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1,610 records · Page 90Linked to original sources
USGS2022

Response of Green Lake, Wisconsin, to changes in phosphorus loading, with special emphasis on near-surface total phosphorus concentrations and metalimnetic dissolved oxygen minima

Green Lake is the deepest natural inland lake in Wisconsin, with a maximum depth of about 72 meters. In the early 1900s, the lake was believed to have very good water quality (low nutrient concentrations and good water clarity) with low dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations occurring in only the deepest part of the lake. Because of increased phosphorus (P) inputs from anthropogenic activities in its watershed, total phosphorus (TP) concentrations in the lake have increased; these changes have led to increased algal production and low DO concentrations not only in the deepest areas but also in the middle of the water column (metalimnion). The U.S. Geological Survey has routinely monitored the lake since 2004 and its tributaries since 1988. Results from this monitoring led the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (WDNR) to list the lake as impaired because of low DO concentrations in the metalimnion, and they identified elevated TP concentrations as the cause of impairment. As part of this study by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Green Lake Sanitary District, the lake and its tributaries were comprehensively sampled in 2017–18 to augment ongoing monitoring that would further describe the low DO concentrations in the lake (especially in the metalimnion). Empirical and process-driven water-quality models were then used to determine the causes of the low DO concentrations and the magnitudes of P-load reductions needed to improve the water quality of the lake enough to meet multiple water-quality goals, including the WDNR’s criteria for TP and DO. Data from previous studies showed that DO concentrations in the metalimnion decreased slightly as summer progressed in the early 1900s but, since the late 1970s, have typically dropped below 5 milligrams per liter (mg/L), which is the WDNR criterion for impairment. During 2014–18 (the baseline period for this study), the near-surface geometric mean TP concentration during June–September in the east side of the lake was 0.020 mg/L and in the west side was 0.016 mg/L (both were above the 0.015-mg/L WDNR criterion for the lake), and the metalimnetic DO minimum concentrations (MOMs) measured in August ranged from 1.0 to 4.7 mg/L. The degradation in water quality was assumed to have been caused by excessive P inputs to the lake; therefore, the TP inputs to the lake were estimated. The mean annual external P load during 2014–18 was estimated to be 8,980 kilograms per year (kg/yr), of which monitored and unmonitored tributary inputs contributed 84 percent, atmospheric inputs contributed 8 percent, waterfowl contributed 7 percent, and septic systems contributed 1 percent. During fall turnover, internal sediment recycling contributed an additional 7,040 kilograms that increased TP concentrations in shallow areas of the lake by about 0.020 mg/L. The elevated TP concentrations then persisted until the following spring. On an annual basis, however, there was a net deposition of P to the bottom sediments. Empirical models were used to describe how the near-surface water quality of Green Lake would be expected to respond to changes in external P loading. Predictions from the models showed a relatively linear response between P loading and TP and chlorophyll- a (Chl- a ) concentrations in the lake, with the changes in TP and Chl- a concentrations being less on a percentage basis (50–60 percent for TP and 30–70 percent for Chl- a ) than the changes in P loading. Mean summer water clarity, quantified by Secchi disk depths, had a greater response to decreases in P loading than to increases in P loading. Based on these relations, external P loading to the lake would need to be decreased from 8,980 kg/yr to about 5,460 kg/yr for the geometric mean June–September TP concentration in the east side of the lake, with higher TP concentrations than in the west side, to reach the WDNR criterion of 0.015 mg/L. This reduction of 3,520 kg/yr is equivalent to a 46-percent reduction in the potentially controllable external P sources (all external sources except for precipitation, atmospheric deposition, and waterfowl) from those measured during water years 2014–18. The total external P loading would need to decrease to 7,680 kg/yr (a 17-percent reduction in potentially controllable external P sources) for near-surface June–September TP concentrations in the west side of the lake to reach 0.015 mg/L. Total external P loading would need to decrease to 3,870–5,320 kg/yr for the lake to be classified as oligotrophic, with a near-surface June–September TP concentration of 0.012 mg/L. Results from the hydrodynamic water-quality model GLM–AED (General Lake Model coupled to the Aquatic Ecodynamics modeling library) indicated that MOMs are driven by external P loading and internal sediment recycling that lead to high TP concentrations during spring and early summer, which in turn lead to high phytoplankton production, high metabolism and respiration, and ultimately DO consumption in the upper, warmer areas of the metalimnion. GLM–AED results indicated that settling of organic material during summer might be slowed by the colder, denser, and more viscous water in the metalimnion and thus increase DO consumption. Based on empirical evidence from a comparison of MOMs with various meteorological, hydrologic, water quality, and in-lake physical factors, MOMs were lower during summers, when metalimnetic water temperatures were warmer, near-surface Chl- a and TP concentrations were higher, and Secchi depths were lower. GLM–AED results indicated that the external P load would need to be reduced to about 4,060 kg/yr, a 57-percent reduction from that measured in 2014–18, to eliminate the occurrence of MOMs less than 5 mg/L during more than 75 percent of the years (the target provided by the WDNR). Large reductions in external P loading are expected to have an immediate effect on the near-surface TP concentrations and metalimnetic DO concentrations in Green Lake; however, it may take several years for the full effects of the external-load reduction to be observed because internal sediment recycling is an important source of P for the following spring.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2021

Appendix E. Water quality and hydrology of Green Lake, Wisconsin, and the response in its near-surface water-quality and metalimnetic dissolved oxygen minima to changes in phosphorus loading

