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Applying U.S. Geological Survey science to understand effects to water supply in the Upper Colorado River Basin

Introduction The Colorado River Basin is a vital source of water to more than 40 million people in the Western United States and Mexico, including in major cities like Denver, Las Vegas, Phoenix, Tucson, Los Angeles, and San Diego, and supports irrigation for about 16,000 square kilometers of agricultural land. Since 2000, the southwestern United States has been unusually dry due to low precipitation and warm air temperatures, contributing to extreme water level declines of the two large reservoirs on the Colorado River, Lake Mead and Lake Powell. In 2021, these reservoirs reached their lowest levels on record, resulting in unprecedented restrictions on water usage in the basin. As much as 90 percent of the annual runoff in the Colorado River Basin originates in areas upstream from Lake Powell (hereafter, these areas will be referred to collectively as the “Upper Basin”). Consequently, understanding the processes that can affect water supply in the Upper Basin could be crucial for supporting human, agricultural, and ecological needs across a large spatial scale. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) does a wide variety of science in cooperation with resource managers, municipalities, tribes, and local, State, and Federal agencies to help improve understanding of processes, such as streamflow and water quality, potentially affecting water supply in the Upper Basin. This fact sheet describes three key potential factors affecting water supply in the Upper Basin—snow processes and water storage, wildfire and basin hydrology, and salinity concentrations and water quality—and highlights associated USGS research activities in the basin.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming↗

Extent and frequency of floods on the Schuylkill River near Phoenixville and Pottstown, Pennsylvania

Knowledge of the frequency and extent of flooding is an important requirement for the design of all works of man bordering or encroaching on flood plains. The proper design of bridges, culverts, dams, highways, levees, reservoirs, sewage-disposal systems, waterworks and all structures on the flood plains of streams requires careful consideration of flood hazards. -1- By use of relations presented in this report, the extent, depth, and frequency of flooding can be estimated for any site along the reach of the Schuylkill River from Oaks to Pottstown. These flood data are presented so that regulatory agencies, organizations, and individuals may have a technical basis for making decisions on the use of flood-prone areas. The Delaware River Basin Commission and the U. S. Geological Survey regard this program of flood-plain-inundation studies as a positive step toward flood-damage prevention. Flood-plaininundation studies are a prerequisite to flood-plain management which may include a mixture of flood-control structures and/or land-use regulations. Both physical works and flood-plain regulations are included in the Comprehensive Plan for development of the Delaware River basin, of which the Schuylkill River is a part. Recommendations for land use, or suggestions for limitations of land use, are not made herein. Other reports on use and regulation of land in flood-prone areas are available (Dola, 1961; White, 1961; American Society of Civil Engineers Task Force on Flood Plain Regulations, 1962; and Goddard, 1963). The primary responsibility for planning for optimum land use in the flood plain and the implementation of flood-plain zoning or other regulations to achieve such optimum use rests with State, and local interests.

Open-File Report↗

Effect of land-applied biosolids on surface-water nutrient yields and groundwater quality in Orange County, North Carolina

Land application of municipal wastewater biosolids is the most common method of biosolids management used in North Carolina and the United States. Biosolids have characteristics that may be beneficial to soil and plants. Land application can take advantage of these beneficial qualities, whereas disposal in landfills or incineration poses no beneficial use of the waste. Some independent studies and laboratory analysis, however, have shown that land-applied biosolids can pose a threat to human health and surface-water and groundwater quality. The effect of municipal biosolids applied to agriculture fields is largely unknown in relation to the delivery of nutrients, bacteria, metals, and contaminants of emerging concern to surface-water and groundwater resources. Therefore, the North Carolina Department of Environment and Natural Resources (NCDENR) collaborated with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) through the 319 Nonpoint Source Program to better understand the transport of nutrients and bacteria from biosolids application fields to groundwater and surface water and to provide a scientific basis for evaluating the effectiveness of the current regulations. The USGS conducted a paired agricultural watershed study in the Collins Creek and Cane Creek Reservoir watersheds in Orange County, North Carolina. Field activities were conducted from March 2011 through May 2013 at two field study sites, including biosolids field application sites owned by Orange County Water and Sewer Authority (OWASA) in the Collins Creek watershed and a background study site in the Cane Creek watershed that has no fields receiving biosolids applications. Samples of biosolids source material and soil were collected from the land-application fields for laboratory analyses. Soil samples were also collected from a background agricultural field in the Cane Creek watershed that has never received land-applied municipal biosolids. Shallow groundwater samples were collected quarterly from new monitoring wells installed by NCDENR along the edge of the biosolids land-application fields and a background agricultural field for laboratory analyses. Two surface-water monitoring sites were established on Collins Creek to compute continuous streamflow and collect discrete baseflow and stormwater runoff water-quality data upstream and downstream from the biosolids land-application fields. Surface water-quality samples were also collected for baseflow and stormwater runoff conditions at an existing USGS streamgage on Cane Creek to monitor water-quality conditions in the background study watershed. The study primarily focused on nutrients and bacteria; however, data for field properties and water-quality constituents, including metals, major ions, and contaminants of emerging concern (household-, industrial-, and agricultural-use compounds, pharmaceutical compounds, hormones, and antibiotics) also were collected and used in the analyses. There were no exceedances of the 10 elements with designated U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) ceiling concentrations for land-applied biosolids in any of the biosolids samples. Treatment processes and storage techniques used by OWASA are effective in eliminating Escherichia coli and fecal coliform bacteria from biosolids. Copper, molybdenum, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, and total phosphorus were elevated in the soil from biosolids land-application fields relative to the background field. The relative richness of these constituents in the biosolids land-application fields is consistent with biosolids being the source of the elevated concentrations given the relatively high concentrations of these constituents in the biosolids samples that were collected. Shallow groundwater in the transitional zone wells, which were located adjacent to and topographically downgradient from all the biosolids land-application fields, were found to be statistically different and had higher nitrate concentrations (medians greater than 12 milligrams per liter) than all the other wells sampled as part of the study. Surface-water nutrient concentrations and yields, primarily nitrate, were higher at the monitoring site on Collins Creek downstream from the biosolids land-application fields than the other study sites that drained watersheds without biosolids land application. The largest differences in concentrations between sites were measured at baseflow conditions, which indicate that the main cause of these differences, particularly between Cane Creek and the Collins Creek site downstream from the OWASA application fields, is related to nitrate contribution from the shallow groundwater. Contaminants of emerging concern were detected in approximately 40 percent of the laboratory analyses of the biosolids samples and more frequently in soil samples from the biosolids land-application fields (approximately 40 percent of laboratory analyses) relative to the soil samples from the background field (approximately 12 percent of laboratory analyses). However, contaminants of emerging concern detected in the laboratory analysis for this study do not appear to be good indicators of human-waste contaminants derived from land-applied biosolids in groundwater or surface-water because the number of detections and concentrations at the background wells and surface-water monitoring sites are similar to or higher than those at wells and monitoring sites adjacent to or downstream from the biosolids land-application fields. The data, analysis, and conclusions associated with this study can be used by regulatory agencies, resource managers, and wastewater-treatment operators to (1) better understand the quantity and characteristics of nutrients, bacteria, metals, and contaminants of emerging concern that are transported away from biosolids land-application fields to surface water and groundwater under current regulations for the purposes of establishing effective total maximum daily loads (TMDLs) and restoring impaired water resources, (2) assess how well existing regulations protect waters of the State and potentially recommend effective changes to regulations or land-application procedures, and (3) establish a framework for developing guidance on effective techniques for monitoring and regulatory enforcement of permitted biosolids land-application fields.

