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At least 1,639 records · Page 91Linked to original sources

USGS2022

Seabird vulnerability to oil: Exposure potential, sensitivity, and uncertainty in the northern Gulf of Mexico

The northern Gulf of Mexico (nGoM) is a globally important region for oil extraction and supports a diverse assemblage of marine birds. Due to their frequent contact with surface waters, diverse foraging strategies, and the ease with which oil adheres to feathers, seabirds are particularly susceptible to hydrocarbon contamination. Given the chronic and acute exposure of seabirds to oiling and a lack of studies that focus on the exposure of seabirds to oiling in sub-tropical and tropical regions, a greater understanding of the vulnerability of seabirds to oil in the nGoM appears warranted. We present an oil vulnerability index for seabirds in the nGoM tailored to the current state of knowledge using new, spatiotemporally expensive vessel-based seabird observations. We use information on the exposure and sensitivity of seabirds to oil to rank seabird vulnerability. Exposure variables characterized the potential to encounter oil and gas (O&G). Sensitivity variables characterized the potential impact of seabirds interacting with O&G and are related to life history and productivity. We also incorporated uncertainty in each variable, identifying data gaps. We found that the percent of seabirds’ habitat defined as highly suitable within 10 km of an O&G platform ranged from 0%-65% among 24 species. Though O&G platforms only overlap with 15% of highly suitable seabird habitat, overlap occurs in areas of moderate to high vulnerability of seabirds, particularly along the shelf-slope. Productivity-associated sensitivity variables were primarily responsible for creating the gradient in vulnerability scores and had greater uncertainty than exposure variables. Highly vulnerable species (e.g., Northern gannet ( Morus bassanus )) tended to have high exposure to the water surface via foraging behaviors (e.g., plunge-diving), older age at first breeding, and an extended incubating and fledging period compared to less vulnerable species (e.g., Pomarine jaeger ( Stercorarius pomarinus )). Uncertainty related to productivity could be reduced through at-colony monitoring. Strategic seabird satellite tagging could help target monitoring efforts to colonies known to use the nGoM, and continued vessel-based observations could improve habitat characterization. As offshore energy development in the nGoM continues, managers and researchers could use these vulnerability ranks to identify information gaps to prioritize research and focal species.

northern Gulf of Mexico↗

USGS2023

Two centuries of southwest Iceland annually-resolved marine temperature reconstructed from Arctica islandica shells

Iceland's exposure to major ocean current pathways of the central North Atlantic makes it a useful location for developing long-term proxy records of past marine climate. Such records provide more detailed understanding of the full range of past variability which is necessary to improve predictions of future changes. We constructed a 225-year (1791–2015 CE) master shell growth chronology from 29 shells of Arctica islandica collected at 100 m water depth in southwest Iceland (Faxaflói). The growth chronology provides a robust age model for shell oxygen isotope (δ 18 O shell ) data produced at annual resolution for 251 years (1765–2015 CE). The temperature reconstruction derived from δ 18 O shell shows coherence with May–October local surface temperature records and sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic region, suggesting it is a useful proxy indicator of water temperature variability at 100 m depth within Faxaflói. Field correlations between the shell-based records and gridded sea surface temperature data reveal strong positive correlations between the 1-year lagged shell growth and temperatures within the subpolar gyre post-1972, suggesting a delayed influence of subpolar gyre dynamics on ecological indicators in southwest Iceland in recent decades. However, the shell growth chronology and δ 18 O shell record generally show relatively weak and insignificant correlations with larger region climate indices including the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, North Atlantic Oscillation, and East Atlantic pattern. Therefore the interannual variations in the newly produced shell-based records appear to reflect more local to regional dynamics around southwest Iceland than large-scale modes of climate variability.

Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science↗

USGS1998

Paleoclimate simulations for North America over the past 21,000 years: Features of the simulated climate and comparisons with paleoenvironmental data

Maps of upper-level and surface winds and of surface temperature and precipitation illustrate the results of a sequence of global paleoclimatic simulations spanning the past 21,000 yr for North America. We review (a) the large-scale features of circulation, temperature, and precipitation that appear in the simulations from the NCAR Community Climate Model Version 1 (CCM 1), (b) the implications of the simulated climate for the past continental-scale distributions of three plant taxa ( Picea spp., Pseudotsuga menziesii , and Artemisia tridentata ), which are broadly representative of the vegetation across the continent, and (c) the potential explanations in terms of atmospheric circulation or surface energy- and water-balance processes for mismatches between the simulations and observations. Most of the broad-scale features of previous paleoclimatic simulations with the NCAR CCM 0 for North America are present in the current simulations. Many of the elements of a conceptual model (based on previous climate simulations) that describes the controls of paleoclimatic variations across North America during the past 21,000 yr are found in simulations reviewed here. These include (1) displacement of the jet stream by the Laurentide Ice Sheet to the south of its present position in both winter and summer, (2) generation of a ‘glacial anticyclone’ over the ice sheet at the LGM, and the consequent induction of large-scale sinking motions induced over eastern North America, (3) changes in the strength of surface atmospheric circulation features through time, including weakening of the Aleutian low in winter, and strengthening of the eastern Pacific and Bermuda high-pressure systems in summer as the ice sheet decreased in size, (4) development of a ‘heat low’ at the surface and a strengthened ridge in the upper-atmosphere over the continent at the time of the maximum summer insolation anomaly, (5) increases in summer temperature earlier in regions remote from the ice sheet (these increases appear earlier in the present (CCM 1) simulations than in the previous (CCM 0) ones, however), and (6) continuation of negative winter temperature anomalies into the middle Holocene. In general, simulated surface conditions that are discordant with paleoenvironmental observations can be attributed to the simulation of particular atmospheric circulation patterns (e.g. those that suppress precipitation or advect warm air into a region), with these mismatches amplified in Beringia and the southeastern United States by surface energy- and water-balance processes.

