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At least 1,621 records · Page 90Linked to original sources
USGS2023

Lessons learned in applying decision analysis to natural resource management for high stakes issues surrounded by uncertainty

Management agencies are tasked with difficult decisions for conservation and management of natural resources. These decisions are difficult because of ecological and social uncertainties, the potential for multiple decision makers from multiple jurisdictions, and the need to account for the diverse values of stakeholders. Decision analysis provides a framework for accounting for these difficulties when making conservation and management decisions. We discuss the benefits of the application of decision analysis for these types of issues and provide insights from three case studies from the Laurentian Great Lakes. These case studies describe applications of decision analysis for decisions within an agency (management of double-crested cormorant), among agencies (response to invasive grass carp), and among agencies and stakeholders (sustainable fisheries harvest management). These case studies provide insight into the ways that decision analysis can be useful for conservation and management of natural resources, but we also highlight future needs for decision making for these resources. In particular, applications of decision analysis for conservation and management would benefit from enhanced integration of both ecological and social science, inclusion of a broader base of stakeholders and rightsholders, and better educational opportunities surrounding decision analysis for undergraduates and graduate students of natural resources management programs. Specific lessons from our experiences include the importance of establishing trust and transparency early through the formation of a working group, collaboratively defining objectives and evaluating uncertainties, risks, and tradeoffs, and implementing participatory modeling processes with an independent facilitator with appropriate quantitative skills.

Decision Analysis↗
USGS2004

Global change impacts on mangrove ecosystems

Mangroves are tropical/subtropical communities of primarily tree species that grow in the intertidal zone. These tidal forests are important coastal ecosystems that are valued for a variety of ecological and societal goods and services. Major local threats to mangrove ecosystems worldwide include clearcutting and trimming of forests for urban, agricultural, or industrial expansion; hydrological alterations; toxic chemical spills; and eutrophication. In many countries with mangroves, much of the human population resides in the coastal zone, and their activities often negatively impact the integrity of mangrove forests. In addition, eutrophication, which is the process whereby nutrients build up to higher than normal levels in a natural system, is possibly one of the most serious threats to mangroves and associated ecosystems such as coral reefs. Scientists with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) at the National Wetlands Research Center are working to more fully understand global impacts on these significant ecosystems. Changes in climate and other factors may also affect mangroves, but in complex ways. Global warming may promote expansion of mangrove forests to higher latitudes and accelerate sea-level rise through melting of polar ice or steric expansion of oceans. Changes in sea level would alter flooding patterns and the structure and areal extent of mangroves. Climate change may also alter rainfall patterns, which would in turn change local salinity regimes and competitive interactions of mangroves with other wetland species. Increases in frequency or intensity of tropical storms and hurricanes in combination with sea-level rise may alter erosion and sedimentation rates in mangrove forests. Another global change factor that may directly affect mangrove growth is increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), caused by burning of fossil fuels and other factors. Elevated CO 2 concentration may increase mangrove growth by stimulating photosynthesis or improving water use efficiency, but the consequences of this growth enhancement for the ecosystem are unknown.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2000

Interim report on the scientific investigations in the Animas River watershed, Colorado to facilitate remediation decisions by the U.S. Bureau of Land Management and the U.S. Forest Service, March 29, 2000 meeting, Denver, Colo.

