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Peak streamflow trends in Montana and northern Wyoming and their relation to changes in climate, water years 1921–2020

Frequency analysis on annual peak streamflow (hereinafter, peak flow) is essential to water-resources management applications, including critical structure design (for example, bridges and culverts) and floodplain mapping. Nonstationarity is a statistical property of a peak-flow series such that the distributional properties (the mean, variance, or skew) change either gradually (monotonic trend) or abruptly (shift, step change or change point) through time. Not incorporating or accounting for observed nonstationarity into peak-flow frequency analysis might result in a poor representation of the true probability of large floods and thus misrepresent the actual flood risks to life and property. This report summarizes how hydroclimatic variability might affect the temporal and spatial distributions of peak-flow data in the State of Montana (and northern Wyoming) and is part of a larger study to document peak-flow nonstationarity and hydroclimatic changes across a nine-State region consisting of Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin. A wide range of analyses and statistical approaches are applied to document the primary mechanisms controlling floods and characterize temporal changes in hydroclimatic variables and peak flows. This study was completed in cooperation with the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation. The purpose of this report is to characterize temporal and spatial patterns of nonstationarity in peak flows and hydroclimatology in Montana and northern Wyoming. In this evaluation, peak-flow, daily streamflow, and model-simulated gridded climatic data were examined for monotonic trends, change points, and other statistical properties that might indicate changing climatic and environmental conditions. This report includes background information on the study area, the history of U.S. Geological Survey peak-flow data collection and frequency analysis in Montana, and the review of research relating to hydroclimatic variability and change in Montana. This study might help provide a framework for addressing potential nonstationarity issues in peak-flow frequency updates that commonly are completed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with other agencies throughout the Nation. The analytical structure of this study includes analyses of monotonic trends and change points in numerous hydroclimatic variables in assigned 30-, 50-, 75-, and 100-year analysis periods. For Montana and part of Wyoming, the 30-, 50-, 75, and 100-year analyses included 157, 70, 48, and 12 streamgages, respectively. For those streamgages, nonstationarities were analyzed in the following variables: (1) climatic variables, including annual and seasonal (winter, spring, summer, and fall) temperature and precipitation; (2) daily streamflow variables, including the annual center of volume duration, annual center of volume median, and peaks over threshold with a mean of four events per year; and (3) annual peak-flow variables, including peak-flow timing and magnitude. A likelihood approach was used to express statistical confidence and assign the nonstationarity results as likely upward or downward (highest statistical confidence), somewhat likely upward or downward (less statistical confidence), or about as likely as not (little statistical confidence; hereinafter, neutral). For the nonstationarity analyses of the climatic, daily streamflow, and peak-flow variables, the results are presented in detail and discussed with respect to statewide patterns and geographic variability. For each of the 30-, 50-, and 75-year analyses, peak-flow change-point and monotonic trend analyses were compiled for streamgages classified with likely downward or likely upward trends. For those streamgages, the associated basin characteristics and nonstationarity results for peak-flow timing, daily streamflow, and climatic variables were investigated and statistically compared to discern associations among other variables that might contribute to the peak-flow nonstationarity results. The 50- and 75-year peak-flow nonstationarities identified in this study are mostly downward, in association with mostly upward temperature and potential evapotranspiration:precipitation monotonic trends. For the 50-, 75-, and 100-year analyses, the peak-flow change points are predominantly downward and are concentrated in the 1970s and 1980s, which indicates general consistency among the longer trend periods. These findings are in association with substantial research documenting globally rising temperature and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations that might be largely attributed to anthropogenic activities. Anthropogenic effects might represent long-term (on the order of several decades to more than a century) climate changes that might happen within highly variable natural climate fluctuations. Several paleo studies in the north-central United States have indicated that hydroclimatic extremes (that is, low- and high-streamflow conditions) before European settlement have been outside of extremes since the 1900s. Depending on the interactions of anthropogenic effects and natural climate variability, extreme high-streamflow conditions might occur in the future, even in the presence of long-term downward peak-flow trends.

Montana, Wyoming↗

Monitoring and simulation of hydrology, suspended sediment, and nutrients in selected tributary watersheds of Lake Erie, New York

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Erie County, New York, the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation, and the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative, collected water-quality samples in nine selected New York tributaries to Lake Erie, computed estimates of suspended sediment and nutrient loads using the R scripting package rloadest and used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to simulate hydrology and suspended sediment and nutrient loads from these tributaries. This project was undertaken to better understand the water quality of New York’s inputs into eastern Lake Erie. Water-quality samples for suspended sediment, nitrogen, and phosphorus were collected at 19 sampling sites in the Lake Erie Basin in New York. Daily and monthly suspended sediment and nutrient loads were computed with regressions of streamflow and suspended sediment and nutrient concentrations using rloadest. SWAT models of nine watersheds were created using publicly available data; and the loads calculated by rloadest. Twenty-six SWAT model scenarios were created to explore the effects that best management practices (BMPs; 21 scenarios), point source discharges (4 scenarios), and green infrastructure (1 scenario) can have on the water quality of the nine tributaries to Lake Erie. BMP scenarios for the watershed models included combinations of agricultural BMPs applied at varying implementation levels across the study watersheds, including cover crops, reduced tillage, nutrient management plans, and filter strips. The BMP scenarios showed small reductions of total nitrogen and total phosphorus. The scenarios have variable suspended sediment load results, with both increases and decreases of sediment modeled. The point source scenarios result in lower total phosphorus loads. The green infrastructure scenario shows only minimal reduction of suspended sediment and nutrient loads from the Buffalo River watershed but shows substantial reductions locally.

