Geology Reports⌕ Search

SEARCH · Geology Reports

Results for “Journal of Risk Research”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 163 records · Page 9Linked to original sources
USGS2025

The communication of volcano information in New Zealand - A narrative review

Communication of volcano information is critical for effective volcanic risk management. A variety of information is communicated to inform decisions and guide actions for planning, preparedness, and response. Such information needs to be reliable, and fit-for-purpose across different stages of volcanic activity (quiescence, unrest, short or long-term eruptive stages, and the post-eruptive stage). However, an understanding of communication across these different stages of volcanic activity remains limited. We undertook a narrative review of New Zealand literature to explore what information is communicated about volcanoes, across which stages of activity and by whom. Results highlight that NZ literature only documents certain aspects of volcano information and communication, specifically regarding certain locations, stages of volcanic activity (i.e. quiescence or unrest), or hazards. Literature gaps exist regarding volcano communication during unrest and post-eruptive stages, as well as how volcano information evolves between these phases, and how decision-makers use such information. Additional work would be useful to document existing examples of volcano information for different stages of activity. Further research could help in understanding the information needs of decision-makers during each of these stages to improve information and communication.

New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics↗
USGS2016

Probabilistic assessment of erosion and flooding risk in the northern Gulf of Mexico

We assess erosion and flooding risk in the northern Gulf of Mexico by identifying interdependencies among oceanographic drivers and probabilistically modeling the resulting potential for coastal change. Wave and water level observations are used to determine relationships between six hydrodynamic parameters that influence total water level and therefore erosion and flooding, through consideration of a wide range of univariate distribution functions and multivariate elliptical copulas. Using these relationships, we explore how different our interpretation of the present-day erosion/flooding risk could be if we had seen more or fewer extreme realizations of individual and combinations of parameters in the past by simulating 10,000 physically and statistically consistent sea-storm time series. We find that seasonal total water levels associated with the 100 year return period could be up to 3 m higher in summer and 0.6 m higher in winter relative to our best estimate based on the observational records. Impact hours of collision and overwash—where total water levels exceed the dune toe or dune crest elevations—could be on average 70% (collision) and 100% (overwash) larger than inferred from the observations. Our model accounts for non-stationarity in a straightforward, non-parametric way that can be applied (with little adjustments) to many other coastlines. The probabilistic model presented here, which accounts for observational uncertainty, can be applied to other coastlines where short record lengths limit the ability to identify the full range of possible wave and water level conditions that coastal mangers and planners must consider to develop sustainable management strategies.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans↗
USGS2010

Occurrence of herbicides and pharmaceutical and personal care products in surface water and groundwater around Liberty Bay, Puget Sound, Washington

Organic contaminants, such as pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs), pose a risk to water quality and the health of ecosystems. This study was designed to determine if a coastal community lacking point sources, such as waste water treatment plant effluent, could release PPCPs, herbicides, and plasticizers at detectable levels to their surface water and groundwater. Research was conducted in Liberty Bay, an embayment within Puget Sound, where 70% of the population (∼10,000) uses septic systems. Sampling included collection of groundwater and surface water with grab samples and the use of polar organic chemical integrative samplers (POCIS). We analyzed for a broad spectrum of 25 commonly used compounds, including PPCPs, herbicides, and a flame retardant. Twelve contaminants were detected at least once; only N,N-diethyl-meta-toluamide, caffeine, and mecoprop, a herbicide not attributed to septic systems, were detected in more than one grab sample. The use of POCIS was essential because contaminants were present at very low levels (nanograms), which is common for PPCPs in general, but particularly so in such a small community. The use of POCIS allowed the detection of five compounds that were not present in grab samples. Data suggest that the community is contaminating local water with PPCPs; this effect is likely to increase as the population and product usage increase. The results presented here are a first step toward assessing the transport of herbicides and PPCPs into this coastal system.