Quaternary Science Reviews↗

USGS1958

Selected topics of fluid mechanics

The fundamental equations of fluid mechanics are specific expressions of the principles of motion which are ascribed to Isaac Newton. Thus, the equations which form the framework of applied fluid mechanics or hydraulics are, in addition to the equation of continuity, the Newtonian equations of energy and momentum. These basic relationships are also the foundations of river hydraulics. The fundamental equations are developed in this report with sufficient rigor to support critical examinations of their applicability to most problems met by hydraulic engineers of the Water Resources Division of the United States Geological Survey. Physical concepts are emphasized, and mathematical procedures are the simplest consistent with the specific requirements of the derivations. In lieu of numerical examples, analogies, and alternative procedures, this treatment stresses a brief methodical exposition of the essential principles. An important objective of this report is to prepare the user to read the literature of the science. Thus, it begins With a basic vocabulary of technical symbols, terms, and concepts. Throughout, emphasis is placed on the language of modern fluid mechanics as it pertains to hydraulic engineering. The basic differential and integral equations of simple fluid motion are derived, and these equations are, in turn, used to describe the essential characteristics of hydrostatics and piezometry. The one-dimensional equations of continuity and motion are defined and are used to derive the general discharge equation. The flow net is described as a means of demonstrating significant characteristics of two-dimensional irrotational flow patterns. A typical flow net is examined in detail. The influence of fluid viscosity is described as an obstacle to the derivation of general, integral equations of motion. It is observed that the part played by viscosity is one which is usually dependent on experimental evaluation. It follows that the dimensionless ratios known as the Euler, Froude, Reynolds, Weber, and Cauchy numbers are defined as essential tools for interpreting and using experimental data. The derivations of the energy and momentum equations are treated in detail. One-dimensional equations for steady nonuniform flow are developed, and the restrictions applicable to the equations are emphasized. Conditions of uniform and gradually varied flow are discussed, and the origin of the Chezy equation is examined in relation to both the energy and the momentum equations. The inadequacy of all uniform-flow equations as a means of describing gradually varied flow is explained. Thus, one of the definitive problems of river hydraulics is analyzed in the light of present knowledge. This report is the outgrowth of a series of short schools conducted during the spring and summer of 1953 for engineers of the Surface Water Branch, Water Resources Division, U. S. Geological Survey. The topics considered are essentially the same as the topics selected for inclusion in the schools. However, in order that they might serve better as a guide and outline for informal study, the arrangement of the writer's original lecture notes has been considerably altered. The purpose of the report, like the purpose of the schools which inspired it, is to build a simple but strong framework of the fundamentals of fluid mechanics. It is believed that this framework is capable of supporting a detailed analysis of most of the practical problems met by the engineers of the Geological Survey. It is hoped that the least accomplishment of this work will be to inspire the reader with the confidence and desire to read more of the recent and current technical literature of modern fluid mechanics.

Water Supply Paper↗

USGS2015

A simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbon–climate feedback

We present an approach to estimate the feedback from large-scale thawing of permafrost soils using a simplified, data-constrained model that combines three elements: soil carbon (C) maps and profiles to identify the distribution and type of C in permafrost soils; incubation experiments to quantify the rates of C lost after thaw; and models of soil thermal dynamics in response to climate warming. We call the approach the Permafrost Carbon Network Incubation–Panarctic Thermal scaling approach (PInc-PanTher). The approach assumes that C stocks do not decompose at all when frozen, but once thawed follow set decomposition trajectories as a function of soil temperature. The trajectories are determined according to a three-pool decomposition model fitted to incubation data using parameters specific to soil horizon types. We calculate litterfall C inputs required to maintain steady-state C balance for the current climate, and hold those inputs constant. Soil temperatures are taken from the soil thermal modules of ecosystem model simulations forced by a common set of future climate change anomalies under two warming scenarios over the period 2010 to 2100. Under a medium warming scenario (RCP4.5), the approach projects permafrost soil C losses of 12.2–33.4 Pg C; under a high warming scenario (RCP8.5), the approach projects C losses of 27.9–112.6 Pg C. Projected C losses are roughly linearly proportional to global temperature changes across the two scenarios. These results indicate a global sensitivity of frozen soil C to climate change ( γ sensitivity) of −14 to −19 Pg C °C −1 on a 100 year time scale. For CH 4 emissions, our approach assumes a fixed saturated area and that increases in CH 4 emissions are related to increased heterotrophic respiration in anoxic soil, yielding CH 4 emission increases of 7% and 35% for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, which add an additional greenhouse gas forcing of approximately 10–18%. The simplified approach presented here neglects many important processes that may amplify or mitigate C release from permafrost soils, but serves as a data-constrained estimate on the forced, large-scale permafrost C response to warming.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A:↗

