrians >120 m from a tern flock generally elicited the same probability of flight response as shorebirds and gulls. We recommend managers maintain anthropogenic disturbance levels at or below the intensity of those from natural sources at sites where recreation and wildlife values are both important. Because staging tern flocks may use a variety of areas within a site, we recommend instituting a 100‐m buffer around areas potentially used by staging flocks at Cape Cod, where we studied every location roseate terns are known to use in large numbers. For other sites used by mixed‐species tern flocks, we recommend the use of our field and analytical methods to develop appropriate buffer distances that will keep pedestrians far enough away to reduce the likelihood of flight and other non‐locomotive anti‐predator behaviors. These buffer zones will also benefit other species sensitive to human activity.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

Multiple estimates of effective population size for monitoring a long-lived vertebrate: An application to Yellowstone grizzly bears

Effective population size ( N e ) is a key parameter for monitoring the genetic health of threatened populations because it reflects a population's evolutionary potential and risk of extinction due to genetic stochasticity. However, its application to wildlife monitoring has been limited because it is difficult to measure in natural populations. The isolated and well-studied population of grizzly bears ( Ursus arctos ) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem provides a rare opportunity to examine the usefulness of different N e estimators for monitoring. We genotyped 729 Yellowstone grizzly bears using 20 microsatellites and applied three single-sample estimators to examine contemporary trends in generation interval (GI), effective number of breeders ( N b ) and N e during 1982–2007. We also used multisample methods to estimate variance ( N eV ) and inbreeding N e ( N eI ). Single-sample estimates revealed positive trajectories, with over a fourfold increase in N e (≈100 to 450) and near doubling of the GI (≈8 to 14) from the 1980s to 2000s. N eV (240–319) and N eI (256) were comparable with the harmonic mean single-sample N e (213) over the time period. Reanalysing historical data, we found N eV increased from ≈80 in the 1910s–1960s to ≈280 in the contemporary population. The estimated ratio of effective to total census size ( N e /N c ) was stable and high (0.42–0.66) compared to previous brown bear studies. These results support independent demographic evidence for Yellowstone grizzly bear population growth since the 1980s. They further demonstrate how genetic monitoring of N e can complement demographic-based monitoring of N c and vital rates, providing a valuable tool for wildlife managers.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗

Evaluation of threatened, endangered, and rare fish species and communities of the St. Lawrence River and its tributaries in the United States

Biodiversity is responsible for important ecological processes like productivity and ecosystem stability, and rare species are a major component of biodiversity. Rarity increases a species' vulnerability to disturbances and also makes them difficult to study. Globally, species of freshwater systems are some of the most threatened, and evaluation of rare freshwater species and their habitats is needed to help preserve natural flexibility and ecological function. We conducted an analysis of full fish communities of the upper St. Lawrence River and its major US tributaries, with the goals of determining species locations and abundances, associated environmental conditions, the distribution of distinct fish assemblages across the landscape (with emphasis on communities supporting rare species), and potential threats. From 2009 to 2015, the US Geological Survey (USGS) and Saint Regis Mohawk Tribe (SRMT) worked together using standardized methods to collect community samples within 4 different aquatic realms (shallow and deep lentic, and small and large lotic systems) and determine species-specific fish abundances, frequencies of occurrence, and associated habitat signatures and spatial distributions. Distinct fish assemblages and associated habitat conditions were objectively identified by multivariate and hypothesis-testing methods. We used a geographic information system (GIS) to spatially associate habitat, biotic, and landscape attributes within each stream reach throughout the study area, facilitating quantification of distribution patterns. Comparisons with historical data provided estimates of loss or gain of threatened and endangered species (T&E) colonies. We developed a disturbance index to highlight potential threats to aquatic species. More than 140,000 fishes of 87 species were collected from a total of 1140 sample sites, covering 278 stream reaches, including the endangered Notropis anogenus (Pugnose Shiner), and threatened Hiodon tergisus (Mooneye), Etheostoma pellucidum (Eastern Sand Darter), and Acipenser fulvescens (Lake Sturgeon). We identified 50 distinct fish assemblages differing in species composition, abundance, and/or diversity, but only 13 of those assemblages included a T&E species. The rareness, extent, and patchiness of fish assemblages created a mosaic of fish communities across the landscape, from headwaters to the mainstem of the St. Lawrence River. Comparisons with historic surveys (1978–2008) showed a stable number of T&E species colonies or an increase for some species. The geographic distribution of multimetric disturbance index values showed where combinations of disturbances to fish habitats might affect rare fish species and aquatic communities in the region. The species–habitat associations and fish assemblage distributions can be used for evaluation of species, communities, or habitats that may need protection or restoration.

