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Stratigraphy and vertical hydraulic conductivity of the St. Francois confining unit in townships 25-27 N. and ranges 01-02 W., southeastern Missouri

The St. Francois confining unit (DerbyDoerun Dolomite and Davis Formation) lies beneath the Ozark aquifer (Jefferson City Dolomite to the Potosi Dolomite) and impedes the circulation of water between the overlying Ozark aquifer and the underlying St. Francois aquifer (Bonneterre Formation and Lamotte Sandstone). The Bonneterre Formation is the potential host formation for lead-zinc deposits in the area. There is concern that mine dewatering in the Bonneterre Formation could lower water levels in the Ozark aquifer. To address this concern, the vertical hydraulic conductivity of the St. Francois confining unit in six townships (T. 25-27 N. and R. 01- 02 W.) of Oregon, Carter, and Ripley Counties of southeastern Missouri was evaluated by describing the stratigraphy and measuring the vertical hydraulic conductivity of core samples. The Davis Formation is an intrashelf basin facies consisting of a series of shales interbedded with shaley limestones, shale-free limestones, and local dolostones, and ranges from 24 to 320ft (feet) thick, but typically the thickness is 100 to 200 ft. Shale-dominant sequences can be tens of feet thick, and contain as much as 90 percent shale. Carbonate-dominant zones may be 70 ft thick or greater. The top of the Davis Formation (based on 56 data points) ranges from 620 to 2,022 ft deep and ranges in altitude from 40ft below sea level in the northern part of the study area to 1, 182 ft below sea level in the southern part of the study area. The Derby-Doerun Dolomite represents a pair of superimposed carbonate ramp cycles. Where present, the basal shaley sequence represents a transition with the Davis Formation. The formation (based on 50 data points) ranges from 50 to 386ft thick, but typically is 120 to 180ft thick in the study area. The top of the DerbyDoerun Dolomite ranges from 495 to 2,020 ft deep (based on 53 data points), and ranges in altitude from 85 ft above sea level to 94 7 ft below sea level. The St. Francois confining unit is thickest in the central and southern parts of the study area. The thickness, as determined by 51 core logs that completely penetrate the unit, ranges from less than 200ft in the northwestern and east-central parts of the study area to 411 ft in the central part, but typically ranges from 270 to 340 ft. The net shale thickness of the confining unit (based on 29 data points) ranges from 1. 7 ft in the east -central part of the study area to 89 ft in the southwest part. These net shale thickness values include the cumulative shale thickness of rock from the top of the Derby-Doerun Dolomite to the base of the False Davis. Vertical hydraulic conductivities of 35 rock core samples from the St. Francois confining unit in the study area range from 7.6 x 10 -15 to 2.1 x 10 -10 ft/s (foot per second). The logarithmic transformed vertical hydraulic conductivities of the Derby-Doerun Dolomite and Davis Formation are similar (p-value = 0.073) using the statistical twosample t-test; however, this p-value approaches the level of significance value of 0.05. The vertical hydraulic conductivity of the Derby-Doerun Dolomite is larger and less variable than the Davis Formation. When grouped by rock type, the vertical hydraulic conductivity of samples that contain carbonate, shale, or both carbonate and shale, are similar. A comparison on the ranked data using the Mann-Whitney test shows the confining unit in the study area is statistically different (p-value = 0.020) from the confining unit in the prospecting area (west and adjacent to the study area). The median value of the vertical hydraulic conductivity data from the study area (6.7 x 10 -13 ft/s) is three times larger than the median vertical hydraulic conductivity value for the prospecting area (2.2 x 10 -13 ft/s ). The interquartile range shows that the variability of the study area data spans one order of magnitude (2.0 x 10 -13 to 2.2 x 10 -12 ft/s) and that the corresponding data from the prospecting area spans nearly two orders of magnitude (3.2 x 10 -14 to 1.1 x 10 -12 ft/s). The ranked vertical hydraulic conductivities of the Derby-Doerun Dolomite in the two areas are statistically similar (p-value = 0.514). The median vertical hydraulic conductivity of the study area data ( 1.2 X 10 -12 ft/s) is about three times greater than the median value of the prospecting area data (4.4 x 10 -13 ft/s). The variability of the data, as shown by the interquartile range, is less in the study area (5.5 x 10 -13 to 2.2 x 10 -12 ft/s; spanning less than one order of magnitude) as compared to the prospecting area (3.2 x 10 -14 to 6.3 x 10 -10 ft/s; spanning over four orders of magnitude). The ranked vertical hydraulic conductivities of the Davis Formation in the two areas show these data sets are statistically similar (p-value = 0.076). The median vertical hydraulic conductivity value of study area samples ( 4.5 x 10 -13 ft/s) is three times greater than the median value of the prospecting area data (1.6 x 10 -13 ft/s). The interquartile range of the study area data spans one order of magnitude (1.2 x 10 -13 to 1.4 x 10 -12 ft/s) and the corresponding data from the prospecting area spans nearly 1.5 orders of magnitude (3.2 x 10 -14 to 7.4 x 10 -13 ft/s). The Mann-Whitney test shows the ranked vertical hydraulic conductivities of each rock type from the study area are statistically similar to the same rock type in the prospecting area [carbonates (p-value = 0.225), shales (p-value = 0.668), and carbonates and shales (p-value = 0.227)]. However, in each of the three cases the study area samples have larger median values and less variability than the prospecting area samples. Because the vertical hydraulic conductivity of the various rock types of the confining unit in the study area are statistically similar, the entire carbonate-shale thickness is the primary factor determining the effectiveness of the confining unit. The range of effective vertical hydraulic conductivity of the St. Francois confining unit in the study area using appropriate minimum and maximum thickness, net shale thickness, and vertical hydraulic conductivities is 3 X 10 -13 to 2 X 10 -12 ft/s. The vertical hydraulic conductivity of the confining unit is small, and the confining unit effectively impedes the ground-water flow between the Ozark aquifer and the St. Francois aquifer, unless preferred- path secondary permeability has developed along faults and fractures that extend through the confining unit.

