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The 2014 annual report for the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory

Introduction This report summarizes team activities and findings of the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory during the year 2014 in geology, geodesy, seismicity, and gas geochemistry. The eruption of Pu‘u ‘Ō‘ō continued into its 32nd year with flows active to the northeast of the vent. One of them, the June 27th lava flow, named for the date in 2014 that the flow started, advanced far and fast enough to threaten the town of Pāhoa and Highway 130 in the Puna District of the Island of Hawai‘i. In response, the alert level for Kīlauea was elevated from WATCH to WARNING on September 4, followed by the declaration of a State Disaster on September 5 and a National Disaster on November 3. During 2014, renewed inflation and increased seismicity was detected beneath the summit and upper west flank of Mauna Loa. Although above background, the frequency and magnitude of the earthquakes remained at such low levels that, by year’s end, the four-tier alert level code for Mauna Loa remained at its lowest level—NORMAL. These changes were discussed in several Volcano Watch articles. Hualālai, Haleakalā, Mauna Kea, and Lo‘īhi showed no signs of unrest during the year.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Introduction and methods of analysis for peak streamflow trends and their relation to changes in climate in Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin

Flood-frequency analysis, also called peak-flow frequency or flood-flow frequency analysis, is essential to water resources management applications including critical structure design and floodplain mapping. Federal guidelines for doing flood-frequency analyses are presented in a U.S. Geological Survey Techniques and Methods Report known as Bulletin 17C. A basic assumption within Bulletin 17C is that for drainage basins without major hydrologic alterations, statistical properties of the distribution of annual peak streamflows (peak flows) are stationary; that is, the mean, variance, and skew are constant. The stationarity assumption has been widely accepted within the flood-frequency community; however, a better understanding of long-term climatic persistence and concerns about potential climate change and land-use change has caused a reexamination of the stationarity assumption. Flood-frequency analyses that do not incorporate observed trends and abrupt changes may result in a poor representation of the true flood risk. Bulletin 17C does not offer guidance for incorporating nonstationarities when estimating floods, and it describes a need for studies that incorporate changing climate or basin characteristics. In response to this need and a history of concern regarding nonstationarity peak flows in the region, this study was done by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Departments of Transportation of Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, South Dakota, and Wisconsin; the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation; and the North Dakota Department of Water Resources, to assess potential nonstationarity in peak flows in the north-central United States. This chapter summarizes the methods used to detect hydroclimatic changes in peak-flow data in the study region. A wide range of analyses and statistical approaches are applied to document the primary mechanisms controlling floods and characterize temporal changes in hydroclimatic variables and peak flow. Four periods were selected for analysis of peak flow, daily streamflow, and climate data. The periods are (1) a 100-year period, 1921–2020; (2) a 75-year period, 1946–2020; (3) a 50-year period, 1971–2020; and (4) a 30-year period, 1991–2020. The climate data consist of monthly time series estimates of temperature, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, snowfall, soil moisture storage, snow water equivalent, and runoff on a 3.1-mile by 3.1-mile grid for the conterminous United States. Statistical and graphical analyses were used to investigate potential changes in hydrology and climate. The starting point for these analyses was the initial data analysis of peak flow described in Bulletin 17C, which includes plotting the peak flow and checking for autocorrelation, monotonic trends, and changes points. Analyses were added to examine additional features in the data. To examine potential causal drivers of changes, the climate data were analyzed graphically and statistically. Results are provided in a U.S. Geological Survey data release. The study limitations are documented for users of the results.

Iowa, Illinois, Michigan, Missouri, Minnesota, Mon↗

Numerical simulation of groundwater flow in the Columbia Plateau Regional Aquifer System, Idaho, Oregon, and Washington

