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Groundwater quality, age, and susceptibility and vulnerability to nitrate contamination with linkages to land use and groundwater flow, Upper Black Squirrel Creek Basin, Colorado, 2013

The Upper Black Squirrel Creek Basin is located about 25 kilometers east of Colorado Springs, Colorado. The primary aquifer is a productive section of unconsolidated deposits that overlies bedrock units of the Denver Basin and is a critical resource for local water needs, including irrigation, domestic, and commercial use. The primary aquifer also serves an important regional role by the export of water to nearby communities in the Colorado Springs area. Changes in land use and development over the last decade, which includes substantial growth of subdivisions in the Upper Black Squirrel Creek Basin, have led to uncertainty regarding the potential effects to water quality throughout the basin. In response, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Cherokee Metropolitan District, El Paso County, Meridian Service Metropolitan District, Mountain View Electric Association, Upper Black Squirrel Creek Groundwater Management District, Woodmen Hills Metropolitan District, Colorado State Land Board, and Colorado Water Conservation Board, and the stakeholders represented in the Groundwater Quality Study Committee of El Paso County conducted an assessment of groundwater quality and groundwater age with an emphasis on characterizing nitrate in the groundwater. Groundwater-quality samples were collected from 50 randomly selected wells between May and June 2013. The samples were analyzed for major ions, nutrients, dissolved gases, tritium ( 3 H), chlorofluorocarbons (CFC-11, CFC-12, and CFC-113), and fuel products (such as benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylenes). None of the groundwater samples exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) National Primary Drinking Water Regulations for primary maximum contaminant levels (MCL) for major ions. Secondary maximum contaminant levels, which are not health concerns and affect mainly taste, color, or odor of the water, were observed in rare instances for pH (2 samples), chloride (1 sample), iron (3 samples), and manganese (8 samples). The secondary maximum contaminant level for total dissolved solids was also exceeded for two samples. Nitrate (nitrite plus nitrate as nitrogen in groundwater) was elevated above the estimated background concentration of natural recharge waters of 1 milligram per liter (mg/L) in 44 of the 50 wells sampled and showed a median concentration of 5.4 mg/L. Nitrate concentrations were above the MCL of 10 mg/L in 5 of the 50 wells sampled and above half of the EPA MCL (5 mg/L) in 27 of the 50 wells sampled, which included samples above the MCL. Dissolved-oxygen concentrations exceeded 0.5 mg/L in 95 percent of reported values (40 of 42 samples) and exceeded 2.0 mg/L in 90 percent of reported values (38 of 42 samples). The oxidized conditions observed in most areas indicate that nitrate from fertilizers and animal or human waste was geochemically stable and could persist in the groundwater for decades or perhaps longer. A historical analysis of median nitrate concentrations over nearly three decades showed an increase in nitrate of approximately 1 mg/L from 4.3 to 5.4 mg/L, although the increase was not determined to be significantly different using nonparametric statistical methods. Major-ion data indicate that groundwater representative of the primary aquifer was classified as calcium-sodium bicarbonate type water. Other water samples from wells located mainly along the periphery of the primary aquifer had cation-anion compositions consistent with distinct water sources, including groundwater contributions from the underlying bedrock aquifers. The areas with differentiable water sources were located mainly where alluvial deposits were thin and geologic contacts to the underlying bedrock aquifers were relatively shallow. Nitrate concentrations in the groundwater were evaluated for relations to land use. An agricultural region was defined using a sequence of land satellite imagery. Groundwater flow directions interpreted from median water-table elevations measured from 2000 to 2013 were used in conjunction with cropland locations to define the agricultural region boundaries by encompassing potential pathways of nitrate transport in the groundwater from nitrogen-based fertilizers. A statistically significant higher median nitrate concentration was observed for areas inside the agricultural region (6.7 mg/L) compared to areas outside the agricultural region (2.3 mg/L), although median concentrations in both areas were below the MCL (10 mg/L). Median nitrate