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USGS2017

Simulation of groundwater and surface-water flow in the upper Deschutes Basin, Oregon

This report describes a hydrologic model for the upper Deschutes Basin in central Oregon developed using the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) integrated Groundwater and Surface-Water Flow model (GSFLOW). The upper Deschutes Basin, which drains much of the eastern side of the Cascade Range in Oregon, is underlain by large areas of permeable volcanic rock. That permeability, in combination with the large annual precipitation at high elevations, results in a substantial regional aquifer system and a stream system that is heavily groundwater dominated. The upper Deschutes Basin is also an area of expanding population and increasing water demand for public supply and agriculture. Surface water was largely developed for agricultural use by the mid-20th century, and is closed to additional appropriations. Consequently, water users look to groundwater to satisfy the growing demand. The well‑documented connection between groundwater and the stream system, and the institutional and legal restrictions on streamflow depletion by wells, resulted in the Oregon Water Resources Department (OWRD) instituting a process whereby additional groundwater pumping can be permitted only if the effects to streams are mitigated, for example, by reducing permitted surface-water diversions. Implementing such a program requires understanding of the spatial and temporal distribution of effects to streams from groundwater pumping. A groundwater model developed in the early 2000s by the USGS and OWRD has been used to provide insights into the distribution of streamflow depletion by wells, but lacks spatial resolution in sensitive headwaters and spring areas. The integrated model developed for this project, based largely on the earlier model, has a much finer grid spacing allowing resolution of sensitive headwater streams and important spring areas, and simulates a more complete set of surface processes as well as runoff and groundwater flow. In addition, the integrated model includes improved representation of subsurface geology and explicitly simulates the effects of hydrologically important fault zones not included in the previous model. The upper Deschutes Basin GSFLOW model was calibrated using an iterative trial and error approach using measured water-level elevations (water levels) from 800 wells, 144 of which have time series of 10 or more measurements. Streamflow was calibrated using data from 21 gage locations. At 14 locations where measured flows are heavily influenced by reservoir operations and irrigation diversions, so called “ naturalized ” flows, with the effects of reservoirs and diversion removed, developed by the Bureau of Reclamation, were used for calibration. Surface energy and moisture processes such as solar radiation, snow accumulation and melting, and evapotranspiration were calibrated using national datasets as well as data from long-term measurement sites in the basin. The calibrated Deschutes GSFLOW model requires daily precipitation, minimum and maximum air temperature data, and monthly data describing groundwater pumping and artificial recharge from leaking irrigation canals (which are a significant source of groundwater recharge). The calibrated model simulates the geographic distribution of hydraulic head over the 5,000 ft range measured in the basin, with a median absolute residual of about 53 ft. Temporal variations in head resulting from climate cycles, pumping, and canal leakage are well simulated over the model area. Simulated daily streamflow matches gaged flows or calculated naturalized flows for streams including the Crooked and Metolius Rivers, and lower parts of the mainstem Deschutes River. Seasonal patterns of runoff are less well fit in some upper basin streams. Annual water balances of streamflow are good over most of the model domain. Model fit and overall capabilities are appropriate for the objectives of the project. The integrated model results confirm findings from other studies and models indicating that most streamflow in the upper Deschutes Basin comes directly from groundwater discharge. The integrated model provides additional insights about the components of streamflow including direct groundwater discharge to streams, interflow, groundwater discharge to the land surface (Dunnian flow), and direct runoff (Hortonian flow). The new model provides improved capability for exploring the timing and distribution of streamflow capture by wells, and the hydrologic response to changes in other external stresses such as canal operation, irrigation, and drought. Because the model uses basic meteorological data as the primary input; and simulates surface energy and moisture balances, groundwater recharge and flow, and all components of streamflow; it is well suited for exploring the hydrologic response to climate change, although no such simulations are included in this report. The model was developed as a tool for future application; however, example simulations are provided in this report. In the example simulations, the model is used to explore the influence of well location and geologic structure on stream capture by pumping wells. Wells were simulated at three locations within a 12-mi area close to known groundwater discharge areas and crossed by a regional fault zone. Simulations indicate that the magnitude and timing of stream capture from pumping is largely controlled by the geographic location of the wells, but that faults can have a large influence on the propagation of pumping stresses.

