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At least 163 records · Page 9Linked to original sources
USGS2012

Climate change and human health: Spatial modeling of water availability, malnutrition, and livelihoods in Mali, Africa

This study develops a novel approach for projecting climate trends in the Sahel in relation to shifting livelihood zones and health outcomes. Focusing on Mali, we explore baseline relationships between temperature, precipitation, livelihood, and malnutrition in 407 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) clusters with a total of 14,238 children, resulting in a thorough spatial analysis of coupled climate-health dynamics. Results suggest links between livelihoods and each measure of malnutrition, as well as a link between climate and stunting. A ‘front-line’ of vulnerability, related to the transition between agricultural and pastoral livelihoods, is identified as an area where mitigation efforts might be usefully targeted. Additionally, climate is projected to 2025 for the Sahel, and demographic trends are introduced to explore how the intersection of climate and demographics may shift the vulnerability ‘front-line’, potentially exposing an additional 6 million people in Mali, up to a million of them children, to heightened risk of malnutrition from climate and livelihood changes. Results indicate that, holding constant morbidity levels, approximately one quarter of a million children will suffer stunting, nearly two hundred thousand will be malnourished, and over one hundred thousand will become anemic in this expanding arid zone by 2025. Climate and health research conducted at finer spatial scales and within shorter projected time lines can identify vulnerability hot spots that are of the highest priority for adaptation interventions; such an analysis can also identify areas with similar characteristics that may be at heightened risk. Such meso-scale coupled human-environment research may facilitate appropriate policy interventions strategically located beyond today’s vulnerability front-line.

Applied Geography↗
USGS2020

Climate sensitivity to decadal land cover and land use change across the conterminous United States

Transitions to terrestrial ecosystems attributable to land cover and land use change (LCLUC) and climate change can affect the climate at local to regional scales. However, conclusions from most previous studies do not provide information about local climate effects, and little research has directly quantified how LCLUC intensity within different ecoregions relates to climate variation. In this study, we present an observation-based analysis of climate sensitivity to LCLUC based on decadal LCLUC and climate data in different ecoregions. Our results revealed that variations in land surface temperature and vapor pressure were most sensitive to LCLUC across the conterminous United States, while precipitation was less sensitive. Persistent warming effects were produced from LCLUC in Appalachian and some of the central U.S., High Plains, and northwest ecoregions, but cooling effects were evident in the many southeast, northeast and some Great Lakes and Intermountain West ecoregions. Most of the warming and a few cooling ecoregions were sensitive to LCLUC. Ecoregions with increasing vapor pressure were found across the Great Plains, Intermountain West, and West Coast ecoregions and several of these regions in the Great Plains and West Coast were sensitive to LCLUC. A combination of changes in temperature, precipitation, and vapor pressure was used to characterize climate sensitivity associated with LCLUC forcing, and five major persistent patterns were found in some ecoregions. These findings suggest that climate conditions, especially temperature and vapor pressure, in some ecoregions are sensitive to LCLUC and such change should be better incorporated into regional climate assessments.

Global and Planetary Change↗
USGS2022

Decline in biological soil crust N-fixing lichens linked to increasing summertime temperatures

Across many global drylands, biocrusts form a protective barrier on the soil surface and fill many critical roles in these harsh yet fragile environments. Previous short-term research suggests that climate change and invasive plant introduction can damage and alter biocrust communities, yet few long-term observations exist. Using a globally unique long-term record of continuous biocrust surveys from a rare never-grazed, protected grassland on the US Colorado Plateau, we found lichen species diversity and cover to be negatively correlated with increasing summer air temperatures, while moss species showed more sensitivity to variation in precipitation and invasive grass cover. These results suggest that dryland systems may be at a critical tipping point where ongoing warming could result in biological soil crust degradation.

