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At least 163 records · Page 9Linked to original sources

National Streamflow Information Program: Implementation Status Report

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) operates and maintains a nationwide network of about 7,500 streamgages designed to provide and interpret long-term, accurate, and unbiased streamflow information to meet the multiple needs of many diverse national, regional, state, and local users. The National Streamflow Information Program (NSIP) was initiated in 2003 in response to Congressional and stakeholder concerns about (1) the decrease in the number of operating streamgages, including a disproportionate loss of streamgages with a long period of record; (2) the inability of the USGS to continue operating high-priority streamgages in an environment of reduced funding through partnerships; and (3) the increasing demand for streamflow information due to emerging resource-management issues and new data-delivery capabilities. The NSIP's mission is to provide the streamflow information and understanding required to meet national, regional, state, and local needs. Most of the existing streamgages are funded through partnerships with more than 850 other Federal, state, tribal, and local agencies. Currently, about 90 percent of the streamgages send data to the World Wide Web in near-real time (some information is transmitted within 15 minutes, whereas some lags by about 4 hours). The streamflow information collected at USGS streamgages is used for many purposes: *In water-resource appraisals and allocations - to determine how much water is available and how it is being allocated; *To provide streamflow information required by interstate agreements, compacts, and court decrees; *For engineering design of reservoirs, bridges, roads, culverts, and treatment plants; *For the operation of reservoirs, the operation of locks and dams for navigation purposes, and power production; *To identify changes in streamflow resulting from changes in land use, water use, and climate; *For streamflow forecasting, flood planning, and flood forecasting; *To support water-quality programs by allowing determination of constituent loads and fluxes; and *For characterizing and evaluating instream conditions for habitat assessments, instream-flow requirements, and recreation.

Fact Sheet↗

Detecting sea-level hazards: Simple regression-based methods for calculating the acceleration of sea level

This report documents the development of statistical tools used to quantify the hazard presented by the response of sea-level elevation to natural or anthropogenic changes in climate and ocean circulation. A hazard is a physical process (or processes) that, when combined with vulnerability (or susceptibility to the hazard), results in risk. This study presents the development and comparison of new and existing sea-level analysis methods, exploration of the strengths and weaknesses of the methods using synthetic time series, and when appropriate, synthesis of the application of the method to observed sea-level time series. These reports are intended to enhance material presented in peer-reviewed journal articles where it is not always possible to provide the level of detail that might be necessary to fully support or recreate published results. The purpose of this report is to document and compare three simple methodologies that have previously been used to provide estimates with associated errors of the acceleration of sea-level elevation. These techniques have been used by coastal scientists and planners in assessing coastal risk over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. Because relative sea-level (SL) elevation time series contain energetic fluctuations at many time scales, extracting what can be relatively small rate and acceleration signals (along with estimates of the error) from much larger “noise” has proven to be both difficult and controversial. Acceleration is a preferred measure of SL response to recent changes in the Earth’s climate because over time scales of 100 years or less slow vertical land motions (such as glacial isostatic adjustment) contribute only to the linear signal and not to acceleration, thus reducing the complexity of the analysis. Hence acceleration is useful if the goal of a study is to characterize and quantify the hazard associated with the changing relative elevation of water with respect to land on decadal time scales. Although in some cases it may be necessary to determine the cause of relative sea level rise, as a first step, it is important to accurately estimate the magnitude of the threat. Most researchers agree that global sea level (GSL) rose persistently through much of the 20th century at about 1.5–2.0 millimeters per year (mm/yr). There is far less agreement about whether the rate of sea-level rise (SLR) is increasing (that is, an acceleration in SL). Recent studies, and most of their predecessors, use tide gage data to quantify SL acceleration, A SL (t). In the current study, three techniques were used to calculate acceleration from tide gage data, and of those examined, it was determined that the two techniques based on sliding a regression window through the time series are more robust compared to the technique that fits a single quadratic form to the entire time series, particularly if there is temporal variation in the magnitude of the acceleration. The single-fit quadratic regression method has been the most commonly used technique in determining acceleration in tide gage data. The inability of the single-fit method to account for time-varying acceleration may explain some of the inconsistent findings between investigators. Properly quantifying A SL (t) from field measurements is of particular importance in evaluating numerical models of past, present, and future SLR resulting from anticipated climate change.