INTRODUCTION The joint U.S. Department of the Interior and U.S. Department of Agriculture Abandoned Mine Lands Initiative (AMLI) was developed as a collaborative effort between the Federal land management agencies (FLMA, that is the U.S. Bureau of Land Management and the U.S. Forest Service) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in 1996. The stated goal of the AML Initiative was to develop a strategy for gathering and communicating the scientific information needed to develop effective and cost-efficient remediation of abandoned mines within the framework of a watershed. Four primary objectives of the AMLI are to: 1. Provide the scientific information needed (in the short-term) by the FLMAs to make decisions related to the design and implementation of cleanup actions, 2. Develop a multi-disciplined, multi-division approach that integrates geologic, hydrologic, geochemical and ecological information into a knowledge base for sound decision making, 3. Transfer technologies developed within the scientific programs of the USGS to the field and demonstrate their suitability to solve real, practical problems, and 4. Establish working relationships among involved members of land management and regulatory agencies within the framework of a watershed approach to the cleanup of abandoned mines. Long-term process-based research, including development of analytical tools, is recognized as being critical to the long-term success in remediating watersheds impacted by historical mining activities (AML 5-year plan, http://amli.usgs.gov/amli). In a meeting of Federal agencies (U.S. Bureau of Land Management [BLM], U.S. Bureau of Reclamation [BOR], U.S. National Park Service [NPS], U.S. Forest Service [USFS], the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency [EPA], the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service [F&WS]), and State agencies (Colorado Division of Public Health and Environment, Colorado Division of Mines and Geology), several watersheds were examined within the state whose water quality was presumed to be impacted by historical mining activities. The Animas River watershed (fig. 1) was selected by the State and Federal agencies as one of two watersheds in the U.S. to be studied in detail by the USGS in the AML Initiative. Beginning in October 1997, each of the four Divisions of the USGS (Water Resources, Geologic, Biological Resources, and National Mapping) initiated a collaborative integrated science study of the watershed. Funds were provided from USGS base funding to each of the four Divisions in response to the priorities set by Congressional action and within the flexibility provided by the budgetary framework funding individual research programs. The AML Initiative provides for a five-year focused scientific effort in the two watersheds with final synthesis of the scientific results from each to be published in 2001. Publications are released on the AML web site on a regular basis (http://amli.usgs.gov/amli). On March 29, 2000, the USGS hosted a meeting for the BLM and USFS to discuss remediation options that were under consideration for the summer of 2000. The purpose of this report is to provide an overview of the scientific rational provided by the USGS to meet objective one above, and to summarize our preliminary interpretations of our data. Additional information from sites on private lands have been collected by the State of Colorado, EPA, and the ARSG. Unfortunately, these data have not been fully supplied to the USGS so our conclusions are based only upon our data. These interpretations provide science-based constraints on possible remediation options to be considered by the FLMA, the State, and local property owners in the Animas River watershed. The report is presented in outline format to facilitate discussion of remediation options at the March 29, 2000 meeting. Not all historical mining sites within the watershed are on public lands. This should not be construed to be a final report of the USGS

Denver↗
USGS2009

Comparative Hydrology, Water Quality, and Ecology of Selected Natural and Augmented Freshwater Wetlands in West-Central Florida

Comparing altered wetlands to natural wetlands in the same region improves the ability to interpret the gradual and cumulative effects of human development on freshwater wetlands. Hydrologic differences require explicit attention because they affect nearly all wetland functions and are an overriding influence on other comparisons involving wetland water quality and ecology. This study adopts several new approaches to quantify wetland hydrologic characteristics and then describes and compares the hydrology, water quality, and ecology of 10 isolated freshwater marsh and cypress wetlands in the mantled karst landscape of central Florida. Four of the wetlands are natural, and the other six have water levels indirectly lowered by ground-water withdrawals on municipally owned well fields. For several decades, the water levels in four of these altered wetlands have been raised by adding ground water in a mitigation process called augmentation. The two wetlands left unaugmented were impaired because their water levels were lowered. Multifaceted comparisons between the altered and natural wetlands are used to examine differences between marshes and cypress wetlands and to describe the effects of augmentation practices on the wetland ecosystems. In the karstic geologic setting, both natural and altered wetlands predominantly lost water to the surficial aquifer. Water leaking out of the wetlands created water-table mounds below the wetlands. The smallest mounds radiated only slightly beyond the vegetated area of the wetlands. The largest and steepest mounds occurred below two of the augmented wetlands. There, rapid leakage rates regenerated a largely absent surficial aquifer and mounds encompassed areas 7-8 times as large as the wetlands. Wetland leakage rates, estimated using a daily water-budget analysis applied over multiple years and normalized as inches per day, varied thirtyfold from the slowest leaking natural wetland to the fastest leaking augmented wetland. Leakage rates increased as the size of the flooded area decreased and as the downward head difference between the wetland and the underlying Upper Floridan aquifer increased. Allowing one of the augmented wetlands to dry up for about 2.5 months in the spring of 2004, and then refilling it, generated a net savings of augmentation water despite the amount of water required to recreate the water-table mound beneath the wetland. Runoff from the surrounding uplands was an important component of the water budget in all of the unaugmented wetlands and two of the augmented wetlands. At a minimum, runoff contributed from half (45 percent) to twice (182 percent) as much water as direct rainfall at individual wetlands. Wetland flooded areas, derived using wetland water levels and bathymetric data and presented as a percentage of total wetland area, were used to compare and contrast hydrologic conditions among the 10 wetlands. The percentages of the natural wetland areas that flooded during the study were comparable, despite differences in the sizes of the wetlands. The percent flooded area in each wetland was calculated daily over the study period and monthly for up to 16 years using historical water-level data. Historical flooding in the natural wetlands spanned a greater range in area and had more pronounced seasonality than historical flooding at either the impaired or augmented wetlands. Flooding in the impaired and natural wetlands was similar, however, during 2 years of the study with substantially reduced well-field pumping and above average rainfall. Comparisons indicated several hydrologic differences between the marsh and cypress wetlands in this study. The natural and impaired marshes leaked at about half the rate of the natural and impaired cypress wetlands, and the marshes collectively were underlain by geologic material with lower vertical leakance values than the cypress wetlands. The natural marshes had higher evaporation rates compared to cypress

