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USGS2021

Characterization of factors affecting groundwater levels in and near the former Lake Traverse Indian Reservation, South Dakota, water years 1956–2017

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Sisseton Wahpeton Oyate, completed a study to characterize water-level fluctuations in observation wells relative to driving factors that affect water levels in and near the historical 1867 boundary of the Lake Traverse Indian Reservation. The study investigated concerns regarding potential effects of groundwater withdrawals and climate conditions on groundwater levels within an area that includes the historical boundary of the reservation and a surrounding area that extends 10 miles in all directions within South Dakota. Characterization of water-level fluctuations in observation wells and relative driving factors was accomplished by statistical trend analysis. Monthly data from the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) were aggregated to obtain annual and seasonal datasets for total precipitation, minimum air temperature ( T min ), and maximum air temperature ( T max ) for the study area and a surrounding buffer area. Trend tests for gridded data for total precipitation, T min , and T max were completed for annual and seasonal time series for water years 1956–2017, which is about 2 years before the earliest available water-level measurements. A 2-year offset was arbitrarily selected because scrutiny of water-level and precipitation data indicated that responses of groundwater levels for many of the observation wells lagged major changes in precipitation patterns by about 2 years. Statistically significant upward trends were detected for annual precipitation and annual T min for most of the study area and the surrounding buffer area. Statistically significant downward trends in T max were detected for only a few 2.5 arc-minute grid cells; however, the sparsity of the spatial coverage reduces confidence that these are true trends, in contrast to the near completeness of the spatial coverage in upward trends for T min . Spatial distributions of statistically significant trends in seasonal climate data were generally similar to the annual trends, but with substantial differences in the spatial density of the trends. Potential interactions among water levels in observation wells and streamflow were examined through correlation analyses of the annual median water level for each of 76 observation wells versus the annual mean streamflow for each of four area streamgages. Potential interactions among water levels in observation wells and lake levels were examined through correlation analyses involving 25 area lakes. Resulting correlation coefficients were used as part of an approach for selecting a lake to be plotted in conjunction with water-level and precipitation data for each observation well. Groundwater trends for 76 observation wells were analyzed for three separate water-level parameters (minimum, median, and maximum) because wells are measured sporadically, and data are biased towards more frequent measurements during periods of heaviest irrigation demand. Trends in the time series of annual precipitation (from PRISM) starting 2 years earlier than the associated water-level trend also were analyzed for the location of each individual observation well. Sen’s slope and Mann-Kendall p -values were computed for the three water-level parameters and for the annual precipitation time series. Graphs showing results of trend analyses for each observation well also showed changes with time in the sum of licensed groundwater withdrawals within six specified radii (0.5, 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 4.0, and 5.0 miles) of each well as a qualitative indicator of proximal groundwater demand. Trends in groundwater levels in observation wells in the study area are predominantly upward, with 43 of 76 wells having significant upward trends for at least one of the three water-level parameters and only 8 wells having significant downward trends for at least one water-level parameter. The upward groundwater trends are driven by predominantly upward precipitation trends, with 43 wells (not all the same wells) also having significant upward trends and no wells having significant downward trends. Significant upward precipitation trends were detected for only two of the eight wells with significant downward groundwater trends. Groundwater levels in some observation wells likely are also substantially affected by interactions with surface water, especially with lakes. Water levels in many area lakes increased in response to wet conditions of the early 1990s and have maintained high water levels ever since. It is recognized that in many cases lakes that were selected for plotting with groundwater hydrographs likely are not hydraulically connected with a groundwater system or aquifer associated with an individual well; however, interactions also are plausible for numerous other lakes for which water-level records are not available.

South Dakota↗

USGS2011

Assessment of surface-water quantity and quality, Eagle River watershed, Colorado, 1947-2007

From the early mining days to the current tourism-based economy, the Eagle River watershed (ERW) in central Colorado has undergone a sequence of land-use changes that has affected the hydrology, habitat, and water quality of the area. In 2000, the USGS, in cooperation with the Colorado River Water Conservation District, Eagle County, Eagle River Water and Sanitation District, Upper Eagle Regional Water Authority, Colorado Department of Transportation, City of Aurora, Town of Eagle, Town of Gypsum, Town of Minturn, Town of Vail, Vail Resorts, City of Colorado Springs, Colorado Springs Utilities, and Denver Water, initiated a retrospective analysis of surface-water quantity and quality in the ERW. Surface-water quantity data and surface-water quality data were obtained from local, State, and Federal agencies to assist in the analysis of surface-water conditions in the ERW 1947-2007. Surface-water-quality data from 293 sites and 12 different source agencies were compiled into 192 unique sites located on streams and rivers in the ERW. Approximately 39 percent of the unique sites had fewer than 5 samples; while 23 percent of the sites had more than 100 samples. Physical properties were the most abundant type of samples collected, with major ions, nutrients, and trace elements also commonly collected. For selected water-quality properties and constituents in the watershed, this report: (1) characterizes available water quantity and water-quality data, (2) identifies spatial and seasonal variability in water quantity and water quality, (3) provides comparisons to Federal and State water-quality standards or recommendations, (4) characterizes temporal changes in water quality, and (5) where possible, identifies potential causes of these changes. This report provides reconnaissance-level statistical summaries and comparisons of water-quality conditions and characteristics using available data within the ERW. The report also includes streamflow statistics such as: mean annual runoff totals, peak-flood-frequency recurrence intervals, and minimum 7-day mean streamflows for selected sites within the watershed. The spatial patterns for concentrations of trace metals (aluminum, cadmium, copper, iron, manganese, and zinc) indicate an increase in dissolved concentrations of these metals near historical mining areas in the Eagle River and several tributaries near Belden. In general, concentrations decrease downstream from mining areas. Concentrations typically are near or below reporting limits in Gore Creek and other tributaries within the watershed. Concentrations for trace elements (arsenic, selenium, and uranium) in the watershed usually are below the reporting limit, and no prevailing spatial patterns were observed in the data. Step-trend analysis and temporal-trend analysis provide evidence that remediation of historical mining areas in the upper Eagle River have led to observed decreases in metals concentrations in many surface-waters. Comparison of pre- and post-remediation concentrations for many metals indicates significant decreases in metals concentrations for cadmium, manganese, and zinc at sites downstream from the Eagle Mine Superfund Site. Some sites show order of magnitude reductions in median concentrations between these two periods. Evaluation of monotonic trends for dissolved metals concentrations show downward trends at numerous sites in, and downstream from, historic mining areas. The spatial pattern of nutrients shows lower concentrations on many tributaries and on the Eagle River upstream from Red Cliff with increases in nutrients downstream of major urban areas. Seasonal variations show that for many nutrient species, concentrations tend to be lowest May-June and highest January-March. The gradual changes in concentrations between seasons may be related to dilution effects from increases and decreases in streamflow. Upward trends in nutrients between the towns of Gypsum and Avon were detected for nitrate, orthophosphate, and total phosphorus. An upward trend in nitrite was detected in Gore Creek. No trends were detected in un-ionized ammonia within the ERW. Exceedances of State water-quality standards (nitrite, nitrate, and un-ionized ammonia) and levels higher than U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recommendations (total phosphorus) occur in several areas within the ERW. The majority of the exceedances are from comparisons to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency total phosphorus recommendations. A positive correlation was observed between suspended sediment and total phosphorus. An upward trend in total dissolved solids in Gore Creek may be the result of increases in chloride salts. Highly significant trends were detected in sodium, potassium, and chloride with a significant upward trend in magnesium and a weakly significant upward trend in calcium. A quantitative analysis of the relative abundance of calcium, magnesium, sodium, and potassium to the available anions suggests that chloride salts likely are the source for the detected upward trends because chloride is the only commonly occurring anion with a trend in Gore Greek. A potential source for the observed chloride salts may be the chemical anti-icing and deicing products used during winter road maintenance in municipal areas and on Interstate-70. A downward trend in dissolved solids in the Eagle River between Gypsum and Avon may be contributing to the detected trend on the Eagle River at Gypsum. Significant downward trends were detected in specific ions such as calcium, magnesium, sulfate, and silica. Measures of total dissolved solids as well as comparisons to specific ions show that in water-quality samples within the ERW concentrations generally are lower in the headwaters, with increases downstream from Wolcott. Differences in concentrations likely result from increased abundance of salt-bearing geologic units downstream from Avon. Few sites had measured concentrations that exceeded the State standards for chloride.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2014