concentration was also significantly greater in land parcels with septic use (4.9 mg/L) compared to nonseptic parcels (1.7 mg/L). In general, agriculture or septic use was identified as the primary source of nitrate, depending on location, while commercial, county, grazing, and residential land uses were generally secondary sources of nitrate. Apparent groundwater ages were estimated from chlorofluorocarbons (CFC-11, CFC-12, and CFC-113) and tritium ( 3 H) data using models that assumed piston flow and binary mixing (dilution of a young component with old, tracer-free water). The mean and median groundwater ages were about 30 years and the standard deviation was 6 years, indicating that most groundwater in the primary aquifer was “young” water that had recharged to the aquifer over the last few decades (post-1950s). The median fraction of young water was about 71 percent, and the standard deviation was 29 percent. The remaining water predated the 1950s, which may have originated from deeper geologic formations or may represent slow moving groundwater within the primary aquifer. Some of the oldest groundwater ages (older than 30 years) were observed in the upper reaches of the aquifer to the northwest where the primary aquifer is thin and intersects bedrock, supporting the hypothesis of geochemically distinct groundwater entering the primary aquifer from below. Groundwater that had reached the central part of the aquifer from upgradient areas of the basin was variable in age because of differences in flow paths and travel velocities. The groundwater age analysis showed that current (2013) land-use practices could affect water quality over decades to come, and that responses to remedial actions could be slow, especially for constituents, such as nitrate, that are stable under oxidized conditions. Fuel products (including acetone, benzene, diisopropyl ether, ethylbenzene, methyl acetate, methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), methyl tert-pentyl ether, m- + p-xylene, o-xylene, tert-amyl alcohol, tert-butyl alcohol, tert-butyl ethyl ether, and toluene) were analyzed in groundwater from 49 of the 50 wells. Water from seven sites had detections for fuel compounds; all concentrations were below MCL. The results provided assurance of water quality and a valuable baseline to evaluate future trends of fuel constituents as the region is further developed. Probability maps were developed from logistic regression models to examine the likelihood that nitrate concentrations in groundwater exceeded specified levels. Susceptibility analysis examined relations between mid-level (5.0 mg/L) nitrate concentrations and climatic, hydrologic, and geologic variables; the significant variables were identified as depth to groundwater, soil organic matter, and soil water storage to 25-centimeter (cm) depth. The vulnerability assessments included natural factors driving susceptibility but also human factors related to land use and septic use. Vulnerability to low-level (2.5 mg/L) nitrate was related to depth to groundwater, septic zoning, and soil organic matter. The results highlighted that septic zoning affected low-level nitrate concentrations. Vulnerability to mid-level (5.0 mg/L) nitrate was examined using all 50 samples and also with two data outliers removed, which showed relatively high nitrate concentrations but also anomalous water chemistry or were located beyond the primary study area. Vulnerability to mid-level (5.0 mg/L) nitrate using all 50 samples was related to depth to groundwater, land use, septic use within a 500-meter (m) radius, soil water storage to a 25-cm depth, soil organic matter, and whether a location was within the agricultural region. The mid-level (5.0 mg/L) vulnerability model using 48 samples (two outliers removed) produced the best overall fit and was related to the same variables as when using all samples except septic use. The results for mid-level vulnerability provided additional support that septic use was associated with low levels of nitrate in the groundwater. Soil properties and land use were identified as the main drivers of moderate nitrate concentrations. Probabilities of exceeding low-level nitrate concentrations were high in most areas with the lowest probabilities usually to the northwest along thin geologic deposits in the upper part of the basin. The results of this investigation offer the foundational information needed for developing best management practices to mitigate nitrate contamination, basic concepts on water quality to aid public education, and information to guide regulatory measures if policy makers determine this is warranted. Science-based decision making will require continued monitoring and analysis of water quality in the future.

