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At least 163 records · Page 9Linked to original sources

Earth system sensitivity inferred from Pliocene modelling and data

Quantifying the equilibrium response of global temperatures to an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations is one of the cornerstones of climate research. Components of the Earths climate system that vary over long timescales, such as ice sheets and vegetation, could have an important effect on this temperature sensitivity, but have often been neglected. Here we use a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model to simulate the climate of the mid-Pliocene warm period (about three million years ago), and analyse the forcings and feedbacks that contributed to the relatively warm temperatures. Furthermore, we compare our simulation with proxy records of mid-Pliocene sea surface temperature. Taking these lines of evidence together, we estimate that the response of the Earth system to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations is 30-50% greater than the response based on those fast-adjusting components of the climate system that are used traditionally to estimate climate sensitivity. We conclude that targets for the long-term stabilization of atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations aimed at preventing a dangerous human interference with the climate system should take into account this higher sensitivity of the Earth system. ?? 2010 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.

Nature Geoscience

AVO-G2S: A modified, open-source Ground-to-Space atmospheric specification for infrasound modeling

To facilitate infrasound propagation studies, we present AVO-G2S, an open-source, Ground-to-Space model which provides temperature and wind specifications from the surface to an altitude of 225 km. This model provides a means of smoothly characterizing atmospheric conditions using multiple numerical weather prediction forecast and reanalysis products, along with upper-atmospheric empirical models. Regional atmospheric reconstructions only require a limited domain and can utilize high-resolution numerical weather prediction forecasts typically provided on a projected grid. The use of a projected grid allows for faster spectral transform libraries to be employed. The AVO-G2S software can also provide global reconstructions that rely on global numerical weather prediction products and spherical harmonic decompositions. AVO-G2S is inspired by a global Ground-to-Space model developed by the Naval Research Laboratory, and relies on their empirical descriptions of upper-atmospheric conditions. Alaska Volcano Observatory has implemented this model for near-real-time infrasound monitoring of volcanic eruptions and historical research projects.

Computers & Geosciences

Overview of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission collaborative research program to assess tsunami hazard for nuclear power plants on the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts

In response to the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (US NRC) initiated a long-term research program to improve understanding of tsunami hazard levels for nuclear facilities in the United States. For this effort, the US NRC organized a collaborative research program with the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) with a goal of assessing tsunami hazard on the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts of the United States. Necessarily, the US NRC research program includes both seismic- and landslide-based tsunamigenic sources in both the near and the far fields. The inclusion of tsunamigenic landslides, an important category of sources that impact tsunami hazard levels for the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts is a key difference between this program and most other tsunami hazard assessment programs. The initial phase of this work consisted of collection, interpretation, and analysis of available offshore data, with significant effort focused on characterizing offshore near-field landslides and analyzing their tsunamigenic potential and properties. In the next phase of research, additional field investigations will be conducted in key locations of interest and additional analysis will be undertaken. Simultaneously, the MOST tsunami generation and propagation model used by NOAA will first be enhanced to include landslide-based initiation mechanisms and then will be used to investigate the impact of the tsunamigenic sources identified and characterized by the USGS. The potential for probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment will also be explore in the final phases of the program.

Conference Paper

Increasing resiliency to natural hazards - A strategic plan for the Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project in Southern California

