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At least 1,621 records · Page 90Linked to original sources

USGS2018

Projected 21st century coastal flooding in the Southern California Bight. Part 1: Development of the third generation CoSMoS model

Due to the effects of climate change over the course of the next century, the combination of rising sea levels, severe storms, and coastal change will threaten the sustainability of coastal communities, development, and ecosystems as we know them today. To clearly identify coastal vulnerabilities and develop appropriate adaptation strategies due to projected increased levels of coastal flooding and erosion, coastal managers need local-scale hazards projections using the best available climate and coastal science. In collaboration with leading scientists world-wide, the USGS designed the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) to assess the coastal impacts of climate change for the California coast, including the combination of sea-level rise, storms, and coastal change. In this project, we directly address the needs of coastal resource managers in Southern California by integrating a vast range of global climate change projections in a thorough and comprehensive numerical modeling framework. In Part 1 of a two-part submission on CoSMoS, methods and the latest improvements are discussed, and an example of hazard projections is presented.

Journal of Marine Science and Engineering↗

USGS2020

Characterizing spatiotemporal patterns of crop phenology across North America during 2000–2016 using satellite imagery and agricultural survey data

Crop phenology represents an integrative indicator of climate change and plays a vital role in terrestrial carbon dynamics and sustainable agricultural development. However, spatiotemporal variations of crop phenology remain unclear at large scales. This knowledge gap has hindered our ability to realistically quantify the biogeochemical dynamics in agroecosystems, predict future climate, and make informed decisions for climate change mitigation and adaptation. In this study, we improved an EVI-curve-based approach and used it to detect spatiotemporal patterns in cropping intensity and five major phenological stages over North America during 2000–2016 using vegetation index in combination with agricultural survey data and other ancillary maps. Our predicted crop phenological stages showed strong linear relationships with the survey-based datasets, with R 2 , RMSEs, and MAEs in the ranges of 0.35 –0.99, three to ten days, and two to eight days, respectively. During the study period, the planting dates were advanced by 0.60 days/year ( p < 0.01), and harvesting dates were delayed by 0.78 days/year ( p < 0.01) over North America. A minimum temperature increase by 1 °C caused a 4.26-day planting advance (r = −0.50, p < 0. 01) or a 0.66-day harvest delay (r = 0.10, p < 0.01). While, a higher maximum temperature resulted in a planting advance by 4.48 days/°C (r = −0.62, p < 0.01) or a harvest advance by 2.22 days/°C (r = −0.40, p < 0.01). Our analysis illustrated evident spatiotemporal variations in crop phenology in response to climate change and management practices. The derived crop phenological datasets and cropping intensity maps can be used in regional climate assessments and in developing adaptation strategies.

ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing↗

USGS2013

Impact of Late Holocene climate variability and anthropogenic activities on Biscayne Bay (Florida, U.S.A.): Evidence from diatoms

Shallow marine ecosystems are experiencing significant environmental alterations as a result of changing climate and increasing human activities along coasts. Intensive urbanization of the southeast Florida coast and intensification of climate change over the last few centuries changed the character of coastal ecosystems in the semi-enclosed Biscayne Bay, Florida. In order to develop management policies for the Bay, it is vital to obtain reliable scientific evidence of past ecological conditions. The long-term records of subfossil diatoms obtained from No Name Bank and Featherbed Bank in the Central Biscayne Bay, and from the Card Sound Bank in the neighboring Card Sound, were used to study the magnitude of the environmental change caused by climate variability and water management over the last ~ 600 yr. Analyses of these records revealed that the major shifts in the diatom assemblage structures at No Name Bank occurred in 1956, at Featherbed Bank in 1966, and at Card Sound Bank in 1957. Smaller magnitude shifts were also recorded at Featherbed Bank in 1893, 1942, 1974 and 1983. Most of these changes coincided with severe drought periods that developed during the cold phases of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), or when AMO was in warm phase and PDO was in the cold phase. Only the 1983 change coincided with an unusually wet period that developed during the warm phases of ENSO and PDO. Quantitative reconstructions of salinity using the weighted averaging partial least squares (WA-PLS) diatom-based salinity model revealed a gradual increase in salinity at the three coring locations over the last ~ 600 yr, which was primarily caused by continuously rising sea level and in the last several decades also by the reduction of the amount of freshwater inflow from the mainland. Concentration of sediment total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP) and total organic carbon (TOC) increased in the second half of the 20th century, which coincided with the construction of canals, landfills, marinas and water treatment plants along the western margin of Biscayne Bay. Increased magnitude and rate of the diatom assemblage restructuring in the mid- and late-1900s, suggest that large environmental changes are occurring more rapidly now than in the past.

