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Late winter and early spring home range and habitat use of the endangered Carolina northern flying squirrel in western North Carolina

The Carolina northern flying squirrel Glaucomys sabrinus coloratus is an endangered subspecies that is restricted to high elevation forests in the southern Appalachian Mountains. Owing to rugged terrain and nocturnal habits, the subspecies’ natural history, home range characteristics and habitat preferences are poorly known. We radio-tracked 3 female and 2 male Carolina northern flying squirrels during late winter through spring 2012 in the Pisgah National Forest, North Carolina, USA. Tracked squirrels used 13 yellow birch Betula alleghaniensis and 9 red spruce Picea rubens as diurnal dens. Ten of the yellow birch dens were in cavities, whereas the remainders were dreys. Conversely, 8 of the red spruce dens were dreys and one was in a cavity. Mean (±SE) female 95 and 50% adaptive kernel home ranges were 6.50 ± 2.19 and 0.93 ± 0.33 ha, respectively, whereas the corresponding values for males were 12.6 ± 0.9 and 1.45 ± 0.1 ha, respectively. Squirrels used red spruce stands with canopies >20 m more than expected based on availability at the landscape and home range scales. Results should be interpreted cautiously because of small sample sizes and seasonal observations; however, they provide evidence that although northern hardwoods such as yellow birch are an important den habitat component, mature red spruce-dominated habitats with complex structure provide foraging habitats and are also den habitat. Our findings support efforts to improve the structural condition of extant red spruce forests and/or increase red spruce acreage to potentially benefit Carolina northern flying squirrels.

North Carolina↗

Characterizing residence patterns of North Atlantic right whales in the southeastern U.S. with a multistate open robust design model

Effective conservation of endangered North Atlantic right whales (Eubalaena glacialis) requires information about their spatio-temporal distribution. Understanding temporal distribution is particularly important, because a portion of the population migrates between high latitude summer feeding grounds off the northeastern U.S. and Canadian Maritimes coasts and lower latitude calving and wintering grounds off the southeastern U.S. coast (SEUS). Here, we modeled SEUS residence patterns using photo-identification data from coastal South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida from seven winter seasons (2004/2005 – 2010/2011). We used multistate open robust design models to evaluate effects of reproductive status, demographic group, and environmental conditions on SEUS residence. Model estimates accounted for temporal variation and imperfect detection and provided probabilities of entering the SEUS, staying in the SEUS, and being sighted. We also derived estimates for residence time and seasonal abundance. We observed staggered arrival and departure patterns and demographic differences in residence patterns that are characteristic of a differential migration strategy. Calving females arrived earliest and, in most seasons, had mean residence periods more than twice as long as other demographic groups. Conversely, adult males arrived the latest, and had the shortest residence times. Within-season, biweekly detection was positively influenced by survey effort, and seasonal detection rate estimates ranged from 0.83 ± 0.08 for non-calving adult females to 0.98 ± 0.02 for calving females. Results provide insights into right whale behavior, biology, and temporal distribution in the SEUS and can be used to evaluate spatially- and temporally- dynamic management measures.

South Carolina, Georgia, Florida↗

Key seabird areas in southern New England identified using a community occupancy model

Seabirds are of conservation concern, and as new potential risks to seabirds are arising, the need to provide unbiased estimates of species’ distributions is growing. We applied community occupancy models to detection/non-detection data collected from repeated aerial strip-transect surveys conducted in 2 large study plots off southern New England, USA; one off the coast of Rhode Island and the other in Nantucket Sound. A total of 17 seabird species were observed at least once in each study plot. We found that detection varied by survey date and effort for most species and the average detection probability across species was less than 0.4. We estimated the influence of water depth, sea surface temperature, and sea surface chl a concentration on species-specific occupancy. Diving species showed large differences between the 2 study plots in their predicted winter distributions, which were largely explained by water depth acting as a stronger predictor of occupancy in Rhode Island than in Nantucket Sound. Conversely, similarities between the 2 study plots in predicted winter distributions of surface-feeding species were explained by sea surface temperature or chlorophyll a concentration acting as predictors of these species’ occupancy in both study plots. We predicted the number of species at each site using the observed data in order to detect ‘hot-spots’ of seabird diversity and use in the 2 study plots. These results provide new information on detection of species, areas of use, and relationships with environmental variables that will be valuable for biologists and planners interested in seabird conservation in the region.

