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USGS2022

Know what you don't know: Embracing state uncertainty in disease-structured multistate models

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are broadly applicable hierarchical models that derive their utility from separating state processes from observation processes yielding the data. Multistate models such as mark–recapture and dynamic multistate occupancy models are HMMs frequently used in ecology. In their early formulations, states, such as pathogen infection status, were assumed to be perfectly observed without ambiguity. However, state uncertainty is a pervasive feature of many ecological studies, and multievent models were developed to explicitly account for it. We developed a novel extended multievent mark–recapture model that incorporates state uncertainty at multiple levels of detection. Using a disease-structured example, both false negative and false positive state assignment errors are modelled at two levels of state assignment—the pathogen sampling process and the diagnostic process that samples are subjected to. We additionally describe methods to jointly model infection intensity to integrate heterogeneity in ecological parameters, such as mortality and infection dynamics, and the pathogen detection processes. We provide code to simulate and analyse datasets with various underlying ecological processes and fit our model to a mark–recapture dataset of Mixophyes fleayi (Fleay's barred frog) infected with the amphibian chytrid fungus ( Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis , Bd ). In our case study, we found evidence for various state assignment errors: the sampling protocol performed poorly in detecting Bd , pathogen detection was highly dependent on infection intensity and false positives were non-negligible. Incorporating state uncertainty yielded significantly higher estimates of infection prevalence and 4–5 times lower rates of infection state transitions compared to those obtained from a traditional multistate model. Our results highlight that incorporating state assignment errors improves inference on the ecological process, especially when sensitivity and specificity of the state assignment processes are low. The general model structure can be applied to other HMMs, providing a foundation for modelling state uncertainty in related models. For disease-structured multistate models, we recommend conducting robust design surveys and collecting samples during each capture event to facilitate incorporating pathogen detection errors.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2005

Landsat-4 and Landsat-5 thematic mapper band 6 historical performance and calibration

Launched in 1982 and 1984 respectively, the Landsat-4 and -5 Thematic Mappers (TM) are the backbone of an extensive archive of moderate resolution Earth imagery. However, these sensors and their data products were not subjected to the type of intensive monitoring that has been part of the Landsat-7 system since its launch in 1999. With Landsat-4's 11 year and Landsat-5's 20+ year data record, there is a need to understand the historical behavior of the instruments in order to verify the scientific integrity of the archive and processed products. Performance indicators of the Landsat-4 and -5 thermal bands have recently been extracted from a processing system database allowing for a more complete study of thermal band characteristics and calibration than was previously possible. The database records responses to the internal calibration system, instrument temperatures and applied gains and offsets for each band for every scene processed through the National Landsat Archive Production System (NLAPS). Analysis of this database has allowed for greater understanding of the calibration and improvement in the processing system. This paper will cover the trends in the Landsat-4 and -5 thermal bands, the effect of the changes seen in the trends, and how these trends affect the use of the thermal data.

Conference Paper↗

USGS1972

Preliminary photointerpretation map of landslide and other surficial deposits of the Mount Hamilton quadrangle and parts of the Mount Boardman and San Jose quadrangles, Alameda and Santa Clara Counties, California

The nine San Francisco Bay region counties lie within a geologically active, young, and dynamic part of the central and northern Coast Ranges of California. Significant movements of the earth's crust are occurring here at the present time, posing numerous problems to urbanization, including some of special concern. Geological processes such as fault movements, earthquakes, land subsidence, landsliding, slow downslope movement of bedrock and surficial materials, coastal and stream erosion, flooding, and sedimentation are all potentially hazardous. Because of these factors, an understanding of the operation of physical processes in the bay region is desirable for harmonious, efficient, and safe land-use planning, particularly now, with greatly expanded pressures for urban growth. This map presents preliminary information about one aspect of the physical environment necessary to sound land-use planning--the nature and distribution of surficial deposits. Because surficial deposits are common and well developed in much of the bay region, it is useful to know how and why they have formed, as well as what properties they possess. When maps like this are used in combination with other types of environmental information, such as data on soils, bedrock geology, slopes, vegetation, climatic variation, seismic response, and hydrology, it should be easier to arrive at sound decisions regarding the physical aspects of land use. The U.S. Geological Survey is studying many of these factors in the bay region and hopes to provide the community with much of the required information as part of its San Francisco Bay Region Study in cooperation with the Department of Housing and Urban Development. The representation of surficial deposits on this map reflects the way in which a geologist, working exclusively with aerial photographs, interpreted the origin of various elements of the present landscape. The deposits shown here have not been examined in the field. However, by viewing overlapping vertical aerial photographs through a stereoscope, the geologist sees a three-dimensional relief model of the ground surface and can study and interpret the origins of landforms with considerable ease. In fact, for mapping surficial deposits, particularly in reconnaissance-type studies, photointerpretation has advantages over both ground observations and laboratory studies of surficial materials. Of course, better information can be provided when all aspects of the study are integrated. These preliminary photointerpretation maps are only the first stage in a detailed study of surficial deposits in the bay region, but they should provide land-use planners with immediately useful information about the regional distribution of landslide and other surficial deposits. This map indicates the dominant surficial processes that have probably been operative by showing the distribution of different types of surficial deposits. Processes such as weathering, erosion, sedimentation, and the slow as well as rapid downslope movement of earth materials have constantly reshaped the land surface in the past and will continue to in the future, although at varying rates. The processes are interrelated to varying degrees. For example, crustal uplift of the Coast Ranges will lead to increased erosion and downcutting by streams that in turn generally results in increased deposition of sediments in river valleys, lakes, and shoreline areas. Older flood planes and river deposits may be eroded, leaving elevated terrace deposits. In addition, downcutting by streams may cause adjacent slopes to become unstable, thereby increasing the possibility of slope failures. Man's activities can alter natural physical processes in many ways. Simple acts such as overwatering a lawn or placing a septic tank drainfield in ground that is marginally stable may weaken the bedrock and surficial materials enough to induce landsliding. Relatively stable areas may be made unstable as a result of construction activities that involve cutting or oversteepening of natural slopes. Engineers, builders, conservationists, and others concerned with land use must evaluate the potential effects of all types of development, and maps that show the nature and distribution of surficial deposits should provide much of the basic information they need. This map, then, shows the cumulative effects of various processes that have yielded surficial deposits up to the time the photographs used for photointerpretation were taken. It does not indicate directly areas where processes will be most active, nor does it show the rate at which they will operate. However, knowledge of the history of geologic events is a key to understanding and predicting the evolution of an area, even where man's activities significantly change the character of the land. Almost all new landslides, for example, occur in areas with a history of landslide activity.

