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At least 1,621 records · Page 90Linked to original sources

USGS2023

Intensified warming and aridity accelerate terminal lake desiccation in the Great Basin of the western United States

Terminal lakes in the Great Basin (GB) of the western US host critical wildlife habitat and food for migrating birds and can be associated with serious human health and economic consequences when they desiccate. Water levels have declined dramatically in the last 100+ years due to diversion of inflows, drought and climate change. Satellite-derived environmental science data records (ESDRs) from the MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) (snow cover, evapotranspiration (ET) and land surface temperature (LST)), enable a unique approach to evaluate the effects of aridification on terminal lakes and to study their individual vulnerabilities. Surface and air temperatures in the GB are rising dramatically, with a sharp rise in the rate of increase observed beginning around 2011, while the number of days of snow cover is declining especially in the western mountainous part of the GB as exemplified in Mono Basin, California. Rising temperatures coincide with fewer days of snow cover, a decrease of inflow to the lakes and greater evaporation of water from the lakes. MODIS ESDRs show strong and statistically significant increasing surface temperature (LST) in the GB, a reduction in the number of days of snow cover, and mixed results in ET. ET declined slightly in the more arid parts of the GB due to greater moisture restrictions to evaporation from extended drought, while ET increased in the more-vegetated, wetter, mountainous northeastern parts as temperatures have risen. Severe and costly ecological, human health and economic consequences are expected if the lakes continue to decline as predicted.

Great Basin↗

USGS2024

Smaller body size under warming is not due to gill-oxygen limitation in a coldwater salmonid

Declining body size in fishes and other aquatic ectotherms associated with anthropogenic climate warming has significant implications for future fisheries yields, stock assessments and aquatic ecosystem stability. One proposed mechanism seeking to explain such body-size reductions, known as the gill oxygen limitation (GOL) hypothesis, has recently been used to model future impacts of climate warming on fisheries but has not been robustly empirically tested. We used brook trout ( Salvelinus fontinalis ), a fast-growing, cold-water salmonid species of broad economic, conservation and ecological value, to examine the GOL hypothesis in a long-term experiment quantifying effects of temperature on growth, resting metabolic rate (RMR), maximum metabolic rate (MMR) and gill surface area (GSA). Despite significantly reduced growth and body size at an elevated temperature, allometric slopes of GSA were not significantly different than 1.0 and were above those for RMR and MMR at both temperature treatments (15°C and 20°C), contrary to GOL expectations. We also found that the effect of temperature on RMR was time-dependent, contradicting the prediction that heightened temperatures increase metabolic rates and reinforcing the importance of longer-term exposures (e.g. >6 months) to fully understand the influence of acclimation on temperature–metabolic rate relationships. Our results indicate that although oxygen limitation may be important in some aspects of temperature–body size relationships and constraints on metabolic supply may contribute to reduced growth in some cases, it is unlikely that GOL is a universal mechanism explaining temperature–body size relationships in aquatic ectotherms. We suggest future research focus on alternative mechanisms underlying temperature–body size relationships, and that projections of climate change impacts on fisheries yields using models based on GOL assumptions be interpreted with caution.

Journal of Experimental Biology↗

USGS2013

Autumn monitoring of resident avifauna on Guana Island, British Virgin Islands

Although the Caribbean region is considered a biodiversity hotspot and a priority for ecological conservation efforts, little information exists on population trends of West Indian landbirds. We combined avian survey data collected from three studies spanning a 16-year period on a small island with a minimal human presence in the British Virgin Islands. Although abundances varied among surveys, the same species were detected with rare exceptions. Despite stability in species composition, the resident landbirds were variable in their individual detectabilities. Survey detections relatively mirrored net captures for some species, but are quite different for others. We suspect that this is likely due to differences in detectability due to species-specific behaviors mediated by environmental conditions, such as rainfall, during the month or months prior to our surveys. It is difficult to assess the influence of timing or amount of precipitation on bird detections rates among our surveys due to a lack of consistent collection of location-specific weather data in the British Virgin Islands. Our study suggests monitoring efforts conducted in concert with collection of site-specific climate data would facilitate improved interpretation of survey data and a better understanding of avian species response to climate mediated changes.

