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At least 1,657 records · Page 92Linked to original sources

USGS2023

Pollinator conservation and climate science at the U.S. Geological Survey

Introduction Ecosystems—whether agricultural, urban, or natural—depend on pollinators, great and small. Pollinators in the form of bees, birds, butterflies, bats, and even moths provide vital, but often invisible services, from contributing to biodiverse terrestrial wildlife and plant communities to supporting healthy watersheds. Pollinator declines worldwide have been noted as land-use and climate changes occur on the landscape. This is alarming because up to 75 percent of crop species that are important for human food production depend on pollinators for production. Biodiversity of pollinators in the United States includes more than 4,000 species of insects, birds, and mammals. Pollinator species in the United States are in crisis based on broad-scale changes in land-use and climate. The Committee on the Status of Pollinators in North America summarized active and passive management alternatives to benefit pollinators and reduce their decline. Because assessment of pollinators in the United States has historically lagged behind other regions of the world, the Committee challenged the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) to develop conservation plans, for pollinators, including quantification of the effects of climate change. As an example of the immediate need to focus efforts on pollinator conservation, Inouye and others cited the USFWS’s 2017 listing of the rusty-patched bumble bee ( Bombus affinis ) as Endangered under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) of 1973. Strategies are developed to accomplish pollinator conservation goals and the USGS is contributing scientific expertise toward those goals.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2025

U.S. Geological Survey National Groundwater Climate Response Network

What is the U.S. Geological Survey National Groundwater Climate Response Network? The U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) National Water Monitoring Network is a network of networks that includes the Climate Response Network (CRN). The CRN is a network of wells selected to monitor the effects of climate variability, including droughts, on groundwater systems within the United States, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The primary purpose of the CRN is to monitor these effects on groundwater levels in unconfined or near-surface confined aquifers that are minimally affected by pumping or other human-induced stresses.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2000

Assessment of Folsom Lake response to historical and potential future climate scenarios

An integrated forecast-decision system for Folsom Lake (California) is developed and used to assess the sensitivity of reservoir performance to various forecast-management schemes under historical and future climate scenarios. The assessments are based on various combinations of inflow forecasting models, decision rules, and climate scenarios and demonstrate that (1) reliable inflow forecasts and adaptive decision systems can substantially benefit reservoir performance and (2) dynamic operational procedures represent effective climate change coping strategies.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2010

Development of sea level rise scenarios for climate change assessments of the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

Rising sea level poses critical ecological and economical consequences for the low-lying megadeltas of the world where dependent populations and agriculture are at risk. The Mekong Delta of Vietnam is one of many deltas that are especially vulnerable because much of the land surface is below mean sea level and because there is a lack of coastal barrier protection. Food security related to rice and shrimp farming in the Mekong Delta is currently under threat from saltwater intrusion, relative sea level rise, and storm surge potential. Understanding the degree of potential change in sea level under climate change is needed to undertake regional assessments of potential impacts and to formulate adaptation strategies. This report provides constructed time series of potential sea level rise scenarios for the Mekong Delta region by incorporating (1) aspects of observed intra- and inter-annual sea level variability from tide records and (2) projected estimates for different rates of regional subsidence and accelerated eustacy through the year 2100 corresponding with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate models and emission scenarios.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2021

Climate change vulnerability assessment for the California coastal national monument—Trinidad and Point Arena-Stornetta units

