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USGS2017

Climate-driven variability in the occurrence of major floods across North America and Europe

Concern over the potential impact of anthropogenic climate change on flooding has led to a proliferation of studies examining past flood trends. Many studies have analysed annual-maximum flow trends but few have quantified changes in major (25–100 year return period) floods, i.e. those that have the greatest societal impacts. Existing major-flood studies used a limited number of very large catchments affected to varying degrees by alterations such as reservoirs and urbanisation. In the current study, trends in major-flood occurrence from 1961 to 2010 and from 1931 to 2010 were assessed using a very large dataset (>1200 gauges) of diverse catchments from North America and Europe; only minimally altered catchments were used, to focus on climate-driven changes rather than changes due to catchment alterations. Trend testing of major floods was based on counting the number of exceedances of a given flood threshold within a group of gauges. Evidence for significant trends varied between groups of gauges that were defined by catchment size, location, climate, flood threshold and period of record, indicating that generalizations about flood trends across large domains or a diversity of catchment types are ungrounded. Overall, the number of significant trends in major-flood occurrence across North America and Europe was approximately the number expected due to chance alone. Changes over time in the occurrence of major floods were dominated by multidecadal variability rather than by long-term trends. There were more than three times as many significant relationships between major-flood occurrence and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation than significant long-term trends.

Journal of Hydrology↗

USGS2006

Chapter 2. Assessment of undiscovered conventional oil and gas resources–Upper Jurassic-Lower Cretaceous Cotton Valley group, Jurassic Smackover interior salt basins total petroleum system, in the East Texas basin and Louisiana-Mississippi salt basins provinces

The Jurassic Smackover Interior Salt Basins Total Petroleum System is defined for this assessment to include (1) Upper Jurassic Smackover Formation carbonates and calcareous shales and (2) Upper Jurassic and Lower Cretaceous Cotton Valley Group organic-rich shales. The Jurassic Smackover Interior Salt Basins Total Petroleum System includes four conventional Cotton Valley assessment units: Cotton Valley Blanket Sandstone Gas (AU 50490201), Cotton Valley Massive Sandstone Gas (AU 50490202), Cotton Valley Updip Oil and Gas (AU 50490203), and Cotton Valley Hypothetical Updip Oil (AU 50490204). Together, these four assessment units are estimated to contain a mean undiscovered conventional resource of 29.81 million barrels of oil, 605.03 billion cubic feet of gas, and 19.00 million barrels of natural gas liquids. The Cotton Valley Group represents the first major influx of clastic sediment into the ancestral Gulf of Mexico. Major depocenters were located in south-central Mississippi, along the Louisiana-Mississippi border, and in northeast Texas. Reservoir properties and production characteristics were used to identify two Cotton Valley Group sandstone trends across northern Louisiana and east Texas: a high-permeability blanket-sandstone trend and a downdip, low-permeability massive-sandstone trend. Pressure gradients throughout most of both trends are normal, which is characteristic of conventional rather than continuous basin-center gas accumulations. Indications that accumulations in this trend are conventional rather than continuous include (1) gas-water contacts in at least seven fields across the blanket-sandstone trend, (2) relatively high reservoir permeabilities, and (3) high gas-production rates without fracture stimulation. Permeability is sufficiently low in the massive-sandstone trend that gas-water transition zones are vertically extensive and gas-water contacts are poorly defined. The interpreted presence of gas-water contacts within the Cotton Valley massive-sandstone trend, however, suggests that accumulations in this trend are also conventional.

Alabama, Arkansas. Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mi↗

USGS2014

Groundwater-quality data in seven GAMA study units: results from initial sampling, 2004-2005, and resampling, 2007-2008, of wells: California GAMA Program Priority Basin Project