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is initiating a new project designed to improve resiliency to natural hazards in southern California through the application of science to community decision making and emergency response. The Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project will assist the region’s communities to reduce their risk from natural hazards by directing new and existing research towards the community’s needs, improving monitoring technology, producing innovative products, and improving dissemination of the results. The natural hazards to be investigated in this project include coastal erosion, earthquakes, floods, landslides, tsunamis, and wildfires. Americans are more at risk from natural hazards now than at any other time in our Nation’s history. Southern California, in particular, has one of the Nation’s highest potentials for extreme catastrophic losses due to natural hazards, with estimates of expected losses exceeding $3 billion per year. These losses can only be reduced through the decisions of the southern California community itself. To be effective, these decisions must be guided by the best information about hazards, risk, and the cost-effectiveness of mitigation technologies. The USGS will work with collaborators to set the direction of the research and to create multi-hazard risk frameworks where communities can apply the results of scientific research to their decision-making processes. Partners include state, county, city, and public-lands government agencies, public and private utilities, companies with a significant impact and presence in southern California, academic researchers, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and local emergency response agencies. Prior to the writing of this strategic plan document, three strategic planning workshops were held in February and March 2006 at the USGS office in Pasadena to explore potential relationships. The goal of these planning sessions was to determine the external organizations’ needs for mitigation efforts before potential natural hazard events, and response efforts during and after the event. On the basis of input from workshop participants, four priority areas were identified for future research to address. They are (1) helping decision makers design planning scenarios, (2) improving upon the mapping of multiple hazards in urban areas, (3) providing real-time information from monitoring networks, and (4) integrating information in a risk and decision-making analysis. Towards this end, short-term and out-year goals have been outlined with the priorities in mind. First-year goals are (1) to engage the user community to establish the structures and processes for communications and interactions, (2) to develop a program to create scenarios of anticipated disasters, beginning in the first year with a scenario of a southern San Andreas earthquake that triggers secondary hazards, (3) to compile existing datasets of geospatial data, and (4) to target research efforts to support more complete and robust products in future years. Both the first-year and out-year goals have been formulated around a working-group structure that builds on existing research strengths within the USGS. The project is intended to demonstrate how developments in methodology and products can lead to improvement in our management of natural hazards in an urban environment for application across the Nation.

Open-File Report

Cost implications of uncertainty in CO 2 storage resource estimates: A review

Carbon capture from stationary sources and geologic storage of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is an important option to include in strategies to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. However, the potential costs of commercial-scale CO 2 storage are not well constrained, stemming from the inherent uncertainty in storage resource estimates coupled with a lack of detailed estimates of the infrastructure needed to access those resources. Storage resource estimates are highly dependent on storage efficiency values or storage coefficients, which are calculated based on ranges of uncertain geological and physical reservoir parameters. If dynamic factors (such as variability in storage efficiencies, pressure interference, and acceptable injection rates over time), reservoir pressure limitations, boundaries on migration of CO 2 , consideration of closed or semi-closed saline reservoir systems, and other possible constraints on the technically accessible CO 2 storage resource (TASR) are accounted for, it is likely that only a fraction of the TASR could be available without incurring significant additional costs. Although storage resource estimates typically assume that any issues with pressure buildup due to CO 2 injection will be mitigated by reservoir pressure management, estimates of the costs of CO 2 storage generally do not include the costs of active pressure management. Production of saline waters (brines) could be essential to increasing the dynamic storage capacity of most reservoirs, but including the costs of this critical method of reservoir pressure management could increase current estimates of the costs of CO 2 storage by two times, or more. Even without considering the implications for reservoir pressure management, geologic uncertainty can significantly impact CO 2 storage capacities and costs, and contribute to uncertainty in carbon capture and storage (CCS) systems. Given the current state of available information and the scarcity of (data from) long-term commercial-scale CO 2 storage projects, decision makers may experience considerable difficulty in ascertaining the realistic potential, the likely costs, and the most beneficial pattern of deployment of CCS as an option to reduce CO 2 concentrations in the atmosphere.

Natural Resources Research

Energy development and production in the Great Plains: Implications and restoration opportunities

