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At least 163 records · Page 9Linked to original sources

Impacts of climate change and variability on transportation systems and infrastructure: Gulf Coast study, phase I

Climate affects the design, construction, safety, operations, and maintenance of transportation infrastructure and systems. The prospect of a changing climate raises critical questions regarding how alterations in temperature, precipitation, storm events, and other aspects of the climate could affect the nation's roads, airports, rail, transit systems, pipelines, ports, and waterways. Phase I of this regional assessment of climate change and its potential impacts on transportation systems addresses these questions for the region of the U.S. central Gulf Coast between Galveston, Texas and Mobile, Alabama. This region contains multimodal transportation infrastructure that is critical to regional and national transportation services. Historical trends and future climate scenarios were used to establish a context for examining the potential effects of climate change on all major transportation modes within the region. Climate changes anticipated during the next 50 to 100 years for the central Gulf Coast include warming temperatures, changes in precipitation patterns, and increased storm intensity. The warming of oceans and decline of polar ice sheets is expected to accelerate the rate of sea level rise globally. The effects of sea level rise in most central Gulf Coast counties will be exacerbated by the sinking of the land surface, which is accounted for in this assessment. The significance of these climate factors for transportation systems was assessed. Warming temperatures are likely to increase the costs of transportation construction, maintenance, and operations. More frequent extreme precipitation events may disrupt transportation networks with flooding and visibility problems. Relative sea level rise will make much of the existing infrastructure more prone to frequent or permanent inundation--27 percent of the major roads, 9 percent of the rail lines, and 72 percent of the ports are built on land at or below 122 cm (4 feet) in elevation. Increased storm intensity may lead to increased service disruption and infrastructure damage: More than half of the area's major highways (64 percent of Interstates; 57 percent of arterials), almost half of the rail miles, 29 airports, and virtually all of the ports are below 7 m (23 feet) in elevation and subject to flooding and possible damage due to hurricane storm surge. Consideration of these factors in today's transportation decisions and planning processes should lead to a more robust, resilient, and cost-effective transportation network in the coming decades.

Gulf Coast

Final report to the Gulf Coast Joint Venture: Black Skimmer and Gull-billed Tern

Many bird species are of conservation concern across the Northern Gulf of Mexico from stressors such as human disturbance, predation, and habitat loss due to directional environmental change (e.g., increased sea-level rise and storm frequency and intensity, human infrastructure, changes in land use). Consequently, managers need decision-support tools that can help to answer important conservation questions for different species (e.g., which areas and how much area should be targeted by management actions to meet a particular species’ needs). The Black Skimmer ( Rynchops niger ; hereafter Skimmer) and Gull-billed Tern ( Gelochelidon nilotica ; hereafter Tern) are designated as U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) Species of Conservation Concern and Gulf Coast Joint Venture (GCJV) Priority Species with nesting habitats in the USFWS Gulf Coast Biological Planning Units (BPU; Tirpak et al. 2017). They are also representative of a variety of other beach and barrier-island nesting birds whose Gulf Coast nesting habitats are threatened by directional environmental change. The Skimmer has breeding pair targets in six GCJV Initiative Areas (IA), and the Tern has breeding pair targets in five GCJV IAs. Our goal was to inform GCJV management scenarios that efficiently and simultaneously achieve both species’ targets by prioritizing sites where management actions (e.g., maintain existing habitat or change habitat, geomorphology [landmass area, landmass elevation], predator management, human and dog restrictions) could be implemented.

Final Report

Co-producing coastal bird research on the Gulf Coast through structured decision making (SDM) and constructed value of information (CVoI)