Florida↗

USGS2018

A review of literature for gray and harbor seals

Climate change is impacting marine species, causing shifts in occurrence, distribution, and phenology, which can ultimately effect ecosystem structure and functioning (Parmesan & Yohe 2003; Burrows et al. 2011). The study of the timing of recurring biological events throughout an organism’s life is known as phenology (Parmesan & Yohe 2003). The way organisms respond to climate change through altered timing offers insight into their sensitivity and adaptability (Parmesan & Yohe 2003). To gain an understanding of pinniped vulnerability to climate change, specifically through changes in phenology, a comprehensive literature search was conducted using several online databases (e.g., Web of Science, Google Scholar and PubMed). Combinations of relevant terms were searched in order to find studies pertaining to the life history of two regionally important pinniped species: the gray seal (Halichoerus grypus) and the harbor seal (Phoca vitulina). Although special attention was given to studies conducted in the Northwestern Atlantic region, publications giving information on populations in other parts of the world provided important proxy information. Keyword searches were conducted in Web of Science and Google Scholar and represent the published literature through 2017. The remainder of the publications found were cited in the literature returned from the two searches. This document provides an annotated bibliography organized by species (gray and harbor seals) and region, with topical sections for important attributes (e.g. foraging). The focus of this search was for the Gulf of Maine region, but other relevant information yielded by the literature search is presented in order of approximate distance from the focal area.

Report↗

USGS2025

Cytotype and local adaptation drive phenotypic variation in two subspecies of big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata)

Big sagebrush ( Artemisia tridentata ) is a widespread and locally dominant shrub throughout many ecosystems in western North America. A. tridentata ssps. tridentata and wyomingensis are two subspecies whose populations occupy the warm-arid regions of the species range and whose trailing edge is threatened by climate change. Previous studies have presented conflicting results in relation to the genetic control of physiological variation in A. tridentata . Understanding how different genetic factors contribute to physiological variation can provide insight into how these two subspecies may respond to future climate change. To explore possible variation among and within two subspecies of A. tridentata , we measured physiological and morphological traits in A . t . tridentata and A. t. wyomingensis during mid-summer (July), seven years after establishment in a common garden. Contributions to trait variation were quantified for both genetic (subspecies and cytotype) and environmental (climate-of-origin) factors. Measurements revealed an unequal contribution to phenotypic variation by subspecies, cytotype, and climate-of-origin. Ploidy and climate-of-origin were more important than subspecies in driving phenotypic variation in A. tridentata. These findings suggest that A. tridentata has a highly plastic drought response, or that culling (mortality over time due to environmental factors) in the common garden over seven years has led to a lack of genetic diversity within the garden. Understanding what factors drive phenotypic expression in big sagebrush can provide better insight into how climate change may affect migration and extirpation and may aid in the effectiveness of restoration efforts.

Idaho↗

USGS2020

Drought reshuffles plant phenology and reduces the foraging benefit of green-wave surfing for a migratory ungulate