Missouri

Nutrients and pesticides in ground water of the Ozark Plateaus in Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, and Oklahoma

A total of 229 ground-water samples were collected from 215 sites as part of the Ozark Plateaus study unit of the National Water-Quality Assessment Program. These samples were collected from 1993 through 1995 using a network of springs and wells with three scale-dependent components. The first component, the study-unit survey, consisted of 99 randomly selected springs and domestic wells in the Springfield Plateau and Ozark aquifers. The second component, two land-use studies, consisted of 42 springs and domestic wells in a poultry-dominated agricultural area and 40 springs and domestic wells in a cattle-dominated agricultural area overlying the Springfield Plateau aquifer. The third component, the small-watershed study, consisted of 4 springs, 18 domestic wells, and 11 monitoring wells in a small basin within the poultry land-use study area. Samples were analyzed for major ions, nutrients, dissolved organic carbon, methylene blue active substances, tritium, and 88 pesticides and metabolites.The water-quality data from these samples were analyzed with descriptive and statistical methods. Nitrite plus nitrate, which was detected more often and in greater concentrations than any of the other nutrients, ranged from less than 0.05 to 25 milligrams per liter as nitrogen. Nitrite plus nitrate concentrations positively correlated to percent agricultural land use around each site. Median nitrite plus nitrate concentrations generally were greater in samples from springs than in samples from wells. Concentrations of nitrite, ammonia, and ammonia plus organic nitrogen were also affected by land use and also by concentrations of dissolved oxygen in the ground water. Concentrations of phosphorus and orthophosphate probably were affected by land use and also by phosphorus solubility. Pesticides were detected in 80 of 229 samples from 73 of 215 sites. A total of 20 pesticides were detected with a maximum of 5 pesticides detected in any 1 sample. The most commonly detected pesticides were tebuthiuron, atrazine, prometon, desethylatrazine, and simazine. Maximum concentrations ranged from 0.003 to 1.0 microgram per liter. The occurrence and distribution of pesticides were related to land use. Percent agricultural land use was greater for samples with pesticides detected than for samples with no pesticides detected. Pesticides were detected more often in samples from springs than in samples from wells. The occurrence of pesticides also was related to seasonality and chemical characteristics, such as solubility and persistence, of the compounds.

Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma

Major ions, nutrients, and trace elements in the Mississippi River near Thebes, Illinois, July through September 1993

Extensive flooding in the upper Mississippi River Basin during summer 1993 had a significant effect on the water quality of the Mississippi River. To evaluate the change in temporal distribution and transport of dissolved constituents in the Mississippi River, six water samples were collected by a discharge-weighted method from July through September 1993 near Thebes, Illinois. Sampling at this location provided water-quality information from the upper Mississippi, the Missouri, and the Illinois River Basins. Dissolved major constituents that were analyzed in each of the samples included bicarbonate, calcium (Ca), carbonate (C03), chloride (Cl), dissolved organic carbon, magnesium (Mg), potassium (K), silica NOD, sodium (Na), and sulfate (S04). Dissolved nutrients included ammonium ion (NH4), nitrate (N03), nitrite (N02), and orthophosphate (P04) . Dissolved trace elements included aluminum (Al), arsenic (As), barium (Ba), boron (B), beryllium (Be), bromide (Br), cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr), cobalt, (Co), copper (Cu), fluoride (F), iron (Fe), lead, lithium (Li), manganese (Mn), mercury (Hg), molybdenum (Mo), nickel (Ni), strontium (Sr), thallium, uranium (U), vanadium (V), and zinc (Zn). Other physical properties of water that were measured included specific conductance, pH and suspended-sediment concentration (particle size, less than 63 micrometers). Results of this study indicated that large quantities of dissolved constituents were transported through the river system. Generally, pH, alkalinity, and specific conductance and the concentrations of B, Br, Ca, Cl, Cr, K, Li, Mg, Mo, Na, S04, Sr, U, and V increased as water discharge decreased, while concentrations of F, Hg, and suspended sediment sharply decreased as water discharge decreased after the crest of the flood. Concentrations of other constituents, such as Al, As, Ba, Be, Co, Cu, Ni, N03, N02, NH4, P04, and Si02, varied with time as discharge decreased after the crest of the flood. For most constituents, the load transported during floods generally is much greater than that transported during low-flow conditions. How ever, for Cd, Cr, Fe, Mn, V, and Zn, loads increased substantially as water discharge decreased after the crest of the flood.