Conservation practitioners face the complex challenge of addressing global biodiversity threats within social-ecological systems with multiple jurisdictions, numerous interest groups, and changing environmental conditions. Bridging the research-to-implementation gap between scientists and managers, which integrates diverse perspectives that represent the variety of considerations impacting management outcomes can help to inform efficient and effective conservation. Avian conservation programs along the U.S. Gulf Coast exemplify these challenges, as management decisions must address diverse threats to declining coastal bird populations across large breeding, wintering, and migratory ranges while facing uncertainty surrounding the efficacy of large-scale strategies. This provides opportunities for improving management through co-produced research with structured decision making (SDM). We present a case study that demonstrates the application of co-production principles and SDM to collaboratively develop high-priority research questions informing effective avian conservation and management. Additionally, we applied a constructed value of information (CVoI) framework to identify and prioritize which uncertainties to reduce and better understand how research questions impact management actions. The integration of SDM’s five-step decision making framework ensured key principles of co-production were met, while co-production enhanced SDM outcomes by incorporating diverse perspectives and knowledge bases. CVoI further allowed participants to collectively determine final high-priority research questions in the face of complexity and uncertainty. Together, these approaches supported co-produced knowledge-generation, strategic hypothesis prioritization, and identification of research questions most likely to improve conservation decisions. This case study from the U.S. Gulf Coast demonstrates how co-produced research through SDM offers a broadly applicable approach for navigating ecological complexity and bridging the research-to-implementation gap in avian conservation.

Gulf Coast

Earthquake-induced burial of archaeological sites along the southern Washington coast about A.D. 1700

Although inhabited by thousands of people when first reached by Europeans, the Pacific coast of southern Washington has little recognized evidence of prehistoric human occupation. This apparent contradiction may be explained partly by geologic evidence for coastal submergence during prehistoric earthquakes on the Cascadia subduction zone. Recently discovered archaeological sites, exposed in the banks of two tidal streams, show evidence for earthquake-induced submergence and consequent burial by intertidal mud about A.D. 1700. We surmise that, because of prehistoric earthquakes, other archaeological sites may now lie hidden beneath the surfaces of modern tidelands. Such burial of archaeological sites raises questions about the estimation of prehistoric human population densities along coasts subject to earthquake-induced submergence.

Washington

Modeling erosion of ice-rich permafrost bluffs along the Alaskan Beaufort Sea coast

The Arctic climate is changing, inducing accelerating retreat of ice-rich permafrost coastal bluffs. Along Alaska’s Beaufort Sea coast, erosion rates have increased roughly threefold from 6.8 to 19 m yr −1 since 1955 while the sea ice-free season has increased roughly twofold from 45 to 100 days since 1979. We develop a numerical model of bluff retreat to assess the relative roles of the length of sea ice-free season, sea level, water temperature, nearshore wavefield, and permafrost temperature in controlling erosion rates in this setting. The model captures the processes of erosion observed in short-term monitoring experiments along the Beaufort Sea coast, including evolution of melt notches, topple of ice wedge-bounded blocks, and degradation of these blocks. Model results agree with time-lapse imagery of bluff evolution and time series of ocean-based instrumentation. Erosion is highly episodic with 40% of erosion is accomplished during less than 5% of the sea ice-free season. Among the formulations of the submarine erosion rate we assessed, we advocate those that employ both water temperature and nearshore wavefield. As high water levels are a prerequisite for erosion, any future changes that increase the frequency with which water levels exceed the base of the bluffs will increase rates of coastal erosion. The certain increases in sea level and potential changes in storminess will both contribute to this effect. As water temperature also influences erosion rates, any further expansion of the sea ice-free season into the midsummer period of greatest insolation is likely to result in an additional increase in coastal retreat rates.

Alaska

The relative contribution of waves, tides, and nontidal residuals to extreme total water levels on U.S. West Coast sandy beaches

To better understand how individual processes combine to cause flooding and erosion events, we investigate the relative contribution of tides, waves, and nontidal residuals to extreme total water levels (TWLs) at the shoreline of U.S. West Coast sandy beaches. Extreme TWLs, defined as the observed annual maximum event and the simulated 100 year return level event, peak in Washington, and are on average larger in Washington and Oregon than in California. The relative contribution of wave-induced and still water levels (SWL) to the 100 year TWL event is similar to that of the annual maximum event; however, the contribution of storm surge to the SWL doubles across events. Understanding the regional variability of TWLs will lead to a better understanding of how sea level rise, changes in storminess, and possible changes in the frequency of major El Niños may impact future coastal flooding and erosion along the U.S. West Coast and elsewhere.