Ornitologia Neotropical↗

USGS2022

What determines the effectiveness of Pinyon-Juniper clearing treatments? Evidence from the remote sensing archive and counter-factual scenarios

In the intermountain western US, expansion of Pinyon ( Pinus edulis) and Juniper ( Juniperus spp. ) woodlands (PJ) into grasslands and shrublands is a pervasive phenomenon, and an example of the global trend towards enhanced woody growth in drylands. Due to the perceived impacts of these expansions on ecosystem services related to biodiversity, hydrology, soil stability, fire prevention, and livestock forage, mechanical and chemical PJ reduction treatments have been a long-standing practice in the region. More recently, PJ reduction practices have come under enhanced public scrutiny, due to potential impacts on PJ-dependent wildlife, risk of erosion due to soil disturbance, and cost effectiveness due to variable rates of long-term success. Moreover, there is growing interest in understanding the biotic, abiotic, and management conditions under which PJ reduction treatments are effective. Here, we evaluated PJ reduction treatment outcomes leveraging large, curated databases of land treatments, new remotely sensed fractional cover time-series products, gridded climate and soils data, and analytical approaches adopted from the econometric literature. From 302 treatment events and 1569 distinct treatment polygons we found evidence that treatments reduced tree cover and largely increased shrub and perennial herbaceous cover for 10 or more years. However, treatments were also associated with increases in annual, likely non-native, herbaceous cover . Importantly, we noted treatment outcomes varied by landscape context, with some soil and geomorphic settings exhibiting consistent returns to pre-treatment conditions within 10–15 years, and others exhibiting more persistent changes in functional type composition. Despite the overall trends we observed, there was considerable unexplained variability in outcomes from treatment to treatment, highlighting the need for caution and attention to local geomorphic and biological context in planning future treatments.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah↗

USGS2026

DRIFteRS: A dataset of drift invertebrate densities in streams and rivers across western North America, 1997–2024

Prey availability is among the most influential and highly variable determinants of fish growth and freshwater habitat carrying capacity, yet it remains understudied compared to physical habitat variables (Ouellet et al., 2025; Rosenfeld et al., 2014; Weber et al., 2017). We often lack a clear understanding of how much food is available to fishes, how it varies spatially and temporally, and how it influences responses to restoration (Ouellet et al., 2025; Rossi et al., 2024; Wipfli et al., 2010). Drift invertebrates—the primary food source for juvenile salmonids and other drift-foraging fishes—play a pivotal role in these dynamics. To better understand the spatiotemporal variability of drift invertebrate abundance and biomass across the freshwater range of drift-feeding salmonids in western North America, we compiled the DRift Invertebrates For salmonids in River Systems (DRIFteRS) dataset. The dataset encompasses 6125 samples of drift invertebrates, and, for a subset of drift samples, associated benthic invertebrate density data, collected from 1360 reaches on 459 unique rivers and streams spanning 55 river basins considered hydrologically independent (i.e., not nested within the same larger watershed) across British Columbia, Canada, and the U.S. states of Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming. Sample sites represent a diverse array of river and stream habitats (e.g., headwater, mainstem, side channel), in watersheds with diverse land uses (e.g., urban, wilderness, agricultural), and disturbance histories (e.g., fire, restoration). Collected between 1997 and 2024, the data span the full calendar year and capture daily and seasonal patterns in drift abundance and biomass densities. When paired with water quality and quantity data as well as remotely sensed environmental landscape data, such as land use/land cover, climate, and disturbance history, channel morphology, and riparian vegetation composition, the DRIFteRS dataset can aid in identifying key drivers of drift invertebrate densities and mean body size and support predictive modeling in unsampled locations and times. The dataset may also be used to analyze aquatic-terrestrial resource flows, derive prey-encounter rates and profitability (mean prey size), and inform broader investigations of sit-and-wait foraging ecology, especially when paired with data on drift-foraging predators. For salmonid-focused applications, the dataset can be integrated into habitat evaluation models, including bioenergetic (e.g., Naman et al., 2019) and life cycle models (e.g., Beechie et al., 2023), to improve estimates of habitat capacity and population dynamics for river- and stream-rearing salmonids. Understanding prey availability dynamics is increasingly important, because rising water temperatures increase salmonid metabolic demands (Crozier et al., 2010). Flow regime transitions (i.e., snow or glacier dominated to rain dominated; Beechie et al., 2013), wildfire frequency and intensity (Hessburg et al., 2021), as well as plant community and phenology shifts (Cleland et al., 2007; Franklin et al., 2016) are all predicted to change with rising temperatures and are potential drivers of terrestrial and aquatic invertebrate prey quality and availability in lotic systems. These insights can ultimately inform restoration prioritization and design, helping managers consider food resource implications when evaluating restoration priorities and match habitat improvement to food supply. The data are released under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license and may be reused with attribution.