Washington↗
USGS2013

Forecasting the effects of coastal protection and restoration projects on wetland morphology in coastal Louisiana under multiple environmental uncertainty scenarios

Few landscape scale models have assessed the effects of coastal protection and restoration projects on wetland morphology while taking into account important uncertainties in environmental factors such as sea-level rise (SLR) and subsidence. In support of Louisiana's 2012 Coastal Master Plan, we developed a spatially explicit wetland morphology model and coupled it with other predictive models. The model is capable of predicting effects of protection and restoration projects on wetland area, landscape configuration, surface elevation, and soil organic carbon (SOC) storage under multiple environmental uncertainty scenarios. These uncertainty scenarios included variability in parameters such as eustatic SLR (ESLR), subsidence rate, and Mississippi River discharge. Models were run for a 2010–2060 simulation period. Model results suggest that under a “future-without-action” condition (FWOA), coastal Louisiana is at risk of losing between 2118 and 4677 km 2 of land over the next 50 years, but with protection and restoration projects proposed in the Master Plan, between 40% and 75% of that loss could be mitigated. Moreover, model results indicate that under a FWOA condition, SOC storage (to a depth of 1 m) could decrease by between 108 and 250 million metric tons, a loss of 12% to 30% of the total coastwide SOC, but with the Master Plan implemented, between 35% and 74% of the SOC loss could be offset. Long-term maintenance of project effects was best attained in areas of low SLR and subsidence, with a sediment source to support marsh accretion. Our findings suggest that despite the efficacy of restoration projects in mitigating losses in certain areas, net loss of wetlands in coastal Louisiana is likely to continue. Model results suggest certain areas may eventually be lost regardless of proposed restoration investment, and, as such, other techniques and strategies of adaptation may have to be utilized in these areas.

Louisiana↗
USGS2021

Contrasting patterns of demography and population viability among gopher tortoise (Gopherus polyphemus) populations at the species’ northern range edge

Population viability analyses are useful tools to predict abundance and extinction risk for imperiled species. In southeastern North America, the federally threatened gopher tortoise ( Gopherus polyphemus ) is a keystone species in the diverse and imperiled longleaf pine ( Pinus palustris ) ecosystem, and researchers have suggested that tortoise populations are declining and characterized by high extinction risk. We report results from a 30-year demographic study of gopher tortoises in southern Alabama (1991–2020), where 3 populations have been stable and 3 others have declined. To better understand the demographic vital rates associated with stable and declining tortoise populations, we used a multi-state hierarchical mark-recapture model to estimate sex- and stage-specific patterns of demographic vital rates at each population. We then built a predictive population model to project population dynamics and evaluate extinction risk in a population viability context. Population structure did not change significantly in stable populations, but juveniles became less abundant in declining populations over 30 years. Apparent survival varied by age, sex, and site; adults had higher survival than juveniles, but female survival was substantially lower in declining populations than in stable ones. Using simulations, we predicted that stable populations with high female survival would persist over the next 100 years but sites with lower female survival would decline, become male-biased, and be at high risk of extirpation. Stable populations were most sensitive to changes in apparent survival of adult females. Because local populations varied greatly in vital rates, our analysis improves upon previous demographic models for northern populations of gopher tortoises by accounting for population-level variation in demographic patterns and, counter to previous model predictions, suggests that small tortoise populations can persist when habitat is managed effectively. © 2021 The Wildlife Society.