North Carolina↗

Estimation of the effects of land use and groundwater withdrawals on streamflow for the Pomperaug River, Connecticut

A precipitation runoff model for the Pomperaug River watershed, Connecticut was developed to address issues of concern including the effect of development on streamflow and groundwater recharge, and the implications of water withdrawals on streamflow. The model was parameterized using a strategy that requires a minimum of calibration and optimization by establishing basic relations between the parameter value and physical characteristics of individual hydrologic response units (HRUs) that comprise the model. The strategy was devised so that the information needed can be obtained from Geographic Information System and other general databases for Connecticut. Simulation of groundwater recharge enabled evaluation of the temporal and spatial mapping of recharge variation across the watershed and the spatial effects of changes in land cover on base flow and surface runoff. The modeling indicated that over the course of a year, groundwater provides between 60 and 70 percent of flow in the Pomperaug River; the remainder is generated by more rapid flow through the shallow subsurface and runoff from impermeable surfaces and saturated ground. Groundwater is recharged primarily during periods of low evapotranspiration in the winter, spring, and fall. The largest amount of recharge occurs in the spring in response to snowmelt. During floods, the Weekeepeemee and Nonnewaug Rivers (tributaries that form the Pomperaug River) respond rapidly with little flood peak attenuation due to flood-plain storage. In the Pomperaug River, flood-plain storage is more important in attenuating floods; abandoned quarry ponds (O&G ponds) adjacent to the river provide substantial flood storage above specific river stages when flow from the river spills over the banks and fills the ponds. Discharge from the ponds also helps to sustain low flows in the Pomperaug River. Similarly, releases from the Bronson-Lockwood reservoir sustain flow in the Nonnewaug River and tend to offset the effect of groundwater withdrawals from a well field adjacent to the river during periods of natural low flow. The model indicated that under the current zoning, future development could reduce low flows by as much as 10 percent at the 99 percent exceedance level (99 percent of flows are greater than or equal to this flow), but would not substantially increase the highest flows. Simulation of projected and hypothetical development in the watershed shows, depending on how stormwater is managed, that between 10 and 20 percent effective impervious area in an HRU results in streamflow becoming dominated by the surface-runoff component. This shift from a groundwater-dominated system would likely result in substantial changes in water quality and instream habitat characteristics of the river. Base flow to streams in the Pomperaug River watershed is reduced by both increased impervious surface and increased groundwater withdrawals. For the watershed as a whole, increasing groundwater withdrawals have the potential for causing greater overall reductions in flow compared to increased development and impervious surfaces. Additionally, on the basis of groundwater-modeling simulations, the projected increase in development across the watershed and, to a lesser extent the increase in groundwater withdrawals, will increase the number of local losing reaches experiencing dry conditions and the duration of these dry periods. The location of the losing reaches tends to be in areas near the transition from the uplands to the valley bottoms that are filled with coarse glacial stratified deposits. The simulated increase in the duration and extent of localized dry stream reaches is most sensitive to local increase in impervious surface. Conversion of land from forest or developed land cover to pasture or agricultural land increases groundwater recharge and discharge to streams, while at the same time increasing overall streamflow (the opposite effect as increased impervious surface). These resu

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Summary appraisals of the nation's ground-water resources – Missouri basin region