Open-File Report↗

Impacts of Low-Flow and Stream-Temperature Changes on Endangered Atlantic Salmon - Current Research

Recent climate studies in New England and the northeastern United States have shown evidence of physical changes over time, including trends toward earlier snowmelt runoff, decreasing river ice, and increasing spring water temperatures. A U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) study funded by the National Global Warming and Wildlife Science Center will be investigating changes in summer low streamflows and stream temperatures and the potential effects of those changes on endangered Atlantic salmon populations. The study also will evaluate management options that would be most likely to mitigate the effects of any changes in streamflow and temperature.

Fact Sheet↗

A regional synthesis of climate data to inform the 2025 State Wildlife Action Plans in the Northeast U.S.

The State Wildlife Action Plans (SWAPs) are proactive planning documents, known as “comprehensive wildlife conservation strategies,” that assess the health of each state’s wildlife and habitats, identify current management and conservation challenges, and outline needed actions to conserve natural resources over the long term. SWAPs are revised every 10 years, with the last revision in 2015 and the next revision anticipated in 2025. State managers have a long history of managing for threats such as land-use change, pollution, and harvest. However, they have expressed a lack of expertise and capacity to keep pace with the rapid advances in climate science and noted that much of the information available is not scaled to meet their needs; thus making the prospect of integrating climate information into SWAPs a daunting task. (Johnson, 2018; Yocum et al., 2021; Blandford, 2022). This report, led by the Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center (NE CASC), directly addresses SWAP climate science data needs through a Northeast regional synthesis across four key areas of climate science: 1) observed and projected climate changes, 2) species responses to climate change, 3) climate vulnerabilities and risks, and 4) scale-specific adaptation strategies and actions. In addition, case studies of climate adaptation efforts and climate threat to-action narratives provide illustrative examples of how climate change frameworks and tools are being operationalized in decision-making processes related to Regional Species of Greatest Conservation Need (RSGCN) and their habitats across the region. Lists of recent climate resources were also synthesized into extensive data tables to provide SWAP writing teams with a comprehensive platform of information to support content development (AFWA 2022).

Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachuse↗

American pikas (Ochotona princeps) in northwestern Nevada: A newly discovered population at a low-elevation site

The central tenet of island biogeography theory - that species assemblages on islands are functions of island area, isolation from mainlands, and vicariance - has been altered by the demonstrable effects that rapid climate change is imposing on insular faunas, at least in isolated mountaintops. Although populations of American pikas (Ochotona princeps) continue to suffer extirpations, and although the lower bounds of the pika's elevational distribution are shifting upslope across the Great Basin, we report here on the new discovery of a low-elevation population of pikas in a mountain range from which they had not been reported previously. This discovery, particularly in the context of relatively rapid ecological change, highlights the importance of seeking out original sources of information and performing spatially extensive fieldwork. Results presented here further illustrate that although thermal influences appear to be the single strongest determinant of pika distribution currently, such influences interact with a number of other factors to determine persistence.