Energy is an integral part of society. The major US energy sources of fossil fuels (coal, oil, natural gas); biofuels (ethanol); and wind are concentrated in grassland ecosystems of the Great Plains. As energy demand continues to increase, mounting pressures will be placed on North American grassland systems. In this review, we present the ecological effects of energy development and production on grassland systems. We then identify opportunities to mitigate these effects during the planning, construction, and production phases by using informed methodology and improved technology. Primary effects during energy development include small- and large-scale soil disturbance and vegetation removal as small patches of grasslands are used to host oil or gas wells, wind turbine pads, associated roadways, and pipelines or through the conversion of large grassland areas to biofuel croplands. Direct habitat loss or habitat fragmentation can affect wildlife directly through increased mortality or indirectly through reduction in habitat quantity and quality. During energy production, air and water quality can be affected through regular emissions or unplanned spills. Energy development can also affect the economy and health of local communities. During planning, energy development and production effects can be reduced by carefully considering effects on grasslands during siting and even by selecting different energy source types. During construction, effects on soil and plant systems can be minimized by eliminating weed populations before disturbance, salvaging and stockpiling topsoil for future revegetation, and harvesting native local seed for postsite restoration. During energy production operations, noise and road traffic reduction plans and atmospheric monitoring will enable more informed mitigation measures. Continued research on energy development effects and mitigation measures is necessary to establish best management practices beneficial to grassland health while providing needed energy for the United States.

Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minneso

Global climate change: USFWS coastal research

Scenarios of global climate change are still ambiguous; however, increasing sea level and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentrations seem certain, although rates of change are still being debated. Predictions for other aspects of climate change, such as temperature, tropical storm frequency and intensity, and precipitation, are still in debate, and all predictions for local (e.g., watershed) or regional effects are far from being useful for site-specific planning. While recognizing the weakness of current climate models, especially at regional and local scales, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, in fulfilling its mandate for wildlife habitat protection and maintenance, advocates understanding the processes involved and forecasting potential changes. Because coastal wetlands constitute critical habitat for a significant portion of fish and wildlife under the Service's conservation charge, the Service's National Wetlands Research Center will study some of the most vulnerable coastal habitats of the Southern United States, namely coastal emergent marshes, submerged aquatic vegetation, forested wetlands, and communities of benthic invertebrates. Studies will include developing landscape-level data bases on National Wildlife Refuge wetland complexes along the coasts of the south Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. Comparisons will be made between accreting and subsiding coastal marshes. Greenhouse and mesocosm experiments will be conducted on key species from each habitat type to determine their responses to elevated inorganic carbon, salinity, temperature, and ultraviolet radiation.

Conference Paper

Water, energy, and biogeochemical budgets investigation at Panola Mountain research watershed, Stockbridge, Georgia; A research plan

The Panola Mountain Research Watershed (PMRW), located in the Panola Mountain State Conservation Park near Stockbridge, Georgia has been selected as a core research watershed under the Water, Energy and Biogeochemical Budgets (WEBB) research initiative of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Global Climate Change Program. This research plan describes ongoing and planned research activities at PMRW from 1984 to 1994. Since 1984, PMRW has been studied as a geochemical process research site under the U.S. Acid Precipitation Thrust Program. Research conducted under this Thrust Program focused on the estimation of dry atmospheric deposition, short-term temporal variability of streamwater chemistry, sulfate adsorption characteristics of the soils, groundwater chemistry, throughfall chemistry, and streamwater quality. The Acid Precipitation Thrust Program continues (1993) to support data collection and a water-quality laboratory. Proposed research to be supported by the WEBB program is organized in 3 interrelated categories: streamflow generation and water-quality evolution, weathering and geochemical evolution, and regulation of soil-water chemistry. Proposed research on streamflow generation and water-quality evolution will focus on subsurface water movement, its influence in streamflow generation, and the associated chemical changes of the water that take place along its flowpath. Proposed research on weathering and geochemical evolution will identify the sources of cations observed in the streamwater at Panola Mountain and quantify the changes in cation source during storms. Proposed research on regulation of soil-water chemistry will focus on the poorly understood processes that regulate soil-water and groundwater chemistry. (USGS)

Georgia

Vibracore, radiocarbon, microfossil, and grain-size data from Apalachicola Bay, Florida

In 2007, the U.S. Geological Survey collected 24 vibracores within Apalachicola Bay, Florida. The vibracores were collected by using a Rossfelder electric percussive (P-3) vibracore system during a cruise on the Research Vessel (R/V) G.K. Gilbert. Selection of the core sites was based on a geophysical survey that was conducted during 2005 and 2006 in collaboration with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Coastal Services Center (CSC) and the Apalachicola Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve. This report contains the vibracore data logs, photographs, and core-derived data including grain-size analyses, radiocarbon ages, microfossil counts, and sedimentological interpretations. The long-term goal of this study is to provide maps, data, and assistance to the Apalachicola Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve in their effort to monitor and understand the geology and ecology of Apalachicola Bay Estuary. These data will inform coastal managers charged with the responsibility for resource preservation.