The Missouri Basin Region lies in the north-central part of the United States and southern Canada. It includes parts of Alberta and Saskatchewan in Canada; parts of Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, Colorado, Kansas, and Missouri, and all of Nebraska in the United States. The region includes about one-sixth of the contiguous United States and requires large water supplies for irrigation, industrial, public, and rural uses. Climate ranges from semiarid to subhumid. Normal annual precipitation increases generally eastward in the downstream direction, but precipitation is not a dependable source of supply. The Missouri River and its tributaries furnish water to many users, but surface water is often inadequate to meet large demands. Numerous surface reservoirs help to regulate streamflow and provide storage, but they also allow an increase in evapotranspiration, which in some areas exceeds normal precipitation. Ground water occurs in aquifers classified as alluvial deposits of sand and gravel, glacial deposits, dune-sand deposits, basin-fill deposits of sand and gravel, sandstone, siltstone, fractured sandy clay, limestone, and dolomite. Ground water can be developed and managed in an orderly manner provided adequate geologic and hydrologic data are available to determine aquifer characteristics and response to pumping and other hydraulic stresses. These data and determinations are essential to design, testing, and implementation of water management plans. Unconsolidated and semiconsolidated aquifers include valley-fill alluvium, areally extensive alluvium, glacial deposits, and basin-fill deposits. The aquifers normally consist of alluvial sand and gravel that contain unconfined ground water that lies near the land surface. Many wells completed in the alluvial aquifers have high yields of good-quality water because most alluvial aquifers are highly transmissive and hydraulically connected to streams. Aquifers in glacial deposits may be difficult to locate and in some areas contain saline water; nevertheless, these aquifers are sources of water supply for many users. Basin-fill aquifers are as much as several thousand feet thick, and many contain large ground-water supplies. Ground-water mining has occurred in semiconsolidated aquifers because of withdrawals from wells. Unconsolidated and semiconsolidated aquifers have potential for conjunctive use with surface water, recycling to reuse available supplies, artificial recharge, and salvage of evapotranspired water. Sandstone aquifers lie near the land surface and in structural basins. Interbasin movement of ground water occurs in the Virgelle (Milk River aquifer), Fox Hills-basal Hell Creek, and Dakota aquifers. Sandstone aquifers are less transmissive than unconsolidated and semiconsolidated aquifers in general. Confined sandstone aquifers are common, and flowing wells are obtained in many areas. However, flowing wells may cause large declines in water levels if uncontrolled. Water quality is variable in sandstone aquifers but is adequate for most needs. Sandstone aquifers have potential for artificial recharge, induced interaquifer leakage, conjunctive use with surface water, and mining of ground water. Limestone and dolomite aquifers are extensive in the region, but in some areas they lie deep below the land surface. The occurrence of ground water in small pores, fractures, or large caverns causes yields from wells to range widely. Large flows through cavern systems in the aquifers are indicated by large springs in some areas. Water quality is extremely variable and must be considered in any water-development plan. Limestone and dolomite aquifers have potential for development of large water supplies in some areas. The development may be aided by induced recharge and interaquifer leakage. Saline ground water occurs throughout the Missouri Basin Region. Dissolved-solids concentration as much as 30,000 milligrams per liter has been measured in aquifers in glacial deposits in Montana. Saline water is common in sandstone aquifers in Wyoming, North Dakota, and South Dakota; maximum reported concentration is 280,000 milligrams per liter in water from the Tensleep Sandstone in Wyoming. Limestone contains saline water in many areas; maximum dissolved-solids concentration is about 350,000 milligrams per liter for the Madison Group in the Williston Basin in North Dakota. Comprehensive water-management planning in the Missouri Basin Region will require periodic or continuing inventory of precipitation, streamflow, surface-water storage, and ground water. Water demands for irrigation, industrial, public supply, and rural use are increasing rapidly. Reliance on ground-water supplies is increasing even though in many areas the ground water is still mostly undeveloped. Optimal use of water supplies will require the establishment of realistic goals and carefully conceived water-management plans, each of which will necessarily be based on an adequate baseline of hydrologic data and knowledge of the highly variable hydrologic systems in the region.

Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Monta↗

Simulating stream transport of nutrients in the eastern United States, 2002, using a spatially-referenced regression model and 1:100,000-scale hydrography

Existing Spatially Referenced Regression on Watershed attributes (SPARROW) nutrient models for the northeastern and southeastern regions of the United States were recalibrated to achieve a hydrographically consistent model with which to assess nutrient sources and stream transport and investigate specific management questions about the effects of wetlands and atmospheric deposition on nutrient transport. Recalibrated nitrogen models for the northeast and southeast were sufficiently similar to be merged into a single nitrogen model for the eastern United States. The atmospheric deposition source in the nitrogen model has been improved to account for individual components of atmospheric input, derived from emissions from agricultural manure, agricultural livestock, vehicles, power plants, other industry, and background sources. This accounting makes it possible to simulate the effects of altering an individual component of atmospheric deposition, such as nitrate emissions from vehicles or power plants. Regional differences in transport of phosphorus through wetlands and reservoirs were investigated and resulted in two distinct phosphorus models for the northeast and southeast. The recalibrated nitrogen and phosphorus models account explicitly for the influence of wetlands on regional-scale land-phase and aqueous-phase transport of nutrients and therefore allow comparison of the water-quality functions of different wetland systems over large spatial scales. Seven wetland systems were associated with enhanced transport of either nitrogen or phosphorus in streams, probably because of the export of dissolved organic nitrogen and bank erosion. Six wetland systems were associated with mitigating the delivery of either nitrogen or phosphorus to streams, probably because of sedimentation, phosphate sorption, and ground water infiltration.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Ecosystems