Western North American Naturalist↗

Sagebrush, greater sage-grouse, and the occurrence and importance of forbs

Big sagebrush ( Artemisia tridentata Nutt.) ecosystems provide habitat for sagebrush-obligate wildlife species such as the Greater Sage-Grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ). The understory of big sagebrush plant communities is composed of grasses and forbs that are important sources of cover and food for wildlife. The grass component is well described in the literature, but the composition, abundance, and habitat role of forbs in these communities is largely unknown. Our objective was to synthesize information about forbs and their importance to Greater Sage-Grouse diets and habitats, how rangeland management practices affect forbs, and how forbs respond to changes in temperature and precipitation. We also sought to identify research gaps and needs concerning forbs in big sagebrush plant communities. We searched for relevant literature including journal articles and state and federal agency reports. Our results indicated that in the spring and summer, Greater Sage-Grouse diets consist of forbs (particularly species in the Asteraceae family), arthropods, and lesser amounts of sagebrush. The diets transition to sagebrush in fall and winter. Forbs provide cover for Greater Sage-Grouse individuals at their lekking, nesting, and brood-rearing sites, and the species has a positive relationship with arthropod presence. The effect of grazing on native forbs may be compounded by invasion of nonnative species and differs depending on grazing intensity. The effect of fire on forbs varies greatly and may depend on time elapsed since burning. In addition, chemical and mechanical treatments affect annual and perennial forbs differently. Temperature and precipitation influence forb phenology, biomass, and abundance differently among species. Our review identified several uncertainties and research needs about forbs in big sagebrush ecosystems. First, in many cases the literature about forbs is reported only at the genus or functional type level. Second, information about forb composition and abundance near lekking sites is limited, despite the fact that lekking sites are an important center of Greater Sage-Grouse activity. Third, there is little published literature on the relationship between forbs and precipitation and between forbs and temperature, thereby limiting our ability to understand potential responses of forbs to climate change. While there is wide agreement among Greater Sage-Grouse biologists that forbs are an important habitat component, our knowledge about the distribution and environmental responses of forb species in big sagebrush plant communities is limited. Our work for the first time synthesizes the current knowledge regarding forbs in sagebrush ecosystems and their importance for Greater Sage-Grouse and identifies additional research needs for effective conservation and management.

Western North American Naturalist↗

Evidence of volcanic and glacial activity in Chryse and Acidalia Planitiae, Mars

Chryse and Acidalia Planitiae show numerous examples of enigmatic landforms previously interpreted to have been influenced by a water/ice-rich geologic history. These landforms include giant polygons bounded by kilometer-scale arcuate troughs, bright pitted mounds, and mesa-like features. To investigate the significance of the last we have analyzed in detail the region between 60°N, 290°E and 10°N, 360°E utilizing HiRISE (High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment) images as well as regional-scale data for context. The mesas may be analogous to terrestrial tuyas (emergent sub-ice volcanoes), although definitive proof has not been identified. We also report on a blocky unit and associated landforms (drumlins, eskers, inverted valleys, kettle holes) consistent with ice-emplaced volcanic or volcano-sedimentary flows. The spatial association between tuya-like mesas, ice-emplaced flows, and further possible evidence of volcanism (deflated flow fronts, volcanic vents, columnar jointing, rootless cones), and an extensive fluid-rich substratum (giant polygons, bright mounds, rampart craters), allows for the possibility of glaciovolcanic activity in the region.Landforms indicative of glacial activity on Chryse/Acidalia suggest a paleoclimatic environment remarkably different from today's. Climate changes on Mars (driven by orbital/obliquity changes) or giant outflow channel activity could have resulted in ice-sheet-related landforms far from the current polar caps.

Icarus↗

Terrestrial essential climate variables (ECVs) at a glance

The Global Terrestrial Observing System, Global Climate Observing System, World Meteorological Organization, and Committee on Earth Observation Satellites all support consistent global land observations and measurements. To accomplish this goal, the Global Terrestrial Observing System defined 'essential climate variables' as measurements of atmosphere, oceans, and land that are technically and economically feasible for systematic observation and that are needed to meet the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and requirements of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The following are the climate variables defined by the Global Terrestrial Observing System that relate to terrestrial measurements. Several of them are currently measured most appropriately by in-place observations, whereas others are suitable for measurement by remote sensing technologies. The U.S. Geological Survey is the steward of the Landsat archive, satellite imagery collected from 1972 to the present, that provides a potential basis for deriving long-term, global-scale, accurate, timely and consistent measurements of many of these essential climate variables.

