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Tracking changes in volcanic systems with seismic Interferometry

The detection and evaluation of time-dependent changes at volcanoes form the foundation upon which successful volcano monitoring is built. Temporal changes at volcanoes occur over all time scales and may be obvious (e.g., earthquake swarms) or subtle (e.g., a slow, steady increase in the level of tremor). Some of the most challenging types of time-dependent change to detect are subtle variations in material properties beneath active volcanoes. Although difficult to measure, such changes carry important information about stresses and fluids present within hydrothermal and magmatic systems. These changes are imprinted on seismic waves that propagate through volcanoes. In recent years, there has been a quantum leap in the ability to detect subtle structural changes systematically at volcanoes with seismic waves. The new methodology is based on the idea that useful seismic signals can be generated “at will” from seismic noise. This means signals can be measured any time, in contrast to the often irregular and unpredictable times of earthquakes. With seismic noise in the frequency band 0.1–1 Hz arising from the interaction of the ocean with the solid Earth known as microseisms, researchers have demonstrated that cross-correlations of passive seismic recordings between pairs of seismometers yield coherent signals (Campillo and Paul 2003; Shapiro and Campillo 2004). Based on this principle, coherent signals have been reconstructed from noise recordings in such diverse fields as helioseismology (Rickett and Claerbout 2000), ultrasound (Weaver and Lobkis 2001), ocean acoustic waves (Roux and Kuperman 2004), regional (Shapiro et al. 2005; Sabra et al. 2005; Bensen et al. 2007) and exploration (Draganov et al. 2007) seismology, atmospheric infrasound (Haney 2009), and studies of the cryosphere (Marsan et al. 2012). Initial applications of ambient seismic noise were to regional surface wave tomography (Shapiro et al. 2005). Brenguier et al. (2007) were the first to use ambient noise tomography (ANT) to map the 3D structure of a volcanic interior (at Piton de la Fournaise). Subsequent studies have imaged volcanoes with ANT at Okmok (Masterlark et al. 2010), Toba (Stankiewicz et al. 2010), Katmai (Thurber et al. 2012), Asama (Nagaoka et al. 2012), Uturuncu (Jay et al. 2012), and Kilauea (Ballmer et al. 2013b). In addition, Ma et al. (2013) have imaged a scatterer in the volcanic region of southern Peru by applying array techniques to ambient noise correlations. Prior to and in tandem with the development of ANT, researchers discovered that repeating earthquakes, which often occur at volcanoes, could be used to monitor subtle time-dependent changes with a technique known as the doublet method or coda wave interferometry (CWI) (Poupinet et al. 1984; Roberts et al. 1992; Ratdomopurbo and Poupinet 1995; Snieder et al. 2002; Pandolfi et al. 2006; Wegler et al. 2006; Martini et al. 2009; Haney et al. 2009; De Angelis 2009; Nagaoka et al. 2010; Battaglia et al. 2012; Erdem and Waite 2005; Hotovec-Ellis et al. 2014). Chaput et al. (2012) have also used scattered waves from Strombolian eruption coda at Erebus volcano to image the reflectivity of the volcanic interior with body wave interferometry. However, CWI in its original form was limited in that repeating earthquakes, or doublets, were not always guaranteed to occur. With the widespread use of noise correlations in seismology following the groundbreaking work by Campillo and Paul (2003) and Shapiro et al. (2005), it became evident that the nature of the ambient seismic field, due to its oceanic origin, enabled the continuous monitoring of subtle, time-dependent changes at both fault zones (Wegler and Sens-Schönfelder 2007; Brenguier et al. 2008b; Wegler et al. 2009; Sawazaki et al. 2009; Tatagi et al. 2012) and volcanoes (Sens-Schönfelder and Wegler 2006; Brenguier et al. 2008a) without the need for repeating earthquakes. Seismic precursors to eruptions based on ambient noise we

Book chapter↗

1999 Volcanic activity in Alaska and Kamchatka: Summary of events and response of the Alaska Volcano Observatory

The Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) monitors 41 historically active volcanoes along the Aleutian Arc. Twenty are seismically monitored and for the rest, the AVO monitoring program relies mainly on daily analysis of satellite images, pilot reports, and observations of local residents and ship's crews. In 1999, AVO responded to eruptive activity or suspect volcanic activity at 7 volcanic centers: Wrangell, Shrub mud volcano, Iliamna, Veniaminof, Pavlof, Shishaldin, and Vsevidof volcanoes. Of these, in 1999, AVO had real-time, continuously recording seismic networks at Iliamna, and Shishaldin. The phrase “suspect volcanic activity” (SVA), used to characterize several responses, is an eruption report or report of unusual activity that is subsequently determined to be normal or enhanced fumarolic activity, weather-related phenomena, or a non-volcanic event. In addition to responding to eruptive activity at Alaska volcanoes, AVO also disseminated information for the Kamchatkan Volcanic Eruption Response Team (KVERT) about the 1999 activity of four Russian volcanoes: Sheveluch, Klyuchevskoy, Bezimianny, and Karymsky volcanoes.