The Priority Basin Project (PBP) of the Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) Program was developed in response to the Groundwater Quality Monitoring Act of 2001 and is being conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the California State Water Resources Control Board (SWRCB). The GAMA-PBP began sampling, primarily public supply wells in May 2004. By the end of February 2006, seven (of what would eventually be 35) study units had been sampled over a wide area of the State. Selected wells in these first seven study units were resampled for water quality from August 2007 to November 2008 as part of an assessment of temporal trends in water quality by the GAMA-PBP. The initial sampling was designed to provide a spatially unbiased assessment of the quality of raw groundwater used for public water supplies within the seven study units. In the 7 study units, 462 wells were selected by using a spatially distributed, randomized grid-based method to provide statistical representation of the study area. Wells selected this way are referred to as grid wells or status wells. Approximately 3 years after the initial sampling, 55 of these previously sampled status wells (approximately 10 percent in each study unit) were randomly selected for resampling. The seven resampled study units, the total number of status wells sampled for each study unit, and the number of these wells resampled for trends are as follows, in chronological order of sampling: San Diego Drainages (53 status wells, 7 trend wells), North San Francisco Bay (84, 10), Northern San Joaquin Basin (51, 5), Southern Sacramento Valley (67, 7), San Fernando–San Gabriel (35, 6), Monterey Bay and Salinas Valley Basins (91, 11), and Southeast San Joaquin Valley (83, 9). The groundwater samples were analyzed for a large number of synthetic organic constituents (volatile organic compounds [VOCs], pesticides, and pesticide degradates), constituents of special interest (perchlorate, N-nitrosodimethylamine [NDMA], and 1,2,3-trichloropropane [1,2,3-TCP]), and naturally-occurring inorganic constituents (nutrients, major and minor ions, and trace elements). Naturally-occurring isotopes (tritium, carbon-14, and stable isotopes of hydrogen and oxygen in water) also were measured to help identify processes affecting groundwater quality and the sources and ages of the sampled groundwater. Nearly 300 constituents and water-quality indicators were investigated. Quality-control samples (blanks, replicates, and samples for matrix spikes) were collected at 24 percent of the 55 status wells resampled for trends, and the results for these samples were used to evaluate the quality of the data for the groundwater samples. Field blanks rarely contained detectable concentrations of any constituent, suggesting that contamination was not a noticeable source of bias in the data for the groundwater samples. Differences between replicate samples were mostly within acceptable ranges, indicating acceptably low variability in analytical results. Matrix-spike recoveries were within the acceptable range (70 to 130 percent) for 75 percent of the compounds for which matrix spikes were collected. This study did not attempt to evaluate the quality of water delivered to consumers. After withdrawal, groundwater typically is treated, disinfected, and blended with other waters to maintain acceptable water quality. The benchmarks used in this report apply to treated water that is served to the consumer, not to untreated groundwater. To provide some context for the results, however, concentrations of constituents measured in these groundwater samples were compared with benchmarks established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) and California Department of Public Health (CDPH). Comparisons between data collected for this study and benchmarks for drinking water are for illustrative purposes only and are not indicative of compliance or non-compliance with those benchmarks. Most constituents that were detected in groundwater samples from the trend wells were found at concentrations less than drinking-water benchmarks. Four VOCs—trichloroethene, tetrachloroethene, 1,2-dibromo-3-chloropropane, and methyl tert-butyl ether—were detected in one or more wells at concentrations greater than their health-based benchmarks, and six VOCs were detected in at least 10 percent of the samples during initial sampling or resampling of the trend wells. No pesticides were detected at concentrations near or greater than their health-based benchmarks. Three pesticide constituents—atrazine, deethylatrazine, and simazine—were detected in more than 10 percent of the trend-well samples during both sampling periods. Perchlorate, a constituent of special interest, was detected more frequently, and at greater concentrations during resampling than during initial sampling, but this may be due to a change in analytical method between the sampling periods, rather than to a change in groundwater quality. Another constituent of special interest, 1,2,3-TCP, was also detected more frequently during resampling than during initial sampling, but this pattern also may not reflect a change in groundwater quality. Samples from several of the wells where 1,2,3-TCP was detected by low-concentration-level analysis during resampling were not analyzed for 1,2,3-TCP using a low-level method during initial sampling. Most detections of nutrients and trace elements in samples from trend wells were less than health-based benchmarks during both sampling periods. Exceptions include nitrate, arsenic, boron, and vanadium, all detected at concentrations greater than their health-based benchmarks in at least one well during both sampling periods, and molybdenum, detected at concentrations greater than its health-based benchmark during resampling only. The isotopic ratios of oxygen and hydrogen in water and tritium and carbon-14 activities generally changed little between sampling periods, suggesting that the predominant sources and ages of groundwater in most trend wells were consistent between the sampling periods.

California↗

USGS2007

Changes in streamflow, concentrations, and loads in selected nontidal basins in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed, 1985-2006

Water-quality and streamflow data from 34 sites in nontidal parts of the Chesapeake Bay watershed are presented to document annual nutrient and sediment loads and trends for 1985 through 2006, as part of an annual evaluation of water-quality conditions by the U.S. EPA Chesapeake Bay Program. This study presents the results of trends analysis for streamflow, loads, and concentrations. Annual mean flow to the bay for 2006 (78,650 cubic feet per second) was approximately 1 percent above the long-term annual mean flow from 1937 to 2005. Total freshwater flow entering the bay for the summer season (July-August-September) was the only season classified as 'wet' in 2006. For the period 1985 through 2006, streamflow was significantly increasing at two of the 34 sites. Observed (bias-corrected) concentration summaries indicate higher ranges in concentrations of total nitrogen in the northern major river basins (Pennsylvania, Maryland, and northern Virginia) than in the southern basins in Virginia. Results indicate almost half of the monitoring sites in the northern basins exhibited significant downward bias-corrected concentration trends in total nitrogen over time; results were similar for total phosphorus and sediment. Generally, loads for all constituents at the nine River Input Monitoring Program (RIM) sites, which comprise 78 percent of the streamflow entering the bay, were lower in 2006 than in 2005. The loads for total nitrogen are below the long-term average loads at eight of the nine RIM sites and total phosphorus and sediment loads are also below the long-term average at seven RIM sites. Combined annual mean total nitrogen flow-weighted concentrations from the nine RIM sites indicated an upward tendency in 2006; in contrast, total phosphorus and sediment indicated a downward tendency. From 1990 to 2006 for the 9 RIM sites, the mean concentrations of total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and sediment were 3.49, 0.195, and 116 milligrams per liter, respectively. Flow-weighted concentrations for phosphorus and sediment were lowest in the Susquehanna River at Conowingo, Md., most likely because of the trapping efficiency of three large reservoirs upstream from the sampling point. For all 34 sites and all constituents, trends in concentrations (not adjusted for flow) showed 12 statistically significant upward trends and 59 statistically significant downward trends for the period 1985 through 2006. When trends in concentrations are adjusted for flow, they can be used as indicators of human activity and effectiveness of management actions. The flow-adjusted trends indicated significant downward trends at approximately 74, 68, and 32 percent of the sites for total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and sediment, respectively. This may indicate that management actions are having some effect in reducing nutrients and sediments.