Alaska, Arizona, British Columbia, California, Col↗

USGS2010

Complete mitochondrial genome of a Pleistocene jawbone unveils the origin of polar bear

The polar bear has become the flagship species in the climate-change discussion. However, little is known about how past climate impacted its evolution and persistence, given an extremely poor fossil record. Although it is undisputed from analyses of mitochondrial (mt) DNA that polar bears constitute a lineage within the genetic diversity of brown bears, timing estimates of their divergence have differed considerably. Using next-generation sequencing technology, we have generated a complete, high-quality mt genome from a stratigraphically validated 130,000- to 110,000-year-old polar bear jawbone. In addition, six mt genomes were generated of extant polar bears from Alaska and brown bears from the Admiralty and Baranof islands of the Alexander Archipelago of southeastern Alaska and Kodiak Island. We show that the phylogenetic position of the ancient polar bear lies almost directly at the branching point between polar bears and brown bears, elucidating a unique morphologically and molecularly documented fossil link between living mammal species. Molecular dating and stable isotope analyses also show that by very early in their evolutionary history, polar bears were already inhabitants of the Artic sea ice and had adapted very rapidly to their current and unique ecology at the top of the Arctic marine food chain. As such, polar bears provide an excellent example of evolutionary opportunism within a widespread mammalian lineage.

PNAS↗

USGS2015

Linking dynamic habitat selection with wading bird foraging distributions across resource gradients

Species distribution models (SDM) link species occurrence with a suite of environmental predictors and provide an estimate of habitat quality when the variable set captures the biological requirements of the species. SDMs are inherently more complex when they include components of a species' ecology such as conspecific attraction and behavioral flexibility to exploit resources that vary across time and space. Wading birds are highly mobile, demonstrate flexible habitat selection, and respond quickly to changes in habitat quality; thus serving as important indicator species for wetland systems. We developed a spatio-temporal, multi-SDM framework using Great Egret ( Ardea alba ), White Ibis ( Eudocimus albus ), and Wood Stork ( Mycteria Americana ) distributions over a decadal gradient of environmental conditions to predict species-specific abundance across space and locations used on the landscape over time. In models of temporal dynamics, species demonstrated conditional preferences for resources based on resource levels linked to differing temporal scales. Wading bird abundance was highest when prey production from optimal periods of inundation was concentrated in shallow depths. Similar responses were observed in models predicting locations used over time, accounting for spatial autocorrelation. Species clustered in response to differing habitat conditions, indicating that social attraction can co-vary with foraging strategy, water-level changes, and habitat quality. This modeling framework can be applied to evaluate the multi-annual resource pulses occurring in real-time, climate change scenarios, or restorative hydrological regimes by tracking changing seasonal and annual distribution and abundance of high quality foraging patches.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2010

Gene movement and genetic association with regional climate gradients in California valley oak ( Quercus lobata Née) in the face of climate change

