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At least 1,603 records · Page 89Linked to original sources
USGS2014

Physiological and ecological effects of increasing temperature on fish production in lakes of Arctic Alaska

Lake ecosystems in the Arctic are changing rapidly due to climate warming. Lakes are sensitive integrators of climate-induced changes and prominent features across the Arctic landscape, especially in lowland permafrost regions such as the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska. Despite many studies on the implications of climate warming, how fish populations will respond to lake changes is uncertain for Arctic ecosystems. Least Cisco (Coregonus sardinella) is a bellwether for Arctic lakes as an important consumer and prey resource. To explore the consequences of climate warming, we used a bioenergetics model to simulate changes in Least Cisco production under future climate scenarios for lakes on the Arctic Coastal Plain. First, we used current temperatures to fit Least Cisco consumption to observed annual growth. We then estimated growth, holding food availability, and then feeding rate constant, for future projections of temperature. Projected warmer water temperatures resulted in reduced Least Cisco production, especially for larger size classes, when food availability was held constant. While holding feeding rate constant, production of Least Cisco increased under all future scenarios with progressively more growth in warmer temperatures. Higher variability occurred with longer projections of time mirroring the expanding uncertainty in climate predictions further into the future. In addition to direct temperature effects on Least Cisco growth, we also considered changes in lake ice phenology and prey resources for Least Cisco. A shorter period of ice cover resulted in increased production, similar to warming temperatures. Altering prey quality had a larger effect on fish production in summer than winter and increased relative growth of younger rather than older age classes of Least Cisco. Overall, we predicted increased production of Least Cisco due to climate warming in lakes of Arctic Alaska. Understanding the implications of increased production of Least Cisco to the entire food web will be necessary to predict ecosystem responses in lakes of the Arctic.

Alaska↗
USGS2024

Invasive-dominated grasslands in Hawaiʻi are resilient to disturbance

Non-native-dominated landscapes may arise from invasion by competitive plant species, disturbance and invasion of early-colonizing species, or some combination of these. Without knowing site history, however, it is difficult to predict how native or non-native communities will reassemble after disturbance events. Given increasing disturbance levels across anthropogenically impacted landscapes, predictive understanding of these patterns is important. We asked how disturbance affected community assembly in six invaded habitat types common in dryland, grazed landscapes on Island of Hawai‘i. We mechanically disturbed 100 m 2 plots in six vegetation types dominated by one of four invasive perennial grasses ( Cenchrus ciliaris , Cenchrus clandestinus , Cenchrus setaceus , or Melinis repens ), a native shrub ( Dodonaea viscosa ), or a native perennial bunchgrass ( Eragrostis atropioides ). We censused vegetation before disturbance and monitored woody plant colonization and herbaceous cover for 21 months following the disturbance, categorizing species as competitors, colonizers, or a combination, based on recovery patterns. In addition, we planted individuals of the native shrub and bunchgrass and monitored survival to overcome dispersal limitation of native species when exploring these patterns. We found that the dominant vegetation types showed variation in post-disturbance syndrome, and that the variation in colonizer versus competitor syndrome occurred both between species, but also within species among different vegetation types. Although there were flushes of native shrub seedlings, these did not survive to 21 months within invaded habitats, probably due to regrowth by competitive invasive grasses. Similarly, survival of planted native individuals was related to the rate of regrowth by dominant species. Regardless of colonization/competitor syndrome, however, all dominant vegetation types were relatively resilient to change. Our results highlight that the altered post-agricultural, invaded grassland landscapes in Hawaiʻi are stable states. More generally, they point to the importance of resident communities and their effects on species interactions and seed availability in shaping plant community response to disturbance.

