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U.S. Geological Survey climate science plan—Future research directions

Executive Summary Climate is the primary driver of environmental change and is a key consideration in defining science priorities conducted across all mission areas in the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Recognizing the importance of climate change to its future research agenda, the USGS’s Climate Science Steering Committee requested the development of a Climate Science Plan to identify future research directions. Subject matter experts from across the Bureau formed the USGS Climate Science Plan Writing Team, which convened in September 2022 to identify and outline the major climate science topics of future concern and develop an integrated approach to conducting climate science in support of the USGS and U.S. Department of the Interior missions. The resulting USGS Climate Science Plan identifies three major priorities under which USGS climate science proceeds: (1) characterize climate change and associated impacts, (2) assess climate change risks and develop approaches to mitigate climate change, and (3) provide climate science tools and support. The Climate Science Plan identifies 12 specific goals to achieve the outcomes of the three priorities. Conduct long-term, broad-scale, and multidisciplinary measurements and monitoring and research activities to define, quantify, and predict the impacts of climate change on natural and human systems; Provide leadership to standardize measuring, monitoring, reporting, and verifying greenhouse gas emissions, lateral carbon fluxes, and carbon sinks across lands managed by the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI); Provide science capacity, training, tools, and infrastructure to Tribal partners; support Tribal-led science initiatives; Conduct climate change research in partnership with the broader climate science community; Develop improved data synthesis methods through collaborative and open science across mission areas and between the USGS and agency partners; Translate climate change impacts into risk assessments in support of risk management strategies; Develop new and improved risk assessments, models, and approaches for mitigating climate change, adapting to its impacts, and reducing uncertainties; design early warning systems for risk mitigation; Investigate climate change mitigation strategies and create decision science support tools to inform climate change mitigation and adaptation; Provide a framework that facilitates knowledge co-production needed to inform policy decisions; Provide access to USGS data and information through novel integration and visualization approaches; Build capacity within USGS and DOI through development of scientific training curricula; and Coordinate science and capacity building efforts broadly across the Federal Government. To achieve these goals, the USGS Climate Science Plan also outlines climate science guidelines—key elements for conducting climate-based research—as well as emerging opportunities to support successful climate science. The USGS Climate Science Plan provided in this circular will guide future research priorities and science-support investments, as well as continued development of the climate workforce for decades to come, ensuring that the USGS continues to serve as one of the Nation’s leading climate science agencies.

Circular↗

Yellowstone grizzly bear investigations: Annual report of the Interagency Grizzly Bear Study Team, 2001

The contents of this Annual Report summarize results of monitoring and research from the 2001 field season. The report also contains a summary of nuisance grizzly bear ( Ursus arctos horribilis ) management actions. In addition to our normal monitoring, we completed an array of studies addressing the potential impacts of winter recreation on denning grizzly bears. This research was in response to a lawsuit filed against the Gallatin National Forest and subsequent need to develop a biological assessment addressing effects of snowmobile use on grizzly bears (Chemy 2001). Research results were also used by the National Park Service for a biological assessment and winter use plan (U.S. Department of the Interior 2001). The Interagency Grizzly Bear Study Team (IGBST) was able to use existing data collected from collared bears to address several issues and data needs for both agencies. Denning chronology (Haroldson et al. 2002), denning areas (Podruzny et al. 2002), and grizzly distribution (Schwartz et al. 2002) were all addressed. Information from these studies was presented at the International Association for Bear Research and Management (IBA) in Jackson Hole, Wyoming in 2001, and all 3 manuscripts have been officially accepted for publication in the journal Ursus . Abstracts are attached to this report (Appendices A, B. and C). Additionally, members of the study team participated in a workshop held by the National Park Service to develop monitoring protocols addressing the impacts of snowmobiles on wildlife (Graves and Reams 2001). The study team has also been working on issues associated with counts of unduplicated females with cubs-of-the-year (COY). These counts are used to establisha minimum population size, which is then used to establish mortality thresholds for the Recovery Plan (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service [USFWS) 1993). Efforts by the Study Team to calculate more statistically sound estimates of population size have been underway for sometime. Eberhardt and Knight (1996) applied a Peterson-type capturemark-recapture estimator to unduplicated counts, and Boyce et al. (1999) recommended a maximum likelihood method. These methods assumed equal sightability of families, which was unrealistic for the Yellowstone population. Consequently, Boyce et al. (2001) recommended using a negative binomial distribution but found that they obtained reasonable results only when the coefficient of variation among sightings was assumed to be constant overtime. This assumption is also difficult to justify. Recent work by the study team (Keating et al. 2002) evaluated the application of 7 nonparametric estimators to assess their performance in determining the number of females with COY in a given year. This work identified 2 estimators that performed well using Monte Carlo simulations over a range of sampling conditions deemed plausible for the Yellowstone population: Chao's estimator (Chao 1984) and the sample coverage estimator (Chao and Lee 1992, Lee and Chao 1994). This work was presented at the IBA meeting in Jackson and the manuscript has been accepted in the journal Ursus . An abstract of this work is attached to this annual report (Appendix D). We are currently refining the application of these techniques to expand the predicted number of females with COY into a total population estimate. We anticipate completion of that work in 2002 or 2003.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗

Results of analyses of the fungicide Chlorothalonil, its degradation products, and other selected pesticides at 22 surface-water sites in five Southern states, 2003-04

In accordance with the mission of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Toxic Substances Hydrology Program, a pesticide study was conducted during 2003–04 to determine the occurrence of the fungicide chlorothalonil and its degradation products at 22 surface-water sites in five Southern States. Water-quality samples were collected during the peanut-growing season (June–September) in 2003. During the peanut-growing season in 2004, samples were collected after large storms. An analytical method was developed at the USGS Organic Geochemistry Research Laboratory in Lawrence, Kansas, to measure chlorothalonil and its degradation products by liquid chromatography/mass spectrometry (LC/MS). Chlorothalonil was detected in 4 of the 113 surface-water samples. The primary degradation product of chlorothalonil, 4-hydroxy-chlorothalonil, was detected in 26 of the 113 samples with concentrations ranging from 0.002 to 0.930 microgram per liter. The chlorothalonil degradation products, 1-amide-4-hydroxy-chorothalonil and 1,3-diamide-chlorothalonil, were detected in one water sample each at 0.020 and 0.161 microgram per liter, respectively. The USGS Methods and Research Development Group, Lakewood, Colorado, developed a custom method for chlorothalonil using gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS) in an effort to achieve a lower laboratory reporting level (LRL) than the USGS National Water-Quality Laboratory (NWQL) schedule 2060, which analyzes the compound chlorothalonil at a LRL of 0.035 µg/L. The group succeeded in achieving a lower GC/MS reporting level of 0.01 µg/L. Chlorothalonil was detected in 5 of 68 water samples analyzed using the custom GC/MS method, whereas chlorothalonil was detected in 2 of 21 water samples analyzed using NWQL schedule 2060. In addition to analysis of chlorothalonil and its degradation products, samples were analyzed using the USGS NWQL schedules 2001 and 2060 for about 114 pesticides and their degradation products. Samples also were analyzed for dissolved organic carbon, suspended sediment, and percentage of silt- and clay-sized particles. Overall, it was found that chlorothalonil was detected only infrequently and at relatively low concentrations. Chlorothalonil’s major degradation product, 4-hydroxy-chlorothalonil, was detected most frequently, occurred generally at higher concentrations in water samples than did the parent fungicide, and the data from this study reaffirmed that it is the dominant degradation product of chlorothalonil in the peanut-growing environment.

Open-File Report↗

Annual compilation and analysis of hydrologic data for urban studies in the Bryan, Texas, metropolitan area, 1969

Hydrologic investigations of urban areas in Texas were begun by the U.S. Geological Survey in 1954. These studies are now in progress in Austin, Houston, Dallas, Dallas County, Fort Worth, San Antonio, and Bryan. Hydrologic investigations of urban areas in Texas were begun by the U.S. Geological Survey in 1954. These studies are now in progress in Austin, Houston, Dallas, Dallas County, Fort Worth, San Antonio, and Bryan. 1. To determine, on the basis of historical data and hydrologic analyses, the magnitude and frequency of floods. 2. To document and define the areal extent of floods of greater than ordinary magnitude. 3. To determine the effect of urban development on flood peaks and volume. 4. To provide applied research facilities for studies at Texas A & M University at College Stations. This report, the first in a series of reports to be published annually, is primarily applicable to objectives 2, 3, and 4. The report presents the basic hydrologic data collected in two study areas during the 1969 water year (October 1, 1968, to September 30, 1969) and basic hydrologic data collected during part of the 1968 water year (April 5, 1968, to September 30, 1968). The locations of the two basins within the study area, Burton Creek and Hudson Creek, are shown on figure 1.