A three-dimensional numerical model of groundwater flow was constructed for the Columbia Plateau Regional Aquifer System (CPRAS), Idaho, Oregon, and Washington, to evaluate and test the conceptual model of the system and to evaluate groundwater availability. The model described in this report can be used as a tool by water-resource managers and other stakeholders to quantitatively evaluate proposed alternative management strategies and assess the long‑term availability of groundwater. The numerical simulation of groundwater flow in the CPRAS was completed with support from the Groundwater Resources Program of the U.S. Geological Survey Office of Groundwater. The model was constructed using the U.S. Geological Survey modular three-dimensional finite-difference groundwater-flow model, MODFLOW-NWT. The model uses 3-kilometer (9,842.5 feet) grid cells that subdivide the model domain by 126 rows and 131 columns. Vertically, the model domain was subdivided into six geologic model units. From youngest to oldest, the units are the Overburden, the Saddle Mountains Basalt, the Mabton Interbed, the Wanapum Basalt, the Vantage Interbed, and the Grande Ronde Basalt. Natural recharge was estimated using gridded historical estimates of annual precipitation for the period 1895–2007. Pre-development recharge was estimated to be the average natural recharge for this period. Irrigation recharge and irrigation pumping were estimated using a remote-sensing based soil-water balance model for the period 1985–2007. Pre-1985 irrigation recharge and pumping were estimated using previously published compilation maps and the history of large-scale irrigation projects. Pumping estimates for municipal, industrial, rural, residential, and all other uses were estimated using reported values and census data. Pumping was assumed to be negligible prior to 1920. Two models were constructed to simulate groundwater flow in the CPRAS: a steady-state predevelopment model representing conditions before large-scale pumping and irrigation altered the system, and a transient model representing the period 1900–2007. Automated parameter-estimation techniques (steady-state predevelopment model) and traditional trial-and-error (transient model) methods were used for calibration. To calibrate the steady-state and transient models, 10,525 and 46,460 water level measurements, respectively, and 50 base-flow estimates were used. The steady-state model simulated the shape, slope, and trends of a potentiometric surface that was generally consistent with mapped water levels. For the transient model, the mean and median difference between simulated and measured hydraulic heads is -10 and 4 ft, respectively, with a standard deviation of 164 ft over a 5,648 ft range of measured heads. The residuals for the simulation period show that 52 percent of the simulated heads exceeded measured heads with a median residual value of 43 ft, and 48 percent were less than measured heads with a median residual value of -76 ft. The CPRAS model was constructed to derive components of the groundwater budget and help understand the interactions of stresses, such as recharge, groundwater pumping, and commingling wells on the groundwater and surface-water system. Through these applications, the model can be used to identify trends in groundwater storage and use, and quantify groundwater availability. The annual groundwater budgets showed several patterns of change over the simulation period. Groundwater pumping was negligible until the 1950s and began to increase significantly during the 1970s and 1980s. Recharge was highly variable due to the interannual variability of precipitation, but began to increase in the late 1940s due to the increase in surface-water irrigation projects. Groundwater contributions to streamflow (base flow) followed recharge closely. However, in areas of significant groundwater-level decline, base flow is reduced. Groundwater pumping had the greatest effect on water levels, followed by irrigation enhanced recharge. Commingling was a larger factor in structurally complex upland areas where hydraulic-head gradients are naturally high. Groundwater pumping has increased substantially over the past 40–50 years; this increase resulted in declining water levels at depth and decreased base flows over much of the study area. The effects of pumping are mitigated somewhat by the increase of surface-water irrigation, especially in the shallow Overburden unit, and commingling wells in some areas. During dry to average years, groundwater pumping causes a net loss of groundwater in storage and current condition (2000–2007) groundwater pumping exceeds recharge in all but the wettest of years.

Idaho, Oregon, Washington↗

Channel Evolution on the Lower Elwha River, Washington, 1939-2006

Analyses of historical aerial photographs of the lower Elwha River, Clallam County, Washington, reveal rates and patterns of channel change in this dammed, anabranching river between 1939 and 2006. Absolute positional changes of the active-floodplain margins, which commonly exceeded 50 m over that interval, have exceeded 400 m locally. Annualized rates of channel movement were typically ~2 to 10 m/yr; higher annualized rates over some time intervals are attributable to the formation of new channels by episodic avulsion. Channel movement by more gradual lateral meander migration was also common. Anthropogenic modification of the floodplain between the 1940s and 1980s substantially altered channel form and position. This analysis of rates and patterns of channel change over nearly 70 years on the lower Elwha River is intended to characterize the evolution of the river throughout most of the time interval when two large dams have been in place upstream. Channel morphology and rates of channel movement are expected to change significantly in response to removal of the dams and re-establishment of the upstream sediment supply during a major river-restoration project.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Hydrologic effects of potential changes in climate, water use, and land cover in the Upper Scioto River Basin, Ohio

This report presents the results of a study to provide information on the hydrologic effects of potential 21st-century changes in climate, water use, and land cover in the Upper Scioto River Basin, Ohio (from Circleville, Ohio, to the headwaters). A precipitation-runoff model, calibrated on the basis of historical climate and streamflow data, was used to simulate the effects of climate change on streamflows and reservoir water levels at several locations in the basin. Two levels of simulations were done. The first level of simulation (level 1) accounted only for anticipated 21st-century changes in climate and operations of three City of Columbus upground reservoirs located in northwest Delaware County, Ohio. The second level of simulation (level 2) accounted for development-driven changes in land cover and water use in addition to changes in climate and reservoir operations. A statistical change-factor approach was used to construct future climate time series that were used in the precipitation-runoff model to compute time series of future streamflows and reservoir water levels. Monthly change factors were computed by determining differences or fractional changes between baseline historical climate time series and future climate time series consisting of outputs from selected global climate models that were included in the World Climate Research Programme’s Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3). Eight sets of change factors were determined on the basis of outputs from four global climate models, each of which was run under two greenhouse-gas scenarios (the “A1b” and “A2” scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s 4th assessment). The 4 global climate models whose data were used in this study were selected to represent a wide range of potential climate outcomes as compared to the entire range of potential climate outcomes associated with the 16 global climate models represented in the CMIP3 multimodel dataset. Future land-cover and water-use data were estimated for use in the level-2 precipitation-runoff simulations to account for development-driven changes in land cover and water use. Future land-cover characteristics were estimated for selected future years based on population projections and zoning plans for communities in the basin. Future water-use data for major water suppliers and wastewater-treatment facilities were estimated from current per capita water use, population projections for 2035, and population projections for 2090 assuming full build-out. A statistical change-factor-based approach was used to estimate future water-use characteristics by major water suppliers and wastewater-treatment facilities on the basis of reference-period historical water uses. Annual change factors that were determined for future years other than 2035 and 2090 (when the change factors could be explicitly computed) were estimated by interpolating or extrapolating linearly in time. Water uses by entities other than major water suppliers and wastewater-treatment facilities were assumed to remain unchanged because of uncertainty about if and (or) how they might change. Results from the level-1 simulations were analyzed primarily to facilitate evaluation of climate-driven temporal changes in annual, seasonal, and monthly streamflow and water-level characteristics, as well as in maximum and minimum 7-, 30-, and 180-day average streamflow and reservoir water levels. Results from the level-2 simulations were analyzed to help evaluate and contrast (relative to level-1 results) the effects of the added development-related factors on maximums and minimum 7-, 30-, and 180-day average streamflows and reservoir water levels and duration characteristics of 7- and 30-day average streamflows and reservoir water levels. Results for 12 stream locations and 5 reservoirs in the Upper Scioto River Basin are presented primarily as a series of plots. Although it is beyond the scope of this study to address results in detail for each model-output location, selected results are discussed to illustrate potential uses and interpretations of the graph products provided in this report. In addition, general trends and patterns in streamflow and water-level characteristics are identified where possible.