Oregon↗

USGS2020

Research, monitoring, and evaluation of emerging issues and measures to recover the Snake River Fall Chinook Salmon ESU: January 2019 - December 2019

The portion of the Snake River fall Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha evolutionary significant unit (ESU) that spawns upstream of Lower Granite Dam transitioned from low to high abundance during 19922019 in association with U.S. Endangered Species Act recovery efforts and other federally mandated actions. This annual report focuses on (1) numeric and habitat use responses by natural- and hatchery-origin spawners, (2) phenotypic and numeric responses by natural-origin juveniles, and (3) use of a small unmanned aerial system (sUAS) to search for fall Chinook salmon redds and carcasses. Spawners have located and used most of the available spawning habitat and that habitat is gradually approaching redd capacity. Timing of spawning and fry emergence have been relatively stable, but effects of density dependence are evident in juvenile life stages. Apparent abundance of juvenile fall Chinook salmon has increased and we noted the following responses: parr dispersal from riverine rearing habitat into Lower Granite Reservoir has become earlier; growth rate (g/d) and dispersal size of parr declined; and passage timing of smolts from the two Snake River reaches has become earlier and downstream movement rate faster. These findings coupled with stock-recruitment analyses presented in this report provide evidence for density-dependence in the Snake River reaches and in Lower Granite Reservoir that was influenced by the expansion of the recovery program. The long-term goal is to use this information in a comprehensive modeling effort to conduct action-effectiveness and uncertainty research and to inform Fish Population, Hydrosystem, Harvest, Hatchery, and Predation and Invasive Species Management Research, Monitoring, and Evaluation (RM&E) progams. In 2019, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) shifted survey efforts in the Snake River toward deepwater redd searches and fish collection for parentage-based tagging (PBT) analyses because all unmanned aerial system (UAS) activities were suspended by the Department of the Interior two weeks into the spawning season. We counted 81 deepwater redds at 17 of the 29 sites surveyed. Redd depths averaged 3.6 m. We collected a total of 123 live fall Chinook salmon from 16 unique geographic locations that spanned 55 river kilometers. Forty-six fish were recovered at Eureka Bar (rkm 307.1) and Kirby Creek (rkm 352.0), which accounted for 37% of all collected fish in 2019. Most (73 fish) post-spawned salmon were collected from early to mid-November just after peak spawning. A summary of 2019 PBT results can be found in Appendix A.1. In 2019, we PIT tagged subyearling fall Chinook salmon in both the Snake and Clearwater rivers. In the Snake River, we tagged 410 fish with 8-mm tags, 666 fish with 9-mm tags, and 1,082 fish 12-mm tags. During seining, our recapture rate of previously tagged fish was slightly higher in the lower reach at 11.4% than in the upper reach at 10.6%. In an effort to represent more of the population through tagging, we tagged fish as small as 45 mm with 8-mm tags at one site in the upper reach. This allowed us to increase the number of fish tagged in that reach by 17.7%. An additional 10.6% of collected fish could have been tagged in the lower reach had we used 8-mm tags in that reach. In the Clearwater River, we tagged 2,451 subyearlings and recaptured 260 (10.6%) fish in the river and 66 fish (48 tagged by USGS, 18 tagged by the Nez Perce Tribe) at Lower Granite Dam during October to provide information for growth estimation. Within riverine habitats, growth in both length and mass were higher for fish tagged with 8-mm tags than with 9- and 12-mm tags. Estimated growth in length and mass of subyearlings was higher in Lower Granite Reservoir than in riverine habitats. We adapted existing statistical models used to estimate abundance of steelhead and spring/summer Chinook salmon for fall Chinook salmon passing Lower Granite Dam. Run reconstruction efforts to date at Lower Granite Dam for Snake River fall Chinook salmon have provided estimates of the number of returning adults but with no measure of uncertainty about the estimates. The objective of this study was to estimate the abundance, with uncertainty, of marked (coded-wire tagged CWT or adipose clipped) and unmarked fall Chinook salmon past Lower Granite Dam for return years 20032018. Estimating uncertainty is important for informing the state-space life cycle model (Chapter 5), which incorporates both observation and process uncertainty into parameter estimates. The coefficient of variation (CV) for log- abundance was 1.0% or less in all years, whereas the CV for abundance averaged 4.2% and ranged from 1.4% to 10.4% among years. Over the past five years, we have been developing a two-stage state-space life-cycle model for naturally produced fall Chinook salmon in the Snake River basin. Initial efforts focused on generating juvenile and adult abundance estimates, with estimates of uncertainty, for informing the life-cycle model. In this report we 1) describe the statistical life-cycle model and improvements made since our last report to the Independent Scientific Advisory Board (ISAB), 2) estimate the effects of covariates on key demographic parameters, and 3) use the fitted life- cycle model to simulate population trajectories under hydrosystem actions proposed for the NOAA 2020 Biological Opinion (hereafter, the Proposed Action). Major recent advancements to the model include revised juvenile abundance estimates, the ability to estimate smolt-to-adult return rates (SAR) separately for subyearling and yearling juvenile fall Chinook salmon, and improvements in the observation model for estimating age, sex, and outmigration structure in adult returns. We examined the effect of numerous environmental, hydrosystem, and ocean covariates on key demographic parameters but only a few covariates were significant. For the adult-to-juvenile transition, we found the maximum weekly river flows during the winter egg- incubation period had a significant negative effect on the juvenile outmigrant abundance from that brood year. For subyearling outmigrants, percent spill during the summer had a significant positive effect on SAR and the mean winter PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) had a significant negative effect on SAR. For yearling outmigrants, NPGO (North Pacific Gyre Oscillation) had a significant positive effect on SAR. We used the fitted model to simulate population trajectories under the Proposed Action, and the median 10-year geometric mean abundance was 8,222 female spawners (interquartile range: 2,592 26,714). Overall, the probability of quasi- extinction (probability of falling below 50 female spawners for 4 consecutive years) was low, with only 1.6% of all simulations having a quasi-extinction probability >0.95. Although quasi-extinction probability was low, we did not assess the additional effect of climate change, which would be expected to increase quasi-extinction probability.