Elk monitoring in Lewis and Clark National Historical Park: 2008-2012 synthesis report

Maintaining elk (Cervus elaphus roosevelti) herds that frequent Lewis and Clark National Historical Park (NHP) is central to the park’s purpose of preserving the historic, cultural, scenic, and natural resources associated with the winter encampment of the Lewis and Clark expedition. Elk were critically important to the Lewis and Clark expedition in providing food and hides that sustained the expedition during the winter of 1805-06 and supplied them for their return east during 1806. Today, elk remain a key component of interpreting the Lewis and Clark story to over 200,000 park visitors each year at the Fort Clatsop visitor center. In 2008, the US Geological Survey (USGS) began collaborating with Lewis and Clark NHP and the NPS North Coast and Cascades Network to develop a protocol for monitoring long-term changes in the magnitude and spatial patterns of elk use within and adjacent to Lewis and Clark NHP (Griffin et al. 2011). Specific objectives of the monitoring program were to measure trends in (1) relative use of the Fort Clatsop unit by elk during winter; (2) the proportion of areas where elk sign is present in the Fort Clatsop unit in winter; and (3) the frequency of elk sightings from roads in and around the Fort Clatsop unit. This report synthesizes the results of the first four years of monitoring elk distribution and use in Lewis and Clark NHP from 2008-2012. We also present data from FY2012 (Appendix 1), in lieu of an annual report for that year. We used fecal pellet group surveys as the cornerstone for monitoring trends in both relative use of the Fort Clatsop Unit by elk and the proportion of areas where elk sign was present at the end of winter. We estimated pellet group density based on data collected from a network of fecal pellet plots distributed systematically throughout the unit. We developed a double observer sampling scheme that enabled us to estimate detection biases and improve the accuracy of pellet group density estimates. We computed the estimated detection probability for any pellet group observed; this probability was a function of the pellet group size and stage of decay, as well as lighting and vegetation conditions, and the number of observers (one or two) searching for pellets in that subplot. We then used these estimated detection probabilities to adjust the raw counts of the detected pellet groups to account for groups that likely went undetected under similar pellet and environmental conditions (each observed pellet group was weighted by the inverse of its estimated detection probability). We also used results from the late winter fecal pellet surveys to quantify the proportion of areas where elk pellets occurred (PAO), which was based on the presence of fecal pellet groups and estimation of detection biases (i.e., accounting for pellet groups that likely went undetected by both observers). In this synthesis, we report temporal trends in both pellet group density and PAO from 2008-2012, based on weighted linear regression analyses as well as spatial variation of pellet group densities over time. We completed late winter fecal pellet surveys at 61-66 plots annually, depending on yearly variation in access. We cleared fecal pellets at survey points in late October / early November each year and returned in late February / early March to count pellet groups left by elk over the winter. The estimated probability that a pellet group was detected by any one observer during late winter was affected most by the pellet group size and was less affected by decay class and lighting conditions. Per-observer detection probabilities ranged from as low as ~10-15% for single pellets to ~85-90% for pellet groups with 50 pellets. Average pellet group density in the Fort Clatsop unit ranged annually from 0.58 (+/- 1.43 standard error [SE]) to 0.93 (+/- 2.25 SE) pellet groups per 3-m radius subplot. Pellet group density declined over time, at approximately 8.8% per year (+/- 2.5% SE), but that slope was not statistically distinguishable from zero (2- tailed P=0.16). Following correction for detection biases, the proportion of surveyed points used by elk (i.e., PAO) ranged from 0.44 (+/- 0.07 SE) to 0.53 (+/- 0.07 SE) during the 4 winters. The estimated proportion of areas where elk pellets occurred (PAO) declined at a rate of 2.6% per year (+/- 1.2% per year SE), but that trend also was not statistically distinguishable from zero (2- tailed P=0.17). Statistical significance of a measure’s trend depends on both the magnitude (i.e., slope) of the observed trend and the number of years the trend continues in the same increasing or decreasing direction. Through simulation modeling we determined how many additional years of surveys would be required to reveal a statistically significant trend, based on the same trends in pellet group density and PAO, and associated variation, observed from 2009-2012. Assuming the same trends persist in the future, simulations indicated that there is a 70% probability that a statistically significant trend would be detected after two more years of conducting pellet group surveys. Relative use by elk during winter, as indexed by elk pellet group density, was generally greatest in the southeast region of the Fort Clatsop unit in or near the large freshwater marsh at the mouth of Colewort Creek and adjacent upland areas. Pellet group density was also higher than average in the north-central forested area, not far from a privately-owned pasture north of the park boundary. This spatial pattern in pellet group densities across the Fort Clatsop unit was consistent across all four years, although specific pellet group densities varied from year to year. Pellet group density declined significantly over time at two points in the southeast of the Fort Clatsop unit, even though pellet group density at those points remained higher than the unit average. Pellet group density increased significantly over time at one point in the north-central region, and at one point in the south-central region of the unit, indicating a slight shift in the distribution of elk use within the Fort Clatsop Unit over the four years. As an index of visitors’ opportunities to see elk in and around the Fort Clatsop Unit, we conducted replicated roadside elk surveys 3-5 times monthly during February, April, June, August, October and December 2008-2012. During each morning of survey, we searched for elk along four routes that totaled 32 km. We examined bimonthly trends in the numbers of elk groups seen, the total number of elk seen, and the observed composition ratios for those six months of the year. The average number of elk groups seen per survey ranged from 0.75 (+/- 0.32 SE) during February to a peak of 1.95 (+/- 0.36 SE) during June. Despite this seasonal variation in numbers of elk groups seen, the average total number of elk seen per morning was less variable. The average ratios of antlered elk to antlerless adult elk (i.e., bulls:cows) and calves to antlerless adult elk (i.e. calves:cows) varied seasonally, with the highest of both average ratios observed in August. We detected no significant trends in the average number of elk groups and total numbers of elk seen per survey from 2008-2012. Similarly, ratios of calves and antlered elk per antlerless elk did not differ over time. Elk groups were frequently seen from January to August in the southeast region of the Fort Clatsop unit, in the vicinity of Colewort Creek. Outside of NPS lands, we observed elk most frequently in open areas near the Astoria regional airport, in the pastures and forests immediately north of the Fort Clatsop unit and, prior to the construction of a residential development, in a pasture northwest of the Fort Clatsop unit. Elk monitoring at Lewis and Clark NHP is still in its initial years and additional monitoring will be required to verify trends that appear to be emerging. For example, the initial monitoring suggested incipient declining trends in both pellet group density and proportion of plots with pellets present, as well as, potentially, a small shift in elk distribution away from a new trail that was recently constructed in the southeast portion of the Fort Clatsop unit. Continued monitoring will aid in determining whether this local change in distribution persists (or, alternatively, resulted from short-term random variation), and whether there will be any positive or negative effect in the northern portion of the unit where a new trail has been constructed. High variability in road counts prevented our ability to find any clear trend in numbers or composition of elk observed in and near Fort Clatsop, but changes in the patterns of observations of elk from roadways suggest that residential development outside the park has reduced the available habitat for elk in some of the areas surveyed, and may have affected spatial use patterns of elk adjacent to some areas of the park. In addition to monitoring future effects of land use changes outside the park, continued monitoring may also prove useful for assessing elk responses to natural succession in forests disturbed by windthrow in December 2007 and to NPS vegetation management activities such as variable density thinning in the forest, trail development, and restoration at Otter Point tidal area and Colewort Creek Slough.