Delaware, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, Virgin↗

USGS1965

Structure, Quaternary history, and general geology of the Corral Canyon area, Los Angeles County, California

The Corral Canyon nuclear power plant site consists of about 305 acres near the mouth of Corral Canyon in the central Santa Monica Mountains; it is located on an east-trending segment of the Pacific Coast between Point Dume and Malibu Canyon, about 28 miles due west of Los Angeles. The Santa Monica Mountains are the southwesternmost mainland part of the Transverse Ranges province, the east-trending features of which transect the otherwise relatively uniform northwesterly trend of the geomorphic and geologic features of coastal California. The south margin of the Transverse Ranges is marked by the Santa Monica fault system, which extends eastward near the 34th parallel for at least 145 miles from near Santa Cruz Island to the San Andreas fault zone. In the central Santa Monica Mountains area the Santa Monica fault system includes the Malibu Coast fault and Malibu Coast zone of deformation on the north; from the south it includes an inferred fault--the Anacapa fault--considered to follow an east-trending topographic escarpmemt on the sea floor about 5 miles south of the Malibu Coast fault. The low-lying terrain south of the fault system, including the Los Angeles basin and the largely submerged Continental Borderland offshore, are dominated by northwest-trending structural features. The Malibu Coat zone is a wide, east-trending band of asymmetrically folded, sheared, and faulted bedrock that extends for more than 20 miles along the north margin of the Santa Monica fault system west of Santa Monica. Near the north margin of the Malibu Coast zone the north-dipping, east-trending Malibu Coast fault juxtaposes unlike, in part contemporaneous sedimentary rock sections; it is inferred to be the near-surface expression of a major crustal boundary between completely unrelated basement rocks. Comparison of contemporaneous structural features and stratigraphic sections (Late Cretaceous to middle Miocene sedimentary, rocks and middle Miocene volcanic and intrusive igneous rocks on the north; middle and upper Miocene sedimentary and middle Miocene volcanic rocks on the south) across the fault demonstrates that neither strike slip of less than 25 miles nor high-angle dip slip can account for this juxtaposition. Instead, the Malibu Coast fault is inferred to have been the locus of large-magnitude, north-south oriented, horizontal shortening (north, or upper, block thrust over south block). This movement occurred at or near the northern boundary of the Continental Borderland, the eastern boundary of which is inferred to be the northwest-trending known-active Newport-Inglewood zone of en echelon right lateral strike-slip faults in the western Los Angeles basin. Local structural features and their relation to regional features, such as those in the Malibu Coast zone, form the basis for the interpretation that the Malibu Coast fault has acted chiefly as a thrust fault. Within the Malibu Coast zone, on both sides of the Malibu Coast fault, structural features in rocks that range in age from Late Cretaceous to late Miocene are remarkably uniform in orientation. The predominant trend of bedding, axial surfaces of numerous asymmetric folds, locally pervasive shear surfaces, and faults is approximately east-west and their predominant dip is northward.. The axes of the folds plunge gently east or west. Evidence from faults and shears within the zone indicates that relative movement on most of these was north (upper) over south. Beyond the Malibu Coast zone to the north and south the rocks entirely lack the asymmetric folds, overturned beds, and the locally abundant shears that characterize the rocks within the zone; these rocks were therefore not subjected to the same deforming forces that existed near the Malibu Coast fault. Movement on the Malibu Coast fault and deformation in the Malibu Coast zone occurred chiefly during the interval between late Miocene and late Pleistocene time. The youngest-known faulting in the Malibu Coast zone is late Pl

Open-File Report↗

USGS2004

Changes in streamflow and water quality in selected nontidal sites in the Chesapeake Bay Basin, 1985-2003

Water-quality and streamflow data from 33 sites in nontidal portions of the Chesapeake Bay Basin were analyzed to document annual nutrient and sediment loads and trends for 1985 through 2003 as part of an annual evaluation of water-quality conditions by the Chesapeake Bay Program. As part of this study, different trend tests and methodologies were evaluated for future use in assessment of the effectiveness of management actions in reducing nutrients and sediments to the Chesapeake Bay. Trends in streamflow were tested at multiple time scales (daily, monthly, seasonal, and annual), resulting in only one significant trend (annual flow for Choptank River near Greensboro, Md.). Data summaries for observed concentrations indicate higher ranges in total-nitrogen concentrations in the northern five major river basins in Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Virginia compared to the southern five basins in Virginia. Similar comparisons showed no distinct differences for total phosphorus. Flow-weighted concentration is useful in evaluating changes through time for the Susquehanna, Potomac, and James Rivers. Results indicate the Potomac River had the highest flow-weighted concentrations (2.5 milligrams per liter) for total nitrogen, and the Potomac and James Rivers averaged about the same (0.15 milligram per liter) for total-phosphorus concentrations. Flow-weighted concentrations were lowest in the Susquehanna River for phosphorus and sediment because of the trapping efficiency of three large reservoirs upstream from the sampling point. Annual loads were estimated by use of the U.S. Geological Surveys ESTIMATOR model. Annual nutrient and sediment loads in 2003 were the second highest total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and sediment loads for the River Input Monitoring sites since 1990. Trends in concentrations, when adjusted for flow, can be used as an indicator of human activity and management actions. The flow-adjusted trends indicated significant decreasing trends at approximately 55, 75, and 48 percent of the sites for total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and sediment, respectively. This suggests management actions are having some effect in reducing nutrients and sediments. Sampling protocols for the river inputs to the bay have targeted high flows. Because this sampling strategy creates the potential for bias in estimated loads and trends, calculations are limited to flow-adjusted loads and trends in this report.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2013

Characterization and data-gap analysis of surface-water quality data in the Piceance study area, western Colorado, 1959–2009