Ohio↗

Streamflow gains and losses along San Francisquito Creek and characterization of surface-water and ground-water quality, southern San Mateo and northern Santa Clara counties, California, 1996-97

San Francisquito Creek is an important source of recharge to the 22-square-mile San Francisquito Creek alluvial fan ground-water subbasin in the southern San Mateo and northern Santa Clara Counties of California. Ground water supplies as much as 20 percent of the water to some area communities. Local residents are concerned that infiltration and consequently ground-water recharge would be reduced if additional flood-control measures are implemented along San Francisquito Creek. To improve the understanding of the surface-water/ground-water interaction between San Francisquito Creek and the San Francisquito Creek alluvial fan, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) estimated streamflow gains and losses along San Francisquito Creek and determined the chemical quality and isotopic composition of surface and ground water in the study area.Streamflow was measured at 13 temporary streamflow-measurement stations to determine streamflow gains and losses along a 8.4-mile section of San Francisquito Creek. A series of five seepage runs between April 1996 and May 1997 indicate that losses in San Francisquito Creek were negligible until it crossed the Pulgas Fault at Sand Hill Road. Streamflow losses increased between Sand Hill Road and Middlefield Road where the alluvial deposits are predominantly coarse-grained and the water table is below the bottom of the channel. The greatest streamflow losses were measured along a 1.8-mile section of the creek between the San Mateo Drive bike bridge and Middlefield Road; average losses between San Mateo Drive and Alma Street and from there to Middlefield Road were 3.1 and 2.5 acre-feet per day, respectively.Downstream from Middlefield Road, streamflow gains and losses owing to seepage may be masked by urban runoff, changes in bank storage, and tidal effects from San Francisco Bay. Streamflow gains measured between Middlefield Road and the 1200 block of Woodland Avenue may be attributable to urban runoff and (or) ground-water inflow. Water-level measurements from nearby wells indicate that the regional water table may coincide with the channel bottom along this reach of San Francisquito Creek, particularly during the winter and early spring when water levels usually reach their maximum. Streamflow losses resumed below the 1200 block of Woodland Avenue, extending downstream to Newell Road. Discharge from a large storm drain between Newell Road and East Bayshore Road may account for the streamflow gains measured between these sites. Streamflow gains were measured between East Bayshore Road and the Palo Alto Municipal Golf Course, but this reach is difficult to characterize because of the probable influence of high tides.Estimated average streamflow losses totaled approximately 1,050 acre-feet per year for the reaches between USGS stream gage 11164500 at Stanford University (upstream of Junipero Serra Boulevard) and the Palo Alto Municipal Golf Course, including approximately 595 acre-feet per year for the 1.8-mile section between San Mateo Drive and Middlefield Road. Approximately 58 percent, or 550 acre-feet, of the total estimated average annual recharge from San Francisquito Creek occurs between the San Mateo Drive and Middlefield Road sites.The chemical composition of San Francisquito Creek water varies as a function of seasonal changes in hydrologic conditions. Measurements of specific conductance indicate that during dry weather and low flow, the dissolved-solids concentrations tends to be high, and during wet weather, the concentration tends to be low owing to dilution by surface water. Compared with water samples from upstream sites at USGS stream gage 11164500 and San Mateo Drive, the samples from the downstream sites at Alma Street and Woodland Avenue had low specific conductance; low concentrations of magnesium, sodium, sulfate, chloride, boron, and total dissolved solids; high nutrient concentrations; and light isotopic compositions indicating that urban runoff constitutes most of the streamflow

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Aquifer characteristics, water availability, and water quality of the Quaternary aquifer, Osage County, northeastern Oklahoma, 2001-2002