California↗

USGS2006

Surficial sediment character of the Louisiana offshore continental shelf region: A GIS compilation

The Louisiana coastal zone, comprising the Mississippi River delta plain stretching nearly 400 km from Sabine Pass at the Texas border east to the Chandeleur Islands at the Mississippi border, represents one of North America’s most important coastal ecosystems in terms of natural resources, human infrastructure, and cultural heritage. At the same time, this region has the highest rates of coastal erosion and wetland loss in the Nation due to a complex combination of natural processes and anthropogenic actions over the past century. Comparison of historical maps dating back to 1855 and recent aerial photography show the Louisiana coast undergoing net erosion at highly variable rates. Rates have increased significantly during the past several decades. Earlier published statewide average shoreline erosion rates were >6 m/yr; rates have increased recently to >10 m/yr. The increase is attributable to collective action of storms, rapid subsidence, and pervasive man-made alterations of the rivers and the coast. In response to the dramatic landloss, regional-scale restoration plans are being developed by a partnership of federal and state agencies for the delta plain that have the objectives of maintaining the barrier islands, reducing wetland loss, and enhancing the natural sediment delivery processes. There is growing awareness that the sustainability of coastal Louisiana's natural resources and human infrastructure depends on the successful restoration of natural geologic processes. Critical to the long term success of restoration is scientific understanding of the geologic history and processes of the coastal zone region, including interactions between the rivers, wetlands, coast, and inner shelf. A variety of geophysical studies and mapping of Late Quaternary sedimentary framework and coastal processes by U.S. Geological Survey and other scientists during the past 50 years document that the Louisiana delta plain is the product of a complex history of cyclic delta switching by the Mississippi River and its distributaries over the past ~10,000 years that resulted in laterally overlapping deltaic depocenters. The interactions among riverine, coastal, and inner shelf processes have been superimposed on the Holocene transgression resulting in distinctive landforms and sedimentary sequences. Four Holocene shelf-phase delta complexes have been identified using seismic reflection data and vibracores. Each delta complex is bounded by transgressive surfaces. Following each cycle of deposition and abandonment, the delta lobes undergo regional subsidence and marine reworking that forms transgressive coastal systems and barrier islands. Ultimately, the distal end of each of the abandoned delta lobes is marked by submerged marine sand bodies representing drowned barriers. These sand bodies (e.g. Ship Shoal, Outer Shoal, Trinity Shoal, Tiger Shoal, St. Bernard Shoal) offer the largest volumes and highest quality sand for beach nourishment and shoreline and wetlands restoration. These four large sand shoals on inner continental shelf, representing the reworked remnants of former prograded deltaic headlands that existed on the continental shelf at lower sea level, were generated in the retreat path of the Mississippi River delta plain during the Holocene transgression. Penland and others (1989) have shown these sand bodies represent former shoreline positions associated with lower still stands in sea level. Short periods of rapid relative sea-level rise led to the transgressive submergence of the shorelines which today can be recognized at the -10 m to -20 m isobaths on the Louisiana continental shelf. Trinity Shoal and Ship Shoal represent the -10 m middle-to-late Holocene shoreline trend, whereas Outer Shoal and the St. Bernard Shoals define the -20 m early Holocene shoreline trend (Penland and others, 1989). Collectively, these sand shoals constitute a large volume of high quality sandy sediment potentially suitable for barrier island nourishment and coastal restoration. The USGS has actively supported coastal and wetlands geologic research for the past two decades in partnership with universities (e.g., Louisiana State University, University of New Orleans), state agencies (e.g. Louisiana Geological Survey, Louisiana Department of Natural Resources), and private organizations (Williams and others, 1992a,b; Williams and Cichon, 1993; List and others, 1994). These studies have focused on regional-scale mapping of coastal and wetland change and developing a better understanding of the processes that cause coastal erosion and wetlands loss, particularly the rapid deterioration of Louisiana's barrier islands, estuaries, and wetlands environments. With a better understanding of these processes, the ability to model and predict erosion and wetlands loss will improve. More accurate predictions will, in turn, allow for proper management of coastal resources. Improved predictions will also allow for better assessments of the utility of different restoration alternatives.