Alaska↗

1997 volcanic activity in Alaska and Kamchatka: summary of events and response of the Alaska Volcano Observatory

The Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) monitors over 40 historically active volcanoes along the Aleutian Arc. Twenty are seismically monitored and for the rest, the AVO monitoring program relies mainly on pilot reports, observations of local residents and ship crews, and daily analysis of satellite images. In 1997, AVO responded to eruptive activity or suspect volcanic activity at 11 volcanic centers: Wrangell, Sanford, Shrub mud volcano, Iliamna, the Katmai group (Martin, Mageik, Snowy, and Kukak volcanoes), Chiginagak, Pavlof, Shishaldin, Okmok, Cleveland, and Amukta. Of these, AVO has real-time, continuously recording seismic networks at Iliamna, the Katmai group, and Pavlof. The phrase “suspect volcanic activity” (SVA), used to characterize several responses, is an eruption report or report of unusual activity that is subsequently determined to be normal or enhanced fumarolic activity, weather-related phenomena, or a non-volcanic event. In addition to responding to eruptive activity at Alaska volcanoes, AVO also disseminated information for the Kamchatkan Volcanic Eruption Response Team (KVERT) about the 1997 activity of 5 Russian volcanoes--Sheveluch, Klyuchevskoy, Bezymianny, Karymsky, and Alaid (SVA). This report summarizes volcanic activity and SVA in Alaska during 1997 and the AVO response, as well as information on the reported activity at the Russian volcanoes. Only those reports or inquiries that resulted in a “significant” investment of staff time and energy (here defined as several hours or more for reaction, tracking, and follow-up) are included. AVO typically receives dozens of reports throughout the year of steaming, unusual cloud sightings, or eruption rumors. Most of these are resolved quickly and are not tabulated here as part of the 1997 response record.

Alaska↗

Noise reduction in long‐period seismograms by way of array summing

Long‐period (>100 s period) seismic data can often be dominated by instrumental noise as well as local site noise. When multiple collocated sensors are installed at a single site, it is possible to improve the overall station noise levels by applying stacking methods to their traces. We look at the noise reduction in long‐period seismic data by applying the time–frequency phase‐weighted stacking method of Schimmel and Gallart (2007) as well as the phase‐weighted stacking (PWS) method of Schimmel and Paulssen (1997) to four collocated broadband sensors installed in the quiet Albuquerque Seismological Laboratory underground vault. We show that such stacking methods can improve vertical noise levels by as much as 10 dB over the mean background noise levels at 400 s period, suggesting that greater improvements could be achieved with an array involving multiple sensors. We also apply this method to reduce local incoherent noise on horizontal seismic records of the 2 March 2016 M w 7.8 Sumatra earthquake, where the incoherent noise levels at very long periods are similar in amplitude to the earthquake signal. To maximize the coherency, we apply the PWS method to horizontal data where relative azimuths between collocated sensors are estimated and compared with a simpler linear stack with no azimuthal rotation. Such methods could help reduce noise levels at various seismic stations where multiple high‐quality sensors have been deployed. Such small arrays may also provide a solution to improving long‐period noise levels at Global Seismographic Network stations.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

Insights on multistage rock avalanche behavior from runout modeling constrained by seismic inversions

Inversion of low-frequency regional seismic records to solve for a time series of bulk forces exerted on the earth by a landslide (a force-time function) is increasingly being used to infer volumes and dynamics of large, highly energetic landslides, such as rock avalanches and flowslides, and to provide calibration information on event dynamics and volumes for numerical landslide runout models. Much of the work to date using landslide runout modeling constrained by seismic data has focused on using single-phase models with frictional or velocity-weakening rheologies. Awareness of multistage landslide initiations is increasing, with discrete failures separated in time contributing to the final impact of an event. Our work utilizes a method for incorporating seismic data as a calibration constraint for landslide runout models, considering variable rheologies and different initiation conditions. This study presents a systematic examination of multiple rheologies and initiation conditions, and shows how these factors affect the force-time function derived from the landslide runout model. Our work confirms that, while rheology and fragmenting or initially coherent initiations affect the force-time function, multiple collapses separated by tens of seconds have the greatest impact on the shape and amplitude. We apply this method to the analysis of three real rock avalanches to better constrain plausible initiation conditions and rheology parameters using both seismic and field data. This study provides insights on how assumptions about the initiation dynamics of the source zone and the runout model definition can aid in the interpretation of seismic inversions for multistage rock avalanches.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth↗

Lithology and evolution of the crust-mantle boundary region in the southwestern Basin and Range Province

Mantle and crustal xenoliths from volcanic rocks in the southwestern Basin and Range province and Colorado Plateau Transition Zone reveal histories of episodic magmatism and deformation that have profoundly influenced the crustal structure of this region. Seismic transects in this area show a strongly reflective Moho of generally low relief, which, in the area of modern transects, consists of a thin zone (<2 km thick) of short reflectors. The upper mantle is transparent and has a P n of 7.8–8.0 km/s similar to much of the western United States. A lower crustal zone, 2–13 km thick, has variable internal reflectivity and a relatively low velocity of 6.6–6.8 km/s. Upper mantle peridotite xenoliths show both ductile and brittle deformational features and have structures and compositions affected by magmatic intrusion; intrusions form complex dike systems and extensive zones of grain boundary infiltration in peridotite xenoliths. Whereas melt infiltration preceded and followed ductile deformation, brittle deformation, represented by closely spaced joint systems and faults, followed ductile deformation and is related to the youngest magmatic episodes. These structural characteristics and high uppermost mantle temperature (∼1000°C) may combine to explain the relatively low P n . Alternating layers of ductily deformed and undeformed peridotites, with or without igneous intrusions, may contribute to the reflectivity of the Moho. Lower crustal xenoliths are dominantly igneous-textured pyroxenites and mafic to intermediate gabbros identical to the dikes in peridotite xenoliths. The crustal xenoliths also commonly are jointed, and in addition many show partial melting and have abundant cavities that probably were filled with CO 2 -rich fluids. These rocks are interpreted as products of underplated magmas that were fed through the mantle dike systems and may represent the lowest crustal unit identified in the seismic records. The mafic compositions and high densities of the crustal xenoliths indicate that the low velocity of the lower crust may be caused in part by fracture systems, partial melts, and high temperatures. Garnet granulite xenoliths from a locality with no mantle peridotite xenoliths probably represent crust of the region before late Miocene extension. Felsic granulite xenoliths from two localities have velocities like those of the two lower crustal units identified seismically and could be present in the modern crust as unequilibrated remnants of old crust. The preferred model for the evolution of the lower lithosphere is one in which extension affects the upper mantle as well as the crust and is overlapped in time by multiple magmatic episodes. The earliest magmatic events preceded extension, and later events accompanied and followed extension.

