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USGS1998

Environmental impacts on the southern Florida coastal waters: A history of change in Florida Bay

Analyses of four cores located in the northern transitional, eastern, and central portions of Florida Bay reveal historical patterns of change in salinity and seagrass distribution. Salinity and the distribution of seagrass beds are two critical issues for the restoration of Florida Bay. The distribution of benthic fauna in Bob Allen 6A and Russell Bank 19B cores illustrates changes in environmental parameters prior to 1900. Natural fluctuations occur in salinity, but the amplitude of those fluctuations was limited to a 15–20% shift about the mean. Subtle changes occur in the benthic fauna around 1910, but beginning around 1940, the pattern of salinity fluctuation departs substantially from the pre-1900 pattern. Post-1940, the salinity oscillates 40–60% about the mean. This pattern is seen in all indicators measured. Around 1970, a significant but short term decline occurred in salinity. The Taylor Creek T24 core from the northern transitional zone reflects changes in freshwater flow that have occurred during this century. The upper portion of the core records a significant increase in salinity, with a slight decrease occurring in recent years. The Pass Key 37 core represents an area of very high sedimentation rates; an increase in salinity occurs in the upper portion of the core. Natural fluctuations in seagrass distribution are inferred from the shifts in relative abundance of epiphytal species preserved in the cores. All four cores show an increase in epiphytes and therefore in seagrass coverage during this century. An increase also occurs in epiphytal species that can dwell on either Thalassia or macro-algal mats associated with Thalassia beds. These data suggest an increase in algal-mats has occurred during this century. The Bob Allen 6A core records an extensive period during the 1800's of little to no vegetative cover of the substrate based on the near absence of epiphytic species in that segment of the core. Following this period, the epiphytal species increase rapidly in abundance, implying that vegetation may have the ability to disseminate rapidly.

Florida↗

USGS2012

The McKinley Sequence of granitic rocks: A key element in the accretionary history of southern Alaska

The McKinley sequence of granitic rocks consists of several discrete plutons in the central Alaska Range. Most of these plutons crop out south of the Denali fault system (DFS) in the Talkeetna quadrangle. Plutons of the McKinley sequence largely intrude deformed upper Meszoic flysch between the DFS and the northern edges of Wrangellia and the Peninsular terrane, which jointly make up the Talkeetna superterrane. The average K-Ar age of biotite from nine granites of the McKinley sequence is 57.3 Ma; Rb-Sr data for whole rock samples indicate that the McKinley sequence cannot be older than 60 Ma. A selected suite of 20 samples of granite and granodiorite range in SiO 2 from 65.9 to 77.6%. All 20 samples are corundum normative, and 18 are moderately peraluminous. Initial 87 Sr/ 86 Sr ratios range from 0.7054 to 0.7085. The σ 18 O values range from +11.2 to +14.6‰. These high and variable Sr isotopic ratios, peraluminous nature, rare earth element patterns, and high σ 18 O values suggest that granitic rocks of the McKinley sequence crystallized from hybrid magmas produced by assimilation of sedimentary rocks by a mantle-derived melt. Mesozoic flysch is the likely source of the crustal component of the hybrid magmas. Geologic evidence suggests that the Talkeetna superterrane collided with stable Alaska after Early Cretaceous time. The flysch basin, lying south of stable Alaska, was closed by northward movement of the Talkeetna superterrane; maximum age for basin closure and terrane accretion is middle Cretaceous (Cenomanian). Paleomagnetic evidence indicates that all terranes north of the DFS have been part of stable Alaska since the Paleocene and that northward movement of Wrangellia was completed by 50 Ma. Granitic rocks of the McKinley sequence may be products of terrane accretion; the granitic rocks crystallized from hybrid magmas produced during terrane collision and deformation of the flysch basin. Isotopic ages of the McKinley sequence establish the time of final accretion of the Talkeetna superterrane as Paleocene.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗

USGS2013

Ecological feedbacks can reduce population-level efficacy of wildlife fertility control