Louisiana↗

USGS2014

Effects of wastewater effluent discharge and treatment facility upgrades on environmental and biological conditions of Indian Creek, Johnson County, Kansas, June 2004 through June 2013

Indian Creek is one of the most urban drainage basins in Johnson County, Kansas, and environmental and biological conditions of the creek are affected by contaminants from point and other urban sources. The Johnson County Douglas L. Smith Middle Basin (hereafter referred to as the “Middle Basin”) and Tomahawk Creek Wastewater Treatment Facilities (WWTFs) discharge to Indian Creek. In summer 2010, upgrades were completed to increase capacity and include biological nutrient removal at the Middle Basin facility. There have been no recent infrastructure changes at the Tomahawk Creek facility; however, during 2009, chemically enhanced primary treatment was added to the treatment process for better process settling before disinfection and discharge with the added effect of enhanced phosphorus removal. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Johnson County Wastewater, assessed the effects of wastewater effluent on environmental and biological conditions of Indian Creek by comparing two upstream sites to four sites located downstream from the WWTFs using data collected during June 2004 through June 2013. Environmental conditions were evaluated using previously and newly collected discrete and continuous data and were compared with an assessment of biological community composition and ecosystem function along the upstream-downstream gradient. This study improves the understanding of the effects of wastewater effluent on stream-water and streambed sediment quality, biological community composition, and ecosystem function in urban areas. After the addition of biological nutrient removal to the Middle Basin WWTF in 2010, annual mean total nitrogen concentrations in effluent decreased by 46 percent, but still exceeded the National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) wastewater effluent permit concentration goal of 8.0 milligrams per liter (mg/L); however, the NPDES wastewater effluent permit total phosphorus concentration goal of 1.5 mg/L or less was achieved at the Middle Basin WWTF. At the Tomahawk Creek WWTF, after the addition of chemically enhanced primary treatment in 2009, effluent discharges also had total phosphorus concentrations below 1.5 mg/L. After the addition of biological nutrient removal, annual total nitrogen and phosphorus loads from the Middle Basin WWTF decreased by 42 and 54 percent, respectively, even though effluent volume increased by 11 percent. Annual total phosphorus loads from the Tomahawk Creek WWTF after the addition of chemically enhanced primary treatment decreased by 54 percent despite a 33-percent increase in effluent volume. Total nitrogen and phosphorus from the WWTFs contributed between 30 and nearly 100 percent to annual nutrient loads in Indian Creek depending on streamflow conditions. In-stream total nitrogen primarily came from wastewater effluent except during years with the highest streamflows. Most of the in-stream total phosphorus typically came from effluent during dry years and from other urban sources during wet years. During 2010 through 2013, annual mean discharge from the Middle Basin WWTF was about 75 percent of permitted design capacity. Annual nutrient loads likely will increase when the facility is operated at permitted design capacity; however, estimated maximum annual nutrient loads from the Middle Basin WWTF were 27 to 38 percent lower than before capacity upgrades and the addition of biological nutrient removal to treatment processes. Thus, the addition of biological nutrient removal to the Middle Basin wastewater treatment process should reduce overall nutrient loads from the facility even when the facility is operated at permitted design capacity. The effects of wastewater effluent on the water quality of Indian Creek were most evident during below-normal and normal streamflows (about 75 percent of the time) when wastewater effluent represented about 24 percent or more of total streamflow. Wastewater effluent had the most substantial effect on nutrient concentrations in Indian Creek. Total and inorganic nutrient concentrations at the downstream sites during below-normal and normal streamflows were 10 to 100 times higher than at the upstream sites, even after changes in treatment practices at the WWTFs. Median total phosphorus concentrations during below-normal and normal streamflows at a downstream site were 43 percent lower following improvements in wastewater treatment processes. Similar decreases in total nitrogen were not observed, likely because total nitrogen concentrations only decreased in Middle Basin effluent and wastewater contributed a higher percentage to streamflows when nutrient samples were collected during the after-upgrade period. The wastewater effluent discharges to Indian Creek caused changes in stream-water quality that may affect biological community structure and ecosystem processes, including higher concentrations of bioavailable nutrients (nitrate and orthophosphorus) and warmer water temperatures during winter months. Other urban sources of contaminants also caused changes in stream-water quality that may affect biological community structure and ecosystem processes, including higher turbidities downstream from construction areas and higher specific conductance and chloride concentrations during winter months. Chloride concentrations exceeded acute and chronic exposure criteria at all Indian Creek study sites, regardless of wastewater influence, for weeks or months during winter. Streambed sediment chemistry was affected by wastewater (elevated nutrient and organic wastewater-indicator compound concentrations) and other contaminants from urban sources (elevated polyaromatic hydrocarbon concentrations). Overall habitat conditions were suboptimal or marginal at all sites; general decline in habitat conditions along the upstream-downstream gradient likely was caused by the cumulative effects of urbanization with increasing drainage basin size. Wastewater effluent likely affected algal periphyton biomass and community composition, primary production, and community respiration in Indian Creek. Functional stream health, evaluated using a preliminary framework based on primary production and community respiration, was mildly or severely impaired at most downstream sites relative to an urban upstream Indian Creek site. The mechanistic cause of the changes in these biological variables are unclear, though elevated nutrient concentrations were positively correlated with algal biomass, primary production, and community respiration. Macroinvertebrate communities indicated impairment at all sites, and Kansas Department of Health and Environment aquatic life support scores indicated conditions nonsupporting of aquatic life, regardless of wastewater influences. Urban influences, other than wastewater effluent discharge, likely control macroinvertebrate community structure in Indian Creek. Changes in treatment processes at the Middle Basin and Tomahawk Creek WWTFs improved wastewater effluent quality and decreased nutrient loads, but wastewater effluent discharges still had negative effects on the environmental and biological conditions at downstream Indian Creek sites. Wastewater effluent discharge into Indian Creek likely contributed to changes in measures of ecosystem structure (streamflow, water and streambed-sediment chemistry, algal biomass, and algal periphyton community composition) and function (primary production and community respiration) along the upstream-downstream gradient. Wastewater effluent discharges maintained streamflows and increased nutrient concentrations, algal biomass, primary production, and community respiration at the downstream sites. Functional stream health was severely impaired downstream from the Middle Basin WWTF and mildly impaired downstream from the Tomahawk WWTF relative to the urban upstream site. As distance from the Middle Basin WWTF increased, nutrient concentrations, algal biomass, primary production, and community respiration decreased, and functional stream health was no longer impaired 9.5 kilometers downstream from the discharge relative to the urban upstream site. Therefore, although wastewater effluent caused persistent changes in environmental and biological conditions and functional stream health at sites located immediately downstream from WWTF effluent discharges, some recovery to conditions more similar to the urban upstream site occurred within a relatively short distance.