Arizona, California, Nevada↗

Using seismic noise correlation to determine the shallow velocity structure of the Seattle basin, Washington

Cross-correlation waveforms of seismic noise in the Seattle basin, Washington, were analyzed to determine the group velocities of surface waves and constrain the shear-wave velocity ( V S ) for depths less than about 2 kilometers (km). Twenty broadband seismometers were deployed for about 3 weeks in three dense arrays separated by about 5 km, with minimum intra-array station spacing of about 0.5 km. Cross correlations of only 9 days of noise recordings produced Green’s functions at periods of 2 to 6 seconds (s) for sites about 5 km apart. Usable noise correlations for shorter periods of 0.5 to 1.0 s were found for sites within the arrays separated by 1 to 2 km. We bandpass filtered the inter- and intra-array cross-correlation waveforms to determine Love-wave group velocities at periods of 0.5 to 6 s for paths within the Seattle basin and at 3 to 5 s for paths crossing the southern edge of the basin. We developed a non-linear inversion program to determine V S profiles that fit the observed group velocities for paths in the basin. We found that these group velocities are well fit by a variety of V S profiles, each with a distinct jump in V S at depths ranging from 0.9 to 1.3 km. This jump in V S is inferred to represent the top of bedrock. The observed group velocities are not matched by models with the top of bedrock at 0.7-km depth or shallower. The group velocities are also fit by a model with no large jumps in V S in depths less than 2.4 km. The V S profile for the middle of the basin from Stephenson and others (2017), with a depth to bedrock of 0.9 km, also adequately fits the group velocity observations, if a velocity gradient is added from 0.05- to 0.1-km depth. The results indicate that short (3-week) deployments of seismometers to record seismic noise may provide useful constraints on the V S of sedimentary basins.

Washington↗

Reconnaissance engineering geology of Sitka and vicinity, Alaska, with emphasis on evaluation of earthquake and other geologic hazards

A program to study the engineering geology of most of the larger Alaska coastal communities and to evaluate their earthquake and other geologic hazards was started following the 1964 Alaska earthquake; this report about Sitka and vicinity is a product of that program. Field-study methods were of a reconnaissance nature, and thus the interpretations in the report are subject to revision as further information becomes available. This report can provide broad geologic guidelines for planners and engineers during preparation of land-use plans. The use of this information should lead to minimizing future loss of life and property due to geologic hazards, especially during very large earthquakes. Landscape of Sitka and surrounding area is characterized by numerous islands and a narrow strip of gently rolling ground adjacent to rugged mountains; steep valleys and some fiords cut sharply into the mountains. A few valley floors are wide and flat and grade into moderate-sized deltas. Glaciers throughout southeastern Alaska and elsewhere became vastly enlarged during the Pleistocene Epoch. The Sitka area presumably was covered by ice several times; glaciers deeply eroded some valleys and removed fractured bedrock along some faults. The last major deglaciation occurred sometime before 10,000 years ago. Crustal rebound believed to be related to glacial melting caused land emergence at Sitka of at least 35 feet (10.7 m) relative to present sea level. Bedrock at Sitka and vicinity is composed mostly of bedded, hard, dense graywacke and some argillite. Beds strike predominantly northwest and are vertical or steeply dipping. Locally, bedded rocks are cut by dikes of fine-grained igneous rock. Host bedrock is of Jurassic and Cretaceous age. Eight types of surficial deposits of Quaternary age were recognized. Below altitudes of 3S feet (10.7 m), the dominant deposits are those of modern and elevated shores and deltas; at higher altitudes, widespread muskeg overlies a mantle of volcanic ash which commonly overlies glacial drift. Alluvial deposits are minor. Man-emplaced embankment fill, chiefly sandy gravel, covers many muskeg and former offshore areas; quarried blocks of graywacke are placed to form breakwaters and to edge large areas of embankment fill and modified ground. The geologic structure of the area is known only in general outlines. Most bedded Mesozoic rocks probably are part of broad northwest-trending complexes of anticlines and synclines. Intrusion of large bodies of plutonic igneous rocks occurred in Tertiary and Cretaceous time. Extensive faulting is suggested by the numerous linear to gently curving patterns of some fiords, lakes, and valleys, and by a group of Holocene volcanoes and cinder cones. Two major northwest-striking fault zones are most prominent: (1) the apparently inactive Chichagof-Sitka fault, about 2.5 miles (4.0 km) northeast of Sitka, and {2) part of the active 800-mile- (1,200-km) long Fairweather-Queen Charlotte Islands fault system, lying about 30 miles (48 km) southwest of the city. Many earthquakes have been reported as felt at Sitka since 1832, when good records were first maintained; several shocks were very strong, but none of them caused severe damage. The closest major earthquake (magnitude about 7.3) causing some damage to the city occurred July 30, 1972, and had an epicenter about 30 miles (48 km) to the southwest. Movement along the Fairweather-Queen Charlotte Islands fault system apparently caused most of the earthquakes felt at Sitka. The probability of destructive earthquakes at Sitka is unknown. The tectonics of the region and the seismic record suggest that sometime in the future an earthquake of a magnitude of about 8 and related to the Fairweather-Queen Charlotte Islands fault system probably will occur in or near the area. Effects from some nearby major earthquakes could cause substantial damage at Sitka. Eight possible effects are as follows: 1. Sudden dis