Massachusetts, Rhode Island↗

An emerging crisis across northern prairie refuges: Prevalence of invasive plants and a plan for adaptive management

In the northern Great Plains, native prairies managed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (Service) can be pivotal in conservation of North America's biological diversity. From 2002 to 2006, we surveyed 7,338 belt transects to assess the general composition of mixed-grass and tallgrass prairie vegetation across five "complexes" (i.e., administrative groupings) of national wildlife refuges managed by the Service in North Dakota and South Dakota. Native grasses and forbs were common (mean frequency of occurrence 47%-54%) on two complexes but uncommon (4%-13%) on two others. Conversely, an introduced species of grass, smooth brome (Bromus inermis), accounted for 45% to 49% of vegetation on two complexes and another species, Kentucky bluegrass (Poa pratensis) accounted for 27% to 36% of the vegetation on three of the complexes. Our data confirm prior suspicions of widespread invasion by introduced species of plants on Service-owned tracts of native prairie, changes that likely stem in part from a common management history of little or no disturbance (e.g., defoliation by grazing or fire). However, variability in the degree and type of invasion among prairie tracts suggests that knowledge of underlying causes (e.g., edaphic or climatic factors, management histories) could help managers more effectively restore prairies. We describe an adaptive management approach to acquire such knowledge while progressing with restoration. More specifically, we propose to use data from inventories of plant communities on Service-owned prairies to design and implement, as experiments, optimal restoration strategies. We will then monitor these experiments and use the results to refine future strategies. This comprehensive, process-oriented approach should yield reliable and robust recommendations for restoration and maintenance of native prairies in the northern Great Plains. 2009 by the Board of Regents of the University of Wisconsin System.

Ecological Restoration↗

Terrestrial fauna are agents and endpoints in ecosystem restoration following dam removal

Dam removal is an effective and increasingly applied river restoration strategy. This has led to heightened calls for research and monitoring aimed at understanding physical and ecological outcomes following dam removal. While such research programs have increased, roles of terrestrial fauna in the restoration process remain poorly understood, although wildlife and invertebrate fauna are key components of restored ecosystems. Wildlife play reciprocal roles in restoration: they benefit from restored habitats and their activities affect restoration trajectories. Dam removal exposes substrates on former reservoirs and reconnects river corridors, providing new habitat and food resources for terrestrial fauna. Conversely, many wildlife may influence the river restoration process, with both short-term and long-term consequences for community composition, nutrient transfer, and ecosystem function. We assert that considering terrestrial fauna more directly in river restoration research and planning can enhance restoration outcomes. We illustrate these concepts by describing short-term patterns and potential future processes expected from the recent removal of two large dams on the Elwha River in Washington State, the largest dam removal effort ever undertaken. We conclude that an ecosystem-level understanding of restoration following dam removal is critical to fully assessing the impacts and benefits of restoration. This includes measuring the roles and responses of terrestrial fauna to these ecologically and culturally significant restoration projects.

Ecological Restoration↗

Prioritizing bottomland hardwood forest sites for protection and augmentation

Bottomland hardwood forest has been greatly diminished by conversion to agriculture. Less than 25% of the pre-Columbian bottomland hardwood forests remain in the southeastern United States. Because of the valuable ecological and hydrological functions performed by these forests, their conservation and restoration has been a high priority. Part of these restoration efforts has focused on developing tools that can be used for both assessments at the landscape level and policy implementation at the local level. The distribution of bottomland hardwood forests in the Cache and White River watersheds in eastern Arkansas were examined using existing GIS databases. Criteria were developed to select areas that should be conserved or augmented for wildlife habitat. Over 67% of the study area was classified as agriculture, with bottomland hardwood forest the next largest habitat class. The thickness of a forest fragment was defined as the radius of the largest circle that can be inscribed in a fragment. Thickness was used in three ways. First, individual forest fragments were identified and selected based on ecological function using criteria we established. Second, individual fragments that were too small to support interior species, but large enough that if moderately augmented they could recover that function, were identified and selected. These augmentable fragments were further prioritized by adjacency to habitat that might be suitable for reforestation, namely agriculture. Third, watersheds were prioritized for conservation and augmentation based on the size and distributions of forest fragment thickness and area within each watershed.