Florida

Ground-water age and atmospheric tracers: Simulation studies and analysis of field data from the Mirror Lake site, New Hampshire

The use of environmental tracers in characterization of ground-water systems is investigated through mathematical modeling of ground-water age and atmospheric tracer transport, and by a field study at the Mirror Lake site, New Hampshire. Theory is presented for modeling ground-water age using the advective-dispersive transport equation. The transport equation includes a zero-order source of unit strength, corresponding to the rate of aging, and can accommodate matrix diffusion and other exchange processes. The effect of temperature fluctuations and layered soils on transport of atmospheric gases to the water table is investigated using a one-dimensional numerical model of chlorofluorocarbon (CFC-11) transport. The nonlinear relation between temperature and Henry's Law coefficient (reflecting air/water phase partitioning) can cause the apparent recharge temperature to be elevated above the annual mean temperature where the water table is shallow. In addition, fine-grained soils can isolate the air phase in the unsaturated zone from the atmosphere. At the USGS' Mirror Lake, New Hampshire fractured-rock research site CFC concentrations near the water table are depleted where dissolved oxygen is low. CFC-11 and CFC-113 are completely absent under anaerobic conditions, while CFC-12 is as low as one-third of modern concentrations. Anaerobic biodegradation apparently consumes CFC's near the water table at this site. One area of active degradation appears to be associated with streamflow loss to ground water. Soil gas concentrations are generally close to atmospheric levels, although some spatial correlation is observed between depleted concentrations of CFC-11 and CFC-113 in soil gas and water-table samples. Results of unsaturated-zone monitoring indicate that recharge occurs throughout the year in the watershed, even during summer evapotranspiration periods, and that seasonal temperature fluctuations occur as much as 5 meters below land surface. Application of ground-water age and CFC-11 transport models to the large-scale ground-water system at Mirror Lake illustrates the similarities between age and chemical transport. Generally, bedrock porosities required to match observed apparent ages from CFC concentrations are high relative to porosities measured on cores. Although matrix diffusion has no effect on steady-state age, it can significantly reduce CFC concentrations in fractured rock in which the effective porosity is low.

New Hampshire

Marine mineral resources of Pacific Islands— A review of the Exclusive Economic Zones of islands of U.S. affiliation, excluding the State of Hawaii

The United States Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) was established in 1983 and comprises all marine areas within 200 nautical miles (370 kilometers) of the nearest U.S. land. This vast area of 3.38 million square nautical miles (11.6 million square kilometers) is about 20 percent greater than the entire land area of the United States. The resource potential of the vast mineral deposits that occur within the U.S. EEZ is unknown, despite field studies that have taken place during the past 25 years. Since about 1975, information on marine mineral deposits has been obtained by numerous research cruises to the Pacific Ocean by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), equivalent government agencies in Germany, Canada, France, Russia, Japan, China, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand, and by academic researchers from all of these nations. Although most of the cruises by other nations explored areas outside the U.S. EEZ, information gained from those studies can aid in the evaluation of the mineral potential in the U.S. EEZ. However, the global effort remains inadequate to allow for the quantitative evaluation of mineral resources contained within the EEZ of nations or within international regions of the oceans.