Kansas↗

USGS2012

Methods of practice and guidelines for using survey-grade global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) to establish vertical datum in the United States Geological Survey

Geodetic surveys have evolved through the years to the use of survey-grade (centimeter level) global positioning to perpetuate and post-process vertical datum. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) uses Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) technology to monitor natural hazards, ensure geospatial control for climate and land use change, and gather data necessary for investigative studies related to water, the environment, energy, and ecosystems. Vertical datum is fundamental to a variety of these integrated earth sciences. Essentially GNSS surveys provide a three-dimensional position x, y, and z as a function of the North American Datum of 1983 ellipsoid and the most current hybrid geoid model. A GNSS survey may be approached with post-processed positioning for static observations related to a single point or network, or involve real-time corrections to provide positioning "on-the-fly." Field equipment required to facilitate GNSS surveys range from a single receiver, with a power source for static positioning, to an additional receiver or network communicated by radio or cellular for real-time positioning. A real-time approach in its most common form may be described as a roving receiver augmented by a single-base station receiver, known as a single-base real-time (RT) survey. More efficient real-time methods involving a Real-Time Network (RTN) permit the use of only one roving receiver that is augmented to a network of fixed receivers commonly known as Continually Operating Reference Stations (CORS). A post-processed approach in its most common form involves static data collection at a single point. Data are most commonly post-processed through a universally accepted utility maintained by the National Geodetic Survey (NGS), known as the Online Position User Service (OPUS). More complex post-processed methods involve static observations among a network of additional receivers collecting static data at known benchmarks. Both classifications provide users flexibility regarding efficiency and quality of data collection. Quality assurance of survey-grade global positioning is often overlooked or not understood and perceived uncertainties can be misleading. GNSS users can benefit from a blueprint of data collection standards used to ensure consistency among USGS mission areas. A classification of GNSS survey qualities provide the user with the ability to choose from the highest quality survey used to establish objective points with low uncertainties, identified as a Level I, to a GNSS survey for general topographic control without quality assurance, identified as a Level IV. A Level I survey is strictly limited to post-processed methods, whereas Level II, Level III, and Level IV surveys integrate variations of a RT approach. Among these classifications, techniques involving blunder checks and redundancy are important, and planning that involves the assessment of the overall satellite configuration, as well as terrestrial and space weather, are necessary to ensure an efficient and quality campaign. Although quality indicators and uncertainties are identified in post-processed methods using CORS, the accuracy of a GNSS survey is most effectively expressed as a comparison to a local benchmark that has a high degree of confidence. Real-time and post-processed methods should incorporate these "trusted" benchmarks as a check during any campaign. Global positioning surveys are expected to change rapidly in the future. The expansion of continuously operating reference stations, combined with newly available satellite signals, and enhancements to the conterminous geoid, are all sufficient indicators for substantial growth in real-time positioning and quality thereof.

Techniques and Methods↗

USGS2006

JUPITER: Joint Universal Parameter IdenTification and Evaluation of Reliability - An Application Programming Interface (API) for Model Analysis

he Joint Universal Parameter IdenTification and Evaluation of Reliability Application Programming Interface (JUPITER API) improves the computer programming resources available to those developing applications (computer programs) for model analysis. The JUPITER API consists of eleven Fortran-90 modules that provide for encapsulation of data and operations on that data. Each module contains one or more entities: data, data types, subroutines, functions, and generic interfaces. The modules do not constitute computer programs themselves; instead, they are used to construct computer programs. Such computer programs are called applications of the API. The API provides common modeling operations for use by a variety of computer applications. The models being analyzed are referred to here as process models, and may, for example, represent the physics, chemistry, and(or) biology of a field or laboratory system. Process models commonly are constructed using published models such as MODFLOW (Harbaugh et al., 2000; Harbaugh, 2005), MT3DMS (Zheng and Wang, 1996), HSPF (Bicknell et al., 1997), PRMS (Leavesley and Stannard, 1995), and many others. The process model may be accessed by a JUPITER API application as an external program, or it may be implemented as a subroutine within a JUPITER API application . In either case, execution of the model takes place in a framework designed by the application programmer. This framework can be designed to take advantage of any parallel processing capabilities possessed by the process model, as well as the parallel-processing capabilities of the JUPITER API. Model analyses for which the JUPITER API could be useful include, for example: Compare model results to observed values to determine how well the model reproduces system processes and characteristics. Use sensitivity analysis to determine the information provided by observations to parameters and predictions of interest. Determine the additional data needed to improve selected model predictions. Use calibration methods to modify parameter values and other aspects of the model. Compare predictions to regulatory limits. Quantify the uncertainty of predictions based on the results of one or many simulations using inferential or Monte Carlo methods. Determine how to manage the system to achieve stated objectives. The capabilities provided by the JUPITER API include, for example, communication with process models, parallel computations, compressed storage of matrices, and flexible input capabilities. The input capabilities use input blocks suitable for lists or arrays of data. The input blocks needed for one application can be included within one data file or distributed among many files. Data exchange between different JUPITER API applications or between applications and other programs is supported by data-exchange files. The JUPITER API has already been used to construct a number of applications. Three simple example applications are presented in this report. More complicated applications include the universal inverse code UCODE_2005 (Poeter et al., 2005), the multi-model analysis MMA (Eileen P. Poeter, Mary C. Hill, E.R. Banta, S.W. Mehl, and Steen Christensen, written commun., 2006), and a code named OPR_PPR (Matthew J. Tonkin, Claire R. Tiedeman, Mary C. Hill, and D. Matthew Ely, written communication, 2006). This report describes a set of underlying organizational concepts and complete specifics about the JUPITER API. While understanding the organizational concept presented is useful to understanding the modules, other organizational concepts can be used in applications constructed using the JUPITER API.