The Fifth National Climate Assessment updates the evidence regarding how climate change influences ecosystems, biological diversity, and the implications for changes to critical ecosystem services—as noted in the key messages above (McElwee et al., 2023). Large-scale transformational changes to ecosystems are occurring, including—but not limited to—land-use conversion, hydrological alteration, and fire regimes. Implications of such transformational change include ecosystem capacity to maintain biological diversity and ecosystem services, impacting recreational opportunities (e.g., hunting and fishing, birding, ecotourism) and agriculture production (McElwee et al., 2023). A central tenet of the Fifth National Climate Assessment regarding ecosystems was the shifts to alternative states and how the Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) framework may guide the adaptive management of ecosystems moving forward (Lynch et al., 2022). Nebraska is in the northern Great Plains, where extremes in climate and resulting ecosystem processes are experienced (Knapp et al., 2023). Pressures on ecosystems to provide essential services, including healthy soil and water to benefit humans and animals, will inevitably impact economic development, urban and rural communities, and fish and wildlife populations as climate change continues (Knapp et al., 2023). All ecosystems will be impacted in Nebraska, but aquatic systems—wetlands, aquifers, lakes, streams, and rivers—may be most impacted, given the scarcity of water as human demand (i.e., agriculture and a growing population) persists and increases (Bathke et al., 2014). Major knowledge gaps remain regarding how fish and wildlife populations will persist in changing environments. Past changes, including large-scale land conversion, water delivery systems, and water storage (construction of reservoirs), suggest that some species can adapt to novel environments and shift distributions. However, many more species may be maladapted to the expected changes in climate. Species may be unable to move to suitable habitats, and biological constraints under rapidly changing conditions may impede adaptation— resulting in extirpation and potential extinction. Further, changing conditions open multiple pathways for invasive species and novel diseases, impacting native fish populations, wildlife populations, and human health.

Nebraska↗

Assessment of selected inorganic constituents in streams in the Central Arizona Basins study area, Arizona and northern Mexico, through 1998

Stream properties and water-chemistry constituent concentrations from data collected by the National Water-Quality Assessment and other U.S. Geological Survey water-quality programs were analyzed to (1) assess water quality, (2) determine natural and human factors affecting water quality, and (3) compute stream loads for the surface-water resources in the Central Arizona Basins study area. Stream temperature, pH, dissolved-oxygen concentration and percent saturation, and dissolved-solids, suspended-sediment, and nutrient concentration data collected at 41 stream-water quality monitoring stations through water year 1998 were used in this assessment. Water-quality standards applicable to the stream properties and water-chemistry constituent concentration data for the stations investigated in this study generally were met, although there were some exceedences. In a few samples from the White River, the Black River, and the Salt River below Stewart Mountain Dam, the pH in reaches designated as a domestic drinking water source was higher than the State of Arizona standard. More than half of the samples from the Salt River below Stewart Mountain Dam and almost all of the samples from the stations on the Central Arizona Project Canal—two of the three most important surface-water sources used for drinking water in the Central Arizona Basins study area—exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency drinking water Secondary Maximum Contaminant Level for dissolved solids. Two reach-specific standards for nutrients established by the State of Arizona were exceeded many times: (1) the annual mean concentration of total phosphorus was exceeded during several years at stations on the main stems of the Salt and Verde Rivers, and (2) the annual mean concentration of total nitrogen was exceeded during several years at the Salt River near Roosevelt and at the Salt River below Stewart Mountain Dam. Stream properties and water-chemistry constituent concentrations were related to streamflow, season, water management, stream permanence, and land and water use. Dissolved-oxygen percent saturation, pH, and nutrient concentrations were dependent on stream regulation, stream permanence, and upstream disposal of wastewater. Seasonality and correlation with streamflow were dependant on stream regulation, stream permanence, and upstream disposal of wastewater. Temporal trends in streamflow, stream properties, and water-chemistry constituent concentrations were common in streams in the Central Arizona Basins study area. Temporal trends in the streamflow of unregulated perennial reaches in the Central Highlands tended to be higher from 1900 through the 1930s, lower from the 1940s through the 1970s, and high again after the 1970s. This is similar to the pattern observed for the mean annual precipitation for the Southwestern United States and indicates long-term trends in flow of streams draining the Central Highlands were driven by long-term trends in climate. Streamflow increased over the period of record at stations on effluent-dependent reaches as a result of the increase in the urban population and associated wastewater returns to the Salt and Gila Rivers in the Phoenix metropolitan area and the Santa Cruz River in the Tucson metropolitan area. Concentrations of dissolved solids decreased in the Salt River below Stewart Mountain Dam and in the Verde River below Bartlett Dam. This decrease represents an improvement in the water quality and resulted from a concurrent increase in the amount of runoff entering the reservoirs. Stream loads of water-chemistry constituents were compared at different locations along the streams with one another, and stream loads were compared to upstream inputs of the constituent from natural and anthropogenic sources to determine the relative importance of different sources and to determine the fate of the water-chemistry constituent. Of the dissolved solids transported into the Basin and Range Lowlands each year from the Central Arizona Project Canal and from streams draining the Central Highlands, about 1.2 billion kilograms accumulated in the soil, unsaturated zone, and aquifers in agricultural and urban areas as a result of irrigating crops and urban vegetation. Stream loads of phosphorus decreased from the 91st Avenue Wastewater-Treatment Plant downstream to the Gila River at Gillespie Dam, probably as a result of adsorption of phosphorus to the streambed sediments. In this same reach, stream loads of nitrogen increased, most likely because of inputs from fertilizers. The annual mass of nitrogen and phosphorus input to developed basins from quantifiable sources was much larger than the mass input to basins that had little or no municipal or agricul-tural development. These computed inputs exclude the mass of nitrogen and phosphorus from sources such as geologic formations and soils that could not be quantified. The quantifiable annual inputs of nitrogen and phosphorus for the upper Salt River Basin and the upper Verde River Basin were similar to those for the West Clear Creek Basin. This similarity suggests that the small amount of municipal and agricultural development in the upper Salt River and the upper Verde River Basins did not greatly change the basin input flux. For basins with minimal urban and agricultural development, the largest quantifiable source of nitrogen was precipitation, and the largest source of phosphorus was human bodily waste treated by sewer and septic systems. This was in contrast to developed basins, for which fertilizer was the largest quantifiable source of both nutrients. For most basins examined, quantifiable inputs of nitrogen and phosphorus from nonpoint sources were greater than inputs from point sources. This relation emphasizes the importance of land- and water-management policies that protect surface-water resources from nonpoint sources of nutrients as well as from point sources. The amount of nitrogen and phosphorus transpor-ted out of basins was a small fraction of the total for the quantifiable inputs. This result indicated that most of the nutrients input to basins were not transported out of the basins in surface water, but rather were transported to the subsurface (the soil, unsaturated zone, or aquifer), released to the atmosphere (such as volatilized ammonia), or incorporated into the biomass.