To increase resource gain, many herbivores pace their migration with the flush of nutritious plant green-up that progresses across the landscape (termed “green-wave surfing”). Despite concerns about the effects of climate change on migratory species and the critical role of plant phenology in mediating the ability of ungulates to surf, little is known about how drought shapes the green wave and influences the foraging benefits of migration. With a 19 year dataset on drought and plant phenology across 99 unique migratory routes of mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ) in western Wyoming, United States, we show that drought shortened the duration of spring green-up by approximately twofold (2.5 weeks) and resulted in less sequential green-up along migratory routes. We investigated the possibility that some routes were buffered from the effects of drought (i.e., routes that maintained long green-up duration irrespective of drought intensity). We found no evidence of drought-buffered routes. Instead, routes with the longest green-up in non-drought years also were the most affected by drought. Despite phenological changes along the migratory route, mule deer closely followed drought-altered green waves during migration. Migrating deer did not experience a trophic mismatch with the green wave during drought. Instead, the shorter window of green-up caused by drought reduced the opportunity to accumulate forage resources during rapid spring migrations. Our work highlights the synchronization of phenological events as an important mechanism by which climate change can negatively affect migratory species by reducing the temporal availability of key food resources. For migratory herbivores, climate change poses a new and growing threat by altering resource phenology and diminishing the foraging benefit of migration.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2023

Aging, climate, and invasions threaten reservoirs in the Mississippi basin

Reservoirs in the Mississippi River basin are facing three momentous threats. The first two, aging and climate change, are relatively slow moving and their signal can be hard to discern given their stretched temporal scales. The third, species invasions, is faster paced and discernable within shorter temporal scales and restricted spatial scales. Aging and climate directly affect reservoir environments and indirectly affect their biotic communities. Climate change is expected to interact with aging to speed up and, in some instances, slow down aging. Conversely, invasions primarily imperil biotic communities but can also impact environmental elements. This triple jeopardy is expected to transform reservoir environs and their biotic assemblages in various, often uncertain, ways. I take a broad view of these threats within the Mississippi River basin. A basin-scale perspective, in contrast to a single reservoir or regional scale, may enhance awareness of reservoirs at a larger level and produce understanding less evident at local levels, hence possibly offering a wider range of choices for confronting threats. My aim is to (1) provide a synopsis of the assemblage of reservoirs and their attributes over the Mississippi River basin, (2) describe the issues related to aging, climate change, and invasions, and (3) consider a conservation framework for confronting these pressures. Given the overlapping temporal, spatial, and ecological effects of these threats, it is essential to address their effects simultaneously.

Mississippi River basin↗

USGS2024

Thermal traits of anurans database for the southeastern United States (TRAD): A database of thermal trait values for 40 anuran species

Thermal traits, or how an animal responds to changing temperatures, impacts species persistence and thus biodiversity. Trait databases, as repositories of consolidated, measured organismal attributes, allow researchers to link study species with specific trait values, enabling comparisons within and among species. Trait databases also help lay the groundwork to build mechanistic linkages between organisms and the environment. However, missing or hidden physiological trait data preclude building mechanistic estimates of climate change vulnerability for many species. Thus, physiologically focused trait databases present an opportunity to consolidate data and enable species-specific or multispecies, mechanistic evaluations of climate change vulnerability. Here, we present TRAD: thermal traits of anurans database for the southeastern United States, a database of thermal trait values related to physiological thermoregulation (critical thermal minima and maxima, preferred temperature), behavioral thermoregulation (activity period, retreat emergence temperature, basking temperature, minimum and maximum foraging temperatures), and body mass for 37 anuran species found within the southeastern United States. In total, TRAD contains 858 reported trait values for 37 of 40 species found in the region from 267 peer-reviewed papers, dissertations, or theses and is easily linked with trait data available in ATraiU, an ecological trait database for anurans in the United States. TRAD contains trait values for multiple life stages and a summarization of interspecific adult trait values. Availability of trait data varied widely among traits and species. Estimates of mass were the most common trait values reported, with values available for 32 species. Behavioral trait values comprised 23% of our database, with activity period available for 34 species. We found the most trait values for Cope's Gray Treefrog ( Dryophytes chrysoscelis ), with at least one trait value for eight traits in the database. Conversely, species in the genus Pseudacris generally had the fewest trait values available. Species with the largest geographic range sizes also had the greatest coverage of data across traits (rho 5 0.75, P , 0.001). TRAD can aid studies of anuran response to changing temperatures, physiological niche space and limitations, and potential drivers of anuran geographic range limits, influencing our understanding of other ecological and evolutionary patterns and processes and enabling multispecies comparisons of potential risk and resilience in the face of climate change.