Oregon;Washington↗

USGS2012

Summary and evaluation of the quality of stormwater in Denver, Colorado, 2006-2010

Stormwater in the Denver area was sampled by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Urban Drainage and Flood Control District, in a network of 5 monitoring stations - 3 on the South Platte River and 2 on streams tributary to the South Platte River, Sand Creek, and Toll Gate Creek beginning in January 2006 and continuing through December 2010. Stormwater samples were analyzed at the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Quality Laboratory during 2006-2010 for water-quality properties such as pH, specific conductance, hardness, and residue on evaporation at 105 degrees Celsius; for constituents such as major ions (calcium, magnesium), organic carbon and nutrients, including ammonia plus organic nitrogen, ammonia, dissolved nitrite plus nitrate, total phosphorus, and orthophosphate; and for metals, including total recoverable and dissolved phases of copper, lead, manganese, and zinc. Samples collected during selected storms were also analyzed for bacteriological indicators such as Escherichia coli and fecal coliform at the Metro Wastewater Reclamation Laboratory. About 200 stormwater samples collected during storms characterize the quality of storm runoff during 2006-2010. In general, the quality of stormwater (2006-2010) has improved for many water-quality constituents, many of which had lower values and concentrations than those in stormwater collected in 2002-2005. However, the physical basis, processes, and the role of dilution that account for these changes are complex and beyond the scope of this report. The water-quality sampling results indicate few exceptions to standards except for dissolved manganese, dissolved zinc, and Escherichia coli . Stormwater collected at the South Platte River below Union Avenue station had about 10 percent acute or chronic dissolved manganese exceedances in samples; samples collected at the South Platte River at Denver station had less than 5 percent acute or chronic dissolved manganese exceedances. In contrast, samples collected at Toll Gate Creek above 6th Avenue at Aurora station, Sand Creek at mouth near Commerce City station, and the South Platte River at Henderson station, each had about 30 to 50 percent exceedances of both acute and chronic dissolved manganese standards. Of the samples collected at Sand Creek at mouth near Commerce City, 1 sample exceeded the acute standard and 4 samples exceeded the chronic standard for dissolved zinc, but no samples collected from the other sites exceeded either standard for zinc. Almost all samples of stormwater analyzed for Escherichia coli exceeded Colorado numeric standards. A numerical standard for fecal coliform is no longer applicable as of 2004. Results from the 2002-2005 study indicated that the general quality of stormwater had improved during 2002-2005 compared to 1998-2001, having fewer exceedances of Colorado standards, and showing downward trends for many water-quality values and concentrations. These trends coincided with general downward or relatively similar mean streamflows for the 2002-2005 compared to 1998-2001, which indicates that dilution may be a smaller influence on values and concentrations than other factors. For this report, downward trends were indicated for many constituents at each station during 2006-2010 compared to 2002-2005. The trends for mean streamflow for 2006-2010 compared to 2002-2005 are upward at all sites except for the South Platte River at Henderson, indicating that dilution by larger flows could be a factor in the downward concentration trends. At the South Platte River below Union Avenue station, downward trends were indicated for hardness, dissolved ammonia, dissolved orthophosphate, and dissolved copper. Upward trends at South Platte River below Union Avenue were indicated for pH. At the South Platte River at Denver station, downward trends were indicated for total ammonia plus organic nitrogen, dissolved ammonia, dissolved nitrite plus nitrate, dissolved orthophosphate, total phosphorus, dissolved organic carbon, and dissolved lead, manganese, and zinc, and total recoverable zinc. An upward trend in properties and constituents at South Platte River at Denver was indicated for pH. At Toll Gate Creek above 6th Avenue at Aurora, downward trends were indicated for residue on evaporation, total ammonia plus organic nitrogen, dissolved ammonia, dissolved orthophosphate, total phosphorus, and total recoverable copper, lead, manganese, and zinc. Upward trends in properties and constituents at Toll Gate Creek above 6th Avenue at Aurora were indicated for pH, specific conductance, and dissolved nitrite plus nitrate. At Sand Creek at mouth near Commerce City, downward trends were indicated for hardness, dissolved calcium, total ammonia plus organic nitrogen, and dissolved ammonia, orthophosphate, manganese, and zinc. An upward trend in properties and constituents at Sand Creek at mouth near Commerce City was indicated for pH. Downward trends at South Platte River at Henderson were indicated for specific conductance, hardness, dissolved magnesium, residue on evaporation, total ammonia plus organic nitrogen, dissolved ammonia, dissolved nitrite plus nitrate, dissolved orthophosphate, total phosphorus, dissolved lead and manganese, and total recoverable copper, lead, manganese, and zinc.

Colorado↗

USGS2017

Hydrology and water quality in 13 watersheds in Gwinnett County, Georgia, 2001–15

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with Gwinnett County Department of Water Resources, established a Long-Term Trend Monitoring (LTTM) program in 1996. The LTTM program is a comprehensive, long-term, water-quantity and water-quality monitoring program designed to document and analyze the hydrologic and water-quality conditions of selected watersheds in Gwinnett County, Georgia. Water-quality monitoring initially began in six watersheds and currently [2016] includes 13 watersheds. As part of the LTTM program, streamflow, precipitation, water temperature, specific conductance, and turbidity were measured every 15 minutes for water years 2001–15 at 12 of the 13 watershed monitoring stations and for water years 2010–15 at the other watershed. In addition, discrete water-quality samples were collected seasonally from May through October (summer) and November through April (winter), including one base-flow and three stormflow event composite samples, during the study period. Samples were analyzed for nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus), total organic carbon, trace elements (total lead and total zinc), total dissolved solids, and total suspended sediment (total suspended solids and suspended-sediment concentrations). The sampling scheme was designed to identify variations in water quality both hydrologically and seasonally. The 13 watersheds were characterized for basin slope, population density, land use for 2012, and the percentage of impervious area from 2000 to 2014. Several droughts occurred during the study period—water years 2002, 2007–08, and 2011–12. Watersheds with the highest percentage of impervious areas had the highest runoff ratios, which is the portion of precipitation that occurs as runoff. Watershed base-flow indexes, the ratio of base-flow runoff to total runoff, were inversely correlated with watershed impervious area. Flood-frequency estimates were computed for 13 streamgages in the study area that have 10 or more years of annual peak flow data through water year 2015, using the expected moments algorithm to fit a Pearson Type III distribution to logarithms of annual peak flows. Kendall’s tau nonparametric test was used to determine the statistical significance of trends in the annual peak flows, with none of the 13 streamgages exhibiting significant trends. A comparison of base-flow and stormflow water-quality samples indicates that turbidity and concentrations of total ammonia plus organic nitrogen, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, total organic carbon, total lead, total zinc, total suspended solids, and suspended-sediment concentrations increased with increasing discharge at all watersheds. Specific conductance decreased during stormflow at all watersheds, and total dissolved solids concentrations decreased during stormflow at a few of the watersheds. Total suspended solids and suspended-sediment concentrations typically were two orders of magnitude higher in stormflow samples, turbidities were about 1.5 orders of magnitude higher, total phosphorus and total zinc were about one order of magnitude higher, and total ammonia plus organic nitrogen, total nitrogen, total organic carbon, and total lead were about twofold higher than in base-flow samples. Seasonality and long-term trends were identified for the period water years 2001–15 for 10 constituents—total nitrogen, total nitrate plus nitrite, total phosphorus, dissolved phosphorus, total organic carbon, total suspended solids, suspended-sediment concentration, total lead, total zinc, and total dissolved solids. Seasonal patterns were present in most watersheds for all constituents except total dissolved solids, and the watersheds had fairly similar patterns of higher concentrations in the summer and lower concentrations in the winter. A linear long-term trend analysis of residual concentrations from the flow-only load estimation model (without time-trend terms) identified significant trends in 67 of the 130 constituent-watershed combinations. Seventy percent of the significant trends were negative. Total organic carbon and total dissolved solids had predominantly positive trends. Total phosphorus, total suspended solids, suspended-sediment concentration, total lead, and total zinc had only negative trends. The other three constituents exhibited fewer trends, both positive and negative. Streamwater loads were estimated annually for the 13-year period water years 2003–15 for the same 10 constituents in the trend analysis. Loads were estimated using a regression-model-based approach developed by the USGS for the Gwinnett County LTTM program that accommodates the use of storm-event composited samples. Concentrations were modeled as a function of discharge, base flow, time, season, and turbidity to improve model predictions and reduce errors in load estimates. Total suspended solids annual loads have been identified in Gwinnett County’s Watershed Protection Plan for target performance criterion. Although the amount of annual runoff was the primary factor in variations in annual loads, climatic conditions (classified as dry, average, or wet) affected annual loads beyond what was attributed to climatic-related variations in annual runoff. Significant negative trends in loads were estimated for the combined area of the watersheds for all constituents except dissolved phosphorus, total organic carbon, and total dissolved solids. The trend analysis indicated that total suspended solids and suspended-sediment concentration loads in the study area were decreasing by 57,000 and 87,000 pounds per day per year, respectively. Variations in constituent yields between watersheds appeared to be related to various watershed characteristics. Suspended sediment (as either total suspended solids or suspended-sediment concentrations), along with constituents transported predominately in solid phase (total phosphorus, total organic carbon, total lead, and total zinc), and total dissolved solids typically had higher yields from watersheds that had high percentages of impervious areas or high basin slope. High total nitrogen yields were also associated with watersheds with high percentages of impervious areas. Low total nitrogen, total suspended solids, total lead, and total zinc yields appeared to be associated with watersheds that had a low percentage of high-density development.

