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Measuring polar bear health using allostatic load

The southern Beaufort Sea polar bear sub-population ( Ursus maritimus ) has been adversely affected by climate change and loss of sea ice habitat. Even though the sub-population is likely decreasing, it remains difficult to link individual polar bear health and physiological change to sub-population effects. We developed an index of allostatic load, which represents potential physiological dysregulation. The allostatic load index included blood- and hair-based analytes measured in physically captured southern Beaufort bears in spring. We examined allostatic load in relation to bear body condition, age, terrestrial habitat use and, over time, for bear demographic groups. Overall, allostatic load had no relationship with body condition. However, allostatic load was higher in adult females without cubs that used terrestrial habitats the prior year, indicating potential physiological dysregulation with land use. Allostatic load declined with age in adult females without cubs. Sub-adult males demonstrated decreased allostatic load over time. Our study is one of the first attempts to develop a health scoring system for free-ranging polar bears, and our findings highlight the complexity of using allostatic load as an index of health in a wild species. Establishing links between individual bear health and population dynamics is important for advancing conservation efforts.

Alaska↗

The transition from resistance to acceptance: Managing a marine invasive species in a changing world

Marine invasive species can transform coastal ecosystems, yet mitigating their effects can be difficult, and even impractical. Often, marine invasive species are managed at poorly matched spatial scales, and at the same time, rates of spread and establishment are increasing under climate change and can outpace resources available for population suppression. These circumstances challenge traditional conservation goals of maintaining a historic environmental state, especially for a species like the European green crab ( Carcinus maenas ), a formidable invader with few examples of successful long-term removal programs. A management paradigm where decision alternatives include resisting or accepting a new ecological trajectory may be needed. We apply mathematical concepts from decision theory to develop a quantitative framework for navigating management decisions in this new resist-accept paradigm. We develop a model of European green crab growth, removal and colonization, and we find optimal levels of removal effort that minimize both ecological change and removal cost. We establish a benchmark of colonization pressure at which green crab density becomes decoupled from a decision maker's actions, such that population control can no longer shape the invasion trajectory. For informing the decision boundary between resistance and acceptance, our results highlight that a decision maker's understanding of how removal cost scales with removal effort is more important than understanding the density-impact relationship. We show that assuming stationary system dynamics can result in sub-optimal levels of species removal effort, highlighting the importance of developing anticipatory management strategies by accounting for non-stationary dynamics. Policy implications . For marine invasive species that can disperse across long distances and recolonize rapidly after removal, the focus of conservation policy should shift away from understanding how to resist change to understanding when to stop resisting change. Navigating this decision problem involves trade-offs among competing objectives, highlighting the need for structured approaches to elicit objective weights that reflect the values of the decision maker. For natural resource managers facing possible ecosystem transformation, this decision framework can enable proactive and strategic decisions made under uncertainty in a changing world.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

A century of ocean warming on Florida Keys coral reefs: historic in situ observations

There is strong evidence that global climate change over the last several decades has caused shifts in species distributions, species extinctions, and alterations in the functioning of ecosystems. However, because of high variability on short (i.e., diurnal, seasonal, and annual) timescales as well as the recency of a comprehensive instrumental record, it is difficult to detect or provide evidence for long-term, site-specific trends in ocean temperature. Here we analyze five in situ datasets from Florida Keys coral reef habitats, including historic measurements taken by lighthouse keepers, to provide three independent lines of evidence supporting approximately 0.8 °C of warming in sea surface temperature (SST) over the last century. Results indicate that the warming observed in the records between 1878 and 2012 can be fully accounted for by the warming observed in recent decades (from 1975 to 2007), documented using in situ thermographs on a mid-shore patch reef. The magnitude of warming revealed here is similar to that found in other SST datasets from the region and to that observed in global mean surface temperature. The geologic context and significance of recent ocean warming to coral growth and population dynamics are discussed, as is the future prognosis for the Florida reef tract.

