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1,443 records · Page 9Linked to original sources
USGS2024

Numerical model of the groundwater-flow system near the southeastern part of Puget Sound, Washington

Groundwater flow in the active model area (AMA) was simulated using a groundwater-flow model. A steady-state model version of the model simulates equilibrium conditions, and a transient model version simulates monthly variability. The model corresponds to the physical and temporal dimensions of the conceptual model and groundwater budget. The steady-state model version represents average conditions for an 11-year period (January 1, 2005–December 31, 2015), and the transient model represents monthly hydrologic variability within that period. The 13-layer model was constructed using MODFLOW-NWT with a uniformly spaced grid consisting of 416 rows, 433 columns, and cells with a horizontal dimension of 500 feet (ft) on a side. The model was calibrated to measured values of water levels in wells and lakes and estimated base flow for selected streamflow measurement stations, commonly referred to as streamgages. Model calibration was accomplished using a combination of manual and automatic methods, including the Model-Independent Parameter Estimation (PEST) program that adjusted model input parameters with the aim of minimizing the difference between estimated and model-simulated values of hydraulic head and base flow. Model boundary conditions consist of all simulated groundwater inflow to and outflow from the AMA. For example, a stream reach that simulates a gain from or loss to groundwater is a boundary condition that allows water to exit or enter, respectively, the groundwater system. Other boundary conditions include springs, seeps, precipitation recharge, groundwater exchange with lakes and Puget Sound, and groundwater pumping. A comparison of the estimated groundwater budget to that simulated by the steady-state model version indicates that the relative percentages of total inflow or total outflow for six major categories of boundary conditions are similar for the two budgets. The model was used to simulate three suites of scenarios of potential drought and water-use changes. Scenario 1 suite consisted of the steady-state model version that was run with 0, 15, 20, and 25 percent reduction of precipitation recharge to assess the corresponding reductions in base flow with decreasing recharge. The last simulation for the scenario 1 suite consisted of the transient model version simulating 3 years of consecutive seasonal drought, defined by the months of May through September, to assess the corresponding base-flow reductions. Scenario 2 suite consisted of the steady-state model version with all simulated groundwater use removed, compared with a simulation that includes current groundwater use to evaluate changes to potentiometric surfaces and base flows. Scenario 3 suite consisted of a transient model version of the model that simulated pumping increases for four different categories of water-supply wells (compared to no pumping increases) to evaluate resulting reductions in base flow. Although, these scenarios provide examples of model applications and useful insights, many other scenarios could be simulated. A description of how to download the model is described in the body of this report. Uncertainty is associated with most model inputs. Groundwater levels, lake levels, and land-surface altitudes are relatively certain; other model inputs are far less certain, including precipitation recharge, base flow, hydraulic properties, water use, and the three-dimensional structure of subsurface hydrogeologic units. Models are useful not because of high levels of accuracy of all model inputs, but because they combine the best information and estimates available, thereby providing the best predictions available related to physical processes. The model described in this report simulates groundwater flow on a regional scale, which has inherent limitations for simulating hydrologic scenarios at local scales. Model structures and inputs were generalized to be consistent with this regional scale. For example, the actual groundwater system has much greater heterogeneity of hydraulic conductivity than is possible within the model’s degrees of freedom. Variations in hydraulic gradients over distances less than 500 ft cannot be simulated. The distances between model features, such as a pumping well and a stream, must be placed at 500-ft intervals and are co-located if both features are within the same model cell.

Washington↗
USGS2026

Detecting snow avalanche activity using infrasound: Hooker Valley, New Zealand

Snow avalanches pose considerable hazards to people and infrastructure in alpine environments. Traditional avalanche monitoring relies on meteorological data and visual observations, which can be limited in scope and timeliness. Infrasound offers a promising complementary monitoring tool by detecting the low-frequency sound waves generated by avalanches. Here, we present infrasound and camera observations during a 50-day field campaign in the Hooker Valley of Aoraki/Mount Cook National Park, New Zealand. Our study detected seven avalanches with the cameras, whereas the infrasound system identified only one of these events, which was the largest and occurred under conditions that likely favoured infrasound propagation. The infrasound system recorded numerous other events not captured by the cameras, indicating the benefit of further investigation to determine their sources. These findings highlight the potential of infrasound technology for detecting avalanches and providing broad spatial coverage, capturing events in areas not monitored by cameras, while also showcasing limitations in infrasound capabilities. The limited detection of smaller avalanches underscores the opportunity for further research to enhance detection capabilities and understand environmental influences such as snow cover and wind noise. Overall, this study emphasises the utility of multidisciplinary monitoring techniques to improve avalanche detection in alpine environments.