Colorado↗

The use of traditional Hawaiian knowledge in the contemporary management of marine resources

It is traditional for Hawaiians to "consult nature" so that fishing is practiced at times and places, and with gear that causes minimum disruption of natural biological and ecological processes. The Ho'olehua Hawaiian Homestead continues this tradition in and around Mo'omomi Bay on the northwest coast of the island of Moloka'i. This community relies heavily on inshore marine resources for subsistence and consequently, has an intimate knowledge of these resources. The shared knowledge, beliefs, and values of the community are culturally channeled to promote proper fishing behavior. This informal system brings more knowledge, experience, and moral commitment to fishery conservation than more centralized government management. Community-based management in the Mo'omomi area involves observational processes and problem-solving strategies for the purpose of conservation. The system is not articulated in the manner of Western science, but relies instead on mental models. These models foster a practical understanding of local inshore resource dynamics by the fishing community and, thus, lend credibility to unwritten standards for fishing conduct. The "code of conduct" is concerned with how people fish rather than how much they catch.

Hawai'i↗

Availability of Earth observations data from the U.S. Geological Survey's EROS data center

For decades federal and state agencies have been collecting regional, continental, and global Earth observations data acquired by satellites, aircraft, and other information-gathering systems. These data include photographic and digital remotely sensed images of the Earth's surface, as well as earth science, cartographic, and geographic data. Since 1973, the U.S. Geological Survey's Earth Resources Observation Systems (EROS) Data Center (EDC) in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, has been a data management, production, dissemination, and research center for these data. Currently, the Data Center holds over 10 million satellite images and aerial photographs, in photographic and digital formats. Users are able to place inquiries and orders for these holdings via a nationwide computer network. In addition to cataloging the data stored in its archives, the Data Center provides users with rapid access to information on many data collections held by other facilities.

Pecora 12 Symposium↗

A review of current capabilities and science gaps in water supply data, modeling, and trends for water availability assessments in the Upper Colorado River Basin

The Colorado River is a critical water resource in the southwestern United States, supplying drinking water for 40 million people in the region and water for irrigation of 2.2 million hectares of land. Extended drought in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCOL) and the prospect of a warmer climate in the future pose water availability challenges for those charged with managing the river. Limited water availability in the future also may negatively affect aquatic ecosystems and wildlife that depend upon them. Water availability components of special importance in the UCOL include streamflow, salinity in groundwater and surface water, groundwater levels and storage, and the role of snow in the UCOL water cycle. This manuscript provides a review of current “state of the science” for these UCOL water availability components with a focus on identifying gaps in data, modeling, and trends in the basin. Trends provide context for evaluations of current conditions and motivation for further investigation and modeling, models allow for investigation of processes and projections of future water availability, and data support both efforts. Information summarized in this manuscript will be valuable in planning integrated assessments of water availability in the UCOL.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming↗

Putting weight to work: A review and examples of weight-based indicators in freshwater fish stock assessment

Despite being a direct measure of biomass and central to fisheries management, weight-based metrics remain underutilized in freshwater fish stock assessment. Here, we present a concise review of the application of weight in evaluating freshwater fish populations. We examine the historical use of weighing, assess how weight is applied across subdisciplines of freshwater fish science, contrast weight- and length-based approaches, and identify biases in their application. We then synthesize weight-based metrics, indices, and models within four broad categories—population and community weight structure; condition, growth, and efficiency; reproductive potential and production; and yield and exploitation dynamics—highlighting approaches that inform fish ecology, population and community dynamics, and vital rates. We conclude by identifying key opportunities and methodological innovations needed to expand the effective use of weight-based metrics in freshwater fish conservation and management.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗

Mapping presence and predicting phenological status of invasive buffelgrass in southern Arizona using MODIS, climate and citizen science observation data

The increasing spread and abundance of an invasive perennial grass, buffelgrass ( Pennisetum ciliare ), represents a critical threat to the native vegetation communities of the Sonoran desert in southern Arizona, USA, where buffelgrass eradication is a high priority for resource managers. Herbicidal treatment of buffelgrass is most effective when the vegetation is actively growing, but the remoteness of infestations and the erratic timing and length of the species’ growth periods confound effective treatment. The goal of our research is to promote buffelgrass management by using remote sensing data to detect where the invasive plants are located and when they are photosynthetically active. We integrated citizen scientist observations of buffelgrass phenology in the Tucson, Arizona area with PRISM precipitation data, eight-day composites of 250-m Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite imagery, and aerially-mapped polygons of buffelgrass presence to understand dynamics and relationships between precipitation and the timing and amount of buffelgrass greenness from 2011 to 2013. Our results show that buffelgrass responds quickly to antecedent rainfall: in pixels containing buffelgrass, higher correlations (R 2 > 0.5) typically occur after two cumulative eight-day periods of rain, whereas in pixels dominated by native vegetation, four prior 8-day periods are required to reach that threshold. Using the new suite of phenometrics introduced here—Climate Landscape Response metrics—we accurately predicted the location of 49% to 55% of buffelgrass patches in Saguaro National Park. These metrics and the suggested guidelines for their use can be employed by resource managers to treat buffelgrass during optimal time periods.