Executive Summary The California Coastal National Monument protects islets, reefs, and rock outcropping habitats in six onshore units, including the Trinidad and Point Arena-Stornetta Units. The California Coastal National Monument provides crucial habitat for resident and migratory species of seabirds, marine mammals, and invertebrates, which includes several federally listed threatened and endangered species. Also, the California Coastal National Monument encompasses important tribal, cultural, and historical sites along the coastline of California. We used three approaches to assess the climate change vulnerability of the Trinidad and Point Arena-Stornetta Units: (1) a qualitative approach using peer-reviewed literature and previous work done in the Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for the North-central California Coast and Ocean (Hutto and others, 2015), (2) interactive workshops with local stakeholders to identify specific resources, and (3) spatial analysis to estimate sea-level rise vulnerability for the rocky shoreline and key resources within the units. Information from stakeholder workshops held (in 2017) in the cities of Point Arena and Trinidad identified climate change impacts as an important management concern for the resilience, health, and ecosystem services of the California Coastal National Monument units. Impacts that were identified included sea-level rise, changes in precipitation and fog, warming oceans, and loss of species (birds, fisheries, marine mammals). Boat surveys were done for each unit to estimate the number of rocky features and the biota using the rocks. At the Trinidad Unit, 138 rocks were surveyed and 17 different wildlife species were observed, whereas at the Point Arena-Stornetta Unit, 40 rocks were surveyed and 10 different wildlife species were observed. Individual rocky features surveyed within the units were then ranked on sea-level rise exposure and vulnerability scales with 1 being the least vulnerable/exposed and 5 the most. Forty-nine and fifty-eight percent of surveyed rocks had a sea-level rise exposure ranking of 4 or 5 (high) for the Trinidad Unit and Point Arena-Stornetta Units respectively. Forty-eight percent of offshore rocks had a sea-level rise vulnerability score of 3 or greater (high) for the Trinidad Unit, and forty-three percent of rocks had a vulnerability score of 3 or greater for the Point Arena-Stornetta Unit. When examining guild use of vulnerable rocks (vulnerability score greater than 3), at the Trinidad Unit alcid species (here defined as common murres and pigeon guillemots) were observed on only 28 percent of vulnerable rocks, shorebirds on 30 percent, sea lions on 40 percent, gulls on 43 percent, seabirds on 58 percent, and mammals on 75 percent, whereas at the Point Arena-Stornetta Unit alcid species were observed on 0 percent of vulnerable rocks, gulls on 33 percent, seabirds on 57 percent, and mammals on 50 percent. Sea-level rise has the potential to submerge small low-relief offshore rocks and make them uninhabitable for birds and marine mammals but could provide more intertidal and subtidal rocky habitats. We found that nearly half of the offshore rocks at both sites are vulnerable and have the potential to realize this outcome; however, the larger and tall-relief rocks at these sites are less vulnerable to sea-level rise and are expected to continue to provide habitat for avian species.

California↗

USGS1983

Vegetation and climates of the last 45,000 years in the vicinity of the Nevada Test Site, south-central Nevada

Paleoclimatic reconstructions for the Nevada Test Site, spanning the last 45,000 years, are based on plant macrofossil assemblages from radiocarbonated packrat (Neotoma spp) middens from south-central Nevada. The temperature regime during the Wisconsin glacial age, from before about 45,000 years ago until about 12,000 years ago, was characterized by lower temperatures during all seasons. Wisconsin maximum (about 18,000 years before present) winter temperatures were at least 6 deg. Celsius below those of the present, and the relative decrease in summer temperature was as much as 8 deg. Celsius. The data provide evidence for a precipitation regime drier than that proposed by many studies. The maximum estimated increase in average annual precipitation during the full-glacial period is 40 percent above current precipitation. The increase in temperature signaling the end of the Wisconsin glacial age may have begun as early as about 16,000 years ago. The oldest record of desert scrub vegetation from the Nevada Test Site area dates to about 15,000 years ago. By 10,000 years before present, average annual temperatures may have approximated present values, although seasonal temperature and precipitation regimes probably differed from those of today. Climate changes during the last 10,000 years have been relatively minor variations in a warm, dry climatic regime. Probably future climatic changes include a brief but pronounced warm period within the next 500 years, followed by a protracted transition to the next glacial age during the next 10,000 years. (USGS)

Nevada↗

USGS2000

Atlas of relations between climatic parameters and distributions of important trees and shrubs in North America; additional conifers, hardwoods, and monocots

This volume explores the continental-scale relations between climate and the geographic ranges of woody plant species in North America. A 25-km equal-area grid of modern climatic and bioclimatic parameters for North America was constructed from instrumental weather records. The geographic distributions of selected tree and shrub species were digitized, and the presence or absence of each species was determined for each cell on the 25-km grid, thus providing a basis for comparing climatic data and species' distribution.