Hooker Valley↗
USGS2026

Identifying overlap between native fish movements and a possible seasonal Grass Carp deterrent in the Sandusky River, Ohio, USA

Riverine fishes are vulnerable to habitat fragmentation caused by interrupted access to vital habitats. Fragmentation using artificial structures can be used to limit the spread of invasive fishes by inhibiting movement between critical habitats. Thus, tradeoffs exist between maintaining connectivity for native species and restricting movement of invasive fishes. A nonphysical deterrent has been proposed to prevent invasive Grass Carp ( Ctenopharyngodon idella ) from reaching spawning habitats in the Sandusky River, a tributary to Lake Erie, during late spring–summer. However, this timing overlaps with spawning periods of a suite of native fishes. We used acoustic telemetry and ichthyoplankton surveys to examine movement and spawning activity of multiple native species and to assess potential impacts of deterrent operation on reproduction. All species used the proposed deterrent location during the Grass Carp spawning period, and their movements corresponded with larval fish collections, indicating upstream spawning. These findings suggest the deterrent could unintentionally restrict native species’ access to essential habitats. Balancing habitat connectivity and invasive species control will likely depend on species-specific responses and careful timing of deterrent operation.

Ohio↗
USGS2026

Computational electromagnetic geophysics for groundwater system studies: A review on established practices and recent advances

Identifying effective solutions for locating groundwater resources and ensuring the quality of drinking water is increasingly urgent, given the challenges posed by climate change and population growth. This review investigates electromagnetic geophysical imaging techniques, in both time- and frequency-domain, that can provide valuable insights for groundwater assessment. We explore computational electromagnetic methods used to evaluate electromagnetic data and several recent hydrogeophysical case studies. As open-source frameworks for modeling electromagnetic geophysical problems become available, a broader range of researchers can interpret their data with computationally advanced software. We provide an overview of documented open-source codes for evaluating electromagnetic data and analyze various hydrological targets in relation to their electromagnetic surveying technique and the computational method applied. Furthermore, we evaluate the potential of advanced computational techniques, including three-dimensional modeling, non-deterministic inversion and machine learning, to couple geophysical with numerical groundwater modeling and apply it in groundwater system studies. Despite obstacles such as complexity and resource demands, our findings indicate that the quantification and integration of predictive uncertainties from both electromagnetic and hydrological data and simulations would significantly improve the reliability of hydrogeophysical models. This can lead to a deeper understanding of groundwater systems and improved management practices.

Journal of Hydrology↗
USGS2026

Subsurface water ice mapping on Mars: A probabilistic approach

Subsurface water ice deposits on Mars are an important resource for potential future human exploration. They are also an indicator of the planet’s past climate. However, the distribution of subsurface water ice in Mars’s midlatitudes is uncertain because spacecraft imagery cannot directly observe subsurface ice in most cases. Various spacecraft remote sensing instruments are sensitive to subsurface water ice, including thermal imaging spectrometers, radar sounders, and neutron spectrometers. Geomorphic analyses of images can also implicate subsurface ice. Building upon the data products from the Mars Subsurface Water Ice Mapping project, we provide a probabilistic framework to jointly interpret existing data and estimate the likelihood of subsurface water ice in the Martian midlatitudes between 60 ∘ S and 60 ∘ N with uncertainty. Broadly, we find that near-surface ice is likely present poleward of ∼45 ∘ in both the northern and southern hemispheres. However, closer to the equator, existing remote sensing data cannot uniquely constrain the presence of subsurface water ice. Our probabilistic results provide a framework for quantifying the abundance of ice on Mars, and our uncertainty estimates allow future analysis and exploration to target regions of high uncertainty.