Arizona↗

U.S. Geological Survey Science for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative - 2008 Annual Report

The Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI) was launched in 2007 in response to concerns about threats to the State's world class wildlife resources, especially the threat posed by rapidly increasing energy development in southwest Wyoming. The overriding purpose of the WLCI is to assess and enhance aquatic and terrestrial habitats at a landscape scale, while facilitating responsible energy and other types of development. The WLCI includes partners from Federal, State, and local agencies, with participation from public and private entities, industry, and landowners. As a principal WLCI partner, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) provides multidisciplinary scientific and technical support to inform decisionmaking in the WLCI. To address WLCI management needs, USGS has designed and implemented five integrated work activities: (1) Baseline Synthesis, (2) Targeted Monitoring and Research, (3) Integration and Coordination, (4) Data and Information Management, and (5) Decisionmaking and Evaluation. Ongoing information management of data and products acquired or generated through the integrated work activities will ensure that crucial scientific information is available to partners and stakeholders in a readily accessible and useable format for decisionmaking and evaluation. Significant progress towards WLCI goals has been achieved in many Science and Technical Assistance tasks of the work activities. Available data were identified, acquired, compiled, and integrated into a comprehensive database for use by WLCI partners and to support USGS science activities. A Web-based platform for sharing these data and products has been developed and is already in use. Numerous map products have been completed and made available to WLCI partners, and other products are in progress. Initial conceptual, habitat, and climate change models have been developed or refined. Monitoring designs for terrestrial and aquatic indicators have been completed, pilot data have been collected for terrestrial indicators, and evaluations of alternative monitoring designs are underway. Initial models and map products have been developed for assessing vegetation, surface disturbance, oil and gas resources, mineral resources, surficial geology, invasive species, aspen treatments, ungulate migration corridors, greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus), pygmy rabbits (Brachylagus idahoensis), and songbirds, and data were collected or compiled to validate and refine the models. Coordination and collaboration among partners has led to the production of several documents addressing WLCI objectives, strategies, and guiding principles, and has facilitated implementation of on-the-ground habitat treatments.

Open-File Report↗

An introduction to decision science for conservation

Biodiversity conservation decisions are difficult, especially when they involve differing values, complex multidimensional objectives, scarce resources, urgency, and considerable uncertainty. Decision science embodies a theory about how to make difficult decisions and an extensive array of frameworks and tools that make that theory practical. We sought to improve conceptual clarity and practical application of decision science to help decision makers apply decision science to conservation problems. We addressed barriers to the uptake of decision science, including a lack of training and awareness of decision science; confusion over common terminology and which tools and frameworks to apply; and the mistaken impression that applying decision science must be time consuming, expensive, and complex. To aid in navigating the extensive and disparate decision science literature, we clarify meaning of common terms: decision science , decision theory , decision analysis , structured decision-making , and decision-support tools . Applying decision science does not have to be complex or time consuming; rather, it begins with knowing how to think through the components of a decision utilizing decision analysis (i.e., define the problem, elicit objectives, develop alternatives, estimate consequences, and perform trade-offs). This is best achieved by applying a rapid-prototyping approach. At each step, decision-support tools can provide additional insight and clarity, whereas decision-support frameworks (e.g., priority threat management and systematic conservation planning) can aid navigation of multiple steps of a decision analysis for particular contexts. We summarize key decision-support frameworks and tools and describe to which step of a decision analysis, and to which contexts, each is most useful to apply. Our introduction to decision science will aid in contextualizing current approaches and new developments, and help decision makers begin to apply decision science to conservation problems.

Conservation Biology↗

Organizing environmental flow frameworks to meet hydropower mitigation needs

The global recognition of the importance of natural flow regimes to sustain the ecological integrity of river systems has led to increased societal pressure on the hydropower industry to change plant operations to improve downstream aquatic ecosystems. However, a complete reinstatement of natural flow regimes is often unrealistic when balancing water needs for ecosystems, energy production, and other human uses. Thus, stakeholders must identify a prioritized subset of flow prescriptions that meet ecological objectives in light of realistic constraints. Yet, isolating aspects of flow regimes to restore downstream of hydropower facilities is among the greatest challenges of environmental flow science due, in part, to the sheer volume of available environmental flow tools in conjunction with complex negotiation-based regulatory procedures. Herein, we propose an organizational framework that structures information and existing flow paradigms into a staged process that assists stakeholders in implementing environmental flows for hydropower facilities. The framework identifies areas where regulations fall short of the needed scientific process, and provide suggestions for stakeholders to ameliorate those situations through advanced preparation. We highlight the strengths of existing flow paradigms in their application to hydropower settings and suggest when and where tools are most applicable. Our suggested framework increases the effectiveness and efficiency of the e-flow implementation process by rapidly establishing a knowledge base and decreasing uncertainty so more time can be devoted to filling knowledge gaps. Lastly, the framework provides the structure for a coordinated research agenda to further the science of environmental flows related to hydropower environments.

