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USGS2022

Landscape-scale forest restoration decreases vulnerability to drought mortality under climate change in southwest USA ponderosa forest

Drought-induced tree mortality is predicted to increase in dry forests across the western USA as future projections show hotter, drier climates potentially resulting in large-scale tree die-offs, changes in species composition, and loss of forest ecosystem services, including carbon storage. While some studies have found that forest stands with greater basal areas (BA) have higher drought mortality, many have not evaluated the extent to which forest structure, either overly dense forests due to fire suppression or forests restored to lower densities, interacts with drought mortality. The southwestern USA is particularly susceptible to tree mortality due to the predicted increases in temperature, drier soils, and forests with high density. Our objective was to evaluate how ponderosa pine mortality is expected to be influenced by the Four Forests Restoration Initiative, a large-scale forest restoration effort ongoing in northern Arizona, USA, that will reduce stand BA by approximately 40%. Specifically, we modeled drought mortality in three time periods, one contemporary (1970-2010), and two future (2020-2059 and 2060-2099) under three restoration scenarios: no thinning, 4FRI thinning, and a BA reduction beyond the 4FRI plan (4FRI-intensive). We estimated mortality using 11 climate models under two emissions scenarios. Without thinning, our model predicted that by mid-century (2020-2059), changes in climate could increase annual ponderosa pine mortality rates by 45-57% over contemporary rates. However, with thinning, mid-century mortality was predicted to remain near or below contemporary rates and these rates are 31-35% (4FRI) and 46-51% (4FRI-intensive) less than the mid-century scenarios without thinning. Our study shows that while climate change is likely to increase tree mortality rates, large-scale forest restoration projects, such as 4FRI, have the potential to ameliorate the effects of climate change and keep mortality rates near contemporary levels for decades.

Arizona↗
USGS2022

Large-scale distribution models for optimal prediction of Eastern black rail habitat within tidal ecosystems

Eastern black rails ( Laterallus jamaicensis jamaicensis ) are among the rarest and least-studied birds in North America and were recently listed as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Spatial models that predict habitat quality across the subspecies range are therefore needed to inform conservation, recovery, and monitoring efforts for this rare bird. We used data from 47,585 call-broadcast surveys collected at 7906 sites over a 3-decade period (1990s, 2000s, 2010s; 23 total years) to build species distribution models for eastern black rails. We used hierarchical Bayesian occupancy models and predictive model selection to develop multi-scale models that optimally predict habitat suitability for eastern black rails within tidal wetlands while also accounting for imperfect detection of these cryptic birds during field surveys. We also used raster regression techniques to translate model predictions into 30-m resolution maps of habitat suitability for eastern black rails within tidal wetlands along the eastern seaboard of the United States. The model predicted suitability of breeding habitat as a function of wetland attributes (e.g., cover of high marsh and terrestrial border), hydrologic modification, and disturbance from human development measured over multiple spatial scales. We also found differences in habitat relationships for eastern black rails when compared to models that included both North American subspecies of black rail. Important results included negative effects of shrub-scrub wetlands, and strong positive effects of high marsh, terrestrial border, and impoundments on breeding season occupancy. Our study provides an example of integrating detection-non-detection data and modern statistical methods to build predictive distribution models for an extremely rare species, while also providing rigorous predictions of breeding habitat quality for the eastern black rail within tidal wetlands. These models will facilitate optimal monitoring, habitat conservation, and recovery planning efforts for eastern black rails and provide a foundation for future research and conservation of this imperiled bird.

Global Ecology and Conservation↗
USGS2024

Adaptive capacities of inland fisheries facing anthropogenic pressures

Inland fisheries face multiple, intensifying threats (i.e., proximate human pressures causing degraded ecological attributes) from land development, climate change, resource extraction, and competing demands for water resources. Planning for resiliency amidst these pressures requires understanding the factors that influence an inland fishery’s capacity to adapt to system changes under multiple threats. Incorporating expert knowledge can illuminate priority fisheries and provide important insights where data are otherwise limited. Using data from a global survey of 536 fishery professionals, this study examines perceptions of threats and adaptive capacity (i.e., ability to mitigate or respond to change) in major inland fisheries. We assessed associations across 29 different perceived threats and their ranked influence scores, tested agreement among five adaptive capacity domains (i.e., agency, assets, flexibility, learning, organization), and examined relationships between threats and adaptive capacity domains. Results provide quantitative evidence that the greatest threats to inland fisheries come from outside the fishing sector and that most inland fisheries face multiple threats. Results also support the five domains as a collective measure of adaptive capacity and illuminate a negative association between the threats to a fishery and a fishery’s adaptive capacity. These findings highlight the need for fishery managers to engage in decision making with non-fishery sectors (e.g., multi-sectoral management) and the prioritization of habitat and watershed-scale conservation and rehabilitation efforts for improved adaptability amidst ecological transformation.