Scientific Investigations Map↗

Sediment accumulation in prairie wetlands under a changing climate: The relative roles of landscape and precipitation

Sediment accumulation threatens the viability and hydrologic functioning of many naturally formed depressional wetlands across the interior regions of North America. These wetlands provide many ecosystem services and vital habitats for diverse plant and animal communities. Climate change may further impact sediment accumulation rates in the context of current land use patterns. We estimated sediment accretion in wetlands within a region renowned for its large populations of breeding waterfowl and migrant shorebirds and examined the relative roles of precipitation and land use context in the sedimentation process. We modeled rates of sediment accumulation from 1971 through 2100 using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) with a sediment delivery ratio and the Unit Stream Power Erosion Deposition model (USPED). These models predicted that by 2100, 21–33 % of wetlands filled completely with sediment and 27–46 % filled by half with sediments; estimates are consistent with measured sediment accumulation rates in the region reported by empirical studies. Sediment accumulation rates were strongly influenced by size of the catchment, greater coverage of tilled landscape within the catchment, and steeper slopes. Conservation efforts that incorporate the relative risk of infilling of wetlands with sediments, thus emphasizing areas of high topographic relief and large watersheds, may benefit wetland-dependent biota.

Prairie Pothole region↗

Modeling the geographic distribution of Ixodes scapularis and Ixodes pacificus (Acari: Ixodidae) in the contiguous United States

In addition to serving as vectors of several other human pathogens, the black-legged tick, Ixodes scapularis Say, and western black-legged tick, Ixodes pacificus Cooley and Kohls, are the primary vectors of the spirochete ( Borrelia burgdorferi ) that causes Lyme disease, the most common vector-borne disease in the United States. Over the past two decades, the geographic range of I. pacificus has changed modestly while, in contrast, the I. scapularis range has expanded substantially, which likely contributes to the concurrent expansion in the distribution of human Lyme disease cases in the Northeastern, North-Central and Mid-Atlantic states. Identifying counties that contain suitable habitat for these ticks that have not yet reported established vector populations can aid in targeting limited vector surveillance resources to areas where tick invasion and potential human risk are likely to occur. We used county-level vector distribution information and ensemble modeling to map the potential distribution of I. scapularis and I. pacificus in the contiguous United States as a function of climate, elevation, and forest cover. Results show that I. pacificus is currently present within much of the range classified by our model as suitable for establishment. In contrast, environmental conditions are suitable for I. scapularis to continue expanding its range into northwestern Minnesota, central and northern Michigan, within the Ohio River Valley, and inland from the southeastern and Gulf coasts. Overall, our ensemble models show suitable habitat for I. scapularis in 441 eastern counties and for I. pacificus in 11 western counties where surveillance records have not yet supported classification of the counties as established.

Journal of Medical Entomology↗

Influences of glacial melt and permafrost thaw on the age of dissolved organic carbon in the Yukon River basin

Responses of near-surface permafrost and glacial ice to climate change are of particular significance for understanding long-term effects on global carbon cycling and carbon export by high-latitude northern rivers. Here we report Δ 14 C-dissolved organic carbon (DOC) values and dissolved organic matter optical data for the Yukon River, 15 tributaries of the Yukon River, glacial meltwater, and groundwater and soil water end-member sources draining to the Yukon River, with the goal of assessing mobilization of aged DOC within the watershed. Ancient DOC was associated with glacial meltwater and groundwater sources. In contrast, DOC from watersheds dominated by peat soils and underlain by permafrost was typically enriched in Δ 14 C indicating that degradation of ancient carbon stores is currently not occurring at large enough scales to quantitatively influence bulk DOC exports from those landscapes. On an annual basis, DOC exported was predominantly modern during the spring period throughout the Yukon River basin and became older through summer-fall and winter periods, suggesting that contributions of older DOC from soils, glacial meltwaters, and groundwater are significant during these months. Our data indicate that rapidly receding glaciers and increasing groundwater inputs will likely result in greater contributions of older DOC in the Yukon River and its tributaries in coming decades.