Georgia↗

USGS2026

Groundwater-level elevations in the bedrock aquifers of the Denver Basin aquifer system, Elbert County, Colorado, 2015–23

Water users in Elbert County, Colorado, rely on groundwater from bedrock aquifers in the Denver Basin aquifer system (upper Dawson, lower Dawson, Denver, Arapahoe, and Laramie-Fox Hills aquifers) for approximately half of their water uses. Withdrawals from the bedrocks aquifers have increased to meet the water use needs of expanding regional population growth and development. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Elbert County Board of County Commissioners, began a study in 2015 to monitor groundwater levels within Elbert County. The primary purpose of this report is to present a summary of groundwater levels measured during the study period (2015–23) and present results from statistical analyses of changes in groundwater-level elevations through time. Discrete groundwater levels were measured at 36 wells within Elbert County. Seven of those wells contained equipment to make and record continuous groundwater-level measurements at hourly intervals. All aquifers, except the lower Dawson aquifer, had only declining groundwater-level elevations in discrete measurements for wells with statistically significant trends. Of the eight statistically significant trends in the lower Dawson aquifer, two wells indicated increasing groundwater-level elevation from discrete measurements. The groundwater-level elevation trend medians in the upper Dawson, lower Dawson, Denver, Arapahoe, and Laramie-Fox Hills aquifers were −0.23, −0.66, −0.64, −0.39, and −0.63 feet per year, respectively, for discrete groundwater-level elevation measurements. Trends in continuous groundwater-level elevations were in agreement with statistically significant trends in discrete groundwater-level elevations for all wells. The groundwater-level elevation trend medians in this study, compared to the overall trends in a 2015−2018 study, both indicated declining groundwater-level elevations except in the upper Dawson aquifer, where the trend direction was opposite, a positive trend from 2015 to 2018 and a negative trend (declining groundwater elevations) from 2015 to 2023. The change in trends within the upper Dawson aquifer may be affected by differences in the study period and the trend analysis applied. Trends during the 2015–23 study period were compared to departures from the median 2015 groundwater-level elevation for each site in each aquifer. In general, the departures from the 2015 median supported trends observed at each site and correlated spatially with greater departures near the western border of Elbert County. Additionally, 30-year precipitation data showing wet and dry periods were overlaid with the departure from the 2015 median to assess groundwater-level patterns in wells in the five aquifers. Departures from the 2015 median groundwater-level elevations appeared greatest during the dry period between 2020 and 2023. Potentiometric-surface maps of the upper and lower Dawson aquifers created from static April 2023 groundwater elevations indicated groundwater-flow direction is generally from the south to the north. Results of this study could be used to guide additional groundwater monitoring in Elbert County and could aid in long-term planning of water resources.

Colorado↗

USGS2021

A reassessment of Chao2 estimates for population monitoring of grizzly bears in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

The Yellowstone Ecosystem Subcommittee (YES) asked the Interagency Grizzly Bear Study Team (IGBST) to re-assess a technique used in annual population estimation and trend monitoring of grizzly bears in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). This technique is referred to as the Chao2 approach and estimates the number of females with cubs-of-the-year (hereafter, females with cubs) and, in association with other demographic data, is used by the IGBST to produce annual population estimates. Females with cubs are an easily recognizable population segment, and trends for this reproductive segment of the population are assumed to be representative of trend for the entire population. The overarching objective of the analyses presented in this report was to provide a more accurate representation of the GYE grizzly bear population using the current methodologies in place. Specifically, we addressed two limitations of the current Chao2 approach: 1) underestimation bias associated with a distance criterion used to differentiate annual sightings of females with cubs into unique individuals and 2) limitations of the model-averaging approach to effectively distinguish among potential future population trajectories (decline, stability, and growth). The first issue addressed in this report is the underestimation bias associated with the rule set that Knight et al. (1995) developed to differentiate sightings of females with cubs into unique individuals (i.e., unique family groups). The rule set was originally designed to be conservative by reducing the risk of identifying more females with cubs than actually existed, primarily through use of a distance criterion of 30 km to separate sightings of unique females. This approach resulted in an underestimation bias, and previous research demonstrated that this bias increases with increasing number of females with cubs. Using location data from radio-marked females with cubs, we evaluated alternative distance criteria by simulating scenarios with varying numbers of true females with cubs and sightings. Findings from these analyses demonstrate that bias in estimates of females with cubs can be substantially reduced by changing the 30-km distance criterion in the rule set to 16 km, which produced relatively unbiased estimates. Findings also indicate, however, the importance of adaptability with regard to the distance criteria because of the complex relationships and biases among the various parameters involved in estimation of unique females with cubs. The total number of annual sightings and the true number of females with cubs play particularly important roles. Whereas these analyses remind us that there is no perfect approach to estimating the number of females with cubs from sightings under various scenarios, they provide us with new tools to determine when and how to adapt the monitoring program. The second issue we were tasked to investigate was the potential for improvement of the technique referred to as model-averaging, which serves to smooth relatively high variation in annual estimates. This technique was chosen by YES as the basis for monitoring the Yellowstone grizzly bear population, as described in the 2016 Conservation Strategy. This choice was made in part because the technique has been well documented and population estimates derived from counts of females with cubs are conservative. Using simulations of population trends, we demonstrate why the model-averaging technique currently used cannot distinguish between plausible future trend scenarios. As a suitable alternative to model averaging, we propose the use of generalized additive models (GAMs). Using a suite of simulated trend dynamics relevant to management, we demonstrate GAM performance for tracking trends in females with cubs within the context of the annual monitoring program. We demonstrate the ability to not only document directional changes in population trend but also patterns of stabilization or resiliency after such changes. Furthermore, the proposed monitoring framework provides objective measures useful for early detection of directional changes in trend. The new framework is flexible, allowing retrospective analysis of Chao2-based estimates and future applications to time series of other population metrics, such as vital rates. The aforementioned updates provide us with new tools to determine when and how to adapt the monitoring program. Within the context of current monitoring protocols and effort, and considering the full suite of simulations presented in this report and previous studies, the IGBST plans to incorporate the following changes to the population monitoring protocol: 1) modify the distance criterion, starting with 16 km under current sampling conditions and 2) revise the population monitoring framework using GAMs as the basis for smoothing of annual estimates and detecting trends and changes in trend. Implementation of the 16-km distance criterion combined with use of GAM techniques would affect some of the population metrics (e.g., annual population size and uncertainty, population trend, mortality rates) used to inform management responses. A primary consideration is that the 16-km distance criterion results in total population estimates derived from the Chao2 estimates that are greater than those we have reported in the past. This increase is due to a change in the implementation of the technique and more accurately represents the number of females with cubs in the GYE grizzly bear population. Additionally, interpretation of retrospective trend patterns may change due to the combination of a different distance criterion and enhanced trend monitoring based on the GAM approach we present here. Implementation will require relatively minor changes in the monitoring protocols described in Appendices B and C of the 2016 Conservation Strategy. Finally, we note that the IGBST has ongoing investigations into the merits of an Integrated Population Model (IPM), for which annual Chao2-based estimates are important input data. The IGBST plans to continue those investigations using the 16-km distance criterion to derive Chao2 estimates.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗

USGS2014

Dissolved-solids sources, loads, yields, and concentrations in streams of the conterminous United States