Global Environmental Change↗
USGS2000

The GSHAP Global Seismic Hazard Map

Minimization of the loss of life, property damage, and social and economic disruption due to earthquakes depends on reliable estimates of seismic hazard. National, state, and local governments, decision makers, engineers, planners, emergency response organizations, builders, universities, and the general public require seismic hazard estimates for land use planning, improved building design and construction (including adoption of building construction codes), emergency response preparedness plans, economic forecasts, housing and employment decisions, and many more types of risk mitigation. The Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP) was designed to assist in global risk mitigation by providing a useful global seismic hazard framework and by serving as a resource for any national or regional agency for further detailed studies applicable to their needs. GSHAP was launched in 1992 by the International Lithosphere Program (ILP) with the support of the International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU) and endorsed as a demonstration program in the framework of the United Nations International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (UN/IDNDR). GSHAP promoted a regionally coordinated, homogeneous approach to seismic hazard evaluation, including the production and distribution of the Global Seismic Hazard Map (GSH Map), a special issue of Annali di Geofisica (December 1999) describing the map and project, and a Web site (http://seismo.ethz.ch/GSHAP/) containing regional reports, GSHAP yearly reports, summaries, and maps of seismicity, source zones, and seismic hazard values.

Seismological Research Letters↗
USGS2006

Vascular Plant and Vertebrate Inventory of Gila Cliff Dwellings National Monument

Executive Summary This report summarizes the results of the first comprehensive biological inventory of Gila Cliff Dwellings National Monument (NM) in western New Mexico. This project was part of a larger effort to inventory plants and vertebrates in eight National Park Service units in Arizona and New Mexico. Our surveys address many of the objectives that were set forth in the monument's natural resource management plan almost 20 years ago, but until this effort, those goals were never accomplished. From 2001 to 2003 we surveyed for vascular plants and vertebrates (amphibians, reptiles, birds, and mammals) at Gila Cliff Dwellings NM to document presence of species within the boundaries of the monument. For all taxonomic groups that we studied, we collected 'incidental' sightings on U.S. Forest Service lands adjacent to the monument, and in a few cases we did formal surveys on those lands. Because we used repeatable study designs and standardized field techniques, these inventories can serve as the first step in a biological monitoring program for Gila Cliff Dwellings NM and surrounding lands. We recorded 552 species at Gila Cliff Dwellings NM and the surrounding lands (Table 1). We found no non-native species of reptiles, birds, or mammals, one non-native amphibian (American bullfrog), and 33 non-native plants. Particularly on lands adjacent to the monument we found that the American bullfrog was very abundant, which is a cause for significant management concern. Species of non-native plants that are of management concern include red brome, bufflegrass, and cheatgrass. For a park unit of its size and geographic location, we found the plant and vertebrate communities to be fairly diverse; for each taxonomic group we found representative species from a wide range of taxonomic orders and/or families. The monument's geographic location, with influences from the Rocky Mountain, Chihuahuan Desert, and Madrean ecological provinces, plays an important role in determining the species richness at the monument. Also important is the wide range of conditions at the site. The diversity of plants results from a wide variety of soil types and aspects (from the cool, moist Cliff Dweller Canyon to dry mesa slopes) and an abundance of water from the West Fork of the Gila River. In turn, the vertebrate communities respond to this diversity of vegetation, topography, and microsites. For example, for each taxonomic group we found species that were only associated with a single community type, most often the riparian areas along the West and Middle forks of the Gila River. We found cause for significant concern with regard to loss of species in the last few decades. One species of amphibian (Chiricahua leopard frog) is certainly extirpated from the area. Three other species of amphibians (Mexican spadefoot, Woodhouse's toad, and red-spotted toad), reported as being 'common' in the area in 1971, were not found during our surveys. In addition, we did not find three species of rodents that were found in 1965: silky pocket mouse, Ord's kangaroo rat, and southern grasshopper mouse. The monument's aquatic vertebrate component, in particular, may be at a critical juncture whereby other species, such as gartersnakes, may be poised for extirpation. Declining abundance of native fish species has been demonstrated from long-term monitoring of these communities along the Middle Fork of the Gila River. This report includes lists of species recorded by us or species likely to be recorded with additional survey effort. It also includes management implications from our work - how the monument staff might better maintain or enhance the unique biological resources of the monument. This study is the first step in a long-term process of compiling information on the biological resources of the monument and its surrounding areas. We recommend additional inventory and monitoring studies and identify components of our effort that could be improved upon

Open-File Report↗
USGS2021

Methods of data collection and analysis for an assessment of karst aquifer systems between Albany and Buffalo, New York

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation, catalogued aquifers and closed depressions in a karst-prone area between Albany and Buffalo, New York to provide resource managers information to more efficiently manage and protect groundwater resources. The New York State Department of Environmental Conservation has been working with the agricultural industry to raise awareness of karst aquifer contamination susceptibility and how to reduce effects on surface water and groundwater resources, especially in karst areas. There is also a need to make industries, State and local regulators, planners, and the public aware of New York’s karst resources to properly protect and manage these resources and the quality of surface water and groundwater that flows through the karst aquifer. Publicly available geospatial data were identified, collated, and analyzed for a region of karst terrain extending from Albany to Buffalo. The region was divided into 10 subareas. A series of geospatial datasets were assembled to determine the location and extent of karstic rock; bedrock geology and depth to bedrock; average water-table configuration; surficial geology; soil type, thickness, and hydraulic conductivity; land cover; and closed depressions in the land surface. Repeated glaciation and recession across New York have left the landscape pockmarked with closed depressions, which may or may not be related to the underlying bedrock. Closed depressions in areas where carbonate or evaporite karst are present are of primary concern to this study because of the increased potential of karst aquifer contamination from focused recharge. Closed depressions present in areas not associated with karst bedrock can also be evaluated to better understand their ability to transmit surface water to the groundwater system. Information on closed depressions can be used to develop land-management plans to protect local and regional water resources.