Proceedings of the National Academies of Science (↗
USGS2004

Global land ice measurements from space (GLIMS): remote sensing and GIS investigations of the Earth's cryosphere

Concerns over greenhouse‐gas forcing and global temperatures have initiated research into understanding climate forcing and associated Earth‐system responses. A significant component is the Earth's cryosphere, as glacier‐related, feedback mechanisms govern atmospheric, hydrospheric and lithospheric response. Predicting the human and natural dimensions of climate‐induced environmental change requires global, regional and local information about ice‐mass distribution, volumes, and fluctuations. The Global Land‐Ice Measurements from Space (GLIMS) project is specifically designed to produce and augment baseline information to facilitate glacier‐change studies. This requires addressing numerous issues, including the generation of topographic information, anisotropic‐reflectance correction of satellite imagery, data fusion and spatial analysis, and GIS‐based modeling. Field and satellite investigations indicate that many small glaciers and glaciers in temperate regions are downwasting and retreating, although detailed mapping and assessment are still required to ascertain regional and global patterns of ice‐mass variations. Such remote sensing/GIS studies, coupled with field investigations, are vital for producing baseline information on glacier changes, and improving our understanding of the complex linkages between atmospheric, lithospheric, and glaciological processes.

Geocarto International↗
USGS2005

An online operational rainfall-monitoring resource for epidemic malaria early warning systems in Africa

Periodic epidemics of malaria are a major public health problem for many sub-Saharan African countries. Populations in epidemic prone areas have a poorly developed immunity to malaria and the disease remains life threatening to all age groups. The impact of epidemics could be minimized by prediction and improved prevention through timely vector control and deployment of appropriate drugs. Malaria Early Warning Systems are advocated as a means of improving the opportunity for preparedness and timely response. Rainfall is one of the major factors triggering epidemics in warm semi-arid and desert-fringe areas. Explosive epidemics often occur in these regions after excessive rains and, where these follow periods of drought and poor food security, can be especially severe. Consequently, rainfall monitoring forms one of the essential elements for the development of integrated Malaria Early Warning Systems for sub-Saharan Africa, as outlined by the World Health Organization. The Roll Back Malaria Technical Resource Network on Prevention and Control of Epidemics recommended that a simple indicator of changes in epidemic risk in regions of marginal transmission, consisting primarily of rainfall anomaly maps, could provide immediate benefit to early warning efforts. In response to these recommendations, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network produced maps that combine information about dekadal rainfall anomalies, and epidemic malaria risk, available via their Africa Data Dissemination Service. These maps were later made available in a format that is directly compatible with HealthMapper, the mapping and surveillance software developed by the WHO's Communicable Disease Surveillance and Response Department. A new monitoring interface has recently been developed at the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) that enables the user to gain a more contextual perspective of the current rainfall estimates by comparing them to previous seasons and climatological averages. These resources are available at no cost to the user and are updated on a routine basis.

Malaria Journal↗
USGS2009

Meteorological Data near Rabbit Ears Pass, Colorado, U.S.A., 1984-2008

In 1983, a snowmelt energy budget study was initiated by the U.S. Geological Survey on a small watershed near Rabbit Ears Pass, Colorado, to better understand snowmelt processes. The study included data collection from hydrological and meteorological instrumentation. Interest in long term, high-altitude meteorological sites has increased recently due to the increased awareness of global climate change. The meteorological data collected near Rabbit Ears Pass may aid researchers involved in global climate change studies. Meteorological data from 1984 to 2008 are presented.

Data Series↗
USGS2018

Summary of wildlife-related research on the coastal plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, Alaska, 2002–17

We summarize recent (2002–17) publicly available information from studies within the 1002 Area of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge as well as terrestrial and coastal ecosystems elsewhere on the Arctic Coastal Plain that are relevant to the 1002 Area. This report provides an update on earlier research summaries on caribou (Rangifer tarandus), forage quality and quantity, polar bears (Ursus maritimus), muskoxen (Ovibos moschatus), and snow geese (Chen caerulescens). We also provide information on new research related to climate, migratory birds, permafrost, coastal erosion, coastal lagoons, fish, water resources, and potential effects of industrial disturbance on wildlife. From this literature review, we noted evidence for change in the status of some wildlife and their habitats, and the lack of change for others. In the 1002 Area, muskox numbers have decreased and the Porcupine Caribou Herd has exhibited variation in use of the area during the calving season. Polar bears are now more common on shore in summer and fall because of declines in sea ice in the Beaufort Sea. In a study spanning 25 years, there were no significant changes in vegetation quality and quantity, soil conditions, or permafrost thaw in the coastal plain of the 1002 Area. Based on studies from the central Arctic Coastal Plain, there are persistent and emerging uncertainties about the long-term effects of energy development for caribou. In contrast, recent studies that examined direct and indirect effects of industrial activities and infrastructure on birds in the central Arctic Coastal Plain found little effect for the species and disturbances examined, except for the possibility of increased predator activity near human developments.