Illinois

Estimated flow-duration curves for selected ungaged sites in Kansas

Flow-duration curves for 1968-98 were estimated for 32 ungaged sites in the Missouri, Smoky Hill-Saline, Solomon, Marais des Cygnes, Walnut, Verdigris, and Neosho River Basins in Kansas. Also included from a previous report are estimated flow-duration curves for 16 ungaged sites in the Cimarron and lower Arkansas River Basins in Kansas. The method of estimation used six unique factors of flow duration: (1) mean streamflow and percentage duration of mean streamflow, (2) ratio of 1-percent-duration streamflow to mean streamflow, (3) ratio of 0.1-percent-duration streamflow to 1-percent-duration streamflow, (4) ratio of 50-percent-duration streamflow to mean streamflow, (5) percentage duration of appreciable streamflow (0.10 cubic foot per second), and (6) average slope of the flow-duration curve. These factors were previously developed from a regionalized study of flow-duration curves using streamflow data for 1921-76 from streamflow-gaging stations with drainage areas of 100 to 3,000 square miles. The method was tested on a currently (2001) measured, continuous-record streamflow-gaging station on Salt Creek near Lyndon, Kansas, with a drainage area of 111 square miles and was found to adequately estimate the computed flow-duration curve for the station. The method also was tested on a currently (2001) measured, continuous-record, streamflow-gaging station on Soldier Creek near Circleville, Kansas, with a drainage area of 49.3 square miles. The results of the test on Soldier Creek near Circleville indicated that the method could adequately estimate flow-duration curves for sites with drainage areas of less than 100 square miles. The low-flow parts of the estimated flow-duration curves were verified or revised using 137 base-flow discharge measurements made during 1999-2000 at the 32 ungaged sites that were correlated with base-flow measurements and flow-duration analyses performed at nearby, long-term, continuous-record, streamflow-gaging stations (index stations). The method did not adequately estimate the flow-duration curves for two sites in the western one-third of the State because of substantial changes in farming practices (terracing and intensive ground-water withdrawal) that were not accounted for in the two previous studies (Furness, 1959; Jordan, 1983). For these two sites, there was enough historic, continuous-streamflow record available to perform record-extension techniques correlated to their respective index stations for the development of the estimated flow-duration curves. The estimated flow-duration curves at the ungaged sites can be used for projecting future flow frequencies for assessment of total maximum daily loads (TMDLs) or other water-quality constituents, water-availability studies, and for basin-characteristic studies.

Water-Resources Investigations Report

Flood risk awareness during the 2011 floods in the central United States: showcasing the importance of hydrologic data and interagency collaboration

Floods have long had a major impact on society and the environment, evidenced by the more than 1,500 federal disaster declarations since 1952 that were associated with flooding. Calendar year 2011 was an epic year for floods in the United States, from the flooding on the Red River of the North in late spring to the Ohio, Mississippi, and Missouri River basin floods in the spring and summer to the flooding caused by Hurricane Irene along the eastern seaboard in August. As a society, we continually seek to reduce flood impacts, with these efforts loosely grouped into two categories: mitigation and risk awareness. Mitigation involves such activities as flood assessment, flood control implementation, and regulatory activities such as storm water and floodplain ordinances. Risk awareness ranges from issuance of flood forecasts and warnings to education of lay audiences about the uncertainties inherent in assessing flood probability and risk. This paper concentrates on the issue of flood risk awareness, specifically the importance of hydrologic data and good interagency communication in providing accurate and timely flood forecasts to maximize risk awareness. The 2011 floods in the central United States provide a case study of the importance of hydrologic data and the value of proper, timely, and organized communication and collaboration around the collection and dissemination of that hydrologic data in enhancing the effectiveness of flood forecasting and flood risk awareness.

Leadership and Management in Engineering

Ranking river basins for stream temperature research and monitoring in the contiguous United States

There is a need to prioritize research and data collection in river basins by integrating information from environmental, ecological, and socioeconomic datasets to maintain acceptable water quality for human uses and ecosystem health. Multiple anthropogenic and natural stressors are responsible for driving changes in stream temperatures that can alter ecosystems and degrade water quality. These stressors are variable spatially and temporally, which can be challenging for prioritizing monitoring and research. In this study, an evaluation of variables related to stream temperature was performed for 163 candidate basins of the contiguous United States to highlight potential focal areas. Thirty variables were combined in six components: anthropogenic forcing, natural forcing, climate change, ecological sensitivity, socioeconomic sensitivity, and data availability. The components were incorporated into three themes: vulnerability of streams to thermal change, vulnerability of ecosystems, and vulnerability of communities. By evaluating each theme separately, patterns of vulnerability and potential resiliency were identified as well as consistency in ranks within the themes. For example, results of the national scale ranking indicated the Southern California Coastal basin (within California-Nevada region) was the highest-ranking priority in vulnerability of streams to thermal change and vulnerability of ecosystems. The analysis also identified vulnerable basins with gaps in monitoring. For example, the Missouri-Oahe basin (within the Northern High Plains region) was the highest-ranking priority for vulnerable communities with limitations in data availability. The ranking approach provides insight into basins that are resilient and are ideal candidates for monitoring and research.