Techniques and Methods↗

USGS2007

Toward a transport-based analysis of nutrient spiraling and uptake in streams

Nutrient addition experiments are designed to study the cycling of nutrients in stream ecosystems where hydrologic and nonhydrologic processes determine nutrient fate. Because of the importance of hydrologic processes in stream ecosystems, a conceptual model known as nutrient spiraling is frequently employed. A central part of the nutrient spiraling approach is the determination of uptake length ( S w ), the average distance traveled by dissolved nutrients in the water column before uptake. Although the nutrient spiraling concept has been an invaluable tool in stream ecology, the current practice of estimating uptake length from steady‐state nutrient data using linear regression (called here the “ S w approach”) presents a number of limitations. These limitations are identified by comparing the exponential S w equation with analytical solutions of a stream solute transport model. This comparison indicates that (1) S w is an aggregate measure of uptake that does not distinguish between main channel and storage zone processes, (2) S w is an integrated measure of numerous hydrologic and nonhydrologic processes—this process integration may lead to difficulties in interpretation when comparing estimates of S w , and (3) estimates of uptake velocity and areal uptake rate ( v f and U ) based on S w are not independent of system hydrology. Given these findings, a transport‐based approach to nutrient spiraling is presented for steady‐state and time‐series data sets. The transport‐based approach for time‐series data sets is suggested for future research on nutrient uptake as it provides a number of benefits, including the ability to (1) separately quantify main channel and storage zone uptake, (2) quantify specific hydrologic and nonhydrologic processes using various model parameters (process separation), (3) estimate uptake velocities and areal uptake rates that are independent of hydrologic effects, and (4) use shortterm, non‐plateau nutrient additions such that the effects of regeneration and mineralization are minimized. In summary, the transport‐based, time‐series approach provides a means of estimating traditional measures of nutrient uptake ( S w , v f , U ) while providing additional information on the location and magnitude of uptake (main channel versus storage zone). Application of the transport‐based approach to time‐series data from Green Creek, Antarctica, indicates that the bulk of nitrate uptake (~74% to 100%) occurred within the main channel where benthic uptake by algal mats is a likely process. Substantial uptake (~26%) also occurred in the storage zone of one reach, where uptake is attributed to the microbial community.

Limnology and Oceanography: Methods↗

USGS2024

Perspectives on equitable co-production workshop report

The co-production of knowledge is increasingly recognized as an approach to conducting research intended to achieve a societal impact. In this study, we used a broad definition of co-production, defining it as “a process that brings together diverse groups to iteratively create new knowledge and practices (1).” However, co-production has been defined and conceptualized in a variety of ways (2,3), across multiple domains, including public administration, conservation, health, education, and climate change. Theoretical definitions have been introduced by scholars like Jasanoff (4) and Ostrom (5), but definitions can also be grounded in practice (6). For example, unique definitions of co-production have been advanced for work with Arctic Indigenous Peoples (7), in the context of resource management (8), and for a specific program (9). Other similar processes of engagement, such as community-based participatory research (10), action research (11), civic science (12), community science (13), and post-normal science (14) may have overlap with the concept of co-production and have been used to describe similar processes of collaboration. These distinctions and varying definitions have been discussed extensively elsewhere (see Mach et al. 2020, Wyborn et al. 2019). In the context of co-production, power plays a crucial role in shaping interactions and outcomes. Some scholars and practitioners explicitly consider power dynamics as a central element in their definitions of co-production, recognizing how power imbalances can affect participation, decision-making, and the distribution of benefits. Others, however, might not emphasize power as prominently, focusing more on the collaborative aspects without explicitly addressing the underlying power structures. This leads to divergent objectives and priorities among projects claiming to be co-produced (2,3, 6). Chambers and colleagues (2) discussed how co-production projects in the context of sustainability usually emphasize one or more of six different goals, including: researching solutions, empowering voices, brokering power, reframing power, navigating differences, and reframing agency. Because power dynamics are inherent in co-production (15), equity dimensions should be considered in these definitions and conceptualizations. Yet, in the context of government or academically led climate change research and programs, equity is a relatively new focus, even among programs that have been engaging a co-production approach for decades (9). Alternatively, in some recent work the concept of equity in co-production is explicit, but it has only been considered in a limited context (7). Here, we present a discussion about co-production that is informed by research, practice, and community perspectives across partnerships from a range of regions and topics. We are specifically interested in how different actors in these projects think about equity and work towards more equitable approaches in the context of their co-production work. This understanding is needed, as the federal government has increasingly focused on co-production approaches in the design of their programs and funding calls, and most recently the Biden administration has called on federal agencies to more intentionally center equity for underserved groups of people in their work (16). Furthermore, with the Biden administration’s focus on environmental and climate justice, the opportunity for researchers and their societal partners to engage in co-production is expanding. Numerous programs within federal agencies have embraced a co-production approach, such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Adaptation Partnerships (CAP; formerly called the Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments or RISA program) (9,17), Department of the Interior (DOI) Climate Adaptation Science Centers (CASCs)(18), and the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Climate Hubs. However, the actual implementation of co-production processes varies significantly (1,19), with multiple implications for the design of equitable partnerships. Researchers, their partners, and funders have frequently cited many tensions and challenges in the successful implementation of co-production, including higher resource demands and few systemic structures for support (20). Practically implementing co-production, especially with people who have been underrepresented in or historically excluded from research activities, must consider fairness and the accessibility of co-production processes. While co-production is often cited as important for environmental governance, issues like power and equity are infrequently addressed (15). To explore this topic, we identified and studied three projects that centered on equity in co-production from three federal climate programs (CASC, CAP, USDA Climate Hubs) in three different regions of the U.S. (Alaska, Northeast, Southeast). We aimed to identify consensus or divergence in perspectives related to equitable co-production processes to elevate effective practices and link co-production research and practice. Findings from interviews and a survey (explained further in Akerlof et al., 2023) informed a twoday hybrid workshop involving participants from the three case studies, as well as individuals representing research, governmental, non-governmental, and community organizations across the United States. Participants also included scholars of co-production, program coordinators, and people who participated in co-production projects on behalf of their communities. Several boundary spanners, those practitioners who work at the intersection of the production and use of science (21,22), also attended the workshop. The goals of the workshop were to discuss and build on what was learned from the three case studies, discuss the three distinct perspectives on equitable co-production that emerged from the pre-workshop research, and draft a framework for equitable co-production processes. During the workshop, participants considered the three perspectives on equitable co-production, defining equitable co-production for each and discussing the practical implications of each, including barriers and priorities for overcoming them. We aimed to address the question: How can federal climate programs support equitable co-production processes?