Florida↗

Water color affects the stratification, surface temperature, heat content, and mean epilimnetic irradiance of small lakes

The effects of water color on lake stratification, mean epilimnetic irradiance, and lake temperature dynamics were examined in small, north-temperate lakes that differed widely in water color (1.5-19.8 m -1). Among these lakes, colored lakes differed from clear lakes in the following ways: (i) the epilimnia were shallower and colder, and mean epilimnetic irradiance was reduced; (ii) the diel temperature cycles were more pronounced; (iii) whole-lake heat accumulation during stratification was reduced. The depth of the epilimnion ranged from 2.5 m in the clearest lake to 0.75 m in the most colored lake, and 91% of the variation in epilimnetic depth was explained by water color. Summer mean morning epilimnetic temperature was ???2??C cooler in the most colored lake compared with the clearest lake. In clear lakes, the diel temperature range (1.4 ?? 0.7??C) was significantly (p = 0.01) less than that in the most colored lake (2.1 ?? 1.0??C). Change in whole-lake heat content was negatively correlated with water color. Increasing water color decreased light penetration more than thermocline depth, leading to reduced mean epilimnetic irradiance in the colored lakes. Thus, in these small lakes, water color significantly affected temperature, thermocline depth, and light climate. ?? 2006 NRC.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗

California State Waters Map Series — Offshore of Tomales Point, California

In 2007, the California Ocean Protection Council initiated the California Seafloor Mapping Program (CSMP), designed to create a comprehensive seafloor map of high-resolution bathymetry, marine benthic habitats, and geology within the 3-nautical-mile limit of California’s State Waters. The CSMP approach is to create highly detailed seafloor maps through collection, integration, interpretation, and visualization of swath sonar data, acoustic backscatter, seafloor video, seafloor photography, high-resolution seismic-reflection profiles, and bottom-sediment sampling data. The map products display seafloor morphology and character, identify potential marine benthic habitats, and illustrate both the surficial seafloor geology and shallow (to about 200 m) subsurface geology. Tomales Bay, approximately 20-km long and 1- to 2-km wide, formed along a submerged portion of the San Andreas Fault, which forms a right-lateral transform boundary between the North American and Pacific tectonic plates. The fault juxtaposes Cretaceous granitic rock to the southwest (exposed on Tomales Point) with the Jurassic and Cretaceous Franciscan Complex to the northeast (exposed on the northeast coast of the Tomales Bay), and has an estimated slip rate of about 17 to 30 mm/yr in this area. The destructive great 1906 California earthquake (M7.8, 4/18/1906) is thought to have nucleated on the San Andreas Fault about 60 km to the south, offshore of San Francisco, with the rupture extending northward through Tomales Bay and for an additional about 230 km to the south flank of Cape Mendocino. The northwest coast of Tomales Point is characterized by steep, high (as much as 100 m), barren, granitic cliffs and a rugged shoreline with a few small pocket beaches. There has been as much as 48 m of Tomales Point cliff retreat from 1929–30 to 2002. The granite is overlain by less resistant Tertiary sandstones at Kehoe Beach, the northern end of a continuous, wide, sandy beach backed by a large coastal dune field that extends for about 20 km south to Point Reyes Head. This long beach has a mixed history of accretion and retreat since the late 1800s. Tomales Point relief is asymmetrical so that most small coastal watersheds in the map area drain eastward from Inverness Ridge into Tomales Bay. Many of these steep drainages have small sandy beaches at their mouths. The east coast of Tomales Bay is characterized by more gentle, hummocky, hilly relief underlain by the landslide-prone Franciscan Complex. Keys Creek, the most prominent small watershed entering Tomales Bay from the east, has a small subaqueous delta at its mouth. Central Tomales Bay is relatively flat and underlain by fine sand and silt. The mouth of Tomales Bay is characterized by sand waves, dunes, and flats that have formed in response to strong tidal flow. Sand Point and Dillon Beach are located at the mouth of Tomales Bay and on the southeasternmost shores of Bodega Bay, respectively. The wide beach in this area is backed by an extensive (4.8 km 2 ) sand-dune complex. The enormous volume of sand on the beach and in the dune field is derived from southward littoral drift. This sediment is trapped by Tomales Bay and Tomales Point, which function as the south end of the Bodega Bay littoral cell. The continental shelf in California’s State Waters in the Offshore of Tomales Point map area extends to water depths of about 70 m (mean slope of about 0.7°) and is characterized by extensive, rugged, rocky seafloor. Granitic seafloor has a massive and fractured texture, whereas seafloor sedimentary rock outcrops commonly form distinctive “ribs” created by differential seafloor erosion of dipping beds of variable resistance. Direct sediment supply to this shelf is minimal because littoral drift is blocked to the north by Tomales Bay and Tomales Point, and to the south by the Point Reyes headland. Circulation over the continental shelf in the map area (and in the broader northern California region) is dominated by the southward-flowing California Current, the eastern limb of the North Pacific Gyre. Associated upwelling brings cool, nutrient-rich waters to the surface, resulting in high biological productivity. The current flow generally is southeastward during the spring and summer; however, during the fall and winter, the otherwise persistent northwest winds are sometimes weak or absent, causing the California Current to move farther offshore and the Davidson Current, a weaker, northward-flowing countercurrent, to become active. As a result, net flow over the continental shelf can be more southerly during the spring and summer and more northerly during the fall and winter. Throughout the year, this part of the central California coast is exposed to four wave climate regimes—the north Pacific swell, the southern swell, northwest wind waves, and local wind waves. The north Pacific swell dominates in winter months (typically November through March), with wave heights at offshore buoys ranging from 2 to 10 m and wave periods ranging from 10 to 25 s. During summer months, the largest waves come from the southern swell, generated by storms in the south Pacific and offshore Central America. Characteristically, these swells have smaller wave heights (0.3 to 3 m) and similarly long periods (range 10 to 25 s). Northwest wind waves affect the coast throughout the year, while local wind waves are most common from October to April. These two wind-wave regimes typically have wave heights of 1 to 4 m and short periods (3 to 10 s). Potential marine benthic habitats in the Offshore of Tomales Point map area range from unconsolidated continental-shelf sediment, to rocky continental-shelf substrate, to unconsolidated estuary sediments. Rocky-shelf outcrops and rubble are considered to be promising potential habitats for rockfish and lingcod, both of which are recreationally and commercially important species. Dynamic bedforms, such as the sand waves at the mouth of Tomales Bay, are considered potential foraging habitat for juvenile lingcod and possibly migratory fishes, as well as for forage fish such as Pacific sand lance.