Arkansas↗

Efficacy of increased visual and olfactory cues for luring and trapping invasive tegu lizards

Controlling invasive wildlife species relies on the ability to efficiently remove individuals from the invaded environment. Thus, maximizing capture potential is of high interest, particularly for species that are difficult to capture. For invasive species such as the Argentine black and white tegu lizard ( Salvator merianae ), increasing attraction to traps could increase the probability of removal. While it has been established that S. merianae can be lured with a single chicken egg, the efficacy of increasing olfactory or visual cues to increase tegu captures has not been rigorously tested. To test this, we leveraged an ongoing National Park Service trapping effort near Everglades National Park. In 2023 and 2024, we randomly assigned traps to a control treatment (single real egg), increased olfactory and visual treatment (three real eggs), an increased visual plus standard olfactory treatment (one real egg and one decoy egg, or one real egg and two decoy eggs), or visual treatment only (three decoy eggs). We fitted Bayesian binomial models for tegu lizards and non-target species to the trapping data to assess how bait treatment, trap style, and trap location affected the daily probability of capture at a trap. Additionally, we fitted Bayesian linear models to test the effect of bait treatment on the size of tegus captured. We found that increasing the olfactory cue to three real eggs increased the probability of tegu capture, but not the probability of non-target species capture. Conversely, traps with one real egg and two decoy eggs increased the probability of non-target captures while reducing the probability of tegu captures. Trap style and trap location also had statistically significant effects. Bait treatment did not significantly influence the size of tegus captured; however, there was a weak effect suggesting juvenile and male tegus captured in traps with three real eggs were larger compared to traps with a single egg and two decoy eggs. Our results highlight potential improvements in tegu control methods that balance effective capture with minimizing non-target bycatch.

Florida↗

Linear and landscape disturbances alter Mojave desert tortoise movement behavior

Introduction: Animal movements are influenced by landscape features; disturbances to the landscape can alter movements, dispersal, and ultimately connectivity among populations. Faster or longer movements adjacent to a localized disturbance or within disturbed areas could indicate reduced habitat quality whereas slower or shorter movements and reduced movements may indicate greater availability of resources. The Mojave desert tortoise ( Gopherus agassizii ) is a threatened species that is challenged by anthropogenic disturbances. Methods: We studied tortoise movements using Global Positioning System (GPS) loggers at multiple sites in the Mojave Desert of Nevada and California. Tortoises at our sites encountered localized, linear human infrastructure, including paved roads, dirt roads, and fences, as well as landscape-scale disturbances [wildfire, off highway vehicle use (OHV), livestock grazing area]. We fit two-state (moving and encamped) Hidden Markov models to GPS logger data to infer how tortoise movement behavior relates to anthropogenic and natural features. Results: We found that temporal covariates, individual-level random effects (intercepts), and sex best explained state transition probability in all sites. We compared relationships between tortoise movement and linear disturbances, which varied depending on site and context. Tortoises made longer movements within the OHV recreation area, near most dirt roads, and near a low-traffic paved road, indicating that tortoises avoid these habitat disturbances. Conversely, tortoises made shorter movements in areas of higher slope and near highways, suggesting that these features may restrict movement or provide resources that result in prolonged use (e.g., forage or drinking locations). Tortoises that encountered fences around utility-scale solar installations were more active and made longer movements near fences, indicative of pacing behavior. Discussion: These results provide insight into how different disturbances alter tortoise movement behavior and modify tortoise habitat use, providing information that can be used to manage tortoise habitat.

California, Nevada↗

Benthic macroinvertebrate response to estuarine emergent marsh restoration across a delta-wide environmental gradient