California, Oregon, Washington

Evidence for Regional Stream Aggradation in the Central Oregon Coast Range during the Pleistocene-Holocene Transition

Low, nearly continuous terraces of similar age are present along streams in drainage basins that range in size from Drift Creek (190 km2) to the Umpqua River (11,800 km2) in the Oregon Coast Range. Radiocarbon ages from near the bose of fluvial sediments underlying these terraces are clustered at about 9000-11,000 14C yr B.P. Beveled bedrock surfaces (straths) that underlie the fluvial sediments are 1-8 m above summer stream levels and are present along most of the nontidal reaches of the rivers that we studied. Where exposed, the bedrock straths are overlain by 2-11 m of fluvial sediment that consists of a bottom-stratum (channel) facies of sandy pebble-cobble gravel and a top-stratum (overbank) facies of sandy silt or silt. Eight radiocarbon ages from the fluvial sediments allow correlation of the lowest continuous terrace over a wide area and thus indicate that a regional aggradation episode occurred in Coast Range drainage basins during the Pleistocene-Holocene transition. The cause of such widespread aggradation is unknown but may be related to climate-induced changes in the frequency of evacuation of colluvium from hollows, which are common in all drainage basins in the region.

Quaternary Research

Climate, sea level, and people - Changing South Florida's mangrove coast

South Florida’s coast is a land of contrasts that appeals to almost everyone, whether they seek out quiet natural environments along the mangrove waterways and in the wilderness of the Everglades or vibrant international culture in Miami. Yet this paradise is threatened by a number of forces – changing climate, rising sea level, and too many people, to name a few. Florida’s past is filled with stories of dramatic change and resiliency, if we look at the geologic record. It also hints at the role of climate alone, in the absence of significant sea level change, in shaping the mangrove coast. Using our knowledge of present-day processes, such as impacts of storms on the mangroves, combined with our interpretation of the past geologic record, is the best way to anticipate future changes. The question is, have humans altered this landscape so much that the species and habitats have lost their natural resiliency, and if they have, what will happen to the people and the unique environments of south Florida?

Florida

Climate-driven waterline variability along the North American West Coast

Sandy coasts are highly dynamic environments shaped by a myriad of hydro-sedimentary processes operating across various spatio-temporal scales. From seasonal to centennial timescales, sandy beach dynamics are strongly influenced by climate variability expressed in various forms, including seasonal cycles, climate modes (e.g., El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)), and global warming. Satellite-based methods enable the observation of coastlines with unprecedented spatial and temporal coverage. However, over the past decade, as these methods have matured, coastal change studies have predominantly focused on long-term trends rather than on climate-driven cycles of shoreline change. In this study, we utilize a large dataset of monthly-sampled time series of waterline positions along the Pacific Coast of the United States and Baja California, Mexico. From these time series, we derived information on long-term trends and seasonal cycles of waterline change. Our analysis reveals clear contrasts in seasonal patterns of waterline variability across the study area, with greater amplitudes observed at higher latitudes. A shift in the dominant dynamics is evident in Southern Baja California, where shoreline variability is more influenced by intertropical dynamics and sea-level anomalies than by wave energy modulation, which dominates further north. ENSO is found to induce contrasting responses of the waterline along the study area. During El Niño events, shoreline retreat is observed in subtropical regions, while La Niña winters drive waterline retreat in higher latitudes, with southern regions either remaining stable or advancing.

Baja California, California, Oregon, Washington

Temporal accumulation of organochlorine pesticides in shorebirds wintering on the south Texas coast, 1979-80

Organochlorine pesticide residues were determined in 168 shorebirds of three species collected at approximate bimonthly intervals during the fall and winter months of 1979–80 near Port Mansfield on the south Texas coast. The study was conducted to determine if shorebirds wintering on mudflats at the outlets of agricultural drains in Texas accumulated pesticides during this period. The predominant Organochlorine residues detected in shorebirds were DDE, dieldrin, and toxaphene. Ninety-five % of the skinned carcasses analyzed contained detectable levels of DDE, 13% contained dieldrin, and 22% contained toxaphene. DDE significantly increased in all species of shorebirds from October to December, with potentially dangerous levels accumulating in some long-billed dowitchers ( Limnodromus scolopaceus ) and American avocets ( Recurvirostra americana ), but DDE residues seldom exceeded 0.5 ppm in carcasses of western sandpipers ( Calidris mauri ). After about two months on the study area, no further residue increases were documented. The high levels of DDE detected in a large proportion of the dowitchers, and to a lesser extent in the avocets, are near or within the range known to inhibit reproduction in some avian species. This study demonstrates that certain aquatic areas near agricultural lands on the south Texas coast may be potential threats to waterbirds eight years after the use of DDT was banned in the United States.