Green Lake is the deepest natural inland lake in Wisconsin, USA, with a maximum depth of about 72 meters (m). In the early 1900’s, the lake was believed to have very good water quality (low nutrient concentrations and good water clarity), with low dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations only in the deepest part of the lake. Because of increased phosphorus (P) inputs from anthropogenic activities in its watershed, total phosphorus (TP) concentrations in the lake increased, which led to increased algal production and low DO concentrations not only occurring in its deepest areas but also in the middle of the water column (metalimnion). Routine monitoring of the lake and its tributaries has been conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey since 2004 and 1988, respectively. Results from this monitoring led to the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (WDNR) listing the lake as impaired because of low DO concentrations in the metalimnion, with elevated TP concentrations identified as the cause of impairment. As part of this study, comprehensive sampling of the lake and its tributaries was conducted in 2017–2018 to augment ongoing monitoring and further describe the low DO concentrations in the lake (especially in the metalimnion). Empirical and process-driven water quality models were then used to determine the causes of the low DO concentrations and the magnitude of P load reductions needed to improve the water quality of the lake to meet multiple water-quality goals, including the WDNR criteria for TP and DO. Data from previous studies showed that DO concentrations in the metalimnion decreased slightly as summer progressed in the early 1900’s, but since the late 1970s have typically dropped below 5 milligrams per liter (mg/L), which is the WDNR criterion for impairment. During 2014–2018 (baseline period for this study), the near-surface geometric-mean TP concentration during June–September in the east side of the lake was 0.020 mg/L and in the west side was 0.016 mg/L (both were below the 0.015 mg/L WDNR criterion for the lake), and the minimum metalimnetic DO concentrations measured in August ranged from 1.0 to 4.7 mg/L. It was believed that the degradation in water quality was caused by excessive P inputs to the lake; therefore, the total P inputs to the lake were estimated. The mean annual external P load during 2014–2018 was estimated to be 8,980 kilograms per year (kg/yr), of which monitored and unmonitored tributary inputs contributed 84 percent, atmospheric inputs contributed 8 percent, waterfowl contributed 7 percent, and septic systems contributed 1 percent. At fall turnover, internal sediment recycling contributed an additional 7,040 kg that increased TP concentrations in shallow areas of the lake by about 0.020 mg/L. The elevated TP concentrations then persisted until the following spring. On an annual basis, however, there is a net deposition of P to the bottom sediments. Empirical models were used to describe how the near-surface water quality of Green Lake would be expected to respond to changes in external P loading. Predictions from the models showed a relatively linear response between P loading and TP and chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentrations in the lake, with the changes in TP and Chl-a concentrations being less on a percentage basis (50–60 percent for TP and 30–70 percent for Chl-a) than the changes in P loading. Mean summer water clarity, indicated by Secchi disk depths, had a larger response to decreases in P loading than to increases in loading. Based on these relations, external P loading to the lake would need to be decreased from 8,980 kg/yr to about 5,460 kg/yr for the geometric mean June–September TP concentration on the east side of the lake, with higher TP concentrations than the west side, to reach the WDNR criterion of 0.015 mg/L. This reduction of 3,520 kg/yr equates to a 46-percent reduction in the potentially controllable external P sources (all external sources except precipitation, atmospheric deposition, and waterfowl) from that measured during water years (WYs) 2014–2018. The total external P loading would need to be decreased to 7,680 kg/yr (17-percent reduction in potentially controllable external P sources) for near-surface June–September TP concentrations in the west side of the lake to reach 0.015 mg/L. Total external P loading would need to be decreased to 3,870–5,320 kg/yr for the lake to be classified as oligotrophic, with a near-surface June-September TP concentration of 0.012 mg/L. Results from the hydrodynamic water-quality model GLM-AED (General Lake Model coupled to the Aquatic Ecodynamics modeling library) indicated that metalimnetic DO minima are driven by external P loading and internal sediment recycling that lead to high TP concentrations during spring and early summer, which in turn lead to high phytoplankton production, high metabolism and respiration, and ultimately DO consumption in the upper, warmer areas of the metalimnion. GLM-AED results indicated that settling of organic material during summer may be slowed by the colder, denser, and more viscous water in the metalimnion and increase DO consumption. Based on empirical evidence comparing minimum metalimnetic DO concentrations with various meteorological, hydrologic, water quality, and in-lake physical factors, lower metalimnetic DO concentrations occurred when there was warmer metalimnetic water temperatures, higher near-surface Chl-a and TP concentrations, and lower Secchi depths during summer. GLM-AED results indicated that the external P load would need to be reduced to about 4,010 kg/yr, a 57-percent reduction from that measured in 2014–2018, to eliminate the occurrence of metalimnetic DO minima of less than 5 mg/L in over 75 percent of the years (the target provided by the WDNR). Large reductions in external P loading are expected to have an immediate effect on the near-surface TP concentrations and metalimnetic DO concentrations in Green Lake. However, it may take several years for the full effects of the external load reduction to be observed because internal sediment recycling is an important source of P for the following spring.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2016

Hydrological conditions and evaluation of sustainable groundwater use in the Sierra Vista Subwatershed, Upper San Pedro Basin, southeastern Arizona