California↗

Long-term patterns and short-term dynamics of stream solutes and suspended sediment in a rapidly weathering tropical watershed

The 326 ha Río Icacos watershed in the tropical wet forest of the Luquillo Mountains, northeastern Puerto Rico, is underlain by granodiorite bedrock with weathering rates among the highest in the world. We pooled stream chemistry and total suspended sediment (TSS) data sets from three discrete periods: 1983–1987, 1991–1997, and 2000–2008. During this period three major hurricanes crossed the site: Hugo in 1989, Hortense in 1996, and Georges in 1998. Stream chemistry reflects sea salt inputs (Na, Cl, and SO 4 ), and high weathering rates of the granodiorite (Ca, Mg, Si, and alkalinity). During rainfall, stream composition shifts toward that of precipitation, diluting 90% or more in the largest storms, but maintains a biogeochemical watershed signal marked by elevated K and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration. DOC exhibits an unusual “boomerang” pattern, initially increasing with flow but then decreasing at the highest flows as it becomes depleted and/or vigorous overland flow minimizes contact with watershed surfaces. TSS increased markedly with discharge (power function slope 1.54), reflecting the erosive power of large storms in a landslide-prone landscape. The relations of TSS and most solute concentrations with stream discharge were stable through time, suggesting minimal long-term effects from repeated hurricane disturbance. Nitrate concentration, however, increased about threefold in response to hurricanes then returned to baseline over several years following a pseudo first-order decay pattern. The combined data sets provide insight about important hydrologic pathways, a long-term perspective to assess response to hurricanes, and a framework to evaluate future climate change in tropical ecosystems.

Puerto Rico↗

Evaluation of eelgrass beds mapping using a high-resolution airborne multispectral scanner

Eelgrass ( Zostera marina ) can provide vital ecological functions in stabilizing sediments, influencing current dynamics, and contributing significant amounts of biomass to numerous food webs in coastal ecosystems. Mapping eelgrass beds is important for coastal water and nearshore estuarine monitoring, management, and planning. This study demonstrated the possible use of high spatial (approximately 5 m) and temporal (maximum low tide) resolution airborne multispectral scanner on mapping eelgrass beds in Northern Puget Sound, Washington. A combination of supervised and unsupervised classification approaches were performed on the multispectral scanner imagery. A normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) derived from the red and near-infrared bands and ancillary spatial information, were used to extract and mask eelgrass beds and other submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) in the study area. We evaluated the resulting thematic map (geocoded, classified image) against a conventional aerial photograph interpretation using 260 point locations randomly stratified over five defined classes from the thematic map. We achieved an overall accuracy of 92 percent with 0.92 Kappa Coefficient in the study area. This study demonstrates that the airborne multispectral scanner can be useful for mapping eelgrass beds in a local or regional scale, especially in regions for which optical remote sensing from space is constrained by climatic and tidal conditions.

Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing↗

Integrated rangeland fire management strategy actionable science plan completion assessment — Sagebrush and sage-grouse topic, 2015–20

Loss and degradation of sagebrush rangelands due to an accelerated invasive annual grass-wildfire cycle and other stressors are significant management, conservation, and economic issues in the western United States. These sagebrush rangelands comprise a unique biome spanning 11 states, support over 350 wildlife species, and provide important ecosystem services that include stabilizing the economies of western communities. Impacts to sagebrush ecosystem processes over large areas due to the annual grass-wildfire cycle necessitated the development of a coordinated, science-based strategy for improving efforts to achieve long-term protection, conservation, and restoration of sagebrush rangelands, which was framed in 2015 under the Integrated Rangeland Fire Management Strategy (IRFMS). Central to this effort was the development of an Actionable Science Plan (Plan) that identified 37 priority science needs (Needs) for informing the actions proposed under the 5 topics (Fire, Invasives, Restoration, Sagebrush and Sage-Grouse, Climate and Weather) that were part of the collective focus of the IRFMS. Notable keys to this effort were identification of the Needs co-produced by managers and researchers, and a focus on resulting science being “actionable.” Substantial investments aimed at fulfilling the Needs identified in the Plan have been made since its release in 2016. While the state of the science has advanced considerably, the extent to which knowledge gaps remain relative to identified Needs is relatively unknown. Moreover, new Needs have likely emerged since the original strategy as results from actionable science reveal new questions and possible (yet untested) solutions. A quantifiable assessment of the progress made on the original science Needs can identify unresolved gaps and new information that can help inform prioritization of future research efforts. This report details a systematic literature review that evaluated how well peer-reviewed journal articles and formal technical reports published between January 1, 2015, and December 31, 2020, addressed nine needs (hereinafter, “Needs”) identified under the Sagebrush and Sage-Grouse topic in the Plan. The topic outlined research Needs broadly focused on understanding sagebrush rangelands and population dynamics important for the conservation and management of sage-grouse and other sagebrush-reliant wildlife species. We established the level of progress towards addressing each Need following a standardized set of criteria, and developed summaries detailing how research objectives nested within Needs identified in the Plan (‘Next Steps’) were either addressed well, partially addressed or remain outstanding (in other words, addressed poorly) in the literature through 2020. Our searches resulted in the inclusion of 333 science products that at least partially addressed a Need identified in the Sagebrush and Sage-Grouse topic. The Needs that were well and partially addressed included: development of biome-wide mapping techniques that provide regularly updated grassland and shrubland vegetation layers (Need 4); generation of spatially explicit greater sage-grouse habitat suitability and population models (Need 5); identification of greater sage-grouse seasonal habitats (Need 6); identification of thresholds for the extent of threats, especially conifer expansion, above which greater sage-grouse and other sagebrush-obligate species cannot persist (Need 8); and studies of sagebrush community dynamics as those relate to management and restoration of sagebrush rangelands (Need 9). Needs addressed poorly included: investigations of factors conducive and restrictive to greater sage-grouse movement patterns and population connectivity (Need 1); investigations of livestock and other large ungulate (for example, feral horse) grazing effects on greater sage-grouse populations and habitats (Need 2); identification of thresholds of disturbance (especially renewable energy developments) below which greater sage-grouse and other sagebrush reliant species are not impacted (Need 3); and studies of habitat relationships for sagebrush-reliant species other than greater sage-grouse, songbirds, and small mammals (Need 7). The information provided in this assessment will assist updating the Plan along with other science strategies.

western United States↗

Geographic variation in Bar-headed geese Anser indicus: connectivity of wintering and breeding grounds across a broad front