Hawaii↗
USGS2016

A goodness-of-fit test for occupancy models with correlated within-season revisits

Occupancy modeling is important for exploring species distribution patterns and for conservation monitoring. Within this framework, explicit attention is given to species detection probabilities estimated from replicate surveys to sample units. A central assumption is that replicate surveys are independent Bernoulli trials, but this assumption becomes untenable when ecologists serially deploy remote cameras and acoustic recording devices over days and weeks to survey rare and elusive animals. Proposed solutions involve modifying the detection-level component of the model (e.g., first-order Markov covariate). Evaluating whether a model sufficiently accounts for correlation is imperative, but clear guidance for practitioners is lacking. Currently, an omnibus goodnessof- fit test using a chi-square discrepancy measure on unique detection histories is available for occupancy models (MacKenzie and Bailey, Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics, 9, 2004, 300; hereafter, MacKenzie– Bailey test). We propose a join count summary measure adapted from spatial statistics to directly assess correlation after fitting a model. We motivate our work with a dataset of multinight bat call recordings from a pilot study for the North American Bat Monitoring Program. We found in simulations that our join count test was more reliable than the MacKenzie–Bailey test for detecting inadequacy of a model that assumed independence, particularly when serial correlation was low to moderate. A model that included a Markov-structured detection-level covariate produced unbiased occupancy estimates except in the presence of strong serial correlation and a revisit design consisting only of temporal replicates. When applied to two common bat species, our approach illustrates that sophisticated models do not guarantee adequate fit to real data, underscoring the importance of model assessment. Our join count test provides a widely applicable goodness-of-fit test and specifically evaluates occupancy model lack of fit related to correlation among detections within a sample unit. Our diagnostic tool is available for practitioners that serially deploy survey equipment as a way to achieve cost savings.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2017

Similarity of plant functional traits and aggregation pattern in a subtropical forest

The distribution of species and communities in relation to environmental heterogeneity is a central focus in ecology. Co-occurrence of species with similar functional traits is an indication that communities are determined in part by environmental filters. However, few studies have been designed to test how functional traits are selectively filtered by environmental conditions at local scales. Exploring the relationship between soil characteristics and plant traits is a step toward understanding the filtering hypothesis in determining plant distribution at local scale. Toward this end, we mapped all individual trees (diameter >1 cm) in a one-ha subtropical forest of China in 2007 and 2015. We measured topographic and detailed soil properties within the field site, as well as plant leaf functional traits and demographic rates of the seven most common tree species. A second one-ha study plot was established in 2015, to test and validate the general patterns that were drawn from first plot. We found that variation in species distribution at local scale can be explained by soil heterogeneity and plant functional traits. (From first plot). (1) Species dominant in habitats with high soil ammonium nitrogen and total phosphorus tended to have high specific leaf area (SLA) and relative growth rate (RGR). (2) Species dominant in low-fertility habitats tended to have high leaf dry matter content (LDMC), ratio of chlorophyll a and b (ratioab), and leaf thickness (LT). The hypothesis that functional traits are selected in part by environmental filters and determine plant distribution at local scale was confirmed by the data of the first plot and a second regional site showed similar species distribution patterns.

Zhejiang Province↗
USGS2017

Life history constraints explain negative relationship between fish productivity and dissolved organic carbon in lakes

Resource availability constrains the life history strategies available to organisms and may thereby limit population growth rates and productivity. We used this conceptual framework to explore the mechanisms driving recently reported negative relationships between fish productivity and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations in lakes. We studied populations of bluegill ( Lepomis macrochirus ) in a set of lakes with DOC concentrations ranging from 3 to 24 mg/L; previous work has demonstrated that primary and secondary productivity of food webs is negatively related to DOC concentration across this gradient. For each population, we quantified individual growth rate, age at maturity, age‐specific fecundity, maximum age, length‐weight and length‐egg size relationships, and other life history characteristics. We observed a strong negative relationship between maximum size and DOC concentration; for instance, fish reached masses of 150 to 260 g in low‐DOC lakes but <120 g in high‐DOC lakes. Relationships between fecundity and length, and between egg size and length, were constant across the DOC gradient. Because fish in high‐DOC lakes reached smaller sizes but had similar fecundity and egg size at a given size, their total lifetime fecundity was as much as two orders of magnitude lower than fish in low‐DOC lakes. High DOC concentrations appeared to constrain the range of bluegill life history strategies available; populations in high‐DOC lakes always had low initial growth rates and high ages at maturity, whereas populations in low‐DOC showed higher variability in these traits. This was also the case for the intrinsic rates of natural increase of these populations, which were always low at the high end of the DOC gradient. The potentially lower capacity for fish populations in high‐DOC lakes to recover from exploitation has clear implications for the sustainable management of recreational fisheries in the face of considerable spatial heterogeneity and ongoing temporal change in lake DOC concentrations.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2017