This study assessed progress toward achieving sustainable groundwater use in the Sierra Vista Subwatershed of the Upper San Pedro Basin, Arizona, through evaluation of 14 indicators of sustainable use. Sustainable use of groundwater in the Sierra Vista Subwatershed requires, at a minimum, a stable rate of groundwater discharge to, and thus base flow in, the San Pedro River. Many of the 14 indicators are therefore related to long-term or short-term effects on base flow and provide us with a means to evaluate groundwater discharge to and base flow in the San Pedro River. The indicators were based primarily on 10 to 20 years of data monitoring in the subwatershed, ending in 2012, and included subwatershedwide indicators, riparian-system indicators, San Pedro River indicators, and springs indicators. Groundwater management actions including voluntary retirement of irrigation pumping in the subwatershed resulted in about a 5,100 acre-feet (acre-ft) reduction in net human use from 2002 to 2012. Subwatershed population increased more than 10,000 during the same period. Most of the reduction occurred during 2002–07 and included reductions in groundwater pumping and increases in managed recharge; net human use varied annually by a few hundred acre-ft during 2007–12. The groundwater budget for 2012 showed a deficit of about 5,000 acre-ft, although the total water-budget uncertainty was about 5,500 acre-ft. In the vicinity of the U.S. Army’s Fort Huachuca, regional-aquifer water levels were in steady decline beginning in at least the mid-1990s (in older wells since at least the early-1970s), as the cone of depression centered on the Sierra Vista and Fort Huachuca pumping centers continued to deepen. This was evident in the individual water levels on Fort Huachuca, as well as from the horizontal hydraulic gradients that extend from the pumping centers toward the San Pedro and Babocomari Rivers. Basin water levels in wells southeast of Sierra Vista, away from the river, were also experiencing declines, while some water levels closer to the river were rising. Near-stream vertical gradients along the San Pedro River showed no clear increasing or decreasing trends that would indicate a shift in the direction of subsurface flow between the riverbed and the alluvial aquifer, or a trend in the magnitude of groundwater/surface-water exchange. Annual streamflow permanence data showed no clear change in streamflow permanence trends in any of the river reaches, other than those related to precipitation trends. Similarly, the single-day, dry-season, wet-dry streamflow analysis of all subwatershed river reaches indicated no change in condition over the past 14 years, with the exception of the Hereford reach, which has seen a statistically significant increase in wetted length. Dry-season, alluvial-aquifer water levels in the Hereford reach also showed a statistically significant increase. These improvements are attributed to the end of irrigation pumping in the area. Although data indicate that the length of the Fairbank North wetted reach may be in decline, it is not yet statistically significant. Stable-isotope data indicated reduced groundwater discharge to the Babocomari River in the vicinity of the Babocomari River near Tombstone gaging station and to the San Pedro River near the San Pedro River at Palominas gaging station and near the Lewis Springs DCP stage recorder. The Babocomari River near Tombstone gaging station is downgradient of the major pumping centers. The change in isotopic signature at the Lewis Springs stage recorder could have been the result of alterations in groundwater/surface-water interactions there caused by beaver damming of the river. Base flow in the San Pedro River declined over the periods of record at the three San Pedro River gaging stations in the subwatershed (Palominas, Charleston, and Tombstone), as well as at the Babocomari River near Tombstone gaging station. Precipitation declined slightly from the 1990s to the 2000s, although there is no statistically significant trend in subwatershed precipitation from 1991 to 2012. The occurrence of large winter discharge events appeared to decline and that of large summer discharge events appeared to increase over this same period. Data for physical parameters, general chemistry, nutrient species, select trace elements, and suspended sediment were collected at San Pedro River at Charleston stream-gaging station. These data were summarized over time and analyzed in relation to discharge and season as a means to assess trends over the period of analysis. Federal and State of Arizona drinking-water and human-contact standards were all met and few exceedances occurred for the ecological thresholds investigated. Several constituents showed a significant trend over the period of analysis, but only concentration and flux data for total phosphate, orthophosphate, total nitrogen, suspended sediment, and sulfate were suitable to be used in a weighted regression analysis that statistically accounted for time, discharge, and season. Sulfate concentrations and flux showed a significant downward trend over the period of analysis, whereas total phosphorus and ortho-phosphate showed a relatively small magnitude upward trend relative to standards. Suspended sediment concentrations and flux both showed a significant downward trend in the 1980s, an effect attributed to reduction of cattle in the subwatershed at about this time, and (or) increased cottonwood ( Populus fremontii ) and willow ( Salix goodingii ) recruitment, and (or) the curtailment of sand and gravel mining adjacent to the San Pedro River with the designation of the San Pedro Riparian National Conservation Area in 1988. A spike in sediment flux in 2006 may be attributable to the more than 100 debris flows in the Huachuca Mountains during the summer monsoon of that year. Spring discharge along the San Pedro River generally increased at three sites proximate to the Sierra Vista treated effluent recharge facility and varied somewhat with climate at two other sites. Median annual discharge at the recharge facility peaked in 2006, and at Murray Springs and Horsethief Spring, downgradient of the recharge facility, in 2009. Sampling for trace organic compounds in flow from springs was carried out using both discrete sampling and passive sampling methods. Spring samples thus collected showed the presence of trace-organic compounds. Lewis Springs (background site) had the least number of detections, whereas Murray Springs, located directly downgradient of the City of Sierra Vista’s treated effluent recharge facility, had the greatest number of detections of all the springs. Discrete samples from the recharge facility had more than twice the detections found in discrete samples from Murray Spring and at much higher concentrations. Few similar trace-organic compounds were detected at both the springs and the treated effluent recharge facility, and the number of detections did not increase during the collection period. Limitations of the study prevented the determination of trace-organic concentration in passive samplers and also prevented linking trace organic compounds detected at the treated effluent recharge facility with compounds detected from the springs. In particular, trace organic compounds could also derive from other sources such as septic systems. Looking at the subwatershed as a whole, base flow was in decline along the entire river reach, but determination of the specific cause of the decline was beyond the scope of this report. Conditions in the area from the municipal pumping center of Sierra Vista and Fort Huachuca northeast to the river (from about the Charleston to Tombstone gaging stations) were more commonly in decline than in regions further south. Both long-term indicators, such as regional aquifer groundwater levels and horizontal gradients, and the isotope analysis indicated that groundwater discharge to the river and thus base flow may continue to decline in that area. South of Charleston, indicators were more mixed. Some indicators in the Hereford reach suggest groundwater discharge to the San Pedro River may be increasing there, whereas some indicators in the Palominas reach suggest groundwater discharge to the river there may be declining.

Arizona↗
USGS1999

Fishes of Missouri River, chute, and flood plain habitats: Chapter 4 in Initial biotic survey of Lisbon Bottom, Big Muddy National Fish and Wildlife Refuge