Open-File Report↗

Monitoring glacier surface seismicity in time and space using Rayleigh waves

Sliding glaciers and brittle ice failure generate seismic body and surface wave energy characteristic to the source mechanism. Here we analyze continuous seismic recordings from an array of nine short-period passive seismometers located on Bench Glacier, Alaska (USA) (61.033°N, 145.687°W). We focus on the arrival-time and amplitude information of the dominant Rayleigh wave phase. Over a 46-hour period we detect thousands of events using a cross-correlation based event identification method. Travel-time inversion of a subset of events (7% of the total) defines an active crevasse, propagating more than 200 meters in three hours. From the Rayleigh wave amplitudes, we estimate the amount of volumetric opening along the crevasse as well as an average bulk attenuation ( = 42) for the ice in this part of the glacier. With the remaining icequake signals we establish a diurnal periodicity in seismicity, indicating that surface run-off and subglacial water pressure changes likely control the triggering of these surface events. Furthermore, we find that these events are too weak (i.e., too noisy) to locate individually. However, stacking individual events increases the signal-to-noise ratio of the waveforms, implying that these periodic sources are effectively stationary during the recording period.

Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface↗

Seismic signature of a phreatic explosion: Hydrofracturing damage at Karthala volcano, Grande Comore Island, Indian Ocean

Karthala volcano is a basaltic shield volcano with an active hydrothermal system that forms the southern two-thirds of the Grande Comore Island, off the east coat of Africa, northwest of Madagascar. Since the start of volcano monitoring by the local volcano observatory in 1988, the July 11th, 1991 phreatic eruption was the first volcanic event seismically recorded on this volcano, and a rare example of a monitored basaltic shield. From 1991 to 1995 the VT locations, 0.5<Ml<4.3, show a crack shaped pattern (3 km long, 1 km wide) within the summit caldera extending at depth from -2 km to +2 km relative to sea level. This N-S elongated pattern coincides with the direction of the regional maximum horizontal stress as deduced from regional focal mechanism solutions. This brittle signature of the damage associated with the 1991 phreatic eruption is a typical pattern of the seismicity induced by controlled fluid injections such as those applied at geothermal fields, in oil and gas recovery, or for stress measurements. It suggests the 1991 phreatic eruption was driven by hydraulic fracturing induced by forced fluid flow. We propose that the extremely high LP and VT seismicity rates, relative to other effusive volcanoes, during the climax of the 1991 phreatic explosion, are due to the activation of the whole hydrothermal system, as roughly sized by the distribution of VT hypocenters. The seismicity rate in 1995 was still higher than the pre-eruption seismicity rate, and disagrees with the time pattern of thermo-elastic stress readjustment induced by single magma intrusions at basaltic volcanoes. We propose that it corresponds to the still ongoing relaxation of pressure heterogeneity within the hydrothermal system as suggested by the few LP events that still occurred in 1995. ?? Springer-Verlag 2005.

Bulletin of Volcanology↗

Material properties and triggering mechanisms of an andesitic lava dome collapse at Shiveluch Volcano, Kamchatka, Russia, revealed using the finite element method

Shiveluch volcano (Kamchatka, Russia) is an active andesitic volcano with a history of explosive activity, dome extrusion, and structural collapse during the Holocene. The most recent major (> 1 km 3 ) dome collapse occurred in November 1964, producing a ~ 1.5 km 3 debris avalanche that traveled over 15 km from the vent and triggered a phreatic explosion followed by a voluminous (~ 0.8 km 3 ) eruption of juvenile pyroclastic material. Seismic records suggest that the collapse was likely triggered by a magnitude 5.1 earthquake associated with the ascent of magma into the edifice. The geomechanical properties of the pre-1964 dome are unknown; accordingly, the mechanics of the collapse are poorly understood. This project employs numerical slope stability modeling using the finite element method to constrain probable ranges of geomechanical properties for the materials involved in the collapse, considering earthquake loading as the most likely triggering mechanism. Model results show good agreement with the 1964 collapse geometry considering Geological Strength Index and horizontal pseudo-static seismic coefficient ranges of 30–60 and 0.05–0.15 g, respectively, representing variably fractured and altered dome rocks under moderate earthquake loading, confirming that ground acceleration alone could have triggered the dome collapse. Deep-seated rotational sliding is the dominant failure mode, but local extension within the dome during failure appears to play an important role in the development of the collapse. The findings of this work allow for better forward modeling of potential future collapses, the results of which can be incorporated into regional hazard and risk assessments.

Shiveluch Volcano↗

Reconnaissance engineering geology of the Skagway area, Alaska, with emphasis on evaluation of earthquake and other geologic hazards