Assessing the potential of translocating vulnerable forest birds by searching for novel and enduring climatic ranges

Hawaiian forest birds are imperiled, with fewer than half the original >40 species remaining extant. Recent studies document ongoing rapid population decline and pro- ject complete climate-based range losses for the critically endangered Kaua’i endemics ‘akeke’e (Loxops caeruleirostris) and ‘akikiki (Oreomystis bairdi) by end-of-century due to projected warming. Climate change facilitates the upward expansion of avian malaria into native high elevation forests where disease was historically absent. While intensi- fied conservation efforts attempt to safeguard these species and their habitats, the magnitude of potential loss and the urgency of this situation require all conservation options to be seriously considered. One option for Kaua’i endemics is translocation to islands with higher elevation habitats. We explored the feasibility of interisland translocation by projecting baseline and future climate-based ranges of ‘akeke’e and ‘akikiki across the Hawaiian archipelago. For islands where compatible climates for these spe- cies were projected to endure through end-of-century, an additional climatic niche overlap analysis compares the spatial overlap between Kaua’i endemics and current native species on prospective destination islands. Suitable climate-based ranges exist on Maui and Hawai’i for these Kaua’i endemics that offer climatically distinct areas compared to niche distributions of destination island endemics. While we recognize that any decision to translocate birds will include assessing numerous additional social, political, and biological factors, our focus on locations of enduring and ecologically compatible climate-based ranges represents the first step to evaluate this potential conservation option. Our approach considering baseline and future distributions of species with climatic niche overlap metrics to identify undesirable range overlap provides a method that can be utilized for other climate-vulnerable species with disjointed compatible environments beyond their native range.

Hawaii↗
USGS2017

Parasite spillover: Indirect effects of invasive Burmese pythons

Identification of the origin of parasites of nonindigenous species (NIS) can be complex. NIS may introduce parasites from their native range and acquire parasites from within their invaded range. Determination of whether parasites are non-native or native can be complicated when parasite genera occur within both the NIS’ native range and its introduced range. We explored potential for spillover and spillback of lung parasites infecting Burmese pythons ( Python bivittatus ) in their invasive range (Florida). We collected 498 indigenous snakes of 26 species and 805 Burmese pythons during 2004–2016 and examined them for lung parasites. We used morphology to identify three genera of pentastome parasites, Raillietiella , a cosmopolitan form, and Porocephalus and Kiricephalus , both New World forms. We sequenced these parasites at one mitochondrial and one nuclear locus and showed that each genus is represented by a single species, R. orientalis , P. crotali , and K. coarctatus . Pythons are host to R. orientalis and P. crotali , but not K. coarctatus ; native snakes are host to all three species. Sequence data show that pythons introduced R. orientalis to North America, where this parasite now infects native snakes. Additionally, our data suggest that pythons are competent hosts to P. crotali , a widespread parasite native to North and South America that was previously hypothesized to infect only viperid snakes. Our results indicate invasive Burmese pythons have affected parasite-host dynamics of native snakes in ways that are consistent with parasite spillover and demonstrate the potential for indirect effects during invasions. Additionally, we show that pythons have acquired a parasite native to their introduced range, which is the initial condition necessary for parasite spillback.