Rapid climate change jeopardizes tree populations by shifting current climate zones. To avoid extinction, tree populations must tolerate, adapt, or migrate. Here we investigate geographic patterns of genetic variation in valley oak, Quercus lobata Née, to assess how underlying genetic structure of populations might influence this species’ ability to survive climate change. First, to understand how genetic lineages shape spatial genetic patterns, we examine historical patterns of colonization. Second, we examine the correlation between multivariate nuclear genetic variation and climatic variation. Third, to illustrate how geographic genetic variation could interact with regional patterns of 21st Century climate change, we produce region‐specific bioclimatic distributions of valley oak using Maximum Entropy (MAXENT) models based on downscaled historical (1971–2000) and future (2070–2100) climate grids. Future climatologies are based on a moderate‐high (A2) carbon emission scenario and two different global climate models. Chloroplast markers indicate historical range‐wide connectivity via colonization, especially in the north. Multivariate nuclear genotypes show a strong association with climate variation that provides opportunity for local adaptation to the conditions within their climatic envelope. Comparison of regional current and projected patterns of climate suitability indicates that valley oaks grow in distinctly different climate conditions in different parts of their range. Our models predict widely different regional outcomes from local displacement of a few kilometres to hundreds of kilometres. We conclude that the relative importance of migration, adaptation, and tolerance are likely to vary widely for populations among regions, and that late 21st Century conditions could lead to regional extinctions.

California↗

USGS2001

Mountain hemlock growth responds to climatic variability at annual and decadal time scales

Improved understanding of tree growth responses to climate is needed to model and predict forest ecosystem responses to current and future climatic variability. We used dendroecological methods to study the effects of climatic variability on radial growth of a subalpine conifer, mountain hemlock ( Tsuga mertensiana ). Tree-ring chronologies were developed for 31 sites, spanning the latitudinal and elevational ranges of mountain hemlock in the Pacific Northwest. Factor analysis was used to identify common patterns of interannual growth variability among the chronologies, and correlation and regression analyses were used to identify climatic factors associated with that variability. Factor analysis identified three common growth patterns, representing groups of sites with different climate–growth relationships. At high-elevation and midrange sites in Washington and northern Oregon, growth was negatively correlated with spring snowpack depth, and positively correlated with growth-year summer temperature and the winter Pacific Decadal Oscillation index (PDO). In southern Oregon, growth was negatively correlated with spring snowpack depth and previous summer temperature, and positively correlated with previous summer precipitation. At the low-elevation sites, growth was mostly insensitive to annual climatic variability but displayed sensitivity to decadal variability in the PDO opposite to that found at high-elevation sites. Mountain hemlock growth appears to be limited by late snowmelt, short growing seasons, and cool summer temperatures throughout much of its range in the Pacific Northwest. Earlier snowmelt, higher summer temperatures, and lower summer precipitation in southern Oregon produce conditions under which growth is limited by summer temperature and/or soil water availability. Increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentrations could produce warmer temperatures and reduced snowpack depths in the next century. Such changes would likely increase mountain hemlock growth and productivity throughout much of its range in Washington and northern Oregon. Increased summer drought stress and reduced productivity would be likely, however, in mountain hemlock forests of southern Oregon and near the species lower elevation limit at some sites.

Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2022

Phenological variation in spring migration timing of adult alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus) in coastal Massachusetts

The timing of biological events in plants and animals, such as migration and reproduction, is shifting due to climate change. Anadromous fishes are particularly susceptible to these shifts as they are subject to strong seasonal cycles when transitioning between marine and freshwater habitats to spawn. We used linear models to determine the extent of phenological shifts in adult Alewife Alosa pseudoharengus as they migrated from ocean to freshwater environments during spring to spawn at 12 sites along the northeastern USA. We also evaluated broadscale oceanic and atmospheric drivers that trigger their movements from offshore to inland habitats, including sea surface temperature, North Atlantic Oscillation index, and Gulf Stream index. Run timing metrics of initiation, median (an indicator of peak run timing), end, and duration were found to vary among sites. Although most sites showed negligible shifts towards earlier timing, statistically significant changes were detected in three systems. Overall, winter sea surface temperature, spring and fall transition dates, and annual run size were the strongest predictors of run initiation and median dates, while a combination of within-season and seasonal-lag effects influenced run end and duration timing. Disparate results observed across the 12 spawning runs suggest that regional environmental processes were not consistent drivers of phenology and local environmental and ecological conditions may be more important. Additional years of data to extend time series and monitoring of Alewife timing and movements in nearshore habitats may provide important information about staging behaviors just before adults transition between ocean and freshwater habitats.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2018

Managing forest habitat for conservation-reliant species in a changing climate: The case of the endangered Kirtland’s Warbler