Benthic invertebrates play vital roles in estuarine ecosystems, but like other taxa they have been excluded from former marshlands by diking and land use conversion. Dike removal is one way of restoring marsh, but the response of benthic invertebrates has been little studied. Also understudied is variation in benthic invertebrate communities across entire deltas, particularly in the Pacific Northwest of North America where deltas receive high flows and sediment loads for their size. Our goals were to evaluate invertebrate response to large-scale dike removal on the Nisqually River Delta in Puget Sound, Washington, U.S.A., characterize delta-wide invertebrate community variation, and relate invertebrate response and spatial variation to environmental conditions. We sampled invertebrates annually from one year before to three years after dike removal in restoring marsh, previously restored marsh, undisturbed reference marsh, and adjacent tidal flats. Marine taxa immediately colonized the area recently restored to tidal inundation and population size grew exponentially thereafter for several of them. Community composition and diversity recovered completely, and density and biomass were approaching recovery three years later. Invertebrate communities converged between restoring and pre-existing marsh (previously restored and reference), suggesting an influence of reestablished connectivity. Just offshore from the dike line, invertebrates declined one year after dike removal but then rebounded indicating resilience to short-term disturbance. Dike removal effects were not detected farther offshore. Near the offshore edge of the delta, invertebrate biomass and body size were greater than elsewhere and a diverse assemblage of crustaceans, polychaetes, and bivalves was present. Farther inshore, tidal flats were dominated by a few species of small-bodied polychaetes and had higher density but lower biomass and diversity. Facultative detritivores, which can also filter feed, were the dominant feeding guild everywhere on the tidal flats. Density, biomass, diversity, and community composition on the marsh were more similar to the inner than outer tidal flats. Environmental variables most associated with invertebrate community variation were elevation, salinity, and sediment grain size and organic content. Our results are relevant to assessing performance and setting expectations for future restorations and have broad implications for the role of benthic invertebrates in estuarine ecosystems.

Washington↗

Integrating high-resolution coastal acidification monitoring data across seven United States estuaries

Beginning in 2015, the United States Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA’s) National Estuary Program (NEP) started a collaboration with partners in seven estuaries along the East Coast (Barnegat Bay; Casco Bay), West Coast (Santa Monica Bay; San Francisco Bay; Tillamook Bay), and the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) Coast (Tampa Bay; Mission-Aransas Estuary) of the United States to expand the use of autonomous monitoring of partial pressure of carbon dioxide ( p CO 2 ) and pH. Analysis of high-frequency (hourly to sub-hourly) coastal acidification data including p CO 2 , pH, temperature, salinity, and dissolved oxygen (DO) indicate that the sensors effectively captured key parameter measurements under challenging environmental conditions, allowing for an initial characterization of daily to seasonal trends in carbonate chemistry across a range of estuarine settings. Multi-year monitoring showed that across all water bodies temperature and p CO 2 covaried, suggesting that p CO 2 variability was governed, in part, by seasonal temperature changes with average p CO 2 being lower in cooler, winter months and higher in warmer, summer months. Furthermore, the timing of seasonal shifts towards increasing (or decreasing) p CO 2 varied by location and appears to be related to regional climate conditions. Specifically, p CO 2 increases began earlier in the year in warmer water, lower latitude water bodies in the GOM (Tampa Bay; Mission-Aransas Estuary) as compared with cooler water, higher latitude water bodies in the northeast (Barnegat Bay; Casco Bay), and upwelling-influenced West Coast water bodies (Tillamook Bay; Santa Monica Bay; San Francisco Bay). Results suggest that both thermal and non-thermal influences are important drivers of p CO 2 in Tampa Bay and Mission-Aransas Estuary. Conversely, non-thermal processes, most notably the biogeochemical structure of coastal upwelling, appear to be largely responsible for the observed p CO 2 values in West Coast water bodies. The co-occurrence of high salinity, high p CO 2 , low DO, and low temperature water in Santa Monica Bay and San Francisco Bay characterize the coastal upwelling paradigm that is also evident in Tillamook Bay when upwelling dominates freshwater runoff and local processes. These data demonstrate that high-quality carbonate chemistry observations can be recorded from estuarine environments using autonomous sensors originally designed for open-ocean settings.

California, Florida, Maine, New Jersey, Oregon, Te↗

Dissolved organic carbon dynamics and fluxes in Mississippi-Atchafalaya deltaic system impacted by an extreme flood event and hurricanes: A multi-satellite approach using Sentinel-2/3 and Landsat-8/9 data

