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Multispecies approaches to status assessments in support of endangered species classifications

Multispecies risk assessments have developed within many international conservation programs, reflecting a widespread need for efficiency. Under the United States Endangered Species Act (ESA), multispecies assessments ultimately lead to species-level listing decisions. Although this approach provides opportunities for improved efficiency, it also risks overwhelming or biasing the assessment process and would benefit from clear guidance for practitioners. We reviewed multispecies assessments conducted between 1993 and 2019 for ESA listing decisions to identify the ecological basis for combining species, the assessment approach used, and the policy factors influencing their efficacy. We identified 42 cases covering 359 species. Most assessments (81%) included two to five species, although the maximum was 82. A common theme involved grouping narrow endemics or habitat specialists based on taxonomic relatedness, similar distributions, and common threats to persistence. All assessments included a combined threats analysis, but few employed a common species' response model or expert elicitation process. Although ESA risk assessments are distinct from policy decisions, most assessments (50%) supported decisions that all species warranted endangered status. Available guidance has generally emphasized ecological similarity as the key attribute leading to successful multispecies assessments. The challenge with consistently selecting species based on qualitative proxies such as common distributions or threats to persistence is that ecological patterns and processes are scale dependent. Focusing instead on the assessment methods and their potential for bias and increased efficiency may provide a stronger basis for developing consistent and transparent guidance.

Conservation Science and Practice↗

Hyporheic flow and transport processes: mechanisms, models, and biogeochemical implications

Fifty years of hyporheic zone research have shown the important role played by the hyporheic zone as an interface between groundwater and surface waters. However, it is only in the last two decades that what began as an empirical science has become a mechanistic science devoted to modeling studies of the complex fluid dynamical and biogeochemical mechanisms occurring in the hyporheic zone. These efforts have led to the picture of surface-subsurface water interactions as regulators of the form and function of fluvial ecosystems. Rather than being isolated systems, surface water bodies continuously interact with the subsurface. Exploration of hyporheic zone processes has led to a new appreciation of their wide reaching consequences for water quality and stream ecology. Modern research aims toward a unified approach, in which processes occurring in the hyporheic zone are key elements for the appreciation, management, and restoration of the whole river environment. In this unifying context, this review summarizes results from modeling studies and field observations about flow and transport processes in the hyporheic zone and describes the theories proposed in hydrology and fluid dynamics developed to quantitatively model and predict the hyporheic transport of water, heat, and dissolved and suspended compounds from sediment grain scale up to the watershed scale. The implications of these processes for stream biogeochemistry and ecology are also discussed."

Reviews of Geophysics↗

Comparison of estimators for monitoring long-term population trends in deer mice, Peromyscus maniculatus, on the California Channel Islands

Capture-recapture methods are commonly used to estimate abundance and density of wild animal populations. Although a variety of sophisticated analytical techniques are available to evaluate capture-recapture data, vertebrate monitoring programs often lack the resources (e.g., time, personnel, and/or analytical expertise) to apply these methods. As an alternative, simple population indices, such as counts of unique individuals, may provide sufficient information to detect meaningful changes in population size. In this study we investigated whether a population index, easily generated from mark-recapture data under all conditions, might be used to provide valid ecological information for managers interested in long-term population trends of deer mice ( Peromyscus maniculatus ) on the California Channel Islands. In practice, determining the efficacy of estimating abundance from mark-recapture data and indices using empirical data (as opposed to simulated data) is difficult given the scarcity of long-term data sets that describe real populations. Using mark-recapture data that span 18 years ( n = 122 trapping events, >12,000 marked individuals) for deer mice on 2 of the islands, we compared density estimates obtained from several commonly used mark-recapture models and also compared these estimates to index counts. Populations of island deer mice are extremely dynamic; estimated densities over the data period varied from 0 to >1200 mice/ha. Density estimates from models in program CAPTURE and program DENSITY, as well as from model-averaged Huggins models, were strongly correlated with each other and with the density index. Densities calculated by the models and the index showed similar patterns of population variation and trend over time for all 5 sites. For long-term population monitoring and assessment of population trends in deer mice, our findings suggest that the use of a simple index may provide adequate understanding of ecologically relevant population changes, though data collection methods that allow for more detailed analyses using advanced modeling techniques should be maintained.