southeastern United States↗

USGS2000

Ad hoc committee on global climate issues: Annual report

The AAPG Ad Hoc Committee on Global Climate Issues has studied the supposition of human-induced climate change since the committee's inception in January 1998. This paper details the progress and findings of the committee through June 1999. At that time there had been essentially no geologic input into the global climate change debate. The following statements reflect the current state of climate knowledge from the geologic perspective as interpreted by the majority of the committee membership. The committee recognizes that new data could change its conclusions. The earth's climate is constantly changing owing to natural variability in earth processes. Natural climate variability over recent geological time is greater than reasonable estimates of potential human-induced greenhouse gas changes. Because no tool is available to test the supposition of human-induced climate change and the range of natural variability is so great, there is no discernible human influence on global climate at this time.

American Association of Petroleum Geologists Bulle↗

USGS2021

Daily patterns of river herring (Alosa spp.) spawning migrations: Environmental drivers and variation among coastal streams in Massachusetts

The timing of life history events in many plants and animals depends on the seasonal fluctuations of specific environmental conditions. Climate change is altering environmental regimes and disrupting natural cycles and patterns across communities. Anadromous fishes that migrate between marine and freshwater habitats to spawn are particularly sensitive to shifting environmental conditions and thus are vulnerable to the effects of climate change. However, for many anadromous fish species the specific environmental mechanisms driving migration and spawning patterns are not well understood. In this study, we investigated the upstream spawning migrations of river herring Alosa spp. in 12 coastal Massachusetts streams. By analyzing long-term data sets (8–28 years) of daily fish counts, we determined the local influence of environmental factors on daily migration patterns and compared seasonal run dynamics and environmental regimes among streams. Our results suggest that water temperature was the most consistent predictor of both daily river herring presence–absence and abundance during migration. We found inconsistent effects of streamflow and lunar phase, likely due to the anthropogenic manipulation of flow and connectivity in different systems. Geographic patterns in run dynamics and thermal regimes suggest that the more northerly runs in this region are relatively vulnerable to climate change due to migration occurring later in the spring season, at warmer water temperatures that approach thermal maxima, and during a narrower temporal window compared to southern runs. The phenology of river herring and their reliance on seasonal temperature patterns indicate that populations of these species may benefit from management practices that reduce within-stream anthropogenic water temperature manipulations and maintain coolwater thermal refugia.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2024

Peak streamflow trends in Michigan and their relation to changes in climate, water years 1921–2020

This study characterizes hydroclimatic variability and change in peak streamflow and daily streamflow in Michigan from water years 1921 through 2020. Four analysis periods were examined: the 100-year period from water year 1921 through 2020, the 75-year period from water year 1946 through 2020, the 50-year period from water year 1971 through 2020, and the 30-year period from water year 1991 through 2020. Peak streamflow and climate data were available at 4, 29, 50, and 30 streamgages in the 100-, 75-, 50-, and 30-year periods, respectively. Daily streamflow was available for 4, 29, 74, and 79 streamgages in the 100-, 75-, 50-, and 30-year periods, respectively. Peak streamflow for each streamgage and analysis period was assessed for monotonic trends and change points. Trends in peak streamflow were predominantly upward, with some isolated downward trends throughout the southern half of Michigan for all four analysis periods. Trends in the Upper Peninsula were downward in 75- and 50-year analysis periods and upward or neutral in the 30-year period. Upward trends in peak flows were largely driven by increases in precipitation, which occurred at nearly every streamgage in all analysis periods, with the greatest magnitude trends in winter and spring in the 50- and 30-year periods.