New York↗
USGS2002

Water-quality and physical characteristics of streams in the Treyburn development area of Falls Lake watershed, North Carolina, 1994–98

Treyburn is a 5,400-acre planned, mixed-use development in the upper Neuse River Basin of North Carolina. The development, which began in 1986, is located in the Falls Lake watershed near three water-supply reservoirs-Lake Michie to the north, Falls Lake to the southeast, and Little River Reservoir to the west. A study began in 1988 to determine the water-quality characteristics of surface waters in and around the Treyburn development area. Data to characterize water quality at five different sites were collected from July 1994 through September 1998. Data from a previous study are available for some sites for the period 1988–93. The sites were selected to characterize water quality and quantity in and near the Treyburn development and included an undeveloped basin, a relatively small basin containing single-family residences and a golf course, a basin downstream from the western part of the development with some industrial land use, and two basins unaffected by the development where agricultural land is being converted to urban and forested land use. Suspended-sediment concentrations ranged from less than 1 to 581 milligrams per liter and were fairly uniform among the five sites. Median suspended-sediment concentrations ranged from 12 to 21 milligrams per liter. Few concentrations of metals and trace elements, except aluminum, iron, and manganese, exceeded the laboratory reporting levels or water-quality criteria. At one site, concentrations of silver exceeded both the action level and the reporting level; copper was detected at each site and exceeded the action level of 7 micrograms per liter at one site. The lowest range and median concentrations of total organic nitrogen, nitrate, ammonia, total phosphorus, and orthophosphorus occurred in the relatively undisturbed, forested site. The maximum concentration of organic nitrogen (1.97 milligrams per liter) occurred at one of the sites unaffected by the Treyburn development where agricultural land is being converted to urban land use. At all sites, ammonia concentrations ranged from less than 0.02 to 0.36 milligram per liter, and median concentrations were near the reporting level. Nitrate concentrations ranged from less than 0.05 to 0.80 milligram per liter. Phosphorus concentrations at all of the Treyburn study sites were low compared to phosphorus concentrations that typically exceed 0.1 milligram per liter at sites sampled nationally for the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment Program, including the Albemarle-Pamlico study area in North Carolina. Total phosphorus concentrations ranged from less than 0.01 to 0.87 milligram per liter, and orthophosphorus concentrations ranged from less than 0.01 to 0.76 milligram per liter as phosphorus. The maximum concentrations of total phosphorus and orthophosphorus occurred at the Treyburn residential and golf-course site, likely as a result of the fertilizer applications associated with these two types of land use. Of the 119 different pesticides tested, 11 were detected in concentrations that exceeded the laboratory reporting levels, though in very low concentrations. Water samples from the residential and golf-course site contained the greatest number of pesticides (10). Five of six samples collected at this site had detectable concentrations of simazine, atrazine, and pendimethalin-all herbicides used to control weeds in crops or turf. Channel geometry was assessed at eight sites in the study area in February 1997. These sites were separated into three groups based on mean bank angle and mean channel width-to-depth ratios. Channel gradient ranged from 0.04 to 1.63 percent, and mean cross sectional area ranged from 31 to 1,227 square feet. Three macroinvertebrate samples were collected from each of 10 sites. These three samples were from areas designated as richest targeted habitats, depositional targeted habitats, and qualitative multitargeted habitats. Over 230 taxa were identified fromthese 10 sites. The North Carolina Biotic Indices ranged from 4.98 (excellent) to 6.82 (fair). River sites tended to have higher total taxa richness (91-108) than did the small, intermittent streams (49–84) or the midsize Mountain Creek (85). Intermittent streams represent fairly hostile environments for most aquatic organisms. Samples from richest targeted habitats typically were more than twice as rich as samples from depositional targeted habitats and represented from 50 to 75 percent of the taxa found at each site (mean of 62 percent). The industrial site lacked many of the mayfly taxa that were present at the undeveloped site. Mayflies are very sensitive to metals contamination, and their absence may indicate a possible problem. The supporting chemical information is not available for the industrial site, and additional study would be necessary to substantiate this possibility. The two sites with residential and golf-course land use tended to support more different types of sensitive invertebrates (that is, mayflies, stoneflies, and caddis flies) than did the forested/residential site, though the abundances of these taxa were very similar. Land-use effects were not evident based on a comparison among these sites. Indirect gradient analysis was used to determine patterns in the distribution of invertebrates and to examine the relations between these patterns and physical and chemical site characteristics determined in this study. This analysis supports the contention that the dominant factors accounting for the distribution of benthic invertebrates are associated with natural factors, such as basin size, rather than land use. Constituent loads at five study sites were calculated for nutrients, suspended sediment, and total organic carbon. The median annual total nitrogen yield ranged from 0.635 to 1.63 tons per square mile. The median annual phosphorus yield ranged from 0.046 to 0.619 ton per square mile, and the median annual orthophosphate yield ranged from 0.022 to 0.379 ton per square mile. Orthophosphate accounted for more than half of the phosphorus yield at the residential and golf-course site. The maximum suspended-sediment yield was 422 tons per square mile, and the minimum yield was 32 tons per square mile. The suspended-sediment yield at one of the sites unaffected by the Treyburn development where agricultural was being converted to urban land use was high compared to other forested basins in the Piedmont of North Carolina. Total organic carbon data sufficient for estimating loads were available at three of the five sites. Of these three sites, the undeveloped site had substantially more organic carbon yield than the other two sites. The only significant water-quality trend (alpha=0.05) was a downward trend for total nitrogen and organic nitrogen at the undeveloped site. The trend slope was small, only 0.019 milligram per liter as nitrogen or less than 9 percent of the median organic nitrogen concentration. No trend was observed for nitrite plus nitrate or for ammonia, indicating that the downward trend in total nitrogen was due only to organic nitrogen.