California↗

Collaborative modelling and integrated decision support system analysis of a developed terminal lake basin

A terminal lake basin in west-central Nevada, Walker Lake, has undergone drastic change over the past 90 yrs due to upstream water use for agriculture. Decreased inflows to the lake have resulted in 100 km 2 decrease in lake surface area and a total loss of fisheries due to salinization. The ecologic health of Walker Lake is of great concern as the lake is a stopover point on the Pacific route for migratory birds from within and outside the United States. Stakeholders, water institutions, and scientists have engaged in collaborative modeling and the development of a decision support system that is being used to develop and analyze management change options to restore the lake. Here we use an integrated management and hydrologic model that relies on state-of-the-art simulation capabilities to evaluate the benefits of using integrated hydrologic models as components of a decision support system. Nonlinear feedbacks among climate, surface-water and groundwater exchanges, and water use present challenges for simulating realistic outcomes associated with management change. Integrated management and hydrologic modeling provides a means of simulating benefits associated with management change in the Walker River basin where drastic changes in the hydrologic landscape have taken place over the last century. Through the collaborative modeling process, stakeholder support is increasing and possibly leading to management change options that result in reductions in Walker Lake salt concentrations, as simulated by the decision support system.

Nevada↗

Enterococci in the environment

Enterococci are common, commensal members of gut communities in mammals and birds, yet they are also opportunistic pathogens that cause millions of human and animal infections annually. Because they are shed in human and animal feces, are readily culturable, and predict human health risks from exposure to polluted recreational waters, they are used as surrogates for waterborne pathogens and as fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) in research and in water quality testing throughout the world. Evidence from several decades of research demonstrates, however, that enterococci may be present in high densities in the absence of obvious fecal sources and that environmental reservoirs of these FIB are important sources and sinks, with the potential to impact water quality. This review focuses on the distribution and microbial ecology of enterococci in environmental (secondary) habitats, including the effect of environmental stressors; an outline of their known and apparent sources, sinks, and fluxes; and an overview of the use of enterococci as FIB. Finally, the significance of emerging methodologies, such as microbial source tracking (MST) and empirical predictive models, as tools in water quality monitoring is addressed. The mounting evidence for widespread extraenteric sources and reservoirs of enterococci demonstrates the versatility of the genus Enterococcus and argues for the necessity of a better understanding of their ecology in natural environments, as well as their roles as opportunistic pathogens and indicators of human pathogens.

Microbiology and Molecular Biology Reviews↗

Spatially referenced models of streamflow and nitrogen, phosphorus, and suspended-sediment loads in streams of the Pacific region of the United States

Although spatial information describing the supply and quality of surface water is critical for managing water resources for human uses and for ecological health, monitoring is expensive and cannot typically be done over large scales or in all streams or waterbodies. To address the need for such data, the U.S. Geological Survey developed SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) for the Pacific region of the U.S. for streamflow and three water-quality constituents–total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and suspended sediment, based on a decadal time frame centered on the year 2012. The domain for these models included the Columbia River basin, the Puget Sound, the coastal drainages of Washington, Oregon, and California, and the Central Valley of California. Landscape runoff (represented by the difference between precipitation and evapotranspiration) was the largest source of streamflow, wastewater discharge, and atmospheric deposition were the largest contributors to total nitrogen yield from the Pacific region, wastewater discharge was the largest contributor to total phosphorus yield, and forest land was the largest contributor to suspended-sediment yield. Watersheds with relatively high water yields also generally had relatively high yields of total nitrogen, total phosphorous, and suspended sediment–except where there were large contributions from developed land and wastewater discharge. The data used in this study, including many that improved upon existing national data or were compiled specifically for the Pacific region, characterized the complex hydrologic and water-quality conditions in the region more completely than previous models. By using these new datasets, this investigation was able to account for the complex network of water diversions and transfers, quantify the contribution of nutrients from different sources of livestock manure, discern a signal from unpaved logging roads in the suspended-sediment yields from forested coastal watersheds, show how recent wildfire disturbance influences phosphorus and sediment delivery to streams, and how sediment delivery to streams is also sensitive to the intensity of cattle grazing. The results from this study could complement research and inform water-quality management activities in the Pacific region. Examples might include identifying potentially impaired waterbodies and guiding remediation efforts where impairment has been documented, explaining the spatial patterns in harmful algal blooms, and providing estimates of sediment and nutrient loadings to Pacific coast estuaries where such data are scarce or non-existent.