Alabama↗
USGS2023

Contaminant risks in consuming fish from the Area of Concern in the Upper Niagara River

The lack of contemporary data on contaminants in resident fish prevents an analysis of temporal trends in contaminant concentrations and the present-day status of the “Restrictions on Fish and Wildlife Consumption” Beneficial Use Impairment (BUI) in the Niagara River Area of Concern (AOC). During 2018, concentrations of 260 contaminants in four groups of fish species from five areas in or near the upper Niagara River AOC were analyzed to determine the potential risks from fish consumption, responses to remediation in an adjacent AOC, and whether additional remedial actions were warranted in this AOC. The concentrations of most contaminants were generally undetectable or did not exceed established Federal, State, or European Union fish-consumption limits. Several contaminants without State or Federal limits exceeded European Union fish-consumption guidelines in some species and areas. High PCB residues in many bullhead from Scajaquada Creek, some bass from Hoyt Lake, and most common carp from all areas surpassed certain New York and Federal fish-consumption limits and indicate PCBs continue to restrict fish consumption at most study areas. High concentrations of several contaminants in resident fish, especially dioxins and furans in carp, from Cayuga Creek indicate that additional scrutiny of consumption advisories is warranted in this area. Because this study provides a snapshot in time of fish-contaminant data from five areas, additional data from other areas and times, and more detailed information on present-day pollutant sources may be needed before determining the status of the fish-consumption BUI in this AOC.

New York↗
USGS1998

Grizzly bears and calving caribou: What is the relation with river corridors?

Researchers have debated the effect of the Trans-Alaska Pipeline (TAP) and associated developments to caribou ( Rangifer tarandus ) of the central Arctic herd (CAH) since the 1970s. Several studies have demonstrated that cows and calves of the CAH avoided the TAP corridor because of disturbance associated with the pipeline, whereas others have indicated that female caribou of the CAH avoided riparian habitats closely associated with the pipeline. This avoidance was explained as a predator-avoidance strategy. We investigated the relation between female caribou and grizzly bear ( Ursus arctos ) use of river corridors on the yet undisturbed calving grounds of the Porcupine caribou herd (PCH) in northeastern Alaska. On the coastal plain, caribou were closer to river corridors than expected (P = 0.038), but bear use of river corridors did not differ from expected (P = 0.740). In the foothills, caribou use of river corridors did not differ from expected (P = 0.520), but bears were farther from rivers than expected (P = 0.001). Our results did not suggest an avoidance of river corridors by calving caribou or a propensity for bears to be associated with riparian habitats, presumably for stalking or ambush cover. We propose that PCH caribou reduce the risks of predation to neonates by migrating to a common calving grounds, where predator swamping is the operational antipredator strategy. Consequently, we hypothesize that nutritional demands, not predator avoidance strategies, ultimately regulate habitat use patterns (e.g., use of river corridors) of calving PCH caribou.

Alaska↗
USGS2008

Scientific and public responses to the ongoing volcanic crisis at Popocatépetl Volcano, Mexico: Importance of an effective hazards-warning system

Volcanic eruptions and other potentially hazardous natural phenomena occur independently of any human actions. However, such phenomena can cause disasters when a society fails to foresee the hazardous manifestations and adopt adequate measures to reduce its vulnerability. One of the causes of such a failure is the lack of a consistent perception of the changing hazards posed by an ongoing eruption, i.e., with members of the scientific community, the Civil Protection authorities and the general public having diverging notions about what is occurring and what may happen. The problem of attaining a perception of risk as uniform as possible in a population measured in millions during an evolving eruption requires searching for communication tools that can describe—as simply as possible—the relations between the level of threat posed by the volcano, and the level of response of the authorities and the public. The hazards-warning system adopted at Popocatépetl Volcano, called the Volcanic Traffic Light Alert System (VTLAS), is a basic communications protocol that translates volcano threat into seven levels of preparedness for the emergency-management authorities, but only three levels of alert for the public (color coded green–yellow–red). The changing status of the volcano threat is represented as the most likely scenarios according to the opinions of an official scientific committee analyzing all available data. The implementation of the VTLAS was intended to reduce the possibility of ambiguous interpretations of intermediate levels by the endangered population. Although the VTLAS is imperfect and has not solved all problems involved in mass communication and decision-making during a volcanic crisis, it marks a significant advance in the management of volcanic crises in Mexico.