Professional Paper↗

USGS2012

Integrated watershed-scale response to climate change for selected basins across the United States

A study by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) evaluated the hydrologic response to different projected carbon emission scenarios of the 21st century using a hydrologic simulation model. This study involved five major steps: (1) setup, calibrate and evaluated the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) model in 14 basins across the United States by local USGS personnel; (2) acquire selected simulated carbon emission scenarios from the World Climate Research Programme's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project; (3) statistical downscaling of these scenarios to create PRMS input files which reflect the future climatic conditions of these scenarios; (4) generate PRMS projections for the carbon emission scenarios for the 14 basins; and (5) analyze the modeled hydrologic response. This report presents an overview of this study, details of the methodology, results from the 14 basin simulations, and interpretation of these results. A key finding is that the hydrological response of the different geographical regions of the United States to potential climate change may be different, depending on the dominant physical processes of that particular region. Also considered is the tremendous amount of uncertainty present in the carbon emission scenarios and how this uncertainty propagates through the hydrologic simulations.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2014

Stream classification of the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River System to support modeling of aquatic habitat response to climate change

A stream classification and associated datasets were developed for the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin to support biological modeling of species response to climate change in the southeastern United States. The U.S. Geological Survey and the Department of the Interior’s National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center established the Southeast Regional Assessment Project (SERAP) which used downscaled general circulation models to develop landscape-scale assessments of climate change and subsequent effects on land cover, ecosystems, and priority species in the southeastern United States. The SERAP aquatic and hydrologic dynamics modeling efforts involve multiscale watershed hydrology, stream-temperature, and fish-occupancy models, which all are based on the same stream network. Models were developed for the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin and subbasins in Alabama, Florida, and Georgia, and for the Upper Roanoke River Basin in Virginia. The stream network was used as the spatial scheme through which information was shared across the various models within SERAP. Because these models operate at different scales, coordinated pair versions of the network were delineated, characterized, and parameterized for coarse- and fine-scale hydrologic and biologic modeling. The stream network used for the SERAP aquatic models was extracted from a 30-meter (m) scale digital elevation model (DEM) using standard topographic analysis of flow accumulation. At the finer scale, reaches were delineated to represent lengths of stream channel with fairly homogenous physical characteristics (mean reach length = 350 m). Every reach in the network is designated with geomorphic attributes including upstream drainage basin area, channel gradient, channel width, valley width, Strahler and Shreve stream order, stream power, and measures of stream confinement. The reach network was aggregated from tributary junction to tributary junction to define segments for the benefit of hydrological, soil erosion, and coarser ecological modeling. Reach attributes are summarized for each segment. In six subbasins segments are assigned additional attributes about barriers (usually impoundments) to fish migration and stream isolation. Segments in the six sub-basins are also attributed with percent urban area for the watershed upstream from the stream segment for each decade from 2010–2100 from models of urban growth. On a broader scale, for application in a coarse-scale species-response model, the stream-network information is aggregated and summarized by 256 drainage subbasins (Hydrologic Response Units) used for watershed hydrologic and stream-temperature models. A model of soil erodibility based on the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation also was developed at this scale to parameterize a model to evaluate stream condition. The reach-scale network was classified using multivariate clustering based on modeled channel width, valley width, and mean reach gradient as variables. The resulting classification consists of a 6-cluster and a 12-cluster classification for every reach in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint Basin. We present an example of the utility of the classification that was tested using the occurrence of two species of darters and two species of minnows in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin, the blackbanded darter and Halloween darter, and the bluestripe shiner and blacktail shiner.

Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Virginia↗

USGS2015

Climate and streamflow characteristics for selected streamgages in eastern South Dakota, water years 1945–2013

Upward trends in precipitation and streamflow have been observed in the northeastern Missouri River Basin during the past century, including the area of eastern South Dakota. Some of the identified upward trends were anomalously large relative to surrounding parts of the northern Great Plains. Forcing factors for streamflow trends in eastern South Dakota are not well understood, and it is not known whether streamflow trends are driven primarily by climatic changes or various land-use changes. Understanding the effects that climate (specifically precipitation and temperature) has on streamflow characteristics within a region will help to better understand additional factors such as land-use alterations that may affect the hydrology of the region. To aid in this understanding, a study was completed by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the East Dakota Water Development District and James River Water Development District, to assess trends in climate and streamflow characteristics at 10 selected streamgages in eastern South Dakota for water years (WYs) 1945–2013 (69 years) and WYs 1980–2013 (34 years). A WY is the 12-month period, October 1 through September 30, and is designated by the calendar year in which it ends. One streamgage is on the Whetstone River, a tributary to the Minnesota River, and the other streamgages are in the James, Big Sioux, and Vermillion River Basins. The watersheds for two of the James River streamgages extend into North Dakota, and parts of the watersheds for two of the Big Sioux River streamgages extend into Minnesota and Iowa. The objectives of this study were to document trends in streamflow and precipitation in these watersheds, and characterize the residual streamflow variability that might be attributed to factors other than precipitation. Residuals were computed as the departure from a locally-weighted scatterplot smoothing (LOWESS) model. Significance of trends was based on the Mann-Kendall nonparametric test at a 0.10 significance level. Of the 10 streamgages selected, only the Elm River at Westport (in the upper part of James River Basin) did not have a significant upward trend in annual mean streamflow for WYs 1945–2013, whereas only one-half of the streamgages had significant upward trends in annual mean streamflow for WYs 1980–2013. Mean and 7-day minimum streamflows also had upward trends for the spring runoff period (March–May) for most of the streamgages during WYs 1945–2013 and for one streamgage during WYs 1980–2013. Magnitudes of increases in streamflow were as great as 30 cubic feet per second per year for the streamgage on the James River near Scotland during WYs 1980–2013. Precipitation trends for WYs 1945–2013 were not necessarily significant for the watersheds of streamgages with a significant streamflow trend. Annual total precipitation had a significant upward trend for the watersheds of 4 of the 10 streamgages during WYs 1945–2013 and no significant trends for WYs 1980–2013. The most widespread precipitation increase was for September–November, with significant upward trends for the watersheds of 8 of the 10 streamgages during WYs 1945–2013; however, no trends in September– November precipitation were significant for WYs 1980–2013. The greatest magnitude of increase in precipitation was for the December–May season during WYs 1980–2013, which had a mean increase of 0.106 inch per year in the watersheds of streamgages with significant trends. The correlation between streamflow and precipitation metrics was low as indicated by the mean coefficient of determination (R 2 ) of 0.18 for all pairs considered. The highest locally-weighed scatterplot smoothing (LOWESS) correlation was between annual precipitation (by water year) and annual mean streamflow (by water year), which had a mean R 2 of 0.47 for all streamgages and was as high as 0.72 for one streamgage. The correlation between annual precipitation and March–May mean streamflow had a mean R 2 of 0.33 for all streamgages and was as high as 0.52 for one streamgage. Other metrics had R 2 values for LOWESS correlations that were less than 0.3 and were not further considered for analyses of residuals. For annual precipitation as a predictor of annual mean flow, precipitation-removed streamflow had significant upward trends during WYs 1945–2013 for one-half of the streamgages. Upward trends in residual annual mean streamflow were indicated for the Whetstone River and lower part of the Big Sioux River Basin, indicating that other factors are contributors to streamflow variability during WYs 1945–2013. In contrast, most of the streamgages in the James and Vermillion River Basins had no trends in residual annual mean streamflow, indicating that streamflow trends can be explained primarily by precipitation. Precipitation-removed streamflow had fewer trends during the more recent analysis period of WYs 1980–2013 than WYs 1945–2013 for all streamgages in eastern South Dakota. Upward trends in residuals for March– May mean streamflow were indicated for Skunk Creek at Sioux Falls and the Big Sioux River at Akron, but trends in residuals were not significant at the remaining streamgages. For the streamgages with significant trends in residual streamflow (such as the streamgage on the Whetstone River and streamgages in the Big Sioux River Basin), land-use changes likely are minor factors, with the main factors probably being changes in the timing and frequency of large precipitation events and persistently wetter antecedent conditions. Changes in the relation between precipitation and streamflow since 1945 were evident when considering the runoff efficiency of the watershed. For example, the streamflow response to annual precipitation of 25 inches for the James River near Scotland increased from approximately 1,000 cubic feet per second for WYs 1945–1990 to about 2,500 cubic feet per second for WYs 1991–2013. The importance of antecedent conditions on annual mean streamflow also was indicated by the significance of the multiple linear regression coefficients of annual mean streamflow and precipitation from preceding water years for all but one streamgage. In addition, rising groundwater levels are present in wells in eastern South Dakota, particularly since the 1980s.