Pacific Region↗

Geospatial data mining for digital raster mapping

We performed an in-depth literature survey to identify the most popular data mining approaches that have been applied for raster mapping of ecological parameters through the use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remotely sensed data. Popular data mining approaches included decision trees or “data mining” trees which consist of regression and classification trees, random forests, neural networks, and support vector machines. The advantages of each data mining approach as well as approaches to avoid overfitting are subsequently discussed. We also provide suggestions and examples for the mapping of problematic variables or classes, future or historical projections, and avoidance of model bias. Finally, we address the separate issues of parallel processing, error mapping, and incorporation of “no data” values into modeling processes. Given the improved availability of digital spatial products and remote sensing products, data mining approaches combined with parallel processing potentials should greatly improve the quality and extent of ecological datasets.

GIScience and Remote Sensing↗

When parasites become prey: ecological and epidemiological significance of eating parasites

Recent efforts to include parasites in food webs have drawn attention to a previously ignored facet of foraging ecology: parasites commonly function as prey within ecosystems. Because of the high productivity of parasites, their unique nutritional composition and their pathogenicity in hosts, their consumption affects both food-web topology and disease risk in humans and wildlife. Here, we evaluate the ecological, evolutionary and epidemiological significance of feeding on parasites, including concomitant predation, grooming, predation on free-living stages and intraguild predation. Combining empirical data and theoretical models, we show that consumption of parasites is neither rare nor accidental, and that it can sharply affect parasite transmission and food web properties. Broader consideration of predation on parasites will enhance our understanding of disease control, food web structure and energy transfer, and the evolution of complex life cycles.

Trends in Ecology and Evolution↗

Multi-species occurrence models to evaluate the effects of conservation and management actions

Conservation and management actions often have direct and indirect effects on a wide range of species. As such, it is important to evaluate the impacts that such actions may have on both target and non-target species within a region. Understanding how species richness and composition differ as a result of management treatments can help determine potential ecological consequences. Yet it is difficult to estimate richness because traditional sampling approaches detect species at variable rates and some species are never observed. We present a framework for assessing management actions on biodiversity using a multi-species hierarchical model that estimates individual species occurrences, while accounting for imperfect detection of species. Our model incorporates species-specific responses to management treatments and local vegetation characteristics and a hierarchical component that links species at a community-level. This allows for comprehensive inferences on the whole community or on assemblages of interest. Compared to traditional species models, occurrence estimates are improved for all species, even for those that are rarely observed, resulting in more precise estimates of species richness (including species that were unobserved during sampling). We demonstrate the utility of this approach for conservation through an analysis comparing bird communities in two geographically similar study areas: one in which white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) densities have been regulated through hunting and one in which deer densities have gone unregulated. Although our results indicate that species and assemblage richness were similar in the two study areas, point-level richness was significantly influenced by local vegetation characteristics, a result that would have been underestimated had we not accounted for variability in species detection.

Biological Conservation↗

Multibeam Sonar Mapping and Modeling of a Submerged Bryophyte Mat in Crater Lake, Oregon

Traditionally, multibeam data have been used to map sea floor or lake floor morphology as well as the distribution of surficial facies in order to characterize the geologic component of benthic habitats. In addition to using multibeam data for geologic studies, we want to determine if these data can also be used directly to map the distribution of biota. Multibeam bathymetry and acoustic backscatter data collected in Crater Lake, Oregon, in 2000 are used to map the distribution of a deep-water bryophyte mat, which will be extremely useful for understanding the overall ecology of the lake. To map the bryophyte's distribution, depth range, acoustic backscatter intensity, and derived bathymetric index grids are used as inputs into a hierarchical decision-tree classification model. Observations of the bryophyte mat from over 23 line kilometers of lake-floor video collected in the summer of 2006 are used as controls for the model. The resulting map matches well with ground-truth information and shows that the bryophyte mat covers most of the platform surrounding Wizard Island as well as on outcrops around the caldera wall.