Alaska↗
USGS1999

GPS and GIS-Based Data Collection and Image Mapping in the Antarctic Peninsula

High-resolution satellite images combined with the rapidly evolving global positioning system (GPS) and geographic information system (GIS) technology may offer a quick and effective way to gather information in Antarctica. GPS- and GIS-based data collection systems are used in this project to determine their applicability for gathering ground truthing data in the Antarctic Peninsula. These baseline data will be used in a later study to examine changes in penguin habitats resulting in part from regional climate warming. The research application in this study yields important information on the usefulness and limits of data capture and high-resolution images for mapping in the Antarctic Peninsula.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2013

Salmonids, stream temperatures, and solar loading--modeling the shade provided to the Klamath River by vegetation and geomorphology

The U.S. Geological Survey is studying approaches to characterize the thermal regulation of water and the dynamics of cold water refugia. High temperatures have physiological impacts on anadromous fish species. Factors affecting the presence, variability, and quality of thermal refugia are known, such as riverine and watershed processes, hyporheic flows, deep pools and bathymetric factors, thermal stratification of reservoirs, and other broader climatic considerations. This research develops a conceptual model and methodological techniques to quantify the change in solar insolation load to the Klamath River caused by riparian and floodplain vegetation, the morphology of the river, and the orientation and topographic characteristics of its watersheds. Using multiple scales of input data from digital elevation models and airborne light detection and ranging (LiDAR) derivatives, different analysis methods yielded three different model results. These models are correlated with thermal infrared imagery for ground-truth information at the focal confluence with the Scott River. Results from nonparametric correlation tests, geostatistical cross-covariograms, and cross-correlograms indicate that statistical relationships between the insolation models and the thermal infrared imagery exist and are significant. Furthermore, the use of geostatistics provides insights to the spatial structure of the relationships that would not be apparent otherwise. To incorporate a more complete representation of the temperature dynamics in the river system, other variables including the factors mentioned above, and their influence on solar loading, are discussed. With similar datasets, these methods could be applied to any river in the United States—especially those listed as temperature impaired under Section 303(d) of the Clean Water Act—or international riverine systems. Considering the importance of thermal refugia for aquatic species, these methods can help investigate opportunities for riparian restoration, identify problematic reaches unlikely to provide good habitat, and simulate changes to solar loading estimates from alternative landscape configurations.

California↗
USGS2022

Editorial: Plant phenology shifts and their ecological and climatic consequences

Climate change is causing plant phenology to shift, with consequences for ecosystems and the Earth’s climate. Over the last decades, the timing of many important phenological events has advanced in spring, such as leaf emergence and flowering, or been delayed in fall, such as leaf coloration and leaf fall. The consequences of such phenological shifts are still largely unknown, but are hypothesized to have cascading effects on ecosystems, carbon and water cycles, and Earths’ climate. With this research topic, we aimed to synthesize and inspire innovative research in plant phenology to address research questions and challenges on the consequences of phenological shifts on ecosystem function and local hydrology. The articles presented here improve our understanding of the physiological mechanisms responsible for the current phenological changes in spring and fall and provide insight into some of the consequences of these changes on hydrological cycles and ecosystem functioning.