Central Arizona Basins study area↗

Scale-dependent factors affecting North American river otter distribution in the midwest

The North American river otter ( Lontra canadensis ) is recovering from near extirpation throughout much of its range. Although reintroductions, trapping regulations and habitat improvements have led to the reestablishment of river otters in the Midwest, little is known about how their distribution is influenced by local- and landscape-scale habitat. We conducted river otter sign surveys from Jan. to Apr. in 2008 and 2009 in eastern Kansas to assess how local- and landscape-scale habitat factors affect river otter occupancy. We surveyed three to nine 400-m stretches of stream and reservoir shorelines for 110 sites and measured local-scale variables ( e.g., stream order, land cover types) within a 100 m buffer of the survey site and landscape-scale variables ( e.g., road density, land cover types) for Hydrological Unit Code 14 watersheds. We then used occupancy models that account for the probability of detection to estimate occupancy as a function of these covariates using Program PRESENCE. The best-fitting model indicated river otter occupancy increased with the proportion of woodland cover and decreased with the proportion of cropland and grassland cover at the local scale. Occupancy also increased with decreased shoreline diversity, waterbody density and stream density at the landscape scale. Occupancy was not affected by land cover or human disturbance at the landscape scale. Understanding the factors and scale important to river otter occurrence will be useful in identifying areas for management and continued restoration.

Kansas↗

Evaluating drought risk of the Red River of the North Basin using historical and stochastic streamflow upstream from Emerson, Manitoba

Drought and its effect on streamflow are important to understand because of the potential to adversely affect water supply, agricultural production, and ecological conditions. The Red River of the North Basin in north-central United States and central Canada is susceptible to dry conditions. During an extended drought, streamflow conditions in the Red River of the North may become inadequate to support existing water supply needs in the basin for agriculture, industry, human use, and aquatic life. To understand potential future low-streamflow conditions in the Red River of the North Basin, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the International Joint Commission, North Dakota Department of Water Resources, Red River Joint Water Resource District, and Red River Watershed Management Board, developed a water-balance model of the Red River of the North Basin upstream from Emerson, Manitoba, Canada, and coupled the model with stochastic weather inputs to simulate possible future low-streamflow conditions. Historical changes in low-streamflow conditions were characterized across the Red River of the North Basin using multiple change-point analysis for 12 streamgages. Across these stations, significant change-point years in 1943 and 1994 marked increases in the magnitude of low-streamflow conditions. During 1920–2015, conversion of primary land (not affected by human use) to agricultural and secondary land was followed by a conversion from smalls grains to corn and soybeans as the dominant crop type. From land-use analysis, 1940–2000 was determined to have relatively stable land use and therefore was used as the calibration period for the water-balance model. A deterministic water-balance model was developed for the Red River of the North Basin upstream from Emerson, Manitoba. The water-balance model was calibrated with data from 37 U.S. Geological Survey streamgages for 1940–2000 and verified using data for 2001–15. The calibrated water-balance model simulated streamflow distributions that mirrored the seasonal patterns of the observed mean monthly streamflow and the standard deviation of the monthly streamflow data, especially during the fall and winter months when streamflow was lowest. For the verification period, during the low-streamflow months of December through January, the difference between simulated and observed data was similar to the calibration comparison and successfully reproduced seasonal trends in the distribution of streamflow, even when using weather data that were outside the calibration period. To determine the future risk of low-streamflow conditions in the Red River of the North Basin, a block-bootstrap method was used to generate multiple possible future climates. These stochastically generated weather time series were then input to a water-balance model to simulate a distribution of possible streamflows. Three sets of experiments were performed, with each experiment containing a set of scenarios. The first set of experiments from the stochastic streamflow model were designed to investigate how changes in reservoir management would affect the distribution of low streamflow. Relative to scenario 1 (present-day [2023] reservoir operation), scenario 2 (no reservoir operation) shifted the low-streamflow frequency curves downward, reducing the annual minimum monthly streamflow for the Emerson subbasin. Subbasins were defined by the contributing area upstream from a selected streamgage station. Relative to scenario 1, scenario 3 (regulated streamflow with an increased reservoir capacity of 10 percent) shifted the low-streamflow frequency curves upward for the Emerson subbasin. The magnitude of this upward shift, caused by increased reservoir capacity, was lower than the magnitude of the shift caused by the absence of the reservoirs, which indicates that the streamflow was most affected when the reservoirs were first constructed. The second set of experiments from the stochastic streamflow model included two scenarios that were performed to better understand how the Red River of the North Basin responds to long periods of low or high precipitation. The results indicate that the model consistently overestimated streamflow, but the relative change between a wet and dry climate state of simulated streamflow distribution reasonably matched the relative change of historical streamflow. Across the subbasins, the model was most accurate for low-streamflow conditions associated with nonexceedance probabilities between 20 and 40 percent. The third set of experiments from the stochastic streamflow model were done to investigate low-streamflow response across the basin to several drought events. Low-end streamflow was reduced when the basin was exposed to a drought, and the magnitude of the reduction increased with longer or more intense droughts. Compared to the low-intensity drought scenarios, the range of percent reductions (as indicated by the interquartile range) was larger for the high-intensity drought scenarios for all subbasins, and the subbasins of Grand Forks and Emerson had a smaller range of reductions compared to the other three subbasins. The larger drainage area—combined with the large contribution of the Red Lake River and several other Minnesota tributaries that generally experience wetter climate conditions—upstream from the Emerson and Grand Forks subbasins may contribute to the smaller range in reductions under the high intensity scenarios. Comparison of the percent reduction in low-end streamflow among subbasins also indicated that the effects of drought duration and intensity could be cumulative. Combining factors of time and intensity produced a larger reduction in streamflow than when each effect was isolated. The array of drought scenarios can be used to determine how a subbasin would respond to multiple possible future conditions. Based on climate predictions, the drought scenario that best matches a future anticipated drought scenario can be used to estimate a low streamflow response for a given subbasin.