Michigan↗

USGS2019

Natural resource condition assessment: Channel Islands National Park

The Natural Resource Condition Assessment (NRCA) Program aims to provide documentation about the current conditions of important Park natural resources through a spatially explicit, multidisciplinary synthesis of existing scientific data and knowledge. Findings from the NRCA will help Channel Islands National Park (CINP) managers to develop near-term management priorities. The central objectives of this assessment were to evaluate the current conditions and trends of key Park resources, identify important knowledge gaps, and determine key stressors and threats. Because a recent report provided an assessment of marine resources (Engle 2006), which constitute 50% of the park, this NRCA focused on terrestrial resources. For this NRCA, CINP resource managers identified that the greatest Park need was to know whether or not vegetation (primarily woody vegetation) is recovering on the Channel Islands and how this may be influencing recovery of the native terrestrial vertebrates. To address this, the CINP NRCA team evaluated the condition of island vegetation and vertebrate communities using both: 1) already available, summarized information from reports, theses, and journal articles and 2) new analyses of recently available, existing data collected on the islands. Descriptions of specific methods used to analyze available data by the NRCA team are provided within the assessment sections in Chapter 4 of this report. The Team used the Vital Signs indicators as identified by Fancy et al. (2009) for monitoring the condition of Natural Resources in U.S. National Parks. Using this framework, the focal study resource components were the five CINP islands, because these are the bio-geophysical resources of greatest interest to the CINP. Each of the islands has its own unique history of human impacts, ecological conditions, restoration efforts, and natural resource monitoring. The Team evaluated island scrub recovery by assessing changes over time in two metrics: 1) vegetation community structure (species composition, cover, and spatial extent), and 2) vertebrate abundance, relative to the reference condition of each island. The reference conditions for this NRCA were the particular island’s ecological state prior to European settlement or ranching, which represent the ecological state to which the NPS desires the park return. For each metric, the Team determined the Reference Conditions/Values, Current Condition, Trend, and Recovery Potential (based on a review of the literature and from the NRCA team’s analysis of newly available data), Threats and Stressors, Data Gaps, Overall Condition. A qualitative statement of overall current condition was created for each metric, after all data and literature relevant to the measures (i.e., vegetation and vertebrates) of each resource component (i.e., island) were reviewed and evaluated. All information gathered for this NRCA is available and managed by CINP, so that the compilation of resources would be available not only for the assessment team, but will be provided for future Park reference. Chapter 1 of this NRCA provides a descriptive background of NRCAs. Chapter 2 provides Park-wide natural resource background information, while Chapter 3 describes the overall methodological approach used in this assessment. Chapter 4 provides a detailed assessment of each island’s condition, which is then summarized Park-wide and for each island in Chapter 5. Based on both vegetation recovery and vertebrate population abundances, our assessment found Santa Cruz Island (SCI), Santa Rosa Island (SRI), San Miguel Island (SMI), and Anacapa Island (AI) to be, overall, in moderate condition and slowly recovering following the removal of non-native herbivores. The condition of Santa Barbara Island (SBI) is poor and remains in a state that is not likely to improve without assisted recovery by the Park. All islands have exhibited some level of native vegetation recovery, with most of the observed natural recovery occurring on SCI, SRI, SMI, and AI; very little recovery has occurred at present on SBI. Vegetation recovery is uneven across each island and largely limited to mesic areas, such as north-facing slopes. Areas that will likely require some assisted recovery efforts are those that are: at risk of erosion, isolated, lacking native seed banks, and plagued with high competition of non-native grasses and other invasives. Some plant communities, such as exposed upland vegetation on SRI, also have lower natural recovery potential and will likely require assisted recovery. The overall condition of the Park’s terrestrial island vertebrate species generally appears to be good and improving, with high potential for further recovery to reach pre-ranching era reference conditions. This is particularly true for vertebrates on SCI, SRI, and SMI. Although there are limited data for AI, the data that are available suggest that vertebrates on that island are in good condition and improving as well. However, the condition of SBI vertebrates is only moderate, with natural recovery potential being low, with many landbird species’ populations currently declining, extinct, or not improving. An overarching theme across the Park’s terrestrial island vertebrate populations is that many of them are in good condition because the particular animals are habitat generalists, so their population dynamics are not strongly tied to habitat conditions. However, those landbirds associated with riparian vegetation are not showing signs of recovery across the Park islands, and riparian areas appear to be one of the habitats with limited natural recovery potential on the islands. Overwhelmingly, the most critical data gap that emerged from our analysis was the lack of current vegetation maps for most of the islands (AI, SCI, SRI, SMI). The lack of this information made it difficult to assess spatial changes in island vegetation over time, and to relate those changes to observed changes in vertebrate species abundances. Therefore, we were limited in our spatial assessment of vegetation recovery for AI, SCI, SRI, and SMI, and were only able to relate the current vegetation with island landbird analysis for SBI. Another common theme across islands was the lack of information on best techniques for shrub reintroduction and recovery, and the success of invasive species removal and re-vegetation efforts. Abundance, distribution, and habitat affinities of reptiles and amphibians are poorly known for AI, SCI, SRI, and SMI, making it difficult to assess their population condition and trends, and their potential responses to shrub recovery. Mammal and landbird populations are reasonably well-sampled across most of the islands, but data are lacking for most vertebrates from AI, especially West and Middle AI where no vertebrate sampling occurs. The population status, cause of declines, and recovery needs are lacking for several landbird species across multiple islands, including loggerhead shrikes ( Lanius ludovicianus ssp.) on SCI and SRI, and Santa Cruz Island rufous crowned sparrows ( Aimophila ruficeps obscura ) on AI. Additionally, island song sparrows ( Melospiza melodia graminea ) remain extirpated on SBI and data are needed for assessing their recovery potential on the island. The potentially major threats facing the islands’ flora and fauna today are: areas of continued erosion, potential new non-native introductions, and climate change. The Park islands have already experienced warming over the last several decades due to human-induced climate change, and are projected to experience continued warming. These increasing stresses imposed by climate change may slow and inhibit natural recovery potentials for island fauna, and especially flora.