Florida↗
USGS2017

Design- and model-based recommendations for detecting and quantifying an amphibian pathogen in environmental samples

Accurate pathogen detection is essential for developing management strategies to address emerging infectious diseases, an increasingly prominent threat to wildlife. Sampling for free-living pathogens outside of their hosts has benefits for inference and study efficiency, but is still uncommon. We used a laboratory experiment to evaluate the influences of pathogen concentration, water type, and qPCR inhibitors on the detection and quantification of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis ( Bd ) using water filtration. We compared results pre- and post-inhibitor removal, and assessed inferential differences when single versus multiple samples were collected across space or time. We found that qPCR inhibition influenced both Bd detection and quantification in natural water samples, resulting in biased inferences about Bd occurrence and abundance. Biases in occurrence could be mitigated by collecting multiple samples in space or time, but biases in Bd quantification were persistent. Differences in Bd concentration resulted in variation in detection probability, indicating that occupancy modeling could be used to explore factors influencing heterogeneity in Bd abundance among samples, sites, or over time. Our work will influence the design of studies involving amphibian disease dynamics and studies utilizing environmental DNA (eDNA) to understand species distributions.

Ecolology and Evolution↗
USGS2018

Improving geographically extensive acoustic survey designs for modeling species occurrence with imperfect detection and misidentification

Acoustic recording units (ARUs) enable geographically extensive surveys of sensitive and elusive species. However, a hidden cost of using ARU data for modeling species occupancy is that prohibitive amounts of human verification may be required to correct species identifications made from automated software. Bat acoustic studies exemplify this challenge because large volumes of echolocation calls could be recorded and automatically classified to species. The standard occupancy model requires aggregating verified recordings to construct confirmed detection/non‐detection datasets. The multistep data processing workflow is not necessarily transparent nor consistent among studies. We share a workflow diagramming strategy that could provide coherency among practitioners. A false‐positive occupancy model is explored that accounts for misclassification errors and enables potential reduction in the number of confirmed detections. Simulations informed by real data were used to evaluate how much confirmation effort could be reduced without sacrificing site occupancy and detection error estimator bias and precision. We found even under a 50% reduction in total confirmation effort, estimator properties were reasonable for our assumed survey design, species‐specific parameter values, and desired precision. For transferability, a fully documented r package, OCacoustic, for implementing a false‐positive occupancy model is provided. Practitioners can apply OCacoustic to optimize their own study design (required sample sizes, number of visits, and confirmation scenarios) for properly implementing a false‐positive occupancy model with bat or other wildlife acoustic data. Additionally, our work highlights the importance of clearly defining research objectives and data processing strategies at the outset to align the study design with desired statistical inferences.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2019

Genomic pedigree reconstruction identifies predictors of mating and reproductive success in an invasive vertebrate

The persistence of an invasive species is influenced by its reproductive ecology, and a successful control program must operate on this premise. However, the reproductive ecology of invasive species may be enigmatic due to factors that also limit their management, such as cryptic coloration and behavior. We explored the mating and reproductive ecology of the invasive Brown Treesnake (BTS : Boiga irregularis ) by reconstructing a multigenerational genomic pedigree based on 654 single nucleotide polymorphisms for a geographically closed population established in 2004 on Guam ( N = 426). The pedigree allowed annual estimates of individual mating and reproductive success to be inferred for snakes in the study population over a 14‐year period. We then employed generalized linear mixed models to gauge how well phenotypic and genomic data could predict sex‐specific annual mating and reproductive success. Average snout–vent length (SVL), average body condition index (BCI), and trappability were significantly related to annual mating success for males, with average SVL also related to annual mating success for females. Male and female annual reproductive success was positively affected by SVL, BCI, and trappability. Surprisingly, the degree to which individuals were inbred had no effect on annual mating or reproductive success. When juxtaposed with current control methods, these results indicate that baited traps, a common interdiction tool, may target fecund BTS in some regards but not others. Our study emphasizes the importance of reproductive ecology as a focus for improving BTS control and promotes genomic pedigree reconstruction for such an endeavor in this invasive species and others.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2019