New York↗

Iodine-129 in the eastern Snake River Plain aquifer at and near the Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho, 2021–22

Between the 1950s and 1980s, wastewater generated at the Idaho National Laboratory contained Iodine-129 ( 129 I); this wastewater was discharged directly into the eastern Snake River Plain (ESRP) aquifer through a deep disposal well, unlined infiltration ponds, or leaked from distribution systems below industrial facilities. During 2021–22, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Energy and the Idaho Department of Environmental Quality Idaho National Laboratory Oversight Program, collected groundwater samples from 64 monitoring wells in the ESRP aquifer, 6 of which are part of a multilevel monitoring system, to determine the concentration of 129 I in the groundwater. These samples were analyzed by accelerator mass spectrometry as part of a long-term ongoing study to track trends and occurrences of this carcinogenic, long-lived radionuclide in the environment. Concentrations ranged from slightly above the locally determined background concentration of 5.4×10 −6 picocuries per liter, to just below the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s maximum contaminant level of 1 picocurie per liter. Discharge of wastewater containing 129 I has been discontinued to the aquifer, and long-term trends from a subset (n=15) of sampled wells show decreasing 129 I concentrations over the last three decades. Concentrations of 129 I in groundwater from monitoring wells near facilities at the Idaho National Laboratory are affected by episodic recharge from an ephemeral surface-water source and by the fracture-flow dominated hydrologic regime in the ESRP aquifer. The spatially focused sampling effort has also identified a low-level 129 I plume that affects long-term water quality near and downgradient from the Advanced Test Reactor Complex in the southwestern part of the facility that had not been clearly defined in previous sampling efforts, although the definition of the plume is somewhat limited by available data.

Idaho↗

Estimating Prediction Uncertainty from Geographical Information System Raster Processing: A User's Manual for the Raster Error Propagation Tool (REPTool)

The U.S. Geological Survey Raster Error Propagation Tool (REPTool) is a custom tool for use with the Environmental System Research Institute (ESRI) ArcGIS Desktop application to estimate error propagation and prediction uncertainty in raster processing operations and geospatial modeling. REPTool is designed to introduce concepts of error and uncertainty in geospatial data and modeling and provide users of ArcGIS Desktop a geoprocessing tool and methodology to consider how error affects geospatial model output. Similar to other geoprocessing tools available in ArcGIS Desktop, REPTool can be run from a dialog window, from the ArcMap command line, or from a Python script. REPTool consists of public-domain, Python-based packages that implement Latin Hypercube Sampling within a probabilistic framework to track error propagation in geospatial models and quantitatively estimate the uncertainty of the model output. Users may specify error for each input raster or model coefficient represented in the geospatial model. The error for the input rasters may be specified as either spatially invariant or spatially variable across the spatial domain. Users may specify model output as a distribution of uncertainty for each raster cell. REPTool uses the Relative Variance Contribution method to quantify the relative error contribution from the two primary components in the geospatial model - errors in the model input data and coefficients of the model variables. REPTool is appropriate for many types of geospatial processing operations, modeling applications, and related research questions, including applications that consider spatially invariant or spatially variable error in geospatial data.

Techniques and Methods↗

Interpreting and Reporting Radiological Water-Quality Data

This document provides information to U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Water Science Centers on interpreting and reporting radiological results for samples of environmental matrices, most notably water. The information provided is intended to be broadly useful throughout the United States, but it is recommended that scientists who work at sites containing radioactive hazardous wastes need to consult additional sources for more detailed information. The document is largely based on recognized national standards and guidance documents for radioanalytical sample processing, most notably the Multi-Agency Radiological Laboratory Analytical Protocols Manual (MARLAP), and on documents published by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the American National Standards Institute. It does not include discussion of standard USGS practices including field quality-control sample analysis, interpretive report policies, and related issues, all of which shall always be included in any effort by the Water Science Centers. The use of 'shall' in this report signifies a policy requirement of the USGS Office of Water Quality.