Alaska↗

Hydrogeologic characterization, groundwater chemistry, and vulnerability assessment, Ute Mountain Ute Reservation, Colorado and Utah

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Ute Mountain Ute Tribe (UMUT), initiated a study in 2016 to increase understanding of the hydrogeology and chemistry of groundwater within select areas of the Ute Mountain Ute Reservation (UMUR) in Colorado and Utah, identify vulnerabilities to the system and other natural resources, and outline information needs to aid in the understanding and protection of groundwater resources. The results presented for this study can be used to support the UMUT’s goal of protecting their vital groundwater resources on the UMUR. Hydrogeologic conditions were characterized for the surficial aquifer contained in Quaternary-age unconsolidated surficial deposits and the Dakota aquifer contained in the Cretaceous-age Dakota Sandstone. In the surficial aquifer, median depth to water ranges from about 5.4 to 17.2 feet below land surface in the Farm and Ranch Enterprise area and 11 to 34 feet below land surface in the Towaoc area, and the water table slopes generally southwest or south. A map of depth to the top of the Dakota Sandstone was constructed from existing well data. Depths range from zero in outcrop areas to more than 3,000 feet below land surface on mesas in the southeastern part of the UMUR. Groundwater-chemistry data were collected by the UMUT from 13 springs and 31 wells from 1996 through 2017. Specific conductance was much lower for samples from springs than from wells; median values were 512 and 6,024 microsiemens per centimeter at 25 degrees Celsius, respectively. Spring samples were well oxygenated. A few well samples were anoxic (dissolved oxygen concentrations less than 0.5 milligrams per liter [mg/L]), indicating reducing conditions in the aquifer. About 75 percent of spring samples had fresh water (total dissolved solids concentrations less than 1,000 mg/L), and about 85 percent of well samples had brackish or highly saline water (total dissolved solids concentrations greater than 1,000 mg/L). Water type for springs on the Ute Mountains was calcium bicarbonate. Lower-altitude springs had a calcium-sulfate water type. Most well samples had sodium as the dominant cation, and sulfate, bicarbonate, and chloride as the dominant anions. Fluoride concentrations in about 45 percent of well samples were greater than an agricultural-use standard of 2 mg/L. Nitrate plus nitrite concentrations in most spring and well samples were less than about 1.6 mg/L per liter. Concentrations in samples from wells in the irrigated agricultural area were elevated; the maximum concentration was 78.5 mg/L. About one-half of the trace-element samples had concentrations that were less than laboratory reporting limits. Only aluminum, arsenic, and selenium in spring samples, and boron and selenium in well samples, were detected at concentrations greater than surface-water standards or water-quality standards for agricultural use of groundwater. Only three organic compounds, the pesticides alachlor and atrazine and the volatile organic compound di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate, were detected in well samples. The Escherichia coli bacteria was detected in 47 and 23 percent of samples from wells and springs, respectively. The E. coli detections included samples from three culturally significant springs, which did not meet the UMUT cultural-use standard of total absence of E. coli. Tritium and carbon-14 were the primary environmental tracers used for interpreting groundwater ages for Lopez 2 Spring and five wells (AP–1, 5000 Block, Cottonwood Spring, Goodknight, and SE Toe). Water from the AP–1 well contained a mixture of pre- and post-1950s recharge. Tritium and carbon-14 recharge ages for Lopez 2 Spring (post-1950s in age), Goodknight and SE Toe wells (pre-1950s in age), and Cottonwood Spring well (primarily pre-1950s in age) are supported by helium-4 data. The helium-4 data for the 5000 Block well are inconsistent with the tritium and carbon-14 age of pre-1950s recharge because of interference caused by high methane concentrations in the water. Springs and surficial deposits are more vulnerable to contamination from anthropogenic chemicals than deeper bedrock wells. Bedrock aquifers are vulnerable in areas where the geologic formations containing the aquifers are exposed at the land surface. Groundwater in deep bedrock aquifers is likely thousands of years old and is not currently affected by present-day land uses. Both shallow and deep groundwater are vulnerable to naturally occurring salts and minerals, such as of total dissolved solids, major ions, nitrate, and trace elements. Effects of a changing climate on water resources and other ecological characteristics of the UMUR could include changes in evapotranspiration, a decrease in snowpack, decreased aquifer recharge and flow of springs, a decrease in soil moisture, and increased occurrence of wildfires and forest mortality. Of particular interest for the UMUT are possible effects of a changing climate on medicinal and culturally important plants and springs Several information needs were identified during this study that would aid in the understanding and protection of groundwater resources on the UMUR. These include well-completion information for bedrock wells, the collection of environmental tracer data at additional wells, the addition of methane and hydrocarbon analysis to well sampling plans, and the resampling of springs and wells that were last sampled in 2002 or earlier.