Journal of Hydrology

Remote sensing of bush honeysuckle in the Middle Blue River Basin, Kansas City, Missouri, 2016–17

Amur honeysuckle bush ( Lonicera maackii ) and Morrow’s honeysuckle ( Lonicera morrowii ) are two of the most aggressively invasive species to become established throughout areas along the Blue River in metropolitan Kansas City, Missouri. These two large, spreading shrubs (locally referred to as bush honeysuckle in the Kansas City metropolitan area) colonize the understory, crowd out native plants, and may be allelopathic, producing a chemical that restricts growth of native species. Removal efforts have been underway for more than a decade by local conservation groups such as Bridging The Gap and Heartland Conservation Alliance, who are concerned with the loss of native species diversity associated with the spread of bush honeysuckle. Bush honeysuckle produces leaves early in the spring before almost all other vegetation and retains leaves late in the fall after almost all other species have lost their leaves. Appropriately timed imagery can be used during early spring and late fall to map the extent of bush honeysuckle. Using multispectral imagery collected in February 2016 and true color aerial imagery collected in March 2016, a coverage map of bush honeysuckle was made to investigate the extent of bush honeysuckle in a study area along the middle reach of the Blue River in the Kansas City metropolitan area in Jackson County, Missouri. The coverage map was further classified into unlikely, low-, and high-density bush honeysuckle density at a 30-foot cell size. The unlikely density class correctly predicted the absence and approximate density of bush honeysuckle for 86 percent of the field-verification points, the low-density class predicted the presence and approximate density with 73-percent confidence, and the high-density class was predicted with 67-percent confidence.

Missouri

Postflood occurrence of selected agricultural chemicals and volatile organic compounds in near-surface unconsolidated aquifers in the upper Mississippi River basin, 1993

The historic stream flooding and intense rainfall across the upper Mississippi River Basin during summer 1993 had an immediate effect on near-surface unconsolidated aquifers by raising the water levels closer to the land surface . The objective of this study was to determine if this flooding also had immediate effects on groundwater quality . Water samples were collected during September and October 1993 from 110 wells completed in near-surface unconsolidated aquifers and were analyzed for herbicides, herbicide metabolites, inorganic nutrients, and volatile organic compounds. The results of these samples were compared with those obtained during summer 1991 or 1992. The difference was not statistically significant in the frequency of herbicide detection, total herbicide concentration, nitrate concentration, or the frequency of volatile organic compound detection between water samples collected in 1991 and 1992 and those collected in 1993 when all 110 wells were considered collectively . However, water samples from the Missouri River alluvial aquifer had a fourfold increase in the frequency of herbicide detection . There also appears to be a relation between increases in total herbicide concentration and the occurrence of stream flooding near a well. Water samples from wells that had at least a 20-percent increase in dissolved-oxygen concentration had the greatest frequency of substantial changes in total herbicide concentration and substantial increases in nitrate concentration . Increased dissolved-oxygen concentration could indicate areas where recharge has increased as a result of extensive stream flooding and intense rainfall . An inverse relation was determined between well depth and changes (increase or decrease) in total herbicide concentration . Water in shallow wells more quickly reflect changes in water quality in response to changes in recharge. Significantly more urban residential and industrial land use was within a 30-meter radius of the well for wells in which volatile organic compounds were detected. Because water moves more slowly along ground-water flow paths compared with surface-water runoff, additional information is required to determine long-term effects of the 1993 flood on ground-water quality.

upper Mississippi River basin

Streamflow contributions from tribal lands to major river basins of the United States

While many studies on tribal water resources of individual tribal lands in the United States (US) have been conducted, the importance of tribal water resources at a national scale has largely gone unrecognized because their combined totals have not been quantified. Thus, we sought to provide a numerical estimate of major water budget components on tribal lands within the conterminous US and on USGS hydrologic unit codes (HUC2) regions. Using existing national-scale data and models, we estimated mean annual precipitation, evapotranspiration, excess precipitation, streamflow, and water use for the period 1971–2000. Tribal lands represent about 3.4 percent of the total land area of the conterminous US and on average account for 1.9 percent of precipitation, 2.4 percent of actual evapotranspiration, 0.95 percent of excess precipitation, 1.6 percent of water use, and 0.43 percent of streamflow origination. Additionally, approximately 9.5 and 11.3 percent of US streamflow flows through or adjacent as boundaries to tribal lands, respectively. Streamflow through or adjacent to tribal lands accounts for 42 and 48 percent of streamflow in the Missouri region, respectively; and for 86 and 88 percent in the Lower Colorado region, respectively. On average, 5,600 million cubic meters of streamflow per year was produced on tribal lands in the Pacific Northwest region, nearly five times greater than tribal lands in any other region. Tribal lands in the Great Lakes, Missouri, Arkansas-White-Red, and California regions all produced between 1,000 and 1,400 million cubic meters per year.