Environmental Management↗

Life history, genetics, range expansion and new frontiers of the lionfish (Pterois volitans, Perciformes: Pteroidae) in Latin America

Pterois volitans (lionfish) is a midsize predatory fish commonly found in waters of the western Pacific and Indian Ocean. The species was first documented in Dania Beach, Florida (northwestern Caribbean) in 1985. Since that time the species has expanded its range rapidly to the Northwestern Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean Sea. Since its introduction P. volitans has changed community structure and biodiversity of Caribbean reef communities and other coastal tropical ecosystems. Continuous introductions (accidental or intentional), limited natural predators, naïve-range prey behavior, high predation rates on competitors, continuous reproduction, and an extended period of larval dispersal have been the keys for successful invasion and rapid range extension of P. volitans . This invasion has become so severe that it has been recognized as one of the world’s top conservation issues. Here, we review the life history, behavior, and historical and contemporary genetic patterns that facilitate expansion and the colonization process. A greater understanding of lionfish biology, ecology, and the changes related to its present condition as a super-invader could improve current and future management strategies and new detection and response methodologies. We also examine new invasion frontiers that this species has the potential to colonize such as the eastern Pacific. This information will provide managers, the scientific community, and the civil society better tools for eradication, control and management of future invasions of this and other invasive species.

Caribbean Sea, Latin America↗

Streamflow regime characterization in the changing boreal ecosystem: Wildfire impacts from stream-to-regional scales

The boreal ecosystem has experienced significant changes over recent decades as wildfires become more frequent, intense, and severe. As streams are highly prevalent and ecologically relevant, understanding interactions among wildfire and hydrologic patterns is important for effective aquatic ecosystem management. This study used a Bayesian mixture model to classify streamflow regimes from modeled streamflow data for 32,730 stream reaches (totaling 295,880 km) across the Yukon and Kuskokwim basins and the Northwestern Boreal Ecosystem in Alaska, USA, and Yukon Territory, Canada. We assessed time since burn and calculated the total length of stream (km) within burn perimeters for each streamflow class from 1985 to 2015. Additionally, we used field observations (2018–2022) to compare streamflow regimes in four burned and four unburned headwater streams (drainage basins ≤150 km 2 ) in interior Alaska. Modeled stream reaches were grouped into twenty-two classes and reduced to eleven metaclasses based on similarities in streamflow statistics. These metaclasses formed two broad groups: 1) large rivers with lower variability and strong seasonal signals, and 2) mid- to small-sized tributaries with high variability, frequent high flow events, and weaker seasonal signals. The stream length burned analysis indicated an average increase of 47 km per year with first- and second-order streams experiencing more frequent fire. Empirical streamflow metrics from headwater stream gages revealed additional differences in streamflow patterns between burned and unburned streams. This streamflow classification establishes a baseline for understanding boreal stream responses to wildfire, detecting climate-induced regime shifts, and facilitating management and conservation of important boreal aquatic species.

Alaska↗

Metal and sediment ingestion by dabbling ducks

The chemical analysis of intestinal digesta from hunter-killed carcasses or of wildlife scat is a promising means of estimating the exposure of wildlife to those environmental contaminants that, like lead, are poorly absorbed in the digestive tract. When evaluating contaminants at a site, biologists may find the results of this non-destructive approach more straightforward to interpret in terms of exposure to wildlife than would be analyses of soils, sediments, water, or wildlife tissues. To illustrate the approach, we collected digesta from 47 waterfowl shot by hunters at Prime Hook National Wildlife Refuge, in Delaware, USA. The waterfowl digesta contained an average of approximately 2.4% sediment, estimated from the Al concentrations in the digesta, a marker for sediment. Al concentrations were significantly correlated with concentrations of Cr (Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient, r= 0.57), V ( r =0.70), Ni ( r =0.31), and Pb ( r =0.55), and we concluded that these metals were ingested mainly with sediment. American widgeon ( Anas americana ) ingested sediment at a rate of about four times that of three other species of dabbling ducks ( Anas crecca , A. acuta , A. rubripes ) and had several times the exposure to the sediment-associated metals. The digesta of one American black duck contained a high concentration of lead (70 mg/kg, dry wt.), presumably from lead shot, but none of the other samples had notably elevated metal concentrations. We suggest that scat and digesta be analyzed more widely by biologists and resource managers seeking a simple, inexpensive assessment of contaminants in local wildlife habitat.