Idaho, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2021

Hydrogeology and model-simulated groundwater availability in the Salt Fork Red River aquifer, southwestern Oklahoma, 1980–2015

The 1973 Oklahoma Water Law (82 OK Stat § 82-1020.5) requires that the Oklahoma Water Resources Board (OWRB) conduct hydrologic investigations of the State’s groundwater basins to support a determination of the maximum annual yield for each groundwater basin (hereinafter referred to as an “aquifer”). The maximum annual yield allocated per acre of land is known as the equal-proportionate-share (EPS) pumping rate. At present (2021), the OWRB has not yet established a maximum annual yield and EPS pumping rate for the Salt Fork Red River aquifer. To provide updated information to the OWRB that could support evaluation and determination of an appropriate maximum annual yield, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the OWRB, conducted a hydrologic investigation and evaluated the effects of potential groundwater withdrawals on groundwater availability in the Salt Fork Red River aquifer. The Salt Fork Red River aquifer in Greer, Harmon, and Jackson Counties of southwestern Oklahoma is composed of about 274.5 square miles of alluvium and terrace deposits associated with the Salt Fork Red River. The mean annual recharge rate to the Salt Fork Red River aquifer for the period 1980–2015 was estimated to be about 2.94 inches per year, or 10.0 percent of the mean annual precipitation for the same period (29.4 inches per year). This 1980–2015 mean annual recharge rate is equivalent to a mean annual recharge rate of about 38,000 acre-feet per year (acre-ft/yr) for the Salt Fork Red River aquifer excluding about 19,764 acres comprising the Mulberry Creek and Horse Creek terraces. The mean annual recharge rates upgradient and downgradient from USGS streamgage 07300500 Salt Fork Red River at Mangum, Okla. (hereinafter referred to as the “Mangum gage”), apportioned by aquifer area (41.5 and 58.5 percent, respectively), were about 16,000 and 22,000 acre-ft/yr, respectively. Mean annual groundwater use for the study period (1980–2015) was 3,532.7 acre-ft/yr; about 77 percent of that groundwater use was for irrigation, and about 23 percent was for public supply. Most groundwater use for irrigation was associated with wells in the Martha terrace. A hydrogeologic framework was developed for the Salt Fork Red River aquifer and included a definition of the aquifer extent and potentiometric surface, as well as a description of the textural and hydraulic properties of aquifer materials. The hydrogeologic framework was used in the construction of the numerical groundwater-flow model of the Salt Fork Red River aquifer described in this report. A conceptual model for the Salt Fork Red River aquifer that reasonably represents the groundwater-flow system was developed to constrain the construction and calibration of the numerical model. The conceptual-model water budget estimated mean annual inflows to, and outflows from, the Salt Fork Red River aquifer for the period 1980–2015 and included a subaccounting of mean annual inflows and outflows for the portions of the aquifer that were upgradient and downgradient from the Mangum gage. The numerical groundwater-flow model of the Salt Fork Red River aquifer was constructed by using MODFLOW-2005 with the Newton formulation solver. The model of the Salt Fork Red River aquifer was spatially discretized into 1,050 rows, 1,125 columns, about 170,000 active cells measuring 200 by 200 feet (ft), and a single convertible layer. The model was temporally discretized into 432 monthly transient stress periods (each with two time steps to improve model stability). An initial steady-state stress period represented mean annual inflows to, and outflows from, the aquifer and produced a solution that was used as the initial condition for subsequent transient stress periods as well as some groundwater-availability scenarios. The model was calibrated to water-table-altitude observations at selected wells and base-flow observations at selected streamgages. The simulated saturated thickness of the Salt Fork Red River aquifer was determined by subtracting the altitude of the aquifer base from the simulated water-table altitude at the end of the numerical-model period (2015). The simulated saturated thickness was more than 75 ft in a paleochannel in the Dodson terrace near the Texas border. The mean aquifer thickness (sum of saturated and unsaturated) was 49.62 ft, and the mean saturated thickness was 28.55 ft. A simulated mean transmissivity of 1,024 feet squared per day was computed from the calibrated hydraulic conductivity and saturated thickness of each cell. The simulated available water in storage at the end of the numerical-model period (2015) was 526,117 acre-feet (acre-ft); about 42 percent of that total was available upgradient from the Mangum gage, and about 58 percent of that total was available downgradient from the Mangum gage (including the Mangum terrace). Three types of groundwater-availability scenarios were run using the calibrated numerical model. These scenarios were used to (1) estimate the EPS pumping rate that ensures a minimum 20-, 40-, and 50-year life of the aquifer, (2) quantify the potential effects of projected well withdrawals on groundwater storage over a 50-year period, and (3) simulate the potential effects of a hypothetical 10-year drought on base flow and groundwater storage. The 20-, 40-, and 50-year EPS pumping rates under normal recharge conditions were about 0.51, 0.48, and 0.48 acre-foot per acre per year, respectively. Given the 155,929-acre modeled aquifer area, these rates correspond to annual yields of about 78,800, 74,900, and 74,700 acre-ft/yr, respectively. For the 20-year EPS scenario, decreasing and increasing recharge by 10 percent resulted in a 6-percent change in the EPS pumping rate in both cases; for the 40- and 50-year EPS scenarios, decreasing and increasing recharge by 10 percent resulted in a 7-percent change in the EPS pumping rate in both cases. Projected 50-year pumping scenarios were used to simulate the effects of selected well withdrawal rates on groundwater storage of the Salt Fork Red River aquifer and base flows in the Salt Fork Red River. The effects of well withdrawals were evaluated by quantifying differences in groundwater storage and base flow in four 50-year scenarios, which applied (1) no groundwater pumping, (2) mean pumping rates for the study period (1980–2015), (3) 2015 pumping rates, and (4) increasing demand pumping rates at simulated wells. The increasing demand pumping rates assumed a cumulative 20.4-percent increase in pumping over 50 years based on 2010–60 demand projections for southwestern Oklahoma. Groundwater storage after 50 years with no pumping was 535,000 acre-ft, or 8,900 acre-ft (1.7 percent) greater than the initial groundwater storage; this groundwater storage increase is equivalent to a mean water-table-altitude increase of 0.48 ft. Groundwater storage after 50 years of pumping at the mean rate for the study period (1980–2015) was 519,900 acre-ft, or 6,200 acre-ft (1.2 percent) less than the initial groundwater storage; this groundwater storage decrease is equivalent to a mean water-table-altitude decline of 0.34 ft. Groundwater storage at the end of the 50-year period with 2015 pumping rates was 513,100 acre-ft, or 13,000 acre-ft (2.5 percent) less than the initial storage; this groundwater storage decrease is equivalent to a mean water-table-altitude decline of 0.71 ft. Groundwater storage at the end of the 50-year period with increasing demand pumping rates was 509,700 acre-ft, or 16,500 acre-ft (3.1 percent) less than the initial storage; this groundwater storage decrease is equivalent to a mean water-table-altitude decline of 0.89 ft. A hypothetical 10-year drought scenario was used to simulate the effects of a prolonged period of reduced recharge on groundwater storage. The period January 1983–December 1992 was chosen as the simulated drought period. Drought effects were quantified by comparing the results of the drought scenario to those of the calibrated numerical model (no drought) at the end of the simulated drought period (1992). To simulate the hypothetical drought, recharge in the calibrated numerical model was reduced by 50 percent during the simulated drought period (1983–92). Upstream inflows from the Salt Fork Red River, Turkey Creek, and Bitter Creek were reduced by 75 percent. Groundwater storage at the end of the drought period (1992) was 479,200 acre-ft, or 53,200 acre-ft (10.0 percent) less than the groundwater storage of the calibrated numerical model at the end of the drought period. This decrease in groundwater storage is equivalent to a mean water-table-altitude decline of 2.9 ft. At the end of the 10-year hypothetical drought period, simulated base flows at the Mangum gage and USGS streamgage 07301110 Salt Fork Red River near Elmer, Okla., had decreased by about 80 and 70 percent, respectively.