The connectivity and frequency of exchange between sub-populations of migratory birds is integral to understanding population dynamics over the entire species' range. True geese are highly philopatric and acquire lifetime mates during the winter, suggesting that the number of distinct sub-populations may be related to the number of distinct wintering areas. In the Bar-headed Goose Anser indicus, a species found exclusively in Central Asia, the connectivity between breeding and wintering areas is not well known. Their migration includes crossing a broad front of the Himalaya Cordillera, a significant barrier to migration for most birds. Many Bar-headed Geese fly to breeding areas on the Tibetan-Qinghai Plateau (TQP), the highest plateau in the world. From 2005-2008, 60 Bar-headed Geese were captured and marked with satellite transmitters in Nepal (n = 2), India (n = 6), China (n = 29), and Mongolia (n = 23) to examine their migration and distribution. Distinct differences were observed in their migration corridors and timing of movements, including an apparent leap-frog migration pattern for geese from Mongolia. Measurements of geese from Mongolia were larger than their counterparts from China, providing some evidence of morphological differences. Alteration of habitats in China, including the warming effects of climate change on glaciers increasing runoff to TQP wetlands, may be changing goose migration patterns and timing. With the exception of one individual, all geese from Qinghai Lake, China wintered in the southern TQP near Lhasa, and their increasing numbers in that region may be related to the effects of climate change and agricultural development. Thus, our findings document both morphological and geographical variation in sub-populations of Bar-headed Geese, but their resilience to environmental change may be lost if migratory short-stopping results in larger congregations restricted to a smaller number of wintering areas.

Wildfowl↗

The roles of flood magnitude and duration in controlling channel width and complexity on the Green River in Canyonlands, Utah, USA

Predictions of river channel adjustment to changes in streamflow regime based on relations between mean channel characteristics and mean flood magnitude can be useful to evaluate average channel response. However, because these relations assume equilibrium sediment transport, their applicability to cases where streamflow and sediment transport are decoupled may be limited. These general relations also lack the specificity that is required to connect specific characteristics of the streamflow and sediment regime with the dynamics of channel morphological change that create channel complexity, which is often of ecological interest. We integrate historical records of channel change, observations of scour and fill during a snowmelt flood, measurements of sediment transport, and predictions from a two-dimensional streamflow model to describe how annual peak flow magnitude and peak-flow duration interact with the upstream sediment supply to control channel form for a 15-km study reach on the regulated Green River in Canyonlands National Park, Utah. Two major decadal-scale episodes of channel narrowing have occurred within the study area. For each of these episodes, the reduction in average channel width was consistent with the change predicted by hydraulic geometry relations as a function of average flood magnitude. However, channel narrowing occurred during periods of exceptionally low annual floods. The most recent episode of channel narrowing occurred between 1988 and 2009, during low-flow cycles when the 5-yr mean peak flow was less than 60% of the long-term (1959–2016) mean peak flow. These findings, together with findings from previous studies, demonstrate that decreases in peak-flow magnitude caused by streamflow regulation, climate change, or a combination of those factors have driven episodes of channel narrowing on the Green River. Observations of streamflow, sediment-transport, and morphologic change coupled with predictions from a two-dimensional streamflow model indicate that peak flow magnitudes of at least 75% of the long-term mean peak flow are required to transport bed-material sand in suspension in all regions of the multi-thread channel and that the ~2-month duration of the snowmelt flood played an important role in creating conditions necessary to maintain channel conveyance. These results indicate that detailed characterizations of channel response such as these are needed to predict how river channels will respond to changes in streamflow regime that affect annual peak flow magnitude and duration.

Utah↗

Intrinsic and environmental drivers of pairwise cohesion in wild Canis social groups