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Federal, State, county, and industry partners, developed a Web-accessible common data repository to provide access to historical and current (as of August 2009) water-quality information (available on the Internet at http://rmgsc.cr.usgs.gov/cwqdr/Piceance/index.shtml ). Surface-water-quality data from public and private sources were compiled for the period 1931 to 2009 and loaded into the common data repository for the Piceance Basin. A subset of surface-water-quality data for 1959 to 2009 from the repository were compiled, reviewed, and checked for quality assurance for this report. This report contains data summaries, comparisons to water-quality standards, trend analyses, a generalized spatial analysis, and a data-gap analysis for select water-quality properties and constituents. Summary statistics and a comparison to standards were provided for 347 sites for 33 constituents including field properties, nutrients, major ions, trace elements, suspended sediment, Escherichia coli, and BTEX (benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene). When sufficient data were available, trends over time were analyzed and loads were calculated for those sites where there were also continuous streamflow data. The majority of sites had information on field properties. Water temperature data was available for 316 sites where data were collected between 1959 and 2009. The only trend that was detected in temperature was an upward trend at the Gunnison River near Grand Junction, Colorado. There were 326 values out of a total of 32,006 values in the study area that exceeded the aquatic-life standard for daily maximum water temperature. For the entire study area, 196 sites had dissolved-oxygen data collected between 1970 and 2009, and median dissolved-oxygen concentrations ranged from 6.8 to11.2 milligrams per liter (mg/L). There were 185 concentrations that exceeded the dissolved oxygen aquatic-life standard out of a total of 11,248 values. The pH data were available for 276 sites, and median pH values ranged from 7.5 to 9.0. There were 241 values that exceeded the high pH standard and 13 values that were less than the low pH standard of the 16,790 values in the study area. Nutrients within the study area were not well represented in each basin and were often not being sampled currently. For the entire study area, 62 sites had nitrate data collected between 1958 and 2009, and median nitrate concentrations ranged from less than detection to 3.72 mg/L as nitrogen. The maximum contaminant level for domestic water supply for nitrate is 10 mg/L and was exceeded once in 3,736 samples. Total phosphorus was collected at 113 sites between 1974 and 2009, and median total phosphorus concentrations ranged from less than detection to 5.04 mg/L. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recommendation for phosphorus is less than 0.1 mg/L, and 1,469 of 4,842 samples exceeded this recommended standard. An upward trend in both nitrate and total phosphorus was detected in the White River above Coal Creek near Meeker, Colo. Standards for major ions exist only for chloride and sulfate. For the entire study area, 118 sites had both chloride and sulfate concentration data collected between 1958 and 2009. Median chloride concentrations ranged from 0.085 mg/L to 280 mg/L. Median sulfate concentrations ranged from 4.57 mg/L to 15,000 mg/L. Both chloride and sulfate domestic water-supply standards are 250 mg/L. There were 120 chloride concentrations and 1,111 sulfate concentration samples that exceeded these standards. A downward trend in dissolved solids was detected at the Colorado River near the Colorado-Utah state border and could be a result of salinity control work near Grand Junction, Colo. Trace elements were relatively well represented both temporally and spatially in the study area though the number of trace element samples per site was not typically enough to compute trends or loads except for selenium. There were 127 sites that had dissolved iron concentration data collected between 1961 and 2009, and median iron concentrations ranged from less than detection to 1,100 micrograms per liter (µg/L). The 30-day drinking-water standard for iron is 300 µg/L, and 203 samples exceeded the standard. Selenium was the best represented trace element with selenium concentration data collected at 197 sites between 1973 and 2009, and median selenium concentrations range from less than detection to 181 µg/L. The chronic standard of 4.6 µg/L for selenium concentrations was exceeded in 899 samples, and the acute aquatic-life standard of 18.4 µg/ for selenium was exceeded in 629 samples. High concentrations of selenium are of concern in the Lower Gunnison River Basin because of the combination of geologic formations and land use. There were significant downward trends in selenium at both main-stem sites on the Gunnison River at Delta, Colo., and the Gunnison River near Grand Junction, Colo. High selenium concentrations correlate with high salinity concentrations; thus, when salinity control efforts are conducted in selenium-rich areas in the Lower Gunnison River Basin, both salinity and selenium have the potential to decrease. Spatial, temporal, and analytical data gaps were identified in the study area. The spatial coverage of sampling sites could be expanded in the White River Basin by adding more tributary sites. No water-quality data exist for tributary streams in the area north of Rangely, Colo., where extensive energy development has occurred in a complex geologic setting. Douglas Creek has a drainage area of 425 square miles and has limited historic water-quality and water-quantity data. Limited data were available for field properties, major ions, nutrients, and trace elements on the main stem of the Colorado River between Glenwood Springs and Cameo, Colo. Nutrient data were minimally collected upstream from Colorado River at the Colorado-Utah state border and on the Gunnison River (major tributary in the reach). Approximately 30 percent of the samples for total phosphorus in the Lower Gunnison River Basin exceeded the recommended standard, yet there were insufficient data to do trends analysis in the Lower Gunnison River Basin except at the Gunnison near Grand Junction site. There is limited trace element data except for selenium in the Lower Gunnison River Basin. Additional sampling is necessary to understand the occurrence, concentrations, and loads of these constituents.