Planetary Science Journal↗
USGS2024

Earthquake cycle mechanics during caldera collapse: Simulating the 2018 Kīlauea eruption

In multiple observed caldera-forming eruptions, the rock overlying a draining magma reservoir dropped downward along ring faults in sequences of discrete collapse earthquakes. These sequences are analogous to tectonic earthquake cycles and provide opportunities to examine fault mechanics and collapse eruption dynamics over multiple events. Collapse earthquake cycles have been studied with zero-dimensional slider-block models, but these do not account for the complicated interplay between fluid and elastic dynamics or for factors such as the heterogeneous fault properties and non-vertical ring fault geometries often inferred at volcanoes. We present two-dimensional axisymmetric mafic piston-like collapse earthquake cycle models that include rate-and-state friction, fully-dynamic elasticity, and compressible viscous fluid magma flow. We demonstrate that collapse earthquake intervals and magnitudes are highly sensitive to inertial effects, evolving stress fields, fault geometry, and depth-varying fault friction. Given the consistent earthquake cycles observed in most eruptions, this suggests that ring faults can quickly stabilize and often become nearly vertical at depth. We use the well-monitored 2018 collapse sequence at Kı̄lauea as a case study. Our model can produce many features of Kı̄lauea seismic and geodetic observations, except for a significant amount of interseismic slip, which cannot be readily explained with simple rate-and-state friction parameterizations.

Hawaii↗
USGS2024

Taking heat (downstream): Simulating groundwater and thermal equilibrium controls on annual paired air–water temperature signal transport in headwater streams

Headwater stream temperature often exhibits spatial variation at the kilometer-scale, but the relative importance of the underlying hydrogeological processes and riverine perturbations remains poorly understood. In this study, we investigated the relative importance of groundwater (GW) and other processes on downstream annual stream temperature signal characteristics using deterministic heat budget model (HFLUX) scenarios within an idealized stream reach representative of mountainous forested conditions. We summarized annual stream thermal regimes from the relationship of paired sinusoidal air and water temperature signals (amplitude ratio, phase lag, and mean ratio). Results showed that downstream changes in annual temperature depended on the thermal gradient between water and the hypothetical equilibrium temperature (where all heat fluxes sum to zero). GW inflow, riparian shading, and the boundary input signal were the most significant factors affecting downstream annual water temperature signals, while flow volume and channel dimensions impacted how quickly annual temperature signals changed. Effects of GW were dominated by advective rather than conductive heat exchange processes, but conduction played a larger role when GW input was more spatially diffuse. Our results indicated several mechanisms by which local processes may affect stream thermal resilience to disturbances and can help guide management of wildfire and climate change.

Journal of Hydrology↗
USGS2025

3D viscoelastic models of slip-deficit rate along the Cascadia subduction zone

Interseismic deformation in the Pacific Northwest is constrained by the horizontal crustal velocity field derived from the Global Positioning System (GPS) in addition to vertical rates derived from GPS, leveling, and tide gauge measurements. Such measurements were folded in to deformation models of fault slip rates as part of the 2023 National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) update. Here I build upon one of the contributing models, the viscoelastic earthquake-cycle model of Pollitz [2022]. This model permits inclusion of effects of time-dependent viscoelastic relaxation within earthquake cycles (i.e., ‘ghost transients’) and laterally variable elastic and/or ductile material properties. I lever-age these capabilities to incorporate the Cascadia megathrust into Western U.S.-wide deformation models in which crustal fault slip rates are estimated simultaneously with slip deficit rates along the interplate boundary between the descending Juan de Fuca plate and North American plate. This effort includes construction of a margin-wide model of viscoelastic structure founded on the Slab 2.0 model and probes different models of the ductile properties of the surrounding oceanic asthenosphere, continental lower crust, and mantle asthenosphere. This results in new estimates of the distribution of slip deficit rate along the ∼ 1000 km long margin, highlights the importance of correcting for glacial-isostatic adjustment effects, and permits assessment of sensitivity of results to assumed ductile properties.

California, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2000

Storm impact scale for barrier islands

A new scale is proposed that categorizes impacts to natural barrier islands resulting from tropical and extra-tropical storms. The proposed scale is fundamentally different than existing storm-related scales in that the coupling between forcing processes and the geometry of the coast is explicitly included. Four regimes, representing different levels of impact, are defined. Within each regime, patterns and relative magnitudes of net erosion and accretion are argued to be unique. The borders between regimes represent thresholds defining where processes and magnitudes of impacts change dramatically. Impact level 1 is the 'swash' regime describing a storm where runup is confined to the foreshore. The foreshore typically erodes during the storm and recovers following the storm; hence, there is no net change. Impact level 2 is the 'collision' regime describing a storm where the wave runup exceeds the threshold of the base of the foredune ridge. Swash impacts the dune forcing net erosion. Impact level 3 is the 'overwash' regime describing a storm where wave runup overtops the berm or, if present, the foredune ridge. The associated net landward sand transport contributes to net migration of the barrier landward. Impact level 4 is the 'inundation' regime describing a storm where the storm surge is sufficient to completely and continuously submerge the barrier island. Sand undergoes net landward transport over the barrier island; limited evidence suggests the quantities and distance of transport are much greater than what occurs during the 'overwash' regime.

Journal of Coastal Research↗
USGS2026

A process-based model for forecasting wave runup along the coast of Georgia

Wave runup is an important nearshore process that impacts total water level, sediment transport, and coastal design. Current methods for forecasting wave runup implement an empirical model that considers offshore wave height, wave period, and generalized beach slope. In this study, the authors generated wave runup forecasts from offshore wave conditions and a system of polynomial equations derived from numerical simulations at three different still water datums for each beach profile. They developed a process-based methodology that incorporated site-specific cross-shore topobathy into the phase-resolving numerical model. A comparison between the system of equations, deterministic hydrodynamic simulations, and observed high-water marks was made using Hurricanes Matthew (2016) and Irma (2017) for 12 cases, and it showed that the polynomials were capable of being consistent with the results from full simulation runs, while not requiring hours of runtime when a forecast was needed—the differences between the polynomial and the observed high water marks ranged from 3 to 32 cm for the Irma hindcast and 9–70 cm for Matthew. Then, using forcings from Hurricanes Ian and Nicole (2022), the model predicted the occurrence of dune collision, overwash, and inundation for the coast of Georgia and suggested that wave runup was impacted by the still water level and local topobathy.

Georgia↗
USGS2025

Integrating marine historical ecology into management of Alaska’s Pacific cod fishery for climate readiness

The Pacific cod ( Gadus macrocephalus ) fishery was closed in 2020 after a rapid decline in biomass caused by the marine heat waves of 2014–2019. Pacific cod are exceptionally thermally sensitive and management of this fishery is now challenged by increasingly unpredictable climate conditions. Fisheries monitoring is critical for climate readiness, but short-term monitoring data may be inadequate for recognizing and anticipating change under rapid climate changes. We propose an interdisciplinary, marine historical ecology framework that looks to long-term records (local and traditional knowledge, history, archaeology, and paleoclimatology) to capture a long range of ecological variability and provide historical context for management. In order to connect to contemporary fisheries management, this framework must be built on a common vocabulary and an understanding of the key metrics used in fisheries stock assessments. Here, we propose metrics derived from Pacific cod stock assessment and synthesize information relevant to understanding the effects of past warming periods on cod populations across the Gulf of Alaska and Bering Sea. This case study provides a framework for thinking about how to use these historical records in the context of fisheries management under rapidly changing climate conditions.

Alaska↗
USGS2025

Borehole geophysical time-series logging to monitor passive ISCO treatment of residual chlorinated-ethenes in a confining bed, NAS Pensacola, Florida

In-situ chemical oxidation (ISCO) is a common method to remediate chlorinated ethene contaminants in groundwater. Monitoring the effectiveness of ISCO can be hindered because of insufficient observations to assess oxidant delivery. Advantageously, potassium permanganate, one type of oxidant, provides the opportunity to use its strong electrical signal as a surrogate to track oxidant delivery using time-series borehole geophysical methods, like electromagnetic (EM) induction logging. Here we report a passive ISCO (P-ISCO) experiment, using potassium permanganate cylinders emplaced in boreholes, at a chlorinated ethene contamination site, Naval Air Station Pensacola, Florida. The contaminants are found primarily at the base of a shallow sandy aquifer in contact with an underlying silty-clay confining bed. We used results of the time-series borehole logging collected between 2017 and 2022 in 4 monitoring wells to track oxidant delivery. The EM-induction logs from the monitoring wells showed an increase in EM response primarily along the contact, likely from pooling of the oxidant, during P-ISCO treatment in 2021. Interestingly, concurrent natural gamma-ray (NGR) logging showed a decrease in NGR response at 3 of the 4 wells possibly from the formation of manganese precipitates coating sediments. The coupling of time-series logging and well-chemistry data allowed for an improved assessment of passive ISCO treatment effectiveness.