USGS2002

Effect of flood-induced chemical load on filtrate quality at bank filtration sites

Riparian municipal wells, that are located on riverbanks, are specifically designed to capture a portion of the river water through induced infiltration. Runoff from agricultural watersheds is found to carry enormous amounts of pesticides and nitrate. While the risk of contamination for a vast majority of sites with small-capacity vertical wells is low, potential exists for medium to large capacity collector wells to capture a fraction of the surface water contaminants during flood. Prior monitoring and current modeling results indicate that a small-capacity (peak pumpage 0.0315 m3/s) vertical bank filtration well may not be affected by river water nitrate and atrazine even during flood periods. For a medium capacity (0.0875-0.175 m3/s) hypothetical collector well at the same site, potential exists for a portion of the river water nitrate and atrazine to enter the well during flood periods. Various combinations of hydraulic conductivity of the riverbed or bank material were used. For nitrate, it was assumed either no denitrification occurred during the period of simulation or a half-life of 2 years. Equilibrium controlled sorption (organic carbon partition coefficient of 52 ml/g) and a half-life of between 7.5 and 15 weeks were considered for atrazine. Combinations of these parameters were used in various simulations. Peak concentrations of atrazine or nitrate in pumped water could vary from less than 1% to as high as 90% of that in the river. It was found that a combination of river stage, pumping rates, hydraulic properties of the riverbed and bank, and soil/pesticide properties could affect contaminant entry from river water to any of these wells. If the hydraulic conductivity of the bed and bank material were low, atrazine would not reach the pumping well with or without sorption and degradation. However, for moderately low permeable bank and bed materials, some atrazine from river water could enter a hypothetical collector well while pumping at 0.0875 m3/s. It was interesting to note that doubling the pumpage of this collector well would bring in more ground water from the aquifer (with no atrazine) and thus have a lower concentration of atrazine in the filtrate. For highly conductive banks, it is possible to find some atrazine at a vertical well for a sustained pumpage rate of 0.0125 m3/s if the effect of sorption is neglected. However, with equilibrium sorption, the concentration would be below the detection limit. On the other hand, if a collector well of capacity 0.0875 m3/s is used at the place of the vertical well with highly conductive banks, atrazine concentration in the filtrate would be about 80% of river water even assuming equilibrium sorption and a half-life of 7.5 weeks. Remediation of river water contamination of the aquifer using 'scavenger' wells between the river and the pumping well(s) was not a feasible option due to the contact of the aquifer with a highly conductive bank at the site. However, moving the existing pumping well(s) 100 m upstream would have negligible impact from the bank-stored water. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Journal of Hydrology↗

USGS2013

Native Prairie Adaptive Management: a multi region adaptive approach to invasive plant management on Fish and Wildlife Service owned native prairies