Popocatepetl Volcano↗
USGS2015

An evaluation of the efficiency of minnow traps for estimating the abundance of minnows in desert spring systems

Desert springs are sensitive aquatic ecosystems that pose unique challenges to natural resource managers and researchers. Among the most important of these is the need to accurately quantify population parameters for resident fish, particularly when the species are of special conservation concern. We evaluated the efficiency of baited minnow traps for estimating the abundance of two at-risk species, Foskett Speckled Dace Rhinichthys osculus ssp. and Borax Lake Chub Gila boraxobius , in desert spring systems in southeastern Oregon. We evaluated alternative sample designs using simulation and found that capture–recapture designs with four capture occasions would maximize the accuracy of estimates and minimize fish handling. We implemented the design and estimated capture and recapture probabilities using the Huggins closed-capture estimator. Trap capture probabilities averaged 23% and 26% for Foskett Speckled Dace and Borax Lake Chub, respectively, but differed substantially among sample locations, through time, and nonlinearly with fish body size. Recapture probabilities for Foskett Speckled Dace were, on average, 1.6 times greater than (first) capture probabilities, suggesting “trap-happy” behavior. Comparison of population estimates from the Huggins model with the commonly used Lincoln–Petersen estimator indicated that the latter underestimated Foskett Speckled Dace and Borax Lake Chub population size by 48% and by 20%, respectively. These biases were due to variability in capture and recapture probabilities. Simulation of fish monitoring that included the range of capture and recapture probabilities observed indicated that variability in capture and recapture probabilities in time negatively affected the ability to detect annual decreases by up to 20% in fish population size. Failure to account for variability in capture and recapture probabilities can lead to poor quality data and study inferences. Therefore, we recommend that fishery researchers and managers employ sample designs and estimators that can account for this variability.

Oregon↗
USGS2004

Terrestrial movements of juvenile and adult tailed frogs in relation to timber harvest in coastal British Columbia

Tailed frog (Ascaphus truei Stejneger) populations are at risk in much of the Pacific Northwest, and recolonization of sites may be slow postlogging. To examine the terrestrial movements of Ascaphus in clearcuts and old growth, we employed pitfall traps and drift-fence arrays installed along streams and 100 m into upland habitat. In the fall, we captured frogs farther from streams in old growth than in clearcuts, and more frogs were captured a??25 m from streams in clearcuts. Stronger stream affinity in clearcuts was most evident with juvenile frogs, which exhibited more upstream movements than adults. Compared with inland sites where frogs remained close to streams (e.g., 12 m), frogs at our coastal sites were captured at greater distances from streams (a?Y100 m), having lower stream affinity than frogs at inland sites. Long-distance overland movements appear more likely where forested stands are present. Aggregations of Ascaphus at individual streams may not represent distinct populations and should not be managed as distinct units. Preserving groups of interconnected streams within watersheds instead of individual streams will improve the conservation status of Ascaphus. Population monitoring can ensure conservation measures promote long-term persistence.

Canadian Journal of Forest Research↗
USGS2022

Considerations for creating equitable and inclusive communication campaigns associated with ShakeAlert, the earthquake early warning system for the West Coast of the USA