Florida↗
USGS2026

Long-term monotonic trends in water budget components in the contiguous United States: Insights from two hydrologic models

Characterizing changes to water availability for domestic, industrial, agricultural, and other uses is essential to support water management. To better quantify these changes, the U.S. Geological Survey and National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research produced two hydrologic models simulating water budget components from 1980 to 2021 over the contiguous United States (CONUS). Both hydrologic models were driven by a common atmospheric forcing dataset and aggregated to common spatial and temporal scales, which enables a novel evaluation of congruency between the models. We present annual and seasonal trends in six water budget components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, streamflow, groundwater recharge, soil saturation, and snow water equivalent) based on the Mann–Kendall test for monotonic trend and Theil-Sen slope estimate for the water year 1983–2021 period for ~86,000 catchments in CONUS. Additional components and metrics from our analysis pipeline are available in an associated published dataset, which contains more than 46 million trend results. The water budget trends showed broad agreement with prior observational and modeling studies that indicate increasing trends in the northeast and decreasing trends in southwestern CONUS. We found the seasonal variability in water budget trends was greatest in the southern, central, and northwest CONUS. These findings support integrated trend assessments when coupled with trends in water quality and use.

Contiguous United States↗
USGS2025

Controls on water quality below a reclaimed surface coal mine, southeastern Montana

Coal mining and reclamation can have a profound influence on hydrogeologic systems, with clear consequences for groundwater quality, yet their long-term influence on downgradient water quality over time following reclamation is less well documented. Geochemical trends were evaluated in water quality downgradient of a fully reclaimed landscape at the former Big Sky Mine in the Rosebud Creek watershed (southeastern Montana, USA), over a 3-year period (2020–2022), including bond release in 2022. Within 6 km downgradient from the reclaimed area, sulfate concentrations decreased from approximately 3500 to 1800 mg l −1 within the Miller Coulee alluvial aquifer. Major ions, δ 34 S SO4 values, and residence time tracers suggest that the observed decreases in sulfate concentration result from a combination of dilution by mixed-age inflows and incomplete transit of the high salinity plume from the mine boundary. Both bedrock and alluvial aquifers of the Rosebud Creek corridor contained contributions of millennia-old regional groundwater, which may serve to mitigate mine-derived high salinity waters. Rosebud Creek, which traverses the outflow zone of Miller Coulee in the study area, exhibited high sulfate concentrations during low flows and consistent downgradient increases in sulfate concentration. The possibility of plume dynamics in Miller Coulee suggests that the greatest water quality impacts may not yet have reached Rosebud Creek.

Montana↗
USGS2025

Waning greenhouse gas emissions from U.S. Federal lease coal production by the mid-21st century

This study presents estimates of future years (2024–2051) United States Federal lease coal production and the resulting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the combustion, transport, and mining of that fuel. Results from the coal production estimate indicate a decline in production from Federal leases; with known production of 240 million short tons (mtn) in 2023 and a projected decline to 34.0 mtn by 2051, which represents a reduction to 14.2% of the 2023 value. In parallel with this projection, total GHG emissions are estimated to decrease from 402.2 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MMT CO 2 eq.) in 2024 to 55.0 MMT CO 2 eq. in 2051, a decline to 13.7% of 2024 emissions estimates. The reductions in coal production and emissions are mainly the result of planned coal combustion power plant closures, with major projected closures in 2037 and 2048. However, GHG emissions estimates for future years can be uncertain as they rely heavily on coal production estimates from operators' public business plans and other publicly available resources. Forward looking plans of this type are subject to significant changes if economic and political factors deviate from current information. Results suggest that average GHG emissions over the time series breakout to 95% end point combustion, 3.7% transportation combustion emissions, and 1.3% fugitive emissions, although there is uncertainty associated with these figures. Uncertainty stemming from production projections, sector distributions, and emissions factors on the future emissions estimates increases with time, ranging from −28% to +48% within the 2024–2051 timeframe.