South Dakota↗

USGS2019

Basin, climatic, and irrigation factors associated with median summer water yields for streams in Southwestern Michigan, 1945-2015

Median summer water yields and resultant flows for streams are used in Michigan to regulate large water withdrawals to help prevent negative effects on characteristic fish populations. Large water withdrawals commonly are associated with irrigation in rural areas. In an earlier statewide report, an index-flow statistic for the period of record, defined as the median flow during the summer month of lowest flow, was used to characterize median summer flows and associated water yields. In this report, the annual series of median summer water yields for the period July 1 through September 30 within the period of record is used to characterize median summer water yields. For 27 streamgages included in both reports, the average index water yield was at the 37th percentile of the distribution of median summer water yields. In contrast to an index statistic, an annual time series provides a basis for detecting trends in median summer water yields and for determining basin, climatic, and irrigation factors affecting spatial and temporal variations in summer water yields. Daily flow data from 40 selected U.S. Geological Survey streamgages in southwestern Michigan were used in this analysis. Two mixed models were identified to estimate median summer water yields based on fixed basin characteristics and temporally varying climatic factors for 1945–2015. No irrigation data were available prior to 1970, so no irrigation variables were included in the mixed models for 1945–2015. Then, two mixed models were developed for 1970–2015, a period in which a partial annual series of county-level irrigation data also were available. One of the 1970–2015 mixed models provides a basis for estimating median summer water yields at sites in southwestern Michigan using an estimated trend component, and selected basin, climatic, and irrigation factors. Re-estimation of model parameters in this mixed model with more spatially precise information on irrigation withdrawals may improve model accuracy.

Michigan↗

USGS2023

Characterizing changes in the 1-percent annual exceedance probability streamflows for climate-change scenarios in the Housatonic River watershed of Massachusetts, Connecticut, and New York

Current methods for determining the 1-percent annual exceedance probability (AEP) for a streamflow assume stationarity (the assumption that the statistical distribution of data from past observations does not contain trends and will continue unchanged in the future). This assumption allows the 1-percent AEP to be determined based on historical streamflow records. However, the assumption of stationarity is challenged by observed trends in streamflow records. In response, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Federal Emergency Management Agency, studied potential changes to the 1-percent AEP streamflows at streamgages in the Housatonic River watershed in Massachusetts, Connecticut, and New York. The study used the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System—a deterministic hydrologic model. Climate inputs to the model of temperature and precipitation were scaled to anticipated changes based on global climate models that could occur in 2030, 2050, and 2100. The model outputs were used to characterize the 1-percent AEP streamflows for 2030, 2050, and 2100 and compare the results to baseline conditions for 1950 to 2015. Results indicated that the 1-percent AEP streamflow for unregulated streams and rivers may increase from the 1950–2015 baseline period by 7.4, 11.7, and 17.3 percent in 2030, 2050, and 2100, respectively, because of climate change.