California↗

USGS2017

Hydrologic impacts of changes in climate and glacier extent in the Gulf of Alaska watershed

High‐resolution regional‐scale hydrologic models were used to quantify the response of late 21st century runoff from the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) watershed to changes in regional climate and glacier extent. NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data were combined with five Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 general circulation models (GCMs) for two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (4.5 and 8.5) to develop meteorological forcing for the period 2070–2099. A hypsographic model was used to estimate future glacier extent given assumed equilibrium line altitude (ELA) increases of 200 and 400 m. GCM predictions show an increase in annual precipitation of 12% for RCP 4.5 and 21% for RCP 8.5, and an increase in annual temperature of 2.5°C for RCP 4.5 and 4.3°C for RCP 8.5, averaged across the GOA. Scenarios with perturbed climate and glaciers predict annual GOA‐wide runoff to increase by 9% for RCP4.5/ELA200 case and 14% for the RCP8.5/ELA400 case. The glacier runoff decreased by 14% for RCP4.5/ELA200 and by 34% for the RCP8.5/ELA400 case. Intermodel variability in annual runoff was found to be approximately twice the variability in precipitation input. Additionally, there are significant changes in runoff partitioning and increases in snowpack runoff are dominated by increases in rain‐on‐snow events. We present results aggregated across the entire GOA and also for individual watersheds to illustrate the range in hydrologic regime changes and explore the sensitivities of these results by independently perturbing only climate forcings and only glacier cover.

Alaska, British Columbia, Yukon↗

USGS2011

Rising sea level may cause decline of fringing coral reefs

Coral reefs are major marine ecosystems and critical resources for marine diversity and fisheries. These ecosystems are widely recognized to be at risk from a number of stressors, and added to those in the past several decades is climate change due to anthropogenically driven increases in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. Most threatening to most coral reefs are elevated sea surface temperatures and increased ocean acidity [e.g., Kleypas et al., 1999; Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2007], but sea level rise, another consequence of climate change, is also likely to increase sedimentary processes that potentially interfere with photosynthesis, feeding, recruitment, and other key physiological processes (Figure 1). Anderson et al. [2010] argue compellingly that potential hazardous impacts to coastlines from 21st-century sea level rise are greatly underestimated, particularly because of the rapid rate of rise. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates that sea level will rise in the coming century (1990–2090) by 2.2–4.4 millimeters per year, when projected with little contribution from melting ice [Meehl et al., 2007]. New studies indicate that rapid melting of land ice could substantially increase the rate of sea level rise [Grinsted et al., 2009; Milne et al., 2009].

Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union↗

USGS2011

Linking habitat quality with trophic performance of steelhead along forest gradients in the South Fork Trinity River Watershed, California

We examined invertebrate prey, fish diet, and energy assimilation in relation to habitat variation for steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss (anadromous rainbow trout) and rainbow trout in nine low-order tributaries of the South Fork Trinity River, northern California. These streams spanned a range of environmental conditions, which allowed us to use bioenergetics modeling to determine the relative effects of forest cover, stream temperature, season, and fish age on food consumption and growth efficiency. Evidence of seasonal shifts in reliance on aquatic versus terrestrial food sources was detected among forest cover categories and fish ages, although these categories were not robust indicators of O. mykiss condition and growth efficiency. Consumption estimates were generally less than 20% of maximum consumption, and fish lost weight in some streams during summer low-flow conditions when stream temperatures exceeded 15°C. Current 100-year climate change projections for California threaten to exacerbate negative growth patterns and may undermine the productivity of this steelhead population, which is currently not listed as endangered or threatened. To demonstrate the potential effect of global warming on fish growth, we ran three climate change scenarios in two representative streams. Simulated temperature increases ranging from 1.4°C to 5.5°C during the summer and from 1.5°C to 2.9C during the winter amplified the weight loss; estimated average growth for age-1 fish was 0.4–4.5 times lower than normal (low to high estimated temperature increase) in the warm stream and 0.05–0.8 times lower in the cool stream. We conclude that feeding rate and temperature during the summer currently limit the growth and productivity of steelhead and rainbow trout in low-order streams in the South Fork Trinity River basin and predict that climate change will have detrimental effects on steelhead growth as well as on macroinvertebrate communities and stream ecosystems in general.

Transactions of the American Fisheries Society↗

USGS2015

Late Quaternary chronostratigraphic framework of terraces and alluvium along the lower Ohio River, southwestern Indiana and western Kentucky, USA

The lower Ohio River valley is a terraced fluvial landscape that has been profoundly influenced by Quaternary climate change and glaciation. A modern Quaternary chronostratigraphic framework was developed for the lower Ohio River valley using optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating and allostratigraphic mapping to gain insights into the nature of fluvial responses to glacial–interglacial/stadial–interstadial transitions and Holocene climate change. River deposits, T0 (youngest) to T7 (oldest), were mapped along a 75 km reach of the lower Ohio River and were dated using 46 OSL and 5 radiocarbon samples. The examination of cores combined with OSL and radiocarbon dating shows that fluvial sediments older than marine oxygen isotope stage (MIS) 2 are present only in the subsurface. Aggradation during MIS 6 (Illinoian glaciation) filled the valley to within &sim;7 m of the modern floodplain, and by &sim;114 ka (MIS 5e/Sangamon interglacial) the Ohio River had scoured the MIS 6 sediments to &sim;22 m below the modern floodplain surface. There were no fluvial sediments in the valley with ages between MIS 5e and the middle of MIS 3. The MIS 3 ages (&sim;39 ka) and stratigraphic position of T5 deposits suggest the Ohio River aggraded 8–14 m during MIS 4 or MIS 3. Near the end of MIS 3, the Ohio River incised the mid Last Glacial (mid-Wisconsinan) deposits &sim;10 m and began aggrading again by &sim;30 ka. Aggradation continued into MIS 2, with maximum MIS 2 aggradation occurring before &sim;21 ka, which is coincident with the global Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). As the Ohio River adjusted to changing fluxes in sediment load and discharge following the LGM, it formed a sequence of fill-cut terraces in the MIS 2 outwash that get progressively younger with decreasing elevation, ranging in age from &sim;21 ka to &sim;13 ka. From &sim;14 ka to &sim;13 ka the Ohio River rapidly incised &sim;3 m to form a new terrace, and by &sim;12 ka at the onset of the Holocene, the Ohio River established a meandering channel pattern. The river formed a broad floodplain surface from &sim;12 ka to &sim;6 ka, and then incised &sim;1 m and formed a fill-cut terrace from &sim;6 ka to &sim;5 ka. After &sim;5 ka, likely in response to mid-Holocene drought in North America, the Ohio River incised &sim;5 m, and by &sim;4 ka the river began aggrading again. The Ohio River has aggraded &sim;4 m since aggradation began at &sim;4 ka. The chronostratigraphic framework and reconstructed history developed here suggest that the lower Ohio River is highly sensitive to glacial–interglacial transitions and abrupt Holocene climate change and responds rapidly to these allogenic forcings.