Colorado↗

Southern Rockies Landscape Conservation Cooperative unit watershed erosion potential prioritization for check-dam installation

Changes in land-use practices and the extirpation (local extinction) of beaver populations in the early 20th century during European settlement are believed to have resulted in many changes in how streams in the Western United States function. Some of the negative changes that have resulted include stream channelization, soil erosion, changing vegetation, water turbidity, and a loss of overland flow. Efforts to restore streams and reduce soil erosion by water have included reintroductions of beaver, incorporating Native American traditional knowledge of dry-land farming techniques, and the installation of rigid check-dams. Many of these efforts have been successful in improving both intermittent and perennial stream function. Therefore, stakeholders in the Southern Rockies Landscape Conservation Cooperative (SRLCC) have identified a need to prioritize streams within their region of interest for the installation of check-dams to continue restoration and conservation efforts and to improve sediment catchment. Using Natural Resource Conservation Service soil databases, topographic features derived from digital elevation models, stream networks, and regional climatic patterns, I developed a ranking system for watershed potential erosion rates and suitability for check-dam placement across the SRLCC. This ranking system serves as a first step for land managers to prioritize areas for check-dam installation based on relatively static factors (soil properties, topography, and hydrology) that can contribute to rates of soil erosion by water and the stability of check-dams. Many other relatively dynamic factors over time can contribute to rates of soil erosion by water, such as recent wildfire events, changes in weather patterns and extreme climate events, and changing land-use such as grazing, logging, mining, development, and cultivation. These factors that influence vegetative and biological soil crusts cover are also important elements to the potential erosion of soil by water. Because of this, SRLCC stakeholders might consider further evaluation of the watersheds identified here as high ranking. Final watershed prioritization among the high-ranking watersheds identified here should include current knowledge of land-use and land-cover estimates to identify areas at risk for soil erosion or degree of existing erosion problems.

Open-File Report↗

Land cover change, biogeochemical modelling of carbon stocks, and climate change in West Africa

The carbon in ecosystems exists in dynamic soil and vegetation pools which vary in amounts and cycle with the global atmosphere at varying rates. These stocks and fluxes play important roles in global carbon regulation and in the maintenance of goods and services. Changes in land cover or ecosystems result in increased or decreased fluxes to the atmosphere and play a major role in climate regulation. Carbon in soil is closely coupled to soil nitrogen and the continued mining of soil for crops or fuel without replenishment of nutrients results in decreased productivity and impacts food security. The assessment of these processes across large areas, although difficult, is aided by the integration of simulation modelling (biogeochemical and ecosystem) and remote sensing. We acquired satellite imagery for four periods from the 1960s to 2000s, trained environmental scientists from 14 countries on image analysis and interpretation, and now report systematic analyses of land cover changes in select countries of West Africa and quantify potential impacts of climate change and management at specific sites. Statistical changes and maps of land cover are documented for most countries. Senegal, for example, illustrates a 57 percent loss in dense forests between 1975 and 2000 with an even greater loss rate in the preceding 10 years. Bare soil increased 16.6 percent, often related to unproductive “badland” formation. Settlements increased 45.6 percent, and reforestation replaced bare sandy areas for sand dune stabilization. In some countries (Senegal and Ghana), the impact of these conversions and changes in land management and future projections has been incorporated into biogeochemical models to quantify carbon changes and project future carbon and crop scenarios. We present current assessments of carbon fluxes and the availability of data for these West African countries.