Purpose The 2019 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR) cites earthquakes as the most damaging natural hazard globally, causing billions of dollars of damage and killing thousands of people. Earthquakes have the potential to drastically impact physical, social and economic landscapes; to reduce this risk, earthquake early warning (EEW) systems have been developed. However, these technical EEW systems do not operate in a vacuum; the inequities in social systems, along with the needs of diverse populations, must be considered when developing these systems and their associated communication campaigns. Design/methodology/approach This article reviews aspects of social vulnerability as they relate to ShakeAlert, the EEW system for the USA. The authors identified two theories (relationship management theory and mute group theory) to inform self-reflective questions for agencies managing campaigns for EEW systems, which can assist in the development of more inclusive communication practices. Finally, the authors suggest this work contributes to important conversations about diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) issues within early warning systems and earthquake preparedness campaigns in general. Findings To increase inclusivity, Macnamara (2012) argues that self-reflective questioning while analyzing perspective, philosophy and approaches for a campaign can help. Specific to EEW campaigns, developers may find self-reflective questions a useful approach to increase inclusion. These questions are guided by two theories and are explored in the paper. Research limitations/implications Several research limitations exist. First, this work explores two theories to develop a combined theoretical model for self-reflective questions. Further research is required to determine if this approach and the combination of these two theories have adequately informed the development of the reflective questions. Orginality/value The authors could find little peer-reviewed work examining DEI for EEW systems, and ShakeAlert in particular. While articles on early warning systems exist that explore aspects of this, EEW and ShakeAlert, with its very limited time frames for warnings, creates unique challenges.

West Coast↗
USGS2024

Efficacy of non-lead ammunition distribution programs to offset fatalities of golden eagles in southeast Wyoming

Golden eagles ( Aquila chrysaetos ) face many anthropogenic risks including illegal shooting, electrocution, collision with wind turbines and vehicles, and lead poisoning. Minimizing or offsetting eagle deaths resulting from human-caused sources is often viewed as an important management objective. Despite understanding the leading anthropogenic sources of eagle fatalities, existing scientific research supports few practical solutions to mitigate these causes of death. We implemented a non-lead ammunition distribution program in southeast Wyoming, USA, and evaluated its effectiveness as a compensatory mitigation action to offset incidental take (i.e., fatalities) of golden eagles at wind energy facilities. In 2020 and 2022, we distributed non-lead ammunition to 699 hunters with big-game tags specific to our >400,000-ha study area. These hunters harvested 296 pronghorn ( Antilocapra americana ), 14 deer ( Odocoileus spp.), and 33 elk ( Cervus canadensis ) in the study area, which accounted for 6.9% and 6.5% of the harvest in these hunt units in 2020 and 2022, respectively. We used road surveys in 2020 to estimate a density of 0.036 (95% CI = 0.018–0.058) golden eagles/km 2 during the big game hunting season in our study area. Model output suggests that our non-lead ammunition distribution program offset the fatality of 3.84 (95% CI = 1.06–23.72) eagles over the course of these 2 hunting seasons. Our work illustrates the potential usefulness of non-lead ammunition distribution programs as an action to mitigate eagle fatalities caused by wind facilities or other anthropogenic causes of death.

Wyoming↗
USGS2019

Spatial fingerprinting of biogenic and anthropogenic volatile organic compounds in an arid unsaturated zone

Subsurface volatile organic compounds (VOCs) can pose risks to human and environmental health and mediate biological processes. VOCs have both anthropogenic and biogenic origins, but the relative importance of these sources has not been explored in subsurface environments. This study synthesizes 17 years of VOC data from the Amargosa Desert Research Site (ADRS) with the goal of improving understanding of spatial and temporal variations that distinguish sources of VOCs from a landfill and surrounding ambient sources including biogenic VOCs (bVOCs). Gas samples were collected from 1999 to 2016 from an array of shallow sample points (0.5 m and 1.5 m depth) and from vertical profiles at three deep boreholes, two (109 m deep) near the border of a waste facility (33 and 100 m distant), and one (29 m deep) in a remote area 3 km to the south. Samples were analyzed for target VOCs and a subset was analyzed for non-target VOCs to enumerate a greater variety of potential bVOCs. Principal components analysis of the target and non-target VOCs provided an assessment of spatial variability of VOCs originating from the landfill site and from ambient sources. Ambient VOCs occurred at all sample sites over a range of depths and most were consistent with biogenic origins, indicating, for the first time, presence of bVOCs in the deep unsaturated zone. Because some VOCs have both anthropogenic and biogenic sources, discrimination of sources can be important for estimating the extent and migration of anthropogenic plumes in arid unsaturated zones.