Conservation and recovery of species of concern necessitates evaluating forest habitat conditions under changing climate conditions, especially in the early stages of the delisting process. Managers must weigh implications of near-term habitat management activities within the context of changing environmental conditions and a species’ biological traits that may influence their vulnerability to changing conditions. Here we applied established population-habitat relationships based on decades of monitoring and research-management collaborations for the Kirtland’s Warbler ( Setophaga kirtlandii ) to project potential impacts of changing environmental conditions to breeding habitat distribution, quantity, and quality in the near future. Kirtland’s warblers are habitat-specialists that nest exclusively within dense jack pine ( Pinus banksiana ) forests between ca. 5–20 years of age. Using Random Forests to predict changes in distribution and growth rate of jack pine under future scenarios, results indicate the projected distribution of jack pine will contract considerably (ca. 75%) throughout the Lake States region, U.S.A. in response to projected environmental conditions in 2099 under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 climate scenarios regardless of climate model. Reduced suitability for jack pine regeneration across the Lake States may constrain management options, especially for creating high stem-density plantations nesting habitat. However, conditions remain suitable for jack pine regeneration within their historical and current core breeding range in northern Lower Michigan and several satellite breeding areas. Projected changes in jack pine growth rates varied within the core breeding area, but altered growth rates did not greatly alter the duration that habitat remained suitable for nesting by the Kirtland’s Warblers. These findings contribute to Kirtland’s Warbler conservation by informing habitat spatial planning of plantation management to provide a constant supply of nesting habitat based on the spatial variability of potential loss or gain of lands environmentally suitable for regenerating jack pine in the long-term.

Michigan, Wisconsin↗

USGS2018

Combined effects of temperature and salinity on the physiology of two geographically-distant eastern oyster populations

Understanding why a species occupies a certain geographic range and predicting how they will be affected by climate change require characterizing physiological traits in geographically-distant populations. The objective of this study was to perform a direct comparison of two eastern oyster ( Crassostrea virginica ) populations that occupy contrasting temperature and salinity habitats, New Brunswick, Canada (47°N – Gulf of St. Lawrence) and Louisiana, USA (29°N – Gulf of Mexico). Specifically, clearance rate, valve opening, and oxygen consumption rate were measured in oysters of both populations following a full factorial design with three temperatures (10, 20, 30 °C) and two salinities (15, 25). New Brunswick oysters had a greater gill area, shell gape angle, and oxygen consumption rate. Temperature was the main driver of clearance rate, valve opening duration and oxygen consumption rate. Clearance rate at 20 °C and 30 °C was significantly higher than at 10 °C, and oysters at 20 °C had their valves opened for a greater percentage of time compared to oysters at 10 °C and 30 °C. Oxygen consumption rate increased gradually from 10 °C to 30 °C and similarly for both populations, with no indications of a thermal breakpoint at 30 °C. Temperature coefficients for the oxygen consumption rate (Q 10 ) were within the normal ecological range for both populations. No physiological differences were observed between salinity treatments in both populations. No latitudinal compensation in the physiological rates was found. Overall, results showed that C. virginica is tolerant to a broad range of temperatures and salinities. Such physiological plasticity is consistent with the species' extended geographical range.

Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology↗

USGS2022

Spatial estimates of soil moisture for understanding ecological potential and risk: a case study for arid and semi-arid ecosystems

Soil temperature and moisture (soil-climate) affect plant growth and microbial metabolism, providing a mechanistic link between climate and growing conditions. However, spatially explicit soil-climate estimates that can inform management and research are lacking. We developed a framework to estimate spatiotemporal-varying soil moisture (monthly, annual, and seasonal) and temperature-moisture regimes as gridded surfaces by enhancing the Newhall simulation model. Importantly, our approach allows for the substitution of data and parameters, such as climate, snowmelt, soil properties, alternative potential evapotranspiration equations and air-soil temperature offsets. We applied the model across the western United States using monthly climate averages (1981–2010). The resulting data are intended to help improve conservation and habitat management, including but not limited to increasing the understanding of vegetation patterns (restoration effectiveness), the spread of invasive species and wildfire risk. The demonstrated modeled results had significant correlations with vegetation patterns—for example, soil moisture variables predicted sagebrush (R 2 = 0.51), annual herbaceous plant cover (R 2 = 0.687), exposed soil (R 2 = 0.656) and fire occurrence (R 2 = 0.343). Using our framework, we have the flexibility to assess dynamic climate conditions (historical, contemporary or projected) that could improve the knowledge of changing spatiotemporal biotic patterns and be applied to other geographic regions.