PLoS ONE

Cumuilative Effects of Impoundments on the Hydrology of Riparian Wetlands along the Marmaton River, west-central Missouri

The effects of proposed impoundments and resulting streamflow regulation on riparian wetlands in the Marmaton River Basin, Missouri, USA were determined using measurements and numerical simulations of wetland water budgets. Calibrated and validated Soil-Plant-Air-Water (SPAW) models were used to simulate daily water depths of four riparian wetlands for Current (model scenario of existing impoundments) and Proposed (model scenario of existing and proposed impoundments) impoundment conditions. The simulated frequency of flooding decreased 19–65% at the wetlands following the additions of proposed impoundments. The reduced flooding resulted in decreases in wetland water depths at all sites during the 10 simulated growing seasons under Proposed conditions with an average duration of continuous water-depth declines of 289 days at the upstream (most regulated) site. Downstream wetlands within the zone of least regulation had an average duration of water level decreases of about 20 days. Decreased water levels under Proposed conditions resulted in a range of 65–365 additional dry days at the study wetlands during the simulated 10-year period of Proposed conditions. The areas of the four wetlands meeting the hydrologic criteria of a formal jurisdictional wetland definition decreased ranging from zero to 31% under Proposed impoundment conditions.

Wetlands

Habitat and prey availability attributes associated with juvenile and early adult pallid sturgeon occurrence in the Missouri River, USA

The pallid sturgeon Scaphirhynchus albus is a federally endangered species native to the Missouri and lower Mississippi Rivers, USA. As part of recovery efforts, over 360000 pallid sturgeon have been stocked into the Missouri River since 1994, and a standardized, long-term monitoring program was initiated in 2003. Understanding the distribution and habitat requirements of juvenile and early adult pallid sturgeon (fork length <720 mm, age <10 yr) is an important goal of the monitoring and recovery programs. In this study, we collected information on habitat characteristics and prey availability from the upper Missouri River along the Nebraska-South Dakota border and compared these attributes between capture (present) and non-capture (absent) locations (N = 59). To evaluate the relative influence of habitat and prey availability on pallid sturgeon occurrence, we examined several candidate models using an information-theoretic approach. A prey availability model had the most support and included site-specific information on Diptera and Ephemeroptera abundance. A habitat-based model showed that juveniles and early adults were found in relatively deeper water and avoided areas where bottom velocities were greater than 1.2 m s −1 . Although not as well supported as the prey-effects model (evidence ratio = 6.4), habitat features also provided a plausible model for predicting occurrence. The models developed here could be used to evaluate pallid sturgeon habitat potential in the Missouri River basin and help guide future monitoring and conservation management of this endangered species.

Missouri River

Recent formation of arroyos in the Little Missouri Badlands of southwestern North Dakota

In the Little Missouri Badlands of southwestern North Dakota, the channels of ephemeral streams are incised 2 to 10 m or more into mid-to-late Holocene alluvium. The objectives of this study were to determine the timing and cause(s) of the most recent episodes of fluvial incision and to develop a process-response model that illustrates the formation and evolution of arroyos in this region. The purpose was to distinguish natural from anthropogenic changes to the landscape and to discriminate allogenic from autogenic causes of incision, thereby gaining a greater sense of how steep, relatively small, ephemeral streams evolve. Dendrochronologic and dendrogeomorphic analyses of riparian cottonwoods provide an inexpensive, high-resolution dating method to constrain the time of incision, thereby permitting determination of the cause(s) of incision by evaluating environmental conditions prior to and at the onset of fluvial incision. An examination of seven small (10 to 100 km2) drainage basins indicated ephemeral streams have undergone a four-stage cycle of change within the past 200 years, comprising(i) an initial period of relative geomorphic stability with pedogenesis on the flood plain and low rates of lateral channel migration, (ii) a period of channel incision with subsequent widening of the flood plain through lateral corrasion along middle and upstream reaches, (iii) a concomitant period of aggradation along downstream reaches and, finally, (iv) a period of downstream incision. Dendrochronologic data and dendrogeomorphic relations indicate there have been three distinct periods of fluvial incision in the past 200 years. The first period of incision began in the 1860s and 1870s prior to the onset of European settlement and intensive grazing by domesticated cattle in the area. This period of incision occurred along the middle reaches of all seven of the streams examined and coincided with a severe, protracted drought, suggesting an allogenic cause. The second period of incision occurred during the end of the 19th century and into the 20th century along the upstream reaches of streams. This period of incision was mentioned in some written accounts of early settlers and coincided with the introduction of cattle and historical overgrazing of the region. However, overgrazing may not have caused the incision of this period, but instread exacerbated or accelerated the upstream migration of knickpoints formed earlier along middle reaches. A third period of incision has occurred in the past 20 years along the lower reaches of two of the seven streams examined. This incision was caused by the process of meander cutoff. This autogenic process decreases sinuosity and increases channel slope, stream power, and the potential to incise along adjacent stream reaches. ?? 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Geomorphology

Peak streamflow trends and their relation to changes in climate in Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin

Flood-frequency analysis, also called peak-flow frequency or flood-flow frequency analysis, is essential to water resources management applications including critical structure design and floodplain mapping. Federal guidelines for doing flood-frequency analyses are presented in a U.S. Geological Survey Techniques and Methods report known as Bulletin 17C. A basic assumption within Bulletin 17C is that for drainage basins without major hydrologic alterations, statistical properties of the distribution of annual peak streamflows (peak flows) are stationary; that is, the mean, variance, and skew are constant. The stationarity assumption has been widely accepted within the flood-frequency community; however, a better understanding of long-term climatic persistence and concerns about potential climate change and land-use change has caused a reexamination of the stationarity assumption. This work is part of that reexamination. The stationarity assumption is a concern because flood-frequency analyses that do not incorporate observed trends and abrupt changes may result in a poor representation of the true flood risk. Bulletin 17C does not offer guidance for incorporating nonstationarities when estimating floods, and it describes a need for studies that incorporate changing climate or basin characteristics. In response to this need and a history of concern regarding nonstationarity peak flows in the region, this study was done to assess potential nonstationarity in peak flows in the north-central United States. This report summarizes the methods used to detect hydroclimatic changes in peak-flow data in the study region. Four periods were selected for analysis of peak flow, daily streamflow, and climate data. The periods are (1) a 100-year period, 1921–2020; (2) a 75-year period, 1946–2020; (3) a 50-year period, 1971–2020; and (4) a 30-year period, 1991–2020. The starting point for these analyses was the initial data analysis of peak flow described in Bulletin 17C, which includes plotting the peak flow and checking for autocorrelation, monotonic trends, and changes points. Analyses were added to examine additional features in the data. Results are provided in a U.S. Geological Survey data release. The study limitations are documented for users of the results.

Scientific Investigations Report

Water-quality requirements, tolerances, and preferences of pallid sturgeon Scaphirhynchus albus in the lower Missouri River

Although numerous studies have been completed on pallid sturgeon populations and behavior, few have addressed the potential for water-quality characteristics to limit recruitment and population success of pallid sturgeon. Literature on sturgeon and water-quality data indicates recruitment of pallid sturgeon may be limited by several water-quality characteristics of the lower Missouri River including: High summer water temperatures in excess of 30 degrees Celsius, which likely are stressful to pallid sturgeon, Turbidities that are more than an order of magnitude less than the unaltered Missouri River and may no longer provide adequate cover for egg, larval, and young pallid sturgeon or for older pallid sturgeon attempting to capture prey, Dissolved oxygen that decreases to concentrations less than 2 milligrams per liter during some river rises in the late spring and summer, Food webs altered by increased light availability and hypereutrophic conditions caused by or enhanced by impoundment, bank stabilization, nonnative species, and decreased allocthanous material from the basin, Bioaccumulative contaminants, including polychlorinated biphenyls, chlordane, dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) and its metabolites, mercury, and synergistic contaminant cocktails that are particularly damaging to long-lived fish, and Other contaminants such as agricultural chemicals (particularly atrazine) and organic wastewater compounds that can disrupt endocrine systems of fish and limit reproduction at extremely low concentrations. Additional research could be used to characterize and quantify the requirements, tolerance, and preferences of pallid sturgeon to these water-quality characteristics, especially during the egg and larval life stages. Enhancements to existing water-sampling programs are needed to quantify the exposure of pallid sturgeon to many of these water-quality stressors.

Missouri River

Floods of March-April 1960 in Eastern Nebraska and adjacent states

Snowmelt floods, record breaking on many streams and outstanding in terms of total area affected and runoff volumes generated, occurred in late March and early April 1960 on Missouri River tributaries in adjacent parts of six states. In order of area affected, the States are Nebraska, South Dakota, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, and Missouri. Five lives were lost, and the estimated damage was $14 million. Main-stem reservoirs kept Missouri River stages substantially below potential unregulated levels. Without regulation by reservoirs, the stage at Sioux City and Omaha would have been about 9 feet higher than it was and the damage would have been many millions of dollars more than actually occurred. The floods were caused by rapid melting of an extensive snow cover of unusual depth and water equivalent, augmented by light to moderate rains. Temperatures almost continuously below normal, beginning in late December and culminating in record lows at many places during the first half of March, resulted in the retention of record snow accumulations, much later and much farther south than normal. The snowfall in eastern Nebraska from December 27 to March 26 was about twice the annual average. The excessive snowfall and below-normal temperatures produced a record-breaking 75-day period of continuous snow cover at Omaha. A rapidly rising, eastward-moving temperature pattern late in March, in combination with an easterly orientation of many Nebraska streams, tended to magnify flood peaks. The rapid temperature rise started about March 18 in western Nebraska but not until March 26 in the eastern part of the State. As a consequence, flood discharges from the headwaters, often bearing heavy ice floes, arrived in the lower reaches simultaneously with or even ahead of the breakup of the unusually heavy ice cover and caused serious jamming. Comparisons of the peak discharges of the 1960 snowmelt floods with those of previous floods reveal several interesting facts. Peak discharges on the Missouri main stem were appreciably less than those in several other years, largely because of effective reservoir control of upstream runoff, but, many tributaries throughout the report area had maximum discharges for their periods of record. Particularly significant are comparisons at some stations for which historical flood data were available. For example, the peak discharge of the Platte River at Louisville, Nebr., was the greatest since at least 1881, and the peak on the Elkhorn River at Waterloo, Nebr., was the greatest snowmelt flood since at least 1912, although it was less than half of the rain peak of June 12, 1944. Following a characteristic pattern for snowmelt floods, the peaks on the smaller streams generally were not unusual, but the cumulative effect of widespread high runoff throughout the stream systems caused higher and more outstanding peaks in the larger basins. Peaks due to local rains of high intensity often are more significant for small areas. Snowmelt floods occur less frequently than rainfall floods in most basins of this flood area.. Studies made for this report show that an average of only about one out of every four maximum annual flood discharges in the report area results primarily from snowmelt. But for streams flowing from north to south in South Dakota and Iowa, the ratio of snowmelt peaks to rainfall peaks is higher. Comparisons of 1960 flood volumes with those for previous floods are even more striking than peak-discharge comparisons. Flood volumes at eight selected stations for the maximum 20-day period during March and April 1960 exceeded all previous 20-day volumes with only one exception; the ratios ranged from 3.11 for Vermillion River near Wakonda, S. Dak., to 0.93 for Elkhorn River at Waterloo, Nebr. The ratio of the 20-day volume to the 1960 annual runoff for the same group of stations ranged from 20 percent at Niobrara River near Spencer, Nebr., to 74 percent on the Vermillion River. For the lat