Indiana, Kentucky↗

USGS2013

Maintaining and restoring sustainable ecosystems in southern Nevada

Managers in southern Nevada are challenge with determining appropriate goals and objectives and developing viable approaches for maintaining and restoring sustainable ecosystems in a time of rapid socio-ecological and environmental change. Sustainable or "healthy" ecosystems supply clean air, water and habitat for a diverse array of plants and animals. As described in Chapter 1, sustainable ecosystems retain characteristic processes like hydrological flux and storage, geomorphic processes, biogeochemical cycling and storage, biological activity and productivity, and population regeneration and reproduction over the normal cycle of disturbance events (modified from Chapin and others 1996 and Christensen and others 1996). Ecological restoration of stressed or disturbed ecosystems in an integral part of managing for sustainable ecosystems. The Society of Ecological Restoration International (SERI) defines ecological restoration as the process of assisting the recovery of an ecosystem that has been degraded, damaged, or destroyed (SERI 2004). Many of the southern Nevada's ecosystems are being subjected to anthropogenic stressors that span global, regional, and local scales (Chapter 2)., and are crossing ecological thresholds to new alternative states (Chapter 4 and Chapter 5). These alternative states often represent novel communities with disturbance regimes that differ significantly from historic conditions. Past management and restoration goals often focused on returning ecosystems to pre-disturbance conditions (Harris and others 2006). This approach assumes stable or equilibrium conditions and ignores changes in ecosystems processes due to land uses, increases in CO 2 concentrations, and climate change. A more realistic approach is to base management and restoration goals on the current potential of an ecosystem to support a given set of ecological conditions, and on the likelihood of future change due to warming climate (Harris and others 2006). This approach requires understanding ecosystem resilience to anthropogenic disturbance and climate change, the alternative states that exist for ecosystems, and the factors that result in threshold crossing (Bestelmeyer and others 2009; Hobbs and Harris 2001; Stingham and others 2003; Whisemnant 1999). It also requires the ability to predict how climate is likely to influence ecosystems in the future (Harris and others 2006). This chapter addresses the restoration aspects of Sub-goal 1.3 in the SNAP Science Research Strategy which is to restore and sustain proper function of southern Nevada's watersheds and landscapes (able 1.3; Turner and others 2009). The effects of global, regional and local stresses on southern Nevada ecosystems are presented in Chapter 2. Here, we discuss appropriate objectives and develop guidelines for maintaining and restoring southern Nevada ecosystems. We then discuss the differences in ecological resilience to stress and disturbance and resistance to invasive species in southern Nevada ecosystems and describe restoration and management approaches for the different ecosystem types. We conclude with knowledge gaps and management implications.

Nevada↗

USGS2020

Critical shifts in trace metal transport and remediation performance under future low river flows

Exceptionally low river flows are predicted to become more frequent and more severe across many global regions as a consequence of climate change. Investigations of trace metal transport dynamics across streamflows reveal stark changes in water chemistry, metal transformation processes, and remediation effectiveness under exceptionally low-flow conditions. High spatial resolution hydrological and water quality datasets indicate that metal-rich groundwater will exert a greater control on stream water chemistry and metal concentrations because of climate change. This is because the proportion of stream water sourced from mined areas and mineralized strata will increase under predicted future low-flow scenarios (from 25% under Q45 flow to 66% under Q99 flow in this study). However, mineral speciation modelling indicates that changes in stream pH and hydraulic conditions at low flow will decrease aqueous metal transport and increase sediment metal concentrations by enhancing metal sorption directly to streambed sediments. Solute transport modelling further demonstrates how increases in the importance of metal-rich diffuse groundwater sources at low flow could minimize the benefits of point source metal contamination treatment. Understanding metal transport dynamics under exceptionally low flows, as well as under high flows, is crucial to evaluate ecosystem service provision and remediation effectiveness in watersheds under future climate change scenarios.

Environmental Science & Technology↗