Conference Paper↗

Global climate change and wildlife in North America

It is widely accepted by the scientific community that the earth, which has always experienced climate variation, is now undergoing a period of rapid climate change that is enhanced by anthropogenic atmospheric carbon enrichment during the past 100 years. These climatic changes are accelerating and projections for the next 100 years indicate extensive warming in most (but not all) areas, changing patterns of precipitation, and a significant acceleration of sea level rise. Other likely components of ongoing climate change include changes in season lengths, decreasing range of nighttime versus daytime temperatures, declining snowpack, and increasing frequency and intensity of severe weather events. The many components of climate change, and especially the unprecedented rapid rate of change, are just as important as increasing temperatures. Wildlife species are closely adapted to their environments and readily respond to climate variation. However, as discussed in this technical review, the climate change now underway has extensive potential to affect wildlife throughout North America, either directly or indirectly through responses to changing habitat conditions. When considered in combination with other factors (e.g., pollution, ozone depletion, urbanization, etc.), the potential effect is even greater. The effects of climate change on populations and range distributions of wildlife are expected to be species specific and highly variable, with some effects considered negative and others considered positive. In North America the ranges of habitats and wildlife are predicted to generally move northward as temperatures increase. Variations in this overall pattern will be dependent upon specific local conditions, changing precipitation patterns, and the response of different species to different components of climate change. It follows that the structure of plant–animal communities will also change. Ignoring climate change is likely to increasingly result in failure to reach wildlife management objectives. Wildlife managers need to become knowledgeable about climate change, ways to cope with it, and ways to take advantage of it. Management options currently available include protecting coastal wetlands to allow for sea level rise, reducing the risks to wildlife from potential catastrophic events, adjusting yield and harvest models, accounting for known climatic variations, and taking climate change into consideration when selecting the location and other characteristics of conservation areas. Wildlife managers also need to expect the unexpected and reduce nonclimate stressors on ecosystems. Overall, wildlife managers can minimize negative impacts to wildlife and take advantage of positive aspects by planning ahead and employing adaptive management.

Technical Review↗

Appendix C: Central sands lakes study technical report: Modeling documentation

This report provides the necessary documentation of the numerical models developed for the Central Sands Lake study in central Wisconsin and will be included as a technical appendix in the report to the Wisconsin State Legislature by the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (WDNR) in response to 2017 Wisconsin Act 10. This legislation directed WDNR to determine whether existing and potential groundwater withdrawals are causing or are likely to cause significant reduction of mean seasonal water levels at Pleasant Lake, Long Lake, and Plainfield Lake (s. 281.34(7m)(2)(b), Wis. Stats.) in Waushara County, Wisconsin. To evaluate the potential hydrologic connection between groundwater withdrawals and the nearby study lakes, hydrologic models were created that focused on the lakes of interest and yet were large enough to cover a broad enough region to extend to the major hydrologic boundaries of the natural flow system. The areas near the lakes require finer-scale grid discretization (or spacing) to better represent the lakes and streams in the model, but also need to cover a large enough area to include the groundwater withdrawal locations that have the potential to cause reduction in water levels in the lakes. To accomplish these goals, three groundwater models were created: a regional model extending to major hydrologic boundaries; and two inset models, inheriting boundaries from the regional model but focused near the lakes. Each of the inset models, in turn, included a detailed area close to the lakes surrounded by an area at the same spatial scale as the regional model (Figure 1). To support WDNR in evaluating the connection between groundwater withdrawals and lake levels, a representative time period was required over which to compare land use with and without irrigated agriculture and for WDNR to evaluate potential lake stage and flux changes related to irrigated agriculture. WDNR chose the climate period of 1981-2018 to be representative of a typical period and provided two land use scenarios—one with no irrigated agriculture and one with assumed crop rotations similar to current conditions—to simulate with groundwater models to, then, compare lake responses with. As a result, simulations over this climate record are not intended to recreate the history of 1981-2018 because land use changed over that time. These runs are, instead, intended to provide a basis on which to compare land use with and without irrigation-related groundwater withdrawals based on the current arrangement of land use and a varied climatic record. Groundwater withdrawals focused on irrigated-agriculture-related water use because greater than 95% of groundwater withdrawal in the two inset models around the study lakes is for irrigated agriculture water use. The period of 2012-2018 was used for parameter estimation (synonymously referred to as “history matching”) for the groundwater models. This time period was chosen because it includes the most complete water use records to simulate groundwater withdrawals. History matching was performed using groundwater elevations, lake stages, and streamflow observations over the 2012-2018 time period and processed observations derived from those raw data. Climatic data were incorporated into the model using a soil-water balance approach. A soil water balance model was constructed at the scale of the regional groundwater model to both calculate recharge based on land use and climate, and in the long-term climate-period runs, to estimate water use required by irrigated agriculture to apply as well boundary conditions in the groundwater model in the absence of reported water use values over that period.