Frontiers in Plant Science↗
USGS1999

General-circulation-model simulations of future snowpack in the western United States

April 1 snowpack accumulations measured at 311 snow courses in the western United States (U.S.) are grouped using a correlation-based cluster analysis. A conceptual snow accumulation and melt model and monthly temperature and precipitation for each cluster are used to estimate cluster-average April 1 snowpack. The conceptual snow model is subsequently used to estimate future snowpack by using changes in monthly temperature and precipitation simulated by the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis (CCC) and the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (HADLEY) general circulation models (GCMs). Results for the CCC model indicate that although winter precipitation is estimated to increase in the future, increases in temperatures will result in large decreases in April 1 snowpack for the entire western US. Results for the HADLEY model also indicate large decreases in April 1 snowpack for most of the western US, but the decreases are not as severe as those estimated using the CCC simulations. Although snowpack conditions are estimated to decrease for most areas of the western US, both GCMs estimate a general increase in winter precipitation toward the latter half of the next century. Thus, water quantity may be increased in the western US; however, the timing of runoff will be altered because precipitation will more frequently occur as rain rather than as snow.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2022

Impacts of ocean-atmosphere teleconnection patterns on the south-central United States

Recent research has linked the climate variability associated with ocean-atmosphere teleconnections to impacts rippling throughout environmental, economic, and social systems. This research reviews recent literature through 2021 in which we identify linkages among the major modes of climate variability, in the form of ocean-atmosphere teleconnections, and the impacts to temperature and precipitation of the South-Central United States (SCUSA), consisting of Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas. The SCUSA is an important areal focus for this analysis because it straddles the ecotone between humid and arid climates in the United States and has a growing population, diverse ecosystems, robust agricultural and other economic sectors including the potential for substantial wind and solar energy generation. Whereas a need exists to understand atmospheric variability due to the cascading impacts through ecological and social systems, our understanding is complicated by the positioning of the SCUSA between subtropical and extratropical circulation features and the influence of the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, and the adjacent Gulf of Mexico. The Southern Oscillation (SO), Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the related Arctic Oscillation (AO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation/Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMO/AMV), and Pacific Decadal Oscillation/Pacific Decadal Variability (PDO/PDV) have been shown to be important modulators of temperature and precipitation variables at the monthly, seasonal, and interannual scales, and the intraseasonal Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) in the SCUSA. By reviewing these teleconnection impacts in the region alongside updated seasonal correlation maps, this research provides more accessible and comparable results for interdisciplinary use on climate impacts beyond the atmospheric-environmental sciences.

Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas↗
USGS2012

Effects of land cover and regional climate variations on long-term spatiotemporal changes in sagebrush ecosystems

This research investigated the effects of climate and land cover change on variation in sagebrush ecosystems. We combined information of multi-year sagebrush distribution derived from multitemporal remote sensing imagery and climate data to study the variation patterns of sagebrush ecosystems under different potential disturbances. We found that less than 40% of sagebrush ecosystem changes involved abrupt changes directly caused by landscape transformations and over 60% of the variations involved gradual changes directly related to climatic perturbations. The primary increases in bare ground and declines in sagebrush vegetation abundance were significantly correlated with the 1996-2006 decreasing trend in annual precipitation.

GIScience and Remote Sensing↗
USGS2020

North Atlantic right whale (Eubalaena glacialis) scenario planning summary report

Scenario planning provides a structured framework that can be used in strategic planning to help manage risk and prioritize actions (Schwartz 1996; Peterson et al. 2003). By providing a mechanism to communicate about complex situations, scenario planning encourages “out-of-the-box” thinking to help groups assess the impacts of plausible future scenarios on a target or resource. The outcomes from scenario planning can be used to improve management decisions, highlight data gaps, and/or identify future science priorities (Star et al. 2015; Borggaard et al. 2019). The application of scenario planning by resource management organizations (e.g., Borggaard et al. 2019; Runyon et al. 2020; Star et al. 2015) and the urgency surrounding the recovery of the critically endangered North Atlantic right whale (Eubalaena glacialis), led to a 2018 NOAA Fisheries scenario planning initiative for the species. In addition to complementing the many management and conservation efforts already underway, this initiative was designed to address the uncertainties around future anthropogenic and environmental changes and how these uncertainties may impact species recovery. We used a scenario planning framework to explore plausible future conditions for North Atlantic right whales and to develop possible options to address those conditions and improve recovery. Specific objectives were to: 1) better understand the challenges of right whale management in a changing climate; 2) identify potential research activities and recovery needs across the species’ range; 3) increase coordination and collaboration related to recovery efforts; and 4) explore how scenario planning can be used to support decisions. Using projected changes in ocean conditions coupled with anthropogenic stressors, we built four plausible future scenarios for right whales. These scenarios helped identify priority research and management actions that NOAA Fisheries and our partners can undertake to improve right whale recovery. We identified priority actions related to science, management, and partnerships including, but not limited to, 1) research on shifting spatial and temporal distributions of right whales and prey in a changing climate; 2) development of technology to further reduce impacts from human activities; 3) continuation of ongoing management efforts related to vessel traffic and fishing; and 4) continued maintenance of existing and development of new partnerships (e.g., industry engagement in problem solving). This scenario planning exercise helped prioritize North Atlantic right whale management and science needs in light of changing ocean conditions and anthropogenic impacts. It can also serve as a reference for how NOAA Fisheries and its partners can better prepare for multiple plausible futures while complementing other on-going initiatives. Priorities identified here can be considered in conjunction with implementation and monitoring actions such as with the Atlantic Large Whale Take Reduction Team (ALWTRT) and/or regional Right Whale U.S. Implementation Teams. The framework can also be repeated and improved upon as additional information becomes available to support future exercises.