Oklahoma↗

USGS2008

User Guide and Documentation for Five MODFLOW Ground-Water Modeling Utility Programs

This report documents five utility programs designed for use in conjunction with ground-water flow models developed with the U.S. Geological Survey's MODFLOW ground-water modeling program. One program extracts calculated flow values from one model for use as input to another model. The other four programs extract model input or output arrays from one model and make them available in a form that can be used to generate an ArcGIS raster data set. The resulting raster data sets may be useful for visual display of the data or for further geographic data processing. The utility program GRID2GRIDFLOW reads a MODFLOW binary output file of cell-by-cell flow terms for one (source) model grid and converts the flow values to input flow values for a different (target) model grid. The spatial and temporal discretization of the two models may differ. The four other utilities extract selected 2-dimensional data arrays in MODFLOW input and output files and write them to text files that can be imported into an ArcGIS geographic information system raster format. These four utilities require that the model cells be square and aligned with the projected coordinate system in which the model grid is defined. The four raster-conversion utilities are * CBC2RASTER, which extracts selected stress-package flow data from a MODFLOW binary output file of cell-by-cell flows; * DIS2RASTER, which extracts cell-elevation data from a MODFLOW Discretization file; * MFBIN2RASTER, which extracts array data from a MODFLOW binary output file of head or drawdown; and * MULT2RASTER, which extracts array data from a MODFLOW Multiplier file.