Report↗

USGS2016

Estimating species – area relationships by modeling abundance and frequency subject to incomplete sampling

Models and data used to describe species–area relationships confound sampling with ecological process as they fail to acknowledge that estimates of species richness arise due to sampling. This compromises our ability to make ecological inferences from and about species–area relationships. We develop and illustrate hierarchical community models of abundance and frequency to estimate species richness. The models we propose separate sampling from ecological processes by explicitly accounting for the fact that sampled patches are seldom completely covered by sampling plots and that individuals present in the sampling plots are imperfectly detected. We propose a multispecies abundance model in which community assembly is treated as the summation of an ensemble of species-level Poisson processes and estimate patch-level species richness as a derived parameter. We use sampling process models appropriate for specific survey methods. We propose a multispecies frequency model that treats the number of plots in which a species occurs as a binomial process. We illustrate these models using data collected in surveys of early-successional bird species and plants in young forest plantation patches. Results indicate that only mature forest plant species deviated from the constant density hypothesis, but the null model suggested that the deviations were too small to alter the form of species–area relationships. Nevertheless, results from simulations clearly show that the aggregate pattern of individual species density–area relationships and occurrence probability–area relationships can alter the form of species–area relationships. The plant community model estimated that only half of the species present in the regional species pool were encountered during the survey. The modeling framework we propose explicitly accounts for sampling processes so that ecological processes can be examined free of sampling artefacts. Our modeling approach is extensible and could be applied to a variety of study designs and allows the inclusion of additional environmental covariates.

Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2002

Establishing aquatic restoration priorities using a watershed approach

Since the passage of the Clean Water Act in 1972, the United States has made great strides to reduce the threats to its rivers, lakes, and wetlands from pollution. However, despite our obvious successes, nearly half of the nation’s surface water resources remain incapable of supporting basic aquatic values or maintaining water quality adequate for recreational swimming. The Clean Water Act established a significant federal presence in water quality regulation by controlling point and non-point sources of pollution. Point-sources of pollution were the major emphasis of the Act, but Section 208 specifically addressed non-point sources of pollution and designated silviculture and livestock grazing as sources of non-point pollution. Non-point source pollutants include runoff from agriculture, municipalities, timber harvesting, mining, and livestock grazing. Non-point source pollution now accounts for more than half of the United States water quality impairments. To successfully improve water quality, restoration practitioners must start with an understanding of what ecosystem processes are operating in the watershed and how they have been affected by outside variables. A watershed-based analysis template developed in the Pacific Northwest can be a valuable aid in developing that level of understanding. The watershed analysis technique identifies four ecosystem scales useful to identify stream restoration priorities: region, basin, watershed, and site. The watershed analysis technique is based on a set of technically rigorous and defensible procedures designed to provide information on what processes are active at the watershed scale, how those processes are distributed in time and space. They help describe what the current upland and riparian conditions of the watershed are and how these conditions in turn influence aquatic habitat and other beneficial uses. The analysis is organized as a set of six steps that direct an interdisciplinary team of specialists to examine the biotic and abiotic processes influencing aquatic habitat and species abundance. This process helps develop an understanding of the watershed within the context of the larger ecosystem. The understanding gained can then be used to identify and prioritize aquatic restoration activities at the appropriate temporal and spatial scale. The watershed approach prevents relying solely on site-level information, a common problem with historic restoration efforts. When the watershed analysis process was used in the Whitefish Mountains of northwest Montana, natural resource professionals were able to determine the dominant habitat forming processes important for native fishes and use that information to prioritize, plan, and implement the appropriate restoration activities at the watershed scale. Despite considerable investments of time and resources needed to complete an analysis at the watershed scale, the results can prevent the misdiagnosis of aquatic problems and help ensure that the objectives of aquatic restoration will be met.