Additional sources of water are needed on the Osage Reservation for future growth and development. The Quaternary aquifer along the Arkansas River in the Osage Reservation may represent a substantial water resource, but limited amounts of hydrogeologic data were available for the aquifer. The study area is about 116 square miles of the Quaternary aquifer in the Arkansas River valley and the nearby upland areas along the Osage Reservation. The study area included the Arkansas River reach downstream from Kaw Lake near Ponca City, Oklahoma to upstream from Keystone Lake near Cleveland, Oklahoma. Electrical conductivity logs were produced for 103 test holes. Water levels were determined for 49 test holes, and 105 water samples were collected for water-quality field analyses at 46 test holes. Water-quality data included field measurements of specific conductance, pH, water temperature, dissolved oxygen, and nitrate (nitrite plus nitrate as nitrogen). Sediment cores were extracted from 20 of the 103 test holes. The Quaternary aquifer consists of alluvial and terrace deposits of sand, silt, clay, and gravel. The measured thickness of the alluvium ranged from 13.7 to 49.8 feet. The measured thickness of the terrace sediments ranged from 7 to 93.8 feet. The saturated thickness of all sediments ranged from 0 to 38.2 feet with a median of 24.8 feet. The weighted-mean grain size for cores from the alluvium ranged from 3.69 to 0.64 f, (0.08- 0.64 millimeter), and ranged from 4.02 to 2.01 f (0.06-0.25 millimeter) for the cores from terrace deposits. The mean of the weighted-mean grain sizes for cores from the alluvium was 1.67 f (0.31 millimeter), and the terrace deposits was 2.73 f (0.15 millimeter). The hydraulic conductivity calculated from grain size of the alluvium ranged from 2.9 to 6,000 feet per day and of the terrace deposits ranged from 2.9 to 430 feet per day. The calculated transmissivity of the alluvium ranged from 2,000 to 26,000 feet squared per day with a median of 5,100 feet squared per day. Water in storage in the alluvium was estimated to be approximately 200,000 acre-feet. The amount of water annually recharging the aquifer was estimated to be approximately 4,800 acre-feet. Specific conductance for all water samples ranged from 161 to 6,650 microsiemens per centimeter. Median specific conductance for the alluvium was 683 microsiemens per centimeter and for the terrace deposits was 263 microsiemens per centimeter. Dissolved-solids concentrations, estimated from specific conductance, for water samples from the aquifer ranged from 88 to 3,658 milligrams per liter. Estimated median dissolved- solids concentration for the alluvium was 376 milligrams per liter and for the terrace deposits was 145 milligrams per liter. More than half of the samples from the Quaternary aquifer were estimated to contain less than 500 milligrams per liter dissolved solids. Field-screened nitrate concentrations for the sampling in December 2001-August 2002 ranged from 0 to 15 milligrams per liter. The field-screened nitrate concentrations for the second sampling in September 2002 were less than corresponding laboratory reported values.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Techniques for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods in the Dallas - Fort Worth metropolitan area, Texas

Equations for predicting the magnitude and frequency of floods in the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area were developed from recorded data from streams with drainage areas ranging in size from 1.25 to 66.4 square miles. The U. S. Geological Survey urban rainfall-runoff model was used to generate long-term flood-discharge record for gaged streams in the area. Simulated and recorded annual-peak data were subjected independently to log Pearson III frequency analyses. The results were weighted to determine appropriate discharges for selected 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year recurrence intervals. These T-year values were then used as the dependent variables in a multiple regression analysis. The independent variable determined to be statistically significant and retained in the resulting equations were drainage area and an urbanization index that expresses the degree of urban development. Analysis of the results shows that a land-use change from rural to fully urbanized is accompanied by a 180% increase in discharge of a flood with a 5-year recurrence interval and about 100% increase in discharge of a flood with a 100-year recurrence interval.

Texas↗

Relation of Land Use to Streamflow and Water Quality at Selected Sites in the City of Charlotte and Mecklenburg County, North Carolina, 1993-98