Alternative stable states in inherently unstable systems

Alternative stable states are nontransitory states within which communities can exist. However, even highly dynamic communities can be viewed within the framework of stable‐state theory if an appropriate “ecologically relevant” time scale is identified. The ecologically relevant time scale for dynamic systems needs to conform to the amount of time needed for a system's community to complete an entire cycle through its normal range of variation. For some systems, the ecologically relevant period can be relatively short (eg, tidal systems), for others it can be decadal (eg, prairie wetlands). We explore the concept of alternative stable states in unstable systems using the highly dynamic wetland ecosystems of North America's Prairie Pothole Region. The communities in these wetland ecosystems transition through multiple states in response to decadal‐long climate oscillations that cyclically influence ponded‐water depth, permanence, and chemistry. The perspective gained by considering dynamic systems in the context of stable‐state theory allows for an increased understanding of how these systems respond to changing drivers that can push them past tipping points into alternative states. Incorporation of concepts inherent to stable‐state theory has been suggested as a key scientific element upon which to base sustainable environmental management.

Alberta, Iowa, Manitoba, Minnesota, Montana, North↗
USGS2020

RAPTURE (RAD capture) panel facilitates analyses characterizing sea lamprey reproductive ecology and movement dynamics

Genomic tools are lacking for invasive and native populations of sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ). Our objective was to discover single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) loci to conduct pedigree analyses to quantify reproductive contributions of adult sea lampreys and dispersion of sibling larval sea lampreys of different ages in Great Lakes tributaries. Additional applications of data were explored using additional geographically expansive samples. We used restriction site‐associated DNA sequencing (RAD‐Seq) to discover genetic variation in Duffins Creek (DC), Ontario, Canada, and the St. Clair River (SCR), Michigan, USA. We subsequently developed RAD capture baits to genotype 3,446 RAD loci that contained 11,970 SNPs. Based on RAD capture assays, estimates of variance in SNP allele frequency among five Great Lakes tributary populations (mean F ST 0.008; range 0.00–0.018) were concordant with previous microsatellite‐based studies; however, outlier loci were identified that contributed substantially to spatial population genetic structure. At finer scales within streams, simulations indicated that accuracy in genetic pedigree reconstruction was high when 200 or 500 independent loci were used, even in situations of high spawner abundance (e.g., 1,000 adults). Based on empirical collections of larval sea lamprey genotypes, we found that age‐1 and age‐2 families of full and half‐siblings were widely but nonrandomly distributed within stream reaches sampled. Using the genomic scale set of SNP loci developed in this study, biologists can rapidly genotype sea lamprey in non‐native and native ranges to investigate questions pertaining to population structuring and reproductive ecology at previously unattainable scales.

Michigan, Ontario, Wisconsin↗
USGS2020

Paleo-metagenomics of North American fossil packrat middens: Past biodiversity revealed by ancient DNA

Fossil rodent middens are powerful tools in paleoecology. In arid parts of western North America, packrat ( Neotoma spp.) middens preserve plant and animal remains for tens of thousands of years. Midden contents are so well preserved that fragments of endogenous ancient DNA (aDNA) can be extracted and analyzed across millennia. Here, we explore the use of shotgun metagenomics to study the aDNA obtained from packrat middens up to 32,000 C 14 years old. Eleven Illumina HiSeq 2500 libraries were successfully sequenced, and between 0.11% and 6.7% of reads were classified using Centrifuge against the NCBI “nt” database. Eukaryotic taxa identified belonged primarily to vascular plants with smaller proportions mapping to ascomycete fungi, arthropods, chordates, and nematodes. Plant taxonomic diversity in the middens is shown to change through time and tracks changes in assemblages determined by morphological examination of the plant remains. Amplicon sequencing of ITS2 and rbcL provided minimal data for some middens, but failed at amplifying the highly fragmented DNA present in others. With repeated sampling and deep sequencing, analysis of packrat midden aDNA from well-preserved midden material can provide highly detailed characterizations of past communities of plants, animals, bacteria, and fungi present as trace DNA fossils. The prospects for gaining more paleoecological insights from aDNA for rodent middens will continue to improve with optimization of laboratory methods, decreasing sequencing costs, and increasing computational power.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2020