Science of the Total Environment↗

Tet and sul antibiotic resistance genes in livestock lagoons of various operation type, configuration, and antibiotic occurrence

Although livestock operations are known to harbor elevated levels of antibiotic resistant bacteria, few studies have examined the potential of livestock waste lagoons to reduce antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs). The purpose of this study was to determine the prevalence and examine the behavior of tetracycline [tet(O) and tet(W)] and sulfonamide [sul(I) and su/(II)] ARGsin a broad cross-section of livestock lagoons within the same semiarid western watershed. ARGs were monitored for one year in the water and the settled solids of eight lagoon systems by quantitative polymerase chain reaction. In addition, antibiotic residues and various bulk water quality constituents were analyzed. It was found that the lagoons of the chicken layer operation had the lowest concentrations of both tet and sul ARGs and low total antibiotic concentrations, whereas su ARGs were highest in the swine lagoons, which generally corresponded to the highest total antibiotic concentrations. A marginal benefit of organic and small dairy operations also was observed compared to conventional and large dairies, respectively. In all lagoons, su ARGs were observed to be generally more recalcitrant than tet ARGs. Also, positive correlations of various bulk water quality constituents were identified with tet ARGs but not sul ARGs. Significant positive correlations were identified between several metals and tet ARGs, but Pearson's correlation coefficients were mostly lower than those determined between antibiotic residues and ARGs. This study represents a quantitative characterization of ARGs in lagoons across a variety of livestock operations and provides insight into potential options for managing antibiotic resistance emanating from agricultural activities.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

Salting behaviors influence urban stream conductivity in Boston, Massachusetts (USA)

Freshwater salinization is a major concern in temperate climates where road salt is used as a deicer to manage snow and ice on roadways. In urban and suburban areas, wastewater, weathering of infrastructure, and salting on parking lots and sidewalks can also contribute to salt contamination, but little is known about how well these sources explain variation in stream conductivity and what factors may mitigate high conductivity in streams. We collected specific conductance samples seasonally over 1 y at 100 stream sites in the greater Boston (Massachusetts, USA) metropolitan area, which reflected a gradient of land use/cover and sociodemographic variables. We also continuously monitored specific conductance over 1 y (November 2021–December 2022) at 3 streams with different levels of impervious cover. Baseflow conductivity from grab samples was best explained by % impervious cover (positive relationship) and season (highest median conductivity in summer and early autumn) ( r 2 = 0.47, p < 0.001). At high impervious cover, watersheds with higher housing vacancy had lower conductivity, suggesting that resident salting behavior may affect conductivity. Continuous conductivity varied with discharge, with spikes in conductivity coincident with increases in discharge in the winter, likely due to the influx of road salt into waterways. In the summer, higher discharge was linked with sharp decreases in conductivity, suggesting that storm flows dilute high baseflow conductivity, although combined sewer overflows caused secondary conductivity pulses. Overall, conductivity was highest during winter storm pulses, but elevated conductivity levels persisted throughout the year, especially in more impervious watersheds. Our research suggests that reduced salt application and street sweeping may reduce conductivity but will not prevent continued salinization. Temporal patterns of conductivity highlight the importance of seasonal road-salt application (winter), seasonal climate (low-flow summers), and precipitation (storm events, droughts) in influencing stream conductivity and can guide monitoring design, policymaking, and management decisions under climate uncertainty.

Massachusetts↗

When environmentally persistent pathogens transform good habitat into ecological traps

Habitat quality plays an important role in the dynamics and stability of wildlife metapopulations. However, the benefits of high-quality habitat may be modulated by the presence of an environmentally persistent pathogen. In some cases, the presence of environmental pathogen reservoirs on high-quality habitat may lead to the creation of ecological traps, wherein host individuals preferentially colonize high-quality habitat, but are then exposed to increased infection risk and disease-induced mortality. We explored this possibility through the development of a stochastic patch occupancy model, where we varied the pathogen&rsquo;s virulence, transmission rate and environmental persistence as well as the distribution of habitat quality in the host metapopulation. This model suggests that for pathogens with intermediate levels of spread, high-quality habitat can serve as an ecological trap, and can be detrimental to host persistence relative to low-quality habitat. This inversion of the relative roles of high- and low-quality habitat highlights the importance of considering the interaction between spatial structure and pathogen transmission when managing wildlife populations exposed to an environmentally persistent pathogen.