Streamflow and water-quality data were collected at nine sites in the city of Charlotte and Mecklenburg County, North Carolina, during 1993–97. Six of the basins drained areas having relatively homogeneous land use and were less than 0.3 square mile in size; the other three basins had mixed land use. Atmospheric wet-deposition data were collected in three of the basins during 1997–98. Streamflow yield varied by a factor of six among the sites, despite the fact that sites were in close proximity to one another. The lowest yield occurred in a residential basin having no curbs and gutters. The variability in mean flow from these small, relatively homogeneous basins is much greater than is found in streams draining basins that are 10 square miles in size or larger. The ratio of runoff to rainfall in the developing basin appears to have increased during the study period. Low-flow suspended-sediment concentrations in the study basins were about the same magnitude as median stormflow concentrations in Piedmont agricultural basins. Sediment concentrations were higher in the mixed land-use basins and in the developing basin. Median suspended-sediment concentrations in these basins generally were an order of magnitude greater than median concentrations in the other five basins, which had stable land use. Some of the highest total nitrogen concentrations occurred in residential basins. Total nitrogen concentrations detected in this study were about twice as high as concentrations in small Piedmont streams affected by agriculture and urbanization. Most of the total nitrogen consisted of organic nitrogen at all of the sites except in two residential land- use basins. The high ammonia content of lawn fertilizer may explain the higher ammonia concentration in stormflow from residential basins. The two basins with the highest median suspended-sediment concentrations also had the highest total phosphorus concentrations. Median total phosphorus concentrations measured in this study were several times greater than median concentrations in small Piedmont streams but almost an order of magnitude less than total phosphorus concentrations in Charlotte streams during the late 1970's. Bacteria concentrations are not correlated to streamflow. The highest bacteria levels were found in 'first-flush' samples. Higher fecal coliform concentrations were associated with residential land use. Chromium, copper, lead, and zinc occurred at all sites in concentrations that exceeded the North Carolina ambient water-quality standards. The median chromium concentration in the developing basin was more than double the median concentration at any other site. As with chromium, the maximum copper concentration in the developing basin was almost an order of magnitude greater than maximum concentrations at other sites. The highest zinc concentration also occurred in the developing basin. Samples were analyzed for 121 organic compounds and 57 volatile organic compounds. Forty-five organic compounds and seven volatile organic compounds were detected. At least five compounds were detected at all sites, and 15 or more compounds were detected at all sites except two mixed land-use basins. Atrazine, carbaryl, and metolachlor were detected at eight sites, and 90 percent of all samples had measurable amounts of atrazine. About 60 percent of the samples had detectable levels of carbaryl and metolachlor. Diazinon and malathion were measured in samples from seven sites, and methyl parathion, chlorpyrifos, alachlor, and 2,4-D were detected at four or more sites. The fewest compounds were detected in the larger, mixed land-use basins. Residential basins and the developing basin had the greatest number of detections of organic compounds. The pH of wet atmospheric deposition in three Charlotte basins was more variable than the pH measured at a National Atmospheric Deposition Program (NADP)site in Rowan County. Summer pH values were significantly lower than pH measured during the remainder of the year, probably as a result of poorer air quality and different weather patterns during the summer. Concentrations of ammonia and nitrate at the Charlotte sites generally were lower than those measured at the NADP site. Summer concentrations of ammonia and nitrate at both the Charlotte and the NADP sites were significantly greater than concentrations measured during the remainder of the year, again probably reflecting poorer summertime air-quality conditions. Sediment yields at the nine sites ranged from 77 tons per square mile per year in a residential basin to 4,700 tons per square mile per year at the developing basin. Residential areas that have been built-out for several years and industrial areas appear, in general, to have the lowest sediment yields for the Charlotte study sites. Average annual yields of total nitrogen loads ranged from about 1.7 tons per square mile to 6.6 tons per square mile. Average annual total phosphorus yields for all sites except the developing basin were less than 1.4 tons per square mile. Phosphorus yield at the developing basin was 13 .4 tons per square mile per year. Biochemical oxygen demand loading in 1993 from all of the permitted wastewater-treatment facilities in Charlotte and Mecklenburg County was about 1.5 tons per day or 548 tons per year. Converting this point-source loading to an annual yield for the 528 square-mile area of Mecklenburg County is equivalent to 1.03 tons per square mile per year, or a yield much lower than any of the yields measured at the nine study sites. In other words, biochemical oxygen demand loading from nonpoint sources in Mecklenburg County probably exceeds loading from all point sources by a large amount. Loads and average annual yields were computed for five metals-chromium, copper, lead, nickel, and zinc. The highest annual average yields for all five of these metals were in the developing basin, which also had the highest annual average suspended-sediment yield of all the sites. Estimated wet-deposition watershed loadings suggest that atmospheric deposition may be an important source of some metals, including chromium, copper, lead, and zinc, in Charlotte storm water. Storm water from residential land-use basins has higher concentrations of total nitrogen, fecal coliform bacteria, and organic compounds than do other land-use types. Reductions in suspended-sediment concentrations should generally result in reduced export of phosphorus and metals. Stable land uses, such as industrial areas and built-out residential basins, have lower sediment concentrations in stormwater than do mixed land use and developing basins. Finally, atmospheric deposition may be an important source of nitrogen and some metals in Charlotte stormwater.

North Carolina↗

Landscape and climatic influences on actual evapotranspiration and available water using the Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop) Model in eastern Bernalillo County, New Mexico, 2015

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bernalillo County Public Works Division, conducted a 1-year study in 2015 to assess the spatial and temporal distribution of evapotranspiration (ET) and available water within the East Mountain area in Bernalillo County, New Mexico. ET and available water vary spatiotemporally because of complex interactions among environmental factors, including vegetation characteristics, soil characteristics, topography, and climate. Precipitation data from the Parameter-Elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) ( P ) were used in conjunction with actual ET ( ETa ) data from the Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop) model to estimate available water ( P – ETa ) at 100-meter (m) resolution in the study area. Maps, descriptive statistics, boxplots, regression analyses (continuous data), and multiple comparison tests (categorical data) were used to characterize P , ETa , and available water and their relations to topographic, soil, and vegetation datasets in the East Mountain area. Five categories of the natural land-cover type (evergreen forest, shrub, herbaceous, deciduous forest, and mixed forest) and four categories of developed land-cover type specific to residential intensity (developed open, developed low, developed medium, and developed high) were analyzed individually and in interaction with multiple elevation, tree canopy, and soil texture classes. Annual mean P in 2015 in the East Mountain area was 608 millimeters (mm), and annual mean ETa was 543 mm (89 percent of annual P in 2015), indicating that in 2015, a spatial mean of about 65 mm of water was available for runoff, soil moisture replenishment, or groundwater recharge. Monthly ETa was greatest in July and smallest in January. The intervening months did not show smooth temporal or consistent spatial changes from month to month. Months with lower ETa (January to March, October to December) also tended to have greater available water, indicating that soil moisture (water supply) and potential ET (water demand) may have been out of phase. Regression analyses showed that monthly ETa data had the highest correlation with annual ETa among the atmospheric, topographic, soil, or vegetation datasets, particularly during the early and late growing season (March, April, May, and September). In contrast, monthly P was highly variable and not as highly correlated with annual ETa . Among landscape variables, correlations with annual ETa were highest for tree canopy cover (coefficient of determination [R 2 ] = 0.46). Correlations between ETa and other landscape variables were lower (R 2 = 0.06–0.19): available soil water in the top 100 centimeters, soil bulk density of layer 1, slope, sand content of soil layer 1, soil depth, available soil water in the top 25 centimeters, leaf area index, aspect eastness, and elevation. Evergreen forest areas had the highest annual median ETa , followed by mixed forest, open residential areas, and deciduous forest. Available water typically was higher in landcover types with lower ETa : herbaceous cover, followed by deciduous forest, high-intensity developed areas, and shrub. Deciduous forest had the second highest median available water, despite having the fourth highest ETa , because deciduous forest had greater P than most other areas. Annual median ETa typically was greatest in the second highest elevation band (2,401–2,800 m above the North American Vertical Datum of 1988 [NAVD 88]), and lower in the highest elevation band (2,801–3,254 m above NAVD 88), despite having greater P , likely because of decreased tree canopy cover or a shift from evergreen to deciduous trees at the highest elevations. Annual median ETa increased with tree canopy cover, regardless of landcover type. ETa correlation was higher with tree canopy than with leaf area index or normalized difference vegetation index. This result indicates that it is important to include the thermal band (from satellite multispectral data) in vegetation indices used to describe ETa , perhaps to account for the influence of energy limitation or water limitation on ET. Of all natural landcover types, finer soils had the most available water, whereas coarser soils had the least available water. Relations of soil type with P – ETa were different than with ETa , indicating ET and available water have a complex response to differences in soil type. Further modeling would be useful in determining soils’ infiltration, storage, conductivity, and plant-water availability relations to individual storms for each position in the landscape, as well as the corresponding effects of these processes on ET and available water. The best multivariate linear model for annual ETa had an R 2 value of 0.62. Monthly ETa models had R 2 values between 0.16 and 0.65. Models usually, but not always, performed best during the growing season. These results indicate that even the best multivariate linear models cannot explain a notable amount of the variability in ET. The monthly ETa models with the highest correlations (August and September) followed a July having almost twice the mean precipitation for July (1981–2010), which indicates that a soil-moisture variable is needed to more accurately model monthly ETa . Further study is needed to better characterize this system, the variables that affect ET and available water, and the partitioning of available water into runoff, soil moisture storage, and groundwater recharge.