Data Series↗

A decision-support tool to prioritize candidate landscapes for lesser prairie-chicken conservation

Context Development of systematic methods for conservation planning has improved effectiveness and efficiency of implementing such plans. The lesser prairie-chicken ( Tympanuchus pallidicinctus ) is a grouse species of conservation concern native to the southwestern Great Plains of the United States. Recent lesser prairie-chicken conservation planning has involved identifying ecologically important areas but has not incorporated economic data into prioritization of areas to target for conservation management. Objectives We used the program Marxan to develop a decision-support tool for managers in Kansas to prioritize tracts for improving lesser prairie-chicken habitat quality and increasing habitat availability. We developed three different conservation scenarios and evaluated the tradeoffs among multiple planning objectives in these scenarios. Methods We incorporated population targets from an existing conservation plan and agricultural economic data to help select land with maximum ecological value and minimum economic productivity to prioritize for lesser prairie-chicken conservation. We compared potential conservation plans and incorporated a post hoc connectivity model to test potential for individuals to travel among habitat patches in these plans during dispersal events. Results We found that different conservation scenarios led to different solutions, though differences varied by ecoregion. Potential solutions for all scenarios contained habitat patches not currently included in existing conservation plans and had high connectivity potential. Conclusions These results provide context for spatial prioritization of lesser prairie-chicken habitat management in Kansas. Application of this approach to species of conservation interest could help managers incorporate socioeconomic factors into planning methods and identify important tracts for conservation currently overlooked by existing planning methods.

Kansas↗

Monitoring benthic aIgal communides: A comparison of targeted and coefficient sampling methods

Choosing an appropriate sample unit is a fundamental decision in the design of ecological studies. While numerous methods have been developed to estimate organism abundance, they differ in cost, accuracy and precision.Using both field data and computer simulation modeling, we evaluated the costs and benefits associated with two methods commonly used to sample benthic organisms in temperate kelp forests. One of these methods, the Targeted Sampling method, relies on different sample units, each "targeted" for a specific species or group of species while the other method relies on coefficients that represent ranges of bottom cover obtained from visual esti-mates within standardized sample units. Both the field data and the computer simulations suggest that both methods yield remarkably similar estimates of organism abundance and among-site variability, although the Coefficient method slightly underestimates variability among sample units when abundances are low. In contrast, the two methods differ considerably in the effort needed to sample these communities; the Targeted Sampling requires more time and twice the personnel to complete. We conclude that the Coefficent Sampling method may be better for environmental monitoring programs where changes in mean abundance are of central concern and resources are limiting, but that the Targeted sampling methods may be better for ecological studies where quantitative relationships among species and small-scale variability in abundance are of central concern.

Algae↗

A modeling study of the impacts of Mississippi River diversion and sea-level rise on water quality of a deltaic estuary

Freshwater and sediment management in estuaries affects water quality, particularly in deltaic estuaries. Furthermore, climate change-induced sea-level rise (SLR) and land subsidence also affect estuarine water quality by changing salinity, circulation, stratification, sedimentation, erosion, residence time, and other physical and ecological processes. However, little is known about how the magnitudes and spatial and temporal patterns in estuarine water quality variables will change in response to freshwater and sediment management in the context of future SLR. In this study, we applied the Delft3D model that couples hydrodynamics and water quality processes to examine the spatial and temporal variations of salinity, total suspended solids, and chlorophyll-α concentration in response to small (142 m 3 s −1 ) and large (7080 m 3 s −1 ) Mississippi River (MR) diversions under low (0.38 m) and high (1.44 m) relative SLR (RSLR = eustatic SLR + subsidence) scenarios in the Breton Sound Estuary, Louisiana, USA. The hydrodynamics and water quality model were calibrated and validated via field observations at multiple stations across the estuary. Model results indicate that the large MR diversion would significantly affect the magnitude and spatial and temporal patterns of the studied water quality variables across the entire estuary, whereas the small diversion tends to influence water quality only in small areas near the diversion. RSLR would also play a significant role on the spatial heterogeneity in estuary water quality by acting as an opposite force to river diversions; however, RSLR plays a greater role than the small-scale diversion on the magnitude and spatial pattern of the water quality parameters in this deltaic estuary.