Techniques and Methods↗

USGS2014

Simulation of groundwater flow and the interaction of groundwater and surface water in the Willamette Basin and Central Willamette subbasin, Oregon

Full appropriation of tributary streamflow during summer, a growing population, and agricultural needs are increasing the demand for groundwater in the Willamette Basin. Greater groundwater use could diminish streamflow and create seasonal and long-term declines in groundwater levels. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Oregon Water Resources Department (OWRD) cooperated in a study to develop a conceptual and quantitative understanding of the groundwater-flow system of the Willamette Basin with an emphasis on the Central Willamette subbasin. This final report from the cooperative study describes numerical models of the regional and local groundwater-flow systems and evaluates the effects of pumping on groundwater and surface‑water resources. The models described in this report can be used to evaluate spatial and temporal effects of pumping on groundwater, base flow, and stream capture. The regional model covers about 6,700 square miles of the 12,000-square mile Willamette and Sandy River drainage basins in northwestern Oregon—referred to as the Willamette Basin in this report. The Willamette Basin is a topographic and structural trough that lies between the Coast Range and the Cascade Range and is divided into five sedimentary subbasins underlain and separated by basalts of the Columbia River Basalt Group (Columbia River basalt) that crop out as local uplands. From north to south, these five subbasins are the Portland subbasin, the Tualatin subbasin, the Central Willamette subbasin, the Stayton subbasin, and the Southern Willamette subbasin. Recharge in the Willamette Basin is primarily from precipitation in the uplands of the Cascade Range, Coast Range, and western Cascades areas. Groundwater moves downward and laterally through sedimentary or basalt units until it discharges locally to wells, evapotranspiration, or streams. Mean annual groundwater withdrawal for water years 1995 and 1996 was about 400 cubic feet per second; irrigation withdrawals accounted for about 80 percent of that total. The upper 180 feet of productive aquifers in the Central Willamette and Southern Willamette subbasins produced about 70 percent of the total pumped volume. In this study, the USGS constructed a three-dimensional numerical finite-difference groundwater-flow model of the Willamette Basin representing the six hydrogeologic units, defined in previous investigations, as six model layers. From youngest to oldest, and [generally] uppermost to lowermost they are the: upper sedimentary unit, Willamette silt unit, middle sedimentary unit, lower sedimentary unit, Columbia River basalt unit, and basement confining unit. The high Cascade unit is not included in the groundwater-flow model because it is not present within the model boundaries. Geographic boundaries are simulated as no-flow (no water flowing in or out of the model), except where the Columbia River is simulated as a constant hydraulic head boundary. Streams are designated as head-dependent-flux boundaries, in which the flux depends on the elevation of the stream surface. Groundwater recharge from precipitation was estimated using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), a watershed model that accounts for evapotranspiration from the unsaturated zone. Evapotranspiration from the saturated zone was not considered an important component of groundwater discharge. Well pumping was simulated as specified flux and included public supply, irrigation, and industrial pumping. Hydraulic conductivity values were estimated from previous studies through aquifer slug and permeameter tests, specific capacity data, core analysis, and modeling. Upper, middle and lower sedimentary unit horizontal hydraulic conductivity values were differentiated between the Portland subbasin and the Tualatin, Central Willamette, and Southern Willamette subbasins based on preliminary model results.

Oregon↗

USGS2009

Hypothetical modeling of redox conditions within a complex ground-water flow field in a glacial setting

This report describes a modeling approach for studying how redox conditions evolve under the influence of a complex ground-water flow field. The distribution of redox conditions within a flow system is of interest because of the intrinsic susceptibility of an aquifer to redox-sensitive, naturally occurring contaminants - such as arsenic - as well as anthropogenic contaminants - such as chlorinated solvents. The MODFLOW-MT3D-RT3D suite of code was applied to a glacial valley-fill aquifer to demonstrate a method for testing the interaction of flow patterns, sources of reactive organic carbon, and availability of electron acceptors in controlling redox conditions. Modeling results show how three hypothetical distributions of organic carbon influence the development of redox conditions in a water-supply aquifer. The distribution of strongly reduced water depends on the balance between the rate of redox reactions and the capability of different parts of the flow system to transmit oxygenated water. The method can take account of changes in the flow system induced by pumping that result in a new distribution of reduced water.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2020