The Lisbon Bottom Unit of the Big Muddy National Fish and Wildlife Refuge (Refuge) is approximately 2,200 acres and is the first complete unit of the Refuge. Primary objectives of the Refuge are to create and restore diverse riverine aquatic habitats and reconnect the Missouri River to its flood plain where feasible. Management seeks to accomplish these objectives by encouraging natural processes of erosion, deposition, and succession to the greatest extent possible. One of the most salient aquatic features of the Lisbon Bottom Unit is a newly created 2-mile-long free-flowing chute, or side channel (Fig. 1). This chute began forming as a levee breech scour hole during the Great Flood of 1993. The chute continued to develop during the 1995 flood and finally cut through to a flowing side channel during the 1996 flood. Extensive erosion and bank sluffing continued during 1997 due to sustained high flows that occurred throughout most of the year. The chute has progressively become wider and deeper with a developing meander pattern and channel bars have begun to form. Lisbon Bottom also contains several seasonal and permanent wetlands and is subject to periodic flooding at high Missouri River stages. Eight studies have been completed or are ongoing to evaluate Missouri River fishes associated with various habitat components of Lisbon Bottom and adjacent Missouri River reaches (Table 1). Several are part of much larger investigations to evaluate fish use of flood-created habitat features, basinwide fish assessment, and endangered or candidate species concerns. At the Lisbon Bottom Unit or in the Missouri River adjacent to the unit 54 fish species were collected (Table 2). Eight of these species have either a protected status under State or Federal laws or biologists consider them to potentially qualify for protected status. The status of the following fish is listed in Table 2: pallid sturgeon x shovelnose sturgeon hybrid, paddlefish, northern pike, sturgeon chub, sicklefin chub, ghost shiner, western silvery minnow, plains minnow, and blue sucker. Equally important to note are fish species that were not collected. The flathead chub, currently listed as State endangered and proposed for Federal listing, were not collected in any of the studies. Common fish species, collected in all seven sampling studies, included gizzard shad, common carp, river carpsucker, and freshwater drum. Paddlefish, skipjack herring, silver carp, white sucker, redfin shiner, western silvery minnow, bullhead minnow, and black bullhead were each collected in only one of the seven studies. Pflieger (1971) developed a guild system for the fishes of Missouri based on distribution patterns and centers of abundance. Fish were assigned to one of four primary faunal groups: Ozark, Big River, Lowland, and Prairie. Two secondary groups (Ozark-prairie and Ozark-lowland) were defined for species equally abundant and distributed in two of the primary areas. Two Ozark-prairie species, shorthead redhorse and white sucker, were collected on or near the Lisbon Bottom Unit. Big River species are found primarily in the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers. The environmental factors controlling fish distribution in these rivers appear to be substrate, current velocity, and turbidity. On or near the Lisbon Bottom Unit 18 Big River species were collected (Table 2). Lowland species are intolerant of siltation and high turbidity. They inhabit standing or slow-moving water with sand, fine gravel, and organic debris substrates. Two Lowland species, bullhead minnow and mosquitofish, were collected in connected scours on the Lisbon Bottom Unit. Prairie species have broader ecological tolerances than the Ozark and Lowland species. They are largely absent in high gradient streams and cool, clear waters. Prairie species make up a significant proportion of Missouri and Mississippi River fishes. Seven Prairie species were collected on or near the Lisbon Bottom Unit (Table 2). The last group, Wide-ranging, was defined as the species more widespread than the other faunal groups with broader environmental tolerances. Most Wide-ranging species occur at least occasionally in all sections of the state. Nineteen Wide-ranging species were collected on or near the Lisbon Bottom Unit (Table 2). Kubisiak (1997) found that isolated scours in the Lower Missouri River were dominated by Wide-ranging species. Connected scours also held Wideranging species but they contained Prairie species and were dominated by Big River species. Faunal group diversity and species richness were compared between isolated (Study l) and connected (Studies 4, 5, 7, and 8) scours of the Lisbon Bottom Unit. Species richness was similar with 22 species collected in isolated scours and an average of 24.8 species collected in connected scours. Isolated scour fish catches were dominated by Wide-ranging fish (59%) with 14% Big River fishes and 14% Prairie fishes. Connected scours had a larger percentage of Big River fish (32%) and fewer Wide-ranging (36%) and Prairie (13%) species than the isolated scours. In the combined studies, Wide-ranging fish dominated the connected scours. A similar comparison was made of fish from chute habitats and the Missouri River. Chute habitats include the Lisbon Bottom Chute, the chute between the right bank and island located at river mile 219, and a shallow channel running between a large sandbar complex and the channel border adjacent to Lisbon Bottom. Species richness in the chutes (35 species) was greater than that of the adjacent river (23 species). Big River species (40%) dominated the chute samples, followed by Wide-ranging at 31% Cand Prairie Cut 14%. The river samples contained equal numbers of Wide-ranging species (35%) and Big River species (35%) with 17% Prairie species. Differences in fish guild diversity and species richness may be due to numerous factors including sampling effort and sampling season. River samples were collected only in Study 3 in October; chute samples were collected in July, August, and October. Fish may have been using the chute in July and August to spawn, feed, or escape high river levels. The Lisbon Bottom Chute is a truly unique feature of the Lower Missouri River. It is the first naturally created side channel to develop since the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers tamed the river. The Corps eliminated 89% of the islands in the Missouri River between 1879 and 1954 (Funk and Robinson 1974). The chutes between the islands and the shore were shallower with less current than the main channel. These areas provided diversity to the Missouri River fish habitat, serving as nursery and feeding areas. The Lisbon Bottom Unit of the Big Muddy National Fish and Wildlife Refuge will continue to be studied in an effort to understand the complex role these areas play in river systems.

Missouri↗
USGS2014

Simulation of the effects of rainfall and groundwater use on historical lake water levels, groundwater levels, and spring flows in central Florida