Transport of riverine and wetland-derived dissolved organic carbon (DOC) spanning tidal wetlands, estuaries, and continental shelf waters functionally connects terrestrial and aquatic carbon reservoirs, yet the magnitude and ecological significance of this variable and its spatiotemporal linkage remains uncertain for coastal deltaic regions, such as Mississippi River Delta Plain, which includes Mississippi (MR) and Atchafalaya (AR) rivers and estuaries with vast expanses of wetlands and coastal forests. We examined DOC dynamics and fluxes in this large river-dominated wetland-estuarine system for the period between 2019 and 2021 that included an extreme river flood event in 2019, two major hurricanes (Barry in 2019 and Ida in 2021), and cold front passage using an improved adaptive quasi-analytical algorithm (QAA-AD) applied to multi-satellite sensors (Sentinel 3A/B OLCI, Landsat-8/OLI and Sentinel-2A/B MSI) with varying spectral and spatial (10/30/300 m) resolutions. The DOC estimates from multi-satellite sensors in combination with water fluxes were used to assess DOC fluxes from two large rivers (MR and AR) and small channels across the delta plain. Overall, this system delivered a total of 6.7 Tg C yr -1 (1 Tg = 10 12 g) into the estuarine zone and the northern Gulf of Mexico (nGoM) during 2019. High DOC fluxes from the AR (1.3 Tg C yr -1 ) and MR (4.5 Tg C yr -1 ) were associated with the extreme flood event in 2019. Hurricanes that occurred in the study period also contributed to the wetland and estuarine DOC fluxes into continental shelf waters; for example, the passage of Hurricane Barry in July 2019, delivered over a 3-day period ~1.33 ×10 9 g DOC from Barataria Basin into the nGoM. Sentinel 2-MSI land and water classification revealed that Hurricane Ida eroded a total of 1.34×10 8 m 2 of marshes in middle Barataria Basin, converting those habitats into open water with 3.0 m inundation depth and high DOC concentrations (16.4 mg L -1 ), a potentially large DOC source to the coastal waters. Overall, storms and flood events are major sources of DOC flux that facilitate transport of upstream carbon as well as transformation of carbon in the wetlands, through the conversion of vegetated wetland to open water.

Louisiana↗

The effect of natural organic matter on mercury methylation by Desulfobulbus propionicus 1pr3

Methylation of tracer and ambient mercury ( 200 Hg and 202 Hg, respectively) equilibrated with four different natural organic matter (NOM) isolates was investigated in vivo using the Hg-methylating sulfate-reducing bacterium Desulfobulbus propionicus 1pr3. Desulfobulbus cultures grown fermentatively with environmentally representative concentrations of dissolved NOM isolates, Hg[II], and HS − were assayed for absolute methylmercury (MeHg) concentration and conversion of Hg(II) to MeHg relative to total unfiltered Hg(II). Results showed the 200 Hg tracer was methylated more efficiently in the presence of hydrophobic NOM isolates than in the presence of transphilic NOM, or in the absence of NOM. Different NOM isolates were associated with variable methylation efficiencies for either the 202 Hg tracer or ambient 200 Hg. One hydrophobic NOM, F1 HpoA derived from dissolved organic matter from the Florida Everglades, was equilibrated for different times with Hg tracer, which resulted in different methylation rates. A 5 day equilibration with F1 HpoA resulted in more MeHg production than either the 4 h or 30 day equilibration periods, suggesting a time dependence for NOM-enhanced Hg bioavailability for methylation.

Frontiers in Microbiology↗

Implications of zoonoses from hunting and use of wildlife in North American arctic and boreal biomes: Pandemic potential, monitoring, and mitigation

The COVID-19 pandemic has re-focused attention on mechanisms that lead to zoonotic disease spillover and spread. Commercial wildlife trade, and associated markets, are recognized mechanisms for zoonotic disease emergence, resulting in a growing global conversation around reducing human disease risks from spillover associated with hunting, trade, and consumption of wild animals. These discussions are especially relevant to people who rely on harvesting wildlife to meet nutritional, and cultural needs, including those in Arctic and boreal regions. Global policies around wildlife use and trade can impact food sovereignty and security, especially of Indigenous Peoples. We reviewed known zoonotic pathogens and current risks of transmission from wildlife (including fish) to humans in North American Arctic and boreal biomes, and evaluated the epidemic and pandemic potential of these zoonoses. We discuss future concerns, and consider monitoring and mitigation measures in these changing socio-ecological systems. While multiple zoonotic pathogens circulate in these systems, risks to humans are mostly limited to individual illness or local community outbreaks. These regions are relatively remote, subject to very cold temperatures, have relatively low wildlife, domestic animal, and pathogen diversity, and in many cases low density, including of humans. Hence, favorable conditions for emergence of novel diseases or major amplification of a spillover event are currently not present. The greatest risk to northern communities from pathogens of pandemic potential is via introduction with humans visiting from other areas. However, Arctic and boreal ecosystems are undergoing rapid changes through climate warming, habitat encroachment, and development; all of which can change host and pathogen relationships, thereby affecting the probability of the emergence of new (and re-emergence of old) zoonoses. Indigenous leadership and engagement in disease monitoring, prevention and response, is vital from the outset, and would increase the success of such efforts, as well as ensure the protection of Indigenous rights as outlined in the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples. Partnering with northern communities and including Indigenous Knowledge Systems would improve the timeliness, and likelihood, of detecting emerging zoonotic risks, and contextualize risk assessments to the unique human-wildlife relationships present in northern biomes.