Recent studies have shown that excessive dissolved-solids concentrations in water can have adverse effects on the environment and on agricultural, domestic, municipal, and industrial water users. Such effects motivated the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Water Quality Assessment Program to develop a SPAtially-Referenced Regression on Watershed Attributes (SPARROW) model that has improved the understanding of sources, loads, yields, and concentrations of dissolved solids in streams of the conterminous United States. Using the SPARROW model, long-term mean annual dissolved-solids loads from 2,560 water-quality monitoring stations were statistically related to several spatial datasets that are surrogates for dissolved-solids sources and land-to-water delivery processes. Specifically, sources in the model included variables representing geologic materials, road deicers, urban lands, cultivated lands, and pasture lands. Transport of dissolved solids from these sources was modulated by land-to-water delivery variables that represent precipitation, streamflow, soil, vegetation, terrain, population, irrigation, and artificial drainage characteristics. Where appropriate, the load estimates, source variables, and transport variables were statistically adjusted to represent conditions for the base year 2000. The nonlinear least-squares estimated SPARROW model was used to predict long-term mean annual conditions for dissolved-solids sources, loads, yields, and concentrations in a digital hydrologic network representing nearly 66,000 stream reaches and their corresponding incremental catchments that drain the Nation. Nationwide, the predominant source of dissolved solids yielded from incremental catchments and delivered to local streams is geologic materials in 89 percent of the catchments, road deicers in 5 percent of the catchments, pasture lands in 3 percent of the catchments, urban lands in 2 percent of the catchments, and cultivated lands in 1 percent of the catchments. Whereas incremental catchments with dissolved solids that originated predominantly from geologic sources or from urban lands are found across much of the Nation, incremental catchments with dissolved solids yields that originated predominantly from road deicers are largely found in the Northeast, and incremental catchments with dissolved solids that originated predominantly from cultivated or pasture lands are largely found in the West. The total amount of dissolved solids delivered to the Nation’s streams is 271.9 million metric tons (Mt) annually, of which 194.2 million Mt (71.4%) come from geologic sources, 37.7 million Mt (13.9%) come from road deicers, 18.2 million Mt (6.7%) come from pasture lands, 13.9 million Mt (5.1%) come from urban lands, and 7.9 million Mt (2.9%) come from cultivated lands. Nationwide, the median incremental-catchment yield delivered to local streams is 26 metric tons per year per square kilometer [(Mt/yr)/km 2 ]. Ten percent of the incremental catchments yield less than 4 (Mt/yr)/km 2 , and 10 percent yield more than 90 (Mt/yr)/km 2 . Incremental-catchment yields greater than 50 (Mt/yr)/km 2 mostly occur along the northern part of the West Coast and in a crescent shaped band south of the Great Lakes. For example, the median incremental-catchment yield is 81 (Mt/yr)/km 2 for the Great Lakes, 78 (Mt/yr)/km 2 for the Ohio, and 74 (Mt/yr)/km 2 for the Upper Mississippi water-resources regions. Incremental-catchment yields less than 10 (Mt/yr)/km 2 mostly occur in a wide band across the arid lowland of the interior West that excludes areas along the coast and the extensive, higher mountain ranges. For example, the median incremental-catchment yield is 3 (Mt/yr)/km 2 for the Lower Colorado, 5 (Mt/yr)/km 2 for the Rio Grande, and 8 (Mt/yr)/km 2 for the Great Basin water-resources regions. Predicted incremental loads were cascaded down through the reach network, with loads accumulating from reach to reach. For most stream reaches, the entire incremental load of dissolved solids delivered to the reach was transported to either the ocean or to one of the large streams flowing along the U.S. international boundary without losses occurring along the way. The exceptions to this include streams in the southwestern part of the country, such as the Colorado River, Rio Grande, and streams of internally drained drainages in the Great Basin, where dissolved-solids loads decreased through streamflow diversion for off-stream use, or by infiltration through the streambed. Long-term mean annual flow-weighted concentrations were derived from the predicted accumulated-load and stream-discharge data. Widespread low concentrations, generally less than 100 milligrams per liter (mg/L), occur in many reaches of the New England, South Atlantic-Gulf, and Pacific Northwest water-resources regions as a result of moderate dissolved-solids yields and high runoff rates. Widespread moderate concentrations, generally between 100 and 500 mg/L, occur in many reaches of the Great Lakes, Ohio, and Upper Mississippi River water-resources regions. Whereas dissolved-solids yields are generally high in these regions, runoff rates are also high, which helps moderate concentrations in these regions. Widespread higher concentrations, generally greater than 500 mg/L, occur across a belt of reaches that extends almost continuously from Canada to Mexico in the Midwest, cutting through the Souris-Red-Rainy, Missouri, Arkansas-White-Red, Texas-Gulf, and Rio Grande water-resources regions. Although dissolved-solids yields are moderate to low in these areas, low runoff rates result in the high concentrations for these areas. In 12.6 percent of the Nation’s stream reaches, predicted concentrations of dissolved solids exceed 500 mg/L, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s secondary, nonenforceable drinking water standard. While this standard provides a metric for evaluating predicted concentrations in the context of drinking-water supplies, it should be noted that it only applies to drinking water actually served to customers by water utilities, and it does not apply to all stream reaches in the Nation nor does it apply during times when water is not being withdrawn for use. Exceedance of 500 mg/L is more pronounced in certain water-resources regions than others. For example, about half of the reaches in the Souris-Red-Rainy region have concentrations predicted to exceed 500 mg/L, and between 25 and 37 percent of the reaches in the Missouri, Arkansas-White-Red, Texas-Gulf, Rio Grande, and Lower Colorado regions are predicted to exceed 500 mg/L. Development of stream-load data for use in the SPARROW model also provided long-term temporal trend information in dissolved-solids concentrations at the monitoring stations for their period of record, which was constrained between 1980 and 2009. For the 2,560 monitoring stations used in this study, long-term trends in flow-adjusted dissolved-solids concentrations increased over time at 23 percent of the stations, decreased at 18 percent of the stations, and did not change over time at 59 percent of the stations. Long-term trends show a strong regional spatial pattern where from the western parts of the Great Plains to the West Coast, concentrations mostly either did not change or decreased over time, and from the eastern parts of the Great Plains to the East Coast, concentrations mostly either did not change or increased over time. Results from the trend analysis and from the SPARROW model indicate that, compared to monitoring stations with no trends or decreasing trends, stations with increasing trends are associated with a smaller percentage of the predicted dissolved-solids load originating from geologic sources, and a larger percentage originating from urban lands and road deicers. Conversely, compared to stations with increasing trends or no trends, stations with decreasing trends have a larger percentage of the predicted dissolved-solids load originating from geologic sources and a smaller percentage originating from urban lands and road deicers. Stations with decreasing trends also have larger percentages of predicted dissolved-solids load originating from cultivated lands and pasture lands, compared to stations with increasing trends or no trends.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2020

Groundwater levels in the Denver Basin bedrock aquifers of Douglas County, Colorado, 2011–19