Circular

Quality assurance report - Loch Vale watershed, 1999-2002

The National Park Service initiated the Loch Vale Watershed (LVWS) project in 1980 with funding from the Aquatic Effects Research Program of the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program. Long-term ecological research and monitoring address watershed-scale ecosystem processes, particularly as they respond to atmospheric deposition and climate variability. Monitoring of meteorological, hydrologic, precipitation chemistry, and surface water quality parameters enable us to use long-term trends to distinguish natural from human-caused disturbances. Research into snow distribution, hydrologic flowpaths, vegetation responses to N deposition, isotopic transformations of N by forest and soil processes, trace metals, and aquatic ecological responses to disturbance enable us to understand processes that influence high elevation ecosystems.

Colorado

Eastern Gulf of Alaska seismicity: Annual report to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration for April 1, 1980, through March 31, 1981

The objective of this research is to collect and analyze data on earthquake activity in the northeast Gulf of Alaska (NEGOA) and adjacent onshore areas in order to develop a better regional seismotectonic model and more accurately assess the earthquake potential. This information is critical to the establishment of criteria for the safe development of oil and gas. Large (M s > 7) historical earthquakes have occurred in and around the NEGOA, and recent studies suggest that the NEGOA is a likely site for a magnitude 8 or larger earthquake to occur within the next two or three decades. A great earthquake (Ms>8) associated with low-angle oblique underthrusting of the sea floor beneath continental shelf could be accompanied by strong ground shaking throughout much of the eastern Gulf of Alaska, possibly from Cross Sound to Kayak Island (Page, 1975), and could trigger tsunamis, seiches, and submarine slumping, any of which could be hazardous to offshore and coastal structures (Meyers, 1976).

Alaska

Variability of hydrologic regimes and morphology in constructed open-ditch channels

Open-ditch ecosystems are potential transporters of considerable loads of nutrients, sediment, pathogens and pesticides from direct inflow from agricultural land to small streams and larger rivers. Our objective was to compare hydrology and channel morphology between two experimental open-ditch channels. An open-ditch research facility incorporating a paired design was constructed during 2002 near Lamberton, MN. A200-m reach of existing drainage channel was converted into a system of four parallel channels. The facility was equipped with water level control devices and instrumentation for flow monitoring and water sample collection on upstream and downstream ends of the system. Hydrographs from simulated flow during year one indicated that paired open-ditch channels responded similarly to changes in inflow. Variability in hydrologic response between open-ditches was attributed to differences in open-ditch channel bottom elevation and vegetation density. No chemical, biological, or atmospheric measurements were made during 2003. Potential future benefits of this research include improved biological diversity and integrity of open-ditch ecosystems, reduce flood peaks and increased flow during critical low-flow periods, improved and more efficient nitrogen retention within the open-ditch ecosystem, and decreased maintenance cost associated with reduced frequency of open-ditch maintenance.

Conference Paper

Sensitivity of Pliocene ice sheets to orbital forcing

The stability of the Earth's major ice sheets is a critical uncertainty in predictions of future climate and sea level change. One method of investigating the behaviour of the Greenland and the Antarctic ice sheets in a warmer-than-modern climate is to look back at past warm periods of Earth history, for example the Pliocene. This paper presents climate and ice sheet modelling results for the mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP; 3.3 to 3.0 million years ago), which has been identified as a key interval for understanding warmer-than-modern climates (Jansen et al., 2007). Using boundary conditions supplied by the United States Geological Survey PRISM Group (Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping), the Hadley Centre coupled ocean–atmosphere climate model (HadCM3) and the British Antarctic Survey Ice Sheet Model (BASISM), we show large reductions in the Greenland and East Antarctic Ice Sheets (GrIS and EAIS) compared to modern in standard mPWP experiments. We also present the first results illustrating the variability of the ice sheets due to realistic orbital forcing during the mid-Pliocene. While GrIS volumes are lower than modern under even the most extreme (cold) mid-Pliocene orbit (losing at least 35% of its ice mass), the EAIS can both grow and shrink, losing up to 20% or gaining up to 10% of its present-day volume. The changes in ice sheet volume incurred by altering orbital forcing alone means that global sea level can vary by more than 25 m during the mid-Pliocene. However, we have also shown that the response of the ice sheets to mPWP orbital hemispheric forcing can be in anti-phase, whereby the greatest reductions in EAIS volume are concurrent with the smallest reductions of the GrIS. If this anti-phase relationship is in operation throughout the mPWP, then the total eustatic sea level response would be dampened compared to the ice sheet fluctuations that are theoretically possible. This suggests that maximum eustatic sea level rise does not correspond to orbital maxima, but occurs at times where the anti-phasing of Northern and Southern Hemisphere ice sheet retreat is minimised.

Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology

PFAS sampling activities in the U.S. Geological Survey national networks

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), frequently called “forever chemicals,” are used for a wide variety of industrial purposes and are often found in common household and industrial items such as firefighting foams, non-stick cookware, and water-resistant materials. The contamination of water, air, and soil by PFAS is a national and global issue due to their widespread occurrence in multiple applications and resistance to biodegradation and other traditional treatment processes. Research indicates that many PFAS can be emitted to the atmosphere and transported and deposited long distances from the source. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Water Resources Mission Area received funding to implement a national-scale sampling effort to assess PFAS occurrence. To follow agency directives, the National Water Quality Network (NWQN) added PFAS sample monitoring for both surface water and groundwater, and also added PFAS monitoring to selected sites in the National Atmospheric Deposition Program (NADP).

General Information Product

Apalachicola Bay interpreted seismic horizons and updated IRIS chirp seismic-reflection data

Apalachicola Bay and St. George Sound contain the largest oyster fishery in Florida, and the growth and distribution of the numerous oyster reefs here are the combined product of modern estuarine conditions and the late Holocene evolution of the bay. A suite of geophysical data and cores were collected during a cooperative study by the U.S. Geological Survey, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Coastal Services Center, and the Apalachicola National Estuarine Research Reserve to refine the geology of the bay floor as well as the bay's Holocene stratigraphy. Sidescan-sonar imagery, bathymetry, high-resolution seismic profiles, and cores show that oyster reefs occupy the crests of sandy shoals that range from 1 to 7 kilometers in length, while most of the remainder of the bay floor is covered by mud. The sandy shoals are the surficial expression of broader sand deposits associated with deltas that advanced southward into the bay between 6,400 and 4,400 years before present. The seismic and core data indicate that the extent of oyster reefs was greatest between 2,400 and 1,200 years before present and has decreased since then due to the continued input of mud to the bay by the Apalachicola River. The association of oyster reefs with the middle to late Holocene sandy delta deposits indicates that the present distribution of oyster beds is controlled in part by the geologic evolution of the estuary.

Florida

Grand challenges in understanding the interplay of climate and land changes

Half of Earth’s land surface has been altered by human activities, creating various consequences on the climate and weather systems at local to global scales, which in turn affect a myriad of land surface processes and the adaptation behaviors. This study reviews the status and major knowledge gaps in the interactions of land and atmospheric changes and present 11 grand challenge areas for the scientific research and adaptation community in the coming decade. These land-cover and land-use change (LCLUC)-related areas include 1) impacts on weather and climate, 2) carbon and other biogeochemical cycles, 3) biospheric emissions, 4) the water cycle, 5) agriculture, 6) urbanization, 7) acclimation of biogeochemical processes to climate change, 8) plant migration, 9) land-use projections, 10) model and data uncertainties, and, finally, 11) adaptation strategies. Numerous studies have demonstrated the effects of LCLUC on local to global climate and weather systems, but these putative effects vary greatly in magnitude and even sign across space, time, and scale and thus remain highly uncertain. At the same time, many challenges exist toward improved understanding of the consequences of atmospheric and climate change on land process dynamics and services. Future effort must improve the understanding of the scale-dependent, multifaceted perturbations and feedbacks between land and climate changes in both reality and models. To this end, one critical cross-disciplinary need is to systematically quantify and better understand measurement and model uncertainties. Finally, LCLUC mitigation and adaptation assessments must be strengthened to identify implementation barriers, evaluate and prioritize opportunities, and examine how decision-making processes work in specific contexts.

Earth Interactions