Texas

Distribution and status of submerged vegetation in estuaries of the upper Texas coast

Composition and biomass of beds of submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) in estuaries along the upper Texas coast were examined from bottom core and rake samples taken along 72 line transects during July–August 1987. Substrate composition, salinity, water depth, and water clarity were also measured at each sample station. Halodule wrightii was the dominant species of SAV meadows (69% occurrence), followed by Ruppia maritima (36%). Najas guadalupensis and Vallisneria americana were only found in the shallow (<60 cm), oligohaline (<10 ppt) waters of Trinity Bay. Halophila engelmannii and Thalassia testudinum were only found in the deeper (35–110 cm) euhaline waters (30–40 ppt) of Christmas and Matagorda Bays. H. wrightii and R. maritima occurred across the greatest depth and salinity spectra, with R. maritima more prominent in shallower (<90 cm) mixohaline waters (10–30 ppt) and H. wrightii more prominent in euhaline waters (30–40 ppt). Beds of SAV were more extensive and had greater biomass along south shorelines compared to north shorelines (P<0.045), and depth to which vegetation grew was positively correlated with water clarity (r=0.927, P<0.001). The correlations of water depth, salinity, and water clarity with variation in SAV species composition and distribution suggest that abiotic tolerances documented by previous experimental studies are major factors influencing field distributions. Comparisons with similar field data from the early 1970s corroborate the reported decrease in SAV in the Galveston Bay complex and suggest a slight increase in the Matagorda Bay complex. Decline of SAV in the Galveston Bay complex coincided with major shorefront development and a decline in numbers of wintering redhead ducks Aythya americana . Protection of shorelines of upper coast estuaries is vital to maintaining SAV resources and the dependent fauna. Where possible, barrier island preserves should be established adjacent to beds of-SAV and development restrictions implemented to reduce impacts.

Texas

Postfire hydrologic response along the central California (USA) coast: Insights for the emergency assessment of postfire debris-flow hazards

The steep, tectonically active terrain along the Central California (USA) coast is well known to produce deadly and destructive debris flows. However, the extent to which fire affects debris-flow susceptibility in this region is an open question. We documented the occurrence of postfire debris floods and flows following the landfall of a storm that delivered intense rainfall across multiple burn areas. We used this inventory to evaluate the predictive performance of the US Geological Survey M1 likelihood model, a tool that presently underlies the emergency assessment of postfire debris-flow hazards in the western USA. To test model performance, we used the threat score skill statistic and found that the rainfall thresholds estimated by the M1 model for the Central California coast performed similarly to training (Southern California) and testing (Intermountain West) data associated with the original model calibration. Model performance decreased when differentiating between “minor” and “major” postfire hydrologic response types, which weigh effects on human life and infrastructure. Our results underscore that the problem of false positives is a major challenge for developing accurate rainfall thresholds for the occurrence of postfire debris flows. As wildfire activity increases throughout the western USA, so too will the demand for the assessment of postfire debris-flow hazards. We conclude that additional collection of field-verified inventories of postfire hydrologic response will be critical to prioritize which model variables may be suitable candidates for regional calibration or replacement.