1. Anthropogenic stress on natural systems, particularly the fragmentation of landscapes and the extirpation of predators from food webs, has intensified the need to regulate abundance of wildlife populations with management. Controlling population growth using fertility control has been considered for almost four decades, but nearly all research has focused on understanding effects of fertility control agents on individual animals. Questions about the efficacy of fertility control as a way to control populations remain largely unanswered. 2. Collateral consequences of contraception can produce unexpected changes in birth rates, survival, immigration and emigration that may reduce the effectiveness of regulating animal abundance. The magnitude and frequency of such effects vary with species-specific social and reproductive systems, as well as connectivity of populations. Developing models that incorporate static demographic parameters from populations not controlled by contraception may bias predictions of fertility control efficacy. 3. Many population-level studies demonstrate that changes in survival and immigration induced by fertility control can compensate for the reduction in births caused by contraception. The most successful cases of regulating populations using fertility control come from applications of contraceptives to small, closed populations of gregarious and easily accessed species. 4. Fertility control can result in artificial selection pressures on the population and may lead to long-term unintentional genetic consequences. The magnitude of such selection is dependent on individual heritability and behavioural traits, as well as environmental variation. 5. Synthesis and applications . Understanding species' life-history strategies, biology, behavioural ecology and ecological context is critical to developing realistic expectations of regulating populations using fertility control. Before time, effort and funding are invested in wildlife contraception, managers may need to consider the possibility that many species and populations can compensate for reduction in fecundity, and this could minimize any reduction in population growth rate.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2022

Activity patterns of Hawaiian forest birds in a fragmented and continuous landscape

Activity patterns are a key component of avian life history and behavior, and decisions about how activity periods are structured can have important fitness implications. Despite the importance of activity patterns, individual variability in activity is poorly studied in small birds. We used automated radio telemetry to track Hawaiian forest birds from three dietary guilds in a continuous forest, and in a similar forest that was naturally fragmented in the 1800s by lava flows but supports stable populations of native birds. We generated kernel density profiles of activity (KDEs) over the full tracking period of each bird and used the KDEs to derive seven activity metrics that characterized daily activity patterns. We identified three distinct activity strategies using a cluster analysis of the activity metrics and assessed day-to-day variability in activity strategy to understand intraindividual consistency in activity behavior. We also evaluated the influence of landscape structure, dietary guild and sex on the suite of activity metrics using constrained ordination. Most birds (61%) exhibited high levels of sustained activity throughout the day, while 23% showed irregular activity most of the day followed by a peak in the late afternoon, and 16% were mainly active in the morning. Though activity patterns varied by sex and dietary guild, landscape structure had the strongest influence on activity patterns. Birds sustained high levels of activity throughout the day in the fragmented landscape regardless of dietary guild, suggesting they needed to be more active to obtain necessary resources. However, activity patterns of birds in the fragmented landscape varied more day-to-day, indicating they retained a method for adjusting behavior to match internal and external conditions. This study reveals how a diverse suite of tropical birds has adapted to long-term fragmentation in Hawaiʻi and demonstrates the utility of automated radio telemetry for studying the activity strategies of birds.

Hawaii↗

USGS2020

Mate fidelity improves survival and breeding propensity of a long‐lived bird

Evolutionary and behavioural ecologists have long been interested in factors shaping the variation in mating behaviour observed in nature. Although much of the research on this topic has focused on the consequences of mate choice and mate change on annual reproductive success, studies of a potential positive link between mate fidelity and adult demographic rates have been comparatively rare. This is particularly true for long‐lived birds with multi‐year, socially monogamous pair bonds. We used a 26‐year capture–mark–recapture dataset of 3,330 black brent Branta bernicla nigricans to test whether breeding with a familiar mate improved future breeding propensity and survival. We predicted that experienced breeders nesting with a new partner would have rates of survival similar to familiar pairs because long‐lived species avoid jeopardizing survival since their lifetime fitness is sensitive to this vital rate. In contrast, we expected that any costs of breeding with a new partner would be paid through skipping the subsequent breeding attempt. We found that unfamiliar pairs had lower subsequent breeding propensity than faithful partners. However, contrary to our expectations, individuals breeding with a new mate also suffered reduced survival. These results add to a small number of studies indicating that a positive relationship between mate retention and adult demographic rates may exist in a diverse array of avian species. Given these results, researchers should consider costs of mate change that extend beyond within‐season reproductive success to fully understand the potential adaptive basis for perennial social monogamy. We caution that if mate retention enhances survival prospects, improvements in annual reproductive success with pair‐bond length could be a secondary factor favouring perennial social monogamy, particularly in species with slower life‐history strategies. Furthermore, some cases where annual reproductive success does not improve with pair‐bond duration, yet multi‐year pair bonds are common, could be explained by benefits afforded by mate fidelity to adult vital rates.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗

USGS2011

The human dimension of fire regimes on Earth

Humans and their ancestors are unique in being a fire‐making species, but ‘natural’ (i.e. independent of humans) fires have an ancient, geological history on Earth. Natural fires have influenced biological evolution and global biogeochemical cycles, making fire integral to the functioning of some biomes. Globally, debate rages about the impact on ecosystems of prehistoric human‐set fires, with views ranging from catastrophic to negligible. Understanding of the diversity of human fire regimes on Earth in the past, present and future remains rudimentary. It remains uncertain how humans have caused a departure from ‘natural’ background levels that vary with climate change. Available evidence shows that modern humans can increase or decrease background levels of natural fire activity by clearing forests, promoting grazing, dispersing plants, altering ignition patterns and actively suppressing fires, thereby causing substantial ecosystem changes and loss of biodiversity. Some of these contemporary fire regimes cause substantial economic disruptions owing to the destruction of infrastructure, degradation of ecosystem services, loss of life, and smoke‐related health effects. These episodic disasters help frame negative public attitudes towards landscape fires, despite the need for burning to sustain some ecosystems. Greenhouse gas‐induced warming and changes in the hydrological cycle may increase the occurrence of large, severe fires, with potentially significant feedbacks to the Earth system. Improved understanding of human fire regimes demands: (1) better data on past and current human influences on fire regimes to enable global comparative analyses, (2) a greater understanding of different cultural traditions of landscape burning and their positive and negative social, economic and ecological effects, and (3) more realistic representations of anthropogenic fire in global vegetation and climate change models. We provide an historical framework to promote understanding of the development and diversification of fire regimes, covering the pre‐human period, human domestication of fire, and the subsequent transition from subsistence agriculture to industrial economies. All of these phases still occur on Earth, providing opportunities for comparative research.

Journal of Biogeography↗

USGS2011

Lake sturgeon response to a spawning reef constructed in the Detroit river

Prior to the First World War, the bi-national Detroit River provided vast areas of functional fish spawning and nursery habitat. However, ongoing conflicting human uses of these waters for activities such as waste disposal, water withdrawals, shoreline development, shipping, recreation, and fishing have altered many of the chemical, physical, and biological processes of the Detroit River. Of particular interest and concern to resource managers and stakeholders is the significant loss and impairment of fish spawning and nursery habitat that led to the decline in abundance of most fish species using this ecosystem. Lake sturgeon ( Acipenser fulvescens ) populations for example, were nearly extirpated by the middle of the 20th century, leaving only a small fraction of their former population. Fisheries managers recognized that the loss of suitable fish spawning habitat is a limiting factor in lake sturgeon population rehabilitation in the Detroit River. In efforts to remediate this beneficial water use impairment, a reef consisting of a mixture of natural rock and limestone was constructed at the upstream end of Fighting Island in 2008. This paper focuses on the response by lake sturgeon to the different replicates of suitable natural materials used to construct the fish spawning habitat at Fighting Island in the Detroit River. Pre-construction fisheries assessment during 2006–2008 showed that along with the presence of adult lake sturgeon, spawning conditions were favorable. However, no eggs were found in assessments conducted prior to reef construction. The 3300 m 2 Fighting Island reef was placed at the upstream end of the island in October of 2008. The construction design included 12 spawning beds of three replicates each consisting of either round rock, small or large (shot-rock) diameter limestone or a mixture thereof. An observed response by spawning lake sturgeon occurred the following year when spawning-ready adults (ripe), viable eggs, and larvae were collected during May and June 2009. Additional eggs and spawning-ready adults were found in 2010 (no larval sampling occurred in 2010) as well as collection of three age-0 juvenile lake sturgeon in bottom trawls fished downstream of the reef during July 2010. Spawning lake sturgeon showed no repeatable preference for any of the four particular substrate types but showed a high degree of preference for the island side of the channel, where faster water current velocities occurred. In 2009, overall lake sturgeon egg densities across all replicates averaged 102 m -2 and seven larvae were found in night drift-net samples. In 2010, average lake sturgeon egg density was 12 m -2 and three age-0 lake sturgeon averaging 120 mm TL were collected in bottom trawls in deepwater (∼8 m depth) downstream from the constructed reef. These results demonstrated successful reproduction by lake sturgeon on a man-made reef and suggested that additions and improvements to fish spawning habitat could enhance reproduction and early life history survival of lake sturgeon in the Detroit River.