Much of the native prairie managed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of the northern Great Plains is extensively invaded by the introduced cool-season grasses, smooth brome ( Bromus inermis ) and Kentucky bluegrass ( Poa pratensis ). Management to suppress these invasive plants has had poor to inconsistent success. The central challenge to managers is selecting appropriate management actions in the face of biological and environmental uncertainties. In partnership with the FWS, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) developed an adaptive decision support framework to assist managers in selecting management actions under uncertainty and maximizing learning from management outcomes. This joint partnership is known as the Native Prairie Adaptive Management (NPAM) initiative. The NPAM decision framework is built around practical constraints faced by FWS refuge managers and includes identification of the management objective and strategies, analysis of uncertainty and construction of competing decision models, monitoring, and mechanisms for model feedback and decision selection. Nineteen FWS field stations, spanning four states of the PPR, have participated in the initiative. These FWS cooperators share a common management objective, available management strategies, and biological uncertainties. Though the scope is broad, the initiative interfaces with individual land managers who provide site-specific information and receive updated decision guidance that incorporates understanding gained from the collective experience of all cooperators. We describe the technical components of this approach, how the components integrate and inform each other, how data feedback from individual cooperators serves to reduce uncertainty across the whole region, and how a successful adaptive management project is coordinated and maintained on a large scale. During an initial scoping workshop, FWS cooperators developed a consensus management objective: increase the composition of native grasses and forbs on native sod while minimizing cost. Cooperators agreed that decision guidance should be provided annually and should account for local, real-time vegetation conditions observed on the ground. Over the course of development, two prototypes of the decision framework were considered. The final framework recognized four alternative actions that managers could take in any given year: (1) Graze—targeted use of grazing ungulates to achieve defoliation, (2) Burn—application of prescribed fire as the single form of defoliation, (3) Burn/Graze—a combination treatment, and (4) Rest—no action. The study area included northern mixed-grass and tallgrass prairie. Native vegetation in mixed–grass prairie has a strong cool-season component and thus the dominant native species have a phenology similar to that of smooth brome and Kentucky bluegrass, making management of those species challenging. In contrast, tallgrass prairie has a strong warm-season native component, leading to an existence of cool-season windows, periods of time in the fall and spring when cool‐season invasive grass species are actively growing and vulnerable to damage via select management actions, but warm‐season grass species are not active and are thus less susceptible to damage via the same actions. This dichotomy between prairie types necessitated the development of separate but parallel decision support systems for mixed-grass and tallgrass biomes. Management units are parcels of native prairie that receive a single management treatment at any one time over their entire extent. At any particular time, the vegetation state of each management unit is characterized by the amount of cover of native grasses and forbs and the type of invasive grass that is dominant. In addition, each unit has a defoliation state which reflects the number of years since the last defoliation event and an index to how intensively the unit was managed during the previous 7 years. State-transition models are used to predict the state of a management unit in year t+1 from its state in year t and a prescribed management action that was applied between the two monitoring events. Alternative models are built around key uncertainties that make choice of a management action difficult. Three uncertainties revolve around whether the effect of management actions depends on (1) type of dominant invader, (2) past defoliation history, and (3) level of invasion. Two additional uncertainties are considered when choosing a management action for tallgrass units: (4) the effectiveness of grazing within the cool-season window as a surrogate for burning when smooth brome is the dominant invader, and (5) the differential effect of active management outside the window as compared to rest. Because data on the probability of transitioning from one state to another under the various models were lacking, expert opinion and elicitation were used to parameterize the models. In addition, cooperators participated in elicitation exercises to extract their beliefs regarding the value of having native prairie compared to the cost of achieving it. Quantifying the subjective expression of utility in this way allowed for mathematical representation of the management objective into an objective function. By maximizing the objective function, cumulative utility is maximized, leading to the identification of a sequence of decisions that will achieve the management objective. The NPAM system adopted a vegetation monitoring protocol that was rapid, inexpensive, and familiar to many of the cooperators. The monitoring protocol served three purposes: (1) determining current vegetation and defoliation states of each unit, (2) evaluating progress toward the management objective, and (3) assessing predictive performance of the alternative models. The management year runs from September 1 to August 31. Management can be applied anytime during that period and monitoring takes places from late June to mid-August. Cooperators enter vegetation data and management information into a centralized database by August 25 of each year. Given the current state of the system (vegetation and defoliation states) and the current understanding of the system (or the belief state), identifying the current best management decision is a matter of looking up the combination (that is, system state and belief state) in the appropriate (mixed-grass or tallgrass) optimal decision table. Given complete uncertainty at the outset of decision-making, initial assignment of equal belief weights to each model was believed reasonable. The decisions in the optimal decision table that correspond to the current belief state constitute the current optimal decision policy. By August 31 of each year, individual cooperators are provided with a recommended management action for each of their management units for the upcoming management year. Upon receiving the management recommendations for their units, managers consider the recommendation, along with other relevant information, and at some point during the year one of the management alternatives is carried out. This iterative cycle of making and implementing a management decision, predicting the response, monitoring the outcome, comparing predicted and observed outcomes, updating model weights, and recommending a management action for the next cycle is expected to result in an accumulation of weight on a representative model of system dynamics, thereby increasing understanding needed to effectively manage native prairies. The NPAM system is now entering its second full year of complete operation, and represents one of only a few fully implemented applications of adaptive management within the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. NPAM is truly unique in that it originated from the ground up as a result of the leadership and steadfastness of several refuge biologists and managers confronted with a common problem. These biologists recognized that working together across a large landscape presented perhaps the best opportunity for halting and reversing the invasion of native grasslands by non-native cool-season grasses. Importantly, the NPAM system encapsulates the collective thinking and experience of tens if not hundreds of individuals who have battled this vexing problem for much of their careers. The NPAM initiative is rooted in principles of adaptive management, thereby affording the opportunity for grassland managers to pursue management objectives while acquiring information to reduce uncertainty and improve future management. The project introduced a number of technical innovations that will serve as templates for conservation efforts throughout and beyond the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. First, NPAM is an on-the-ground implementation of active adaptive management—possibly the first of its kind in conservation management—in which recommended management actions result from a prospective analysis of future learning (Williams, 1996). Second, by the use of dynamic optimization, NPAM demonstrates how decisions can be made that take into account possible future transitions of the system. Third, NPAM demonstrates how models of partial controllability are an effective means of accommodating unpredictable circumstances that cause a manager to follow a different course than was intended. Finally, the database developed for NPAM is an unparalleled system that enables the rapid integration of data from the field for the generation of ‘just-in-time’ management recommendations. In all, NPAM provides an example of how a science-management partnership can be forged to achieve large-scale conservation objectives.