New Mexico↗

Predictive simulation of alternatives for managing the water resources of North Fork Solomon River Valley between Kirwin Dam and Waconda Lake, north-central Kansas

Since 1974 water levels in the alluvial aquifer of the North Fork Solomon River Valley in north-central Kansas have decreased due to increases in ground-water pumpage, decreases in availability of surface water for irrigation, and below-average precipitation. A finite-element model was developed in cooperation with the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation to simulate changing conditions between 1970-79. Model results indicate that annual recharge to the aquifer due to precipitation, applcation of water for irrigation, and canal leakage averaged about 22,825 acre-feet and that annual ground-wate discharge to the river averaged about 16,590 acre-feet. Predictive simulations for 1980-2000 were made using management alternatives that involved clay-lining of irrigation ditches, reduction of surface-water availability with and without an increase in ground-water pumping, and continuation of 1979 pumping conditions. The simulations indicated that as much as 5.5 feet of additional average water-level drawdown in wells would occur by 2000 if surface-water supply were reduced 100 percent and ground-water pumpage increased. The simulations also indicated that a decrease in average drawdown of 0.55 foot would occur by 2000 and that base flow to the river would decrease to 12,300 acre-feet per year if 1979 conditions remained constant. (USGS)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Three-dimensional model simulation of transient ground-water flow in the Albuquerque-Belen Basin, New Mexico

A three-dimensional digital model that simulates transient flow in the alluvial aquifer system underlying the Albuquerque-Belen Basin, New Mexico, was constructed as part of a regional aquifer study of the southwest alluvial basins. The model simulates hydraulic heads and changes in hydraulic heads for 1907 to 1979. Hydraulic-conductivity values used in the accepted model range from 0.25 ft/day in part of the Santa Fe Group to 50 ft/day in the fluvial deposits in the Rio Grande flood plain. The majority of the basin-fill material of the Santa Fe group of Tertiary and Quaternary age was modeled as having a horizontal hydraulic conductivity of either 30 or 40 ft/day. The simulated specific storage of the aquifer was 0.000001/ft and the simulated specific yield was 0.10. The aquifer was simulated as being vertically anisotropic with a ratio of vertical to horizontal hydraulic conductivity of 1:500. Simulations for 1976-79 indicated that of the 100,000 acre-ft of groundwater withdrawn annually from the basin-fill deposits outside of the Rio Grande flood plain, 68% was obtained from recharge around the basin margin, depletion of streams that are tributary to the Rio Grande, and the stream-aquifer system in the Rio Grande flood plain. Depletion of aquifer storage accounted for 25% of the groundwater supply to wells outside of the flood plain, and the remaining 7% was obtained by induced groundwater inflow from the Santo Domingo Basin. The model displayed an acceptable performance throughout the period of simulation. However, by the end of the simulation period, 1979, the portrayal of the Rio Grande flood-plain system as a specified hydraulic-head boundary was having adverse effects on the simulation. (Author 's abstract)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Streamflow at selected gaging stations on the James River in North Dakota and South Dakota, 1953-82, with a section on climatology

Historic stream flow data were compiled and record extension techniques were used, when necessary, to develop a monthly stream flow record for 1953-82 at streamflow-gaging stations on the James River in North Dakota and South Dakota. The record extension techniques included both Maintenance of Variance Extension Type 1 and Ordinary Least Squares. In addition to the historic stream flow record, synthesized unregulated streamflow was computed for gaging stations on the James River for 1953-82 by eliminating the effects of Jamestown Reservoir, Pipestem Reservoir, Sand Lake National Wildlife Refuge, and the consumptive surface-water withdrawals. Maintenance of Variance Extension Type 1, Ordinary Least Squares regression, water-balance procedures, and drainage-area ratio methods were used to compute the unregulated streamflows. Mean annual historic stream flow of the James River at Jamestown is about 7,000 acre-feet less than the mean annual unregulated streamflow. Mean monthly unregulated streamflow is greater than mean monthly historic streamflow during March, April, and May; during all other months, unregulated stream flow is less than historic streamflow. The climate during 1953-82 was compared to the climate records, which range in length from 53 to 102 years, in the James River basin to determine if the climate during 1953-82 was similar to the climate that has occurred during the last 90 years. On the basis of the climate analysis, the data-development period (1953-82) does not represent an abnormally wet or dry period. Thus, the streamflow during the data-development period represents a range of streamflows that might be expected to occur during the last 90 years.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