St. Lawrence River study area↗

Ground-water quality data in the southeast San Joaquin Valley, 2005–2006— Results from the California GAMA program

Ground-water quality in the approximately 3,800 square-mile Southeast San Joaquin Valley study unit (SESJ) was investigated from October 2005 through February 2006 as part of the Priority Basin Assessment Project of Ground-Water Ambient Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) Program. The GAMA Statewide Basin Assessment project was developed in response to the Ground-Water Quality Monitoring Act of 2001 and is being conducted by the California State Water Resources Control Board (SWRCB) in collaboration with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL). The SESJ study was designed to provide a spatially unbiased assessment of raw ground-water quality within SESJ, as well as a statistically consistent basis for comparing water quality throughout California. Samples were collected from 99 wells in Fresno, Tulare, and Kings Counties, 83 of which were selected using a spatially distributed, randomized grid-based method to provide statistical representation of the study area (grid wells), and 16 of which were sampled to evaluate changes in water chemistry along ground-water flow paths or across alluvial fans (understanding wells). The ground-water samples were analyzed for a large number of synthetic organic constituents (volatile organic compounds [VOCs], pesticides and pesticide degradates, and pharmaceutical compounds), constituents of special interest (perchlorate, N-nitrosodimethylamine, and 1,2,3-trichloropropane), naturally occurring inorganic constituents (nutrients, major and minor ions, and trace elements), radioactive constituents, and microbial indicators. Naturally occurring isotopes (tritium, and carbon-14, and stable isotopes of hydrogen, oxygen, nitrogen, and carbon), and dissolved noble gases also were measured to help identify the source and age of the sampled ground water. Quality-control samples (blanks, replicates, samples for matrix spikes) were collected at approximately 10 percent of the wells, and the results for these samples were used to evaluate the quality of the data for the ground-water samples. Assessment of the quality-control data resulted in censoring of less than 1 percent of the detections of constituents measured in ground-water samples. This study did not attempt to evaluate the quality of drinking water delivered to consumers; after withdrawal from the ground, water typically is treated, disinfected, and (or) blended with other waters to maintain acceptable drinking-water quality. Regulatory thresholds apply to the treated water that is served to the consumer, not to raw ground water. However, to provide some context for the results, concentrations of constituents measured in the raw ground water were compared with regulatory and other health-based thresholds established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and California Department of Public Health (CDPH) and thresholds established for aesthetic concerns by CDPH. Two VOCs were detected above health-based thresholds: 1,2-dibromo-3-chloropropane (DBCP), and benzene. DBCP was detected above the U.S. Environmental Protections Agency’s maximum contaminant level (MCL-US) in three grid wells and five understanding wells. Benzene was detected above the CDPH’s maximum contaminant level (MCL-CA) in one grid well. All pesticide detections were below health-based thresholds. Perchlorate was detected above its maximum contaminate level for California in one grid well. Nitrate was detected above the MCL-US in six samples from understanding wells, of which one was a public supply well. Two trace elements were detected above MCLs-US: arsenic and uranium. Arsenic was detected above the MCL-US in four grid wells and two understanding wells; uranium was detected above the MCL-US in one grid well and one understanding well. Gross alpha radiation was detected above MCLs-US in five samples; four of them understanding wells, and uranium isotope activity was greater than the MCL-US for one understanding well. Radon-222 was detected above the proposed MCL-US in all wells sampled. Total coliforms were detected in two wells and somatic coliphage was detected in one well.

California↗

Nutrient Enrichment Study Data from the Upper, Middle, and Lower Sections of the Non-Tidal Delaware River, 2009

The Delaware River Basin Commission is charged with establishing water-quality objectives for the tidal and non-tidal portions of the Delaware River, which include developing nutrient standards that are scientifically defensible. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Delaware River Basin Commission and the Academy of Natural Sciences, studied the effects of nutrient enrichment in the upper, middle, and lower sections of the non-tidal Delaware River. Algal samples were collected from the natural habitat using rock scrapes and from the artificial nutrient enrichment samplers, Matlock periphytometers. The knowledge gained from this study is to be used in helping determine appropriate nutrient criteria for the Delaware River in the oligotrophic, mesotrophic, and eutrophic sections of the river and is a first step toward gathering data that can be used in selecting nutrient effect levels or criteria thresholds for aquatic-life use protection. This report describes the methods for data collection and presents the data collected as part of this study.