The urbanization of central Florida has progressed substantially in recent decades, and the total population in Lake, Orange, Osceola, Polk, and Seminole Counties more than quadrupled from 1960 to 2010. The Floridan aquifer system is the primary source of water for potable, industrial, and agricultural purposes in central Florida. Despite increases in groundwater withdrawals to meet the demand of population growth, recharge derived by infiltration of rainfall in the well-drained karst terrain of central Florida is the largest component of the long-term water balance of the Floridan aquifer system. To complement existing physics-based groundwater flow models, artificial neural networks and other data-mining techniques were used to simulate historical lake water level, groundwater level, and spring flow at sites throughout the area. Historical data were examined using descriptive statistics, cluster analysis, and other exploratory analysis techniques to assess their suitability for more intensive data-mining analysis. Linear trend analyses of meteorological data collected by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration at 21 sites indicate 67 percent of sites exhibited upward trends in air temperature over at least a 45-year period of record, whereas 76 percent exhibited downward trends in rainfall over at least a 95-year period of record. Likewise, linear trend analyses of hydrologic response data, which have varied periods of record ranging in length from 10 to 79 years, indicate that water levels in lakes (307 sites) were about evenly split between upward and downward trends, whereas water levels in 69 percent of wells (out of 455 sites) and flows in 68 percent of springs (out of 19 sites) exhibited downward trends. Total groundwater use in the study area increased from about 250 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) in 1958 to about 590 Mgal/d in 1980 and remained relatively stable from 1981 to 2008, with a minimum of 559 Mgal/d in 1994 and a maximum of 773 Mgal/d in 2000. The change in groundwater-use trend in the early 1980s and the following period of relatively slight trend is attributable to the concomitant effects of increasing public-supply withdrawals and decreasing use of water by the phosphate industry and agriculture. On the basis of available historical data and exploratory analyses, empirical lake water-level, groundwater-level, and spring-flow models were developed for 22 lakes, 23 wells, and 6 springs. Input time series consisting of various frequencies and frequency-band components of daily rainfall (1942 to 2008) and monthly total groundwater use (1957 to 2008) resulted in hybrid signal-decomposition artificial neural network models. The final models explained much of the variability in observed hydrologic data, with 43 of the 51 sites having coefficients of determination exceeding 0.6, and the models matched the magnitude of the observed data reasonably well, such that models for 32 of the 51 sites had root-mean-square errors less than 10 percent of the measured range of the data. The Central Florida Artificial Neural Network Decision Support System was developed to integrate historical databases and the 102 site-specific artificial neural network models, model controls, and model output into a spreadsheet application with a graphical user interface that allows the user to simulate scenarios of interest. Overall, the data-mining analyses indicate that the Floridan aquifer system in central Florida is a highly conductive, dynamic, open system that is strongly influenced by external forcing. The most important external forcing appears to be rainfall, which explains much of the multiyear cyclic variability and long-term downward trends observed in lake water levels, groundwater levels, and spring flows. For most sites, groundwater use explains less of the observed variability in water levels and flows than rainfall. Relative groundwater-use impacts are greater during droughts, however, and long-term trends in water levels and flows were identified that are consistent with historical groundwater-use patterns. The sensitivity of the hydrologic system to rainfall is expected, owing to the well-drained karst terrain and relatively thin confinement of the Floridan aquifer system in much of central Florida. These characteristics facilitate the relatively rapid transmission of infiltrating water from rainfall to the water table and contribute to downward leakage of water to the Floridan aquifer system. The areally distributed nature of rainfall, as opposed to the site-specific nature of groundwater use, and the generally high transmissivity and low storativity properties of the semiconfined Floridan aquifer system contribute to the prevalence of water-level and flow patterns that mimic rainfall patterns. In general, the data-mining analyses demonstrate that the hydrologic system in central Florida is affected by groundwater use differently during wet periods, when little or no system storage is available (high water levels), compared to dry periods, when there is excess system storage (low water levels). Thus, by driving the overall behavior of the system, rainfall indirectly influences the degree to which groundwater use will effect persistent trends in water levels and flows, with groundwater-use impacts more prevalent during periods of low water levels and spring flows caused by low rainfall and less prevalent during periods of high water levels and spring flows caused by high rainfall. Differences in the magnitudes of rainfall and groundwater use during wet and dry periods also are important determinants of hydrologic response. An important implication of the data-mining analyses is that rainfall variability at subannual to multidecadal timescales must be considered in combination with groundwater use to provide robust system-response predictions that enhance sustainable resource management in an open karst aquifer system. The data-driven approach was limited, however, by the confounding effects of correlation between rainfall and groundwater use, the quality and completeness of the historical databases, and the spatial variations in groundwater use. The data-mining analyses indicate that available historical data when used alone do not contain sufficient information to definitively quantify the related individual effects of rainfall and groundwater use on hydrologic response. The knowledge gained from data-driven modeling and the results from physics-based modeling, when compared and used in combination, can yield a more comprehensive assessment and a more robust understanding of the hydrologic system than either of the approaches used separately.

Florida↗
USGS2020

Using advanced population genomics to better understand the relationship between offshore and spawning habitat use for Atlantic Sturgeon