U.S. Geological Survey Activities Related to American Indians and Alaska Natives Fiscal Year 2001

Information is a resource that can help Native American governments and their people. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) makes available technical expertise, reports, and other impartial information sources that can benefit Native Americans interested in subsistence issues, water, land use, and the health of many parts of the environment. The USGS works in cooperation with American Indian and Alaska Native governments, conducting research on water and mineral resources, animals and plants of environmental, economic, or subsistence importance, natural hazards, and geologic resources. Digital data on cartography, mineral resources, stream flow, biota, and other topics are available to American Indian and Alaska Native individuals and institutions. The USGS recognizes the need to learn from and share knowledge with Native peoples. This report describes most of the activities that the USGS conducted with American Indian and Alaska Native governments, educational institutions, and individuals during Federal fiscal year 2001. Some of these USGS activities were carried out in concert with the Bureau of Indian Affairs (BIA). Others were conducted by Tribes and the USGS. In 2001, the USGS began examining its activities related to American Indians and Alaska Natives to determine how it can better serve these customers within its mandates. A growing number of Tribal governments, educational institutions, and other Tribal organizations have begun using geographic information systems and other digital technologies in recent years. As Tribes become more interested in and more adept at managing digital information, they are seeking relevant data from the USGS more frequently. Using digital technologies provides Tribal governments with additional means of managing lands and resources for the benefit of current and future generations. The USGS recognizes the need to make its information available to Tribal governments, and to work with those governments and other institutions to advance data management capabilities. The USGS is responding to this need by increasing the transfer of scientific information to American Indian and Alaska Native governments and by training employees of those governments to conduct and improve scientific studies. The USGS is also encouraging American Indians and Alaska Natives to pursue careers in science, and seeking ways to hire Indian and Native students. By identifying, improving, and disseminating information about available hiring mechanisms, the USGS is working to make hiring such students easier, and therefore more likely, for USGS managers. The U.S. Geological Survey is the Federal science bureau within the Department of the Interior (DoI). The USGS is non-regulatory and is not a significant manager of Federal or Trust lands or assets. However, there are two types of USGS activities that do involve American Indians, Alaska Natives, and their lands. The first type of activity is the course of formal studies, conducted through existing USGS programs, that involves collection of specific types of data as well as investigative and research projects. These projects typically last 2 or 3 years, although a few are parts of longer-term activities. Some projects are funded through cooperative agreements, from monies provided to the USGS by individual Tribal governments or by the BIA. The USGS provides matching funds for cooperative projects. These formal projects may also receive funding from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the Indian Health Service (part of the Department of Health and Human Services), or other Federal agencies. The USGS routinely works with its sister bureaus in the Department of the Interior to provide the scientific information and expertise needed to meet the Department's science priorities. Within this context, the USGS and the BIA are cooperating to use USGS information resources to benefit American Indian and Alaska Native peoples and their lands. The second type of USGS activity is less formal, based on initiatives designed and conducted by USGS employees. Frequently involving educational activities, these endeavors are prompted by employee interests, often as collateral issues, that result from one or more USGS employees identifying and responding to an observed need. In these activities, USGS employees help fulfill a mission of the USGS-to make science relevant-while helping their fellow citizens. USGS employees have also taken the initiative in assisting American Indians and Alaska Natives through participation in several organizations that were created to foster awareness of science among Native peoples and to help build support and communication networks. One such group is the American Indian Science and Engineering Society (AISES). This group sponsors an annual national meeting in which USGS employees participate. USGS employees join this organization on a voluntary basis, bringing the benefits of this expanded network to the USGS, as many employees do with other professional organizations. Each part of the USGS has identified an American Indian/Alaska Native liaison. Furthermore, the USGS has instituted a regional organizational structure, with Western, Central, and Eastern Regions. The regions work in concert with specific scientific disciplines to conduct the scientific mission of the USGS. The regional structure is intended to bring us closer to our customers; we hope that Native Americans and Alaska Natives will use the contacts listed at the end of this report.

Report↗

Ground-water conditions in Utah, spring of 1998

This is the thirty-fifth in a series of annual reports that describe ground-water conditions in Utah. Reports in this series, published cooperatively by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Utah Department of Natural Resources, Division of Water Resources, provide data to enable interested parties to maintain awareness of changing ground-water conditions. This report, like the others in the series, contains information on well construction, ground-water withdrawal from wells, water-level changes, precipitation, streamflow, and chemical quality of water. Information on well construction included in this report refers only to wells constructed for new appropriations of ground water. Supplementary data are included in reports of this series only for those years or areas which are important to a discussion of changing ground-water conditions and for which applicable data are available. This report includes individual discussions of selected significant areas of ground-water development in the State for calendar year 1997. Most of the reported data were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Utah Department of Natural Resources, Divisions of Water Rights and Water Resources.