A program to study the engineering geology of most of the larger Alaska coastal communities and to evaluate their earthquake and other geologic hazards was started promptly after the 1964 Alaska earthquake; this report is a product of that program. Field-study methods were largely reconnaissance, and thus the interpretations in the report are subject to revision as further information becomes available. The report provides broad guidelines for planners and engineers when considering geologic factors during preparation of land-use plans. The use of this information should lead to minimizing future loss of life and property, especially during major earthquakes. Skagway was established in 1897 as a seaport near the head of Taiya Inlet fiord in the northern part of southeastern Alaska. Rugged mountains, steep-walled valleys, fiords, and numerous glaciers and icefields characterize the landscape of the area. Valley floors are narrow and most carry large streams, which end in tidewater deltas. Skagway is situated on the delta and lower valley floor of the Skagway River. Glaciers became vastly enlarged during the Pleistocene Epoch and presumably covered the area at least several times. The last major deglaciation probably occurred about 10,000 years ago. Subsequently, there was minor expansion and then partial retreat of glaciers; land rebound because of glacial melting is still going on today. Bedrock is composed predominantly of plutonic intrusive rocks, chiefly quartz diorite and granodiorite, some metamorphic rocks and a few dikes are present. Most bedrock is of Jurassic and Cretaceous age. An assortment of surficial deposits of Quaternary age form the valley bottoms and locally part of the valley walls. Thick deposits of sand and gravel have accumulated as deltas at the heads of fiords and as alluvium in the main stream valleys; deposits may be as much as S8S feet thick at Skagway. Locally, thin deposits mantle some of the steep bedrock slopes and also form some moderately to gently sloping ground. Manmade fill covers much of the top of the delta and floor of the Skagway valley. The fill is composed chiefly of gravel and sand. Quarried blocks of granodiorite are used as riprap to face river dikes and on fill areas exposed to waves of Taiya Inlet. The geologic structure of the area is imperfectly known. However, it appears that plutonic rocks intruded metamorphic rocks in Jurassic and Cretaceous time. Extensive faulting is strongly indicated by the strikingly linear or curvilinear pattern of fiords and many large and small valleys, but no major faults have been positively identified because of concealment by water or surficial deposits. Inferred faults include those coincident with the lower Skagway valley, Taiya Inlet-Taiya valley, and the Katzehin River delta-Upper Dewey Lake. Principal fault movements probably occurred in middle Tertiary time but some movement might have been in late Tertiary or possibly early Quaternary time. Local faults appear to join the Chilkat River fault, a segment of the important Denali fault system, one of the major tectonic elements of southeastern Alaska. One fault segment of this system shows evidence of movement within the last several hundred years. Southeastern Alaska's other major fault system is the active Fairweather-Queen Charlotte Islands fault system'near the coast of the Pacific Ocean. This fault system passes to within about 100 miles of Skagway. At its northwest end the fault system merges with the Chugach-St. Elias fault. One hundred twenty-two earthquakes, some of them strong, have been felt or possibly felt at Skagway during the years 1898 through 1969. The closest large earthquake (magnitude about 8) causing some damage at Skagway occurred July 10, 1958. Its epicenter was about 100 miles to the southwest. Other earthquakes, as much as 150 miles away, also have caused slight to moderate damage. The closest instrumentally recorded earthquake (magnitude 6) had its epicenter about 30 miles to the west of Skagway. Most earthquakes in southeastern Alaska have occurred southwest, west, or northwest of Skagway, near the coast of the Pacific Ocean. They appear to be related to movement along the Fairweather-Queen Charlotte Islands fault system or the Chugach-St. Elias fault. Most have had their epicenters offshore. Some earthquakes may be related to movement at depth along the Denali fault system. The probability of destructive earthquakes at Skagway is unknown because the tectonics of the region have not been studied in detail. However, on the basis of the seismic record and limited tectonic evidence, we suggest that sometime in the future an earthquake of at least magnitude 6 probably will occur very close to the city, a magnitude 7 earthquake might occur in the general area, and an earthquake of magnitude 8 probably will occur at some distance to the southwest, west, or northwest. Effects from nearby large earthquakes could cause extensive damage at Skagway. Nine principal effects are considered. 1. Surface displacement. Displacement of ground caused by fault movement would affect only structures built athwart the fault. However, a sudden tectonic uplift of land of as much as a few feet might affect a wide area and necessitate extensive dredging and wharf rebuilding. On the other hand, a subsidence of several feet would allow tidewater to reach inland and flood part of the harbor facilities and the business district. 2. Ground shaking. Because intensity of ground shaking during earthquakes largely depends on type and water content of the geologic material being shaken, the geologic materials are separated into three categories. Those considered susceptible to strongest shaking are grouped into category 1 (containing materials that are saturated, loose, and of medium- to fine-grain sizes); those of intermediate susceptibility in category 2; and those least susceptible to shaking in category 3. 3. Compaction of some medium-grained sediments during strong earthquake shaking could cause local settling of alluvial and deltaic surfaces. Also, some manmade fills near the harbor might undergo marked differential settling. 4. Liquefaction of saturated beds of uniform, fine sand commonly occurs during strong earthquakes. Few such beds, however, are positively identified at Skagway; some may occur within deltaic and alluvial deposits. If present, these beds might liquefy and cause local settling or trigger landslides. 5. Ejection of water-sediment mixtures from earthquake-induced fractures or from point sources, plus some associated ground subsidence, is common during major earthquakes where saturated sand and fine gravel deposits are confined beneath generally impermeable beds. Some alluvial and deltaic deposits at Skagway probably are susceptible to these processes. Locally, ejecta might cover roads and areas between buildings and fill low-lying areas. Associated ground fracturing might damage roadways, foundations of buildings, and other facilities. 6. Subaerial and subaqueous slides occur frequently during earthquakes. Saturated loose sediments on steep slopes are especially susceptible to sliding. During a major earthquake, surficial deposits forming such slopes along the southeast side of the Skagway valley probably would be subject to sliding or earthflowing on an extensive scale. Some sliding might extend onto the valley floor and damage or destroy buildings and part of the railroad. Rockfalls would be numerous and locally very large rockslides might occur. Subaqueous sliding of the Skagway delta is potentially the most damaging of earthquake effects. Sliding may have occurred there during the earthquake of September 16, 1899; any future major earthquake close to the city would cause extensive sliding, possibly triggered in part by liquefaction. If shaking continued for several minutes, successive slides might progressively remove large portions of the delta and allow extensive land spreading and fracturing of Skagway River alluvium as much as several thousand feet landward from the shoreline. 7. Glacier surfaces commonly receive extensive snow avalanches and rockslides during seismic shaking. In the Skagway area, glaciers may be disrupted at their margins, and resulting blocked streams might form lakes in a few places. If these lakes drained suddenly, downstream areas would he flooded. No long-term effects, such as glacier expansion, are expected. 8. Ground- and surface-water levels often are affected during and after strong earthquake shaking. At Skagway, ground-water levels probably would be lowered, but there would be no permanent change in water quality. Earthquake-triggered landslides could dam the Skagway River; the sudden failure of the dams might cause severe flooding. 9. Waves generated by earthquakes include tsunamis, seiche waves, and waves caused by subaerial and submarine sliding and tectonic displacement of land. Damage in the Skagway area would depend on wave height, tidal stage, and warning time. Some waves triggered by subaerial and subaqueous slides have a strong possibility of reaching heights of as much as 60 feet--or possibly even higher. Tsunamis from the open ocean must travel 160 miles of fiords before reaching Skagway, which allows sufficient time for appraisal of expectable wave height and, if necessary, evacuation of the harbor area and other low-lying ground. Geologic hazards other than those hazards associated with earthquakes include nonearthquake-induced subaerial and subaqueous slides, floods, and slow uplift (rebound) of land. Landslides of moderate size are known to have occurred from time to time during heavy rains such as those of September 1967. Subaqueous slides happen intermittently during the normal growth of deltas. Submarine cables on the floor of northern Taiya Inlet presumably were broken by such slides on September 10, 1927. Flooding by the Skagway River has inundated parts of the city many times, usually during heavy rains in the fall. Two floods were reported to have been caused by the sudden draining of glacier-dammed lakes. Dikes protect the city from many smaller floods, but heightening and broadening is needed to give full protection. Slow land uplift at Skagway, because of regional glacioisostatic rebound, averages 0.059 foot per year. On this basis, the shoreline theoretically shifted seaward 500 feet and the harbor shoaled 4.4 feet between 1897 and 1972. It is recommended that future geologic study of the Skagway area include: detailed geologic mapping and collection of data on geologic materials, joints, faults, and slope stability; complete evaluation of earthquake probability and response of materials to shaking; and collection and evaluation of periodic soundings and sediment data from Skagway and Taiya deltas to assist in forecasting the stability of the delta front.