Connecticut, Massachusetts, New York↗

USGS2024

Effects of drought and cloud-water interception on groundwater recharge and wildfire hazard for recent and future climate conditions, Kauaʻi, Oʻahu, Molokaʻi, Maui, and the Island of Hawaiʻi

The Water-budget Accounting for Tropical Regions Model (WATRMod) code was used for Kauaʻi, Oʻahu, Molokaʻi, Maui, and the Island of Hawaiʻi to estimate the spatial distribution of groundwater recharge, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and climatic water deficit for a set of water-budget scenarios. The scenarios included historical and future drought conditions, and a land-cover condition where shrubland and forest within the cloud zone were converted to grassland. For the historical drought condition, island-wide mean annual recharge estimates range from a decrease of 30 percent (239 million gallons per day [Mgal/d]) for Kauaʻi to a decrease of 39 percent (2,706 Mgal/d) for the Island of Hawaiʻi, relative to the reference condition consisting of 1978–2007 rainfall and 2020 land cover. For the future drought condition, estimates of island-wide mean annual recharge range from a decrease of 40 percent (477 Mgal/d) on Maui to a decrease of 51 percent (116 Mgal/day) on Molokaʻi. Complete conversion of all shrubland and forest within the cloud zone to grassland for each drought condition produces estimated land-cover-related decreases in island-wide mean annual recharge (in addition to the drought-related decreases) of 11–12 Mgal/d on Oʻahu, 119–135 Mgal/day on Maui, and 689–849 Mgal/d on the Island of Hawaiʻi. The spatial distributions of increases in conditions indicative of moisture stress and potential wildfire hazard were quantified using the relative frequency of soil moisture less than a selected threshold value (monthly mean soil moisture less than 0.074, expressed as a fraction of available water capacity), evapotranspiration less than a selected threshold value (monthly evapotranspiration less than 0.96 inches), and climatic water deficit greater than a selected threshold value (monthly climatic water deficit greater than 0.77, expressed as fraction of potential evapotranspiration). For the historical drought condition, the greatest increases in the relative frequency for the moisture-stress indicators occur across parts of east and southwest Kauaʻi; central, east, and west Oʻahu; central Molokaʻi; central Maui and low- to mid-altitude parts of West Maui volcano; and the northwestern and southern parts of the Island of Hawaiʻi. For the future drought condition, the greatest increases in the relative frequency of the moisture-stress indicators occur across parts of west Kauaʻi; central and west Oʻahu and Molokaʻi; a band of mid-altitude area on the southern slope of West Maui volcano and across the southwestern slope of Haleakalā; and mid-altitude areas of the northwestern and southern parts of the Island of Hawaiʻi. Complete conversion of all shrubland and forest within the cloud zone to grassland for each drought condition results in land-cover-related increases in the relative frequency of moisture-stress indicators around Kaʻala in the Waiʻanae Range and the southeastern part of the Koʻolau Range on Oʻahu, the southern part of West Maui volcano and the southwestern slope of Haleakalā on Maui, and the upland regions of the western and southern parts of the Island of Hawaiʻi.

Hawaii↗

USGS2002

Interdecadal changes in the hydrometeorological regime of the Pacific Northwest and in the regional-to-hemispheric climate regimes, and their linkages