Royal Society Open Science↗

Semi-arid vegetation response to antecedent climate and water balance windows

Questions Can we improve understanding of vegetation response to water availability on monthly time scales in semi-arid environments using remote sensing methods? What climatic or water balance variables and antecedent windows of time associated with these variables best relate to the condition of vegetation? Can we develop credible near-term forecasts from climate data that can be used to prepare for future climate change effects on vegetation? Location Semi-arid grasslands in Capitol Reef National Park, Utah, USA. Methods We built vegetation response models by relating the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from MODIS imagery in Mar&ndash;Nov 2000&ndash;2013 to antecedent climate and water balance variables preceding the monthly NDVI observations. We compared how climate and water balance variables explained vegetation greenness and then used a multi-model ensemble of climate and water balance models to forecast monthly NDVI for three holdout years. Results Water balance variables explained vegetation greenness to a greater degree than climate variables for most growing season months. Seasonally important variables included measures of antecedent water input and storage in spring, switching to indicators of drought, input or use in summer, followed by antecedent moisture availability in autumn. In spite of similar climates, there was evidence the grazed grassland showed a response to drying conditions 1 mo sooner than the ungrazed grassland. Lead times were generally short early in the growing season and antecedent window durations increased from 3 mo early in the growing season to 1 yr or more as the growing season progressed. Forecast accuracy for three holdout years using a multi-model ensemble of climate and water balance variables outperformed forecasts made with a na&iuml;ve NDVI climatology. Conclusions We determined the influence of climate and water balance on vegetation at a fine temporal scale, which presents an opportunity to forecast vegetation response with short lead times. This understanding was obtained through high-frequency vegetation monitoring using remote sensing, which reduces the costs and time necessary for field measurements and can lead to more rapid detection of vegetation changes that could help managers take appropriate actions.

Applied Vegetation Science↗

Legacy effects of no-analogue disturbances alter plant community diversity and composition in semi-arid sagebrush steppe

Questions (i) What role does the type of managed disturbance play in structuring sagebrush steppe plant communities? (ii) How does the composition of post-disturbance plant communities change with time since disturbance? (iii) Does plant community diversity change over time following managed disturbance? Location Field study within the sagebrush steppe ecosystem. Rich County, Utah, USA. Methods We developed a chronosequence spanning up to 50 yrs post-treatment to study sagebrush steppe vegetation dynamics. Direct ordination was used to examine plant community composition by managed disturbance type and time since disturbance, and factorial analysis of covariance was used to examine diversity dynamics following disturbance. Indicator species values were calculated in order to identify characteristic species for each disturbance type. Results Plant communities experienced a shift toward distinct community composition for each of the three managed disturbance types, and gave no indication of returning to untreated community composition or diversity. Small post-disturbance increases in the number of non-native grass species were observed in the treatments relative to reference, with native forb species making the largest contribution to altered composition. On fire- and chemically-treated sites the proportional native forb species richness increased over time since disturbance, while the proportional contribution of non-native forbs to total species richness decreased. For all three treatment types, native grasses contributed less on average to total richness than on reference sites, while non-native grasses made up a higher proportion of total richness. Conclusions Common shrubland management techniques have legacy effects on the composition and diversity of sagebrush steppe plant communities, and no-analogue disturbances, such as chemical or mechanical treatments, have more pronounced legacy effects than treatments similar to natural disturbance regimes (fire). This study informs a broader understanding of how management actions affect natural systems by highlighting the importance of long-term management legacies as drivers of plant community structure and function.

Utah↗

Temperate forest health in an era of emerging megadisturbance

Although disturbances such as fire and native insects can contribute to natural dynamics of forest health, exceptional droughts, directly and in combination with other disturbance factors, are pushing some temperate forests beyond thresholds of sustainability. Interactions from increasing temperatures, drought, native insects and pathogens, and uncharacteristically severe wildfire are resulting in forest mortality beyond the levels of 20th-century experience. Additional anthropogenic stressors, such as atmospheric pollution and invasive species, further weaken trees in some regions. Although continuing climate change will likely drive many areas of temperate forest toward large-scale transformations, management actions can help ease transitions and minimize losses of socially valued ecosystem services.

Science↗