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At least 1,603 records · Page 89Linked to original sources
USGS2017

Hydrologic regimes as potential drivers of morphologic divergence in fish

Fishes often exhibit phenotypic divergence across gradients of abiotic and biotic selective pressures. In streams, many of the known selective pressures driving phenotypic differentiation are largely influenced by hydrologic regimes. Because flow regimes drive so many attributes of lotic systems, we hypothesized fish exhibit phenotypic divergence among streams with different flow regimes. We used a comparative field study to investigate the morphological divergence of Campostoma anomalom (central stonerollers) among streams characterized by highly variable, intermittent flow regimes and streams characterized by relatively stable, groundwater flow regimes. We also conducted a mesocosm experiment to compare the plastic effects of one component of flow regimes, water velocity, on morphology of fish from different flow regimes. We observed differences in shape between flow regimes likely driven by differences in allometric growth patterns. Although we observed differences in morphology across flow regimes in the field, C. anomalum did not exhibit morphologic plasticity in response to water velocity alone. This study contributes to the understanding of how complex environmental factors drive phenotypic divergence and may provide insight into the evolutionary consequences of disrupting natural hydrologic patterns, which are increasingly threatened by climate change and anthropogenic alterations.

Evolutionary Ecology↗
USGS2017

Effects of internal phosphorus loadings and food-web structure on the recovery of a deep lake from eutrophication

We used monitoring data from Lake Lugano (Switzerland and Italy) to assess key ecosystem responses to three decades of nutrient management (1983–2014). We investigated whether reductions in external phosphorus loadings (L ext ) caused declines in lake phosphorus concentrations (P) and phytoplankton biomass (Chl a ), as assumed by the predictive models that underpinned the management plan. Additionally, we examined the hypothesis that deep lakes respond quickly to L ext reductions. During the study period, nutrient management reduced L ext by approximately a half. However, the effects of such reduction on P and Chl a were complex. Far from the scenarios predicted by classic nutrient-management approaches, the responses of P and Chl a did not only reflect changes in L ext , but also variation in internal P loadings (L int ) and food-web structure. In turn, L int varied depending on basin morphometry and climatic effects, whereas food-web structure varied due to apparently stochastic events of colonization and near-extinction of key species. Our results highlight the complexity of the trajectory of deep-lake ecosystems undergoing nutrient management. From an applied standpoint, they also suggest that [ i ] the recovery of warm monomictic lakes may be slower than expected due to the development of L int , and that [ ii ] classic P and Chl a models based on L ext may be useful in nutrient management programs only if their predictions are used as starting points within adaptive frameworks.

Lake Lugano↗
USGS2017

Systems approaches for coastal hazard assessment and resilience

The framework presented herein supports a changing paradigm in the approaches used by coastal researchers, engineers, and social scientists to model the impacts of climate change and sea level rise (SLR) in particular along low-gradient coastal landscapes. Use of a System of Systems (SoS) approach to the coastal dynamics of SLR is encouraged to capture the nonlinear feedbacks and dynamic responses of the bio-geo-physical coastal environment to SLR, while assessing the social, economic, and ecologic impacts. The SoS approach divides the coastal environment into smaller subsystems such as morphology, ecology, and hydrodynamics. Integrated models are used to assess the dynamic responses of subsystems to SLR; these models account for complex interactions and feedbacks among individual systems, which provides a more comprehensive evaluation of the future of the coastal system as a whole. Results from the integrated models can be used to inform economic services valuations, in which economic activity is connected back to bio-geo-physical changes in the environment due to SLR by identifying changes in the coastal subsystems, linking them to the understanding of the economic system and assessing the direct and indirect impacts to the economy. These assessments can be translated from scientific data to application through various stakeholder engagement mechanisms, which provide useful feedback for accountability as well as benchmarks and diagnostic insights for future planning. This allows regional and local coastal managers to create more comprehensive policies to reduce the risks associated with future SLR and enhance coastal resilience.