California

Stock composition of Atlantic sturgeon (Acipenser oxyrinchus oxyrinchus) encountered in marine and estuarine environments on the U.S. Atlantic Coast

Atlantic sturgeon ( Acipenser oxyrinchus oxyrinchus ) is a large, anadromous fish native to the Atlantic Coast of North America. Although this species once supported important fisheries, centuries of exploitation and habitat degradation have resulted in dramatic declines, presumed extirpation in some rivers, and ultimately listing under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA). Under the ESA, Atlantic sturgeon are listed as five separate Distinct Population Segments (DPSs), which form the basis for federal management. Despite state and federal protections Atlantic sturgeon still face significant threats to their recovery, including fisheries bycatch mortality, marine construction, dredging, dams, and vessel strikes. However, because subadult and adult Atlantic sturgeon migrate extensively across estuarine and marine environments and frequently form mixed-stock aggregations in non-natal habitats, it can be difficult to determine how these threats impact specific populations and DPSs. To better understand ontogenetic shifts in habitat use and stock-specific exposure to anthropogenic threats, we performed a mixed-stock analysis of 1704 Atlantic sturgeon encountered across the U.S. Atlantic Coast. Collections made north of Cape Cod, MA and south of Cape Hatteras, NC were dominated by individuals from regional stocks; however, we found extensive stock mixing in the mid-Atlantic region, particularly in coastal environments where individuals from all five DPSs were commonly observed. Subadults and adults that were encountered in offshore environments had moved, on average, 277 km from their natal source; however, 23% were sampled over 500 km from their natal river suggesting long-distance movements are relatively common in these age classes. Overall, our work highlights that Atlantic sturgeon populations are vulnerable to threats over vast areas and emphasizes the need for continued genetic monitoring to track recovery progress.

Atlantic Coast

Tropical or extratropical cyclones: What drives the compound flood hazard, impact, and risk for the United States Southeast Atlantic coast?

Subtropical coastlines are impacted by both tropical and extratropical cyclones. While both may lead to substantial damage to coastal communities, it is difficult to determine the contribution of tropical cyclones to coastal flooding relative to that of extratropical cyclones. We conduct a large-scale flood hazard and impact assessment across the subtropical Southeast Atlantic Coast of the United States, from Virginia to Florida, including different flood hazards. The physics-based hydrodynamic modeling skillfully reproduces coastal water levels based on a comprehensive validation of tides, almost two hundred historical storms, and an in-depth hindcast of Hurricane Florence. We show that yearly flood impacts are two times as likely to be driven by extratropical than tropical cyclones. On the other hand, tropical cyclones are 30 times more likely to affect people during rarer 100-year events than extratropical cyclones and contribute to more than half of the regional flood risk. With increasing sea levels, more areas will be flooded, regardless of whether flooding is driven by tropical or extratropical cyclones. Most of the absolute flood risk is contained in the greater Miami metropolitan area. However, several less populous counties have the highest relative risks. The results of this study provide critical information for understanding the source and frequency of compound flooding across the Southeast Atlantic Coast of the United States.

Natural Hazards

Stormwater systems as a source of marine debris: A case study from the Mediterranean coast of Israel

Drainage (or stormwater) systems are a potential source of marine debris. Approximately 67 km (33%) of the land along the Mediterranean coast of Israel is considered urban, covered by concrete and asphalt. The purpose of the present pilot study was to determine the composition of the solid waste in a drainage system and evaluate to what extent municipal sources contribute to marine debris. We sampled the waste in Netanya, a medium-size city (245,000 residents) on the central Mediterranean coast of Israel. Samples were taken from seven street stormwater receptacles prior to the first significant rain and then on the beach near a drainage outlet, a few hours after this substantial rain. In terms of composition of the debris, paper, cigarette butts, and sanitary items made up a higher proportion of the drainage system debris than those items did on the beach. In contrast, single-use items, polystyrene pieces, bottle caps, and plastic drinking bottles composed more of the debris on the beaches compared to the debris in the drainage system. Overall, we found that municipal stormwater systems contribute significant amounts of solid waste to marine debris on Israeli beaches. Preventing the waste from reaching the streets might help reduce marine debris on the beaches, especially at the beginning of the rainy season. There are multiple solutions, but all will require creativity and resources and constant maintenance. Educating the public to prevent disposal of solid waste items in the street is also important as a way to reduce terrestrial as well as marine debris.