Grade and tonnage model for tungsten skarn deposits—2020 update

This report presents an updated grade and tonnage model for tungsten skarn deposits. As a critical component of the U.S. Geological Survey’s three-part form of quantitative mineral resource assessment, robust grade and tonnage models are essential to transforming mineral resource assessments into effective tools for decision makers. Using the best data available at the time of publication, this represents the first attempt in nearly 30 years to capture current mineral inventory and cumulative production data for worldwide tungsten skarn deposits. The accuracy of modern assessments of undiscovered tungsten skarn resources is highly influenced by the use of current data on the distribution of the grades and tonnages of well-explored tungsten skarn deposits. Primary factors affecting the changes to these distributions in the model presented here compared with those of previous models are the inclusion of important deposits, especially those in China that had been omitted in previous models; expanded mineral inventories resulting from increased exploration; and changes to international reporting standards. These factors have resulted in dramatic increases in average ore tonnage and slight decreases in the average grade of tungsten skarn deposits compared with previous models. Large increases in contained metal are observed among many of the individual deposits incorporated within this model that were also included in previous tungsten skarn grade and tonnage models. This report also provides recommendations for input parameters related to grade and tonnage models to use with software tools designed to facilitate the three-part form of quantitative mineral resource assessments.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS1982

Habitat Suitability Index Models: Southern kingfish

The habitat use information and habitat suitability index (HSI) models in this report on southern kingfish are intended for use in impact assessment and habitat management. The models were developed from a review and synthesis of existing information and are scaled to produce an index of habitat suitability between 0 (unsuitable habitat) and 1 (optimally suitable habitat). Assumptions used to transform habi tat use information into HSI model s and methods for measuring model variables are described.

FWS/OBS↗

USGS2000

USGS mineral deposit models

This CD-ROM publication is a compilation of 29 previously published mineral deposit model and related reports of the USGS. It in part reflects a history of mineral deposit model development within the USGS. Model types presented include descriptive, grade-tonnage, geoenvironmental, and geophysical. These models generally compile the geologic, geochemical, and geophysical characteristics of various types of metallic and nonmetallic mineral deposits. The models list attributes intended as guides for resource and geoenvironmental studies and for mineral exploration. They are presented using the lithologic-tectonic environmental mineral deposit classification scheme originally developed by Cox and Singer (1986).

Data Series↗

USGS2025

Modeling floods, sediment entrainment, and downstream debris flows from hypothetical breaches of the blockage at Spirit Lake, Washington

This report describes a modeling investigation by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) of hazards in the Toutle and Cowlitz River valleys posed by hypothetical outburst floods from Spirit Lake, Washington. A massive debris avalanche resulting from the collapse of Mount St. Helens’ north flank during the May 18, 1980, eruption blocked Spirit Lake’s natural outlet into the North Fork Toutle River. Lacking a natural outlet, subsequent runoff in the Spirit Lake watershed contributed to a rising lake level, elevating the potential for debris-dam breaching or catastrophic failure. The influence of highly erodible bed sediment in the upper North Fork Toutle River on downstream flood and debris-flow dynamics and extent is assessed in this study. Simulations of clear-water (non-erosive) outburst floods were used as a baseline and compared to erosive flows that entrain large volumes of material and transition into debris flows along their flow path, revealing the influence of entrainment on hazard extent. Clear-water floods were modeled with the shallow water equations. Erosive flows were modeled with a two-phase granular fluid model that accommodates mobilization and incorporation of sediment from the bed into the overlying flow and resultant changes in flow rheology across a wide range of solid concentrations, from dilute suspensions to dense-granular debris flows. Entrainment of bed material was found to substantially increase the total flow volume (total volume of transported water and sediment is approximately 150 percent of the water volume for non-erosive flows). Erosive flows are shown to exhibit higher flow-front speeds and faster downstream arrival times than non-erosive flows, consistent with volume amplification effects near the actively mobilizing flow front. However, the larger total volume of transported material does not necessarily lead to an enhancement of total volume throughput (cumulative discharge) or inundation extent (total affected area) for all locations along the entire flow path; while entrainment leads to the displacement of a larger volume of material overall, much of this dislocated material (water and sediment) deposits upstream from the distal extent of the flows. These results are consistent with energetic considerations of initial potential energy and granular shear resistance.

Washington↗

USGS1995

Steady-state simulation of ground-water flow in the Blaine Aquifer, southwestern Oklahoma and northwestern Texas

A generalized finite-difference model was prepared for the Blaine aquifer in southwestern Oklahoma and northwestern Texas. This report releases the model for use and modification. A grid of 1-square-mile nodes was established over the area, with 1,030 of the nodes actively simulated in the model. The steady-state model simulation used a uniform recharge rate of 2.2 inches per year and three values of hydraulic conductivity: 80, 19, and 4.7 feet per day. About 44 percent of the recharge is discharged as pumpage from wells, and the remainder is discharged to rivers and creeks within and adjacent to the study area.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2018

Simulated hydrologic response to climate change during the 21st century in New Hampshire

