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U.S. Geological Survey climate and land use change science strategy—A framework for understanding and responding to global change

Executive Summary The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), a nonregulatory Federal science agency with national scope and responsibilities, is uniquely positioned to serve the Nation’s needs in understanding and responding to global change, including changes in climate, water availability, sea level, land use and land cover, ecosystems, and global biogeochemical cycles. Global change is among the most challenging and formidable issues confronting our Nation and society. Scientists agree that global environmental changes during this century will have far-reaching societal implications (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007; U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2009). In the face of these challenges, the Nation can benefit greatly by using natural science information in decisionmaking. Since the passage of the U.S. Global Change Research Act of 1990, the USGS has made substantial scientific contributions to understanding the interactive living and nonliving components of the Earth system. USGS natural science activities have led to fundamental advances in observing and understanding climate and land-cover change and the effects these changes have on ecosystems, natural-resource availability, and societal sustainability. Most of these major advances were pursued in partnership with other organizations within and outside the Department of the Interior. The inherent value of partnerships with other U.S. Global Change Research Program agencies and natural-resource managers is emphasized in all aspects of the planning and implementation of this Science Strategy for the coming decade. Over the next 10 years, the USGS will make substantial contributions to understanding how Earth systems interact, respond to, and cause global change. The USGS will work with science partners, decisionmakers, and resource managers at local to international levels (including Native American tribes) to improve understanding of past and present change; develop relevant forecasts; and identify those lands, resources, and communities most vulnerable to global change processes. Science will play an essential role in helping communities and land and resource managers understand local to global implications, anticipate effects, prepare for changes, and reduce the risks associated with decisionmaking in a changing environment. USGS partners and stakeholders will benefit from the data, predictive models, and decision-support products and services resulting from the implementation of this strategy. This Science Strategy recognizes core USGS strengths that are applied to key societal problems. It establishes seven goals for USGS global change science and strategic actions that may be implemented in the short term (1–5 years) and the longer term (5–10 years) to improve our understanding of the following areas of inquiry: Rates, causes, and impacts of past global changes; The global carbon cycle; Biogeochemical cycles and their coupled interactions; Land-use and land-cover change rates, causes, and consequences; Droughts, floods, and water availability under changing land-use and climatic conditions; Coastal response to sea-level rise, climatic change, and human development; and Biological responses to global change. In addition to the seven thematic goals, we address the central role of monitoring in accordance with the USGS Science Strategy recommendation that global change research should rely on existing “…decades of observational data and long-term records to interpret consequences of climate variability and change to the Nation’s biological populations, ecosystems, and land and water resources” (U.S. Geological Survey, 2007, p. 19). We also briefly describe specific needs and opportunities for coordinating USGS global change science among USGS Mission Areas and address the need for a comprehensive and sustained communications strategy.

Circular↗

Investigations needed to stimulate the development of Jordan's mineral resources

The level of living that any society can attain is a direct function of the use it makes of all kinds of raw materials (soil, water, metals, nonmetals, etc.), all kinds of energy (both animate and inanimate), and all kinds of human ingenuity; and is an inverse function of the size of the population that must share the collective product. The relation between raw materials, energy and ingenuity is such that use of a large amount of one may offset the need for large amounts of others. The most vital raw materials are water, soil, and construction materials, for these are needed in large quantities and are hard to import. Metals, chemicals, and inanimate energy are necessary for industrialization. The more of these minerals a nation possess, the better, but not nation can hope to be self-sufficient in all of the m and therefore must trade for some essential materials. Jordan’s natural resources have been little explored. The grantitc-metamorphic terrane in the southeastern part of the Kingdom could contain deposits of tungsten, rare earths, feldspar, mica, fluorite etc. and the sedimentary terrane over much of the rest of the county is favorable for the occurrence of oil. Even if none of these minerals is found, however, Jordan’s other mineral resource, if fully explored and developed in the light of modern technology, will support a far higher level of living than her people now enjoy. Very likely she can increase her rainfall by about 10 percent by cloud seeding, and she undeveloped supplies in both surface and ground water that are sufficient to nearly double her usable water supply. Even if she does not have oil or have it in large quantities, she can buy it cheaply from neighboring counties, and in addition has undeveloped sources of hydroelectric power, large reserves of bituminous limestone, large reserves of nuclear power as uranium in phosphate rock, and can use solar and wind power for special purposes. Her large supplies of construction, fertilizer, and other chemical raw materials will not only satisfy her own needs, but will yield both raw materials and some manufactured products for export. And she has valuable resource of touristic interest in the form of incomparable scenery, antiquities, and holy places, which, if properly advertised, could well become her largest single source of foreign currency. Revenues obtained from this source and from the export of agricultural products, nonmetallic minerals, and mineral products should support foreign oil purchase of oil, machinery, and other products not mined or produced internally. Full development of Jordan’s economic potential will take years to achieve and involves many complex activities. One of the most essential is one that can be pressed in the early years, namely the gathering of facts and basic data concerning the character, extent, and distribution of her resources, and the uses that can be made of them. Without each fundamental data or the understanding of their meaning or the ways to use and apply them, costly developmental projects and similar efforts to raise the level of living are likely to have limited success at best. Basic data and mineral resources are best gathered and published by permanent government agencies, for private organizations and individual cannot afford to take the risks involved in gathering data that may not have an immediate economic return; and even if private parties do collect such data they are not likely to make them general available. Of the activities needed in the field of mineral resources, some are already underway as the established function of government agencies. No bureau however, seems to have responsibility for making geologic maps and for gathering data on such things as steam flow, composition and properties of minerals and rocks, or for investigating the uses to which Jordan’s minerals might be put. To satisfy these needs, a Geological Survey and a Bureau of Mineral Industries should be formed and placed in operation as quickly as possible. The task of collecting and interpreting basic data or mineral resources must be done largely by Jordanians, for only in this way will Jordan acquire the technical competence needed to use the information. Few Jordanians have enough training or experience to work independently in these fields now, however, so help from outside technicians would be necessary over an initial training period of several years. But the number of outside technicians should never exceed the number of Jordanian technicians, and for this reason, neither organization could have a staff of more than a few people during the early years of operation.