Utah↗

Water-Resources Investigations in Wisconsin, 2000

The statewide average precipitation of 36.00 inches for the 1999 water year was 4.35 inches greater than the normal annual precipitation of 31.65 inches for water years 1961-90. Average precipitation values ranged from 83 percent of normal at both the Rosholt 9 NNE weather station in north central Wisconsin and Shawano 2 SSW WWTP weather station in northeast Wisconsin to 155 percent of normal at the Solon Springs weather station in northwestern Wisconsin (from tables provided by JoAnne Kruepke, UW-Extension, Wisconsin Geological and Natural History Survey, written commun., 2000). Runoff differed for rivers throughout the State and ranged from 46 percent in east central Wisconsin to 157 percent in south central Wisconsin. Runoff was lowest (46 percent of the average annual runoff from 1989-99) for the Duck Creek near Oneida station and highest (157 percent of the average annual runoff from 1949-69, 1988-99) for the South Branch Rock River at Waupun station in south central Wisconsin. Departures of runoff in the 1999 water year as a percent of long-term average runoff in the State (determined using stations with drainage areas greater than 150 square miles and at least 20 years of record) are shown in Figure 4.

Wisconsin↗

Effects of land disposal of municipal sewage sludge on fate of nitrates in soil, streambed sediment, and water quality

This study was undertaken to determine the effects of sewage-sludge disposal at the Lowry sewage-sludge-disposal area, near Denver, Colorado, on ground- and surface-water quality, to determine the fate of nitrates from sludge leachate, and to determine the source areas of leachate and the potential for additional leaching from the disposal area. Sewage-sludge disposal began in 1969. Two methods were used to apply the sludge: burial and plowing. Also, the sludge was applied both in liquid and cake forms. Data in this report represent the chemical composition of soil and streambed sediment from seven soil- and four streambed-sampling sites in 1986, chemical and bacterial composition of ground water from 28 wells from 1981 to 1987, and surface-water runoff from seven water-sampling sites from 1984 to 1987. Ground water samples were obtained from alluvial and bedrock aquifers. Samples of soil, streambed sediment, ground water and surface water were obtained for onsite measurement and chemical analysis. Measurements included determination of nitrogen compounds and major cations and anions, fecal-coliform and -streptococcus bacteria, specific conductance, and pH. Thirteen wells in the alluvial aquifer in Region 3 of the study area contain water that was probably affected by sewage-sludge leachate. The plots of concentration of nitrate with time show seasonal trends and trends caused by precipitation. In addition to yearly fluctuation, there were noticeable increases in ground-water concentrations of nitrate that coincided with increased precipitation. After 3 years of annual ground-water-quality monitoring and 4 years of a quarterly sampling program, it has been determined that leachate from the sewage-sludge-disposal area caused increased nitrite plus nitrate (as nitrogen) concentration in the alluvial ground water at the site. Soil analyses from the disposal area indicate that organic nitrogen was the dominant form of nitrogen in the soil. As a result of investigations at the research site, it has been determined that a potentially large source of contamination exists in the soils of the study area owing to increased concentrations of nitrogen, sodium, calcium, magnesium, sulfate, bicarbonate, and chloride because of sewage disposal. Continued monitoring of surface and ground water for nitrogen and the other ions previously mentioned is required to assess long-term effects of municipal sludge disposal on water quality.

Journal of Hydrology↗

Estimating traffic volume and road age in Wyoming to inform resource management planning: An application with wildlife-vehicle collisions

Road networks and their associated vehicular traffic disturb many terrestrial systems, but inventories of roads used to assess these effects often focus on the ‘where’ (e.g., local road type and density) and neglect the ‘when’ (e.g., temporal disturbance) or ‘how much’ (e.g., traffic volume disturbance). We developed annual estimates of the ‘when’ (road age) and ‘how much’ (vehicular traffic volume) across 148,172 km of highways, arterials, collectors, local, and gravel/graded roads within the state of Wyoming for the years 1986 to 2020 to provide a comprehensive dataset for future ecological investigations. We leveraged a suite of ancillary data on surface disturbances (e.g., oil & gas drilling operations, wind turbines, and open pit mines) with known establishment dates and combined them using graph theory and centrality metrics to estimate the age of each road. We then predicted traffic volume obtained from the Wyoming Department of Transportation for each year across Wyoming using a machine learning method, XGBoost, and a separate set of spatial covariates hypothesized to explain traffic patterns across large regions. We found that 132,476 km of these roads likely existed before 1986, but that 16,693 km (10.7 %) of roads have been built since 1986. Overall, our estimates of road age were 89 % accurate when assessed on a subset of 1,330 roads with high-resolution aerial imagery. Mean absolute error for predicting traffic volume ranged from 35.2 to 77.9 annual average daily traffic (aadt) for trucks and 269.2 to 516.7 aadt for all-vehicles across the 35 years. We found that mean traffic volume across the state increased by 23 % for both truck-only traffic and all vehicular traffic from 1986 to 2020. However, changes in traffic volume have varied substantially across the state (e.g., 100 % increases in volume in some areas, while other areas experienced declines of up to 1,786 %). We also illustrate a novel application of these data by predicting rates of reported wildlife-vehicle collisions (WVCs) along a subset of roads. We found evidence of a non-linear relationship that supported a threshold hypothesis for WVCs, wherein increases in traffic volume equate to increases in WVCs up to a threshold, above which increases in traffic volume result in declines in WVCs. The data provided here will enable better-informed studies of road ecology to address how roads may affect wildlife populations and key ecosystems across Wyoming.

Wyoming↗