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New Hampshire Department of Environmental Services and the Department of Health and Human Services, has developed a hydrologic model to assess the effects of short- and long-term climate change on hydrology in New Hampshire. This report documents the model and datasets developed by using the model to predict how climate change will affect the hydrologic cycle and provide data that can be used by State and local agencies to identify locations that are vulnerable to the effects of climate change in areas across New Hampshire. Future hydrologic projections were developed from the output of five general circulation models for two future climate scenarios. The scenarios are based on projected future greenhouse gas emissions and estimates of land-use and land-cover change within a projected global economic framework. An evaluation of the possible effect of projected future temperature on modeling of evapotranspiration is summarized to address concerns regarding the implications of the future climate on model parameters that are based on climate variables. The results of the model simulations are hydrologic projections indicating increasing streamflow across the State with large increases in streamflow during winter and early spring and general decreases during late spring and summer. Wide spatial variability in changes to groundwater recharge is projected, with general decreases in the Connecticut River Valley and at high elevations in the northern part of the State and general increases in coastal and lowland areas of the State. In general, total winter snowfall is projected to decrease across the State, but there is a possibility of increasing snow in some locations, particularly during November, February, and March. The simulated future changes in recharge and snowfall vary by watershed across the State. This means that each area of the State could experience very different changes, depending on topography or other factors. Therefore, planning for infrastructure and public safety needs to be flexible in order to address the range of possible outcomes indicated by the various model simulations. The absolute magnitude and timing of the daily streamflows, especially the larger floods, are not considered to be reliably simulated compared to changes in frequency and duration of daily streamflows and changes in accumulated monthly and seasonal streamflow volumes. Simulated current and future streamflow, groundwater recharge, and snowfall datasets include simulated data derived from the five general circulation models used in this study for a current reference time period and two future time periods. Average monthly streamflow time series datasets are provided for 27 streamgages in New Hampshire. Fourteen of the 27 streamgages associated with daily streamflow time series showed a good calibration. Average monthly groundwater recharge and snowfall time series for the same reference time period and two future time periods are also provided for each of the 467 hydrologic response units that compose the model.

New Hampshire↗

USGS2016

Relations between continuous real-time physical properties and discrete water-quality constituents in the Little Arkansas River, south-central Kansas, 1998-2014

Water from the Little Arkansas River is used as source water for artificial recharge of the Equus Beds aquifer, one of the primary water-supply sources for the city of Wichita, Kansas. The U.S. Geological Survey has operated two continuous real-time water-quality monitoring stations since 1995 on the Little Arkansas River in Kansas. Regression models were developed to establish relations between discretely sampled constituent concentrations and continuously measured physical properties to compute concentrations of those constituents of interest. Site-specific regression models were originally published in 2000 for the near Halstead and near Sedgwick U.S. Geological Survey streamgaging stations and the site-specific regression models were then updated in 2003. This report updates those regression models using discrete and continuous data collected during May 1998 through August 2014. In addition to the constituents listed in the 2003 update, new regression models were developed for total organic carbon. The real-time computations of water-quality concentrations and loads are available at http://nrtwq.usgs.gov . The water-quality information in this report is important to the city of Wichita because water-quality information allows for real-time quantification and characterization of chemicals of concern (including chloride), in addition to nutrients, sediment, bacteria, and atrazine transported in the Little Arkansas River. The water-quality information in this report aids in the decision making for water treatment before artificial recharge.

Kansas↗

USGS2013

Base of the upper layer of the phase-three Elkhorn-Loup groundwater-flow model, north-central Nebraska

The Elkhorn and Loup Rivers in Nebraska provide water for irrigation, recreation, hydropower production, aquatic life, and municipal water systems for the Omaha and Lincoln metropolitan areas. Groundwater is another important resource in the region and is extracted primarily for agricultural irrigation. Water managers of the area are interested in balancing and sustaining the long-term uses of these essential surface-water and groundwater resources. Thus, a cooperative study was established in 2006 to compile reliable data describing hydrogeologic properties and water-budget components and to improve the understanding of stream-aquifer interactions in the Elkhorn and Loup River Basins. A groundwater-flow model was constructed as part of the first two phases of that study as a tool for understanding the effect of groundwater pumpage on stream base flow and the effects of management strategies on hydrologically connected groundwater and surface-water supplies. The third phase of the study was implemented to gain additional geologic knowledge and update the ELM with enhanced water-budget information and refined discretization of the model grid and stress periods. As part of that effort, the ELM is being reconstructed to include two vertical model layers, whereas phase-one and phase-two simulations represented the aquifer system using one vertical model layer. This report presents a map of and methods for developing the elevation of the base of the upper model layer for the phase-three ELM. Digital geospatial data of elevation contours and geologic log sites used to estimate elevation contours are available as part of this report.