Professional Paper↗
USGS2018

Cracking the code of biodiversity responses to past climate change

How individual species and entire ecosystems will respond to future climate change are among the most pressing questions facing ecologists. Past biodiversity dynamics recorded in the paleoecological archives show a broad array of responses, yet significant knowledge gaps remain. In particular, the relative roles of evolutionary adaptation, phenotypic plasticity, and dispersal in promoting survival during times of climate change have yet to be clarified. Investigating the paleo-archives offers great opportunities to understand biodiversity responses to future climate change. In this review we discuss the mechanisms by which biodiversity responds to environmental change, and identify gaps of knowledge on the role of range shifts and tolerance. We also outline approaches at the intersection of paleoecology, genomics, experiments, and predictive models that will elucidate the processes by which species have survived past climatic changes and enhance predictions of future changes in biological diversity.

Trends in Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS1998

Assessing simulated ecosystem processes for climate variability research at Glacier National Park, USA

Glacier National Park served as a test site for ecosystem analyses that involved a suite of integrated models embedded within a geographic information system. The goal of the exercise was to provide managers with maps that could illustrate probable shifts in vegetation, net primary production (NPP), and hydrologic responses associated with two selected climatic scenarios. The climatic scenarios were (a) a recent 12-yr record of weather data, and (b) a reconstituted set that sequentially introduced in repeated 3-yr intervals wetter–cooler, drier–warmer, and typical conditions. To extrapolate the implications of changes in ecosystem processes and resulting growth and distribution of vegetation and snowpack, the model incorporated geographic data. With underlying digital elevation maps, soil depth and texture, extrapolated climate, and current information on vegetation types and satellite-derived estimates of leaf area indices, simulations were extended to envision how the park might look after 120 yr. The predictions of change included underlying processes affecting the availability of water and nitrogen. Considerable field data were acquired to compare with model predictions under current climatic conditions. In general, the integrated landscape models of ecosystem processes had good agreement with measured NPP, snowpack, and streamflow, but the exercise revealed the difficulty and necessity of averaging point measurements across landscapes to achieve comparable results with modeled values. Under the extremely variable climate scenario significant changes in vegetation composition and growth as well as hydrologic responses were predicted across the park. In particular, a general rise in both the upper and lower limits of treeline was predicted. These shifts would probably occur along with a variety of disturbances (fire, insect, and disease outbreaks) as predictions of physiological stress (water, nutrients, light) altered competitive relations and hydrologic responses. The use of integrated landscape models applied in this exercise should provide managers with insights into the underlying processes important in maintaining community structure, and at the same time, locate where changes on the landscape are most likely to occur.