Book chapter↗
USGS2020

Photosynthetic and respiratory acclimation of understory shrubs in response to in situ experimental warming of a wet tropical forest

Despite the importance of tropical forests to global carbon balance, our understanding of how tropical plant physiology will respond to climate warming is limited. In addition, the contribution of tropical forest understories to global carbon cycling is predicted to increase with rising temperatures, however, in situ warming studies of tropical forest plants to date focus only on upper canopies. We present results of an in situ field-scale +4°C understory infrared warming experiment in Puerto Rico (Tropical Responses to Altered Climate Experiment; TRACE). We investigated gas exchange responses of two common understory shrubs, Psychotria brachiata and Piper glabrescens , after exposure to 4 and 8 months warming. We assessed physiological acclimation in two ways: (1) by comparing plot-level physiological responses in heated versus control treatments before and after warming, and (2) by examining physiological responses of individual plants to variation in environmental drivers across all plots, seasons, and treatments. P. brachiata has the capacity to up-regulate (i.e., acclimate) photosynthesis through broadened thermal niche and up-regulation of photosynthetic temperature optimum ( T opt ) with warmer temperatures. P. glabrescens , however, did not upregulate any photosynthetic parameter, but rather experienced declines in the rate of photosynthesis at the optimum temperature ( A opt ), corresponding with lower stomatal conductance under warmer daily temperatures. Contrary to expectation, neither species showed strong evidence for respiratory acclimation. P. brachiata down-regulated basal respiration with warmer daily temperatures during the drier winter months only. P. glabrescens showed no evidence of respiratory acclimation. Unexpectedly, soil moisture, was the strongest environmental driver of daily physiological temperature responses, not vegetation temperature. T opt increased, while photosynthesis and basal respiration declined as soils dried, suggesting that drier conditions negatively affected carbon uptake for both species. Overall, P. brachiata , an early successional shrub, showed higher acclimation potential to daily temperature variations, potentially mitigating negative effects of chronic warming. The negative photosynthetic response to warming experienced by P. glabrescens , a mid-successional shrub, suggests that this species may not be able to as successfully tolerate future, warmer temperatures. These results highlight the importance of considering species when assessing climate change and relay the importance of soil moisture on plant function in large-scale warming experiments.

Puerto Rico↗
USGS2005

Size evolution in Goodwin’s small-eared shrew, Cryptotis goodwini

Fossils of Cryptotis goodwini from Honduras indicate that body sizes of modern individuals average at least 18% larger than among members of the late Pleistocene population of this species. Palynological and other paleoenvironmental studies provide evidence that the Neotropical montane environments that these shrews inhabit were cooler and drier in the late Pleistocene than at present and supported communities of plants without modern analog. Therefore, the most likely cause of this change in size ultimately was related to climatic change at the end of the Pleistocene?but to what specific factors did the species respond? I examined the possibilities that this species changed in size: to accommodate a change in temperature regime; to escape from predators; as a response to a change in intensity of interspecific competition; to take advantage of a newly abundant food resource. Based on evidence from studies of modern communities of shrews and niche partitioning, I hypothesized that size evolution in C. goodwini was directly related to changes in the community of soil and soil-surface invertebrates upon which the species depends, specifically an increase in the availability of earthworms (Annelida).

Book chapter↗
USGS1985

Optimal management strategies in variable environments: Stochastic optimal control methods

Dynamic optimization was used to investigate the optimal defoliation of salt desert shrubs in north-western Utah. Management was formulated in the context of optimal stochastic control theory, with objective functions composed of discounted or time-averaged biomass yields. Climatic variability and community patterns of salt desert shrublands make the application of stochastic optimal control both feasible and necessary. A primary production model was used to simulate shrub responses and harvest yields under a variety of climatic regimes and defoliation patterns. The simulation results then were used in an optimization model to determine optimal defoliation strategies. The latter model encodes an algorithm for finite state, finite action, infinite discrete time horizon Markov decision processes. Three questions were addressed: (i) What effect do changes in weather patterns have on optimal management strategies? (ii) What effect does the discounting of future returns have? (iii) How do the optimal strategies perform relative to certain fixed defoliation strategies? An analysis was performed for the three shrub species, winterfat (Ceratoides lanata), shadscale (Atriplex confertifolia) and big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata). In general, the results indicate substantial differences among species in optimal control strategies, which are associated with differences in physiological and morphological characteristics. Optimal policies for big sagebrush varied less with variation in climate, reserve levels and discount rates than did either shadscale or winterfat. This was attributed primarily to the overwintering of photosynthetically active tissue and to metabolic activity early in the growing season. Optimal defoliation of shadscale and winterfat generally was more responsive to differences in plant vigor and climate, reflecting the sensitivity of these species to utilization and replenishment of carbohydrate reserves. Similarities could be seen in the influence of both the discount rate and the climatic patterns on optimal harvest strategics. In general, decreases in either the discount rate or in the frequency of favorable weather patterns lcd to a more conservative defoliation policy. This did not hold, however, for plants in states of low vigor. Optimal control for shadscale and winterfat tended to stabilize on a policy of heavy defoliation stress, followed by one or more seasons of rest. Big sagebrush required a policy of heavy summer defoliation when sufficient active shoot material is present at the beginning of the growing season. The comparison of fixed and optimal strategies indicated considerable improvement in defoliation yields when optimal strategies are followed. The superior performance was attributable to increased defoliation of plants in states of high vigor. Improvements were found for both discounted and undiscounted yields.