Louisiana↗

Distance measures and optimization spaces in quantitative fatty acid signature analysis

Quantitative fatty acid signature analysis has become an important method of diet estimation in ecology, especially marine ecology. Controlled feeding trials to validate the method and estimate the calibration coefficients necessary to account for differential metabolism of individual fatty acids have been conducted with several species from diverse taxa. However, research into potential refinements of the estimation method has been limited. We compared the performance of the original method of estimating diet composition with that of five variants based on different combinations of distance measures and calibration-coefficient transformations between prey and predator fatty acid signature spaces. Fatty acid signatures of pseudopredators were constructed using known diet mixtures of two prey data sets previously used to estimate the diets of polar bears Ursus maritimus and gray seals Halichoerus grypus, and their diets were then estimated using all six variants. In addition, previously published diets of Chukchi Sea polar bears were re-estimated using all six methods. Our findings reveal that the selection of an estimation method can meaningfully influence estimates of diet composition. Among the pseudopredator results, which allowed evaluation of bias and precision, differences in estimator performance were rarely large, and no one estimator was universally preferred, although estimators based on the Aitchison distance measure tended to have modestly superior properties compared to estimators based on the Kullback-Leibler distance measure. However, greater differences were observed among estimated polar bear diets, most likely due to differential estimator sensitivity to assumption violations. Our results, particularly the polar bear example, suggest that additional research into estimator performance and model diagnostics is warranted.

Ecology and Evolution↗

Tropical forests and global change: Biogeochemical responses and opportunities for cross-site comparisons, an organized INSPIRE session at the 108th Annual Meeting, Ecological Society of America, Portland, Oregon, USA, August 2023

Tropical forests play a critical role in the global carbon (C) cycle. These ecosystems maintain the highest rates of net primary production (NPP) on Earth (Hengl et al ., 2017 ), contain c . 30% of terrestrial C stocks (Jobbagy & Jackson, 2000 ), and have some of the largest stores of fine-root biomass globally (Jackson et al ., 1996 ), as well as higher fine-root production and turnover rates compared with other biomes (Cusack et al ., 2021 ). Tropical forest responses to projected warming, altered rainfall regimes, and elevated CO 2 concentrations (IPCC, 2021 ) are likely to be different from other ecosystems because of their unique characteristics (Box 1 ), making targeted research and model development important for understanding tropical forest–climate feedbacks. There is now a critical mass of long-term global change field experiments and modeling efforts in tropical forests, yet thus far there has been little synthesis, cross-site comparison, or multi-site standardized experimentation among tropical forests to help us understand how these biomes are changing. An organized INSPIRE session at the 108 th Annual Meeting of the Ecological Society of America set out to tackle just this. Speakers covered large-scale tropical forest field experiments and modeling efforts, with an emphasis on changes in ecosystem biogeochemistry under warming, drying, elevated atmospheric CO 2 , and changing nutrient status. In this Meeting report, we provide an overview of the large-scale global change experiments presented and highlight the main objectives and opportunities for tropical forest research that emerged, including cross-site comparisons and integration with ecosystem-scale models (Fig. 1 ).