Techniques and Methods↗

Hydrology and the effects of selected agricultural best-management practices in the Bald Eagle Creek watershed, York County, Pennsylvania, prior to and during nutrient management: Water-quality study for the Chesapeake Bay Program

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Susquehanna River Basin Commission and the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Resources, conducted a study as part of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Chesapeake Bay Program to determine the effects of nutrient management of surface-water quality by reducing animal units in a 0.43-square-mile agricultural watershed in York County. The study was conducted primarily from October 1985 through September 1990 prior to and during the implementation of nutrient-management practices designed to reduce nutrient and sediment discharges. Intermittent sampling continued until August 1991. The Bald Eagle Creek Basin is underlain by schist and quartzite. About 87 percent of the watershed is cropland and pasture. Nearly 33 percent of the cropland was planted in corn prior to nutrient management, whereas 22 percent of the cropland was planted in corn during the nutrient-management phase. The animal population was reduced by 49 percent during nutrient management. Average annual applications of nitrogen and phosphorus from manure to cropland were reduced by 3,940 pounds (39 percent) and 910 pounds (46 percent), respectively, during nutrient management. A total of 94,560 pounds of nitrogen (538 pounds per acre) and 26,400 pounds of phosphorus (150 pounds per acre) were applied to the cropland as commercial fertilizer and manure during the 5-year study. Core samples from the top 4 feet of soil were collected prior to and during nutrient management and analyzed from concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus. The average amount of nitrate nitrogen in the soil ranged from 36 to 135 pounds per acre, and soluble phosphorus ranged from 0.39 to 2.5 pounds per acre, prior to nutrient management. During nutrient management, nitrate nitrogen in the soil ranged from 21 to 291 pounds per acre and soluble phosphorus ranged from 0.73 to 1.7 pounds per acre. Precipitation was about 18 percent below normal and streamflow was about 35 percent below normal prior to nutrient management, whereas precipitation was 4 percent above normal and streamflow was 3 percent below normal during the first 2 years of nutrient management. Eighty-four percent of the 20.44 inches of streamflow was base flow prior to nutrient management and 54 percent of the 31.14 inches of streamflow was base flow during the first 2 years of the nutrient-management phase. About 31 percent of the measured precipitation during the first 4 years of the study was discharged as surface water; the remaining 69 percent was removed as evapotranspiration or remained in ground-water storage. Median concentrations of total nitrogen and dissolved nitrate plus nitrite in base flow increased from 4.9 and 4.1 milligrams per liter as nitrogen, respectively, prior to nutrient management to 5.8 and 5.0 milligrams per liter, respectively, during nutrient management. Median concentrations of ammonia nitrogen and organic nitrogen did not change significantly in base flow. Median concentrations of total and dissolved phosphorus in base flow did not change significantly and were 0.05 and 0.03 milligrams per liter as phosphorus, respectively, prior to the management phase, and 0.05 and 0.04 milligrams per liter, respectively, during the management phase.

Pennsylvania↗

Effects of agricultural best-management practices on the Brush Run Creek headwaters, Adams County, Pennsylvania, prior to and during nutrient management

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Susquehanna River Basin Commission and the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Resources, investigated the effects of agricultural best-management practices on surface-water quality as part of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Chesapeake Bay Program. This report characterizes a 0.63-square- mile agricultural watershed underlain by shale, mudstone, and red arkosic sandstone in the Lower Susquehanna River Basin. The water quality of the Brush Run Creek site was studied from October 1985 through September 1991, prior to and during the implementation of nutrient management designed to reduce sediment and nutrient discharges into Conewago Creek, a tributary to the Chesapeake Bay. The original study area was 0.38 square mile and included an area immediately upstream from a manure lagoon. The study area was increased to 0.63 square mile in the fall of 1987 after an extensive tile-drain network was discovered upstream and downstream from the established streamflow gage, and the farm owner made plans to spray irrigate manure to the downstream fields. Land use for about 64 percent of the 0.63 square mile watershed is cropland, 14 percent is pasture, 7 percent is forest, and the remaining 15 percent is yards, buildings, water, or gardens. About 73 percent of the cropland was used to produce corn during the study. The average annual animal population consisted of 57,000 chickens, 1,530 hogs, and 15 sheep during the study. About 59,340 pounds of nitrogen and 13,710 pounds of phosphorus were applied as manure and commercial fertilizer to fields within the subbasin during the 3-year period prior to implementation of nutrient management. During nutrient management, about 14 percent less nitrogen and 57 percent less phosphorus were applied as commercial and manure fertilizer. Precipitation totaled 209 inches, or 13 percent less than the long-term normal, during the 6-year study. Concentrations of total ammonia in precipitation were as high as 2.7 mg/L (milligrams per liter); in dry deposition the concentrations were as high as 5.4 mg/L, probably because of the ammonia that had volatilized from the manure-storage lagoon. Nitrate nitrogen in the upper 4 feet of the soil ranged from 17 to 452 pounds per acre and soluble phosphorus content ranged from 0.29 to 65 pounds per acre. The maximum concentration of total nitrogen was 2,400 mg/L on September 10, 1986, in discharge from the tile drain near the streamflow gage. Median concentrations of total nitrogen and dissolved nitrite plus nitrate in base flow at the water-quality gage were 14 mg/L and 4.4 mg/L, respectively; prior to nutrient management and during nutrient management, median concentrations were 14 mg/L and 6.2 mg/L, respectively. Significant reductions in total phosphorus and suspended-sediment concentrations occurred at the water-quality gage. The maximum concentrations of total phosphorus (160 mg/L) and suspended sediment (3,530 mg/L) were measured at a tile line above the water-quality gage. Concentrations of total nitrogen, dissolved ammonia, and total phosphorus in base flow increased during dry periods when discharges from the tile drain were not diluted. During nutrient management, only base-flow loads of suspended sediment increased. Total streamflow was about 121.8 inches. About 81 percent was storm runoff. Loads of total nitrogen, total phosphorus in stormflow, and suspended sediment increased 14, 44, and 41 percent during nutrient management, respectively. A load of about 787,780 pounds of sediment, 22,418 pounds of nitrogen, and 5,479 pounds of phosphorus was measured during 214 sampled stormflow days that represented 84 percent of the stormflow. About 812,924 pounds of sediment, 38,421 pounds of nitrogen, and 6,377 pounds of phosphorus were discharged during the 6-year study.