Michigan;Ontario↗

USGS2012

Magnetic grain-size variations through an ash flow sheet: influence on magnetic properties and implications for cooling history

Rock magnetic studies of tuffs are essential to the interpretation of paleomagnetic data derived from such rocks, provide a basis for interpretation of aeromagnetic data over volcanic terranes, and yield insights into the depositional and cooling histories of ash flow sheets. A rhyolitic ash flow sheet, the Miocene-aged Tiva Canyon Member of the Paintbrush Tuff, contains both titanomagnetite phenocrysts, present in the magma prior to eruption, and cubic Fe-oxide microcrystals that grew after emplacement. Systematic variations in the quantity and magnetic grain size of the microcrystals produce large variations in magnetic properties through a section of the ash flow sheet penetrated in a borehole on the Nevada Test Site. Natural remanent magnetization varies from less than 1 × 10 −4 to more than 8 × 10 −4 A m 3 kg −1 , and in-phase magnetic susceptibility varies from less than 1 × 10 −6 to more than 10 × 10 −6 m 3 kg −1 . The microcrystals, which include both magnetite and maghemite, have Curie points and maximum unblocking temperatures between 580°C and 640°C. Rock magnetic data, including in-phase and quadrature magnetic susceptibilities as well as hysteresis parameters, demonstrate that these microcrystals are of superparamagnetic and single-domain sizes. Titanomagnetite phenocrysts are the dominant remanence carriers in the central 50 m of the section, whereas microcrystals are important contributors to remanent magnetization and magnetic susceptibility in two 15-m-thick zones at the top and bottom. Within these zones the size of microcrystals decreases both toward the quenched margins and toward the interior of the sheet. The decrease in microcrystal size toward the interior of the sheet is interpreted to indicate the presence of a cooling break; possibly represented by a concentration of pumice. Laboratory heating produces changes in magnetic properties which vary complexly from sample to sample. Such changes include (1) decrease in saturation magnetization, (2) both increase and decrease in in-phase and quadrature magnetic susceptibilities, and (3) shifts in coercivity spectra. The complex sample-to-sample variation in response to heating is attributed to differences in initial grain-size distributions.

Journal of Geophysical Research↗

USGS2021

Ecological disturbance through patch-burn grazing influences lesser prairie-chicken space use

Across portions of the western Great Plains in North America, natural fire has been removed from grassland ecosystems, decreasing vegetation heterogeneity and allowing woody encroachment. The loss of fire has implications for grassland species requiring diverse vegetation patches and structure or patches that have limited occurrence in the absence of fire. The lesser prairie-chicken ( Tympanuchus pallidicinctus ) is a declining species of prairie-grouse that requires heterogeneous grasslands throughout its life history and fire has been removed from much of its occupied range. Patch-burn grazing is a management strategy that re-establishes the fire-grazing interaction to a grassland system, increasing heterogeneity in vegetation structure and composition. We evaluated the effects of patch-burn grazing on lesser prairie-chicken space use, habitat features, and vegetation selection during a 4-year field study from 2014–2017. Female lesser prairie-chickens selected 1- and 2-year post-fire patches during the lekking season, ≥4-year post-fire patches during the nesting season, and year-of-fire and 1-year post-fire patches during post-nesting and nonbreeding seasons. Vegetation selection during the lekking season was not similar to available vegetation in selected patches, suggesting that lesser prairie-chickens cue in on other factors during the lekking season. During the nesting season, females selected nest sites with greater visual obstruction, which was available in ≥4-year post-fire patches; during the post-nesting season, females selected sites with 15–25% bare ground, which was available in the year-of-fire, 1-year post-fire, and 2-year post-fire patches; and during the nonbreeding season they selected sites with lower visual obstruction, available in the year-of-fire and 1-year post-fire patches. Because lesser prairie-chickens selected all available time-since-fire patches during their life history, patch-burn grazing may be a viable management tool to restore and maintain lesser prairie-chicken habitat on the landscape. © 2021 The Wildlife Society.

Kansas↗

USGS1978

Minerals produced during cooling and hydrothermal alteration of ash flow tuff from Yellowstone drill hole Y-5

A rhyolitic ash-flow tuff in a hydrothermally active area within the Yellowstone caldera was drilled in 1967, and cores were studied to determine the nature and distribution of primary and secondary mineral phases. The rocks have undergone a complex history of crystallization and hydrothermal alteration since their emplacement 600,000 years ago. During cooling from magmatic temperatures, the glassy groundmass underwent either devitrification to alkali feldspar + ??-cristobalite ?? tridymite or granophyric crystallization to alkali feldspar + quartz. Associated with the zones of granophyric crystallization are prismatic quartz crystals in cavities similar to those termed miarolitic in plutonic rocks. Vapor-phase alkali feldspar, tridymite, magnetite, and sporadic ??-cristobalite were deposited in cavities and in void spaces of pumice fragments. Subsequently, some of the vapor-phase alkali feldspar crystals were replaced by microcrystalline quartz, and the vapor-phase minerals were frosted by a coating of saccharoidal quartz. Hydrothermal minerals occur primarily as linings and fillings of cavities and fractures and as altered mafic phenocrysts. Chalcedony is the dominant mineral related to the present hydrothermal regime and occurs as microcrystalline material mixed with various amounts of hematite and goethite. The chalcedony displays intricate layering and was apparently deposited as opal from silica-rich water. Hematite and goethite also replace both mafic phenocrysts and vapor-phase magnetite. Other conspicuous hydrothermal minerals include montmorillonite, pyrite, mordenite, calcite, and fluorite. Clinoptilolite, erionite, illite, kaolinite, and manganese oxides are sporadic. The hydrothermal minerals show little correlation with temperature, but bladed calcite is restricted to a zone of boiling in the tuff and clearly was deposited when CO2 was lost during boiling. Fractures and breccias filled with chalcedony are common throughout Y-5 and may have been produced by rapid disruption of rock caused by sudden decrease of fluid pressure in fractures, most likely a result of fracturing during resurgent doming in this part of the Yellowstone caldera. The chalcedony probably was deposited as opal or ??-cristobalite from a pre-existing silica floc that moved rapidly into the fractures and breccias immediately after the sudden pressure drop. ?? 1978.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗

USGS2006

The changing shapes of active volcanoes: History, evolution, and future challenges for volcano geodesy

At the very heart of volcanology lies the search for the 'plumbing systems' that form the inner workings of Earth’s active volcanoes. By their very nature, however, the magmatic reservoirs and conduits that underlie these active volcanic systems are elusive; mostly they are observable only through circumstantial evidence, using indirect, and often ambiguous, surficial measurements. Of course, we can infer much about these systems from geologic investigation of materials brought to the surface by eruptions and of the exposed roots of ancient volcanoes. But how can we study the magmatic processes that are occurring beneath Earth’s active volcanoes? What are the geometry, scale, physical, and chemical characteristics of magma reservoirs? Can we infer the dynamics of magma transport? Can we use this information to better forecast the future behavior of volcanoes? These questions comprise some of the most fundamental, recurring themes of modern research in volcanology. The field of volcano geodesy is uniquely situated to provide critical observational constraints on these problems. For the past decade, armed with a new array of technological innovations, equipped with powerful computers, and prepared with new analytical tools, volcano geodesists have been poised to make significant advances in our fundamental understanding of the behavior of active volcanic systems. The purpose of this volume is to highlight some of these recent advances, particularly in the collection and interpretation of geodetic data from actively deforming volcanoes. The 18 papers that follow report on new geodetic data that offer valuable insights into eruptive activity and magma transport; they present new models and modeling strategies that have the potential to greatly increase understanding of magmatic, hydrothermal, and volcano-tectonic processes; and they describe innovative techniques for collecting geodetic measurements from remote, poorly accessible, or hazardous volcanoes. To provide a proper context for these studies, we offer a short review of the evolution of volcano geodesy, as well as a case study that highlights recent advances in the field by comparing the geodetic response to recent eruptive episodes at Mount St. Helens. Finally, we point out a few areas that continue to challenge the volcano geodesy community, some of which are addressed by the papers that follow and which undoubtedly will be the focus of future research for years to come.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗

USGS2022

Factors affecting spatiotemporal variation in survival of endangered winter-run Chinook Salmon outmigrating from the Sacramento River

Among four extant and declining Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) runs in California’s Central Valley, none have declined as precipitously as Sacramento River winter-run Chinook Salmon. In addition to habitat loss, migratory winter-run employ a life history strategy to reside and feed in stopover habitats on their way from freshwaters to the ocean. This life history strategy is widely considered to be a key factor in the continued decline of winter-run. Using acoustic telemetry, we examined conditions that influenced reach-specific movement and survival of outmigrating juveniles during a prolonged, multi-year drought from 2013-2016, followed by one of the wettest years on record in 2017. We modeled how time-varying individual riverine covariates and reach-specific habitat features influenced smolt survival. Model selection favored a model with mean annual flow, intra-annual deviations from the mean flow at the reach scale, reach-specific channel characteristics, and travel time. Mean annual flow had the strongest positive effect on survival. A negative interaction between mean annual flow and intra-annual reach flow indicated that within-year deviations at the reach scale from annual mean flow had larger effects on survival in low flow years. These factors resulted in higher survival in years with pulse flows or high flows. Changes in movement behavior in response to small scale changes in velocity were negatively associated with survival. Covariates of revetment and wooded bank habitat were positively associated with survival but the effect of these fixed habitat features changed depending on whether they were situated in the upper or lower part of the river. Fish exhibited density dependent stopover behavior, with slowed downstream migration in the upper river in the wet years and extending to the lower river in the most critically dry year. This paper contributes two key findings for natural resource managers interested in flow management and targeted habitat restoration. The first is new insight to how the magnitude of pulse flows in dry and wet years affect survival of winter-run. The second is that density dependence influences where stopover habitat is used. Despite this, we identified an area of the river where fish consistently exhibited stopover behavior in all years.