Technical Memorandum↗
USGS2016

Developing integrated methods to address complex resource and environmental issues

Introduction This circular provides an overview of selected activities that were conducted within the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Integrated Methods Development Project, an interdisciplinary project designed to develop new tools and conduct innovative research requiring integration of geologic, geophysical, geochemical, and remote-sensing expertise. The project was supported by the USGS Mineral Resources Program, and its products and acquired capabilities have broad applications to missions throughout the USGS and beyond. In addressing challenges associated with understanding the location, quantity, and quality of mineral resources, and in investigating the potential environmental consequences of resource development, a number of field and laboratory capabilities and interpretative methodologies evolved from the project that have applications to traditional resource studies as well as to studies related to ecosystem health, human health, disaster and hazard assessment, and planetary science. New or improved tools and research findings developed within the project have been applied to other projects and activities. Specifically, geophysical equipment and techniques have been applied to a variety of traditional and nontraditional mineral- and energy-resource studies, military applications, environmental investigations, and applied research activities that involve climate change, mapping techniques, and monitoring capabilities. Diverse applied geochemistry activities provide a process-level understanding of the mobility, chemical speciation, and bioavailability of elements, particularly metals and metalloids, in a variety of environmental settings. Imaging spectroscopy capabilities maintained and developed within the project have been applied to traditional resource studies as well as to studies related to ecosystem health, human health, disaster assessment, and planetary science. Brief descriptions of capabilities and laboratory facilities and summaries of some applications of project products and research findings are included in this circular. The work helped support the USGS mission to “provide reliable scientific information to describe and understand the Earth; minimize loss of life and property from natural disasters; manage water, biological, energy, and mineral resources; and enhance and protect our quality of life.” Activities within the project include the following: Spanned scales from microscopic to planetary; Demonstrated broad applications across disciplines; Included life-cycle studies of mineral resources; Incorporated specialized areas of expertise in applied geochemistry including mineralogy, hydrogeology, analytical chemistry, aqueous geochemistry, biogeochemistry, microbiology, aquatic toxicology, and public health; and Incorporated specialized areas of expertise in geophysics including magnetics, gravity, radiometrics, electromagnetics, seismic, ground-penetrating radar, borehole radar, and imaging spectroscopy. This circular consists of eight sections that contain summaries of various activities under the project. The eight sections are listed below: Laboratory Facilities and Capabilities, which includes brief descriptions of the various types of laboratories and capabilities used for the project; Method and Software Development, which includes summaries of remote-sensing, geophysical, and mineralogical methods developed or enhanced by the project; Instrument Development, which includes descriptions of geophysical instruments developed under the project; Minerals, Energy, and Climate, which includes summaries of research that applies to mineral or energy resources, environmental processes and monitoring, and carbon sequestration by earth materials; Element Cycling, Toxicity, and Health, which includes summaries of several process-oriented geochemical and biogeochemical studies and health-related research activities; Hydrogeology and Water Quality, which includes descriptions of innovative geophysical, remote-sensing, and geochemical research pertaining to hydrogeology and water-quality applications; Hazards and Disaster Assessment, which includes summaries of research and method development that were applied to natural hazards, human-caused hazards, and disaster assessments; and Databases and Framework Studies, which includes descriptions of fundamental applications of geophysical studies and of the importance of archived data.