Texas↗

Oil-shale resource investigations of the U.S. Geological Survey

The decade of the 1970's so far has been marked by a sharply increased dependence by the United States on foreign sources of energy. Although this dependence had been growing for the previous 20 years, it was made clearly visible to the American public by the Arab oil embargo of 1973. Since then, energy has remained a topic of public discussion and concern. The current imbalance between U.S. energy supply and demand and the generally recognized need to increase the domestic production of energy make it appropriate to review our present knowledge of U.S. mineral fuel resources--coal, oil, natural gas, oil shale, and uranium--which in 1975 provided 95 percent of the energy produced in the United States. These conditions also warrant a description of the research that is being done to improve our understanding of these resources, and to determine the effects on the environment of their development. This is one of four reports on the energy resource investigations being conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey to assess the Nation's coal, oil and gas, oil shale, and uranium and thorium resources. Two other reports provide information about the Geological Survey's programs for assessing the petroleum resources of the U.S. Outer Continental Shelf and for identifying the environmental factors that could affect their development. The description of the Geological Survey's oil-shale investigations is presented in this report in the context of the underlying socio-economic problem of expanding the domestic production of oil and gas while maintaining acceptable environmental standards. This orientation toward a national mission characterizes each segment of the Geological Survey's energy resources and marine geology programs. Readers who want information about the individual projects that comprise the Oil-Shale Program will find it in the appendices, which also include a bibliography. It is hoped that this report will give scientists, science administrators, and policy makers, both in government and in the private sector, as well as the general public, a better understanding of the relation of oil shale resources to the Nation's requirements for energy and of the importance of a carefully planned research program of resource assessment and environmental research on this future energy commodity.

Open-File Report↗

Renewable energy and wildlife conservation

The renewable energy sector is rapidly expanding and diversifying the power supply of the country. Yet, as our Nation works to advance renewable energy and to conserve wildlife, some conflicts arise. To address these challenges, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is conducting innovative research and developing workable solutions to reduce impacts of renewable energy production on wildlife.

Fact Sheet↗

Precipitation-runoff modeling system; user's manual

The concepts, structure, theoretical development, and data requirements of the precipitation-runoff modeling system (PRMS) are described. The precipitation-runoff modeling system is a modular-design, deterministic, distributed-parameter modeling system developed to evaluate the impacts of various combinations of precipitation, climate, and land use on streamflow, sediment yields, and general basin hydrology. Basin response to normal and extreme rainfall and snowmelt can be simulated to evaluate changes in water balance relationships, flow regimes, flood peaks and volumes, soil-water relationships, sediment yields, and groundwater recharge. Parameter-optimization and sensitivity analysis capabilites are provided to fit selected model parameters and evaluate their individual and joint effects on model output. The modular design provides a flexible framework for continued model system enhancement and hydrologic modeling research and development. (Author 's abstract)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Climate change and indigenous peoples: A synthesis of current impacts and experiences

A growing body of literature examines the vulnerability, risk, resilience, and adaptation of indigenous peoples to climate change. This synthesis of literature brings together research pertaining to the impacts of climate change on sovereignty, culture, health, and economies that are currently being experienced by Alaska Native and American Indian tribes and other indigenous communities in the United States. The knowledge and science of how climate change impacts are affecting indigenous peoples contributes to the development of policies, plans, and programs for adapting to climate change and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. This report defines and describes the key frameworks that inform indigenous understandings of climate change impacts and pathways for adaptation and mitigation, namely, tribal sovereignty and self-determination, culture and cultural identity, and indigenous community health indicators. It also provides a comprehensive synthesis of climate knowledge, science, and strategies that indigenous communities are exploring, as well as an understanding of the gaps in research on these issues. This literature synthesis is intended to make a contribution to future efforts such as the 4th National Climate Assessment, while serving as a resource for future research, tribal and agency climate initiatives, and policy development.