Minnesota;Montana;North Dakota;South Dakota↗

USGS2025

A review of abrupt permafrost thaw: Definitions, usage, and a proposed conceptual framework

Purpose of Review We review how ‘abrupt thaw’ has been used in published studies, compare these definitions to abrupt processes in other Earth science disciplines, and provide a definitive framework for how abrupt thaw should be used in the context of permafrost science. Recent Findings We address several aspects of permafrost systems necessary for abrupt thaw to occur and propose a framework for classifying permafrost processes as abrupt thaw in the future. Based on a literature review and our collective expertise, we propose that abrupt thaw refers to thaw processes that lead to a substantial persistent environmental change within a few decades. Abrupt thaw typically occurs in ice-rich permafrost but may be initiated in ice-poor permafrost by external factors such as hydrologic change (i.e., increased streamflow, soil moisture fluctuations, altered groundwater recharge) or wildfire. Summary Permafrost thaw alters greenhouse gas emissions, soil and vegetation properties, and hydrologic flow, threatening infrastructure and the cultures and livelihoods of northern communities. The term ‘abrupt thaw’ has emerged in scientific discourse over the past two decades to differentiate processes that rapidly impact large depths of permafrost, such as thermokarst, from more gradual, top-down thaw processes that impact centimeters of near-surface permafrost over years to decades. However, there has been no formal definition for abrupt thaw and its use in the scientific literature has varied considerably. Our standardized definition of abrupt thaw offers a path forward to better understand drivers and patterns of abrupt thaw and its consequences for global greenhouse gas budgets, impacts to infrastructure and land-use, and Arctic policy- and decision-making.

Current Climate Change Reports↗

USGS2023

Estimating population viability of the northern Great Plains piping plover population considering updated population structure, climate change, and intensive management

One challenge in wildlife conservation is understanding how various threats and management actions may influence long-term population viability. This is particularly evident when there is considerable uncertainty regarding population structure and vital rates. Reassessment of current knowledge and population trends is necessary for listed species to improve management actions that benefit conservation. We present an updated population viability analysis for northern Great Plains piping plovers ( Charadrius melodus circumcinctus ) based on the latest scientific data on survival, fecundity, and connectivity. Further, we explore the consequences of potential management actions and the stochastic effects of global climate change on population viability through changes in survival and fecundity. Our results predict elevated risks of extinction after 50 years (0.088 – 0.373) compared to previous predictions (0.033) based on assumed conditions of low connectivity among four major breeding groups structured as a metapopulation. We explored eight scenarios based on empirically-derived, higher connectivity rates and found that the northern Great Plains population never had a mean predicted population growth rate greater than one (0.946 – 0.996). Two scenarios that simulated a reduction in adult survival showed higher extinction probabilities (0.267 – 0.373), whereas two other scenarios that simulated an increase in fecundity exhibited lower extinction probabilities (0.088 – 0.103). These results indicate that viability of the northern Great Plains population of piping plovers could be improved with management actions that increase fecundity as long as adult survival is not simultaneously reduced. Lastly, breeding groups appeared to function less independently when connectivity rates were higher, as the breeding population was divided evenly among breeding groups. This indicates that the presumed metapopulation structure of our study system may need to be re-evaluated, and that empirically-based estimates of connectivity are essential to assessing population viability of mobile species that exhibit a spatially structured distribution.

Frontiers in Bird Science↗

USGS2026

Temperature and precipitation source variability and glacial dynamics in the southwestern United States at Fish Lake, Utah, since late MIS 4

An improved understanding of hydroclimate response to natural climate forcings is needed to evaluate impacts of changing seasonal circulation patterns on current and future drought in the southwestern United States (‘the Southwest’). However, few terrestrial records from the Southwest preserve changes in moisture availability continuously prior to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ∼24.5 ka). Fish Lake, in the Upper Colorado River Basin, preserves a long (∼67 ka), continuous, high-resolution (∼3.3 cm/century) sedimentary record spanning from late Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 4 to present. Here, we investigate the relative contributions of seasonal precipitation and moisture source using the hydrogen isotope value of the n -C 29 leaf wax alkane and changes in temperature using branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs). During the warm post glacial period (14 ka to present), a greater contribution of annual precipitation is sourced from the North American Monsoon (NAM) in response to declining winter insolation and rising greenhouse gases, weakening westerly storms and shifting them northward. MIS 3 (∼61 to 29 ka) is also influenced by NAM inputs, however, to a smaller magnitude than during the post glacial period when temperatures were warmer. However, stadial periods (MIS 2, 29 to 14.1 ka) show 2 H-enriched values, suggesting warm conditions and large contributions of NAM precipitation during the LGM, contradicting other proxies and regional records. The LGM is the only period in the record where glaciers are present in the catchment, thus we hypothesize glacial erosion reworked pre-LGM aged soil organic matter and biased the record during this time.