North Carolina↗
USGS2012

Introduction to emergent wetlands: Chapter A in Emergent wetlands status and trends in the northern Gulf of Mexico: 1950-2010

Throughout the past century, emergent wetlands have been declining across the Gulf of Mexico. Emergent wetland ecosystems provide a plethora of resources including plant and wildlife habitat, commercial and recreational economic activity, water quality improvement, and natural barriers against storms. As emergent wetland losses increase, so does the need for information on the causes and effects of these losses, for emergent wetland mapping, for monitoring and restoration efforts, and for increased education. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Gulf of Mexico Program Office (EPA GMPO) are committed to providing the best science to restore, enhance, and protect these important ecosystems. The Emergent Wetlands Status and Trends Report is a continuation of the completed Seagrass Status and Trends in the Northern Gulf of Mexico Report (Handley and others, 2007), both of which serve to update the EPA GMPO Status and Trends of Emergent and Submerged Vegetated Habitats of Gulf of Mexico Coastal Waters, USA Report (Duke and Kruczynski, 1992). The Emergent Wetlands Status and Trends Report is also part of the Gulf of Mexico Alliance Ecosystems Integration and Assessment Priority Issue Team’s work plan to provide resources that will aid in the ecological and economic enhancement of the Gulf of Mexico region. The purpose of this report is to provide scientists, managers, and citizens with valuable baseline information on the status and trends of emergent wetlands along the coast of the Gulf of Mexico. The study upon which this report is based examines the emergent wetlands of eight individual estuarine areas within the northern Gulf of Mexico region and presents statewide summaries for Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida. Each estuarine area is detailed in vignettes that address current status and historical trends of estuarine and palustrine emergent wetlands, emergent wetlands mapping and monitoring, causes of status change, restoration and enhancement activities, background information for the study area, and the methodology employed to analyze and document the historical trends and current status of emergent wetlands. The eight individual estuarine areas examined in this report are:  Corpus Christi/ Nueces/Aransas Bays, Tex.  Galveston Bay, Tex.  Barataria/Terrebonne Bay, La.  Mississippi Delta, La.  Mississippi Sound, Miss.  Mobile Bay, Ala.  Florida Panhandle, Fla.  Tampa Bay, Fla.