Colorado↗

USGS2019

Groundwater-Level Elevations in the Denver Basin Bedrock Aquifers of Elbert County, Colorado, 2015–18

Public and domestic water supplies in Elbert County, Colorado, rely on groundwater withdrawals from five bedrock aquifers in the Denver Basin aquifer system (lower Dawson, upper Dawson, Denver, Arapahoe, and Laramie-Fox Hills) to meet water demands. Increased pumping in response to regional population growth and development has led to declining groundwater levels in neighboring Douglas County. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Elbert County Board of County Commissioners, began a study in 2015 to monitor groundwater levels within Elbert County. The purpose of this study is to report on groundwater levels measured between April 2015 and June 2018, and analyze trends and changes in groundwater-level elevations throughout the county. Discrete groundwater levels were measured at 42 wells within Elbert County. Six of those wells contained equipment to make and record continuous groundwater-level measurements at hourly intervals. All five aquifers had wells with a rise in groundwater-level elevation and wells with a decline in groundwater-level elevation, based on a relative change in groundwater-level elevation between the April 2015 and April 2018 measurements. All aquifers except the upper Dawson had more wells with significant negative trends in discrete groundwater-level elevations than significant positive trends; however, at least one well within the upper Dawson, lower Dawson, Arapahoe, and Laramie-Fox Hills aquifers had a significant positive trend. Wells screened in the lower Dawson aquifer consistently had the most significant negative trends, with an average trend of −1.96 feet per year (ft/year). The upper Dawson, Denver, Arapahoe, and Laramie-Fox Hills aquifers had average trends of 0.03 ft/year, −1.04 ft/year, −0.46 ft/year, and −0.65 ft/year, respectively. Trends in continuous groundwater-level elevations were in agreement with significant trends in discrete groundwater-level elevations. Potentiometric-surface maps of the upper and lower Dawson aquifers for April 2015 and April 2018 show that differences in hydraulic head from the two measurement periods were greatest along the western part of Elbert County. Results of this study could guide future groundwater monitoring in the county and aid in long-term planning of water resources.

Colorado↗

USGS1996

Analysis of nutrients in the surface waters of the Georgia–Florida Coastal Plain study unit, 1970–91

During the early phase of the Georgia-Florida National Water Quality Assessment study, existing information on nutrients was compiled and analyzed in order to evaluate the nutrient concentrations within the 61,545 square mile study unit. Evaluation of the nutrient concentrations collected at surface-water sites between October 1, 1970, and September 30, 1991, utilized the environmental characteristics of land resource provinces, land use, and nonpoint and point-source discharges within the study unit. Long-term trends were investigated to determine the temporal distribution of nutrient concentrations. In order to determine a level of concern for nutrient concentrations, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) guidelines were used: (1) for nitrate concentrations, the maximum contaminant level in public-drinking water supplies (10 mg/L); (2) for ammonia concentrations, the chronic exposure of aquatic organisms to un-ionized ammonia (2.1 mg/L); (3) for total-phosphorus concentrations, the recommended concentration in flowing water to discourage excessive growth of aquatic plants (0.1 mg/L); and (4) for kjeldahl concentrations, however, no guidelines were available. For sites within the 10 major river basins, median nutrient concentrations were enerally below USEPA guidelines, except for total-phosphorus concentrations where 45 percent of the medians exceeded the guideline. The only median ammonia concentration that exceeded the guideline occurred at the Swift Creek site (3.4 mg/L), in the Suwannee River basin, perhaps due to wastewater discharges. For all sites within the Withlacoochee, Aucilla, and St. Marys River basins, median concentrations of nitrate, ammonia, and total phosphorus were below the USEPA guidelines. Nutrient data at each monitoring site within each major basin were aggregated for comparisons of median nutrient concentrations among major basins. The Ochlockonee and Hillsborough River basins had the highest median nutrient concentrations, the Aucilla River basin had the lowest. Median concentrations of nitrate and ammonia among all major basins were below USEPA guidelines. The median total-phosphorus concentrations for the following river basins exceeded the USEPA guideline: Hillsborough, St. Johns, Suwannee, Ochlockonee, Satilla, Altamaha, and Ogeechee. Although nutrient concentrations within the study unit were low, long-term increasing trends were found in all four nutrients. All 18 study-unit wide nitrate trends had increasing slopes ranging from less than 0.01 to 0.07 (mg/L)/yr. The range in slope for the 13 ammonia trends was -0.03 to 0.01 (mg/L)/yr with 6 increasing trends in the northern part of the study unit. Of the 17 total-phosphorus trends found in the study unit, 10 were found at sites where the median concentration exceeded the USEPA guideline. At these 10 sites, 4 sites had increasing trends with slopes ranging from less than 0.01 to 0.07 (mg/L)/yr, 5 sites had decreasing trends with slopes ranging from -0.01 to -0.24 (mg/L)/yr, and one site showed a seasonal concentration trend. Median nutrient concentrations were significantly different among the four land resource provinces: Southern Piedmont, Southern Coastal Plain, Coastal Flatwoods, and Central Florida Ridge. As a result, nutrient concentrations among basins with similar nutrient inputs but located within different land resource provinces are not expected to be the same due to differences in the combination of factors such as soil permeability, runoff rates, and stream channel slopes. This concept is an important consideration in designing a surface-water quality network within the study area. For the most part, the Coastal Flatwoods showed the lowest median nutrient concentrations and the Southern Coastal Plain had the highest median nutrient concentrations. Lower median nitrate concentrations in surface-water basins were associated with the forest/wetland land-use category and higher median concentrations of nitrate and ammonia with the urban category when land-use percentages were classified into four land-use categories (agriculture, forest/wetland, mixed, and urban). These results were reasonable based on expected high nutrient inputs from urban areas and low inputs from forested and wetland areas. However, the lack of association between high nutrient concentrations and the agricultural land-use category was not expected since high nutrient inputs are generally needed for agriculture production.