Animals within social groups respond to costs and benefits of sociality by adjusting the proportion of time they spend in close proximity to other individuals in the group (cohesion). Variation in cohesion between individuals, in turn, shapes important group-level processes such as subgroup formation and fission–fusion dynamics. Although critical to animal sociality, a comprehensive understanding of the factors influencing cohesion remains a gap in our knowledge of cooperative behavior in animals. We tracked 574 individuals from six species within the genus Canis in 15 countries on four continents with GPS telemetry to estimate the time that pairs of individuals within social groups spent in close proximity and test hypotheses regarding drivers of cohesion. Pairs of social canids ( Canis spp.) varied widely in the proportion of time they spent together (5%–100%) during seasonal monitoring periods relative to both intrinsic characteristics and environmental conditions. The majority of our data came from three species of wolves (gray wolves, eastern wolves, and red wolves) and coyotes. For these species, cohesion within social groups was greatest between breeding pairs and varied seasonally as the nature of cooperative activities changed relative to annual life history patterns. Across species, wolves were more cohesive than coyotes. For wolves, pairs were less cohesive in larger groups, and when suitable, small prey was present reflecting the constraints of food resources and intragroup competition on social associations. Pair cohesion in wolves declined with increased anthropogenic modification of the landscape and greater climatic variability, underscoring challenges for conserving social top predators in a changing world. We show that pairwise cohesion in social groups varies strongly both within and across Canis species, as individuals respond to changing ecological context defined by resources, competition, and anthropogenic disturbance. Our work highlights that cohesion is a highly plastic component of animal sociality that holds significant promise for elucidating ecological and evolutionary mechanisms underlying cooperative behavior.

Ecology↗

Carbon cycling under 300 years of land use change: importance of the secondary vegetation sink

We have developed a dynamic land model (LM3V) able to simulate ecosystem dynamics and exchanges of water, energy, and CO 2 between land and atmosphere. LM3V is specifically designed to address the consequences of land use and land management changes including cropland and pasture dynamics, shifting cultivation, logging, fire, and resulting patterns of secondary regrowth. Here we analyze the behavior of LM3V, forced with the output from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) atmospheric model AM2, observed precipitation data, and four historic scenarios of land use change for 1700-2000. Our analysis suggests a net terrestrial carbon source due to land use activities from 1.1 to 1.3 GtC/a during the 1990s, where the range is due to the difference in the historic cropland distribution. This magnitude is substantially smaller than previous estimates from other models, largely due to our estimates of a secondary vegetation sink of 0.35 to 0.6 GtC/a in the 1990s and decelerating agricultural land clearing since the 1960s. For the 1990s, our estimates for the pastures' carbon flux vary from a source of 0.37 to a sink of 0.15 GtC/a, and for the croplands our model shows a carbon source of 0.6 to 0.9 GtC/a. Our process-based model suggests a smaller net deforestation source than earlier bookkeeping models because it accounts for decelerated net conversion of primary forest to agriculture and for stronger secondary vegetation regrowth in tropical regions. The overall uncertainty is likely to be higher than the range reported here because of uncertainty in the biomass recovery under changing ambient conditions, including atmospheric CO 2 concentration, nutrients availability, and climate. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

Global Biogeochemical Cycles↗

A self-modifying cellular automaton model of historical urbanization in the San Francisco Bay area

In this paper we describe a cellular automaton (CA) simulation model developed to predict urban growth as part of a project for estimating the regional and broader impact of urbanization on the San Francisco Bay area's climate. The rules of the model are more complex than those of a typical CA and involve the use of multiple data sources, including topography, road networks, and existing settlement distributions, and their modification over time. In addition, the control parameters of the model are allowed to self-modify: that is, the CA adapts itself to the circumstances it generates, in particular, during periods of rapid growth or stagnation. In addition, the model was written to allow the accumulation of probabilistic estimates based on Monte Carlo methods. Calibration of the model has been accomplished by the use of historical maps to compare model predictions of urbanization, based solely upon the distribution in year 1900, with observed data for years 1940, 1954, 1962, 1974, and 1990. The complexity of this model has made calibration a particularly demanding step. Lessons learned about the methods, measures, and strategies developed to calibrate the model may be of use in other environmental modeling contexts. With the calibration complete, the model is being used to generate a set of future scenarios for the San Francisco Bay area along with their probabilities based on the Monte Carlo version of the model. Animated dynamic mapping of the simulations will be used to allow visualization of the impact of future urban growth.

Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design↗

Reconstruction of Holocene and Last Interglacial vegetation dynamics and wildfire activity in Southern Siberia

Wildfires are a rapidly increasing threat to boreal forests. While our understanding of the drivers behind wildfires and their environmental impact is growing, it is mostly limited to the observational period. Here we focus on the boreal forests of southern Siberia and exploit a U–Th-dated stalagmite from Botovskaya Cave, located in the upper Lena region of southern Siberia, to document wildfire activity and vegetation dynamics during parts of two warm periods: the Last Interglacial (LIG; specifically part of the Last Interglacial maximum between 124.1 and 118.8 ka) and the Holocene (10–0 ka). Our record is based on levoglucosan (Lev), a biomarker sensitive to biomass burning, and on lignin oxidation products (LOPs) that discriminate between open and closed forest and hard- or softwood vegetation. In addition, we used carbonate carbon stable isotope ratios ( δ 13 C ), which reflect a dominant control of the host rock, to evaluate soil respiration and local infiltration changes. Our LOP data suggest that, during the Last Interglacial, the region around Botovskaya Cave was characterised by open forest, which by ca. 121.5 ka underwent a transition from fire-resistant hardwood to fire-prone softwood. The Lev record indicates that fire activity was high and increased towards the end of Last Interglacial just before 119 ka. In contrast, the Holocene was characterised by a closed-forest environment with mixed hard- and softwood vegetation. Holocene fire activity varied but at a much lower level than during the Last Interglacial. We attribute the changes in wildfire activity during the intervals of interest to the interplay between vegetation and climate. The open forests of the Last Interglacial were more likely to ignite than their closed Holocene equivalents, and their flammability was aided by warmer and drier summers and a stronger seasonal temperature contrast due to the increase in seasonal insolation difference compared to the Holocene. Our comparison of the last two interglacial intervals suggests that, with increasing global temperatures, the boreal forest of southern Siberia may become progressively more vulnerable to higher wildfire activity.

Botovskaya Cave, Siberia↗

Modeling physical and biogeochemical controls over carbon accumulation in a boreal forest soil

Boreal soils are important to the global C cycle owing to large C stocks, repeated disturbance from fire, and the potential for permafrost thaw to expose previously stable, buried C. To evaluate the primary mechanisms responsible for both short- and long-term C accumulation in boreal soils, we developed a multi-isotope (12,14C) Soil C model with dynamic soil layers that develop through time as soil organic matter burns and reaccumulates. We then evaluated the mechanisms that control organic matter turnover in boreal regions including carbon input rates, substrate recalcitrance, soil moisture and temperature, and the presence of historical permafrost to assess the importance of these factors in boreal C accumulation. Results indicate that total C accumulation is controlled by the rate of carbon input, decomposition rates, and the presence of historical permafrost. However, unlike more temperate ecosystems, one of the key mechanisms involved in C preservation in boreal soils examined here is the cooling of subsurface soil layers as soil depth increases rather than increasing recalcitrance in subsurface soils. The propagation of the 14C bomb spike into soils also illustrates the importance of historical permafrost and twentieth century warming in contemporary boreal soil respiration fluxes. Both 14C and total C simulation data also strongly suggest that boreal SOM need not be recalcitrant to accumulate; the strong role of soil temperature controls on boreal C accumulation at our modeling test site in Manitoba, Canada, indicates that carbon in the deep organic soil horizons is probably relatively labile and thus subject to perturbations that result from changing climatic conditions in the future. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research G: Biogeosciences↗

Estimating basin scale evapotranspiration (ET) by water balance and remote sensing methods

Evapotranspiration (ET) is an important hydrological process that can be studied and estimated at multiple spatial scales ranging from a leaf to a river basin. We present a review of methods in estimating basin scale ET and its applications in understanding basin water balance dynamics. The review focuses on two aspects of ET: (i) how the basin scale water balance approach is used to estimate ET; and (ii) how ‘direct’ measurement and modelling approaches are used to estimate basin scale ET. Obviously, the basin water balance-based ET requires the availability of good precipitation and discharge data to calculate ET as a residual on longer time scales (annual) where net storage changes are assumed to be negligible. ET estimated from such a basin water balance principle is generally used for validating the performance of ET models. On the other hand, many of the direct estimation methods involve the use of remotely sensed data to estimate spatially explicit ET and use basin-wide averaging to estimate basin scale ET. The direct methods can be grouped into soil moisture balance modelling, satellite-based vegetation index methods, and methods based on satellite land surface temperature measurements that convert potential ET into actual ET using a proportionality relationship. The review also includes the use of complementary ET estimation principles for large area applications. The review identifies the need to compare and evaluate the different ET approaches using standard data sets in basins covering different hydro-climatic regions of the world.