General Technical Report↗

Potential effects of energy development on environmental resources of the Williston Basin in Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota

About this volume The Williston Basin, which includes parts of Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota in the United States, has been a leading domestic oil and gas producing area. To better understand the potential effects of energy development on environmental resources in the Williston Basin, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bureau of Land Management, and in support of the needs identified by the Bakken Federal Executive Group (consisting of representatives from 13 Federal agencies and Tribal groups), began work to synthesize existing information on science topics to support management decisions related to energy development. This report is divided into four chapters (A–D). Chapter A provides an executive summary of the report and principal findings from chapters B–D. Chapter B provides a brief compilation of information regarding the history of energy development, physiography, climate, land use, demographics, and related studies in the Williston Basin. Chapter C synthesizes current information about water resources, identifies potential effects from energy development, and summarizes water resources research and information needs in the Williston Basin. Chapter D summarizes information about ecosystems, species of conservation concern, and potential effects to those species from energy development in the Williston Basin.

Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota↗

Third special report of the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory of Hawaii National Park and the Hawaiian Volcano Research Association: Ash formations of the island Hawaii

The purpose of the study was to determine the areal extent of the various volcanic ash formations, to describe them petrographically and to develop means of discriminating them. The ash formations, long known in a general way, had been only casually observed by geologists. Their interpretation and separation from other surficial materials has been much retarded by great differences in the degree of weathering and appearance of the same material in arid and in humid parts of the island. The wide distribution of ash formations in contrast to lava flows led to the hope that they could be discriminated and correlated and used as key horizons to work out the major events in the geologic history. It was believed that critical study of the effects of weathering on the ash formations, together with systematic tracing from regions of typical expression to others where the features were less typical and more obscure, would throw light on the stratigraphic relations and historical significance of the various units.

Hawaii↗

Salamander chytrid fungus ( Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans ) in the United States—Developing research, monitoring, and management strategies

The recently (2013) identified pathogenic chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium salamandrivoran s ( Bsal ), poses a severe threat to the distribution and abundance of salamanders within the United States and Europe. Development of a response strategy for the potential, and likely, invasion of Bsal into the United States is crucial to protect global salamander biodiversity. A formal working group, led by Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative (ARMI) scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Patuxent Wildlife Research Center, Fort Collins Science Center, and Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, was held at the USGS Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis in Fort Collins, Colorado, United States from June 23 to June 25, 2015, to identify crucial Bsal research and monitoring needs that could inform conservation and management strategies for salamanders in the United States. Key findings of the workshop included the following: (1) the introduction of Bsal into the United States is highly probable, if not inevitable, thus requiring development of immediate short-term and long-term intervention strategies to prevent Bsal establishment and biodiversity decline; (2) management actions targeted towards pathogen containment may be ineffective in reducing the long-term spread of Bsal throughout the United States; and (3) early detection of Bsal through surveillance at key amphibian import locations, among high-risk wild populations, and through analysis of archived samples is necessary for developing management responses. Top research priorities during the preinvasion stage included the following: (1) deployment of qualified diagnostic methods for Bsal and establishment of standardized laboratory practices, (2) assessment of susceptibility for amphibian hosts (including anurans), and (3) development and evaluation of short- and long-term pathogen intervention and management strategies. Several outcomes were achieved during the workshop, including development of an organizational structure with working groups for a Bsal Task Force, creation of an initial influence diagram to aid in identifying effective management actions in the face of uncertainty, and production of a list of potential management actions and key research uncertainties. Additional products under development include a Bsal Strategic Action plan, an emergency response plan, a monitoring and surveillance program, a standardized diagnostic approach, decision models for natural resource agencies, and a reporting database for salamander mortalities. This workshop was the first international meeting to address the threat of Bsal to salamander populations in the United States, with more than 30 participants from U.S. conservation and resource management agencies (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, U.S. Forest Service, U.S. Department of Defense, U.S. National Park Service, and Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies) and academic research institutions in Australia, the Netherlands, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