Montana↗
USGS1985

Bottomland vegetation distribution along Passage Creek, Virginia, in relation to fluvial landforms

Persistent distribution patterns of woody vegetation within the bottomland forest of Passage Creek, Virginia, were related to fluvial landforms, channel geometry, streamflow characteristics, and sediment—size characteristics. Vegetation patterns were determined from species presence as observed in transects and traverses on landforms developed along the stream. Distinct species distributional patterns were found on four common fluvial geomorphic landforms: depositional bar, active—channel shelf, floodplain, and terrace. Independent hydrologic characteristics (flow duration and flood frequency) were determined for each of the landforms. Vegetation data were analyzed by binary discriminant analysis, principal components analysis, and detrended correspondence analysis. Results and related field observations suggest that certain species are significantly associated with specific fluvial landforms. Vegetation patterns appear to develop more as a result of hydrologic processes associated with each fluvial landform rather than from sediment—size characteristics. Flood disturbance may be an important factor in maintaining the vegetation patterns, which may therefore be used as indicators for particular hydrogeomorphic site conditions.

Ecology↗
USGS2017

Conceptual model for invasive bivalve control on wetland productivity

Tidal wetlands were the historically dominant features of many coastal regions around the world, including the San Francisco Estuary (Callaway et al. 2011; Whipple et al. 2012). These mosaics of varied interconnected habitats (Mitsch and Gosselink 1993) provide a host of ecosystem services, including biodiversity maintenance, fish and wildlife habitat, water quality improvement, flood abatement, and carbon sequestration (Rabenhorst 1995; Costanza et al. 1997; Bottom et al. 2005; Zedler and Kercher 2005; Barbier et al. 2010). They also support human activities and values such as recreation and aesthetic appreciation (Barbier et al. 2010; Milligan and Kraus-Polk 2016). Despite their critical functions, many wetland landscapes have been destroyed or irreparably altered, either incidentally or intentionally, by human activities (Holland et al. 2004; Zedler and Kercher 2005; Callaway et al. 2011; Cloern and Jassby 2012; Whipple et al. 2012; Schile et al. 2014). San Francisco Estuary (SFE) (see Figure 1) tidal wetlands were largely converted to other land uses in the late 1800s and early 1900s, with the extent of loss and new use varying by region. Wetland losses in the North, Central, and South San Francisco bays and Suisun Bay ranged from 70 percent to 93 percent to accommodate agricultural uses, salt production, managed waterfowl habitat, and urban development (Callaway et al. 2011). Landscape transformation within the most inland portion of the SFE, the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (Delta), was even more dramatic. Overall, today’s Delta contains 97 percent less freshwater tidal wetland than its historical state and nearly double the open water area (Whipple et al. 2012). The majority of the modern Delta consists of agricultural tracts protected from tidal waters by human-made dikes or levees, which are commonly armored with riprap. The de-watered, rich peat soils of these created islands have supported abundant agricultural production, but have oxidized, compacted, and blown away in the process, causing significant subsidence (Deverel and Leighton 2010). Occasional levee failures turn islands into lakes; a few large shallow lakes remain after accidental levee breaches were not repaired (Whipple et al. 2012).

California↗
USGS2022

Genetic diversity and connectivity of chemosynthetic cold seep mussels from the U.S. Atlantic margin

Background Deep-sea mussels in the subfamily Bathymodiolinae have unique adaptations to colonize hydrothermal-vent and cold-seep environments throughout the world ocean. These invertebrates function as important ecosystem engineers, creating heterogeneous habitat and promoting biodiversity in the deep sea. Despite their ecological significance, efforts to assess the diversity and connectivity of this group are extremely limited. Here, we present the first genomic-scale diversity assessments of the recently discovered bathymodioline cold-seep communities along the U.S. Atlantic margin, dominated by Gigantidas childressi and Bathymodiolus heckerae . Results A Restriction-site Associated DNA Sequencing (RADSeq) approach was used on 177 bathymodiolines to examine genetic diversity and population structure within and between seep sites. Assessments of genetic differentiation using single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data revealed high gene flow among sites, with the shallower and more northern sites serving as source populations for deeper occurring G. childressi . No evidence was found for genetic diversification across depth in G. childressi , likely due to their high dispersal capabilities. Kinship analyses indicated a high degree of relatedness among individuals, and at least 10–20% of local recruits within a particular site. We also discovered candidate adaptive loci in G. childressi and B. heckerae that suggest differences in developmental processes and depth-related and metabolic adaptations to chemosynthetic environments. Conclusions These results highlight putative source communities for an important ecosystem engineer in the deep sea that may be considered in future conservation efforts. Our results also provide clues into species-specific adaptations that enable survival and potential speciation within chemosynthetic ecosystems.