Municipal and domestic water users in Douglas County, Colorado, rely on groundwater from the bedrock aquifers in the Denver Basin aquifer system as part of their water supply. The four principal Denver Basin bedrock aquifers are, from shallowest to deepest, the Dawson aquifer (divided administratively into “upper” and “lower” Dawson aquifers in Douglas County), the Denver aquifer, the Arapahoe aquifer, and the Laramie-Fox Hills aquifer. Increased groundwater pumping in response to rapid population growth and development has led to declining groundwater levels in Douglas County, where groundwater is a primary water source for densely populated and rural communities. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Rural Water Authority of Douglas County, began a study in 2011 to assess the groundwater resources of the Denver Basin bedrock aquifers within the county. The primary purpose of this report is to present a summary of groundwater levels measured during the study period (2011–19) and present results from statistical analyses of changes in groundwater-level elevations, reported above the land-surface datum, North American Vertical Datum of 1988, through time. During the study period, January 2011 through June 2019, discrete groundwater levels were routinely measured at 36 wells producing from Denver Basin bedrock aquifers within Douglas County. Of the 36 wells, 15 are instrumented with pressure transducers that record groundwater-level measurements at hourly intervals, and these data were temporally aggregated into time-series records. During 2011, wells were added to the monitoring network in phases, so that the start dates of the well records are noncontemporaneous. To keep temporal analysis among wells consistent, the periods of record used in statistical analyses were from February 2012 through February 2019 for the discrete data and from January 2012 through June 2019 for the time-series data. The upper Dawson, lower Dawson, Denver, and Arapahoe aquifers had some wells with rises in calculated groundwater-level elevations, but most wells showed declines on the basis of statistically significant trends and the relative differences in static groundwater-level elevations between the February 2012 and February 2019 measurements. Neither of the two wells in the Laramie-Fox Hills aquifer showed significant trends in groundwater-level elevations, and these wells had few static discrete measurements, precluding a comparison between 2012 and 2019 static groundwater-level elevations. Of the 13 wells in the upper Dawson, lower Dawson, Denver, and Arapahoe aquifers with significant trends in discrete groundwater-level elevation measurements, the records of 12 wells demonstrated negative trends during the study period. The upper Dawson, lower Dawson, Denver, and Arapahoe aquifers had median significant trends of −0.23, −0.31, −0.92, and −2.26 feet per year, respectively. Although the Arapahoe aquifer had the greatest negative median trend, this median only represents one well with significant trends. Otherwise, the Denver aquifer had the next greatest negative trend, with a median trend of −0.92 foot per year. Significant trends in time-series groundwater-level elevations agreed with significant trends in discrete groundwater-level elevations; for all wells with statistically significant trends in discrete and in time-series groundwater-level elevation data, trend estimates from the two records were within 0.1 foot per year of each other. Potentiometric-surface maps of the upper Dawson, lower Dawson, and Denver aquifers, created using discrete static groundwater levels measured in February 2019, show that groundwater flow direction for the upper Dawson, lower Dawson, and Denver aquifers is generally from south to north. Results of this study could guide future groundwater monitoring in the county and aid in long-term planning of water resources.

Colorado↗

USGS2026

Analyses of meteorological and hydrological records support Tribal members’ accounts of changing climate on the Fort Apache Reservation, east–central Arizona

The Fort Apache Reservation in east–central Arizona, home to the White Mountain Apache Tribe of the Fort Apache Reservation, Arizona, contains several climate zones because of the large variation in surface elevation within the reservation. This study was carried out in cooperation with the White Mountain Apache Tribe of the Fort Apache Reservation, Arizona, to raise awareness of how the changing climate affects the Fort Apache Reservation. This report documents the evaluation of existing multidecadal meteorological and hydrological datasets for the Fort Apache Reservation, used to evaluate the effects of a changing climate on the reservation. In this evaluation, near-surface air temperature, snow depth, snow water equivalent, precipitation, and streamflow datasets were analyzed for monotonic trends indicative of changing climatic conditions during specified periods of time. The results of these trend analyses were then compared with the Tribal community's memories of the changing climate. Trend analysis of near-surface air temperatures from a U.S. Historical Climatological Network station on the Fort Apache Reservation at Whiteriver, Arizona, indicated that mean annual air temperatures have increased by an average of 2.48 degrees Fahrenheit from 1980 to 2023. Records from the same station also indicated that average monthly maximum temperatures recorded for March increased by 5.39 degrees Fahrenheit for the same time period. Annual precipitation at the five precipitation stations used in this study decreased greatly from the 1980s to 2023. The largest total decrease was 10.07 inches, or 34.7 percent. However, only one of the two precipitation stations with longer term data available prior to 1980 had a significant negative trend when data from the entire period of record, from 1901 to 2023, were analyzed. Trend analyses show a decrease in the annual maximum snow water equivalent and an earlier disappearance of the snowpack at two Natural Resources Conservation Service snow telemetry stations in the mountainous region just east of the Fort Apache Reservation from 1981 to 2023. Based on the trend analyses, the average annual maximum snow water equivalent has decreased by more than 40 percent at both stations, and the average date when the snowpack was fully melted at the stations in the spring has moved earlier in time from late April to early April or late March. However, a statistically significant trend was not determined for the early April snow water equivalent measured at a nearby Natural Resources Conservation Service snow course across its period of record, indicating that the history of mountain snowpack in this area is not fully understood. Analysis of snowfall data from a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Cooperative Observer Program network station on the Fort Apache Reservation at McNary 2N, AZ (station 025412) indicated that, on average, the measured total annual snowfall at the station decreased 42.4 percent from 1935 to 2023. Streamflow data from six U.S. Geological Survey streamgages on the Fort Apache Reservation were analyzed for trends. For most streamflow gages, statistically significant trends were not determined for tested parameters when the entire streamflow period of record was used for stations with records going back to at least the 1960s. However, when the data from 1980 to 2023 was tested, most of the streamflow parameters had statistically significant negative trends. All six streamgages showed a decrease in average annual runoff of at least 50 percent from 1980 to 2023; one streamgage showed an 81.8 percent decrease. A similar statistical finding was observed in the analysis of the annual spring snowmelt peak from one of the six streamgages used in the study and located in an area receiving measurable amounts of snowmelt runoff. When data from the entire period of record (1958–2023) was used, no trend in streamflow was determined; however, a significant negative trend was determined from 1980 to 2023, indicating a decrease in average annual springtime runoff of 62.6 percent. Statistical analysis on the timing of the annual spring snowmelt peak at the same streamgage indicated the snowmelt peak is happening on average about 12 days earlier now (2023) than it did in the past. The trend results for the timing of the annual spring snowmelt peak were the same and statistically significant for both periods tested (1958–2023 and 1980–2023). Two of the streamflow records from the Fort Apache Reservation were compared to the Palmer Hydrological Drought Index computed for Arizona Climate Division 4 (East Central) by the National Centers for Environmental Information. The comparison showed that the streamflow records generally tracked the Palmer Hydrological Drought Index. In interviews, Tribal community members living on the Fort Apache Reservation described the changes in climate that they observed during their lifetimes. Common themes reported were that air temperatures have become warmer, and the weather is less predictable with changes in seasonal patterns. Drier conditions, lower snowfall, shorter winters, and lower river levels were also reported. These community member observations align with the results of this study.

Arizona↗

USGS2023

Site occupancy of focal shorebird species at Whiskey Island and Caminada Headland, Louisiana 2012–2020

Coastal restoration through island construction and augmentation is an increasingly common management method in the northern Gulf of Mexico, but evaluating the impacts to shorebird species is difficult. Shorebirds are mostly migratory and many aspects of their life history, including reproduction in some species, occur in other places. In addition, counts or observations of shorebirds made at any given time represent only a portion of the population and that proportion may change with site conditions such as time of day and weather. Dynamic occupancy models can account for imperfect detection and produce estimates of the proportion of area occupied over time as a way to track trends in bird utilization over time. In this chapter we report on occupancy trends for five focal shorebird species from Caminada Headland and Whiskey Island: American Oystercatcher ( Haematopus palliatus ), Piping Plover ( Charadrius melodus ), Red Knot ( Calidris canutus ), Snowy Plover ( Charadrius nivosus ), and Wilson’s Plover ( Charadrius wilsonia ). We examined up to nine years of surveys at the two sites to model long-term trends in occupancy rates from a period spanning before, during, and after restoration. Our objective was to determine if there was change in occupancy over time (trend) during the restoration period. Field sampling was conducted as described in Chapter 1 for the five focal species in this chapter. To create spatial units for occupancy analysis we used a grid of 53 unique cells at Caminada Headland and 26 unique cells at Whiskey Island. All observations of the species were located into spatial units using GIS and presence of each species in each cell was determined for each visit within a sampling season. Sampling seasons were defined for species as the period of time where they were most likely to be using the study area, and corresponded with wintering (August–May), breeding (April–August), or staging (March–October). We did not include covariates for initial occupancy or colonization and site survival because these were small sites with homogenous habitat. We did account for time of year within a season by treating survey date as a covariate of detection probability and allowed it to vary throughout the season. We tested for a trend in occupancy over time by determining if the estimated slope through the series of annual occupancy estimates was significantly different from 0. We conducted 153 total surveys at Caminada Headland from 11 January 2013 to 5 June 2019, and 213 total surveys at Whiskey Island from 7 August 2012 to 19 August 2020. The number of surveys per year varied by species and site and range from 6–23 per species annually at Caminada Headland and 11–28 per species annually at Whiskey Island. Occupancy trends were able to be assessed for all species at both sites, with the exception of the American Oystercatcher, which were only observed in sufficient numbers to estimate occupancy at Whiskey Island. We found a significant positive trend in occupancy from 0.325 to 0.741 for American Oystercatcher at Whiskey Island. There was no significant trend in Piping Plover occupancy at Caminada Headland where occupancy was consistently high (0.910 to 0.947). At Whiskey Island, Piping Plover occupancy estimates increased from 0.574 to 0.908 during the study period which was a significant increase. At Caminada Headland and Whiskey Island Red Knot occupancy varied from 0.482 to 0.891 and 0.350 to 0.742, respectively, but showed no significant trend over the study period. Snowy Plover occupancy at Caminada Headland increased significantly from 0.295 to 0.785 over the study period. Snowy Plover occupancy also increased significantly at Whiskey Island from 0.442 to 0.906. Wilson’s Plover occupancy declined slightly during the study period from 0.946 to 0.935 at Caminada Headland, and from 0.858 to 0.736 at Whiskey Island, but the decline was not significant at either site. We found no evidence that occupancy declined significantly for any of the species during the period prior to, during, and after restoration. We did find a significant increasing trend in occupancy for Snowy Plover at Caminada Headland and a significant increasing trend for American Oystercatcher, Piping Plover, and Snowy Plover at Whiskey Island. Our modeling results indicate that sampling such as this is sufficient for occupancy modeling and can provide a robust metric for comparison over time or among sites. In future research we plan to investigate the sample size needed to detect a trend. We are currently conducting a power analysis to determine the minimum amount of sampling necessary to have power to detect a trend based on the detection probabilities from this study.