Data Series↗

Creating a standardized watersheds database for the lower Rio Grande/Rio Bravo, Texas

This report describes the creation of a large-scale watershed database for the lower Rio Grande/Rio Bravo Basin in Texas. The watershed database includes watersheds delineated to all 1:24,000-scale mapped stream confluences and other hydrologically significant points, selected watershed characteristics, and hydrologic derivative datasets. Computer technology allows generation of preliminary watershed boundaries in a fraction of the time needed for manual methods. This automated process reduces development time and results in quality improvements in watershed boundaries and characteristics. These data can then be compiled in a permanent database, eliminating the time-consuming step of data creation at the beginning of a project and providing a stable base dataset that can give users greater confidence when further subdividing watersheds. A standardized dataset of watershed characteristics is a valuable contribution to the understanding and management of natural resources. Vertical integration of the input datasets used to automatically generate watershed boundaries is crucial to the success of such an effort. The optimum situation would be to use the digital orthophoto quadrangles as the source of all the input datasets. While the hydrographic data from the digital line graphs can be revised to match the digital orthophoto quadrangles, hypsography data cannot be revised to match the digital orthophoto quadrangles. Revised hydrography from the digital orthophoto quadrangle should be used to create an updated digital elevation model that incorporates the stream channels as revised from the digital orthophoto quadrangle. Computer-generated, standardized watersheds that are vertically integrated with existing digital line graph hydrographic data will continue to be difficult to create until revisions can be made to existing source datasets. Until such time, manual editing will be necessary to make adjustments for man-made features and changes in the natural landscape that are not reflected in the digital elevation model data.

Texas↗

Evaluation of machine learning approaches for predicting streamflow metrics across the conterminous United States

Few regional or national scale studies have evaluated machine learning approaches for predicting streamflow metrics at ungaged locations. Most such studies are limited by the number of dimensions of the streamflow regime investigated. This study, in contrast, provides a comprehensive evaluation of the streamflow regime based on three widely available machine learning approaches (support vector regression, random forest, and cubist regression) and on multiple linear regression to predict 106 natural streamflow metrics at ungaged locations. This evaluation is done for 545 streamgages across the northwest United States for recurrence-interval flood metrics and for 1,851 sites in the conterminous United States for non-flood metrics. The results indicate that for flood metrics, predictions by cubist regression and support vector regressions have substantially less error than the other approaches. For all the remaining streamflow metrics, random forest models outperform the other methods.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

A revised logistic regression equation and an automated procedure for mapping the probability of a stream flowing perennially in Massachusetts

A revised logistic regression equation and an automated procedure were developed for mapping the probability of a stream flowing perennially in Massachusetts. The equation provides city and town conservation commissions and the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection a method for assessing whether streams are intermittent or perennial at a specific site in Massachusetts by estimating the probability of a stream flowing perennially at that site. This information could assist the environmental agencies who administer the Commonwealth of Massachusetts Rivers Protection Act of 1996, which establishes a 200-foot-wide protected riverfront area extending from the mean annual high-water line along each side of a perennial stream, with exceptions for some urban areas. The equation was developed by relating the observed intermittent or perennial status of a stream site to selected basin characteristics of naturally flowing streams (defined as having no regulation by dams, surface-water withdrawals, ground-water withdrawals, diversion, wastewater discharge, and so forth) in Massachusetts. This revised equation differs from the equation developed in a previous U.S. Geological Survey study in that it is solely based on visual observations of the intermittent or perennial status of stream sites across Massachusetts and on the evaluation of several additional basin and land-use characteristics as potential explanatory variables in the logistic regression analysis. The revised equation estimated more accurately the intermittent or perennial status of the observed stream sites than the equation from the previous study. Stream sites used in the analysis were identified as intermittent or perennial based on visual observation during low-flow periods from late July through early September 2001. The database of intermittent and perennial streams included a total of 351 naturally flowing (no regulation) sites, of which 85 were observed to be intermittent and 266 perennial. Stream sites included in the database had drainage areas that ranged from 0.04 to 10.96 square miles. Of the 66 stream sites with drainage areas greater than 2.00 square miles, 2 sites were intermittent and 64 sites were perennial. Thus, stream sites with drainage areas greater than 2.00 square miles were assumed to flow perennially, and the database used to develop the logistic regression equation included only those stream sites with drainage areas less than 2.00 square miles. The database for the equation included 285 stream sites that had drainage areas less than 2.00 square miles, of which 83 sites were intermittent and 202 sites were perennial. Results of the logistic regression analysis indicate that the probability of a stream flowing perennially at a specific site in Massachusetts can be estimated as a function of four explanatory variables: (1) drainage area (natural logarithm), (2) areal percentage of sand and gravel deposits, (3) areal percentage of forest land, and (4) region of the state (eastern region or western region). Although the equation provides an objective means of determining the probability of a stream flowing perennially at a specific site, the reliability of the equation is constrained by the data used in its development. The equation is not recommended for (1) losing stream reaches or (2) streams whose ground-water contributing areas do not coincide with their surface-water drainage areas, such as many streams draining the Southeast Coastal Region-the southern part of the South Coastal Basin, the eastern part of the Buzzards Bay Basin, and the entire area of the Cape Cod and the Islands Basins. If the equation were used on a regulated stream site, the estimated intermittent or perennial status would reflect the natural flow conditions for that site. An automated mapping procedure was developed to determine the intermittent or perennial status of stream sites along reaches throughout a basin. The procedure delineates the drainage area boundaries, determines values for the four explanatory variables, and solves the equation for estimating the probability of a stream flowing perennially at two locations on a headwater (first-order) stream reach-one near its confluence or end point and one near its headwaters or start point. The automated procedure then determines the intermittent or perennial status of the reach on the basis of the calculated probability values and a probability cutpoint (a stream is considered to flow perennially at a cutpoint of 0.56 or greater for this study) for the two locations or continues to loop upstream or downstream between locations less than and greater than the cutpoint of 0.56 to determine the transition point from an intermittent to a perennial stream. If the first-order stream reach is determined to be intermittent, the procedure moves to the next downstream reach and repeats the same process. The automated procedure then moves to the next first-order stream and repeats the process until the entire basin is mapped. A map of the intermittent and perennial stream reaches in the Shawsheen River Basin is provided on a CD-ROM that accompanies this report. The CD-ROM also contains ArcReader 9.0, a freeware product, that allows a user to zoom in and out, set a scale, pan, turn on and off map layers (such as a USGS topographic map), and print a map of the stream site with a scale bar. Maps of the intermittent and perennial stream reaches in Massachusetts will provide city and town conservation commissions and the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection with an additional method for assessing the intermittent or perennial status of stream sites.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Paleoflood investigations to improve peak-streamflow regional-regression equations for natural streamflow in eastern Colorado, 2015