Atlantic Sturgeon ( Acipenser oxyrinchus oxyrinchus ) are a large-bodied anadromous fish that historically supported important fisheries along the east coast of the United States. Following years of overharvest and habitat degradation, populations experienced severe declines. In 2012, the National Marine Fisheries Service listed Atlantic Sturgeon under the Endangered Species Act (ESA; 61 FR 4722). Their listing named five Distinct Population Segments (DPSs), predicated on genetic groups composed of geographically proximate populations. Federal management of Atlantic Sturgeon presents challenges, as sturgeon from each of the five DPSs mix extensively in coastal and marine habitats yet take and recovery progress must be evaluated separately for each unit. Genetic assignment testing based on mitochondrial and microsatellite markers allows individuals to be assigned back to their natal river and DPS. However, this approach is not perfect and some individuals may be incorrectly assigned. Recent advances in genomics offer the potential of a higher resolution approach to genetic assignment testing, and thus may reduce uncertainty associated with assignment testing. In addition, genomics allows a greater number of markers to be examined from across a broader portion of the sturgeon genome, thus may provide an enhanced perspective of population structure for the species, and potentially allow other previously intractable questions to be addressed (Bernatchez et al. 2017, Supple and Shapiro 2018). We used next-generation sequencing to develop a draft genome for Atlantic Sturgeon and identify single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that could be used to resolve the natal river and DPS of individual Atlantic Sturgeon. We identified 1,210 candidate SNPs within the nuclear genome as well as 49 SNPs within the mitochondrial genome. After filtering and review, we selected 161 nuclear SNPs and 39 mitochondrial SNPs for further testing and evaluation. We used genotyping-in-thousands by sequencing (GT-seq) to simultaneously sequence nuclear SNP loci, mitochondrial SNP loci, and the existing panel of twelve microsatellite loci. This effort required a pilot sequencing run on a single sturgeon sample to test marker amplification and refine primer strengths, followed by a series of sequencing runs to generate baseline data for 288 individuals representing nine populations of Atlantic Sturgeon in four DPSs. Using baseline data from the nine populations, we ran a series of genomic analyses to characterize diversity within and among populations, providing a benchmark for this species using the new SNP markers. Allelic richness was similar for all populations, although there was a general trend of more northern population containing greater levels of allelic richness. Interestingly, we observed linkage disequilibrium among many pairs of loci within many populations. This might be the result of physical linkage but could also suggest these populations are recovering from genetic bottlenecks and/or are effectively small, leading to specific haplotypes to be favored by chance. Pairwise differentiation among populations varied among the populations ( F ST range: 0.010-0.098) and was significantly correlated ( r = 0.771; P < 0.001) to pairwise F ST observed using microsatellite markers). Population clustering and ordination techniques using the new genomic data both support an overall population structure that is similar to the current DPS management units (which were developed primarily based on microsatellite genetic data). Overall, this suggests that existing microsatellite markers and the panel of SNP markers developed in this study provide similar information about the populations structure and ecology of Atlantic Sturgeon. Given the observed differences in allele frequencies among populations, our genomic baseline supports previous assertations that Atlantic Sturgeon show natal homing, despite mixing extensively in marine waters during non-breeding periods. Lower levels of differentiation between populations in the South Atlantic DPS suggest that populations in this region may have greater levels of gene flow relative to their more northerly conspecifics, which has also previously been suggested based on microsatellite data. The observed differentiation among populations provides the necessary foundation for determining the natal river and DPS of Atlantic Sturgeon using assignment testing. We tested the utility of our new genomic baseline for resolving the population and DPS of Atlantic Sturgeon. Our nuclear SNP markers showed utility for identifying the origin of unknown Atlantic Sturgeon samples, as 86.5% were assigned to the correct DPS and 66.3% were assigned to the correct natal river. However, since this study was funded the Conservation Genetics and Genomics Laboratory at Leetown Science Center has made significant improvements to their microsatellite genetic baseline, which now performs more effectively than our new genomic approach (the genetic baseline includes 12 populations and 5 DPSs, and correctly assigns 95.8% of individuals to DPS and 84.9% of individuals to their natal population using 12 microsatellite loci). We conducted an ad hoc exploration of how additional microsatellite or nuclear SNP loci may further improve the accuracy of assignment testing. We found that additional microsatellite markers are likely to result in greater improvements in assignment efficiency than additional nuclear SNPs. However, a much larger number of SNP loci (which if identified could be sequenced using other methods that are now available; e.g., the RAD-capture approach published by Ali et al. 2016) could produce assignment efficiencies that are greater than what is currently feasible using microsatellites. In the absence of further research and development of additional SNP markers for Atlantic Sturgeon (possibly using an approach other than GT-seq), the existing microsatellite loci are the most effective means available to determine the natal river and DPS of Atlantic Sturgeon encountered in offshore waters. Because our new genomic markers were less effective than the existing panel of 12 microsatellite markers, we chose to use the existing microsatellite markers to assign Atlantic Sturgeon captured in another BOEM-funded study (cooperative agreement M16AC00003; Monitoring endangered Atlantic Sturgeon and commercial finfish habitat use offshore New York) following consultation with our project officer. Using this approach, we genotyped and assigned 186 Atlantic Sturgeon captured in coastal waters off the Rockaway Peninsula, New York. The vast majority of these sturgeon were assigned to the New York Bight DPS (94.62%), and most appear to belong to the Hudson River population (87.10%) with smaller contributions from the Delaware River population (7.53%). Smaller contributions (2.15%) were observed from six other populations, including those from the James, York, Kennebec, Ogeechee, and Edisto rivers. Although most of the fish we assigned were assigned to the nearest spawning rivers (Hudson and Delaware), the contributions from distant rivers is consistent with the propensity of this species to move long distances and form mixed stock aggregations along the continental shelf. This finding indicates that spawning populations (and their corresponding DPS) from distant locations may potentially be impacted by offshore activities. In fact, activities in this region of the New York Bight could negatively impact Atlantic Sturgeon population from at least four different DPSs. Genetic or genomic assignment testing remains an essential tool to characterize potential impacts to Atlantic Sturgeon populations and should be applied more broadly to better characterize potential impacts of activities in other locations.

Atlantic Coast↗
USGS2013

Selenium in ecosystems within the mountaintop coal mining and valley-fill region of southern West Virginia-assessment and ecosystem-scale modeling