Alabama, Colorado, Montana, North Dakota, Utah, Wy↗
USGS2024

Exploring the dynamic interactions between the Southern San Andreas Fault and a normal fault under the Salton Sea

We investigate the dynamic interactions between the Southern San Andreas Fault (SSAF) and a proximal normal fault (NF) beneath the Salton Sea in southern California. The NF, positioned near the SSAF terminus at Bombay Beach, exhibits 11–15 displacement events across 14 stratigraphic sequences, with a range of 0.2–1.4 m of vertical offset since ∼2–3 ka. Notably, four of these events may align temporally with SSAF earthquakes, raising questions about the possible interplay between the two faults. Utilizing dynamic rupture models, we analyze the coseismic interactions between the SSAF and NF, addressing under what conditions the SSAF induces slip on the NF. Our findings reveal that a suite of SSAF ruptures, particularly those propagating from north to south, can trigger slip on the normal fault and replicate observed vertical offsets. If the SSAF extends beneath the Salton Sea, earthquakes originating south of the NF intersection are less likely to trigger normal fault slip, although we cannot exclude this possibility. Some SSAF ruptures do not trigger discernible slip on the NF, rendering such events undetectable in the stratigraphic record. Our research contributes toward discussions regarding the seismic hazard in southern California, shedding light on the interplay between the SSAF and NF.

California↗
USGS2026

Evaluation of submersible pressure transducers for streamflow monitoring in small streams

Compact streamgages requiring minimal infrastructure and equipped with submersible pressure transducers (PTs) are increasingly used to monitor small streams, yet disparate implementations obscure their accuracy under real-world conditions. This study isolated instrumentation-derived uncertainty in stage monitoring by co-locating various combinations of commercial vented and unvented PTs with seven U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) reference streamgages on small streams. Multi-year PT stage records from compact streamgages, collected and corrected following USGS protocols, were compared to concurrent reference observations. Vented PTs demonstrated an average measurement uncertainty of ±0.005 m and mean absolute percent error (MAPE) of ±0.2%. Unvented PTs exhibited higher uncertainty, averaging ±0.009 m and ±0.4% MAPE. Although both sensor types had stage errors up to ±0.3 m, 95% of vented PT and unvented PT observations were within 0.01 and 0.02 m of reference stage, respectively. Analysis of additional unvented PTs revealed stage errors of up to ±1.2% when using barometric sensors within 15 km of the in-water sensor. Propagation of stage error to discharge using reference rating models resulted in cumulative discharge MAPEs of ±4.5% for vented and ±5.5% for unvented PTs. These findings highlight PTs as practical alternatives to reference instrumentation when deployed with standardized procedures, potentially expanding access to reliable streamflow data.

conterminous United States↗
USGS2024

Afterslip and creep in the rate-dependent framework: Joint inversion of borehole strain and GNSS displacements for the Mw 7.1 Ridgecrest earthquake

The elusive transition toward afterslip following an earthquake is challenging to capture with typical data resolution limits. A dense geodetic network recorded the Mw 7.1 Ridgecrest earthquake, including 16 Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) stations and 3 borehole strainmeters (BSM). The sub-nanostrain precision and sub-second sampling rate of BSMs bridges a gap between conventional seismologic and geodetic methods, exemplified by atypical postseismic shear strain reversals observed at nearfield (<2 km) station B921 that remain unexplained. We jointly invert GNSS displacements and BSM strains for coseismic and postseismic slip spanning hours to months over 7 independent periods. Cosiesmically, our model resolves the largest slip magnitudes of up to 6.6 m on the mainshock rupture plane, with similar patterns to other inferred slip distributions. The foreshock fault appears to slip coincidently with mainshock, revealing potential asperities activated during the preceding Mw 6.4 event. Postseismically, the best-fitting models adhere to mechanical rate-and-state expectations of logarithmically decaying slip adjacent to the coseismic rupture terminus, and where deep rheologic conditions favor creep. Most spatial variation occurs in the early postseismic timeframe (<1–2 weeks), with evidence for regional rheologic control and static stress dependence. Triggered creep on the neighboring Garlock Fault unexpectedly persists for >178 days—further highlighting the importance of fault networks in postseismic stress redistribution, critical to assessing future hazard.

Journal of Geophysics Research↗