Journal of Environmental Management↗
USGS2008

Detection and attribution of temperature changes in the mountainous Western United States

Large changes in the hydrology of the western United States have been observed since the mid-twentieth century. These include a reduction in the amount of precipitation arriving as snow, a decline in snowpack at low and midelevations, and a shift toward earlier arrival of both snowmelt and the centroid (center of mass) of streamflows. To project future water supply reliability, it is crucial to obtain a better understanding of the underlying cause or causes for these changes. A regional warming is often posited as the cause of these changes without formal testing of different competitive explanations for the warming. In this study, a rigorous detection and attribution analysis is performed to determine the causes of the late winter/early spring changes in hydrologically relevant temperature variables over mountain ranges of the western United States. Natural internal climate variability, as estimated from two long control climate model simulations, is insufficient to explain the rapid increase in daily minimum and maximum temperatures, the sharp decline in frost days, and the rise in degree-days above 0??C (a simple proxy for temperature driven snowmelt). These observed changes are also inconsistent with the model-predicted responses to variability in solar irradiance and volcanic activity. The observations are consistent with climite simulations that include the combined effects of anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosols. It is found that, for each temperature variable considered, an anthropogenic signal is identifiable in observational fields. The results are robust to uncertainties in model-estimated fingerprints and natural variability noise, to the choice of statistical down-scaling method, and to various processing options in the detection and attribution method. ?? 2008 American Meteorological Society.

Journal of Climate↗
USGS2020

Effects of a temperature rise on melatonin and thyroid hormones during smoltification of Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar

Smoltification prepares juvenile Atlantic salmon ( Salmo salar ) for downstream migration. Dramatic changes characterize this crucial event in the salmon’s life cycle, including increased gill Na + /K + -ATPase activity (NKA) and plasma hormone levels. The triggering of smoltification relies on photoperiod and is modulated by temperature. Both provide reliable information, to which fish have adapted for thousands of years, that allows deciphering daily and calendar time. Here we studied the impact of different photoperiod (natural, sustained winter solstice) and temperature (natural, ~ + 4° C) combinations, on gill NKA, plasma free triiodothyronine (T3) and thyroxine (T4), and melatonin (MEL; the time-keeping hormone), throughout smoltification. We also studied the impact of temperature history on pineal gland MEL production in vitro. The spring increase in gill NKA was less pronounced in smolts kept under sustained winter photoperiod and/or elevated temperature. Plasma thyroid hormone levels displayed day–night variations, which were affected by elevated temperature, either independently from photoperiod (decrease in T3 levels) or under natural photoperiod exclusively (increase in T4 nocturnal levels). Nocturnal MEL secretion was potentiated by the elevated temperature, which also altered the MEL profile under sustained winter photoperiod. Temperature also affected pineal MEL production in vitro, a response that depended on previous environmental acclimation of the organ. The results support the view that the salmon pineal is a photoperiod and temperature sensor, highlight the complexity of the interaction of these environmental factors on the endocrine system of S. salar , and indicate that climate change might compromise salmon’s time “deciphering” during smoltification, downstream migration and seawater residence.

Journal of Comparative Physiology B: Biochemical, ↗
USGS2015

Implications of the circumpolar genetic structure of polar bears for their conservation in a rapidly warming Arctic