California↗

USGS1994

Evidence from xenoliths for a dynamic lower crust, eastern Mojave Desert, California

Garnet-rich xenoliths in a Tertiary dike in the eastern Mojave Desert, California, preserve information about the nature and history of the lower crust. These xenoliths record pressures of ∼ 10–12 kbar and temperatures of ∼ 750–800°C. Approximately 25% have mafic compositions and bear hornblende + plagioclase + clinopyroxene + quartz in addition to garnet. The remainder, all of which contain quartz, include quartzose, quartzofeldspathic, and aluminous (kyanite±sillimanite-bearing) varieties. Most xenoliths have identifiable protoliths—mafic from intermediate or mafic igneous rocks, quartzose from quartz-rich sedimentary rocks, aluminous from Al-rich graywackes or pelites, and quartzofeldspathic from feldspathic sediments and/or intermediate to felsic igneous rocks. However, many have unusual chemical compositions characterized by high FeO(t), FeO(t)/MgO, Al 2 O 3 , and Al 2 O 3 /CaO, which correspond to high garnet abundance. The mineralogy and major-and trace-element compositions are consistent with the interpretation that the xenoliths are the garnet-rich residues of high-pressure crustal melting, from which granitic melt was extracted. High 87 Sr/ 86 Sr and low 143 Nd/ 144 Nd, together with highly discordant zircons from a single sample with Pb/Pb ages of ∼ 1.7 Ga, demonstrate that the crustal material represented by the xenoliths is at least as old as Early Proterozoic. This supracrustal-bearing lithologic assemblage may have been emplaced in the lower crust during either Proterozoic or Mesozoic orogenesis, but Sr and Nd model ages> 4 Ga require late Phanerozoic modification of parent/daughter ratios, presumably during the anatectic event. Pressures of equilibration indicate that peak metamorphism and melting occurred before the Mojave crust had thinned to its current thickness of <30 km. The compositions of the xenoliths suggest that the lower crust here is grossly similar to estimated world-wide lower-crustal compositions in terms of silica and mafic content; however, it is considerably more peraluminous, has a lower mg -number, and is distinctive in some trace element concentrations, reflecting its strong metasedimentary and restitic heritage.

Journal of Petrology↗

USGS2014

Evaluating the predictive performance of empirical estimators of natural mortality rate using information on over 200 fish species

Many methods have been developed in the last 70 years to predict the natural mortality rate, M , of a stock based on empirical evidence from comparative life history studies. These indirect or empirical methods are used in most stock assessments to (i) obtain estimates of M in the absence of direct information, (ii) check on the reasonableness of a direct estimate of M , (iii) examine the range of plausible M estimates for the stock under consideration, and (iv) define prior distributions for Bayesian analyses. The two most cited empirical methods have appeared in the literature over 2500 times to date. Despite the importance of these methods, there is no consensus in the literature on how well these methods work in terms of prediction error or how their performance may be ranked. We evaluate estimators based on various combinations of maximum age ( t max ), growth parameters, and water temperature by seeing how well they reproduce >200 independent, direct estimates of M . We use tenfold cross-validation to estimate the prediction error of the estimators and to rank their performance. With updated and carefully reviewed data, we conclude that a t max -based estimator performs the best among all estimators evaluated. The t max -based estimators in turn perform better than the Alverson–Carney method based on t max and the von Bertalanffy K coefficient, Pauly’s method based on growth parameters and water temperature and methods based just on K . It is possible to combine two independent methods by computing a weighted mean but the improvement over the t max -based methods is slight. Based on cross-validation prediction error, model residual patterns, model parsimony, and biological considerations, we recommend the use of a t max -based estimator ( M = 4.899 t max − 0.916 "> M = 4.899 t − 0.916 max M=4.899tmax−0.916 , prediction error = 0.32) when possible and a growth-based method ( M = 4.118 K 0.73 L ∞ − 0.33 "> M = 4.118 K 0.73 L − 0.33 ∞ M=4.118K0.73L∞−0.33 , prediction error = 0.6, length in cm) otherwise.