New Phytologist↗

A Natural Resource Condition Assessment for Rocky Mountain National Park

We conducted a natural resource assessment of Rocky Mountain National Park (ROMO) to provide a synthesis of existing scientific data and knowledge to address the current conditions for a subset of important park natural resources. The intent is for this report to help provide park resource managers with data and information, particularly in the form of spatially-explicit maps and GIS databases, about those natural resources and to place emerging issues within a local, regional, national, or global context. With an advisory team, we identified the following condition indicators that would be useful to assess the condition of the park: Air and Climate: Condition of alpine lakes and atmospheric deposition Water: Extent and connectivity of wetland and riparian areas Biotic Integrity: Extent of exotic terrestrial plant species, extent of fish distributions, and extent of suitable beaver habitat Landscapes: Extent and pattern of major ecological systems and natural landscapes connectivity These indicators are summarized in the following pages. We also developed two maps of important issues for use by park managers: visitor use (thru accessibility modeling) and proportion of watersheds affected by beetle kill. Based on our analysis, we believe that there is a high degree of concern for the following indicators: condition of alpine lakes; extent and connectivity of riparian/wetland areas; extent of exotic terrestrial plants (especially below 9,500’); extent of fish distributions; extent of suitable beaver habitat; and natural landscapes and connectivity. We found a low degree of concern for: the extent and pattern of major ecological systems. The indicators and issues were also summarized by the 34 watershed units (HUC12) within the park. Generally, we found six watersheds to be in “pristine” condition: Black Canyon Creek, Comanche Creek, Middle Saint Vrain Creek, South Fork of the Cache la Poudre, Buchanan Creek, and East Inlet. Four watersheds were found to have strong restoration opportunities: Big Thompson River West, Cache la Poudre South, Colorado River North, and Onahu Creek. Ten watersheds were found to have substantial near-term issues: Aspen Brook, Big Thompson River West, Black Canyon Creek, Cabin Creek, Cache la Poudre South, Fall River, Hague Creek, La Poudre Pass Creek, North Fork Big Thompson (East), and Colorado River North.

Report↗

Spatial occupancy patterns of the endangered northern long‐eared bat in New England

Aim White-nose syndrome has caused severe declines in eastern North American cave bats, leading to the federal listing of the northern long-eared bat ( Myotis septentrionalis ) as endangered in the United States and Canada. This has heightened the importance of long-term monitoring to inform species status assessments. We employed a combination of long-term repeated and single-season acoustic survey data to assess the regional presence, spatial distribution, occupancy, and detection probability of northern long-eared bats. Location New England, United States. Methods We analysed acoustic data from 2357 detector sites, aggregated by year, using Bayesian single-species occupancy models. We investigated the influence of habitat characteristics, climatic variables, and year (2015–2022) on occupancy and the effects of weather conditions and survey month (May to August) on detection probability. Spatial random effects were included to address residual spatial autocorrelation, with a 1-km resolution chosen based on significant positive autocorrelation observed in a non-spatial model. Results Occupancy was highest on steep, forested hillsides with minimal anthropogenic development, higher in warmer regions, particularly along coastlines and on offshore islands, and declined across survey years. Including a 1-km spatial random effect reduced residual autocorrelation and suggests northern long-eared bats utilise resources at small to medium landscape scales. Detection probability was highest earlier in the maternity season, but declined when monthly precipitation or temperature exceeded average conditions. Conclusions Conservation efforts that focus on steep, forested hillsides in warmer regions with low anthropogenic development could be beneficial. Our analysis supports the use of spatial random effects at a 1-km 2 scale, highlighting the importance of survey designs that capture ecological variation at species-specific resolutions. Additionally, early-season acoustic surveys conducted during favourable weather conditions may improve monitoring effectiveness. Acoustic sampling and spatial occupancy modelling offer powerful tools for monitoring remnant populations of northern long-eared bats and guiding conservation practices.

Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, ↗

Random forests for classification in ecology

Classification procedures are some of the most widely used statistical methods in ecology. Random forests (RF) is a new and powerful statistical classifier that is well established in other disciplines but is relatively unknown in ecology. Advantages of RF compared to other statistical classifiers include (1) very high classification accuracy; (2) a novel method of determining variable importance; (3) ability to model complex interactions among predictor variables; (4) flexibility to perform several types of statistical data analysis, including regression, classification, survival analysis, and unsupervised learning; and (5) an algorithm for imputing missing values. We compared the accuracies of RF and four other commonly used statistical classifiers using data on invasive plant species presence in Lava Beds National Monument, California, USA, rare lichen species presence in the Pacific Northwest, USA, and nest sites for cavity nesting birds in the Uinta Mountains, Utah, USA. We observed high classification accuracy in all applications as measured by cross-validation and, in the case of the lichen data, by independent test data, when comparing RF to other common classification methods. We also observed that the variables that RF identified as most important for classifying invasive plant species coincided with expectations based on the literature. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecology↗