Water Supply Paper

An assessment of low flows in streams in northeastern Wyoming

Low flows were assessed and summarized in the following basins in northeastern Wyoming: Little Bighorn, Tongue, Powder, Little Missouri, Belle Fourche, Cheyenne, and Niobrara River, and about 200 river miles of the North Platte River and its tributaries. Only existing data from streamflow stations and miscellaneous observation sites during the period, 1930-80, were used. Data for a few stations in Montana and South Dakota were used in the analysis. Data were available for 56 perennial streams, 38 intermittent streams, and 34 ephemeral streams. The distribution of minimum observed flows of record at all stations and sites and the 7-day, 10-year low flows at mountain stations and main-stem plains stations are shown on a map. Seven day low flows were determined by fitting the log Pearsons Type III distribution to the data; results are tabulated only for the stations with at least 10 years of record that included at least one major drought. Most streams that originate in the foothills and plains have no flow during part of every year, and are typical of much of the study area. For stations on these streams , the frequency of the annual maximum number of consecutive days of no flow was determined, as an indicator of the likelihood of extended periods of no flow or drought. For estimates at ungaged sites on streams in the Bighorn Mountains only, a simple regression of 7-day, 10-year low flow on drainage area has a standard error of 64%, based on 19 stations with drainage areas of 2 to 200 sq mi. The 7-day, 10-year low flow in main-stem streams can be interpolated from graphs of 7-day, 10-year low flow versus distance along the main channel. Additional studies of low flow are needed. The data base, particularly synoptic baseflow information, needs considerable expansion. Also, the use of storage-analysis procedures should be considered as a means of assessing the availability of water in streams that otherwise are fully appropriated or that are ephemeral. (Author 's abstract)

Water-Resources Investigations Report

Ground-water quality and effects of poultry confined animal feeding operations on shallow ground water, upper Shoal Creek basin, Southwest Missouri, 2000

Forty-seven wells and 8 springs were sampled in May, October, and November 2000 in the upper Shoal Creek Basin, southwest Missouri, to determine if nutrient concentrations and fecal bacteria densities are increasing in the shallow aquifer as a result of poultry confined animal feeding operations (CAFOs). Most of the land use in the basin is agricultural, with cattle and hay production dominating; the number of poultry CAFOs has increased in recent years. Poultry waste (litter) is used as a source of nutrients on pasture land as much as several miles away from poultry barns.Most wells in the sample network were classified as ?P? wells, which were open only or mostly to the Springfield Plateau aquifer and where poultry litter was applied to a substantial acreage within 0.5 mile of the well both in spring 2000 and in several previous years; and ?Ag? wells, which were open only or mostly to the Springfield Plateau aquifer and which had limited or no association with poultry CAFOs. Water-quality data from wells and springs were grouped for statistical purposes as P1, Ag1, and Sp1 (May 2000 samples) and P2, Ag2, and Sp2 (October or November 2000 samples). The results of this study do not indicate that poultry CAFOs are affecting the shallow ground water in the upper Shoal Creek Basin with respect to nutrient concentrations and fecal bacteria densities. Statistical tests do not indicate that P wells sampled in spring 2000 have statistically larger concentrations of nitrite plus nitrate or fecal indicator bacteria densities than Ag wells sampled during the same time, at a 95-percent confidence level. Instead, the Ag wells had statistically larger concentrations of nitrite plus nitrate and fecal coliform bacteria densities than the P wells.The results of this study do not indicate seasonal variations from spring 2000 to fall 2000 in the concentrations of nutrients or fecal indicator bacteria densities from well samples. Statistical tests do not indicate statistically significant differences at a 95-percent confidence level for nitrite plus nitrate concentrations or fecal indicator bacteria densities between either P wells sampled in spring and fall 2000, or Ag wells sampled in spring and fall 2000. However, analysis of samples from springs shows that fecal streptococcus bacteria densities were statistically smaller in fall 2000 than in spring 2000 at a 95-percent confidence level.Nitrite plus nitrate concentrations in spring 2000 samples ranged from less than the detection level [0.02 mg/L (milligram per liter) as nitrogen] to 18 mg/L as nitrogen. Seven samples from three wells had nitrite plus nitrate concentrations at or larger than the maximum contaminant level (MCL) of 10 mg/L as nitrogen. The median nitrite plus nitrate concentrations were 0.28 mg/L as nitrogen for P1 samples, 4.6 mg/L as nitrogen for Ag1 samples, and 3.9 mg/L as nitrogen for Sp1 samples.Fecal coliform bacteria were detected in 1 of 25 P1 samples and 5 of 15 Ag1 samples. Escherichia coli (E. coli) bacteria were detected in 3 of 24 P1 samples and 1 of 13 Ag1 samples. Fecal streptococcus bacteria were detected in 8 of 25 P1 samples and 6 of 15 Ag1 samples. Bacteria densities in samples from wells ranged from less than 1 to 81 col/100 mL (colonies per 100 milliliters) of fecal coliform, less than 1 to 140 col/100 mL of E. coli, and less than 1 to 130 col/100 mL of fecal streptococcus. Fecal indicator bacteria densities in samples from springs were substantially larger than in samples from wells. In Sp1 samples, bacteria densities ranged from 12 to 3,300 col/100 mL of fecal coliform, 40 to 2,700 col/100 mL of E. coli, and 42 to 3,100 col/100 mL of fecal streptococcus.