Frontiers in Public Health↗

Neonicotinoid sunflower seed treatment, while not detected in pollen and nectar, still impacts wild bees and crop yield

Neonicotinoid seed treatments are commonly used in agricultural production even though their benefit to crop yield and their impact on pollinators, particularly wild bees, remains unclear. Using an on-farm matched pair design in which half of each field was sown with thiamethoxam treated seed and half without, we assessed honey bee and wild bee exposure to pesticides in sunflower fields by analyzing pesticide residues in field soil, sunflower pollen and nectar, pollen-foraging and nec-tar-foraging honey bees, and a sunflower specialist wild bee (Melissodes agilis). We also quantified the effects of thiamethoxam-treated seed on wild bee biodiversity and crop yield. M. agilis abundance was significantly lower with thiamethoxam treatment and overall wild bee abundance trending lower but was not significantly different. Furthermore, crop yield was significantly lower in plots with thiamethoxam treatment, even though thiamethoxam was only detected at low concentrations in one soil sample (and its primary metabolite, clothianidin, was never detected). Conversely, wild bee richness was significantly higher and diversity was marginally higher with thiamethoxam treatment. Nectar volumes harvested from the nectar-foraging honey bees were also significantly higher with thiamethoxam treatment. Several pesticides that were not used in the sunflower fields were detected in our samples, some of which are known to be deleterious to bee health, highlighting the importance of the landscape scale in the assessment of pesticide exposure for bees. Overall, our results suggest that thiamethoxam seed treatments may negatively impact wild bee pollination services in sunflower. Importantly, this study highlights the advantages of the inclusion of other metrics, such as biodiversity or behavior, in pesticide risk analysis, as pesticide residue analysis, as an independent metric, may erroneously miss the impacts of field realistic pesticide exposure on bees.

California↗

Soft Release Translocation of Texas Horned Lizards (Phrynosoma cornutum) on an Urban Military Installation in Oklahoma, United States

Wildlife translocation is an often-used technique to augment populations or remove animals from harm’s way. Unfortunately, many translocation efforts fail to meet their goals for myriad reasons, particularly because translocated animals make large, erratic movements after release, which can result in high mortality rates. Soft release, holding animals in acclimation pens for some period of time at the recipient site before release, has been proposed as a technique to reduce these large movements and increase the survival of translocated animals. Here, we compared the survival and movement patterns of soft-released Texas horned lizards (Phrynosoma cornutum ) with resident lizards, as well as hard-released lizards from a prior study. Juvenile lizards that were soft-released had high survival rates similar to resident lizards, despite still moving more frequently and occupying larger home ranges than residents. Conversely, soft-released adult lizards had survival rates similar to those that were hard-released, and much lower rates than resident adults. Curiously, soft-released adults did not have significantly higher movement rates or home range sizes than residents. Our results suggest that caution should be used before adult Texas horned lizards are translocated. However, juveniles responded well to soft release, and future research should explore whether they are more resilient to translocation in general, or if soft release provided a specific survival advantage. Contrary to our predictions, the survival of translocated animals was not related to their post-release movement patterns, and the mechanism underlying the observed survival patterns is unclear.