Journal of Environmental Management↗

USGS2007

Interactions across spatial scales among forest dieback, fire, and erosion in northern New Mexico landscapes

Ecosystem patterns and disturbance processes at one spatial scale often interact with processes at another scale, and the result of such cross-scale interactions can be nonlinear dynamics with thresholds. Examples of cross-scale pattern-process relationships and interactions among forest dieback, fire, and erosion are illustrated from northern New Mexico (USA) landscapes, where long-term studies have recently documented all of these disturbance processes. For example, environmental stress, operating on individual trees, can cause tree death that is amplified by insect mortality agents to propagate to patch and then landscape or even regional-scale forest dieback. Severe drought and unusual warmth in the southwestern USA since the late 1990s apparently exceeded species-specific physiological thresholds for multiple tree species, resulting in substantial vegetation mortality across millions of hectares of woodlands and forests in recent years. Predictions of forest dieback across spatial scales are constrained by uncertainties associated with: limited knowledge of species-specific physiological thresholds; individual and site-specific variation in these mortality thresholds; and positive feedback loops between rapidly-responding insect herbivore populations and their stressed plant hosts, sometimes resulting in nonlinear “pest” outbreak dynamics. Fire behavior also exhibits nonlinearities across spatial scales, illustrated by changes in historic fire regimes where patch-scale grazing disturbance led to regional-scale collapse of surface fire activity and subsequent recent increases in the scale of extreme fire events in New Mexico. Vegetation dieback interacts with fire activity by modifying fuel amounts and configurations at multiple spatial scales. Runoff and erosion processes are also subject to scale-dependent threshold behaviors, exemplified by ecohydrological work in semiarid New Mexico watersheds showing how declines in ground surface cover lead to non-linear increases in bare patch connectivity and thereby accelerated runoff and erosion at hillslope and watershed scales. Vegetation dieback, grazing, and fire can change land surface properties and cross-scale hydrologic connectivities, directly altering ecohydrological patterns of runoff and erosion. The interactions among disturbance processes across spatial scales can be key drivers in ecosystem dynamics, as illustrated by these studies of recent landscape changes in northern New Mexico. To better anticipate and mitigate accelerating human impacts to the planetary ecosystem at all spatial scales, improvements are needed in our conceptual and quantitative understanding of cross-scale interactions among disturbance processes.

New Mexico↗

USGS1958

The solusphere - its inferences and study

Water is a fundamental geologic agent active in rock decomposition, erosion, and synthesis. Solutes in water are of particular interest to geochemists as sources of raw material for synthesis or as products of decomposition. When geochemical studies move from the laboratory into natural environment many variables relating to solute hydrology must be considered. As a focal point there has been designed a graphical representation of solute hydrology, the solusphere, which embodies the concepts of land-water occurrence and movement on which are superimposed geologic, biologic, physical, chemical, and cultural processes affecting solutes. The solusphere is demonstrated by passing an imaginary plane through the centre of the earth. This plane intercepts concentric zones designated as rock flowage, saturation, aeration, surface activity, and atmosphere. Transport processes carry solutes within and between zones without alteration or conversion. However, whether stationary or in motion, the water's solute character is constantly subject to (1) alteration processes that change concentration by addition or subtraction of solutes or solvent without loss of solute identities, and (2) conversion processes that change the chemical state and form of solutes. The geochemist is concerned with specific conversion processes, but he also must consider transport, alteration, and other conversion processes that are continually modifying the materials with which he is dealing in nature. The solusphere is an attempt to organize processes affecting the chemical quality of land waters into a unified field of science much like the field of marine chemistry.

Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta↗

USGS2019

Geomorphic controls on hyporheic exchange across scales - Watersheds to particles

We examined the relationship between fluvial geomorphology and hyporheic exchange flows. We use geomorphology as a framework to understand hyporheic processes and how these processes change with location within a stream network, and over time in response to changes in stream discharge and catchment wetness. We focus primarily on hydrostatic and hydrodynamic processes—the processes where linkages to fluvial geomorphology are most direct. Hydrostatic processes result from morphologic features that create elevational head gradients whereas hydrodynamic processes result from the interaction between stream flow and channel morphologic features. We provide examples of the specific morphologic features that drive or enable hyporheic exchange and we examine how these processes interact in real stream networks to create complex subsurface flow nets through the hyporheic zone.

Book chapter↗

USGS2017

Observations and 3D hydrodynamics-based modeling of decadal-scale shoreline change along the Outer Banks, North Carolina