Circular↗
USGS2019

Freshwater availability in Guam with projected changes in climate

Guam receives 85 to 116 inches of rain a year, two-thirds of which has historically fallen during the wet season. On average, three tropical storms and one typhoon pass within 80 nautical miles of Guam each year, generally during the rainy season. Both drought and flooding can impact freshwater supply and the associated infrastructure. Department of Defense (DoD) installations and non-military populations on Guam share freshwater resources, which will be impacted by changes in demographics, freshwater demand, and climate. This DoD Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP) funded study evaluated potential climate impacts on freshwater supplies in Guam, and identified methods of increasing the water distribution system’s resilience.

Cooperator Report↗
USGS2016

Foreword: The dynamics of change in Alaska’s boreal forests: Resilience and vulnerability in response to climate warming

Long-term research by the Bonanza Creek (BNZ) Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) program has documented natural patterns of interannual and successional variability of the boreal forest in interior Alaska against which we can detect changes in system behavior. Between 2004 and 2010 the BNZ LTER program focused on understanding the dynamics of change through studying the resilience and vulnerability of Alaska's boreal forest in response to climate warming. The overarching question in this endeavor has been “How are boreal ecosystems responding, both gradually and abruptly, to climate warming, and what new landscape patterns are emerging?”

Alaska↗
USGS2007

Climate variation at Flagstaff, Arizona - 1950 to 2007

Much scientific research demonstrates the existence of recent climate variation, particularly global warming. Climate prediction models forecast that climate will change; it will become warmer, droughts will increase in number and severity, and extreme climate events will recur often—desiccating aridity, extremely wet, unusually warm, or even frigid at times. However, the global models apply to average conditions in large grids approximately 150 miles on an edge (Thorpe, 2005), and how or whether specific areas within a grid are affected is unclear. Flagstaff's climate is mentioned in the context of global change, but information is lacking on the amount and trend of changes in precipitation, snowfall, and temperature. The purpose of this report is to understand what may be happening to Flagstaff's climate by reviewing local climate history. Flagstaff is in north-central Arizona south of San Francisco Mountain, which reaches 12,633 feet, the highest in Arizona (fig. 1). At 6,900 feet, surrounded by ponderosa pine forest, Flagstaff enjoys a four-season climate; winter-daytime temperatures are cool, averaging 45 degrees (Fahrenheit). Summer-daytime temperatures are comfortable, averaging 80 degrees, which is pleasant compared with nearby low-elevation deserts. Flagstaff's precipitation averages 22-inches per year with a range of 9 to 39 inches. Snowfall occurs each season, averaging 97 inches annually. This report, written for the non-technical reader, interprets climate variation at Flagstaff as observed at the National Weather Service (NWS) station at Pulliam Field (or Airport), a first-order weather station staffed by meteorologists (Staudenmaier and others, 2007). The station is on a flat-topped ridge surrounded by forest 5-miles south of Flagstaff at an elevation of 7,003 feet. Data used in this analysis are daily measurements of precipitation (including snowfall) and temperature (maximum and minimum) covering the period from 1950, when the station began operation, through spring 2007. Conversations with Byron Peterson and Michael Staudenmaier of the NWS helped us understand the difficulties of collecting consistent weather data, operation of the station, and Flagstaff's climate. Weather is the daily or even instantaneous state of temperature and precipitation. Climate is the average or accumulation of these parameters over longer time scales such as a week, month, or year. Seasonal (winter, spring, summer, and fall) and annual averages of temperature and accumulated precipitation describe the temporal variation of Flagstaff's climate, which is shown graphically with time series (figs. 2, 4, 6, 8-15). These plots show precipitation or temperature on the ordinate plotted against time on the abscissa, which is a year for annually repeating data or the year of a particular season. The plots reveal changing patterns of precipitation and temperature related to droughts, wet episodes, and rising temperatures.

Arizona↗