Atlantic Ocean, Baltimore Canyon Seep, Blake Ridge↗
USGS2016

Organizing environmental flow frameworks to meet hydropower mitigation needs

The global recognition of the importance of natural flow regimes to sustain the ecological integrity of river systems has led to increased societal pressure on the hydropower industry to change plant operations to improve downstream aquatic ecosystems. However, a complete reinstatement of natural flow regimes is often unrealistic when balancing water needs for ecosystems, energy production, and other human uses. Thus, stakeholders must identify a prioritized subset of flow prescriptions that meet ecological objectives in light of realistic constraints. Yet, isolating aspects of flow regimes to restore downstream of hydropower facilities is among the greatest challenges of environmental flow science due, in part, to the sheer volume of available environmental flow tools in conjunction with complex negotiation-based regulatory procedures. Herein, we propose an organizational framework that structures information and existing flow paradigms into a staged process that assists stakeholders in implementing environmental flows for hydropower facilities. The framework identifies areas where regulations fall short of the needed scientific process, and provide suggestions for stakeholders to ameliorate those situations through advanced preparation. We highlight the strengths of existing flow paradigms in their application to hydropower settings and suggest when and where tools are most applicable. Our suggested framework increases the effectiveness and efficiency of the e-flow implementation process by rapidly establishing a knowledge base and decreasing uncertainty so more time can be devoted to filling knowledge gaps. Lastly, the framework provides the structure for a coordinated research agenda to further the science of environmental flows related to hydropower environments.

Environmental Management↗
USGS2017

Fish assemblages

Methods to sample fishes in stream ecosystems and to analyze the raw data, focusing primarily on assemblage-level (all fish species combined) analyses, are presented in this chapter. We begin with guidance on sample site selection, permitting for fish collection, and information-gathering steps to be completed prior to conducting fieldwork. Basic sampling methods (visual surveying, electrofishing, and seining) are presented with specific instructions for estimating population sizes via visual, capture-recapture, and depletion surveys, in addition to new guidance on environmental DNA (eDNA) methods. Steps to process fish specimens in the field including the use of anesthesia and preservation of whole specimens or tissue samples (for genetic or stable isotope analysis) are also presented. Data analysis methods include characterization of size-structure within populations, estimation of species richness and diversity, and application of fish functional traits. We conclude with three advanced topics in assemblage-level analysis: multidimensional scaling (MDS), ecological networks, and loop analysis.

Book chapter↗
USGS2025

Salmonid sensory system development is affected by climate change driven temperature increases

Increases in water temperature due to global climate change are known to alter the course and timing of fish development. The mechanosensory lateral line (LL) system mediates flow-sensing behaviors vital for survival in fishes, but the effects of increased water temperatures resulting from climate change on its development have not been examined. Here LL development was documented in a cold-water salmonid (brook trout, Salvelinus fontinalis ) reared at the thermograph of a long-term study stream (ambient) and two higher temperatures (+ 2 and + 4 °C) that reflect projected increases within their native range. At these two higher temperatures, fish reach crucial early life history transitions earlier (e.g., hatch, “swim-up” from gravel nests into the water column) and are larger in size through the parr (juvenile) stage. Early forming canal neuromast receptor organs are larger, and the process of canal morphogenesis is also accelerated suggesting potential consequences for neuromast function and presumably for LL-mediated behaviors. A potential mismatch between the timing of transitions in early life history stages, the ability to carry out LL-mediated behaviors (e.g., prey detection), and the timing of the seasonal emergence of their preferred prey, could have serious implications for cold-water salmonid ecology and survival.