Coal and associated waste rock are among environmental selenium (Se) sources that have the potential to affect reproduction in fish and aquatic birds. Ecosystems of southern West Virginia that are affected by drainage from mountaintop coal mines and valleys filled with waste rock in the Coal, Gauley, and Lower Guyandotte watersheds were assessed during 2010 and 2011. Sampling data from earlier studies in these watersheds (for example, Upper Mud River Reservoir) and other mining-affected watersheds also are included to assess additional hydrologic settings and food webs for comparison. Basin schematics give a comprehensive view of sampled species and Se concentration data specific to location and date. Food-web diagrams document the progression of Se trophic transfer across suspended particulate material, invertebrates, and fish for each site to serve as the basis for developing an ecosystem-scale model to predict Se exposure within the hydrologic conditions and food webs of southern West Virginia. This approach integrates a site-specific predator’s dietary exposure pathway into modeling to ensure an adequate link to Se toxicity and, thus, to species vulnerability. Site-specific fish abundance and richness data in streams documented various species of chub, shiner, dace, darters, bass, minnow, sunfish, sucker, catfish, and central stoneroller (Campostoma anomalum), mottled sculpin (Cottus bairdii), and least brook lamprey (Lampetra aepyptera). However, Se assessment species for streams, and hence, model species for streams, were limited to creek chub (Semotilus atromaculatus) and central stoneroller. Both of these species of fish are generally considered to have a high tolerance for environmental stress based on traditional comparative fish community assessment, with creek chub being present at all sites. Aquatic insects (mayfly, caddisfly, stonefly, dobsonfly, chironomid) were the main invertebrates sampled in streams. Collection of suspended particulate material acted as an integrator of organic-rich, fine-grained biomass present in streams. The base-case food web modeled for streams was suspended particulate material to aquatic insect to creek chub, with comparative modeling of a direct particulate-to-stoneroller food web. Model species for a reservoir setting were based on an earlier study of bluegill sunfish (Lepomis macrochirus), green sunfish (Lepomis cyanellus), and largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides). Several reservoir food webs were considered based on a variety of invertebrates (insect, snail, clam). For stream and reservoir settings, predicted Se concentrations in exposure scenarios showed a high degree of correlation (r 2 = 0.91 for invertebrates and 0.75 for fish) with field observations of Se concentrations when modeling was initiated from suspended-particulate-material Se concentrations and model transfer parameters defined previously in the literature were used. These strong correlations validate the derived site-specific model and establish sufficient confidence that the predictions from the developed model can be quantitatively applied to the ecosystems in southern West Virginia. An application of modeling used a metric describing the partitioning of Se between particulate material and dissolved phases (K d ) to allow determination of a dissolved Se concentration that would be necessary to attain a site-specific Se fish body burden. The operationally defined K d quantifies the complex process of transformation at the base of a food web on a site-specific basis. The magnitude of this metric is known to vary with such factors as Se speciation, particulate-material type, and hydrology. This application (1) ties dissolved Se concentrations to fish tissue concentrations; (2) allows consideration of different choices for intervening site-specific exposure steps that set Se bioaccumulation, partitioning, and bioavailability; and (3) generates implications for management decisions that define protection through different regulatory pathways and guidelines. The range of model outcomes accounts for critical sources of variability and establishes whether site and food-web characterization were adequate to represent the dynamics of the system with certainty. This is especially true in terms of particulate-material phases at the base of the food web and utilization of K d in different hydrologic settings. For streams, a range of field-derived K d ds were applied to food-web exposure scenarios within a framework of locational and hydrologic variables (area of stream basin; stream gradient and discharge) that may affect the magnitude of K d . Overlaying even a coarse temporal scale that acknowledges variability in stream dissolved Se and Se speciation, such as through seasonal derivation of K d , can substantially narrow model uncertainty. Modeling that constrains the place and time of greatest ecosystem Se sensitivity within a specified food web gives insight into Se risk and identifies controlling management alternatives within a watershed or stream basin. If there is a range of hydrologic settings, specificity is needed to establish a hierarchy of in-stream and off-stream habitats for a watershed approach that takes into account Se-enriched water moving through different K d and food web environments. If there is a range of predator vulnerabilities (measured as a combination of food-web Se biodynamics and response in Se toxicity tests) within the site-specific community of fish species to be protected, then choice of fish species is critical to protection because it determines the food web and, hence, the magnitude of biotransfer through which Se is modeled. Whether creek chub is representative of the vulnerability to Se of all fish species encountered within the study-site ecosystems will require additional species-specific data and analysis. A range of site-specific scenarios illustrated here set model outcomes, but the final quantitative evaluation of alternatives and their implications will be those generated through choices and guidance formulated by state and other agencies in their decisionmaking processes. Proposed additions and refinements to the ecosystem-scale site-specific approach developed here include consideration of: measurement of temporally matched pairs of dissolved and suspended-particulate-material Se concentrations across a broader range of stream sites to expand the stream K d database and to test the representativeness of a suspended-particulate-material sample within a stream; characterization of different phases of particulate material across seasons to better define the base of the food web and connect to invertebrate feeding; refinement of model assumptions concerning dietary preferences and composition for fish to develop additional trophic transfer factors (TTFs) (for example, calculation of TTFinvertebrate composite for mixed diets); expansion of modeling of fish species and their food webs to include Se-vulnerable species; temporal characterization of a predator’s life cycle and habitat use as additional model layers to integrate with Se biodynamics in streams; investigation of the effect of stream gradient on K d based on a finer scale than presented here in terms of such variables as residence time, watershed dilution, and physical habitat attributes (for example, amount of ponding versus run or riffle within a stream); and linkage to discharge through use of stream gaging to record variability and enable model organization within water-year types and discharge seasons. Investigating the presence and variability of prey and predator species in demographically open systems such as streams also is key to model outcomes given the overall environmental stressors (for example, general landscape change, food-web disruption, recolonization potential) imposed on the composition of biological communities in coal mining and valley-fill affected watersheds

West Virginia↗
USGS2016

Application of hydrogeology and groundwater-age estimates to assess the travel time of groundwater at the site of a landfill to the Mahomet Aquifer, near Clinton, Illinois