Hydrological Processes↗

An energy-circuit population model for great egrets (Ardea alba) at Lake Okeechobee, Florida, U.S.A

I simulated the annual population cycles of Great Egrets ( Ardea alba ) at Lake Okeechobee, Florida, to provide a framework for evaluating the local population dynamics of nesting and foraging wading birds. The external forcing functions were solar energy, minimum air temperature, water depth, surface-water drying rate, and season. Solar input controlled the production of prey at moderate to high lake stages, but water area exerted primary control during a two-year drought. Modeling prey production as a linear function of water area resulted in underestimation of prey density during the drought, suggesting that prey organisms maintained high fecundity while concentrated in submerged vegetation at the lakeward fringe of the littoral zone. Simulation confirmed that large influxes of wading birds during the drought were the combined result of a regional refuge response and the availability of concentrated prey. Modeling immigration and emigration as primarily functions of the surface-water drying rate, rather than lake stage, resulted in a closer match of observed and simulated population trends for foraging birds, suggesting that the pattern of surface-water fluctuations was a more important factor than water depth. Simulation indicated an abrupt-threshold response rather than a linear association between foraging efficiency and low temperatures, which reduce activity levels of forage fishes. Great Egret breeder recruitment is primarily a function of prey availability, climate, and hydrologic trends, but simulation confirmed the concurrent involvement of a seasonal or physiological-readiness factor. An attractor function driven by high winter lake stages was necessary to reproduce observed patterns of breeder recruitment, suggesting that Great Egrets initiate nesting based on environmental cues that lead to peak food availability when nestlings are present. Poor correspondence of reproductive effort and nest productivity suggested that the drought compromised the birds' predictive abilities. The need to model breeder recruitment as a function of a maximum rate rather than the size of the local foraging population suggested that birds may nest on the lake even though on-lake foraging conditions are poor. Simulated and observed estimates of egg and hatching production did not match, suggesting that the causes of failure during incubation were complex or more localized than could be accounted for with lakewide hydrologic and climatic data. A forced increase in prey consumption of 12% was necessary to reproduce observed, high levels of nest productivity in 1990, which corresponded to the finding that panhandled fish constituted 10–12% of the biomass fed to Great Egret nestlings that year.

Florida↗

Ecology of Lake Erie - Chemistry, plankton & planktivory: A synthesis

As with other large lake ecosystems worldwide, Lake Erie can be considered a moving target for management, owing to physicochemical and biological changes brought on by anthropogenic change, both planned (e.g. nutrient and fisheries management) and unplanned (e.g. climate change, invasive species, modified land-use activities). These changes have challenged efforts to conserve biodiversity, sustain exploitable resources, and maintain the integrity of services valued by society both within the Lake Erie basin and (Fraker et al., 2022; Fussell et al., 2016; Sinclair et al., 2021; Sinclair et al., 2023) and outside of it (Allan et al., 2013; Jenny et al., 2020; Sterner et al., 2017). Some of these changes and their ramifications for management were documented in the first of four AEHM special issues devoted to the Lake Erie ecosystem (the fourth issue of 2023, volume 26, issue 4; see overview by Ludsin et al., 2023). That special issue focused explicitly on nutrient inputs and availability in Lake Erie and the lower food web, including planktonic and benthic microbial (including cyanobacteria), algal, and invasive dreissenid mussel communities. Similar to the previous Lake Erie special issue, this second one has focused on documenting the state of the lake, providing ecological understanding that could potentially benefit management. While some overlap in topics exists between issues, the studies conducted herein were completely independent of those previous investigations and offer unique insights. Specifically, the contributions to this current issue center on: 1) dynamics of water chemistry in Lake Erie’s central basin (i.e. bottom hypoxia; Ackerman et al., 2024) and western basin (i.e. mercury; Starr et al., 2024); 2) changes in primary producer biomass (Lesht et al., 2024), cyanotoxins (i.e. microcystin; Zastepa et al., 2024), and water quality (e.g. water clarity and dissolved nutrients; Howell et al., 2024); and 3) larval fish foraging (i.e. Lake Whitefish; Coregonus clupeaformis; Amidon et al., 2024) and community structure and phenology (DeBruyne et al., 2024). Below we summarize the major findings of these papers and offer a synthetic perspective on the value of this research for understanding the state of Lake Erie and enhancing management.

Aquatic Ecosystem Health and Management↗