Scientific Reports↗
USGS2011

Development of a high-resolution binational vegetation map of the Santa Cruz River riparian corridor and surrounding watershed, southern Arizona and northern Sonora, Mexico

This report summarizes the development of a binational vegetation map developed for the Santa Cruz Watershed, which straddles the southern border of Arizona and the northern border of Sonora, Mexico. The map was created as an environmental input to the Santa Cruz Watershed Ecosystem Portfolio Model (SCWEPM) that is being created by the U.S. Geological Survey for the watershed. The SCWEPM is a map-based multicriteria evaluation tool that allows stakeholders to explore tradeoffs between valued ecosystem services at multiple scales within a participatory decision-making process. Maps related to vegetation type and are needed for use in modeling wildlife habitat and other ecosystem services. Although detailed vegetation maps existed for the U.S. side of the border, there was a lack of consistent data for the Santa Cruz Watershed in Mexico. We produced a binational vegetation classification of the Santa Cruz River riparian habitat and watershed vegetation based on NatureServe Terrestrial Ecological Systems (TES) units using Classification And Regression Tree (CART) modeling. Environmental layers used as predictor data were derived from a seasonal set of Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) images (spring, summer, and fall) and from a 30-meter digital-elevation-model (DEM) grid. Because both sources of environmental data are seamless across the international border, they are particularly suited to this binational modeling effort. Training data were compiled from existing field data for the riparian corridor and data collected by the NM-GAP (New Mexico Gap Analysis Project) team for the original Southwest Regional Gap Analysis Project (SWReGAP) modeling effort. Additional training data were collected from core areas of the SWReGAP classification itself, allowing the extrapolation of the SWReGAP mapping into the Mexican portion of the watershed without collecting additional training data.

Arizona↗
USGS2023

Viewing river corridors through the lens of critical zone science

River corridors integrate the active channels, geomorphic floodplain and riparian areas, and hyporheic zone while receiving inputs from the uplands and groundwater and exchanging mass and energy with the atmosphere. Here, we trace the development of the contemporary understanding of river corridors from the perspectives of geomorphology, hydrology, ecology, and biogeochemistry. We then summarize contemporary models of the river corridor along multiple axes including dimensions of space and time, disturbance regimes, connectivity, hydrochemical exchange flows, and legacy effects of humans. We explore how river corridor science can be advanced with a critical zone framework by moving beyond a primary focus on discharge-based controls toward multi-factor models that identify dominant processes and thresholds that make predictions that serve society. We then identify opportunities to investigate relationships between large-scale spatial gradients and local-scale processes, embrace that riverine processes are temporally variable and interacting, acknowledge that river corridor processes and services do not respect disciplinary boundaries and increasingly need integrated multidisciplinary investigations, and explicitly integrate humans and their management actions as part of the river corridor. We intend our review to stimulate cross-disciplinary research while recognizing that river corridors occupy a unique position on the Earth's surface.

Frontiers in Water↗
USGS2024

Classification of lakebed geologic substrate in autonomously collected benthic imagery using machine learning

Mapping benthic habitats with bathymetric, acoustic, and spectral data requires georeferenced ground-truth information about habitat types and characteristics. New technologies like autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) collect tens of thousands of images per mission making image-based ground truthing particularly attractive. Two types of machine learning (ML) models, random forest (RF) and deep neural network (DNN), were tested to determine whether ML models could serve as an accurate substitute for manual classification of AUV images for substrate type interpretation. RF models were trained to predict substrate class as a function of texture, edge, and intensity metrics (i.e., features) calculated for each image. Models were tested using a manually classified image dataset with 9-, 6-, and 2-class schemes based on the Coastal and Marine Ecological Classification Standard (CMECS). Results suggest that both RF and DNN models achieve comparable accuracies, with the 9-class models being least accurate (~73–78%) and the 2-class models being the most accurate (~95–96%). However, the DNN models were more efficient to train and apply because they did not require feature estimation before training or classification. Integrating ML models into benthic habitat mapping process can improve our ability to efficiently and accurately ground-truth large areas of benthic habitat using AUV or similar images.