Pennsylvania↗

Factors affecting phosphorus transport at a conventionally-farmed site in Lancaster County, Pennsylvania, 1992-95

The U.S. Geological Survey and the Bureau of Land and Water Conservation of the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection conducted a cooperative study to determine the effects of manure application and antecedent soil-phosphorus concentrations on the transport of phosphorus from the soil of a typical farm site in Lancaster County, Pa., from September 1992 to March 1995. The relation between concentrations of soil phosphorus and phosphorus transport needs to be identified because excessive phosphorus concentrations in surface-water bodies promote eutrophication. The objective of the study was to quantify and determine the significance of chemical, physical, and hydrologic factors that affected phosphorus transport. Three study plots less than 1 acre in size were tilled and planted in silage corn. Phosphorus in the form of liquid swine and dairy manure was injected to a depth of 6-8 inches on two of the three study plots in May 1993 and May 1994. Plot 1 received no inputs of phosphorus from manure while plots 2 and 3 received an average of 56 and 126 kilograms of phosphorus per acre, respectively, from the two manure applications. No other fertilizer was applied to any of the study plots. From March 30, 1993, through December 31, 1993, and March 10, 1994, through August 31, 1994 (the study period), phosphorus and selected cations were measured in precipitation, manure, soil, surface runoff, subsurface flow (at 18 inches below land surface), and corn plants before harvest. All storm events that yielded surface runoff and subsurface flow were sampled. Surface runoff was analyzed for dissolved (filtered through a 0.45-micron filter) and total concentrations. Subsurface flow was only analyzed for dissolved constituents. Laboratory soil-flask experiments and geochemical modeling were conducted to determine the maximum phosphate retention capacity of sampled soils after manure applications and primary mineralogic controls in the soils that affect phosphate equilibrium processes. Physical characteristics, such as particle-size distributions in soil, the suspended sediment and particle-size distribution in surface runoff, and surface topography, were quantified. Hydrologic characteristics, such as precipitation intensity and duration, volumes of surface runoff, and infiltration rates of soil, were also monitored during the study period. Volumes of surface runoff differed by plot. Volumes of surface runoff measured during the study period from plots 1 (0.43 acres), 2 (0.23 acres), and 3 (0.28 acres) were 350,000, 350,000, and 750,000 liters per acre, respectively. About 90 percent of the volume of surface runoff occurred after October 1993 because of the lack of intense precipitation from March 30, 1993, through November 30, 1993. For any one precipitation amount, volumes of surface runoff increased with an increase in the maximum intensity of precipitation and decreased with an increase in storm duration. The significantly higher volume of surface runoff for plot 3 relative to plots 1 and 2 was probably caused by lower infiltration rates on plot 3. Soil concentrations of plant-available phosphorus (PAP) for each study plot were high (31-60 parts per million) to excessive (greater than 60 parts per million) for each depth interval (0-6, 6-12, and 12- 24 inches) and sampling period except for some samples collected at depths of 12-24 inches. The high levels of PAP before manure applications made it difficult to detect any changes in the concentration of soil PAP caused by manure applications. Manure applications to the study area prior to this study resulted in relatively high concentrations of soil PAP; however, the manure applications to plot 3 during the study period did cause an increase in the soil concentration of PAP after the second manure application. The percentages of total phosphorus in plant-available and inorganic forms were about 5 and 80 percent, respectively, in the 0-24--inch depth interval of soil on the study plots. Concentrations of total phosphorus on sand, silt, and clay particles from soil were 700, 1,000, and 3,400 parts per million, respectively. About 70 percent of the total mass of phosphorus in soil to a depth of 24 inches was associated with silt and clay particles. Soil-flask experiments indicated that soils from the study plots were not saturated with respect to phosphorus. Soils had the capacity to retain 694 to 1,160 milligrams of phosphorus per kilogram of soil. The measured retention capacity probably exceeded the actual retention capacity of soil because laboratory conditions optimized the contact time between soil and test solutions. Geochemical modeling indicated that the primary mineralogical controls on the concentration of dissolved phosphorus in surface runoff and subsurface flow were aluminum and iron oxides and strengite (if it exists). Aluminum and iron oxides bind phosphate in solution and strengite is an iron-phosphate mineral. The mineralization of organic phosphorus into dissolved inorganic forms could also supply phosphorus to surface runoff and subsurface flow. Phosphorus