The U.S. Geological Survey used interpretations of hydrogeologic conditions and tritium-based groundwater age estimates to assess the travel time of groundwater at a landfill site near Clinton, Illinois (the “Clinton site”) where a chemical waste unit (CWU) was proposed to be within the Clinton landfill unit #3 (CLU#3). Glacial deposits beneath the CWU consist predominantly of low-permeability silt- and clay-rich till interspersed with thin (typically less than 2 feet in thickness) layers of more permeable deposits, including the Upper and Lower Radnor Till Sands and the Organic Soil unit. These glacial deposits are about 170 feet thick and overlie the Mahomet Sand Member of the Banner Formation. The Mahomet aquifer is composed of the Mahomet Sand Member and is used for water supply in much of east-central Illinois. Eight tritium analyses of water from seven wells were used to evaluate the overall age of recharge to aquifers beneath the Clinton site. Groundwater samples were collected from six monitoring wells on or adjacent to the CLU#3 that were open to glacial deposits above the Mahomet aquifer (the upper and lower parts of the Radnor Till Member and the Organic Soil unit) and one proximal production well (approximately 0.5 miles from the CLU#3) that is screened in the Mahomet aquifer. The tritium-based age estimates were computed with a simplifying, piston-flow assumption: that groundwater moves in discrete packets to the sampled interval by advection, without hydrodynamic dispersion or mixing. Tritium concentrations indicate a recharge age of at least 59 years (pre-1953 recharge) for water sampled from deposits below the upper part of the Radnor Till Member at the CLU#3, with older water expected at progressively greater depth in the tills. The largest tritium concentration from a well sampled by this study (well G53S; 0.32 ± 0.10 tritium units) was in groundwater from a sand deposit in the upper part of the Radnor Till Member; the shallowest permeable unit sampled by this study. That result indicated that nearly all groundwater sampled from well G53S entered the aquifer as recharge before 1953. Tritium was detected in a trace concentration in one sample from a second monitoring well open to the upper part of the Radnor Till Member (well G07S; 0.11 ± 0.09 tritium units), and not detected in samples collected from two monitoring wells open to a sand deposit in the lower part of the Radnor Till Member, from two samples collected from two monitoring wells open to the Organic Soil unit, and in two samples collected from a production well screened in the middle of the Mahomet aquifer (a groundwater sample and a sequential replicate sample). The lack of tritium in five of the six groundwater samples collected from the shallow permeable units beneath CLU#3 site and the two samples from the one Mahomet aquifer well indicates an absence of post-1952 recharge. Groundwater-flow paths that could contribute post-1952 recharge to the lower part of the Radnor Till Member, the Organic Soil unit, or the Mahomet aquifer at the CLU#3 are not indicated by these data. Hypothetical two-part mixtures of tritium-dead, pre-1953 recharge water and decay-corrected tritium concentrations in post-1952 recharge were computed and compared with tritium analyses in groundwater sampled from monitoring wells at the CLU#3 site to evaluate whether tritium concentrations in groundwater could be represented by mixtures involving some post-1952 recharge. Results from the hypothetical two-part mixtures indicate that groundwater from monitoring well (G53S) was predominantly composed of pre-1953 recharge and that if present, younger, post-1955 recharge, contributed less than 2.5 percent to that sample. The hypothetical two-part mixing results also indicated that very small amounts of post-1952 recharge composing less than about 2.5 percent of the sample volume could not be distinguished in groundwater samples with tritium concentrations less than about 0.15 TU. The piston-flow based age of recharge determined from the tritium concentration in the groundwater sample from monitoring well G53S yielded an estimated maximum vertical velocity from the land surface to the upper part of the Radnor Till Member of 0.85 feet per year or less. This velocity, ifassumed to apply to the remaining glacial till deposits above the Mahomet aquifer, indicates that recharge flows through the 170 feet of glacial deposits between the base of the proposed chemical waste unit and the top of the Mahomet aquifer in a minimum of 200 years or longer. Analysis of hydraulic data from the site, constrained by a tritium-age based maximum groundwater velocity estimate, computed minimum estimates of effective porosity that range from about 0.021 to 0.024 for the predominantly till deposits above the Mahomet aquifer. Estimated rates of transport of recharge from land surface to the Mahomet aquifer for the CLU#3 site computed using the Darcy velocity equation with site-specific data were about 260 years or longer. The Darcy velocity-based estimates were computed using values that were based on tritium data, estimates of vertical velocity and effective porosity and available site-specific data. Solution of the Darcy velocity equation indicated that maximum vertical groundwater velocities through the deposits above the aquifer were 0.41 or 0.61 feet per year, depending on the site-specific values of vertical hydraulic conductivity (laboratory triaxial test values) and effective porosity used for the computation. The resulting calculated minimum travel times for groundwater to flow from the top of the Berry Clay Member (at the base of the proposed chemical waste unit) to the top of the Mahomet aquifer ranged from about 260 to 370 years, depending on the velocity value used in the calculation. In comparison, plausible travel times calculated using vertical hydraulic conductivity values from a previously published regional groundwater flow model were either slightly less than or longer than those calculated using site data and ranged from 230 to 580 years. Tritium data from 1996 to 2011 USGS regional sampling of groundwater from domestic wells in the confined part of the Mahomet aquifer—which are 2.5 to about 40 miles from the Clinton site—were compared with site-specific data from a production well at the Clinton site. Tritium-based groundwater-age estimates indicated predominantly pre- 1953 recharge dates for USGS and other prior regional samples of groundwater from domestic wells in the Mahomet aquifer. These results agreed with the tritium-based, pre-1953 recharge age estimated for a groundwater sample and a sequential replicate sample from a production well in the confined part of the Mahomet aquifer beneath the Clinton site. The regional tritium-based groundwater age estimates also were compared with pesticide detections in samples from distal domestic wells in the USGS regional network that are about 2.5 to 40 miles from the Clinton site to identify whether very small amounts of post-1952 recharge have in places reached confined parts of the Mahomet aquifer at locations other than the Clinton site in an approximately 2,000 square mile area of the Mahomet aquifer. Very small amounts of post-1952 recharge were defined in this analysis as less than about 2.5 percent of the total recharge contributing to a groundwater sample, based on results from the two-part mixing analysis of tritium data from the Clinton site. Pesticide-based groundwater-age estimates based on 22 detections of pesticides (13 of these detections were estimated concentrations), including atrazine, deethylatrazine (2-Chloro-4-isopropylamino-6-amino- s-triazine), cyanazine, diazinon, metolachlor, molinate, prometon, and trifluralin in groundwater samples from 10 domestic wells 2.5 to about 40 miles distant from the Clinton site indicate that very small amounts of post-1956 to post-1992 recharge can in places reach the confined part of the Mahomet aquifer in other parts of central Illinois. The relative lack of tritium in these samples indicate that the amounts of post-1956 to post-1992 recharge contributing to the 10 domestic wells were a very small part of the overall older groundwater sampled from those wells. The flow process by which very small amounts of pesticide-bearing groundwater reached the screened intervals of the 10 domestic wells could not be distinguished between well-integrity related infiltration and natural hydrogeologic features. Potential explanations include: (1) infiltration through man-made avenues in or along the well, (2) flow of very small amounts of post-1956 to post-1992 recharge through sparsely distributed natural permeable aspects of the glacial till and diluted by mixing with older groundwater, or (3) a combination of both processes. Presuming the domestic wells sampled by the USGS in 1996–2011 in the regional study of the confined part of the Mahomet aquifer are adequately sealed and produce groundwater that is representative of aquifer conditions, the regional tritium and pesticide-based groundwater-age results indicate substantial heterogeneity in the glacial stratigraphy above the Mahomet aquifer. The pesticide-based groundwater-age estimates from the domestic wells distant from the Clinton site also indicate that parts of the Mahomet aquifer with the pesticide detections can be susceptible to contaminant sources at the land surface. The regional pesticide and tritium results from the domestic wells further indicate that a potential exists for possible contaminants from land surface to be transported through the glacial drift deposits that confine the Mahomet aquifer in other parts of central Illinois at faster rates than those computed for recharge at the Clinton site, including CLU#3. This analysis indicates the potential value of sub-microgram-per-liter level concentrations of land-use derived indicators of modern recharge to indicate the presence of very small amounts of modern, post-1952 age recharge in overall older, pre-1953 age groundwater.

Illinois↗