Report↗

USGS2023

Analyses of regulatory water-quality data

Between 1952 and 1964, hexavalent chromium, Cr(VI), was released into groundwater from the Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E) Hinkley compressor station in the Mojave Desert 80 miles northeast of Los Angeles, California. The Pacific Gas and Electric Company has monitored groundwater near Hinkley, California, for Cr(VI) and other constituents since the late 1980s. By June 2017, more than 20,000 samples had been collected and analyzed for Cr(VI) for regulatory purposes. Most Cr(VI) samples were analyzed using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Method 218.6 with a laboratory reporting level (LRL) of 0.2 micrograms per liter (μg/L). Between July 2012 and June 2017, selected samples were analyzed for low-level Cr(VI) concentrations using a modified version of EPA Method 218.6 with an LRL of 0.06 μg/L. Field-blank data and duplicate samples collected during this period indicate a study reporting level (SRL) of 0.2 μg/L for most analyses and a SRL of 0.12 μg/L for low-level Cr(VI) analyses. The overall precision for Cr(VI) data analyzed by both methods at the interim regulatory Cr(VI) background concentration of 3.1 μg/L was 0.09 μg/L, or about 3 percent. Hexavalent chromium concentration trends were calculated for 564 monitoring wells for the period from July 2012 through June 2017. Upward Cr(VI) concentration trends were present in water from 102 monitoring wells throughout Hinkley and Water Valleys. Upward Cr(VI) concentration trends in water from wells near the margins of the October–December 2015 (Q4 2015) regulatory Cr(VI) plume (1) within strands of the Lockhart fault east and southeast of the Hinkley compressor station and (2) in water from shallow wells within the northern subarea were consistent with expansion of the Cr(VI) plume in these areas between 2012 and 2017. Upward Cr(VI) concentration trends were widely distributed elsewhere in Hinkley and Water Valleys outside the Q4 2015 regulatory Cr(VI) plume and were commonly associated with declining water levels. These upward trends may result from natural Cr(VI) sources, including movement of Cr(VI) containing groundwater from (1) weathered bedrock, (2) fine-textured deposits, or (3) secondarily oxidized material distributed throughout aquifer deposits. Downward Cr(VI) concentration trends were observed in 146 monitoring wells. Downward trends were largely within the Q4 2015 regulatory Cr(VI) plume and can be attributed to remediation activities downgradient from the Hinkley compressor station. Hexavalent chromium concentration trends also were calculated for 219 domestic wells from July 2012 through June 2017. Upward Cr(VI) concentration trends in 8 domestic wells and downward trends in 23 domestic wells were clustered largely within former residential areas west of the Q4 2015 regulatory Cr(VI) plume. Results of Cr(VI) trend analyses (including upward, downward, and no trend) were used with other data as part of a summative-scale analysis (chapter G) to define the extent of anthropogenic Cr(VI) and natural Cr(VI) within Hinkley and Water Valleys.

California↗

USGS2016

Selected low-flow frequency statistics for continuous-record streamgages in Georgia, 2013

This report presents the annual and monthly minimum 1- and 7-day average streamflows with the 10-year recurrence interval (1Q10 and 7Q10) for 197 continuous-record streamgages in Georgia. Streamgages used in the study included active and discontinued stations having a minimum of 10 complete climatic years of record as of September 30, 2013. The 1Q10 and 7Q10 flow statistics were computed for 85 streamgages on unregulated streams with minimal diversions upstream, 43 streamgages on regulated streams, and 69 streamgages known, or considered, to be affected by varying degrees of diversions upstream. Descriptive information for each of these streamgages, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) station number, station name, latitude, longitude, county, drainage area, and period of record analyzed also is presented. Kendall’s tau nonparametric test was used to determine the statistical significance of trends in annual and monthly minimum 1-day and 7-day average flows for the 197 streamgages. Significant negative trends in the minimum annual 1-day and 7-day average streamflow were indicated for 77 of the 197 streamgages. Many of these significant negative trends are due to the period of record ending during one of the recent droughts in Georgia, particularly those streamgages with record through the 2013 water year. Long-term unregulated streamgages with 70 or more years of record indicate significant negative trends in the annual minimum 7-day average flow for central and southern Georgia. Watersheds for some of these streamgages have experienced minimal human impact, thus indicating that the significant negative trends observed in flows at the long-term streamgages may be influenced by changing climatological conditions. A Kendall-tau trend analysis of the annual air temperature and precipitation totals for Georgia indicated no significant trends. A comprehensive analysis of causes of the trends in annual and monthly minimum 1-day and 7-day average flows in central and southern Georgia is outside the scope of this study. Further study is needed to determine some of the causes, including both climatological and human impacts, of the significant negative trends in annual minimum 1-day and 7-day average flows in central and southern Georgia. To assess the changes in the annual 1Q10 and 7Q10 statistics over time for long-term continuous streamgages with significant trends in record, the annual 1Q10 and 7Q10 statistics were computed on a decadal accumulated basis for 39 streamgages having 40 or more years of record that indicated a significant trend. Records from most of the streamgages showed a decline in 7Q10 statistics for the decades of 1980–89, 1990–99, and 2000–09 because of the recent droughts in Georgia. Twenty four of the 39 streamgages had complete records from 1980 to 2010, and records from 23 of these gages exhibited a decline in the 7Q10 statistics during this period, ranging from –6.3 to –76.2 percent with a mean of –27.3 percent. No attempts were made during this study to adjust streamflow records or statistical analyses on the basis of trends. The monthly and annual 1Q10 and 7Q10 flow statistics for the entire period of record analyzed in the study are incorporated into the USGS StreamStatsDB, which is a database accessible to users through the recently released USGS StreamStats application for Georgia. StreamStats is a Web-based geographic information system that provides users with access to an assortment of analytical tools that are useful for water-resources planning and management, and for engineering design applications, such as the design of bridges. StreamStats allows users to easily obtain streamflow statistics, basin characteristics, and other information for user-selected streamgages.