ICES Journal of Marine Science↗

USGS2018

Evaluating response distances to develop buffer zones for staging terns

Buffer zones, calculated by flight‐initiation distance (FID), are often used to reduce anthropogenic disturbances to wildlife, but FID can vary significantly across life‐history stages. We examined the behavioral effect of potential natural (gulls and shorebirds) and anthropogenic (pedestrians) disturbance sources to staging roseate ( Sterna dougallii ) and common tern ( S. hirundo ) flocks from July to September in 2014 and 2015 at Cape Cod, Massachusetts, USA. We estimated the proportion of the flock exhibiting different responses to potential disturbance sources as a function of distance, flock size, percent roseate terns, and local disturbance rates, using Bayesian zero‐and‐one inflated beta regression. The proportion of tern flocks responding to the presence of shorebirds by flying was low (0.01 ± 0.001 [SE]) and did not vary by distance or other covariates, whereas the proportion flying in response to gulls increased as distance decreased, with smaller flocks, and with flocks with a larger proportion of roseate terns being more sensitive to gull presence. Prolonged flight response rapidly increased in probability from 0.0 to as much as 1.0 as distance from pedestrians to the flock decreased from 100 m and was much more likely with smaller flocks. Pedestrian activity levels also had an effect on flock responses; those engaged in active behaviors such as jogging were more likely to cause flushing than those engaged in passive behaviors. Terns seemed to view pedestrians as more of a threat than shorebirds and gulls, even though gulls are frequent kleptoparasites of terns. Pedestrians >120 m from a tern flock generally elicited the same probability of flight response as shorebirds and gulls. We recommend managers maintain anthropogenic disturbance levels at or below the intensity of those from natural sources at sites where recreation and wildlife values are both important. Because staging tern flocks may use a variety of areas within a site, we recommend instituting a 100‐m buffer around areas potentially used by staging flocks at Cape Cod, where we studied every location roseate terns are known to use in large numbers. For other sites used by mixed‐species tern flocks, we recommend the use of our field and analytical methods to develop appropriate buffer distances that will keep pedestrians far enough away to reduce the likelihood of flight and other non‐locomotive anti‐predator behaviors. These buffer zones will also benefit other species sensitive to human activity.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS1995

Volcanic and structural evolution of Taupo Volcanic Zone, New Zealand: A review

The Taupo Volcanic Zone (TVZ) in the central North Island is the main focus of young volcanism in New Zealand. Andesitic activity started at c. 2 Ma, joined by voluminous rhyolitic (plus minor basaltic and dacitic) activity from c. 1.6 Ma. The TVZ is c. 300 km long (200 km on land) and up to 60 km wide, as defined by vent positions and caldera structural boundaries. The total volume of TVZ volcanic deposits is uncertain because a sub-volcanic basement has not been identified, but present data suggest bulk volumes of 15–20,000 km 3 , and that faulted metasediments form most of the immediate subvolcanic basement. Rhyolite (≥15,000 km 3 bulk volume, typically 70–77% SiO 2 ) is the dominant magma erupted in the TVZ (mostly as calderaforming ignimbrite eruptions), andesite is an order of magnitude less abundant, and basalt and dacite are minor in volume (< 100 km 3 each). The history of the TVZ is here divided into ‘old TVZ’ from 2.0 Ma to 0.34 Ma, and ‘young TVZ’ from 0.34 Ma onwards, separated by the Whakamaru eruptions, which obscured much of the evidence for older activity within the zone. The TVZ shows a pronounced segmentation into northeastern and southwestern andesite-dominated extremities with composite cones and no calderas, and a central 125-km-long rhyolite-dominated segment. Eight rhyolitic caldera centres have so far been identified in the central segment, of which two (Mangakino and Kapenga) are composite features, and more centres will probably be delineated as further data accumulate. These centres account for 34 inferred caldera-forming ignimbrite eruptions, in the c. 1.6-Ma lifetime of the central TVZ. The modern central TVZ is the most frequently active and productive silicic volcanic system on Earth, erupting rhyolite at c. 0.28 m 3 s −1 , and available information suggests this has been so for at least the past 0.34 Ma. The rhyolites show no major compositional changes with time, though the extent of magma chamber zonation may have changed with the incoming of rifting and crustal extension in the past c. 0.9 Ma. Within the central TVZ, non-rhyolitic compositions have been erupted apparently irregularly in time and space; in particular there is no evidence for a geographic separation of basalts from andesites. Between 0.9 and 0.34 Ma, a major episode of uplift affected areas around the TVZ, while at the same time the main focus of activity may have migrated eastwards within the TVZ accompanying rifting along the axis of the zone. The modern TVZ is rifting at rates between 7 and 18 mm a −1 and restoration of the thin (15km) ‘crust’ ( V p ≤ 6.1 km s −1 ) beneath the central TVZ to its pre-rifting thickness (25 km) implies that rifting at such rates may have begun only at c. 0.9 Ma. The TVZ is a rifted arc, but its longitudinally segmented nature, high thermal flux and voluminous rhyolitic volcanism make it unique on Earth.