Oklahoma↗

Potential effects of habitat change on migratory bird movements and avian influenza transmission in the East Asian-Australasian Flyway

Wild waterbirds, and especially wild waterfowl, are considered to be a reservoir for avian influenza viruses, with transmission likely occurring at the agricultural-wildlife interface. In the past few decades, avian influenza has repeatedly emerged in China along the East Asian-Australasian Flyway (EAAF), where extensive habitat conversion has occurred. Rapid environmental changes in the EAAF, especially distributional changes in rice paddy agriculture, have the potential to affect both the movements of wild migratory birds and the likelihood of spillover at the agricultural-wildlife interface. To begin to understand the potential implications such changes may have on waterfowl and disease transmission risk, we created dynamic Brownian Bridge Movement Models (dBBMM) based on waterfowl telemetry data. We used these dBBMM models to create hypothetical scenarios that would predict likely changes in waterfowl distribution relative to recent changes in rice distribution quantified through remote sensing. Our models examined a range of responses in which increased availability of rice paddies would drive increased use by waterfowl and decreased availability would result in decreased use, predicted from empirical data. Results from our scenarios suggested that in southeast China, relatively small decreases in rice agriculture could lead to dramatic loss of stopover habitat, and in northeast China, increases in rice paddies should provide new areas that can be used by waterfowl. Finally, we explored the implications of how such scenarios of changing waterfowl distribution may affect the potential for avian influenza transmission. Our results provide advance understanding of changing disease transmission threats by incorporating real-world data that predicts differences in habitat utilization by migratory birds over time.

Diversity↗

Conservation–Protection of forests for wildlife in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley

The nearly ubiquitous bottomland hardwood forests that historically dominated the Mississippi Alluvial Valley have been greatly reduced in area. In addition, changes in hydrology and forest management have altered the structure and composition of the remaining forests. To ameliorate the detrimental impact of these changes on wildlife, conservation plans have emphasized restoration to increase interior forest habitat, while presuming negligible loss of extant forest in this ecoregion. Without conservation-protection, however, existing forests are subject to conversion to other uses. We assessed the conservation-protection status of land within the Mississippi Alluvial Valley and found that only 10% of total area was protected. Even so, 28% of extant forest was in the current conservation estate. Based on forest patch area, location, and hydrologic influence, we prioritized the attributed need of forest patches for additional conservation-protection. For forest bird conservation, we found 4712 forest patches warranted consideration for conservation-protection but only 109 of these forest patches met our conservation threshold of >2000 ha of core-forest that was >250 m from an edge. Overall, 35% of the area of forest patches considered for conservation-protection was protected within the conservation estate. However, those forest patches identified as most in need of conservation-protection had <10% of their area protected within the current conservation estate.

Forests↗

Watershed and estuarine controls both influence plant community and tree growth changes in tidal freshwater forested wetlands along two U.S. mid-Atlantic rivers

The tidal freshwater zone near the estuarine head-of-tide is potentially sensitive to both sea-level rise and associated salinity increases as well as changing watershed inputs of freshwater and nutrients. We evaluated the vegetation response of tidal freshwater forested wetlands (TFFW) to changes in nontidal river versus estuarine controls along the longitudinal gradient of the Mattaponi and Pamunkey rivers in the Mid-Atlantic USA. The gradient included nontidal freshwater floodplain (NT) and upper tidal (UT), lower tidal (LT), and stressed tidal forest transitioning to marsh (ST) TFFW habitats on both rivers. Plot-based vegetation sampling and dendrochronology were employed to examine: (1) downriver shifts in plant community composition and the structure of canopy trees, understory trees/saplings/shrubs and herbs, tree basal-area increment (BAI) and (2) interannual variability in BAI from 2015 dating back as far as 1969 in relation to long-term river and estuary monitoring data. With greater tidal influence downstream, tree species dominance shifted, live basal area generally decreased, long-term mean BAI of individual trees decreased, woody stem mortality increased, and live herbaceous vegetative cover and richness increased. Acer rubrum , Fagus grandifolia , Ilex opaca , and Fraxinus pennsylvanica dominated NT and UT sites, with F. pennsylvanica and Nyssa sylvatica increasingly dominating at more downstream tidal sites. Annual tree BAI growth was positively affected by nontidal river flow at NT and UT sites which were closer to the head-of-tide, positively influenced by small salinity increases at LT and ST sites further downstream, and positively influenced by estuarine water level throughout the gradient; nutrient influence was site specific with both positive and negative influences. The counterintuitive finding of salinity increasing tree growth at sites with low BAI is likely due to either competitive growth release from neighboring tree death or enhanced soil nutrient availability that may temporarily mitigate the negative effects of low-level salinization and sea-level increases on living TFFW canopy trees, even as overall plant community conversion to tidal marsh progresses.

Virginia↗