Land↗

USGS2014

Estimating the spatial distribution of wintering little brown bat populations in the eastern United States

Depicting the spatial distribution of wildlife species is an important first step in developing management and conservation programs for particular species. Accurate representation of a species distribution is important for predicting the effects of climate change, land-use change, management activities, disease, and other landscape-level processes on wildlife populations. We developed models to estimate the spatial distribution of little brown bat ( Myotis lucifugus ) wintering populations in the United States east of the 100th meridian, based on known hibernacula locations. From this data, we developed several scenarios of wintering population counts per county that incorporated uncertainty in the spatial distribution of the hibernacula as well as uncertainty in the size of the current little brown bat population. We assessed the variability in our results resulting from effects of uncertainty. Despite considerable uncertainty in the known locations of overwintering little brown bats in the eastern United States, we believe that models accurately depicting the effects of the uncertainty are useful for making management decisions as these models are a coherent organization of the best available information.

Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2013

Fine-scale hydrologic modeling for regional landscape applications: the California Basin Characterization Model development and performance

Introduction Resource managers need spatially explicit models of hydrologic response to changes in key climatic drivers across variable landscape conditions. We demonstrate the utility of a Basin Characterization Model for California (CA-BCM) to integrate high-resolution data on physical watershed characteristics with historical or projected climate data to predict watershed-specific hydrologic responses. Methods The CA-BCM applies a monthly regional water-balance model to simulate hydrologic responses to climate at the spatial resolution of a 270-m grid. The model has been calibrated using a total of 159 relatively unimpaired watersheds for the California region. Results As a result of calibration, predicted basin discharge closely matches measured data for validation watersheds. The CA-BCM recharge and runoff estimates, combined with estimates of snowpack and timing of snowmelt, provide a basis for assessing variations in water availability. Another important output variable, climatic water deficit , integrates the combined effects of temperature and rainfall on site-specific soil moisture, a factor that plants may respond to more directly than air temperature and precipitation alone. Model outputs are calculated for each grid cell, allowing results to be summarized for a variety of planning units including hillslopes, watersheds, ecoregions, or political boundaries. Conclusions The ability to confidently calculate hydrologic outputs at fine spatial scales provides a new suite of hydrologic predictor variables that can be used for a variety of purposes, such as projections of changes in water availability, environmental demand, or distribution of plants and habitats. Here we present the framework of the CA-BCM model for the California hydrologic region, a test of model performance on 159 watersheds, summary results for the region for the 1981–2010 time period, and changes since the 1951–1980 time period.

California↗

USGS2024

Assessing the attractiveness of native wildflower species to bees (Hymenoptera: Anthophila) in the southeastern United States

Habitat loss, agricultural intensification, pesticide use, disease and climate change have contributed to the decline of numerous insect groups. Recent government initiatives have recognized the importance of supplementary wildflower plantings to support native bee populations, yet little information exists on the attractiveness of recommended plant species to bees. With the use of network analysis and generalized linear mixed models, we evaluated the attractiveness of 18 wildflower species belonging to 6 families (Apiaceae, Apocynaceae, Asteraceae, Fabaceae, Lamiaceae and Verbenaceae) planted in a randomized block design by conducting timed targeted sweep netting surveys. We also evaluated the floral preferences of four bee species ( Apis mellifera , Halictus poeyi/ligatus , Bombus griseocollis and Bombus impatiens ) to the planted wildflower species with the use of GLMs. We found that Asclepias tuberosa, Gaillardia pulchella and Verbena hastata attracted the greatest abundance, richness and diversity of native bees compared to the other wildflower species. Collectively, Asclepias tuberosa, Gaillardia pulchella and Verbena hastata attracted 89% of all bee taxa in the study, which exemplifies the importance of including them in a wildflower mixture to attract native bees. While several wildflower species attracted low abundance, richness and diversity of native bees such as Monarda fistulosa, Symphyotrichum pilosum and Eryngium yuccifolium , they are still ecologically important for attracting uncommon or specialist bee species and should be included in seed mixes for this reason. Solution . Our results highlight that each species of native wildflower varies in the abundance, richness and diversity of native bees they attract; this could be considered in the decision-making of landowners and land managers to promote wildflower plantings to reflect the needs of certain groups of bees of conservation interest.