Florida, Georgia↗

USGS2016

Evaluation of the initial thematic output from a continuous change-detection algorithm for use in automated operational land-change mapping by the U.S. Geological Survey

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has begun the development of operational, 30-m resolution annual thematic land cover data to meet the needs of a variety of land cover data users. The Continuous Change Detection and Classification (CCDC) algorithm is being evaluated as the likely methodology following early trials. Data for training and testing of CCDC thematic maps have been provided by the USGS Land Cover Trends (LC Trends) project, which offers sample-based, manually classified thematic land cover data at 2755 probabilistically located sample blocks across the conterminous United States. These samples represent a high quality, well distributed source of data to train the Random Forest classifier invoked by CCDC. We evaluated the suitability of LC Trends data to train the classifier by assessing the agreement of annual land cover maps output from CCDC with output from the LC Trends project within 14 Landsat path/row locations across the conterminous United States. We used a small subset of circa 2000 data from the LC Trends project to train the classifier, reserving the remaining Trends data from 2000, and incorporating LC Trends data from 1992, to evaluate measures of agreement across time, space, and thematic classes, and to characterize disagreement. Overall agreement ranged from 75% to 98% across the path/rows, and results were largely consistent across time. Land cover types that were well represented in the training data tended to have higher rates of agreement between LC Trends and CCDC outputs. Characteristics of disagreement are being used to improve the use of LC Trends data as a continued source of training information for operational production of annual land cover maps.

Remote Sensing↗

USGS2019

Influence of multi-decadal land use, irrigation practices and climate on riparian corridors across the Upper Missouri River Headwaters Basin, Montana

The Upper Missouri River Headwaters Basin (36,400 km2) depends on its river corridors to support irrigated agriculture and world-class trout fisheries. We evaluated trends (1984-2016) in riparian wetness, an indicator of riparian condition, in peak irrigation months (June, July, August) for 158 km2 of riparian area across the basin using the Landsat Normalized Difference Wetness Index (NDWI). We found that 8 of the 19 riparian reaches across the basin showed a significant drying trend over this period, including all three basin outlet reaches along the Jefferson, Madison and Gallatin Rivers. The influence of upstream climate was quantified using per reach random forest regressions. Much of the interannual variability in the NDWI was explained by climate, especially by drought indices and annual precipitation, but the significant temporal drying trends persisted in the NDWI-climate model residuals, indicating that trends were not entirely attributable to climate. Over the same period we documented a basin-wide shift from 9% of agriculture irrigated with center pivot irrigation to 50% irrigated with center pivot irrigation. Riparian reaches with a drying trend had a greater increase in the total area with center pivot irrigation (within-reach and upstream from the reach) relative to riparian reaches without such a trend (p<0.05). The drying trend, however, did not extend to river discharge. Over the same period, stream gages (n=7) showed a positive correlation with riparian wetness (p<0.05), but no trend in summer river discharge, suggesting that riparian areas may be more sensitive to changes in irrigation return flows, relative to river discharge. Identifying trends in riparian vegetation is a critical precursor to enhancing the resiliency of river systems and associated riparian corridors.

Montana↗

USGS1999

Marsh birds and the North American Breeding Bird Survey: judging the value of a landscape level survey for habitat specialist species with low detection rates

The North American Breeding Bird Survey was started in 1966, and provides information on population change for >400 species of birds. it covers the continental United States, Canada, and Alaska, and is conducted once each year, in June, by volunteer observers. A 39.4 kIn roadside survey route is driven starting 30 min before sunrise, and a 3 min point count is conducted at each of 50 stops spaced every 0.8 kIn. Existing analyses of the data are internet-based (http://www.mbr-pwrc.usgs.govlbbslbbs.html), and include maps of relative abundance, estimates of population change including trends (%/yr), composite annual indices (pattern in time), and maps of population trend (pattern in space). At least 36 species of marsh birds are encountered on the BBS, and the survey provides estimates with greatly varying levels of efficiency for the species. It is often difficult to understand how well the BBS surveys a species. Often, efficiency is judged by estimating trend and its variance for a species, then by calculating power and needed samples to detect a prespecified trend over some time period (e.g., a 2%/yr trend over 31 yr). Unfortunately, this approach is not always valid, as estimated trends and variances can be of little use if the population is poorly sampled. Lurking concerns with BBS data include (1) incomplete coverage of species range; (2) undersampling of habitats; and (3) low and variable visibility of birds during point counts. It is difficult to evaluate these concerns, because known populations do not exist for comparison with counts, and detection rates are time-consuming and costly to estimate. I evaluated the efficiency of the BBS for selected rails (Rallidae) and snipes (Scolopacidae), presenting estimates of population trend over 1966-1996 (T), power to detect 2%/yr trend over 31 yr, needed samples to achieve power of 0.75 with alpha= 0.1, number of survey routes with data for the species (N), average abundance on survey routes (RA), and maps of relative abundance. Examples include Yellow Rail (Coturnicops noveboracensis) (T=12 %/yr; P= 0.0085; N =28; routes; RA=0.05; Power=0.37; Needed samples=85), Black Rail (Laterallus jamaicensis) (No trend data or power information available, N =8), Clapper Rail (Rallus longirostris) (T=1.9%/yr; P=0.55; N =64; RA=0.31; Power=0.35; Needed samples=590), King Rail (Rallus elegans) (T=-4.2 %/yr; P= 0.03; N =76; Power=0.41; Needed samples=159), Sora (Porzana carolina) (T=0.98 %/yr; P= 0.24; N =720; RA= 0.92; Power=0.69; Needed samples= 377), and Common Snipe (Gallinago gallinago) (T=-0.24 %/yr; P= 0.54; N =1412; RA= 2.19; Power=0.98; Needed samples=205). With regard to quality of BBS data, marsh birds fall into 3 categories: (1) almost never encountered on BBS routes; (2) encountered at extremely low abundances on BBS routes; and (3) probably fairly well sampled by BBS roadside counts. BBS data can provide useful information for many marsh bird species, but users should be aware of the limitations of the BBS sample for monitoring species that have low visibility from point counts and prefer habitats not often encountered on roadsides.