Manitoba, Minnesota, North Dakota↗

Modeling distribution of endemic Bartram’s Bass Micropterus sp. cf. coosae: Disturbance and proximity to invasion source increase hybridization with invasive Alabama Bass

“Bartram’s Bass” Micropterus sp. cf. coosae is endemic to the upper Savannah River basin of the southeastern United States and is threatened by hybridization with invasive Alabama Bass Micropterus henshalli . Bartram’s Bass have been functionally extirpated from reservoirs, and hybrid individuals have been detected in several tributaries. However, the extent of introgression in tributaries is currently unknown. Our objectives were to (1) assess the distribution of Bartram’s Bass, native Largemouth Bass M . salmoides , invasive Alabama Bass, and their hybrids in streams of the upper Savannah River basin and (2) quantify effects of abiotic variables on the distribution of each species. We sampled 154 locations in 2017 and 2018 and assigned genetic identity using hydrolysis probes and microsatellites. We used conditional inference trees to quantify variables affecting the occurrence of each species and hybrids. We observed widespread hybridization across the basin. Pure Bartram’s Bass were collected at 27% (42) of sites, among which only 12 sites contained pure Bartram’s Bass and no other congeners. Thirty sites where pure Bartram’s Bass were collected contained hybrids. In the montane Blue Ridge ecoregion, occurrence of pure Bartram’s Bass was negatively affected by low levels of local-scale developed land cover. In the lower-relief Piedmont ecoregion, pure Bartram’s Bass were positively associated with watershed-scale forest land cover and stream gradient. Distance from a reservoir was positively associated with occurrence of pure Bartram’s Bass in both ecoregions. Pure Bartram’s Bass are likely to occur with high probability in only 16% of nonimpounded stream segments; this represents a conservative estimate, and the true number is likely lower. However, future work accounting for incomplete detection of Bartram’s Bass will help to improve confidence in true extirpations. Conservation efforts may be more successful if implemented on stream segments farther from reservoirs or upstream of dispersal barriers preventing colonization of Alabama Bass.

Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina↗

Between- and within-lake responses of macrophyte richness metrics to shoreline developmen

A quatic habitat in littoral environments can be affected by residential development of shoreline areas. We evaluated the relationship between macrophyte richness metrics and shoreline development to quantify indicator response at 2 spatial scales for Minnesota lakes. First, the response of total, submersed, and sensitive species to shoreline development was evaluated within lakes to quantify macrophyte response as a function of distance to the nearest dock. Within-lake analyses using generalized linear mixed models focused on 3 lakes of comparable size with a minimal influence of watershed land use. Survey points farther from docks had higher total species richness and presence of species sensitive to disturbance. Second, between-lake effects of shoreline development on total, submersed, emergent-floating, and sensitive species were evaluated for 1444 lakes. Generalized linear models were developed for all lakes and stratified subsets to control for lake depth and watershed land use. Between-lake analyses indicated a clear response of macrophyte richness metrics to increasing shoreline development, such that fewer emergent-floating and sensitive species were correlated with increasing density of docks. These trends were particularly evident for deeper lakes with lower watershed development. Our results provide further evidence that shoreline development is associated with degraded aquatic habitat, particularly by illustrating the response of macrophyte richness metrics across multiple lake types and different spatial scales.