Report↗
USGS2021

Cape Romain partnership for coastal protection

This final report summarizes activities, outcomes, and lessons learned from a 3-year project titled “Climate Change Adaptation for Coastal National Wildlife Refuges” with the Cape Romain National Wildlife Refuge (NWR) and local partners in the surrounding South Carolina Lowcountry. The Lowcountry is classified as the 10-county area encompassing the coastal plain of South Carolina (this report specifically focuses on Berkeley, Charleston, and Georgetown Counties). The goals of this work, sponsored by the U.S. Geological Survey’s Southeast Climate Adaptation Science Center (SECASC), were to foster active engagement with stakeholders; to develop a comprehensive definition of adaptation problems faced by agencies, organizations, and individuals near the Cape Romain NWR that accounts for global change, local values, knowledge and perceptions; and to encourage social learning and building of effective networks and trust across South Carolina Lowcountry organizations and individuals. Although project scoping began at the scale of the Atlantic seaboard, by engaging with NWRs from Massachusetts to Florida, participating refuge personnel eventually selected the Cape Romain NWR to serve as a case study for testing our goals. The Cape Romain Partnership for Coastal Conservation was established to address global change impacts at a regional level and includes representation from Federal and State resource agencies, local conservation nongovernmental organizations, and organizations representing underserved community interests. Research topics, originating from discussions with Cape Romain Partnership for Coastal Conservation members, focused on quantifying key drivers of change including localized sea-level rise (SLR) predictions, estimates of coastal hurricane inundation as amplified by SLR, and urban growth trends and forecasts. These key drivers provided a foundation to engage stakeholders in planning exercises to begin a process of collective understanding and collaborative decision making. The goal of this process was to develop collective strategies of adaptation to enhance community and ecosystem resilience in the South Carolina Lowcountry. South Carolina’s Lowcountry is experiencing rapid environmental and social transformation because of SLR rates approaching twice the global average, chronic tidal flooding and catastrophic storm surges, erosion and loss of habitats that provide essential services to wildlife and humans, and increasing social polarization fueled by aggressive low-density urban growth and other forms of land conversion. To support characterizations of plausible future scenarios, we used available or, in some cases, developed new models to project future conditions of key environmental and social-economic drivers. Because of the imprecision of mean global SLR projections, the SECASC commissioned a climatological study to account for local conditions and multiple representative concentration pathways to project a tailored distribution of future sea levels. These projections were matched to SLR scenarios provided by existing models to anticipate the range of future coastal habitat changes in the South Carolina Lowcountry. SLR scenarios were also incorporated into existing storm-surge models, which do not account for alternate baseline sea levels, to project the local effects of future hurricanes. To evaluate the extent and effects of population growth and urban expansion, we relied on an existing urban-growth model to map the spatial distribution of land-conversion probabilities, the total area of which is predicted to increase twofold to threefold over the next 60 years. In addition to this simplified model, an econometric model is in development to account for nonlinear feedback dynamics in land value, land use, and ecosystem service production. Although not yet completed, the goals of this model are to produce more-detailed projections of growth dynamics and to allow predictions of development patterns resulting from alternate land-use planning policies and incentives. Collaborative planning for an uncertain future requires more than providing decision makers with information on future physical and ecological conditions; developing effective and consensual strategies must also integrate sociological values, multiple cultural perspectives, and an understanding of human behavior. To support broad stakeholder engagement in integrative approaches to adaptation planning, emphasis was placed on the importance of considering differences in how individuals perceive their environment and create meaning. Because cultural frameworks form the basis for perceptions and, ultimately, the behaviors of individuals and institutions, we describe a model of human behavior and how it can be used to understand the effect of cultural complexity and variation in perception on choices, behavioral change, and long-term maintenance of behaviors. We consider a model commonly used in the field of behavioral health that accommodates variation in human perception when describing stages of behavior and the dynamics of behavioral change. Tailoring communication and engagement activities to targeted stakeholders is likely to benefit from increased understanding of behavioral change processes. The complex nature of this problem limited the usefulness of a traditional decision-analytic approach, we explored alternative methods for engagement, collaborative learning and decision making. Recognizing that project partners and Lowcountry stakeholders may be at different stages of preparedness and interest level for modifying behavior as a function of global change, we facilitated a scenario-planning exercise to familiarize partners with this well-established approach for communicating the opportunities and threats arising under alternative, plausible futures. We developed narratives for four alternative South Carolina Lowcountry scenarios to be used in later strategic planning that focus on quantitative trends for three primary drivers with high impact and high uncertainty: manifestations of climate change, social-political shifts at a global level, and forces of local value and power structures. This scenario-planning exercise underscored the complex relation between the temporospatial scale of the production of ecological goods and services and the institutional scale at which they are managed. We then guided the partners through an assessment of the relevant strengths and weaknesses of the Cape Romain Partnership for Coastal Protection, using the threats and opportunities characterized by each scenario to understand how the partnership might respond when attempting to meet conservation and societal objectives. The partnership identified key strengths including partnership experience, outreach and technical capacities, a substantial conservation land base, and high social cohesion in the South Carolina Lowcountry. Limited communication expertise, institutional inertia, and insufficient staffing and funding were recognized as important weaknesses across the partnership. By examining and scoring combinations of internal strengths and weaknesses and external threats and opportunities, the partnership developed sets of prioritized strategies to consider in the context of a given scenario. Although we had insufficient time to examine all scenarios in detail, the intent was to identify a portfolio of strategic actions to address threats and opportunities represented in multiple plausible futures. Top-ranking strategies encompassed a range of actions that focused on strengthening the conservation community and communicating the benefits of nature (that is, ecosystem services) to leveraging partnerships to expand land protection. This report also details the methods and preliminary results of several models developed or applied in support of this project. Two parcel-selection algorithms were used to evaluate anticipated habitat changes and patterns of urban growth to guide decisions on optimal conservation reserve design to protect habitat communities. One approach used a widely available planning software (MARXAN) to maximize conservation benefits near the Cape Romain NWR, whereas the other approach was a novel application of economic theory to account for uncertainty in future conditions and for the risks of unanticipated habitat loss. This latter model applies modern portfolio theory to estimate the risk of investing in any portfolio of land parcels (that is, candidate “reserves”) under climate-change uncertainty by quantifying the variation and spatial correlation of conservation benefits derived from each portfolio. We expanded the range of actions beyond simply whether or not to invest in a set of land parcels, an approach commonly used in spatial conservation planning, to also include consideration of divestment from currently protected lands. Such refinements allow for better accounting of system dynamics and can evaluate the benefits of flexible conservation tools such as rolling easements. Model results were conditional on a decision maker’s risk tolerance but highlighted general strategies of land conservation to increase future habitat representation beyond what is expected under the current protected land base. We built models that may help inform coastal planning by estimating salinity dynamics and the performance of oyster reef restoration efforts to predict the combined effects of global change and management of freshwater flows on coastal habitats and the processes that contribute to their resilience. These models can support restoration decisions by evaluating the expected benefits of site locations for shoreline protection and fisheries production. Lastly, we developed a spatially explicit economic model that predicts feedback dynamics among land value, land-use change, and effects on ecosystem service provision to explore zoning policies and incentives on urban growth and ecosystem services. We summarize these efforts with insights and considerations for the Cape Romain Partnership for Coastal Protection to continue to engage stakeholders in effective adaptation planning. First, notions of place attachment (referred to as sense of place), and the role of culture in social discourse are increasingly being used to understand the complex interactions between society and the environment and how societies respond and adapt to climate change. Sense of place was a unifying theme whenever the future of the South Carolina Lowcountry was discussed. The contribution of the South Carolina Lowcountry’s environmental wealth, rich cultural heritage, and quality of life to sense of place has important implications for how adaptation planning might best be pursued. More community-based governance of the commons (in other words, natural and cultural resources held in common), in which broad stakeholder participation and power sharing are key elements, is considered important. This devolution of governance is characterized by polycentric institutions and self-organizing social networks that promote a local culture of knowledge sharing, problem solving, and learning. These so-called bridging organizations (or individuals) often provide the leadership necessary to bring together potentially disparate Government agencies and institutions, private organizations, and individuals in a collective process of problem solving. Our observations also suggest that the conservation community in the South Carolina Lowcountry views its activities as integral to the broader governance of social-ecological systems, in which responses to the forces of global change are mediated through culture, economics, and politics. Rather than directly competing with other interests, the South Carolina Lowcountry conservation community seems to embrace an interpretation of conservation in which the fundamental objective is the quality of human life rather than environmental protection. Fundamental to the types of governance reforms described above is the notion of coproduction, in which experts and users collaborate to develop a shared body of knowledge. In this approach, scientists work with stakeholders to help frame questions, design research, and collect and analyze data. Such sustained collaborations are increasingly believed to be an effective way to produce useable (or actionable) science. The emphasis on social learning, leveraging strong social networks, coordinating and deliberating among diverse stakeholders, and applying principles of adaptive management is an essential contribution to adaptive capacity. The diverse and robust set of scientific approaches, methods to help stakeholders collaborate in effective and goal-driven planning processes, and decision tools resulting from this project hopefully will assist Cape Romain NWR and its partners prepare for climatic, ecological, and social changes over the coming decades.