We provide an expansive analysis of polar bear ( Ursus maritimus ) circumpolar genetic variation during the last two decades of decline in their sea-ice habitat. We sought to evaluate whether their genetic diversity and structure have changed over this period of habitat decline, how their current genetic patterns compare with past patterns, and how genetic demography changed with ancient fluctuations in climate. Characterizing their circumpolar genetic structure using microsatellite data, we defined four clusters that largely correspond to current ecological and oceanographic factors: Eastern Polar Basin, Western Polar Basin, Canadian Archipelago and Southern Canada. We document evidence for recent (ca. last 1–3 generations) directional gene flow from Southern Canada and the Eastern Polar Basin towards the Canadian Archipelago, an area hypothesized to be a future refugium for polar bears as climate-induced habitat decline continues. Our data provide empirical evidence in support of this hypothesis. The direction of current gene flow differs from earlier patterns of gene flow in the Holocene. From analyses of mitochondrial DNA, the Canadian Archipelago cluster and the Barents Sea subpopulation within the Eastern Polar Basin cluster did not show signals of population expansion, suggesting these areas may have served also as past interglacial refugia. Mismatch analyses of mitochondrial DNA data from polar and the paraphyletic brown bear ( U. arctos ) uncovered offset signals in timing of population expansion between the two species, that are attributed to differential demographic responses to past climate cycling. Mitogenomic structure of polar bears was shallow and developed recently, in contrast to the multiple clades of brown bears. We found no genetic signatures of recent hybridization between the species in our large, circumpolar sample, suggesting that recently observed hybrids represent localized events. Documenting changes in subpopulation connectivity will allow polar nations to proactively adjust conservation actions to continuing decline in sea-ice habitat.

Arctic↗
USGS2019

Integrating fish assemblage data, modeled stream temperatures, and thermal tolerance metrics to develop thermal guilds for water temperature regulation: Wyoming case study

Many streams are experiencing increased average temperatures due to anthropogenic activity and climate change. As a result, surface water temperature regulation is critical for preserving a diverse stream fish species assemblage. The development of temperature regulations has generally been based on laboratory measurements of individual species' thermal tolerances rather than community response to temperature in the field, despite multiple limitations of using laboratory data for this purpose. Using field data to develop temperature regulations may avoid some of the limitations of laboratory data, but the use of field data comes with additional challenges that prevent its widespread adoption. We used Wyoming stream fish assemblages as a case study to examine the feasibility of addressing the limitations of field and laboratory data through a hybrid approach that integrates both types of data to classify species into thermal guilds that can potentially inform regulatory standards. We identified coldwater, coolwater, and warmwater classes of sites with modeled mean August temperatures of <15.5, 15.5–19.9, and >19.9°C, respectively. We used species' associations with these temperature classes to place species into site‐groups. Finally, we used standardized laboratory measures of species' upper acute and chronic thermal tolerances to identify and reclassify species with unusual thermal distributions. Through this process we classified species into five thermal guilds that may be useful for surface water temperature regulation in Wyoming. Our approach addresses the limitations identified for field and laboratory data and demonstrates a framework that could be used for incorporating multiple types of data to develop temperature standards.

Wyoming↗
USGS2008

Effects of an invasive plant on a desert sand dune landscape

Given the abundance of non-native species invading wildland habitats, managers need to employ informed triage to focus control efforts on weeds with the greatest potential for negative impacts. Our objective here was to determine the level of threat Sahara mustard, Brassica tournefortii, represents to meeting regional goals for protecting biodiversity. Sahara mustard has spread throughout much of the Mojave and lower Sonoran Deserts. It has occurred in southern California's Coachella Valley for nearly 80 years, punctuated by years of extremely high abundance following high rainfall. In those years the mustard has clear negative impacts on the native flora. Using mustard removal experiments we identified reductions in native plant reproduction, shifting composition increasingly toward Sahara mustard while decreasing the fraction of native species. High between-year variance in precipitation may be a key to maintaining biodiversity as the mustard is less abundant in drier years. Sahara mustard impacts to the native fauna were much less evident. Of the animal species evaluated, only the Coachella Valley fringe-toed lizard, Uma inornata, demonstrated a negative response to mustard abundance; however the impacts were short-lived, lasting no more than a year after the mustard's dominance waned. Without control measures the long-term impacts to desert biodiversity may rest on the changing climate. Wetter conditions or increased periodicity of high rainfall years will favor Sahara mustard and result in reduced biodiversity, especially of native annual plants. Drier conditions will keep the mustard from becoming dominant but may have other negative consequences on the native flora and fauna. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Biological Invasions↗
USGS2023