Taupo Volcanic Field↗

USGS2015

Hydro-bio-geomechanical properties of hydrate-bearing sediments from Nankai Trough

Natural hydrate-bearing sediments from the Nankai Trough, offshore Japan, were studied using the Pressure Core Characterization Tools (PCCTs) to obtain geomechanical, hydrological, electrical, and biological properties under in situ pressure, temperature, and restored effective stress conditions. Measurement results, combined with index-property data and analytical physics-based models, provide unique insight into hydrate-bearing sediments in situ. Tested cores contain some silty-sands, but are predominantly sandy- and clayey-silts. Hydrate saturations S h range from 0.15 to 0.74, with significant concentrations in the silty-sands. Wave velocity and flexible-wall permeameter measurements on never-depressurized pressure-core sediments suggest hydrates in the coarser-grained zones, the silty-sands where S h exceeds 0.4, contribute to soil-skeletal stability and are load-bearing. In the sandy- and clayey-silts, where S h < 0.4, the state of effective stress and stress history are significant factors determining sediment stiffness. Controlled depressurization tests show that hydrate dissociation occurs too quickly to maintain thermodynamic equilibrium, and pressure–temperature conditions track the hydrate stability boundary in pure-water, rather than that in seawater, in spite of both the in situ pore water and the water used to maintain specimen pore pressure prior to dissociation being saline. Hydrate dissociation accompanied with fines migration caused up to 2.4% vertical strain contraction. The first-ever direct shear measurements on never-depressurized pressure-core specimens show hydrate-bearing sediments have higher sediment strength and peak friction angle than post-dissociation sediments, but the residual friction angle remains the same in both cases. Permeability measurements made before and after hydrate dissociation demonstrate that water permeability increases after dissociation, but the gain is limited by the transition from hydrate saturation before dissociation to gas saturation after dissociation. In a proof-of-concept study, sediment microbial communities were successfully extracted and stored under high-pressure, anoxic conditions. Depressurized samples of these extractions were incubated in air, where microbes exhibited temperature-dependent growth rates.

Journal of Marine and Petroleum Geology↗

USGS1990

Geochemistry and intrusive history of the Ashland pluton, Klamath Mountains, California and Oregon

The Ashland pluton is a calc-alkaline plutonic complex that intruded the western Paleozoic and Triassic belt of the Klamath Mountains in late Middle Jurassic time. The pluton comprises a series of compositionally distinct magma pulses. The oldest rocks are hornblende gabbro and two-pyroxene quartz gabbro with initial 87 Sr/ 86 Sr = 0˙7044, δ 18 O = 8˙7%, and REE patterns with chondrite normalized La/Lu = 7. These units were followed by a suite of tonalitic rocks (La N /Lu N = 7) and then by a suite of K 2 O- and P 2 O 5 rocks of quartz monzodioritic affinity (La N /Lu N = 13–21; La N /Sm N = 2˙4–3˙) The quartz monzodioritic rocks were then intruded by biotite granodiorite and granite with lower REE abundances but more fractionated LREE(La N /Lu N = 13–19; La N /Sm N = 4˙3–6 and they, in turn, were host to dikes and bosses of hornblende diorite. The latest intrusive activity consisted of aplitic and granitic dikes. Combined phase equilibria and mineral composition data, indicate emplacement conditions of approximately P total = 2˙3kb, P H2O between 1˙5 and 2˙2 kb, and f O2 between the nickel-nickel oxide and hematite-magnetite buffers. Successive pulses of magma display increasing SiO 2 together with increasing δ 18 O and decreasing initial 87 Sr/ 86 Sr. The isotopic data are consistent with either (1) combined fractional crystallization of andesitic magma and concurrent assimilation of crustal material characterized by low Sr 1 and high (δ 18 O or, more probably, (2) a series of partial melting events in which sources were successively less radiogenic but richer in 18 O Each intrusive stage displays evidence for some degree of crystal accumulation and/or fractional crystallization but neither process adequately accounts for their compositional differences. Consequently, each stage appears to represent a distinct partial melting or assimilation event. The P 2 O 5 -rich nature of the quartz monzodiorite suite suggests accumulation of apatite. However, the suite contains abundant mafic microgranitoid enclaves and most apatite in the suite is acicular. These observations suggest that magma mixing affected the compositional variation of the quartz monzodiorite suite. Mass balance calculations are consistent with a simple mixing process in which P 2 O 5 -rich alkalic basalt magma (represented by the mafic microgranitoid enclaves) was combined with a crystal-poor felsic magma (represented by the tonalite suite), yielding a quartz monzodioritic magma that then underwent differentiation by crystal fractionation and accumulation.

California, Oregon↗