Michigan, Wisconsin↗
USGS2002

Analysis and Management of Animal Populations: Modeling, Estimation and Decision Making

This book deals with the processes involved in making informed decisions about the management of animal populations. It covers the modeling of population responses to management actions, the estimation of quantities needed in the modeling effort, and the application of these estimates and models to the development of sound management decisions. The book synthesizes and integrates in a single volume the methods associated with these themes, as they apply to ecological assessment and conservation of animal populations. KEY FEATURES * Integrates population modeling, parameter estimation and * decision-theoretic approaches to management in a single, cohesive framework * Provides authoritative, state-of-the-art descriptions of quantitative * approaches to modeling, estimation and decision-making * Emphasizes the role of mathematical modeling in the conduct of science * and management * Utilizes a unifying biological context, consistent mathematical notation, * and numerous biological examples

Book↗
USGS2008

Change in the forested and developed landscape of the Lake Tahoe basin, California and Nevada, USA, 1940-2002

The current ecological state of the Lake Tahoe basin has been shaped by significant landscape-altering human activity and management practices since the mid-1850s; first through widespread timber harvesting from the 1850s to 1920s followed by urban development from the 1950s to the present. Consequences of landscape change, both from development and forest management practices including fire suppression, have prompted rising levels of concern for the ecological integrity of the region. The impacts from these activities include decreased water quality, degraded biotic communities, and increased fire hazard. To establish an understanding of the Lake Tahoe basin's landscape change in the context of forest management and development we mapped, quantified, and described the spatial and temporal distribution and variability of historical changes in land use and land cover in the southern Lake Tahoe basin (279 km2) from 1940 to 2002. Our assessment relied on post-classification change detection of multi-temporal land-use/cover and impervious-surface-area data that were derived through manual interpretation, image processing, and GIS data integration for four dates of imagery: 1940, 1969, 1987, and 2002. The most significant land conversion during the 62-year study period was an increase in developed lands with a corresponding decrease in forests, wetlands, and shrublands. Forest stand densities increased throughout the 62-year study period, and modern thinning efforts resulted in localized stand density decreases in the latter part of the study period. Additionally forests were gained from succession, and towards the end of the study period extensive tree mortality occurred. The highest rates of change occurred between 1940 and 1969, corresponding with dramatic development, then rates declined through 2002 for all observed landscape changes except forest density decrease and tree mortality. Causes of landscape change included regional population growth, tourism demands, timber harvest for local use, fire suppression, bark beetle attack, and fuels reduction activities. Results from this study offer land managers within the Lake Tahoe basin and in similar regions a basis for making better informed land-use and management decisions to potentially minimize detrimental ecological impacts of landscape change. The perspective to be gained is based on quantitative retrospection of the effects of human-driven changes and the impacts of management action or inaction to the forested landscape. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Forest Ecology and Management↗
USGS2024

Projecting mangrove forest resilience to sea-level rise on a Pacific Island: Species dynamics and ecological thresholds

Mangroves can increase their elevation relative to tidal flooding through biogeomorphic feedbacks but can submerge if rates of sea-level rise are too great. There is an urgent need to understand the vulnerability of mangroves to sea-level rise so local communities and resource managers can implement and prioritize actions. The need is especially pressing for small islands, which have been identified as an area of concern by the IPCC. We developed a generalizable modeling framework for tidal wetlands (WARMER-3) that accounts for species interactions and the belowground processes that dictate soil elevation building relative to sea levels. The model was calibrated with extensive field datasets, including accretion rates derived from 29 soil cores, over 300 forest inventory plots, water level, and elevation. The model included five mangrove tree species and was applied across seven regions around the Pacific Island of Pohnpei, Federated States of Micronesia, where mangrove forest is a critical ecosystem that supports subsistence living for local communities. We explored mangrove resilience and carbon accumulation under six sea-level rise scenarios. We also conducted an analysis to determine the sea-level rise rate threshold above which mangroves would be lost. The results suggest that Pohnpei mangroves can build their elevations relative to low and moderate rates of sea-level rise to prevent submergence, with limited loss of mangrove area through 2150. Under higher sea-level rise rates, however, forest elevation decreased substantially relative to mean sea level and there was extensive loss of mangrove area by that year. Regarding mangrove community composition, for all sea-level rise scenarios, the model predicted a change to increasing relative abundance of flood tolerant species and decreasing relative abundance of high-elevation species, which started to being realized by 2100. Variation in sediment supply, water levels, and elevation capital led to differential vulnerability around the island. We identified a threshold for Pohnpei mangroves where if local sea-level rise rates exceed 7.8 ± 2.2 mm/year they are projected to eventually submerge and be lost. Our modeling framework is novel by addressing both species interactions and critical belowground processes to better understand potential tidal ecosystem responses to sea-level rise.

Pohnpei↗