Body mass dynamics in wintering mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) in the Lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Body mass in overwintering waterfowl is an important fitness attribute as it affects winter survival, timing of spring migration, and subsequent reproductive success. Recent research in Europe and the western United States indicates body mass of mallards ( Anas platyrhynchos ) has increased from the late 1960s to early 2000s. The underlying mechanism is currently unknown; however, researchers hypothesize that increases are due to a more benign winter climate, increased food availability through natural and artificial flooding, introgression of wild mallard populations by game-farm mallards, or shifting of wintering distributions northward. Further investigation of factors related to winter mallard body mass increases and whether this phenomenon is occurring in other major flyways could increase understanding of intrinsic and extrinsic variables influencing waterfowl fitness. Here, we analyzed mallard body mass in the Lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley from 1979 to 2021 to determine sources of temporal variation. We measured hunter-harvested mallards from private hunting clubs, public hunting areas, and duck-plucking businesses. Mallard body mass increased by approximately 6% among all age-sex classes from 1979 to 2021. Average mallard mass increased by about 1.5% per decade but varied substantially among years. Within years, body mass was related to rainfall and river gage height; mallards had greater mass after periods of increased rainfall or river flooding, likely due to increased food availability. Mallard body mass had a marginal negative relationship with severe cold weather (derived using a weather severity index [WSI]). While body mass increased after wet periods within years, there was no relationship of mallard body mass with wet vs dry years, low vs high flood years, or hot vs cold years. Additionally, there was no detectable change in rainfall, river discharge, or temperature from 1979 to 2021. This indicates that rainfall and river height may influence mallard body mass within years, but may not be the primary factor responsible for mass increases over time. Our research confirms changes in mallard body mass are widespread and within-season precipitation and flooding account for much of the observed annual variation. Future research investigating specific mechanisms, such as introgression of game-farm mallard DNA and climate change , may clarify their contribution to mallard body mass change over time.

Global Ecology and Conservation↗
USGS2022

Fire (plus) flood (equals) beach: Coastal response to an exceptional river sediment discharge event

Wildfire and post-fire rainfall have resounding effects on hillslope processes and sediment yields of mountainous landscapes. Yet, it remains unclear how fire–flood sequences influence downstream coastal littoral systems. It is timely to examine terrestrial–coastal connections because climate change is increasing the frequency, size, and intensity of wildfires, altering precipitation rates, and accelerating sea-level rise; and these factors can be understood as contrasting accretionary and erosive agents for coastal systems. Here we provide new satellite-derived shoreline measurements of Big Sur, California and show how river sediment discharge significantly influenced shoreline positions during the past several decades. A 2016 wildfire followed by record precipitation increased sediment discharge in the Big Sur River and resulted in almost half of the total river sediment load of the past 50 years (~ 2.2 of ~ 4.8 Mt). Roughly 30% of this river sediment was inferred to be littoral-grade sand and was incorporated into the littoral cell, causing the widest beaches in the 37-year satellite record and spreading downcoast over timescales of years. Hence, the impact of fire–flood events on coastal sediment budgets may be substantial, and these impacts may increase with time considering projected intensification of wildfires and extreme rain events under global warming.

California↗
USGS2019

Topographic change detection at Chalk Cliffs, Colorado, USA, using Airborne LiDAR and UAS-based Structure-from-Motion photogrammetry

The Chalk Cliffs debris-flow site is a small headwater catchment incised into highly fractured and hydrothermally altered quartz monzonite in a semi-arid climate. Over half of the extremely steep basin is exposed bedrock. Debris flows occur multiple times per year in response to rainstorm events, typically during the summer monsoon season. The frequency of debris flows, and the uniformity of the underlying rock, make Chalk Cliffs an ideal study catchment for translating mechanistic understanding of natural debris flows to other sites. A 2008 National Center for Airborne Laser Mapping (NCALM) Airborne LiDAR survey provides baseline topography for the site; however, heretofore there has been no systematic effort to collect repeat topography of the entire site. Starting in May 2018, we made repeat surveys of the basin with an unmanned aircraft system (UAS). The UAS-based imagery was processed into (x, y, z) point clouds using Structure-from-Motion (SfM) photogrammetry. We geo-registered the point clouds using 12 ground control points placed within and around the study basin. In this study we compare the LiDAR with one SfM point cloud to assess topographic change over a 10-year time period. The difference map provides observational data relevant to understanding sediment provenance and transport at the Chalk Cliffs. The difference image indicates erosion of colluvial surfaces, with limited deposition in the survey area. Some colluvial hillslopes show spatially uniform erosion while others experienced concentrated erosion of up to three meters depth over a ten-year period.