Minnesota↗

Engineering report on the Grayburg Cooperative and unit area, Eddy County, New Mexico

This report covers the area committed to the Grayburg Cooperative and Unit Agreement (I-Sec. 370) approved by the Assistant Secretary of the Interior on October 5, 1943, hereafter referred to as the "unit area", embracing 4,769.44 acres of public land in T. 17 S., Rs. 29 and 30 E., Eddy County, New Mexico. The area includes portions of the Anderson, Grayburg-Jackson, and Leonard oil fields as defined for proration purposes by the New Mexico Oil Conservation Commission. The unit area is covered by Federal oil and gas leases owned by the Grayburg Oil Company of New Mexico and the Western Production Company, Inc. The Grayburg Unit Association has been formed and designated to conduct and manage all operations in the unit area. As of December 31, 1943, there were forty-six producing oil wells within the unit area. The report has been prepared for the purpose of assisting the Grayburg Unit Association in determining the proper locations of gas-injection wells and the best methods for future operation of the pressure-maintenance system that is being installed for the purpose of retarding the reservoir pressure decline and increasing the ultimate recovery of oil from the Grayburg Zone defined in the above-mentioned agreement as formations not more than 3300 feet below the surface. Data used in the report were obtained from records on file in the Geological Survey office at Roswell, New Mexico, and from the records of the Western Production Company and the Grayburg Oil Company. All data were carefully checked as to accuracy with engineers and field representatives of both companies.

New Mexico↗

Thresholds of lake and reservoir connectivity in river networks control nitrogen removal

Lakes, reservoirs, and other ponded waters are ubiquitous features of the aquatic landscape, yet their cumulative role in nitrogen removal in large river basins is often unclear. Here we use predictive modeling, together with comprehensive river water quality, land use, and hydrography datasets, to examine and explain the influences of more than 18,000 ponded waters on nitrogen removal through river networks of the Northeastern United States. Thresholds in pond density where ponded waters become important features to regional nitrogen removal are identified and shown to vary according to a ponded waters’ relative size, network position, and degree of connectivity to the river network, which suggests worldwide importance of these new metrics. Consideration of the interacting physical and biological factors, along with thresholds in connectivity, reveal where, why, and how much ponded waters function differently than streams in removing nitrogen, what regional water quality outcomes may result, and in what capacity management strategies could most effectively achieve desired nitrogen loading reduction.

Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Maine↗

Design and methods of the Southeast Stream Quality Assessment (SESQA), 2014

During 2014, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water-Quality Assessment Program (NAWQA) assessed stream quality across the Piedmont and southern Appalachian Mountain regions of the southeastern United States. This Southeast Stream Quality Assessment (SESQA) simultaneously characterized watershed and stream-reach water-quality stressors along with instream biological conditions, in order to better understand regional stressor-effects relations. The goal of SESQA is to provide communities and policymakers with information about those human and environmental factors that have the greatest impact on stream quality across the region. The SESQA design focused on hydrologic alteration and urbanization because of their importance as ecological stressors of particular concern to Southeast region resource managers. Streamflow and land-use data were used to identify and select sites representing gradients in urbanization and streamflow alteration across the region. One hundred fifteen sites were selected and sampled for as many as 10 weeks during April, May, and June 2014 for contaminants, nutrients, and sediment. This water-quality “index” period culminated with an ecological survey of habitat, periphyton, benthic macroinvertebrates, and fish at all sites. Sediment was collected during the ecological survey for analysis of sediment chemistry and toxicity testing. Of the 115 sites, 59 were on streams in watersheds with varying degrees of urban land use, 5 were on streams with multiple confined animal feeding operations, and 13 were reference sites with little or no development in their watersheds. The remaining 38 “hydro” sites were on streams in watersheds with relatively little agricultural or urban development but with hydrologic alteration, such as a dam or reservoir. This report provides a detailed description of the SESQA study components, including surveys of ecological conditions, routine water sampling, deployment of passive polar organic compound integrative samplers for pesticides and contaminants of emerging concern, and synoptic sediment sampling and toxicity testing at all urban, confined animal feeding operation, and reference sites. Continuous water-quality monitoring and daily pesticide sampling efforts conducted at a subset of urban sites are also described.

Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, ↗

Water levels in observation wells in Nebraska during 1955

The objective of the dbservation-well program in Nebraska is to provide an evaluation of the status of the ground-water supplies. Many uses for water-.level data are known but not all potential uses can be forseen. Among the important uses are the following: To indicate the status of ground water in storage or in transit and the availability of supplies. To show the trend of ground-water supplies and the outlook for the future. To estimate or forcast the base flow of streams. To indicate areas in which the water level is approaching too close to the land surface (water-logging) or is receding toward economic limits of lift or tow rd impairment by water of poor quality. To provide long-term vidence for evaluating the effectiveness of land-management and water...0 nservation programs in relation to water conservation actually of ected, and for use in basin or "watershed" studies. To provide longterm ontinuous records to serve as a framework to which short-term records collected during intensive investigation may be related. The water level in an observation well functions as a gage to indicate the position of the water table o The water table is defined as the upper surface of the zone of saturation except where that surface is formed by overlying impermeable materials. The water table is also the boundary between the zone of saturation and the zone of aeration. It is not a level surface but is a sloping surface that has many irregularities, and it often conforms in a general way to the land surface. The irregularities are caused by several factors. In places where the recharge to the ground-water reservoir is exceptionally large, the water-table may rise to form a mound from which the water slowly spreads. Depressions or troughs in the water table indicate places where the ground water is discharging, as along streams that are below the normal level of the water table, or indicate places where water is being withdrawn by wells or vegetation. The several factors that influence the water table vary in fact and amount from time to time because of changes in weather and the water requirements of vegetation and man; thus, the water table is nearly always rising or falling. The fluctuations of the water table are shown by the changes in water levels in wells. Thus, the rate and amount of the fluctuation of the water table can be ascertained by observing the water levels in wells, and the magnitude of the several factors effecting the position of the water table can be interpreted by analyzing the water—level data. Water-level measurements are given, in this report, in feet below the land surface at the well site. Water levels that are above land surface are preceded by a plus (+) sign, whereas those below land surface have no sign but are understood to be minus (-). The words "land-surface datum" are abbreviated "lsd" in tables of this report. The altitude above mean sea level (msl) of the land surface at many of the well sites has been determined and is included in the tables of this report. Lower case letters which appear in the table of water level measurements indicate the following: 6', nearby well pumped recently; f, dry; g, measured by outside agency; and j, frozen. Twenty-.six observation wells in Nebraska are equipped with recording gages. Each recording gage produces a continuous graph of water-level fluctuations in the well. Only the lowest water level on the last day of record in each month, as recorded by the gage, is given in this report; the complete record is on file in the office of the U. S. Geological Survey in Lincoln, Nebr.

Nebraska↗

Water levels in observation wells in Nebraska during 1956

The Objective of the observation-well program in Nebraska is to provide an evaluation of the status of the ground-water supplies. Many uses tor water-level data are known but not all potential uses can be foreseen. Among the important uses are the following: (1) To indicate the status of ground water in storage or in transit and the availability or supplies. (2) To show the trend of ground-water supplies and the outlook tor the future. (3) To estimate or forecast the base flow of streams. (4) To indicate areas in which the water level is approaching too close to the land surface (water-logging) or is receding toward economic limits of lift or toward impairment by water of poor quality. (5) To provide long-term evidence for evaluating the effectiveness of land-management and water-conservation programs in relation to water conservation actually effected, and for use in basin or "watershed" studies. (6) To provide long-term continuous records to serve as a framework to which short-term records collected during intensive investigation may be related. The water level in an observation well functions as a gage to indicate the position or the water table. The water table is defined as the upper surface of the zone of saturation except where that surface is formed by overlying impermeable materials. The water table is also the boundary between the zone of saturation and the zone of aeration. It is not a level surface but is a sloping surface that has many irregularities, and it often conforms in a general way to the land surface. The irregularities are caused by several factors. In places where the recharge to the ground-water reservoir is exceptionally large, the water table may rise to form a mound from which the water slowly spreads. Depressions or troughs in the water table indicate places where the ground water is discharging, u along streams that are below the normal level it the water table, or indicate places where water is being withdrawn by wells or vegetation. The several factors that influence the water table vary in fact and amount from time to time because of changes in weather and the water requirements or vegetation and man; thus, the water table is nearly always rising or falling. The fluctuations or the water table are shown by the changes in water levels in wells. Thus, the rate and amount of the fluctuation of the water table can be ascertained by observing the water levels in wells, and the magnitude or the several factors effecting the position of the water table can be interpreted by analyzing the water-level data. Water-level measurements are given, in this report, in feet below the land surface at the well site. Water levels that are above land surface are preceded by a plus (+) sign in the tables, whereas those below land surface have no sign but are understood to be minus (-). The words "land-surface datum" are abbreviated "lsd'' in some places in tables of this report. The altitude above mean sea level (msl) of the land surface at many of the well sites has been determined and is included in the tables or this report. Twenty-eight observation wells in Nebraska are equipped with recording gages. Each recording gage produces a continuous graph of water-level fluctuations in the well. Only the lowest water level on the last day of record in each month, as recorded by the gage, is given in this report; the complete record is on file in the office of the U.S. Geological Survey in Lincoln, Nebr.

Nebraska↗

Ecological interfaces between land and flowing water: Themes and trends in riparian research and management

This paper provides an overview of past, present and future themes for research and management of riparian zones, often relating to papers within this Wetlands Special Feature. Riparian research expanded in the United States around 1980 with themes that recognized (1) damage from excessive livestock, or (2) damage from river damming and diversion, and (3) the beneficial capacity of riparian buffers to intercept and assimilate nutrients and other water contaminants. Research expanded globally in the 1990s, with themes including (4) plant life history requirements and (5) reliance on fluvial geomorphic dynamics that enable riparian rejuvenation. Resource managers recognized that riparian areas provide (6) rich wildlife habitats (7) along with valued ecosystem services, (8) which encouraged conservation and restoration initiatives, (9) including environmental flow regimes. Floodplains are (10) vulnerable to invasive plants and management has included biocontrol such as for Tamarix in the American Southwest. Into the twenty-first century, (11) climate change is advancing, and riparian ecosystems may be especially impacted due to the compound challenges from increasing water demand and declining summer flows. As an emerging opportunity, (12) while reservoirs submerge floodplain vegetation, reservoir deltas may support compensatory riparian wetlands. (13) Studies increasingly utilize remote sensing tools including satellite imagery, LiDAR and unmanned aircraft systems, and (14) the coordination of large data sets invites digital ecology, including artificial intelligence and machine learning. Since riparian zones are centres for human activities, (15) there are opportunities for citizen science, social media and internet applications, which will increasingly democratize riparian research and management.

Wetlands↗