Alaska↗

Relative seismic velocity variations correlate with deformation at Kilauea volcano

Seismic noise interferometry allows the continuous and real-time measurement of relative seismic velocity through a volcanic edifice. Because seismic velocity is sensitive to the pressurization state of the system, this method is an exciting new monitoring tool at active volcanoes. Despite the potential of this tool, no studies have yet comprehensively compared velocity to other geophysical observables on a short-term time scale at a volcano over a significant length of time. We use volcanic tremor (~0.3 to 1.0 Hz) at Kīlauea as a passive source for interferometry to measure relative velocity changes with time. By cross-correlating the vertical component of day-long seismic records between ~230 station pairs, we extract coherent and temporally consistent coda wave signals with time lags of up to 120 s. Our resulting time series of relative velocity shows a remarkable correlation between relative velocity and the radial tilt record measured at Kīlauea summit, consistently correlating on a time scale of days to weeks for almost the entire study period (June 2011 to November 2015). As the summit continually deforms in deflation-inflation events, the velocity decreases and increases, respectively. Modeling of strain at Kīlauea suggests that, during inflation of the shallow magma reservoir (1 to 2 km below the surface), most of the edifice is dominated by compression—hence closing cracks and producing faster velocities—and vice versa. The excellent correlation between relative velocity and deformation in this study provides an opportunity to understand better the mechanisms causing seismic velocity changes at volcanoes, and therefore realize the potential of passive interferometry as a monitoring tool.

Hawaii↗

Rockslides on the Terminus of "Jokulsargilsjokull", Southern Iceland

On 10 November 1976, a 1.5 km × 0.5 km rockslide deposit on the surface of an unnamed outlet glacier of Mýrdalsjökull ice cap, southern Iceland, was observed from an aircraft. Deposits from two different rockslides, including the larger one observed on 10 November 1976, were visible on a 10 September 1978 aerial photograph of the unnamed outlet glacier. An analysis of vertical and oblique aerial photographs, Landsat images, and seismological records was used to establish the time of occurrence of the larger rockslide to a 30-day period between 9 September 1972 and 9 October 1972. The trigger mechanisms for the rockslide activity appear to have been heavy precipitation prior to the event and the decrease of buttressing mass at the base of the valley wall resulting from recession of the glacier (decrease in width and thickness). The recession led to instability of highly altered hyaloclastite bedrock, talus, and morainal materials on an oversteepened slope. An earthquake as a trigger mechanism was considered to be unlikely from a thorough review of seismic records. Measurements of the downglacier movement of the larger rockslide deposit give an average speed of the glacier as 30±3 m a-1 between September/October 1972 and 10 September 1978. From measurements of aerial photographs taken on 10 September 1978 and 4 September 1984, the average speed of the glacier increased to 45 m a-1 during this 6-year interval. Although the terminus of the unnamed outlet glacier had not yet begun to advance in 1986, it had undergone thickening since 1978.

Geografiska Annaler, Series A: Physical Geography↗

Effect of fixing earthquake depth in ShakeAlert algorithms on performance for intraslab earthquakes

We investigate whether assuming a fixed shallow depth in the ShakeAlert network‐based earthquake early warning system is sufficient to produce accurate ground‐motion based alerts for intraslab earthquakes. ShakeAlert currently uses a fixed focal depth of 8 km to estimate earthquake location and magnitude. This is an appropriate way to reduce computational costs without compromising alert accuracy in California, where earthquakes typically occur on shallow crustal faults. In the Pacific Northwest (PNW), however, the most common moderate‐magnitude events occur within the subducting Juan de Fuca slab at depths between ∼35 and 65 km. Using a dataset of seismic recordings from 37 M w 4.5+ intraslab earthquakes from the PNW and Chile, we replay events through the Earthquake Point‐Source Integrated Code and eqInfo2GM algorithms to estimate source parameters and compute modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) alert threshold contours. Each event is replayed twice—once using a fixed 8 km depth and a second time using the actual catalog earthquake depth. For each depth scenario, we analyze MMI III and IV contours using various performance metrics to determine the number of correctly alerted sites and measure warning times. We determine that shallow depth replays are more likely to produce errors in location estimates of greater than 50 km if the event is located outside of a seismic network. When located within a seismic network, shallow and catalog depth replays have similar epicenter estimates. Results show that applying catalog earthquake depth does not improve the accuracy of magnitude estimates or MMI alert threshold contours, or increase warning times. We conclude that using a fixed shallow earthquake depth for intraslab earthquakes will not significantly impact alert accuracy in the PNW.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