South Carolina↗
USGS2009

Geochemistry, Comparative Analysis, and Physical and Chemical Characteristics of the Thermal Waters East of Hot Springs National Park, Arkansas, 2006-09

A study was conducted by the U.S Geological Survey in cooperation with the Arkansas State Highway and Transportation Department to characterize the source and hydrogeologic conditions responsible for thermal water in a domestic well 5.5 miles east of Hot Springs National Park, Hot Springs, Arkansas, and to determine the degree of hydraulic connectivity between the thermal water in the well and the hot springs in Hot Springs National Park. The water temperature in the well, which was completed in the Stanley Shale, measured 33.9 degrees Celsius, March 1, 2006, and dropped to 21.7 degrees Celsius after 2 hours of pumping - still more than 4 degrees above typical local groundwater temperature. A second domestic well located 3 miles from the hot springs in Hot Springs National Park was discovered to have a thermal water component during a reconnaissance of the area. This second well was completed in the Bigfork Chert and field measurement of well water revealed a maximum temperature of 26.6 degrees Celsius. Mean temperature for shallow groundwater in the area is approximately 17 degrees Celsius. The occurrence of thermal water in these wells raised questions and concerns with regard to the timing for the appearance of the thermal water, which appeared to coincide with construction (including blasting activities) of the Highway 270 bypass-Highway 70 interchange. These concerns were heightened by the planned extension of the Highway 270 bypass to the north - a corridor that takes the highway across a section of the eroded anticlinal complex responsible for recharge to the hot springs of Hot Springs National Park. Concerns regarding the possible effects of blasting associated with highway construction near the first thermal well necessitated a technical review on the effects of blasting on shallow groundwater systems. Results from available studies suggested that propagation of new fractures near blasting sites is of limited extent. Vibrations from blasting can result in rock collapse for uncased wells completed in highly fractured rock. However, the propagation of newly formed large fractures that potentially could damage well structures or result in pirating of water from production wells appears to be of limited possibility based on review of relevant studies. Characteristics of hydraulic conductivity, storage, and fracture porosity were interpreted from flow rates observed in individual wells completed in the Bigfork Chert and Stanley Shale; from hydrographs produced from continuous measurements of water levels in wells completed in the Arkansas Novaculite, the Bigfork Chert, and Stanley Shale; and from a potentiometric-surface map constructed using water levels in wells throughout the study area. Data gathered from these three separate exercises showed that fracture porosity is much greater in the Bigfork Chert relative to that in the Stanley Shale, shallow groundwater flows from elevated recharge areas with exposures of Bigfork Chert along and into streams within the valleys formed on exposures of the Stanley Shale, and there was no evidence of interbasin transfer of groundwater within the shallow flow system. Fifteen shallow wells and two cold-water springs were sampled from the various exposed formations in the study area to characterize the water quality and geochemistry for the shallow groundwater system and for comparison to the geochemistry of the hot springs in Hot Springs National Park. For the quartz formations (novaculite, chert, and sandstone formations), total dissolved solids concentrations were very low with a median concentration of 23 milligrams per liter, whereas the median concentration for groundwater from the shale formations was 184 milligrams per liter. Ten hot springs in Hot Springs National Park were sampled for the study. Several chemical constituents for the hot springs, including pH, total dissolved solids, major cations and anions, and trace metals, show similarity with the shale formations

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2016

Monitoring and research on the Bi-State Distinct Population Segment of greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) in the Pine Nut Mountains, California and Nevada—Study progress report, 2011–15