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Colorado Department of Transportation, developed regional-regression equations for estimating the 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, 0.2-percent annual exceedance-probability discharge (AEPD) for natural streamflow in eastern Colorado. A total of 188 streamgages, consisting of 6,536 years of record and a mean of approximately 35 years of record per streamgage, were used to develop the peak-streamflow regional-regression equations. The estimated AEPDs for each streamgage were computed using the USGS software program PeakFQ. The AEPDs were determined using systematic data through water year 2013. Based on previous studies conducted in Colorado and neighboring States and on the availability of data, 72 characteristics (57 basin and 15 climatic characteristics) were evaluated as candidate explanatory variables in the regression analysis. Paleoflood and non-exceedance bound ages were established based on reconnaissance-level methods. Multiple lines of evidence were used at each streamgage to arrive at a conclusion (age estimate) to add a higher degree of certainty to reconnaissance-level estimates. Paleoflood or nonexceedance bound evidence was documented at 41 streamgages, and 3 streamgages had previously collected paleoflood data.To determine the peak discharge of a paleoflood or non-exceedanc bound, two different hydraulic models were used. The mean standard error of prediction ( SEP ) for all 8 AEPDs was reduced approximately 25 percent compared to the previous flood-frequency study. For paleoflood data to be effective in reducing the SEP in eastern Colorado, a larger ratio than 44 of 188 (23 percent) streamgages would need paleoflood data and that paleoflood data would need to increase the record length by more than 25 years for the 1-percent AEPD. The greatest reduction in SEP for the peak-streamflow regional-regression equations was observed when additional new basin characteristics were included in the peak-streamflow regional-regression equations and when eastern Colorado was divided into two separate hydrologic regions. To make further reductions in the uncertainties of the peak-streamflow regional-regression equations in the Foothills and Plains hydrologic regions, additional streamgages or crest-stage gages are needed to collect peak-streamflow data on natural streams in eastern Colorado. Generalized-Least Squares regression was used to compute the final peak-streamflow regional-regression equations for peak-streamflow. Dividing eastern Colorado into two new individual regions at –104° longitude resulted in peak-streamflow regional-regression equations with the smallest SEP . The new hydrologic region located between –104° longitude and the Kansas-Nebraska State line will be designated the Plains hydrologic region and the hydrologic region comprising the rest of eastern Colorado located west of the –104° longitude and east of the Rocky Mountains and below 7,500 feet in the South Platte River Basin and below 9,000 feet in the Arkansas River Basin will be designated the Foothills hydrologic region.

Colorado↗