Eruptive history of Mount Katmai, Alaska

Mount Katmai has long been recognized for its caldera collapse during the great pyroclastic eruption of 1912 (which vented 10 km away at Novarupta in the Valley of Ten Thousand Smokes), but little has previously been reported about the geology of the remote ice-clad stratovolcano itself. Over several seasons, we reconnoitered all parts of the edifice and sampled most of the lava flows exposed on its flanks and caldera rim. The precipitous inner walls of the 1912 caldera remain too unstable for systematic sampling; so we provide instead a photographic and interpretive record of the wall sequences exposed. In contrast to the several andesite-dacite stratovolcanoes nearby, products of Mount Katmai range from basalt to rhyolite. Before collapse in 1912, there were two overlapping cones with separate vent complexes and craters; their products are here divided into eight sequences of lava flows, agglutinates, and phreatomagmatic ejecta. Latest Pleistocene and Holocene eruptive units include rhyodacite and rhyolite lava flows along the south rim; a major 22.8-ka rhyolitic plinian fall and ignimbrite deposit; a dacite-andesite zoned scoria fall; a thick sheet of dacite agglutinate that filled a paleocrater and draped the west side of the edifice; unglaciated leveed dacite lava flows on the southeast slope; and the Horseshoe Island dacite dome that extruded on the caldera floor after collapse. Pre-collapse volume of the glaciated Katmai edifice was &sim;30 km 3 , and eruptive volume is estimated to have been 57&plusmn;13 km 3 . The latter figure includes &sim;40&plusmn;6 km 3 for the edifice, 5&plusmn;2 km 3 for off-edifice dacite pyroclastic deposits, and 12&plusmn;5 km 3 for the 22.8-ka rhyolitic pyroclastic deposits. To these can be added 13.5 km 3 of magma that erupted at Novarupta in 1912, all or much of which is inferred to have been withdrawn from beneath Mount Katmai. The oldest part of the edifice exposed is a basaltic cone, which gave a 40 Ar/ 39 Ar plateau age of 89 &plusmn; 25 ka. The seismic record of caldera collapse includes 14 earthquakes of magnitude 6.0&ndash;7.0. By combining the times of earthquakes, the hours of downwind plinian-fall episodes from Novarupta, and the stratigraphic record of hydrothermal explosion breccia and phreatic mud layers ejected around the caldera rim and intercalated within the Novarupta pumice-fall sequence, it can be inferred that collapse began in the 11th hour of the 60-h-long eruption and continued fitfully for 3.5 days. Several big landslides and pumiceous debris flows shaken loose by the collapse-related seismicity are bracketed in time by their levels of intercalation within the Novarupta pumice-fall sequence. An intracaldera lake was &sim;10 m deep by 1916, drained away in 1923, and has since deepened progressively to &sim;250 m today. Compositionally, products of Mount Katmai represent an ordinary medium-K arc array, both tholeiitic and calcalkaline, that extends from 51.6% to 72.3% SiO 2 . Values of 87 Sr/ 86 Sr range from 0.70335 to 0.70372, correlating loosely with fractionation indices. The 5&ndash;6 km 3 of continuously zoned andesite-dacite magma (58%&ndash;68% SiO 2 ) that erupted at Novarupta in 1912 was withdrawn from beneath Mount Katmai and bears close compositional affinity with products of that edifice, not with pre-1912 products of the adjacent Trident cluster. Evidence is presented that the 7&ndash;8 km 3 of high-silica rhyolite (77% SiO 2 ) released in 1912 is unlikely to have been stored under Novarupta or Trident. Pre-eruptive contiguity with the andesite-dacite reservoir is suggested by (1) eruption of &sim;3 km 3 of rhyolite magma first, followed by mutual mingling in fluctuating proportions; (2) thermal and redox continuity of the whole zoned sequence despite the wide compositional gap; (3) Nd, Sr, O isotopic, and rare earth element (REE) affinities of the whole array; (4) compositional continuity of the nearly aphyric rhyolite with the glass (melt) phase of the phenocryst-rich dacite; and (5) phase-equilibrium experiments that indicate similar shallow pre-eruptive storage depths (3&ndash;6 km) for rhyolite, dacite, and andesite.

Alaska↗

Evolving magma storage conditions beneath Mount St. Helens inferred from chemical variations in melt inclusions from the 1980-1986 and current (2004-2006) eruptions