Book chapter↗

USGS1978

Porphyry copper exploration model for northern Sonora, Mexico

The regional tectonic pattern of the porphyry copper province of northern Sonora, Mexico, is similar to, but more complex than, the Colorado mineral belt. Four northeast-trending shear zones, spaced at 30- to 50-kilometer intervals from Hermosillo, Mexico, north to Nogales, Mexico, are interpreted from analysis of lineament data from Landsat-1 images. From comparison with other areas, these zones are believed to have Precambrian ancestry. North-northwest-trending lineaments, which commonly occur along range fronts, are interpreted to be the principal basin and range faults. North-south- and west-northwest-trending lineaments are believed to be related to lesser faults and fractures. Areas of hydrothermal alteration have been mapped on a regional scale by use of digital image-processing techniques. These altered areas occur on the flanks of the northeast-trending shear zones, generally near intersections with north-northwest-trending lineaments. This tectonic framework with associated alteration is similar to patterns in the Colorado Plateau, the porphyry copper province of Arizona, and central Mexico and is supported by relationships found in limited local mapping. The pattern of northeast-trending shear zones and north-northwest-trending faults in northern Sonora closely resembles the tectonic framework of the Colorado mineral belt. The younger sedimentary and volcanic cover, however, has not been eroded in Sonora as it has been in the Colorado mineral belt. This comparison with the Colorado mineral belt suggests that mineral deposits are most likely to be found in altered areas where a northeast-trending shear zone is intersected by north-northwest-trending faults. Seven areas with these characteristics have been defined in Sonora and are being evaluated by means of regional geophysical and geochemical data.

Sonora↗

USGS2017

Seasonality of change: Summer warming rates do not fully represent effects of climate change on lake temperatures

Responses in lake temperatures to climate warming have primarily been characterized using seasonal metrics of surface-water temperatures such as summertime or stratified period average temperatures. However, climate warming may not affect water temperatures equally across seasons or depths. We analyzed a long-term dataset (1981–2015) of biweekly water temperature data in six temperate lakes in Wisconsin, U.S.A. to understand (1) variability in monthly rates of surface- and deep-water warming, (2) how those rates compared to summertime average trends, and (3) if monthly heterogeneity in water temperature trends can be predicted by heterogeneity in air temperature trends. Monthly surface-water temperature warming rates varied across the open-water season, ranging from 0.013 in August to 0.073°C yr −1 in September (standard deviation [SD]: 0.025°C yr −1 ). Deep-water trends during summer varied less among months (SD: 0.006°C yr −1 ), but varied broadly among lakes (–0.056°C yr −1 to 0.035°C yr −1 , SD: 0.034°C yr −1 ). Trends in monthly surface-water temperatures were well correlated with air temperature trends, suggesting monthly air temperature trends, for which data exist at broad scales, may be a proxy for seasonal patterns in surface-water temperature trends during the open water season in lakes similar to those studied here. Seasonally variable warming has broad implications for how ecological processes respond to climate change, because phenological events such as fish spawning and phytoplankton succession respond to specific, seasonal temperature cues.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2016

Changing regional emissions of airborne pollutants reflected in the chemistry of snowpacks and wetfall in the Rocky Mountain region, USA, 1993–2012

Wintertime precipitation sample data from 55 Snowpack sites and 17 National Atmospheric Deposition Program (NADP)/National Trends Network Wetfall sites in the Rocky Mountain region were examined to identify long-term trends in chemical concentration, deposition, and precipitation using Regional and Seasonal Kendall tests. The Natural Resources Conservation Service snow-telemetry (SNOTEL) network provided snow-water-equivalent data from 33 sites located near Snowpack- and NADP Wetfall-sampling sites for further comparisons. Concentration and deposition of ammonium, calcium, nitrate, and sulfate were tested for trends for the period 1993–2012. Precipitation trends were compared between the three monitoring networks for the winter seasons and downward trends were observed for both Snowpack and SNOTEL networks, but not for the NADP Wetfall network. The dry-deposition fraction of total atmospheric deposition, relative to wet deposition, was shown to be considerable in the region. Potential sources of regional airborne pollutant emissions were identified from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 2011 National Emissions Inventory, and from long-term emissions data for the period 1996–2013. Changes in the emissions of ammonia, nitrogen oxides, and sulfur dioxide were reflected in significant trends in snowpack and wetfall chemistry. In general, ammonia emissions in the western USA showed a gradual increase over the past decade, while ammonium concentrations and deposition in snowpacks and wetfall showed upward trends. Emissions of nitrogen oxides and sulfur dioxide declined while regional trends in snowpack and wetfall concentrations and deposition of nitrate and sulfate were downward.