Colorado↗
USGS2025

Evaluating drought risk of the Red River of the North Basin using historical and stochastic streamflow upstream from Emerson, Manitoba

Drought and its effect on streamflow are important to understand because of the potential to adversely affect water supply, agricultural production, and ecological conditions. The Red River of the North Basin in north-central United States and central Canada is susceptible to dry conditions. During an extended drought, streamflow conditions in the Red River of the North may become inadequate to support existing water supply needs in the basin for agriculture, industry, human use, and aquatic life. To understand potential future low-streamflow conditions in the Red River of the North Basin, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the International Joint Commission, North Dakota Department of Water Resources, Red River Joint Water Resource District, and Red River Watershed Management Board, developed a water-balance model of the Red River of the North Basin upstream from Emerson, Manitoba, Canada, and coupled the model with stochastic weather inputs to simulate possible future low-streamflow conditions. Historical changes in low-streamflow conditions were characterized across the Red River of the North Basin using multiple change-point analysis for 12 streamgages. Across these stations, significant change-point years in 1943 and 1994 marked increases in the magnitude of low-streamflow conditions. During 1920–2015, conversion of primary land (not affected by human use) to agricultural and secondary land was followed by a conversion from smalls grains to corn and soybeans as the dominant crop type. From land-use analysis, 1940–2000 was determined to have relatively stable land use and therefore was used as the calibration period for the water-balance model. A deterministic water-balance model was developed for the Red River of the North Basin upstream from Emerson, Manitoba. The water-balance model was calibrated with data from 37 U.S. Geological Survey streamgages for 1940–2000 and verified using data for 2001–15. The calibrated water-balance model simulated streamflow distributions that mirrored the seasonal patterns of the observed mean monthly streamflow and the standard deviation of the monthly streamflow data, especially during the fall and winter months when streamflow was lowest. For the verification period, during the low-streamflow months of December through January, the difference between simulated and observed data was similar to the calibration comparison and successfully reproduced seasonal trends in the distribution of streamflow, even when using weather data that were outside the calibration period. To determine the future risk of low-streamflow conditions in the Red River of the North Basin, a block-bootstrap method was used to generate multiple possible future climates. These stochastically generated weather time series were then input to a water-balance model to simulate a distribution of possible streamflows. Three sets of experiments were performed, with each experiment containing a set of scenarios. The first set of experiments from the stochastic streamflow model were designed to investigate how changes in reservoir management would affect the distribution of low streamflow. Relative to scenario 1 (present-day [2023] reservoir operation), scenario 2 (no reservoir operation) shifted the low-streamflow frequency curves downward, reducing the annual minimum monthly streamflow for the Emerson subbasin. Subbasins were defined by the contributing area upstream from a selected streamgage station. Relative to scenario 1, scenario 3 (regulated streamflow with an increased reservoir capacity of 10 percent) shifted the low-streamflow frequency curves upward for the Emerson subbasin. The magnitude of this upward shift, caused by increased reservoir capacity, was lower than the magnitude of the shift caused by the absence of the reservoirs, which indicates that the streamflow was most affected when the reservoirs were first constructed. The second set of experiments from the stochastic streamflow model included two scenarios that were performed to better understand how the Red River of the North Basin responds to long periods of low or high precipitation. The results indicate that the model consistently overestimated streamflow, but the relative change between a wet and dry climate state of simulated streamflow distribution reasonably matched the relative change of historical streamflow. Across the subbasins, the model was most accurate for low-streamflow conditions associated with nonexceedance probabilities between 20 and 40 percent. The third set of experiments from the stochastic streamflow model were done to investigate low-streamflow response across the basin to several drought events. Low-end streamflow was reduced when the basin was exposed to a drought, and the magnitude of the reduction increased with longer or more intense droughts. Compared to the low-intensity drought scenarios, the range of percent reductions (as indicated by the interquartile range) was larger for the high-intensity drought scenarios for all subbasins, and the subbasins of Grand Forks and Emerson had a smaller range of reductions compared to the other three subbasins. The larger drainage area—combined with the large contribution of the Red Lake River and several other Minnesota tributaries that generally experience wetter climate conditions—upstream from the Emerson and Grand Forks subbasins may contribute to the smaller range in reductions under the high intensity scenarios. Comparison of the percent reduction in low-end streamflow among subbasins also indicated that the effects of drought duration and intensity could be cumulative. Combining factors of time and intensity produced a larger reduction in streamflow than when each effect was isolated. The array of drought scenarios can be used to determine how a subbasin would respond to multiple possible future conditions. Based on climate predictions, the drought scenario that best matches a future anticipated drought scenario can be used to estimate a low streamflow response for a given subbasin.