Open-File Report↗

The rising tide of ocean diseases: Unsolved problems and research priorities

New studies have detected a rising number of reports of diseases in marine organisms such as corals, molluscs, turtles, mammals, and echinoderms over the past three decades. Despite the increasing disease load, microbiological, molecular, and theoretical tools for managing disease in the world's oceans are under-developed. Review of the new developments in the study of these diseases identifies five major unsolved problems and priorities for future research: (1) detecting origins and reservoirs for marine diseases and tracing the flow of some new pathogens from land to sea; (2) documenting the longevity and host range of infectious stages; (3) evaluating the effect of greater taxonomic diversity of marine relative to terrestrial hosts and pathogens; (4) pinpointing the facilitating role of anthropogenic agents as incubators and conveyors of marine pathogens; (5) adapting epidemiological models to analysis of marine disease.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗

Bats and wind energy: a literature synthesis and annotated bibliography

Turbines have been used to harness energy from wind for hundreds of years. However, with growing concerns about climate change, wind energy has only recently entered the mainstream of global electricity production. Since early on in the development of wind-energy production, concerns have arisen about the potential impacts of turbines to wildlife; these concerns have especially focused on the mortality of birds. Despite recent improvements to turbines that have resulted in reduced mortality of birds, there is clear evidence that bat mortality at wind turbines is of far greater conservation concern. Bats of certain species are dying by the thousands at turbines across North America, and the species consistently affected tend to be those that rely on trees as roosts and most migrate long distances. Turbine-related bat mortalities are now affecting nearly a quarter of all bat species occurring in the United States and Canada. Most documented bat mortality at wind-energy facilities has occurred in late summer and early fall and has involved tree bats, with hoary bats ( Lasiurus cinereus ) being the most prevalent among fatalities. This literature synthesis and annotated bibliography focuses on refereed journal publications and theses about bats and wind-energy development in North America (United States and Canada). Thirty-six publications and eight theses were found, and their key findings were summarized. These publications date from 1996 through 2011, with the bulk of publications appearing from 2007 to present, reflecting the relatively recent conservation concerns about bats and wind energy. The idea for this Open-File Report formed while organizing a joint U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service/U.S. Geological Survey "Bats and Wind Energy Workshop," on January 25-26, 2012. The purposes of the workshop were to develop a list of research priorities to support decision making concerning bats with respect to siting and operations of wind-energy facilities across the United States. This document was intended to provide background information for the workshop participants on what has been published on bats and wind-energy issues in North America (United States and Canada).

Open-File Report↗

Science needs for determining the effects of climate change on harmful algal blooms in the southeastern United States

The Southeastern United States has many lakes, streams, and reservoirs that serve as important drinking water sources with recreational, agricultural, and ecological uses. However, harmful algal blooms (HABs) are becoming more common in these waters, causing health issues for humans and animals. HABs have been listed as a contaminant of emerging concern, and the magnitude, frequency, and duration of HABs appear to be increasing at the global scale. While it is well known that nutrients stimulate algae growth, it is not clear how climate change and other parameters stimulate the development of toxin production by HABs. The scientific literature describes parameters, such as storm occurrence, temperature, dissolved metals, erosion of soils, increasing length of growing season, discharge, and hydroperiod, that may affect algae growth and toxin production. Climate and hydrologic models address many of the physical and environmental parameters that influence HABs, but no climate models directly address HABs. This report compiles information from the existing literature pertaining to HABs and the modeling and forecasting of HABS. This compilation is done through the incorporation of climate change models. HAB research that involves climate change will require multiple disciplines that bring together ecologists, hydrologists, climatologists, engineers, economists, and new technology. Resource managers could use geographic data about the occurrence and distribution of HABs to develop models that identify waterbodies more vulnerable to HAB events. Development of such models will require teams capable of integrating biological, chemical, and physical factors. Model development will require additional research that can resolve anthropogenic and climate-related environmental factors to identify trends in freshwater HABs. The complexity and interconnectedness of the parameters that influence HAB occurrences will make model development challenging and require rigorous regional calibration.

Open-File Report↗

Summary of radiometric anomalies in Alaska

The gamma ray anomalies and their related geological settings shown on this map are a compilation from the NURE reconnaissance surveys (LKB Resources Inc., 1978a, 1978b, 1978c, 1979; Texas Instruments, Inc., 1977, 1978, U.S. Research and Development, 1976; Western Geophysical Company of American, 1980.)

Alaska↗