Colorado, Idaho, Montana, New Mexico, Utah, Wyomin↗

USGS1979

Strain pattern represented by scarps formed during the earthquakes of October 2, 1915, Pleasant Valley, Nevada

The pattern of scarps developed during the earthquakes of October 2, 1915, in Pleasant Valley, Nevada, may have formed as a result of a modern stress system acting on a set of fractures produced by an earlier stress system which was oriented differently. Four major scarps developed in a right-stepping, en-echelon pattern suggestive of left-lateral slip across the zone and an extension axis oriented approximately S85°W. The trend of the zone is N25°E. However, the orientation of simple dip-slip on most segments trending approximately N20—40° E and a right-lateral component of displacement on several N- and NW-trending segments of the scarps indicate that the axis of regional extension was oriented between N50° and 70° W, normal to the zone. The cumulative length of the scarps is 60 km, average vertical displacement 2 m, and the maximum vertical displacement near the Pearce School site 5.8 m. Almost everywhere the 1915 scarps formed along an older scarp line, and in some places older scarps represent multiple previous events. The most recent displacement event prior to 1915 is interpreted to have occurred more than 6600 years ago, but possibly less than 20,000 years ago. Some faults expressed by older scarps that trend northwest were not reactivated in 1915, possibly because they are oriented at a low angle with respect to the axis of modern regional extension. The 1915 event occurred in an area of overlap of three regional fault trends oriented northwest, north, and northeast and referred to, respectively, as the Oregon—Nevada, Northwest Nevada, and Midas—Battle Moutain trends. Each of these trends may have developed at a different time; the Oregon—Nevada trend was possibly the earliest and developed in Late Miocene time (Stewart et al. 1975). Segments of the 1915 scarps ar

Nevada↗

USGS2016

Watershed-scale changes in terrestrial nitrogen cycling during a period of decreased atmospheric nitrate and sulfur deposition

Recent reports suggest that decreases in atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition throughout Europe and North America may have resulted in declining nitrate export in surface waters in recent decades, yet it is unknown if and how terrestrial N cycling was affected. During a period of decreased atmospheric N deposition, we assessed changes in forest N cycling by evaluating trends in tree-ring δ 15 N values (between 1980 and 2010; n = 20 trees per watershed), stream nitrate yields (between 2000 and 2011), and retention of atmospherically-deposited N (between 2000 and 2011) in the North and South Tributaries (North and South, respectively) of Buck Creek in the Adirondack Mountains, USA. We hypothesized that tree-ring δ 15 N values would decline following decreases in atmospheric N deposition (after approximately 1995), and that trends in stream nitrate export and retention of atmospherically deposited N would mirror changes in tree-ring δ 15 N values. Three of the six sampled tree species and the majority of individual trees showed declining linear trends in δ 15 N for the period 1980–2010; only two individual trees showed increasing trends in δ 15 N values. From 1980 to 2010, trees in the watersheds of both tributaries displayed long-term declines in tree-ring δ 15 N values at the watershed scale (R = −0.35 and p = 0.001 in the North and R = −0.37 and p <0.001 in the South). The decreasing δ 15 N trend in the North was associated with declining stream nitrate concentrations (−0.009 mg N L −1 yr −1 , p = 0.02), but no change in the retention of atmospherically deposited N was observed. In contrast, nitrate yields in the South did not exhibit a trend, and the watershed became less retentive of atmospherically deposited N (−7.3% yr −1 , p < 0.001). Our δ 15 N results indicate a change in terrestrial N availability in both watersheds prior to decreases in atmospheric N deposition, suggesting that decreased atmospheric N deposition was not the sole driver of tree-ring δ 15 N values at these sites. Other factors, such as decreased sulfur deposition, disturbance, long-term successional trends, and/or increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, may also influence trends in tree-ring δ 15 N values. Furthermore, declines in terrestrial N availability inferred from tree-ring δ 15 N values do not always correspond with decreased stream nitrate export or increased retention of atmospherically deposited N.

Atmospheric Environment↗

USGS2017

The response of soil and stream chemistry to decreases in acid deposition in the Catskill Mountains, New York, USA

The Catskill Mountains have been adversely impacted by decades of acid deposition, however, since the early 1990s, levels have decreased sharply as a result of decreases in emissions of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides. This study examines trends in acid deposition, stream-water chemistry, and soil chemistry in the southeastern Catskill Mountains. We measured significant reductions in acid deposition and improvement in stream-water quality in 5 streams included in this study from 1992 to 2014. The largest, most significant trends were for sulfate (SO 4 2− ) concentrations (mean trend of −2.5 μeq L −1 yr −1 ); hydrogen ion (H + ) and inorganic monomeric aluminum (Al im ) also decreased significantly (mean trends of −0.3 μeq L −1 yr −1 for H + and −0.1 μeq L −1 yr −1 for Al im for the 3 most acidic sites). Acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) increased by a mean of 0.65 μeq L −1 yr −1 for all 5 sites, which was 4 fold less than the decrease in SO 4 2− concentrations. These upward trends in ANC were limited by coincident decreases in base cations (−1.3 μeq L −1 yr −1 for calcium + magnesium). No significant trends were detected in stream-water nitrate (NO 3 − ) concentrations despite significant decreasing trends in NO 3 − wet deposition. We measured no recovery in soil chemistry which we attributed to an initially low soil buffering capacity that has been further depleted by decades of acid deposition. Tightly coupled decreasing trends in stream-water silicon (Si) (−0.2 μeq L −1 yr −1 ) and base cations suggest a decrease in the soil mineral weathering rate. We hypothesize that a decrease in the ionic strength of soil water and shallow groundwater may be the principal driver of this apparent decrease in the weathering rate. A decreasing weathering rate would help to explain the slow recovery of stream pH and ANC as well as that of soil base cations.

New York↗