The Bi-State distinct population segment (DPS) of greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) that occurs along the Nevada–California border was proposed for listing as threatened under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) in October 2013. However, in April 2015, the FWS determined that the Bi-State DPS no longer required protection under the ESA and withdrew the proposed rule to list the Bi-State DPS (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 2015). The Bi-State DPS occupies portions of Alpine, Mono, and Inyo Counties in California, and Douglas, Esmeralda, Lyon, Carson City, and Mineral Counties in Nevada. Unique threats facing this population include geographic isolation, expansion of single-leaf pinyon ( Pinus monophylla ) and Utah juniper ( Juniperus osteosperma ), anthropogenic activities, and recent changes in predator communities. Estimating population vital rates, identifying seasonal habitat, quantifying threats, and identifying movement patterns are important first steps in developing effective sage-grouse management and conservation plans. During 2011–15, we radio- and Global Positioning System (GPS)-marked (2012–14 only) 44, 47, 17, 9, and 3 sage-grouse, respectively, for a total of 120, in the Pine Nut Mountains Population Management Unit (PMU). No change in lek attendance was detected at Mill Canyon (maximum=18 males) between 2011 and 2012; however, 1 male was observed in 2014 and no males were observed in 2013 and 2015. Males were observed near Bald Mountain in 2013, making it the first year this lek was observed to be active during the study period. Males were observed at a new site in the Buckskin Range in 2014 during trapping efforts and again observed during surveys in 2015. Findings indicate that pinyon-juniper is avoided by sage-grouse during every life stage. Nesting females selected increased sagebrush cover, sagebrush height, and understory horizontal cover, and brood-rearing females selected similar areas, but also preferred increased perennial forb abundance. Using maximum likelihood estimation, nest survival for the Pine Nut Mountains PMU during 2011–14 was 23.8 percent (95-percent confidence interval [CI]=0.3–40.6 percent) and appeared lower in comparison to the average 42 percent nest success for sage-grouse range-wide. Brood survival for 50-day brood-rearing phase in the Pine Nut Mountains PMU during 2011–14 was 53.8 percent (95-percent CI=30.0–73.4 percent). Adult survival during 2011–15 was 67.4 percent (95-percent CI=56.1–76.5 percent). During 2011–14, 696 raptor/raven surveys were completed and results indicate a greater number of raven detections ( n =464) in the Pine Nut Mountains PMU than at other study areas in Nevada. These data will be used to develop a predator index. We conducted a more minimal monitoring effort of sage-grouse populations during the 2015 field season, which included trapping efforts, general telemetry, brood monitoring, and GPS monitoring. Nest monitoring, microhabitat sampling, and raptor/raven surveys were not conducted in the 2015 season. Deployment of GPS transmitters has expanded our knowledge of movement corridors and fine-scale movement patterns by sage-grouse in the Pine Nut Mountains PMU. Movement corridors between seasonal habitats were identified with one sage-grouse traveling greater than 100 kilometers south to the Bodie Mountains in California for the winter season. The use of GPS technology to monitor movements in conjunction with intensive field efforts will be important in developing habitat models and maps for the Pine Nut Mountains PMU.

California, Nevada↗
USGS2014

Magnetic studies by the Geophysical Section of the United States Geological Survey

Continued progress has been made in magnetic surveys over large sectional areas by G. R. MacCarthy. Beginning in Florida south of the Okeefenokee Swamp, magnetic traverses were measured and continued through the southern part of Georgia. The most northerly traverses crossed regions where they contacted the crystallines near the surface of the ground. All traverses were run in an east‐west direction. It is planned to continue the magnetic relief‐map described in the Transactions of 1939 of the American Geophysical Union by adding to it this portion of the State of Georgia.

Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union↗
USGS2006

Water-management studies of a stream-aquifer system, Arkansas River Valley, Colorado

A mathematical model was developed and used to simulate the stream-aquifer system in the Arkansas River valley in southeastern Colorado, from Pueblo to the Colorado-Kansas State line. The model simulates the interrelations among ground water and surface water including reservoirs, losses, and transmountain diversions, utilizing various water-distribution rules. The model was used to analyze 24 water-management plans designed to reduce shortages in the irrigation supply. One management plan simulated salvage of water from phreatophyte evapotranspiration, different reservoir operation regulations, use of imported ground and surface water, a new reservoir, additional ground-water use, and application of excess streamflow. The resulting annual dependable supply was increased from 610,000 acre-feet to 870,000 acre-feet in relation to an annual demand of 1,100,000 acre-feet. The model can be used as a tool to analyze other water-management plans.

Colorado↗
USGS2022

River channel response to invasive plant treatment across the American Southwest

Invasive riparian plants were introduced to the American Southwest in the early 19th century and contributed to regional trends of decreasing river channel width and migration rate in the 20th century. More recently, efforts to remove invasive riparian vegetation (IRV) have been widespread, especially since 1990. To what extent has IRV treatment reversed the earlier trend of channel narrowing and reduced dynamism? In this study, paired treated and untreated reaches at 15 sites along 13 rivers were compared before and after IRV treatment using repeat aerial imagery to assess long-term (~10-year) channel change due to treatment on a regional scale across the Southwest USA. We found that IRV treatment significantly increased channel width and floodplain destruction. Treated reaches had higher floodplain destruction than untreated reaches at 14 of 15 sites, and IRV treatment increased the rate of floodplain destruction by a median factor of 1.9. The effect of treatment increased with the stream power of the largest flow over the study period. Resolving observations of channel change into separate measures of floodplain destruction and formation provided more information on underlying processes than simple measurements of channel width and centerline migration rate. Restoration practitioners who perform IRV treatment projects often focus on wildlife or vegetation response; however, geomorphic processes should be considered in restoration planning because they drive aquatic habitat and vegetation dynamics, and because of the potential for damage to downstream infrastructure. Depending on the restoration goal, management practices can be used to enhance or minimize the increase in channel dynamism caused by IRV treatment.