Manitoba, Minnesota, North Dakota↗
USGS2019

Alternative stable states in inherently unstable systems

Alternative stable states are nontransitory states within which communities can exist. However, even highly dynamic communities can be viewed within the framework of stable‐state theory if an appropriate “ecologically relevant” time scale is identified. The ecologically relevant time scale for dynamic systems needs to conform to the amount of time needed for a system's community to complete an entire cycle through its normal range of variation. For some systems, the ecologically relevant period can be relatively short (eg, tidal systems), for others it can be decadal (eg, prairie wetlands). We explore the concept of alternative stable states in unstable systems using the highly dynamic wetland ecosystems of North America's Prairie Pothole Region. The communities in these wetland ecosystems transition through multiple states in response to decadal‐long climate oscillations that cyclically influence ponded‐water depth, permanence, and chemistry. The perspective gained by considering dynamic systems in the context of stable‐state theory allows for an increased understanding of how these systems respond to changing drivers that can push them past tipping points into alternative states. Incorporation of concepts inherent to stable‐state theory has been suggested as a key scientific element upon which to base sustainable environmental management.

Alberta, Iowa, Manitoba, Minnesota, Montana, North↗
USGS2015

Web based visualization of large climate data sets

We have implemented the USGS National Climate Change Viewer (NCCV), which is an easy-to-use web application that displays future projections from global climate models over the United States at the state, county and watershed scales. We incorporate the NASA NEX-DCP30 statistically downscaled temperature and precipitation for 30 global climate models being used in the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and hydrologic variables we simulated using a simple water-balance model. Our application summarizes very large, complex data sets at scales relevant to resource managers and citizens and makes climate-change projection information accessible to users of varying skill levels. Tens of terabytes of high-resolution climate and water-balance data are distilled to compact binary format summary files that are used in the application. To alleviate slow response times under high loads, we developed a map caching technique that reduces the time it takes to generate maps by several orders of magnitude. The reduced access time scales to >500 concurrent users. We provide code examples that demonstrate key aspects of data processing, data exporting/importing and the caching technique used in the NCCV.

Environmental Modelling and Software↗
USGS2026

Constraining the onset of carboniferous cyclicity in the Arkoma Basin of the Midcontinent, North America: Implications for calibrating a globally significant latest Bashkirian transgression

Cyclothems are defined by the repeat juxtaposition of littoral and open marine successions over short stratigraphic distances (meters to 10's of meters) and are interpreted to be driven by glacioeustatic forcing of sea level during the late Paleozoic Ice Age. The concept of cyclothems was defined in the Midcontinent region of the United States. However, correlating the Midcontinent region to other cyclic successions is difficult, which is the result of no geochronologic control for the Midcontinent biostratigraphic framework. We present the first high-resolution U Pb zircon CA-ID-TIMS and feldspar 40 Ar/ 39 Ar age control for the onset of Midcontinent cyclothem deposition in the Arkoma Basin, Arkansas USA. Geochronologic control is obtained from a volcaniclastic unit preserved in the newly recovered Dare Creek #1 core. We integrate these data with biostratigraphic, lithostratigraphic and trace element analyses to investigate the timing, stratigraphic and geochemical response to late Paleozoic climate forcing. The lowermost Atoka Formation is associated with the onset of five high frequency transgressive-regressive cycles, which are defined by nearshore sandstones juxtaposed on top of offshore marine mudstones and are associated with changes in salinity and redox conditions. The Trace Creek Member of the lower Atoka Formation hosts a thick, organic-rich black shale, which defines the last and maximum transgression of the lower Atoka Formation in the Arkoma Basin, in the latest Bashkirian. Base-level records from time equivalent stratigraphic successions from Arrow Canyon, Nevada, U.S.A. and the Donets Basin, Ukraine also record a maximum transgression in the latest Bashkirian. The synchroneity of maximum flooding events from multiple basins which span the low latitudes in the latest Bashkirian support that cyclothem deposition was controlled by allostratigraphic forcing mechanisms, likely glacioeustatic forcing resulting from dynamic glaciation in high-latitude Gondwana.

Arkansas, Oklahoma↗