inputs to the plots during the study period were from precipitation and manure. Phosphorus inputs from precipitation were negligible. The loads of phosphorus to the plots from manure applications in May 1993 and May 1994 were 112 and 251 kilograms per acre for plots 2 and 3, respectively; about 60 percent of the load occurred in 1994. Phosphorus outputs in surface runoff differed between study plots. The cumulative yields of total phosphorus during the study period for plots 1, 2, and 3 were 1.12, 1.24, and 1.69 kilograms per acre, respectively. Differences between plots were primarily evident for dissolved yields of phosphorus. The percentage of the total phosphorus output in surface runoff that was in the dissolved phase varied from 6 percent for plot 1 to 26 percent for plot 3. The cumulative yields of dissolved phosphorus from plots 2 and 3 were 135 and 500 percent greater, respectively, than the dissolved yield from plot 1. Even though volumes of surface runoff were different on the plots, the primary cause of the difference between plots in the yield of dissolved phosphorus in surface runoff was differences in the concentration of dissolved phosphorus. After the second manure application, concentrations of dissolved phosphorus in surface runoff on plots 2 and 3 were significantly higher than the concentration for plot 1. An increase in the concentration of dissolved phosphorus in subsurface flow from plots 2 and 3 was measured after manure applications. The mean concentrations of dissolved phosphorus in subsurface flow after the first manure application were 0.29, 0.57, and 1.45 milligrams per liter of phosphorus for plots 1, 2, and 3, respectively. The loss of dissolved phosphorus in surface runoff was related to the soil concentration of PAP. The model relating dissolved phosphorus in surface runoff to soil PAP indicated that concentrations of dissolved phosphorus in surface runoff would exceed 0.1 milligram per liter if soil concentrations of PAP exceeded 9 parts per million; this PAP concentration was exceeded by each study plot. Over 50 percent of the variation of dissolved phosphorus in surface runoff was explained by soil concentrations of PAP in the 0-6-inch depth interval. The loss of suspended phosphorus in surface runoff was primarily affected by the particle-size distribution of suspended sediment in surface runoff. Surface runoff was enriched with fines relative to the soil matrix. Generally, over 90 percent of sediment in runoff was comprised of silt and clay particles; only 50-60 percent of particle sizes from the intact soil matrix were in the silt- to clay-size range. Concentrations of suspended phosphorus in surface runoff were not significantly related to soil concentrations of total phosphorus in the 0-6-inch depth interval. Concentrations of dissolved phosphorus in subsurface flow were also related to soil concentrations of PAP. The relation indicated that dissolved concentrations of phosphorus in subsurface flow would exceed 0.1 milligram per liter if soil concentrations of PAP in the 0-6-inch depth interval of soil were greater than 49 parts per million; this PAP concentration was exceeded by each study plot. The significant relation of high concentrations of dissolved phosphorus in water to soil concentrations of PAP indicated that soils with comparable concentrations of soil PAP would be potential sources of dissolved phosphorus to surface water and subsurface water tables. The percentage of the total phosphorus lost from a system in the dissolved form increased as soil concentrations of PAP increased. This indicates that best-management practices to reduce phosphorus losses from this system not only need to target suspended forms of phosphorus but also dissolved forms. Practices aimed at reducing the loss of dissolved phosphorus from the system increase in importance with an increase in soil concentrations of PAP.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Great Lakes lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) thiamine monitoring program annual report

Thiamine deficiency in lake trout ( Salvelinus namaycush ) eggs has been linked to early life-stage mortality in the Great Lakes from the 1960s through the 1990s, potentially affecting lake trout recruitment. In response, the U.S. Geological Survey’s Great Lakes Science Center (GLSC), Eastern Ecological Science Center (EESC), and Columbia Environmental Research Center (CERC), and the State University of New York (SUNY) Brockport, in collaboration with partner agencies, initiated a cooperative monitoring program in the late 1990s to assess thiamine concentrations in lake trout eggs. In 2024, egg thiamine concentrations continued to show high variability across sampling sites. No samples with thiamine concentrations below the 4 nmol/g threshold recommended for successful reproduction were observed in Lakes Superior or Huron. In contrast, between 11% and 88% of lake trout sampled from sites in Lakes Michigan, Ontario, Champlain, and the Finger Lakes had egg thiamine concentrations below this critical threshold. Time series data revealed substantial temporal and spatial variation in mean lake trout egg thiamine concentrations across the Great Lakes region.