Arizona, California, Colorado, New Mexico, Texas, ↗
USGS2018

Rivers are social–ecological systems: Time to integrate human dimensions into riverscape ecology and management

Incorporation of concepts from landscape ecology into understanding and managing riverine ecosystems has become widely known as riverscape ecology. Riverscape ecology emphasizes interactions among processes at different scales and their consequences for valued ecosystem components, such as riverine fishes. Past studies have focused strongly on understanding the ecological processes in riverscapes and how human actions modify those processes. It is increasingly clear, however, that an understanding of the drivers behind actions that lead to human modification also merit consideration, especially regarding how those drivers influence management efficacy. These indirect drivers of riverscape outcomes can be understood in the context of a diverse array of social processes, which we collectively refer to as human dimensions. Like ecological phenomena, social processes also exhibit complex interactions across spatiotemporal scales. Greater emphasis on feedbacks between social and ecological processes will lead scientists and managers to more completely understand riverscapes as complex, dynamic, interacting social–ecological systems. Emerging applications in riverscapes, as well as studies of other ecosystems, provide examples that can lead to stronger integration of social and ecological science. We argue that conservation successes within riverscapes may not come from better ecological science, improved ecosystem service analyses, or even economic incentives if the fundamental drivers of human behaviors are not understood and addressed in conservation planning and implementation.

WIREs Water↗
USGS2004

Scientific objectives and selection of targets for the SMART-1 Infrared Spectrometer (SIR)

The European SMART-1 mission to the Moon, primarily a testbed for innovative technologies, was launched in September 2003 and will reach the Moon in 2005. On board are several scientific instruments, including the point-spectrometer SMART-1 Infrared Spectrometer (SIR). Taking into account the capabilities of the SMART-1 mission and the SIR instrument in particular, as well as the open questions in lunar science, a selection of targets for SIR observations has been compiled. SIR can address at least five topics: (1) Surface/regolith processes; (2) Lunar volcanism; (3) Lunar crust structure; (4) Search for spectral signatures of ices at the lunar poles; and (5) Ground truth and study of geometric effects on the spectral shape. For each topic we will discuss specific observation modes, necessary to achieve our scientific goals. The majority of SIR targets will be observed in the nadir-tracking mode. More than 100 targets, which require off-nadir pointing and off-nadir tracking, are planned. It is expected that results of SIR observations will significantly increase our understanding of the Moon. Since the exact arrival date and the orbital parameters of the SMART-1 spacecraft are not known yet, a more detailed planning of the scientific observations will follow in the near future. ?? 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Planetary and Space Science↗
USGS2000

Chapter 4. Predicting post-fire erosion and sedimentation risk on a landscape scale

Historic fire suppression efforts have increased the likelihood of large wildfires in much of the western U.S. Post-fire soil erosion and sedimentation risks are important concerns to resource managers. In this paper we develop and apply procedures to predict post-fire erosion and sedimentation risks on a pixel-, catchment-, and landscape-scale in central and western Colorado. Our model for predicting post-fire surface erosion risk is conceptually similar to the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE). One key addition is the incorporation of a hydrophobicity risk index (HY-RISK) based on vegetation type, predicted fire severity, and soil texture. Post-fire surface erosion risk was assessed for each 90-m pixel by combining HYRISK, slope, soil erodibility, and a factor representing the likely increase in soil wetness due to removal of the vegetation. Sedimentation risk was a simple function of stream gradient. Composite surface erosion and sedimentation risk indices were calculated and compared across the 72 catchments in the study area. When evaluated on a catchment scale, two-thirds of the catchments had relatively little post-fire erosion risk. Steeper catchments with higher fuel loadings typically had the highest post-fire surface erosion risk. These were generally located along the major north-south mountain chains and, to a lesser extent, in west-central Colorado. Sedimentation risks were usually highest in the eastern part of the study area where a higher proportion of streams had lower gradients. While data to validate the predicted erosion and sedimentation risks are lacking, the results appear reasonable and are consistent with our limited field observations. The models and analytic procedures can be readily adapted to other locations and should provide useful tools for planning and management at both the catchment and landscape scale.

Journal of Sustainable Forestry↗
USGS2025

Living with wildfire in Estes Valley Fire Protection District, Larimer County, Colorado: 2023 Data report

Homeowner wildfire risk mitigation and preparedness are critical components of community wildfire readiness. This report describes the data collected through two efforts conducted in the Estes Valley Fire Protection District of Larimer County, Colorado, study area: (1) parcel-level rapid wildfire risk assessments performed by trained assessors and (2) homeowner surveys in which respondents provided self-assessments of their parcel-level wildfire risk. This project was undertaken to support Estes Valley Fire Protection District’s desire to enhance resident wildfire risk mitigation and evacuation planning. The household surveys also explored the social dimensions of wildfire, including understanding of wildfire risk, outreach or communication preferences, mitigation and evacuation preparedness activities, and perceptions of community risk reduction strategies. The results provide evidence that despite high levels of wildfire awareness and experience, respondents underestimate the risk on their properties as compared to a trained professional and have not completed important steps in the evacuation preparedness process. However, respondents would like more information on wildfire risk reduction via newsletters (mailed or emailed), community meetings, and in-person interactions.

Colorado↗