Utah↗

USGS2025

Tapwater exposures, residential risk, and mitigation in a PFAS-impacted-groundwater community

Tapwater (TW) safety and sustainability are priorities in the United States. Per/polyfluoroalkyl substance(s) (PFAS) contamination is a growing public-health concern due to prolific use, widespread TW exposures, and mounting human-health concerns. Historically-rural, actively-urbanizing communities that rely on surficial-aquifer private wells incur elevated risks of unrecognized TW exposures, including PFAS, due to limited private-well monitoring and contaminant-source proliferation in urbanizing landscapes. Here, a broad-analytical-scope TW-assessment was conducted in a hydrologically-vulnerable, Mississippi River alluvial-island community, where PFAS contamination of the shallow-alluvial drinking-water aquifer has been documented, but more comprehensive contaminant characterization to inform decision-making is currently lacking. In 2021, we analyzed 510 organics, 34 inorganics, and 3 microbial groups in 11 residential and community locations to assess (1) TW risks beyond recognized PFAS issues, (2) day-to-day and year-to-year risk variability, and (3) suitability of the underlying sandstone aquifer as an alternative source to mitigate TW-PFAS exposures. Seventy-six organics and 25 inorganics were detected. Potential human-health risks of detected TW exposures were explored based on cumulative benchmark-based toxicity quotients ( ∑ TQ ). Elevated risks ( ∑ TQ ≥ 1) from organic and inorganic contaminants were observed in all alluvial-aquifer-sourced synoptic samples but not in sandstone-aquifer-sourced samples. Repeated sampling at 3 sites over 52–55 h indicated limited variability in risk over the short-term. Comparable PFAS-specific ∑ TQ for spatial-synoptic, short-term (3 days) temporal, and long-term (3 years quarterly) temporal samples indicated that synoptic results provided useful insight into the risks of TW-PFAS exposures at French Island over the long-term. No PFAS detections in sandstone-aquifer-sourced samples over a 3 year period indicated no PFAS-associated risk and supported the sandstone aquifer as an alternative drinking-water source to mitigate community TW-PFAS exposures. This study illustrated the importance of expanded contaminant monitoring of private-well TW, beyond known concerns (in this case, PFAS), to reduce the risks of a range of unrecognized contaminant exposures.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2012

Status and trends in the fish community of Lake Superior, 2012

The Great Lakes Science Center has conducted daytime nearshore bottom trawl surveys of Lake Superior (15-80 m bathymetric depth zone) each spring since 1978 and an offshore survey (>80 m) since 2011 to provide long-term trends of relative abundance and biomass of the fish community. In 2012, 72 nearshore and 34 offshore stations were sampled with a 12-m Yankee bottom trawl. The 2012 estimate of lake-wide nearshore fish community biomass was 1.14 kg/ha, second lowest in the 35-year survey history, down from 3.63 kg/ha observed in the 2011 survey. Dominant species in the catch, in order of relative biomass, were bloater, rainbow smelt, lake whitefish, pygmy whitefish, and shortjaw cisco. Compared to 2011 levels, biomass of all species decreased. Year-class strengths for the 2011 cisco and bloater cohorts were well below average and ranked as the second weakest year-classes in the past 35 years. Year-class strength of rainbow smelt was the weakest in the survey record, continuing a decline that began in 2008. As in 2011, densities of hatchery lake trout remained near zero in 2012, while densities of wild (lean) lake trout and siscowet lake trout decreased. Proportions of total lake trout density in 2012 that were hatchery, wild, and siscowet were 5, 74, and 21%, respectively. The 2012 estimate of lake-wide offshore fish community biomass was 6.9 kg/ha, down from 9.0 kg/ha in 2011. Deepwater sculpin, kiyi, and siscowet lake trout represented 98% of the fish caught in terms of both density and biomass. Community composition, number of species collected and densities and biomass for most species were similar to that observed in 2011. Due to ship mechanical failures, nearshore sampling was delayed from mid-May to mid-June to mid-June to late August. The shift to summer sampling when the lake was stratified may have affected our estimates, thus our estimates of status and trends for the nearshore fish community in 2012 are tentative, pending results of future surveys. However, the results of the 2012 survey are comparable with those during 2009 and 2010 when lake-wide fish biomass declined to < 1.40 kg/ha. Declines in prey fish biomass since the late 1990s can be attributed to a combination of increased predation by recovered lake trout populations and infrequent and weak recruitment by the principal prey fishes, cisco and bloater. In turn declines in lake trout biomass since the mid-2000s are likely linked to declines in prey fish biomass. If lean and siscowet lake trout populations in nearshore waters continue to remain at current levels, predation mortality will likely maintain the relatively low prey fish biomass observed in recent years. Alternatively, if lake trout populations show a substantial decline in abundance in upcoming years, prey fish populations may rebound in a fashion reminiscent to what occurred in the late 1970s to mid-1980s. However, this scenario depends on substantial increases in harvest of lake trout, which seems unlikely given that levels of lake trout harvest have been flat or declining in many regions of Lake Superior since 2000.