Long-term decadal-scale shoreline change is an important parameter for quantifying the stability of coastal systems. The decadal-scale coastal change is controlled by processes that occur on short time scales (such as storms) and long-term processes (such as prevailing waves). The ability to predict decadal-scale shoreline change is not well established and the fundamental physical processes controlling this change are not well understood. Here we investigate the processes that create large-scale long-term shoreline change along the Outer Banks of North Carolina, an uninterrupted 60 km stretch of coastline, using both observations and a numerical modeling approach. Shoreline positions for a 24-yr period were derived from aerial photographs of the Outer Banks. Analysis of the shoreline position data showed that, although variable, the shoreline eroded an average of 1.5 m/yr throughout this period. The modeling approach uses a three-dimensional hydrodynamics-based numerical model coupled to a spectral wave model and simulates the full 24-yr time period on a spatial grid running on a short (second scale) time-step to compute the sediment transport patterns. The observations and the model results show similar magnitudes (O(10 5 m 3 /yr)) and patterns of alongshore sediment fluxes. Both the observed and the modeled alongshore sediment transport rates have more rapid changes at the north of our section due to continuously curving coastline, and possible effects of alongshore variations in shelf bathymetry. The southern section with a relatively uniform orientation, on the other hand, has less rapid transport rate changes. Alongshore gradients of the modeled sediment fluxes are translated into shoreline change rates that have agreement in some locations but vary in others. Differences between observations and model results are potentially influenced by geologic framework processes not included in the model. Both the observations and the model results show higher rates of erosion (∼−1 m/yr) averaged over the northern half of the section as compared to the southern half where the observed and modeled averaged net shoreline changes are smaller (<0.1 m/yr). The model indicates accretion in some shallow embayments, whereas observations indicate erosion in these locations. Further analysis identifies that the magnitude of net alongshore sediment transport is strongly dominated by events associated with high wave energy. However, both big- and small- wave events cause shoreline change of the same order of magnitude because it is the gradients in transport, not the magnitude, that are controlling shoreline change. Results also indicate that alongshore momentum is not a simple balance between wave breaking and bottom stress, but also includes processes of horizontal vortex force, horizontal advection and pressure gradient that contribute to long-term alongshore sediment transport. As a comparison to a more simple approach, an empirical formulation for alongshore sediment transport is used. The empirical estimates capture the effect of the breaking term in the hydrodynamics-based model, however, other processes that are accounted for in the hydrodynamics-based model improve the agreement with the observed alongshore sediment transport.

North Carolina↗

USGS2004

Recycling of construction debris as aggregate in the Mid-Atlantic Region, USA

Reclaimed asphalt pavement (RAP) and portland cement concrete (RPCC) are abundant and available substitutes for natural aggregate in many areas. This paper presents an overview of factors that affect recycled aggregate cost, availability, and engineering performance, and the results of a survey of business practices in the Mid-Atlantic region. For RAP, processing costs are less than those for virgin natural aggregate. Use of efficient asphalt pavement stripping technology, on-site reclamation, and linked two-way transport of asphalt debris and processed asphalt paving mix between asphalt mix plants and paving sites has led to extensive recycling of asphalt pavement in the Mid-Atlantic region of the US. Most of the sites that recycle asphalt pavement (RAP) are located in or near urban areas close to important transportation corridors. RPCC is a viable aggregate source in urban settings where unit costs for processed aggregate from RPCC and natural aggregate are comparable. Disposal fees charged at RPCC recycling sites help defray processing costs and the significantly lower tipping fees at recycling sites versus landfill disposal sites encourage recycling of construction debris as aggregate. Construction contractors and construction debris recycling centers, many of which have the ability to crush and process concrete debris at the job site, produce most RPCC. Production of RPCC aggregate from construction debris that is processed on site using portable equipment moved to the construction site eliminates transportation costs for aggregate and provides an economic incentive for RPCC use. Processing costs, quality and performance issues, and lack of large quantities where needed limit RPCC use. Most RPCC suppliers in the Mid-Atlantic area are located in counties with population densities greater than 400 people/km2 (1036 people/mile2) and that have high unit-value costs and limited local availability of natural aggregate. ?? 2004 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2020

Animal movement models with mechanistic selection functions

A suite of statistical methods are used to study animal movement. Most of these methods treat animal trajectory data in one of three ways: as discrete pro- cesses, as continuous processes, or as point processes. We brie y review each of these approaches and then focus in on the latter. In the context of point processes, so-called resource selection analyses are among the most common way to statis- tically treat animal trajectory data. However, most resource selection analyses provide inference based on approximations of point process models. The forms of these models have been limited to a few types of specications that provide infer- ence about relative resource use and, less commonly, probability of use. For more general spatio-temporal point process models, the most common type of analysis often proceeds with a data augmentation approach that is used to create a binary data set that can be analyzed with conditional logistic regression. We show that the conditional logistic regression likelihood can be generalized to accommodate a variety of alternative specications related to resource selection. We then provide an example of a case where a spatio-temporal point process model coincides with that implied by a mechanistic model for movement expressed as a partial dier- ential equation derived from rst principles of movement. We demonstrate that inference from this form of point process model is intuitive (and could be useful for management and conservation) by analyzing a set of telemetry data from a mountain lion in Colorado, USA, to understand the eects of spatially explicit environmental conditions on movement behavior of this species.

Spatial Statistics↗

USGS2003

Analysis of a municipal wastewater treatment plant using a neural network-based pattern analysis

This paper addresses the problem of how to capture the complex relationships that exist between process variables and to diagnose the dynamic behaviour of a municipal wastewater treatment plant (WTP). Due to the complex biological reaction mechanisms, the highly time-varying, and multivariable aspects of the real WTP, the diagnosis of the WTP are still difficult in practice. The application of intelligent techniques, which can analyse the multi-dimensional process data using a sophisticated visualisation technique, can be useful for analysing and diagnosing the activated-sludge WTP. In this paper, the Kohonen Self-Organising Feature Maps (KSOFM) neural network is applied to analyse the multi-dimensional process data, and to diagnose the inter-relationship of the process variables in a real activated-sludge WTP. By using component planes, some detailed local relationships between the process variables, e.g., responses of the process variables under different operating conditions, as well as the global information is discovered. The operating condition and the inter-relationship among the process variables in the WTP have been diagnosed and extracted by the information obtained from the clustering analysis of the maps. It is concluded that the KSOFM technique provides an effective analysing and diagnosing tool to understand the system behaviour and to extract knowledge contained in multi-dimensional data of a large-scale WTP. ?? 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Water Research↗