Using a structured decision analysis to evaluate bald eagle vital signs monitoring in Southwest Alaska National Parks

1. Monitoring programs can benefit from an adaptive monitoring approach, where key decisions about why, where, what, and how to monitor are revisited periodically in order to ensure programmatic relevancy. 2. The National Park Service (NPS) monitors status and trends of Vital Signs to evaluate compliance with the NPS mission. Although abundant, The Southwest Alaska Network (SWAN) monitors bald eagles because of their inherent importance to park visitors and role as an important ecological indicator. Our goal is to identify an optimal monitoring program that may be standardized among participating parks. 3. We gathered an expert panel of scientists and managers, and implemented a Delphi Process to gather information about the bald eagle monitoring program. Panelists generated a list of means objectives for the monitoring program: minimizing cost, minimizing effort, maximizing the ability to detect change in bald eagle populations, and maximizing the amount of accurate information collected about bald eagles. 4. We used a swing-weighting technique to assign importance to each objective. Collecting accurate information about bald eagles was considered the most important means objective. 5. Combining panelist-generated information with objective importance, we analyzed the scenarios and defined the optimal decision using linear value modeling. Through our analysis, we found that a “Comprehensive” monitoring scenario, comprised of all feasible monitoring metrics is the optimal monitoring scenario. Even with greatly increased cost, the Comprehensive monitoring scenario remains the best solution. 6. We suggest further exploration of the cost and effort required for the Comprehensive scenario, to determine if it is in the parks’ best interest to begin monitoring additional metrics.

Alaska↗
USGS2024

The role of geography, diet, and host phylogeny on the gut microbiome in the Hawaiian honeycreeper radiation

The animal gut microbiome can have a strong influence on the health, fitness, and behavior of its hosts. The composition of the gut microbial community can be influenced by factors such as diet, environment, and evolutionary history (phylosymbiosis). However, the relative influence of these factors is unknown in most bird species. Furthermore, phylosymbiosis studies have largely focused on clades that diverged tens of millions of years ago, and little is known about the degree of gut microbiome divergence in more recent species radiations. This study explores the drivers of microbiome variation across the unique and recent Hawaiian honeycreeper radiation (Fringillidae: Drepanidinae). Fecal samples were collected from 14 extant species spanning the main islands of the Hawaiian archipelago and were sequenced using three metabarcoding markers to characterize the gut microbiome, invertebrate diet, and plant diet of Hawaiian honeycreepers. We then used these metabarcoding data and the honeycreeper host phylogeny to evaluate their relative roles in shaping the gut microbiome. Microbiome variation across birds was highly individualized; however, source island had a small but significant effect on microbiome structure. The microbiomes did not recapitulate the host phylogenetic tree, indicating that evolutionary history does not strongly influence microbiome structure in the honeycreeper clade. These results expand our understanding of the roles of diet, geography, and phylogeny on avian microbiome structure, while also providing important ecological information about the diet and gut microbiota of wild Hawaiian honeycreepers.

Hawaii↗
USGS2025

Balancing monitoring and management in the adaptive management of an invasive species