Lake Superior↗

USGS2023

Dating the penultimate great earthquake in south-central Alaska using tree-ring crossdating and radiocarbon wiggle-matching

A forest bed of tree stumps currently in the intertidal zone at Girdwood, south-central Alaska, records coseismic submergence during the penultimate great earthquake. Tree-ring samples from ten spruce stumps were crossdated to develop a 149-year-long ring-width chronology. Radiocarbon wiggle-matching found that single-ring ages from the chronology were offset 28 ± 7 years older than the IntCal20 calibration curve and that the last ring of the chronology dated as 1169 to 1189 CE (781–761 cal. yr. BP) at the 95% confidence level. Bark was observed on some stumps, six samples had the same year for the last growth ring, and so this wiggle-match date is also the best estimate of the date of the penultimate great earthquake. This date is in good agreement with a date for this event in a seismo-turbidite record from Skilak Lake but not with previous dates from Bayesian models of maximum- and minimum-limiting ages from coastal salt marshes. Reanalysis of the coastal salt marsh ages with the data grouped by area, context and material found that outer wood samples from stumps at coseismic submergence sites and a Bayesian limiting age model based on just herbaceous plant ages from Turnagain Arm and the Copper River area are both consistent with our wiggle-match date. Furthermore, coseismic emergence ages from Cape Suckling and Yakataga are older than the penultimate earthquake and so likely relate to an earlier uplift event in this eastern area. The rupture extent during the penultimate great earthquake appears to have been less than in the 1964 great earthquake and the interseismic interval between these two events was 785 ± 10 years.

Alaska↗

USGS2015

Global trends in emerging viral diseases of wildlife origin

Fifty years ago, infectious diseases were rarely considered threats to wildlife populations, and the study of wildlife diseases was largely a neglected endeavor. Furthermore, public health leaders at that time had declared that “it is time to close the book on infectious diseases and the war against pestilence won,” a quote attributed to Dr. William H. Stewart in 1967. There is some debate whether he actually said these words; however, they reflect the widespread belief at that time (Spellberg, 2008). Leap forward to today, and the book on infectious diseases has been dusted off. There is general consensus that the global environment favors the emergence of infectious diseases, and in particular, diseases of wildlife origin (Taylor et al., 2001). Examples of drivers of these infectious diseases include climate and landscape changes, human demographic and behavior changes, global travel and trade, microbial adaptation, and lack of appropriate infrastructure for wildlife disease control and prevention (Daszak et al., 2001). The consequences of these emerging diseases are global and profound with increased burden on the public health system, negative impacts on the global economy and food security, declines and extinctions of wildlife species, and subsequent loss of ecosystem integrity. For example, 35 million people are currently living with HIV infection globally (http://www.who.int/gho/hiv/en); 400 million poultry have been culled since 2003 as a result of efforts to control highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza (http://www.fao.org/avianflu/en/index.html), and there are increasing biological and ecological consequences. Examples of health threats to biodiversity include the “spillover” of human diseases to great ape populations (Köndgen et al., 2008), the near-extirpation of the black-footed ferret from canine distemper and sylvatic plague (for a review see Abbott et al., 2012), and threats to Hawaiian forest birds from introduced pathogens such as avian malaria and avian pox (van Riper et al., 1986, 2002). There are also newly discovered pathogens or diseases that have resulted in population declines, and global extinctions of several species. Examples include Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, which causes a cutaneous fungal infection of amphibians and is linked to declines of amphibians globally (Kriger and Hero, 2009); and recently discovered Pseudogymnoascus (Geomyces) destructans, the etiologic agent of white-nose syndrome (WNS), which has caused precipitous declines of North American bat species (Blehert et al., 2009). Furthermore, there is increasing evidence of the subsequent impacts on human and ecosystem health; for example, increasing risk of exposure to Lyme disease as a consequence of decreased biodiversity (LoGiudice et al., 2003) as well as the economic cost of the loss of bats due to decreased insect control services (Boyles et al., 2011). Figure A12-1 is a timeline of important diseases investigated by the U.S. Geological Survey since the 1970s, which illustrates three factors: 1. The unprecedented emergence of new pathogens and geographic spread of known pathogens since the 1990s; 2. Diseases are increasingly causing large-scale, negative impacts on wildlife populations and spreading over larger geographic areas rather than remaining localized; and 3. Diseases are increasingly of concern for multiple sectors, including public health, agriculture and wildlife management agencies. Of increasing concern are these novel diseases such as WNS as they are hard to anticipate, particularly devastating to human health or wildlife populations, challenging to manage, spread over large geographic areas in short time periods, and may result in ecological ripple effects that are difficult to predict. The following article provides examples of recently emerged viral diseases of wildlife origin. The examples have been selected to illustrate the drivers of emerging viral diseases, both novel pathogens and previously known diseases, the impacts of these diseases, as well as the role of wildlife both as “villains” or reservoirs as well as “victims” of these viral diseases. The article also discusses potential management strategies for emerging viral diseases in wildlife populations and future science directions in wildlife health to prevent, prepare, respond to, and recover from these disease events. Finally, the concept of One Health and its potential role in developing solutions to these issues of mutual concern is discussed.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2020

Using environmental DNA (eDNA) to detect the endangered Spectaclecase Mussel ( Margaritifera monodonta )