Nevada↗
USGS2025

Wet antecedent soil moisture increases atmospheric river streamflow magnitudes non-linearly

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) drive most riverine floods on the United States (U.S.) West Coast. However, estimating flood risk based solely on AR intensity and duration is challenging because precipitation phase, antecedent conditions, and physical watershed characteristics (e.g., slope and soil depth) can influence the magnitude of floods. Here, we analyze how antecedent soil moisture (ASM) conditions contribute to variability in streamflow during AR events and how that changes across climatic regimes and physiography in 122 U.S. West Coast watersheds. We identify a robust non-linear relationship between streamflow and ASM during ARs in 89% of watersheds. The inflection point in this relationship represents a watershed-specific critical ASM threshold, above which event maximum streamflow is, on average, two to four and a half times larger. Wet ASM conditions amplify the hydrologic impacts of more frequent but weaker, lower moisture transport AR events, while dry ASM conditions attenuate the hydrologic impacts that stronger, higher moisture transport AR events could otherwise cause. Our research shows that watersheds prone to ASM-amplified streamflows have higher evaporation ratios, lower cold-season precipitation, lower snow-to-rain ratios, and shallower, clay-rich soils. Higher evaporation and lower precipitation lead to greater ASM variability during the cold season, increasing streamflow during wet periods and buffering streamflow during dry periods. Lower snow fraction and shallower soils limit the antecedent water storage capacity of a watershed, contributing to greater sensitivity of streamflow peaks to ASM variability. Incorporating ASM thresholds into hydrologic models in these regions prone to AR-amplified streamflow could improve forecasts and decrease uncertainty.

California, Nevada, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2023

Water and endangered fish in the Klamath River Basin: Do Upper Klamath Lake surface elevation and water quality affect adult Lost River and Shortnose Sucker survival?

In the western United States, water allocation decisions often incorporate the needs of endangered fish. In the Klamath River basin, an understanding of temporal variation in annual survival rates of Shortnose Suckers Chasmistes brevirostris and Lost River Suckers Deltistes luxatus and their relation to environmental drivers is critical to water management and sucker recovery. Extinction risk is high for these fish because most individuals in the populations are approaching their maximum life span and recruitment of new fish into the adult populations has never exceeded mortality losses in the past 22 years. We used a time series of mark–recapture data from the years 1999–2021 to analyze the relationship between lake level, water quality covariates, and survival of adult Shortnose Suckers and two spawning populations of Lost River Suckers in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon. We compared competing model hypotheses in a maximum likelihood framework using Akaike's information criterion and then ran the top environmental covariates in a Bayesian framework to estimate how much of the variation in survival was explained by these covariates as compared to random variation. The complementary analyses found almost unequivocal support for our base model without environmental covariates. Estimated adult sucker survival was high across the time series and consistent with sucker life history (mean annual survival = 0.82–0.91). This suggests that adult suckers were generally robust to interannual variation in lake levels as well as consistently poor water quality within the years of our data set. Recovery time is limited, as a declining survival trend for adult suckers in recent years may be due to the onset of senescence. The successful recovery of suckers in Upper Klamath Lake may rely on shifting research from the causes of adult mortality and its relationship with lake surface elevation to the causes of poor recruitment into adult populations.

California, Oregon↗
USGS2018

Multi-year high-frequency hydrothermal monitoring of selected high-threat Cascade Range volcanoes