Major element, trace element, and volatile concentrations in 187 glassy melt inclusions and 25 groundmass glasses from the 1980-86 eruption of Mount St. Helens are presented, together with 103 analyses of touching FE-Ti oxide pairs from the same samples. These data are used to evaluate the temporal evolution of the magmatic plumbing system beneath the volcano during 1980-86 and so provide a framework in which to interpret analyses of melt inclusions from the current (2004-2006) eruption. Major and trace element concentrations of all melt inclusions lie at the high SiO 2 end of the data array defined by eruptive products of the late Quaternary age from Mount St. Helens. For several major and trace elements, the glasses define a trend that is oblique to the whole-rock trend, indicating that different mineral assemblages were responsible for the two trends. The whole-rock trend can be ascribed to differentiation of hydrous basaltic parents in a deep-seated magma reservoir, probably at depths great enough to stabilize garnet. In contrast, the glass trends were generated by closed-system crystallization of the phenocryst and microlite mineral assemblages at low pressures. The dissolved H 2 O content of the melt inclusions from 1980-86, as measured by the ion microprobe, ranges from 0 to 6.7 wt. percent, with the highest values obtained from the plinian phase of May 18, 1980. Water contents decrease with increasing SiO 2 , consistent with decompression-driven crystallization. Preliminary data for dissolved CO 2 in melt inclusions from the May 18 plinian phase from August 7, 1980, indicate that X H 2 O in a vapor phase was approximately constant at 0.80, irrespective of H 2 O content, suggestive of closed-system degassing with a high bubble fraction or gas streaming through the subvolcanic system. Temperature and f O 2 estimates for touching Fe-Ti oxides show evidence for heating during crystallization owing to release of latent heat. Consequently, magmas with the highest microlite crystallinities record the highest temperatures. Magmas also become progressively reduced during ascent and degassing, probably as a result of redox equilibria between exsolving S-bearing gases and magmas. The lowest temperature oxides have f O 2 &asymp; NNO, similar to high-temperature fumarole gases from the volcano. The temperature and f O 2 of the magma tapped by the plinian phase of May 18, 1980, are 870-875&deg;C and NNO+0.8, respectively. The dissolved volatile contents of the melt inclusions have been used to calculate sealing pressures; that is, the pressure at which chemical exchange between inclusion and matrix melt ceased. These are greatest for the May 18 plinian magma (120 to 320 MPa); lower pressures are recorded by samples of the preplinian cryptodome and by all post-May 18 magmas. Magma crystallinity, calculated from melt-inclusion Rb contents, is negatively correlated with sealing pressure, consistent with decompression crystallization. Elevated contents of Li in melt inclusions from the cryptodome and post-May 18 samples are consistent with transfer of Li in a magmatic vapor phase from deeper parts of the magma system to magma stored at shallower levels. The Li enrichment attains its maximum extent at ~150 MPa, which is ascribed to separation of a single vapor phase into H 2 O-rich gas and dense Li-rich brine at the top of the magma column. There are striking correlations between melt-inclusion chemistry and monitoring data for the 1980-86 eruption. Dissolved SO 2 contents of melt inclusions from any given event, multiplied by the mass of magma erupted during that event, correlate with the measured flux of SO 2 at the surface, suggesting that magma degassing and melt-inclusion sealing are closely related in time and space. Textural and chemical evidence indicates that melt inclusions became effectively sealed (physically or kinetically) shortly before eruption. Thus by converting pressure to depth using a density model and edifice-loading algorithm for the volcano, changing depths of magma extraction with time can be tracked and compared to the seismic record. The plinian eruption of May 18, 1980, involved magma stored 5-11 km below sea level; this is inferred to be the subvolcanic magma chamber. The preceding eruptions, including the May 18, 1980, blast, involved magma withdrawal from the cryptodome and conduit down to 5 km below sea level. Subsequent 1980 eruptions tapped magma down to depths of &le;10 km below sea level. Tapping of magma stored deeper than 2 km below sea level stopped abruptly at the end of 1980, coincident with the onset of extensive shallow seismicity and a change from explosive to effusive eruption style from 1981 to 1986. Overall, the 1980-86 eruption is consistent with the evisceration of a thin, vertically extensive body of magma extending from 5 to at least 11 km below sea level and connected to the surface by a thin conduit. In the absence of sustained high magma-supply rates from depth, decompression crystallization of magma ascending through the system leads eventually to plugging of the conduit. The current eruption of Mount St. Helens shares some similarities with the 1981-86 dome-building phase of the previous eruption, in that there is extensive shallow seismicity and extrusion of highly crystalline material in the form of a sequence of flows and spines. Melt inclusions from the current eruption have low H 2 O contents, consistent with magma extraction from shallow depths. Highly enriched Li in melt inclusions suggests that vapor transport of Li is a characteristic feature of Mount St. Helens. Melt inclusions from the current eruption have subtly different trace-element chemistry from all but one of the 1980-86 melt inclusions, with steeper rareearth-element (REE) patterns and low U, Th, and high-fieldstrength elements (HFSE), indicating addition of a new melt component to the magma system. It is anticipated that increasing involvement of the new melt component will be evident as the current eruption proceeds.

Washington↗

Asymmetric radiation of seismic waves from an atoll: nuclear tests in French Polynesia

Seismic records of nuclear tests detonated in the Mururoa Atoll in French Polynesia show large unpredicted arrivals 2.2 and 4.5 seconds (X1 and X2) after the P-wave at the Australian Warramunga Array. These arrivals are not observed at the Canadian Yellowknife Array. X1 and X2 are also absent on Warramunga Array recordings of tests carried out at the Fangataufa Atoll situated 40 km SSE of Mururoa. Array analysis shows that X1 and X2 are produced within the source area. The layered crustal structure of the atoll, significant local inhomogeneities, and focusing effects due to the elongated shape and the steep flanks of the Mururoa Atoll are most likely responsible for X1 and X2. The form of Mururoa (28 × 10 km) and its East-West orientation is due to its location on the Austral Fracture Zone (AFZ). The Fangataufa Atoll on the other hand is almost circular (10 km diameter) and is unaffected by the dynamics along the AFZ. Our observations demonstrate that complicated structures in the source area can significantly alter the wave field at teleseismic distances and produce a large magnitude (m b ) bias. A better understanding of the exact cause of these unusual seismic observations will only become possible, if the coordinates of the tests and information on the detailed 3-D structure of the atolls are released.

Geophysical Research Letters↗