Georgia↗

USGS2018

Changes in biological communities of the Fountain Creek Basin, Colorado, 2003–2016, in relation to antecedent streamflow, water quality, and habitat

The analysis described in this report is part of a longterm project monitoring the biological communities, habitat, and water quality of the Fountain Creek Basin. Biology, habitat, and water-quality data have been collected at 10 sites since 2003. These data include annual samples of aquatic invertebrate communities, fish communities, water quality, and quantitative riverine habitat. This report examines trends in biological communities from 2003 to 2016 and explores relationships between biological communities and abiotic variables (antecedent streamflow, physical habitat, and water quality). Six biological metrics (three invertebrate and three fish) and four individual fish species were used to examine trends in these data and how streamflow, habitat, and (or) water quality may explain these trends. The analysis of 79 trends shows that the majority of significant trends decreased over the trend period. Overall, 19 trends before adjustments for streamflow in the fish (12) and invertebrate (7) metrics were all decreasing except for the metric Invertebrate Species Richness at the most upstream site in Monument Creek. Seven of these trends were explained by streamflow and four trends were revealed that were originally masked by variability in antecedent streamflow. Only two sites (Jimmy Camp Creek at Fountain, CO and Fountain Creek near Pinon, CO) had no trends in the fish or invertebrate metrics. Ten of the streamflow-adjusted trends were explained by habitat, one was explained by water quality, and five were not explained by any of the variables that were tested. Overall, from 2003 to 2016, all the fish metric trends were decreasing with an average decline of 40 percent, and invertebrate metrics decreased on average by 9.5 percent. A potential peak streamflow threshold was identified above which there is severely limited production of age-0 flathead chub (Platygobio gracilis).

Colorado↗

USGS2019

State of lake ecosystem conference sub Indicator: Prey fish

Overall Assessment Status: Fair Trends 10-Year Trend: Unchanging Long-term Trend (1973-2017): Undetermined Rationale: Great Lakes prey fish community status remains ”Fair” based on diversity and percent native species, but individual lake status varied. Both diversity and percent native metrics were classified as “Good” in Lake Superior, but “Poor” in Lake Ontario (Table 1). Lakes Huron and Michigan were both “Fair” (Table 1). In Lake Erie, diversity remained “Fair,” but the proportion native species shifted to “Poor,” resulting in an overall conservative classification of “Poor” (Table 1). Four of the five lakes had the same status as the previous reporting period, but Lake Erie shifted from “Fair” to “Poor.” At the ten-year timescale, lake-specific trends were “Unchanging” in three lakes and “Deteriorating” in two lakes (Table 2). The trend for all lakes was therefore categorized as “Unchanging.” It is important to recognize six of the ten individual prey fish metrics did not trend up or down over the past ten years (Table 2). In Lake Erie, diversity and percent native were both “Deteriorating” and the Lake Michigan diversity was noted as “Deteriorating.” The only “Improving” trend was observed in the Lake Ontario where the percent of native species significantly increased from two to four percent of the total catch due to increased relative abundance of native Deepwater Sculpin (Weidel et al., 2017b). Long-term prey fish trends varied substantially with categorizations of “Improving,” “Deteriorating,” and “Undetermined,” and two lakes were “Unchanging” (Table 2). Because many of the long-term trends were in opposite directions, the overall classification for the long-term trend was “Undetermined.” In Lake Superior, both metrics have “Improving,” in Lake Michigan diversity is “Improving,” and in Lake Huron the percent native metric is “Improving” as non-native Alewife declined, and the relative importance of native Bloater increased. Alternatively, Lake Ontario long-term trends are “Deteriorating” as the proportion of Alewife in catches has increased. No long-term trends were detected in either of the Lake Erie metrics. Prey fish community changes are driven by changing ecosystem conditions including productivity changes, fluctuating predator composition and density, increasing water clarity, increasing water temperatures, and non-native species effects. While these driving factors are changing in similar directions across the region, because lakes are unique in their nutrient concentrations, morphometry, hydrology, and fish communities, the prey fish communities in each lake respond differently to changes in ecosystem drivers (Figure 1).

Report↗

USGS2020

Identifying areas of degrading and improving groundwater-quality conditions in the State of California, USA, 1974-2014

Areas of improving and degrading groundwater-quality conditions in the State of California were assessed using spatial weighting of a new metric for scoring wells based on constituent concentrations and the direction and magnitude of a trend slope (Sen). Individual well scores were aggregated across 2135 equal-area grid cells covering the entire groundwater resource used for public supply in the state. Spatial weighting allows results to be aggregated locally (well or grid cell), regionally (groundwater basin), provincially, or statewide. Results differentiate degrading (increasing concentration trends) areas with low to moderate concentrations (unimpaired) from degrading areas with moderate to high concentrations (impaired). Results also differentiate improving areas (decreasing concentration trends) in the same manner. Multi-year to decadal groundwater-quality trends were computed from periodic, inorganic water-quality data for 38 constituents collected between 1974 and 2014 for compliance monitoring of nearly 13,000 public-supply wells (PSWs) in the State of California. Mann-Kendall (MK) rank correlations and Sen’s slope estimator were used to detect statistically significant trends for the entire period of recorded data (long-term trend), for the period since 2000 (recent trend), for different pumping seasons (seasonal trend), and for reversals of trends. Statewide, the most frequently detected trends since 2000 were for nitrate (36%), gross alpha/uranium (10%), arsenic (14%), total dissolved solids (TDS) (23%), and the major ions that contribute to TDS (19–28%). The Transverse and Selected Peninsular Ranges (TSPR) and the San Joaquin Valley (SJV) hydrogeologic provinces had the largest percentage of areas with moderate to high nitrate concentrations and groundwater quality trends. Improving nitrate concentrations in parts of the TSPR is associated with long-term managed aquifer recharge that has replaced historical, agriculturally affected groundwater with low-nitrate recharge in parts of the TSPR. This example suggests that application of dilute, excess surface water to agricultural fields during the winter could improve groundwater-quality in the SJV over the long term.

California↗

USGS2017

Combined analysis of roadside and off-road breeding bird survey data to assess population change in Alaska

Management interest in North American birds has increasingly focused on species that breed in Alaska, USA, and Canada, where habitats are changing rapidly in response to climatic and anthropogenic factors. We used a series of hierarchical models to estimate rates of population change in 2 forested Bird Conservation Regions (BCRs) in Alaska based on data from the roadside North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) and the Alaska Landbird Monitoring Survey, which samples off-road areas on public resource lands. We estimated long-term (1993–2015) population trends for 84 bird species from the BBS and short-term (2003–2015) trends for 31 species from both surveys. Among the 84 species with long-term estimates, 11 had positive trends and 17 had negative trends in 1 or both BCRs; negative trends were primarily found among aerial insectivores and wetland-associated species, confirming range-wide negative continental trends for many of these birds. Three species with negative trends in the contiguous United States and southern Canada had positive trends in Alaska, suggesting different population dynamics at the northern edges of their ranges. Regional population trends within Alaska differed for several species, particularly those represented by different subspecies in the 2 BCRs, which are separated by rugged, glaciated mountain ranges. Analysis of the roadside and off-road data in a joint hierarchical model with shared parameters resulted in improved precision of trend estimates and suggested a roadside-related difference in underlying population trends for several species, particularly within the Northwestern Interior Forest BCR. The combined analysis highlights the importance of considering population structure, physiographic barriers, and spatial heterogeneity in habitat change when assessing patterns of population change across a landscape as broad as Alaska. Combined analysis of roadside and off-road survey data in a hierarchical framework may be particularly useful for evaluating patterns of population change in relatively undeveloped regions with sparse roadside BBS coverage.

Condor↗

USGS2002

Hierarchical modeling of population stability and species group attributes from survey data

Many ecological studies require analysis of collections of estimates. For example, population change is routinely estimated for many species from surveys such as the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS), and the species are grouped and used in comparative analyses. We developed a hierarchical model for estimation of group attributes from a collection of estimates of population trend. The model uses information from predefined groups of species to provide a context and to supplement data for individual species; summaries of group attributes are improved by statistical methods that simultaneously analyze collections of trend estimates. The model is Bayesian; trends are treated as random variables rather than fixed parameters. We use Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to fit the model. Standard assessments of population stability cannot distinguish magnitude of trend and statistical significance of trend estimates, but the hierarchical model allows us to legitimately describe the probability that a trend is within given bounds. Thus we define population stability in terms of the probability that the magnitude of population change for a species is less than or equal to a predefined threshold. We applied the model to estimates of trend for 399 species from the BBS to estimate the proportion of species with increasing populations and to identify species with unstable populations. Analyses are presented for the collection of all species and for 12 species groups commonly used in BBS summaries. Overall, we estimated that 49% of species in the BBS have positive trends and 33 species have unstable populations. However, the proportion of species with increasing trends differs among habitat groups, with grassland birds having only 19% of species with positive trend estimates and wetland birds having 68% of species with positive trend estimates.

Ecology↗