Finger Lakes, Great Lakes, Lake Champlain↗

Great Lakes lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) thiamine monitoring program annual report

Thiamine deficiency in lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) eggs has been linked to early life-stage mortality in the Great Lakes from the 1960s through the 1990s, potentially affecting lake trout recruitment. In response, the U.S. Geological Survey’s Great Lakes Science Center (GLSC), Eastern Ecological Science Center (EESC), and Columbia Environmental Research Center (CERC), and the State University of New York (SUNY) Brockport, in collaboration with partner agencies, initiated a cooperative monitoring program in the late 1990s to assess thiamine concentrations in lake trout eggs. In 2024, egg thiamine concentrations continued to show high variability across sampling sites. No samples with thiamine concentrations below the 4 nmol/g threshold recommended for successful reproduction were observed in Lakes Superior or Huron. In contrast, between 11% and 88% of lake trout sampled from sites in Lakes Michigan, Ontario, Champlain, and the Finger Lakes had egg thiamine concentrations below this critical threshold. Time series data revealed substantial temporal and spatial variation in mean lake trout egg thiamine concentrations across the Great Lakes region.

Lakes Superior, Michigan, Huron, Erie, Ontario, Ch↗

A brief geologic history of Volusia County, Florida

Volusia County is in a unique and beautiful setting. This Florida landscape is characterized by low coastal plains bordered by upland areas of sandy ridges and many lakes. Beautiful streams and springs abound within the vicinity. Underneath the land surface is a deep layer of limestone rocks that stores fresh, clean water used to serve drinking and other needs. However, the landscape and the subsurface rocks have not always been as they appear today. These features are the result of environmental forces and processes that began millions of years ago and are still ongoing. This fact sheet provides a brief geologic history of the Earth, Florida, and Volusia County, with an emphasis on explaining why the Volusia County landscape and geologic structure exists as it does today.

Florida↗

Macroinvertebrate assemblages on woody debris and their relations with environmental variables in the lower Sacramento and San Joaquin River drainages, California

Data from 25 sites were used to evaluate associations between macroinvertebrate assemblages on large woody debris (snags) and environmental variables in the lower San Joaquin and Sacramento River drainages in California as part of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water Quality Assessment Program. Samples were collected from 1993 to 1995 in the San Joaquin River drainage and in 1996 and 1997 in the Sacramento River drainage. Macroinvertebrate taxa were aggregated to the family (or higher) level of taxonomic organization, resulting in 39 taxa for analyses. Only the 31 most common taxa were used for two-way indicator species analysis (TWINSPAN) and canonical correspondence analysis (CCA). TWINSPAN analysis defined four groups of snag samples on the basis of macroinvertebrate assemblages. Analysis of variance identified differences in environmental and biotic characteristics among the groups. These results combined with the results of CCA indicated that mean dominant substrate type, gradient, specific conductance, water temperature, percentage of the basin in agricultural land use, percentage of the basin in combined agricultural and urban land uses, and elevation were important factors in explaining assemblage structure. Macroinvertebrate assemblages on snags may be useful in family level bioassessments of environmental conditions in valley floor habitats.

Environmental Monitoring and Assessment↗

Stable isotopes of transition and post-transition metals as tracers in environmental studies

The transition and post-transition metals, which include the elements in Groups 3–12 of the Periodic Table, have a broad range of geological and biological roles as well as industrial applications and thus are widespread in the environment. Interdisciplinary research over the past decade has resulted in a broad understanding of the isotope systematics of this important group of elements and revealed largely unexpected variability in isotope composition for natural materials. Significant kinetic and equilibrium isotope fractionation has been observed for redox sensitive metals such as iron, chromium, copper, molybdenum and mercury, and for metals that are not redox sensitive in nature such as cadmium and zinc. In the environmental sciences, the isotopes are increasingly being used to understand important issues such as tracing of metal contaminant sources and fates, unraveling metal redox cycles, deciphering metal nutrient pathways and cycles, and developing isotope biosignatures that can indicate the role of biological activity in ancient and modern planetary systems.

Book↗

Desert wetlands in the geologic record

Desert wetlands support flora and fauna in a variety of hydrologic settings, including seeps, springs, marshes, wet meadows, ponds, and spring pools. Over time, eolian, alluvial, and fluvial sediments become trapped in these settings by a combination of wet ground conditions and dense plant cover. The result is a unique combination of clastic sediments, chemical precipitates, and organic matter that is preserved in the geologic record as ground-water discharge (GWD) deposits. GWD deposits contain information on the timing and magnitude of past changes in water-table levels and, therefore, are a potential source of paleohydrologic and paleoclimatic information. In addition, they can be important archeological and paleontological archives because desert wetlands provide reliable sources of fresh water, and thus act as focal points for human and faunal activities, in some of the world's harshest and driest lands. Here, we review some of the physical, sedimentological, and geochemical characteristics common to GWD deposits, and provide a contextual framework that researchers can use to identify and interpret geologic deposits associated with desert wetlands. We discuss several lines of evidence used to differentiate GWD deposits from lake deposits (they are commonly confused), and examine how various types of microbiota and depositional facies aid in reconstructing past environmental and hydrologic conditions. We also review how late Quaternary GWD deposits are dated, as well as methods used to investigate desert wetlands deeper in geologic time. We end by evaluating the strengths and limitations of hydrologic and climatic records derived from GWD deposits, and suggest several avenues of potential future research to further develop and utilize these unique and complex systems.