Alabama↗

USGS2026

Integrating climate and anthropogenic dynamics can inform multifaceted management for declining mule deer populations

Wildlife and their habitats face profound challenges from climate and landscape-scale changes that extend beyond the influence and time horizon of most biologists and land managers. In this changing environment, long-term datasets can enhance assessments of how demographic trends respond to interactions among local (e.g., habitat restoration decisions) and broad extent drivers, including energy development, to shape wildlife populations. Although many studies evaluate habitat selection or demographics for a single population, our multipopulation, multiscale study quantifies the influence of local management actions given broader environmental forces using both immediate and lagged effects. This approach may be particularly important for species with high site fidelity that may have less adaptive capacity, including mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ), which are experiencing widespread population declines. We analyzed a 40-year (1980–2019) dataset for 37 mule deer populations across Wyoming, USA, to test hypotheses about and quantify the relative influence of conditions within winter use areas on annual rates of juvenile recruitment. Recruitment has been strongly affected by multiple factors largely beyond the control of managers. Land cover (agriculture and shrubland) had the largest positive effects on recruitment, with estimates more than twice the magnitude of other variables, but also had limited presence in some winter use areas. The next strongest effect sizes were shared by energy developments (including oil/gas and wind energy) and climatic conditions, which, except for wind turbines, had broad distributions across winter use areas. Recruitment increased with higher mean winter temperatures and summer precipitation, but declined with wind, oil and gas developments, cumulative drought, and wildfire. Expected increases in drought and decreases in summer precipitation may constrain options to sustain mule deer populations. Although mule deer recruitment may sometimes be enhanced through habitat restoration, effects varied with treatment type, habitat type, and time since treatment. Given large constraining effects of temperature and drought, supporting drought resiliency for important habitat may be useful. Our results can be used to weigh the relative strength of threats and the value of restoration actions, interpret historic demographic change, prioritize populations for conservation, and optimize options for wildlife habitat management.

Wyoming↗

USGS2016

Cheatgrass percent cover change: Comparing recent estimates to climate change − Driven predictions in the Northern Great Basin

Cheatgrass ( Bromus tectorum L.) is a highly invasive species in the Northern Great Basin that helps decrease fire return intervals. Fire fragments the shrub steppe and reduces its capacity to provide forage for livestock and wildlife and habitat critical to sagebrush obligates. Of particular interest is the greater sage grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ), an obligate whose populations have declined so severely due, in part, to increases in cheatgrass and fires that it was considered for inclusion as an endangered species. Remote sensing technologies and satellite archives help scientists monitor terrestrial vegetation globally, including cheatgrass in the Northern Great Basin. Along with geospatial analysis and advanced spatial modeling, these data and technologies can identify areas susceptible to increased cheatgrass cover and compare these with greater sage grouse priority areas for conservation (PAC). Future climate models forecast a warmer and wetter climate for the Northern Great Basin, which likely will force changing cheatgrass dynamics. Therefore, we examine potential climate-caused changes to cheatgrass. Our results indicate that future cheatgrass percent cover will remain stable over more than 80% of the study area when compared with recent estimates, and higher overall cheatgrass cover will occur with slightly more spatial variability. The land area projected to increase or decrease in cheatgrass cover equals 18% and 1%, respectively, making an increase in fire disturbances in greater sage grouse habitat likely. Relative susceptibility measures, created by integrating cheatgrass percent cover and temporal standard deviation datasets, show that potential increases in future cheatgrass cover match future projections. This discovery indicates that some greater sage grouse PACs for conservation could be at heightened risk of fire disturbance. Multiple factors will affect future cheatgrass cover including changes in precipitation timing and totals and increases in freeze-thaw cycles. Understanding these effects can help direct land management, guide scientific research, and influence policy.

Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Washington, ↗