From 2009 to 2015 the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) systematically monitored hydrothermal behavior at selected Cascade Range volcanoes in order to define baseline hydrothermal and geochemical conditions. Gas and water data were collected regularly at 25 sites on 10 of the highest-risk volcanoes in the Cascade Range. These sites include near-summit fumarole groups and springs/streams that show clear evidence of magmatic influence (high 3 He/ 4 He ratios and/or large fluxes of magmatic CO 2 or heat). Site records consist mainly of hourly temperature and hydrothermal-flux data. Having established baseline conditions during a multiyear quiescent period, the USGS reduced monitoring frequency from 2015 to present. The archived monitoring data are housed at (doi:10.5066/F72N5088). These data (1) are suitable for retrospective comparison with other continuous geophysical monitoring data and (2) will provide context during future episodes of volcanic unrest, such that unrest-related variations at these thoroughly characterized sites will be more clearly recognizable. Relatively high-frequency year-round data are essential to achieve these objectives, because many of the time series reveal significant diurnal, seasonal, and inter-annual variability that would tend to mask unrest signals in the absence of baseline data. Here we characterize normal variability for each site, suggest strategies to detect future volcanic unrest, and explore deviations from background associated with recent unrest.

California, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS1997

Statistical modeling of agricultural chemical occurrence in midwestern rivers

Agricultural chemicals in surface water may constitute a human health risk or have adverse effects on aquatic life. Recent research on unregulated rivers in the midwestern USA documents that elevated concentrations of herbicides occur for 1-4 months following application in late spring and early summer. In contrast, nitrate concentrations in unregulated rivers are elevated during fall, winter, and spring months. Natural and anthropogenic variables of fiver drainage basins, such as soil permeability, amount of agricultural chemicals applied, or percentage of land planted in corn, affect agricultural chemical concentration and mass transport in rivers. Presented is an analysis of selected data on agricultural chemicals collected for three regional studies conducted by the US Geological Survey. Statistical techniques such as multiple linear and logistic regression were used to identify natural and anthropogenic variables of drainage basins that have strong relations to agricultural chemical concentrations and mass transport measured in rivers. A geographic information system (GIS) was used to manage and analyze spatial data. Statistical models were developed that estimated the concentration, annual transport, and annual mean concentration of selected agricultural chemicals in midwestern rivers. Multiple linear regression models were not very successful (R2 from 0.162 to 0.517) in explaining the variance in observed agricultural chemical concentrations during post-planting runoff. Logistic regression models were somewhat more successful, correctly matching the observed concentration category in 61-80% of observations. Linear and multiple linear regression models were moderately successful (R2 from 0.522 to 0.995) in explaining the variance in observed annual transport and annual mean concentration of agricultural chemicals. Explanatory variables that were commonly significant in the regression models include estimates of agricultural chemical use, crop acreage, soil characteristics, and basin topography.

Journal of Hydrology↗
USGS2017

Spatial demographic models to inform conservation planning of golden eagles in renewable energy landscapes

Spatial demographic models can help guide monitoring and management activities targeting at-risk species, even in cases where baseline data are lacking. Here, we provide an example of how site-specific changes in land use and anthropogenic stressors can be incorporated into a spatial demographic model to investigate effects on population dynamics of Golden Eagles ( Aquila chrysaetos ). Our study focused on a population of Golden Eagles exposed to risks associated with rapid increases in renewable energy development in southern California, U.S.A. We developed a spatially explicit, individual-based simulation model that integrated empirical data on demography of Golden Eagles with spatial data on the arrangement of nesting habitats, prey resources, and planned renewable energy development sites. Our model permitted simulated eagles of different stage-classes to disperse, establish home ranges, acquire prey resources, prospect for breeding sites, and reproduce. The distribution of nesting habitats, prey resources, and threats within each individual's home range influenced movement, reproduction, and survival. We used our model to explore potential effects of alternative disturbance scenarios, and proposed conservation strategies, on the future distribution and abundance of Golden Eagles in the study region. Results from our simulations suggest that probable increases in mortality associated with renewable energy infrastructure (e.g., collisions with wind turbines and vehicles, electrocution on power poles) could have negative consequences for population trajectories, but that site-specific conservation actions could reduce the magnitude of negative effects. Our study demonstrates the use of a flexible and expandable modeling framework to incorporate spatially dependent processes when determining relative effects of proposed management options to Golden Eagles and their habitats.

California↗