Nebraska↗

USGS2013

Model documentation for relations between continuous real-time and discrete water-quality constituents in the North Fork Ninnescah River upstream from Cheney Reservoir, south-central Kansas, 1999--2009

Cheney Reservoir in south-central Kansas is one of the primary sources of water for the city of Wichita. The North Fork Ninnescah River is the largest contributing tributary to Cheney Reservoir. The U.S. Geological Survey has operated a continuous real-time water-quality monitoring station since 1998 on the North Fork Ninnescah River. Continuously measured water-quality physical properties include streamflow, specific conductance, pH, water temperature, dissolved oxygen, and turbidity. Discrete water-quality samples were collected during 1999 through 2009 and analyzed for sediment, nutrients, bacteria, and other water-quality constituents. Regression models were developed to establish relations between discretely sampled constituent concentrations and continuously measured physical properties to estimate concentrations of those constituents of interest that are not easily measured in real time because of limitations in sensor technology and fiscal constraints. Regression models were published in 2006 that were based on a different dataset collected during 1997 through 2003. This report updates those models using discrete and continuous data collected during January 1999 through December 2009. Models also were developed for five new constituents, including additional nutrient species and indicator bacteria. The water-quality information in this report is important to the city of Wichita because it allows the concentrations of many potential pollutants of interest, including nutrients and sediment, to be estimated in real time and characterized over conditions and time scales that would not be possible otherwise.

Kansas↗

USGS2023

Multi-resolution habitat models of the Puerto Rican Nightjar Antrostromus noctitherus

The Puerto Rican Nightjar Antrostomus noctitherus is an endemic Caprimulgid found in dry coastal and lower montane forests of south-western Puerto Rico. Information on the species (e.g. abundance, nesting biology) has been mostly restricted to forest reserves (i.e. Guánica Forest and Susúa Forest) with limited information available from private lands. We collected stand-level vegetation structure and geographical information from forest reserves and private lands to model habitat suitability and distribution for the Nightjar. Results of the stand-level model indicated forest type and midstorey vegetation density best predicted Nightjar habitat. Our spatial model predicted considerably more Nightjar habitat (17,819.64 ha) located outside protected areas than previously reported. Further, the model highlighted several localities of importance for the species across southern Puerto Rico, all located within private lands. We used a patch occupancy approach to assess regions identified by the landscape-level model as suitable for the Nightjar and documented the presence of the species in 32 of 55 sites, located in 12 of 18 municipalities across southern Puerto Rico. The protection and restoration of forest across the southern coast of Puerto Rico would help to ensure the long-term persistence of the Nightjar across a considerable portion of its range. Addressing habitat needs may be the single most effective mechanism to achieve recovery of the species.

Bird Conservation International↗

USGS1982

Modifications and corrections to the finite-difference model for simulation of three-dimensional ground-water flow

This report describes modifications incorporated into the finite-difference model for simulation of groundwater flow in three dimensions. These modifications extend the application of this model to simulations involving head-dependent sources and sinks (i.e., rivers, evapotranspiration, and springs or drains). Other modifications are made that enhance the iterative-solution process of the Strongly Implicit Procedure (SIP). An acceleration (or dampening) factor is introduced to the matrix equation that is to be solved, and optional methods of computing iteration parameters are incorporated into the original model. This report also describes corrections to the model that eliminate errors in the equation formulation and in mass-balance computations of certain types of simulations. Additional data-input instructions, definitions of new variables, and a list of program-statement changes are given in an appendix. (USGS)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS2023

Generalized additive model estimation of no-flow fractions and L-moments to support flow-duration curve quantile estimation using selected probability distributions for bay and estuary restoration in the Gulf States

Censored and uncensored generalized additive models (GAMs) were developed using streamflow data from 941 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations (streamgages) to predict decadal statistics of daily streamflow for streams draining to the Gulf of Mexico. The modeled decadal statistics comprise no-flow fractions and L-moments of logarithms of nonzero streamflow for six decades (1950–2009). These statistics represent metrics of decadal flow-duration curves (dFDCs) derived from about 10 million daily mean streamflows. The L-moments comprise the mean, coefficient of L-variation, and the third through fifth L-moment ratios. The GAMs were fit to the statistics from 941 streamgages and 2,750 streamgage-decades by using watershed properties such as basin area and slope, decadal precipitation and temperature, and decadal values of flood storage and urban development percentages. The GAMs then estimated decadal statistics for 9,220 prediction locations (stream reaches) coincident with outlets of level-12 hydrologic unit codes. Both entire dataset (whole model) and leave-one-watershed-out model results are reported. No-flow fractions are censored data, and Tobit extensions to GAMs were used to model ephemeral streamflow conditions. Conversely, uncensored GAMs were used for estimation of the L-moments. The GAMs are shown, by coverage probabilities, to construct reliable 95-percent prediction limits. An example shows how no-flow fractions and L-moments may be used to approximate dFDCs by using selected probability distributions (mathematical formulas) including the asymmetric exponential power, generalized normal, and kappa distributions.

Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Lou↗