Earth-Science Reviews↗

Challenge theme 4: People in the Borderlands: Chapter 6 in United States-Mexican Borderlands: Facing tomorrow's challenges through USGS science

The management of shared resources in the United States–Mexican border region requires cooperation from the people of both countries to assess and understand their relation to the environment. Society is dependent on the long-term healthy functioning of ecosystems and their ability to supply food and raw materials. Likewise, resources and services obtained from nature could be used efficiently within the society. A more equitable distribution of costs and benefits related to goods and services can lead to fewer tensions and a higher quality of life for all the people in the Borderlands. Urban development, background contamination from mineral ore deposits, irrigation, sewage effluent, and even global climate change all have the potential to alter the stability of the fragile systems in the Borderlands (Brady and others, 2001, 2002; Norman, 2007, 2010; Gu and others, 2008; Norman, Gray, and others, 2008; Norman, Hirsch, and Ward, 2008; Norman, Callegary, and others, 2010; Norman, Huth, and others, 2010; Norman, Levick, and others, 2010; Norman, Tallent-Halsell, and others, 2010; Norman, Villarreal, and others 2012). Social efficiency means that because resources should be used where they are needed most, they should be distributed proportionally among human societies and individuals (Azar and others, 1996). Despite the critical role natural resources play in maintaining human and environmental health, current knowledge of the manner in which natural and human-caused forces interact to limit these resources—including their quality and quantity (such as through spatiotemporal changes in precipitation, evapotranspiration, pumping of groundwater, and release of contaminants)—is inadequate. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is trying to understand the relation between changing landscapes, changing demographics, and a changing climate in the Borderlands while the environmental, economic, and societal issues continue to be intertwined between the two nations.

United States-Mexico Borderlands↗

Peak streamflow trends in South Dakota and their relation to changes in climate, water years 1921–2020

Peak-flow (flood) frequency analysis is essential to water-resources management applications, including the design of critical infrastructure such as bridges and culverts, and floodplain mapping. Federal guidelines for performing peak-flow flood frequency analyses are presented in a U.S. Geological Survey Techniques and Methods Report known as Bulletin 17C. A basic assumption within Bulletin 17C, which documents the guidelines for determining annual peak streamflow frequency, is that, for basins without major hydrologic alterations (for example, regulation, diversion, and urbanization), statistical properties of the distribution of annual peak streamflows are stationary; that is, the mean, variance, and skew are constant through time. Nonstationarity is a statistical property of a peak-flow series such that the long-term (on the order of decades) distributional properties change one or more times either gradually or abruptly through time. Individual nonstationarities may be attributed to one source such as flow regulation, land-use change, or climate but are often the result of a combination of sources, making detection and attribution of nonstationarities challenging. In response to a growing concern regarding nonstationarity in peak streamflows in the region, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Departments of Transportation of Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, South Dakota, and Wisconsin; the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation; and the North Dakota Department of Water Resources, assessed the potential nonstationarity in peak streamflows in the north-central United States. This chapter characterizes the effects of natural hydroclimatic shifts and potential climate change on annual peak streamflows in the State of South Dakota. Annual peak and daily streamflow as well as model-simulated gridded climatic data were examined for temporal monotonic trends, change points, and other statistical properties indicative of changing climatic and environmental conditions. Changes in annual peak and daily flows were evaluated among 13, 35, and 81 qualifying U.S. Geological Survey streamgages for the 75-, 50-, and 30-year trend periods through water year 2020 (the period from October 1, 2019, to September 30, 2020) in South Dakota, respectively. No qualifying streamgages were in the 100-year trend period in the State. Statistical tests for autocorrelation (independent and identically distributed assumption), monotonic trends, and change points in the median and scale are analyzed to evaluate potential stationarity violations (nonstationarity) for performing at-site peak-flow flood-frequency analysis. The trends are reported using a likelihood approach as an alternative to simply reporting significant trends with an arbitrary p -value cutoff point. A distinct east-west spatial pattern of likely upward and downward monotonic trends and change points, respectively, was detected in 75- and 50-year trend periods, but an inconsistent spatial pattern was detected in the 30-year trend period. Additionally, change points in the median annual peak streamflows were detected in the late 1970s and early 1980s in the western part of the State, but in the east, the change point was more commonly detected in 1992–93. A similar east-west spatial pattern of likely upward and downward trends was detected in the annual peak-flow timing, the day of the year of the annal peak streamflow. In the western part of the State, the annual peak streamflows are arriving earlier, but in the east, the annual peak streamflows are arriving later. A peaks-over-threshold (POT) analysis where, on average, there are two events per year (POT2) and four events per year (POT4) was also used to evaluate changes in the frequency (count) of daily streamflows exceeding the threshold. Similar to detected changes in the annual peak streamflow, an east-west likely upward or downward change corresponding to an increase or decrease, respectively, in the frequency of daily streamflow greater than a POT2 and POT4 threshold was detected. A monthly water-balance model was used to evaluate hydroclimatic variation in annual and seasonal precipitation, snowfall, potential evapotranspiration, and soil moisture storage for all qualifying streamgages in the 75-, 50-, and 30-year trend periods. Detected trends in the annual hydroclimatic metrics for the 75- and 50-year trend periods indicate a spatially consistent statewide increase in precipitation, decrease in snowfall, increase in potential evapotranspiration, and increase in soil moisture storage. Furthermore, detected trends in seasonal precipitation in the 75- and 50-year trend periods highlight a pronounced change in precipitation in winter and later into the summer season, especially in the 50-year trend period in the eastern part of the State. Statewide increases in seasonal soil moisture storage were also detected, highlighting year-round increasing flood magnitudes, particularly in the eastern part of the State. Based on the results of these stationarity tests for the qualifying streamgages in South Dakota among the 75-, 50-, and 30-year trend periods, consistent temporal and spatial patterns of nonstationarity were detected among the 75- and 50-year trend periods. Furthermore, when nonstationarity is detected in daily streamflow, increased streamflow and volume (increasing frequency in POT), as well as potentially bridge scour, may have implications on culvert and highway design in the eastern part of South Dakota. Thus, when performing at-site peak-flow flood-frequency analyses in South Dakota, potential nonstationarities and alternative approaches are important considerations.