Efficient allocation of managers' limited resources is necessary to effectively control invasive species, but determining how to allocate effort between monitoring and management over space and time remains a challenge. In an adaptive management context, monitoring data are key for gaining knowledge and iteratively improving management, but monitoring costs money. Community science or other opportunistic monitoring data present an opportunity for managers to gain critical knowledge without a substantial reduction in management funds. We designed a management strategy evaluation to investigate optimal spatial allocation of resources to monitoring and management, while also exploring the potential for community science data to improve decision-making, using adaptive management of invasive flowering rush ( Butomus umbellatus ) in the Columbia River, USA, as a case study. We evaluated management and monitoring alternatives under two invasion conditions, a well-established invasion and an emerging invasion, for both risk-neutral and risk-averse decision makers. Simulations revealed that regardless of invasion condition or managers' risk tolerance, allocating effort outward from the estimated center of invasion ( Epicenter prioritization) resulted in the lowest overall level of infestation at the end of management. This allocation outperformed alternatives in which management occurred in fixed areas ( Linear prioritization) and alternatives that targeted patchily distributed areas with the highest estimated infestation level of the invasive species ( High invasion prioritization). Additionally, management outcomes improved when more resources were allocated toward removal effort than monitoring effort, and the addition of community science data improved outcomes only under certain scenarios. Finally, actions that led to the best outcomes often did not produce the most accurate and precise estimates of parameters describing system function, emphasizing the importance of using value of information principles to guide monitoring. Our adaptive management approach is adaptable to many invasive species management contexts in which ongoing monitoring allows management strategies to be updated over time.

Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2025

Interpreting a sudden population decline in a long-lived species (Malaclemys terrapin rhizophorarum)

Long-term ecological studies are critical for providing insight into population dynamics and detecting population declines, particularly for species of conservation concern. However, spatiotemporal variation and logistical challenges make the identification of sudden population declines difficult. We conducted an in-water capture-mark-recapture study of mangrove diamond-backed terrapins ( Malaclemys terrapin rhizophorarum ) within Big Sable Creek, in Everglades National Park, Florida. We used an 18-year dataset (2001 to 2019) incorporating year, sex, hurricane occurrence, and sampling effort to estimate survival using Cormack–Jolly–Seber (CJS) models in Program Mark. Annual survivorship estimates were high from 2001 to 2003 for both sexes (91%–96%) and variable from 2006 to 2014 (77%–92%). Beginning in 2015, survival estimates exhibited a steeper decline (females: 65%, males 75%), and dropped to below 36% by 2018. Because the driver of this apparent population decline is unknown, we created a population projection matrix and used model-estimated annual survival to simulate annual terrapin population size. We then generated competing scenarios of low survival at various age classes to attempt to reproduce a simulated decline mirroring what we observed from our capture data. A scenario of low adult survival (75%–85%) from 2012 to 2018, possibly in conjunction with no reproduction after 2010, provides estimates of abundance that appear to match simulated annual population size and may indicate that adult emigration/human removal or a drastic drop in recruitment could be responsible for the apparent decline in survival. We explore reasons for this apparent decline and highlight difficulties common to long-term studies that may influence how declines are interpreted.

Florida↗
USGS2021

Genomic association with pathogen carriage in bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis)

Genetic composition can influence host susceptibility to, and transmission of, pathogens, with potential population‐level consequences. In bighorn sheep ( Ovis canadensis ), pneumonia epidemics caused by Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae have been associated with severe population declines and limited recovery across North America. Adult survivors either clear the infection or act as carriers that continually shed M. ovipneumoniae and expose their susceptible offspring, resulting in high rates of lamb mortality for years following the outbreak event. Here, we investigated the influence of genomic composition on persistent carriage of M. ovipneumoniae in a well‐studied bighorn sheep herd in the Wallowa Mountains of Oregon, USA. Using 10,605 SNPs generated using RADseq technology for 25 female bighorn sheep, we assessed genomic diversity metrics and employed family‐based genome‐wide association methodologies to understand variant association and genetic architecture underlying chronic carriage. We observed no differences among genome‐wide diversity metrics (heterozygosity and allelic richness) between groups. However, we identified two variant loci of interest and seven associated candidate genes, which may influence carriage status. Further, we found that the SNP panel explained ~55% of the phenotypic variance (SNP‐based heritability) for M. ovipneumoniae carriage, though there was considerable uncertainty in these estimates. While small sample sizes limit conclusions drawn here, our study represents one of the first to assess the genomic factors influencing chronic carriage of a pathogen in a wild population and lays a foundation for understanding genomic influence on pathogen persistence in bighorn sheep and other wildlife populations. Future research should incorporate additional individuals as well as distinct herds to further explore the genomic basis of chronic carriage.

Oregon↗