Journal of Coastal Conservation

Latitudinal gradients in tertiary molluscan faunas of the Pacific coast

Tertiary molluscan faunas of the middle latitudes of the marginal eastern North Pacific are characterized by warm-water taxa whose descendants now live in more southerly latitudes. A series of profiles in which cumulative percentages of warm-water faunal elements are plotted against latitude show progressive northward decreases in the percentage of these elements in the faunas of Pacific coast Tertiary stages. Systematic changes in the relative position of these latitudinal gradients during the Middle and Late Tertiary are related to climatic change in the Pacific Basin. Widespread tropical marine climate in the middle latitudes of the eastern North Pacific during the Eocene is indicated by widespread faunal units characterized by high levels of taxonomic diversity. Succeeding Early Oligocene faunas are less diverse, suggesting cooler climatic conditions. Unusually low representations of warm-water genera characterize the molluscan faunas of the Acila shumardi Zone in central California (latitude 34°–37°N). The anomalously cool-water aspect of these faunas may record the occurrence of upwelling along a bold linear segment of the Pacific coast. During the Late Oligocene or the Early Miocene, they are replaced by faunas of unusually warm-water aspect resulting in positive anomalies in Miocene latitudinal faunal gradients in central California. The Miocene anomalies seem to result from the development of an irregular Neogene coastline with extensive, newly established shallow-water embayments.

Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology

Anomalously high uplift rates along the Ventura-Santa Barbara coast, California-tectonic implications

The NW—SE trending segments of the California coastline from Point Arena to Point Conception (500 km) and from Los Angeles to San Diego (200 km) generally parallel major right-lateral strike-slip fault systems. Minor vertical crustal movements associated with the dominant horizontal displacements along these fault systems are recorded in local sedimentary basins and slightly deformed marine terraces. Typical maximum uplift rates during Late Quaternary time are about 0.3 m/ka, based on U-series ages of corals and amino-acid age estimates of fossil mollusks from the lowest emergent terraces. In contrast, the E–W-trending segments of the California coastline between Point Conception and Los Angeles (200 km) parallel predominantly northward-dipping thrust and high-angle reverse faults of the western Transverse Ranges. Along this coast, marine terraces display significantly greater vertical deformation. Amino-acid age estimates of mollusks from elevated marine terraces along the Ventura—Santa Barbara coast imply anomalously high uplift rates of between 1 and 6 m/ka over the past 40 to 100 ka. The deduced rate of terrace uplift decreases from Ventura to Los Angeles, conforming with a similar trend observed by others in contemporary geodetic data. The more rapid rates of terrace uplift in the western Transverse Ranges reflect N—S crustal shortening that is probably a local accommodation of the dominant right-lateral shear strain along coastal California.

California

Concordant paleolatitudes from ophiolite sequences in the northern California Coast Ranges, U.S.A.

Paleomagnetic data have been obtained from two ophiolite sequences in the northern California Coast Ranges: from Mount Diablo in the San Francisco Bay area and from Potter Valley, north of Clear Lake. The ophiolite exposed at Mount Diablo is part of the late Middle to Late Jurassic Coast Range ophiolite, and that exposed near Potter Valley is Late Jurassic to perhaps Early Cretaceous in age and occurs within the Franciscan assemblage. Data from the sheeted-dike complex at Mount Diablo show these rocks to be strongly overprinted, probably following uplift and erosion of the ophiolite. Samples whose primary remanent magnetization seems to be recovered yield a mean paleomagnetic pole at 30.7°N, 159.5°E with α 95 = 5.6°. A comparison of this pole with the Jurassic apparent polar wander path for North America indicates that the ophiolite has rotated 45° ± 7° counterclockwise relative to the craton and has not been latitudinally displaced. The diabase and pillow basalt in Potter Valley have not been strongly overprinted and data from those rocks yield a paleomagnetic pole at 79.0°N, 61.5°E with α 95 = 6.4°. This result indicates that the ophiolite at Potter Valley has rotated approximately 29° ± 8° clockwise, and has undergone little or no latitudinal displacement. Because of the predominantly northeastward transport of oceanic plates converging with the western margin of North America since middle Mesozoic time, the absence of appreciable northward displacement of either ophiolite fragment indicates that both formed close to the continental margin.

California