Wisconsin↗

Greenhouse gas balances in coastal ecosystems: Current challenges in “blue carbon” estimation and significance to national greenhouse gas inventories

Coastal wetlands are defined herein as inundated, vegetated ecosystems with hydrology, and biogeochemistry influenced by sea levels, at timescales of tides to millennia. Coastal wetlands are necessary components of global greenhouse gas estimation and scenario modeling, both for continental and oceanic mass balances. The carbon pools and fluxes on coastal lands, especially those influenced by tidal drivers and sea level rise, are distinct in their magnitude, rates, and uncertainties. We describe herein the pathways taken for a US scale estimation of blue carbon based on annual timesteps and bottom-up modeling, as appropriate for the first effort to include coastal wetlands in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines for a National Greenhouse Gas Inventory (NGGI). As such, we summarize multiple efforts to reconcile mapping, modeling, and measurement issues and we report the assumptions we made based on data availability. Provided as requested feedback to the IPCC. Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA) evaluation of guidance criteria, these analyses synergistically point scientists, practitioners, and policy makers toward the greatest uncertainties to address in future assessments: coastal wetland methane emissions and carbon dioxide emissions associated with the fate of eroded soil. This is a story of what was learned in the 2014–2018 NASA Carbon Monitoring System project (https://carbon.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/cms_projects.pl), how it informs “good practice” (IPCC 2006) in reporting coastal wetland emissions and removals, and where it points scientifically toward data needs at different temporal and spatial scales.

Book chapter↗

Dynamic reserve design in the face of climate change and urbanization

Reserve design is a process that must address many ecological, social, and political factors to successfully identify parcels of land in need of protection to sustain wildlife populations and other natural resources. Making land acquisition choices for a large, terrestrial protected area is difficult because it occurs over a long timeframe and may involve consideration future conditions such as climate and urbanization changes. Decision makers need to consider factors including: order of parcel purchasing given budget constraints, future uncertainty, potential future landscape‐scale changes from urbanization and climate. In central Florida, two new refuges and the expansion of a third refuge are in various stages of USFWS planning. The Everglades Headwaters National Wildlife Refuge (EHNWR) has recently been established, is at the top of the Presidential Administration’s priority conservation areas, and is cited by the Secretary of DOI routinely in the context of conservation. The new refuges were strategically located for both for species adaptation from climate change impacts as well as currently being host to a number of important threatened and endangered species and habitats. We plan to combine a structured decision making framework, optimal solution theory, and output from ecological and sociological models (these modeling efforts were previously funded by DOI partners) that incorporate climate change to provide guidance for EHNWR reserve design. Utilizing a SDM approach and optimal solution theory, decision support tools will be developed that will incorporate stakeholder and agency objectives into targeting conservation lands both through fee simple purchase and other incentives such as easements based on ecological and socioeconomic modeling outputs driven by climate change.

Report↗