Water-Resources Investigations Report

Annual exceedance probabilities and trends for peak streamflows and annual runoff volumes for the Central United States during the 2011 floods

During 2011, excess precipitation resulted in widespread flooding in the Central United States with 33 fatalities and approximately $4.2 billion in damages reported in the Red River of the North, Souris, and Mississippi River Basins. At different times from late February 2011 through September 2011, various rivers in these basins had major flooding, with some locations having multiple rounds of flooding. This report provides broadscale characterizations of annual exceedance probabilities and trends for peak streamflows and annual runoff volumes for selected streamgages in the Central United States in areas affected by 2011 flooding. Annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs) were analyzed for 321 streamgages for annual peak streamflow and for 211 streamgages for annual runoff volume. Some of the most exceptional flooding was for the Souris River Basin, where of 11 streamgages considered for AEP analysis of peak streamflow, flood peaks in 2011 exceeded the next largest peak of record by at least double for 6 of the longest-term streamgages (75 to 108 years of peak-flow record). AEPs for these six streamgages were less than 1 percent. AEPs for 2011 runoff volumes were less than 1 percent for all seven Souris River streamgages considered for AEP analysis. Magnitudes of 2011 runoff volumes exceeded previous maxima by double or more for 5 of the 7 streamgages (record lengths 52 to 108 years). For the Red River of the North Basin, AEPs for 2011 runoff volumes were exceptional, with two streamgages having AEPs less than 0.2 percent, five streamgages in the range of 0.2 to 1 percent, and four streamgages in the range of 1 to 2 percent. Magnitudes of 2011 runoff volumes also were exceptional, with all 11 of the aforementioned streamgages eclipsing previous long-term (62 to 110 years) annual maxima by about one-third or more. AEPs for peak streamflows in the upper Mississippi River Basin were not exceptional, with no AEPs less than 1 percent. AEPs for annual runoff volumes indicated less frequent recurrence, with 11 streamgages having AEPs of less than 1 percent. The 2011 runoff volume for streamgage 05331000 (at Saint Paul, Minnesota) exceeded the previous record (112 years of record) by about 24 percent. An especially newsworthy feature was prolonged flooding along the main stem of the Missouri River downstream from Garrison Dam (located upstream from Bismarck, North Dakota) and extending downstream throughout the length of the Missouri River. The 2011 runoff volume for streamgage 06342500 (at Bismarck) exceeded the previous (1975) maximum by about 50 percent, with an associated AEP in the range of 0.2 to 1 percent. In the Ohio River Basin, peak-streamflow AEPs were less than 2 percent for only four streamgages. Runoff-volume AEPs were less than 2 percent for only three streamgages. Along the lower Mississippi River, the largest streamflow peak in 91 years was recorded for streamgage 07289000 (at Vicksburg, Mississippi), with an associated AEP of 0.8 percent. Trends in peak streamflow were analyzed for 98 streamgages, with 67 streamgages having upward trends, 31 with downward trends, and zero with no trend. Trends in annual runoff volume were analyzed for 182 streamgages, with 145 streamgages having upward trends, 36 with downward trends, and 1 with no trend. The trend analyses used descriptive methods that did not include measures of statistical significance. A dichotomous spatial distribution in trends was apparent for both peak streamflow and annual runoff volume, with a small number of streamgages in the northwestern part of the study area having downward trends and most streamgages in the eastern part of the study area having upward trends.

Professional Paper