Margaritifera monodonta , or the Spectaclecase Mussel, is a federally endangered freshwater mussel species that has experienced a 55% reduction in range and is currently concentrated in 3 rivers in the Midwest region of the United States (Gasconade and Meramec rivers, Missouri, and St Croix River, Wisconsin). The detection of new populations by traditional survey methods has been limited because these mussels tend to occur under large rocks and boulders. Environmental DNA (eDNA) technology has been used to detect invasive and rare species, but its use for detection of rare, benthic-dwelling species in large flowing systems has been limited. Here, we propose using eDNA to assess known populations of M. monodonta . We designed a M. monodonta -specific quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) assay and tested it using water samples from multiple M. monodonta housing tanks, water samples from 2 known mussel beds on the St Croix River, and water samples from 3 known mussel beds on the Mississippi River. We observed higher overall eDNA detection rates on the St Croix River (30.2%) compared to the upper Mississippi River (0.60%). We also observed higher eDNA detection rates (73.3–93.1%) in 2018 for samples collected during the larval release period in May compared to samples collected in August after the reproductive period had ended (55.6–70.8%) on the St Croix River. We tested samples collected at 3 distances downstream from the 2 mussel beds found in the St Croix River, but we did not observe a substantial effect of distance on our detection rates. However, we did observe greater detection rates for samples collected near the bottom compared to at the surface. Our results indicate that this novel qPCR assay can successfully detect M. monodonta eDNA and could be used to rapidly screen locations to guide intensive physical searches for populations in riverine systems.

Wisconsin, Missouri↗

USGS2010

The impact of conservation on the status of the world's vertebrates

Using data for 25,780 species categorized on the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List, we present an assessment of the status of the world's vertebrates. One-fifth of species are classified as Threatened, and we show that this figure is increasing: On average, 52 species of mammals, birds, and amphibians move one category closer to extinction each year. However, this overall pattern conceals the impact of conservation successes, and we show that the rate of deterioration would have been at least one-fifth again as much in the absence of these. Nonetheless, current conservation efforts remain insufficient to offset the main drivers of biodiversity loss in these groups: agricultural expansion, logging, overexploitation, and invasive alien species.

Science↗

USGS2011

A tree-ring reconstruction of the salinity gradient in the northern estuary of San Francisco Bay

Blue oak tree-ring chronologies correlate highly with winter–spring precipitation totals over California, with Sacramento and San Joaquin river stream flow, and with seasonal variations in the salinity gradient in San Francisco Bay. The convergence of fresh and saline currents can influence turbidity, sediment accumulation, and biological productivity in the estuary. Three selected blue oak chronologies were used to develop a 625-year-long reconstruction of the seasonal salinity gradient, or low salinity zone (LSZ), which provides a unique perspective on the interannual-to-decadal variability of this important estuarine habitat indicator. The reconstruction was calibrated with instrumental LSZ data for the winter–spring season, and explains 73% of the variance in the February–June position of the LSZ from 1956 to 2003. Because this calibration period post-dates the sweeping changes that have occurred to land cover, channel morphology, and natural streamflow regimes in California, the reconstruction provides an idealized estimate for how the LSZ might have fluctuated under the seasonal precipitation variations of the past 625 years, given the modern geometry and bathymetry of the estuary and land cover across the drainage basin. The February–June season integrates precipitation and runoff variability during the cool season, and does not extend into the late-summer dry season when LSZ extremes can negatively affect Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta (Delta) agriculture and some aquatic organisms. However, there is such strong inter-seasonal persistence in the instrumental LSZ data that precipitation totals during the cool season can strongly pre-condition LSZ position in late summer. The 625-year-long reconstruction indicates strong interannual and decadal variability, the frequent recurrence of consecutive 2-year LSZ maxima and minima, large-scale ocean atmospheric forcing, and an interesting asymmetrical influence of warm El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events.

California↗

USGS2005

Transport of chemical and microbial compounds from known wastewater discharges: Potential for use as indicators of human fecal contamination

The quality of drinking and recreational water is currently (2005) determined using indicator bacteria. However, the culture tests used to analyze for these bacteria require a long time to complete and do not discriminate between human and animal fecal material sources. One complementary approach is to use chemicals found in human wastewater, which would have the advantages of (1) potentially shorter analysis times than the bacterial culture tests and (2) being selected for human-source specificity. At 10 locations, water samples were collected upstream and at two successive points downstream from a wastewaster treatment plant (WWTP); a treated effluent sample was also collected at each WWTP. This sampling plan was used to determine the persistence of a chemically diverse suite of emerging contaminants in streams. Samples were also collected at two reference locations assumed to have minimal human impacts. Of the 110 chemical analytes investigated in this project, 78 were detected at least once. The number of compounds in a given sample ranged from 3 at a reference location to 50 in a WWTP effluent sample. The total analyte load at each location varied from 0.018 μg/L at the reference location to 97.7 μg/L in a separate WWTP effluent sample. Although most of the compound concentrations were in the range of 0.01−1.0 μg/L, in some samples, individual concentrations were in the range of 5−38 μg/L. The concentrations of the majority of the chemicals present in the samples generally followed the expected trend:  they were either nonexistent or at trace levels in the upstream samples, had their maximum concentrations in the WWTP effluent samples, and then declined in the two downstream samples. This research suggests that selected chemicals are useful as tracers of human wastewater discharge.

Environmental Science & Technology↗