South Dakota↗

Characterizing 12 years of wildland fire science at the U.S. Geological Survey: Wildland Fire Science Publications, 2006–17

Wildland fire characteristics, such as area burned, number of large fires, burn intensity, and fire season duration, have increased steadily over the past 30 years, resulting in substantial increases in the costs of suppressing fires and managing damages from wildland fire events (National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, 2017). Wildland fire management could benefit from sound decision making based on reliable scientific information. Fire scientists produce data, tools, and information to support fire and land management decision making. With ever-changing land use scenarios, environmental conditions, and emerging technological capabilities, new assessments and studies are continually needed. Established by Congress in 1879, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is the primary science branch of the Department of the Interior (DOI), which manages more than 400 million acres of public lands in the United States. The USGS has more than 100 scientists across seven Mission Areas that help address the wildland fire science needs of DOI bureaus and their stakeholders. The diverse expertise of these scientists allows them to address complex interdisciplinary challenges. In this report, we identify and characterize scientific literature produced by USGS scientists during 2006–17 that addresses topics associated with wildland fire science. Our goals were to (1) make the most complete list possible of product citations readily available in an organized format, and (2) use bibliometric analysis approaches to highlight the productivity of USGS scientists and the impact of contributions that the Bureau has provided to the scientific, land management, and fire management communities.

Open-File Report↗

New geologic mapping of the northwestern Willamette Valley, Oregon, and its American Viticultural Areas (AVAs)—A foundation for understanding their terroir

A geologic map of the greater Portland, Oregon, metropolitan area is planned that will document the region’s complex geology (currently in review: “Geologic map of the greater Portland metropolitan area and surrounding region, Oregon and Washington,” by Wells, R.E., Haugerud, R.A., Niem, A., Niem, W., Ma, L., Evarts, R., Madin, I., and others). The map, which is planned to be published as a U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Map, will consist of 51 7.5′ quadrangles covering more than 2,500 square miles, and it will represent more than 100 person-years of geologic mapping and studies. The region was mapped at the relatively detailed scale of 1:24,000 to improve understanding of its geology and its earthquake hazards. More than 100 geologic map units will record the 50-million-year history of volcanism, sedimentation, folding, and faulting above the Cascadia Subduction Zone. The geology contributes to the varied terroir of four American Viticultural Areas (AVAs) in the northwestern Willamette Valley: the Yamhill-Carlton, Dundee Hills, Chehalem Mountains, and Ribbon Ridge AVAs. Terroir is defined as the environmental conditions, especially climate and soils, that influence the quality and character of a region’s crops—in this case, grapes for wine. On this new poster (“New geologic mapping of the northwestern Willamette Valley, Oregon, and its American Viticultural Areas (AVAs)—A foundation for understanding their terroir”), we present the geologic map at a reduced scale (about 1:175,000) to show the general distribution of geologic map units, and we highlight, discuss, and illustrate six major geologic events that helped shape the region and form its terrior. We also discuss the geologic elements that contribute to the character of each of the four AVAs in the northwestern Willamette Valley.

Oregon↗