Selected hydrometeorological (HM) data for the Pacific Northwest, and regional-to-hemispheric atmospheric-circulation data and sea-surface temperature (SST) data for the North Pacific, are examined for three successive interdecadal periods that are subsets of the instrumental record in order to estimate if their characteristics have changed. The HM data included monthly precipitation totals for 50 sites in western Washington and 29 climate divisions of the Pacific Northwest, and streamflow averages for 112 sites in Washington, Oregon, and Idaho. The atmospheric data included the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), an index of the Pacific/North America (PNA) circulation pattern, measures of the westerly and northerly components of geostrophic flow, and a subset of the Northern Hemisphere 700-millibar geopotential height data; this subset of 162 grid points includes the area between 15 degrees and 75 degrees N, 110 degrees W and 130 degrees E. The SST data are for a 5-degree grid between 20 degrees N and 60 degrees N, 110 degrees W and 130 degrees E. The atmospheric and SST data were examined not only because the HM regime is linked to regional-to-hemispheric climate regimes, but also to estimate the extent of climate shifts displayed by these data. Three subsets of the record were identified as pre-1947 (PRE), 1947-76 (BASE), and post-1976 (POST) water years, based on an analysis of the HM data and previous studies. For each subset, means were calculated for the water year (October-September), the runoff season (March-August), the winter season (October-February), and a baseflow season (August-September). Differences in means and in ratios of the means between the BASE period and the PRE and POST periods were examined for changes. Winter-season mean precipitation during both the PRE and POST periods was smaller than the BASE period, indicating a spatially consistent and distinct change in the HM regime during winter during the PRE and POST periods. For the runoff season, mean precipitation at most sites, in comparison to the BASE period, was smaller during the PRE period and larger during POST period, indicating that different HM regimes occurred during the runoff season for the PRE and POST periods. Water-year mean precipitation was less for both the PRE and POST periods because of decreases in winter-season precipitation; however, the water-year values for the POST period were not as small as those of the PRE period because more precipitation was concentrated in the runoff season. During both the PRE and POST periods, the mean water-year discharge was less than the BASE period for all but 15 of the 112 sites. Fourteen of the 15 sites were in a well-defined region (southern Idaho and southeastern Oregon), and 13 of the 14 had larger means only during the POST period. Winter-season streamflow was less for all but 11 sites during both PRE and POST periods; the largest decreases in the mean, more than 30 percent, were for an area in central Oregon. Except for the sites that had larger mean water-year discharge, runoff-season means also were less than those during the BASE period. Changes in the SOI and PNA index from the BASE period were generally similar to and consistent with those of the majority of the hydrologic data; dissimilarities were in well-defined regions and are attributed to the evolutionary nature of the regime shifts. Negative values of the SOI for the POST period were more persistent than those that have occurred during both the PRE and BASE periods. The changes in the PNA index and the geostrophic flow components during the POST period are consistent with drier and warmer conditions in the Pacific Northwest. The 700-millibar data display trends and differences between the BASE and POST periods; differences in composite anomalies for selected winter months between these periods show a well-defined PNA pattern. For many areas of the North Pacific, the record of SSTs shows a significant long-term trend

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS1984

Preliminary assessment of climatic change during Late Wisconsin time, southern Great Basin and vicinity, Arizona, California, and Nevada

Nine plant macrofossil assemblages from the Eleana Range-2 packrat (Neotoma sp.) midden span 6,500 radiocarbon years and record local vegetational changes in the southern Great Basin of Nevada during the last one-half of the Late Wisconsin glacial age. Climatic reconstructions were developed to account for these changes. During the late full glacial episode (17,000 to 15,000 radiocarbon years before the present), winter precipitation was about 70% greater than present winter precipitation, and summer rainfall was minimal. Average annual precipitation probably exceeded present annual precipitation by less than 40%. Annual temperatures were about 6 to 7 C lower than the present average, and evidence exists for winter temperatures much lower than those of the present. A major warming trend occurred between about 16,000 and 12,000 radiocarbon years before present. By the latest Wisconsin (12 ,000 to 10,000 radiocarbon years before present), annual temperatures were within 2 C of temperatures of the present. During the latest Wisconsin, precipitation was greater during the winter, relative to the present. The climate of this pluvial event was much different from that of the preceding full glacial episode and is consistent with current models of astronomically induced climatic changes. (USGS)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS2017

Climatic implications of reconstructed early - Mid Pliocene equilibrium-line altitudes in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica

Early-mid Pliocene moraines in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica, are more extensive than the present alpine glaciers in this region, indicating substantial climatic differences between the early-mid Pliocene and the present. To quantify this difference in the glacier-climate regime, we estimated the equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) change since the early-mid Pliocene by calculating the modern ELA and reconstructing the ELAs of four alpine glaciers in Wright and Taylor Valleys at their early-mid Pliocene maxima. The area-altitude balance ratio method was used on modern and reconstructed early-mid Pliocene hypsometry. In Wright and Victoria Valleys, mass-balance data identify present-day ELAs of 800-1600 m a.s.l. and an average balance ratio of 1.1. The estimated ELAs of the much larger early-mid Pliocene glaciers in Wright and Taylor Valleys range from 600 to 950 ?? 170 m a.s.l., and thus are 250-600 ??170 m lower than modern ELAs in these valleys. The depressed ELAs during the early-mid-Pliocene most likely indicate a wetter and therefore warmer climate in the Dry Valleys during this period than previous studies have recognized.

Annals of Glaciology↗

USGS2023

Riparian vegetation response amid variable climate conditions across the Upper Gila River watershed: Informing Tribal restoration priorities

Riparian systems across the Southwest United States are extremely valuable for the human and ecological communities that engage with them. However, they have experienced substantial changes and stresses over the past century, including non-native vegetation expansion, vegetation die-offs, and increased fire activity. Vegetation management approaches, such as ecological restoration, may address some of these stressors as well as reduce the risk of future impacts. We apply remote sensing to inform restoration priorities along the upper Gila River within the San Carlos Apache Reservation and Upper Gila River watershed. First, we develop a spatially and temporally explicit trend analysis across three observed climate periods (1985–1993, 1993–2014, 2014–2021) using the Landsat-derived indices to quantify changes in riparian vegetation conditions. These maps can be used to identify areas potentially more at risk for degradation. Second, we analyze changes in riparian vegetation within a climate framework to better understand trends and the potential effect of climate change. Vegetation greenness has largely increased throughout the watershed despite intensifying drought conditions across our study period, though areas within the lower watershed have shown increased stress and higher rates of wildfire and other disturbances over the past 5-years. Nevertheless, small-scale restoration activities appear to show improving vegetation conditions, suggesting efficacy of these restoration activities. Results from this study may be integrated with restoration objectives to develop a restoration plan that will help riparian vegetation communities adapt to change.

Arizona↗

USGS2022

Antecedent climatic conditions spanning several years influence multiple land-surface phenology events in semi-arid environments

Ecological processes are complex, often exhibiting non-linear, interactive, or hierarchical relationships. Furthermore, models identifying drivers of phenology are constrained by uncertainty regarding predictors, interactions across scales, and legacy impacts of prior climate conditions. Nonetheless, measuring and modeling ecosystem processes such as phenology remains critical for management of ecological systems and the social systems they support. We used random forest models to assess which combination of climate, location, edaphic, vegetation composition, and disturbance variables best predict several phenological responses in three dominant land cover types in the U.S. Northwestern Great Plains (NWP). We derived phenological measures from the 25-year series of AVHRR satellite data and characterized climatic predictors (i.e., multiple moisture and/or temperature based variables) over seasonal and annual timeframes within the current year and up to 4 years prior. We found that antecedent conditions, from seasons to years before the current, were strongly associated with phenological measures, apparently mediating the responses of communities to current-year conditions. For example, at least one measure of antecedent-moisture availability [precipitation or vapor pressure deficit (VPD)] over multiple years was a key predictor of all productivity measures. Variables including longer-term lags or prior year sums, such as multi-year-cumulative moisture conditions of maximum VPD, were top predictors for start of season. Productivity measures were also associated with contextual variables such as soil characteristics and vegetation composition. Phenology is a key process that profoundly affects organism-environment relationships, spatio-temporal patterns in ecosystem structure and function, and other ecosystem dynamics. Phenology, however, is complex, and is mediated by lagged effects, interactions, and a diversity of potential drivers; nonetheless, the incorporation of antecedent conditions and contextual variables can improve models of phenology.

Idaho, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dako↗