Open-File Report↗

Relation between selected water-quality variables and lake level in Upper Klamath and Agency Lakes, Oregon

Upper Klamath Lake is a large (140 square-mile), shallow (mean depth about 8 ft) lake in south-central Oregon that the historical record indicates has been eutrophic since its discovery by non-Native Americans. In recent decades, however, the lake has had annual occurrences of near- monoculture blooms of the blue-green alga Aphanizomenon flos-aquae. In 1988 two sucker species endemic to the lake, the Lost River sucker (Deltistes luxatus) and the shortnose sucker (Chasmistes brevirostris), were listed as endangered by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and it has been proposed that the poor water quality conditions associated with extremely long and productive blooms are contributing to the decline of those species. It has also been proposed that the low lake levels made possible by the construction of a dam at the outlet from the lake in 1921 have contributed to worsening water quality through a variety of possible mechanisms (Jacob Kann, Klamath Tribes, written commun., 1995). One such mechanism would be an increase in internal phosphorus loading from resuspended sediments (Jacoby and others, 1982), resulting from an increase in bottom shear stresses at lower lake levels (Laenen and LeTourneau, 1996), leading in turn to more intense algal blooms. Another possible mechanism is an earlier triggering of algal blooms. When early spring lake levels are low, greater light intensity at the sediment surface might speed recruitment of algal cells from the sediments. Sediment recruitment has been shown to be an important contributor to water column biomass increases in A. flos aquae (Barbiero and Kann, 1994) and Gloeotrichia echinulata (Barbiero, 1993). An earlier bloom could result in poor water quality conditions occurring earlier in the year, when young-of-the-year fish may be more susceptible to those conditions. Lake level can also influence water quality directly. An increased frequency of sediment resuspension at lower lake levels could increase chemical and biological oxygen demand, resulting in decreased dissolved oxygen concentrations. Sediment oxygen demand also may be enhanced at lower lake levels because it is concentrated over a smaller volume of water. Some compensation for increased oxygen demand at lower lake levels might be provided by increased reaeration, if the water column mixes from top to bottom more frequently. Based on the analysis of data that they have been collecting for several years, the Klamath Tribes recently recommended that the Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) modify the operating plan for the dam to make the minimum lake levels for the June-August period more closely resemble pre-dam conditions (Jacob Kann, written commun., 1995). The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) was asked to analyze the available data for the lake and to assess whether the evidence exists to conclude that year-to-year differences in certain lake water-quality variables are related to year-to-year differences in lake level. The results of the analysis will be used as scientific input in the process of developing an operating plan for the Link River Dam.

Oregon↗

Appendix C: Summary of Major Metallogenic Belts in Northeast Asia (the Russian Far East, Yakutia, Siberia, Transbaikalia, Northern China, Mongolia, South Korea, and Japan)

The major purposes of this chapter are to provide (1) an overview of the regional geology, tectonics, and metallogenesis of Northeast Asia for readers who are unfamiliar with the region, (2) a general scientific introduction to the succeeding chapters of this volume, and (3) an overview of the methodology of metallogenic and tectonic analysis used in this study. We also describe how a high-quality metallogenic and tectonic analysis, including construction of an associated metallogenic-tectonic model will greatly benefit other mineral resource studies, including synthesis of mineral-deposit models; improve prediction of undiscovered mineral deposit as part of a quantitative mineral-resource-assessment studies; assist land-use and mineral-exploration planning; improve interpretations of the origins of host rocks, mineral deposits, and metallogenic belts, and suggest new research. Research on the metallogenesis and tectonics of such major regions as Northeast Asia (eastern Russia, Mongolia, northern China, South Korea, and Japan) and the Circum-North Pacific (the Russian Far East, Alaska, and the Canadian Cordillera) requires a complex methodology including (1) definitions of key terms, (2) compilation of a regional geologic base map that can be interpreted according to modern tectonic concepts and definitions, (3) compilation of a mineral-deposit database that enables a determination of mineral-deposit models and clarification of the relations of deposits to host rocks and tectonic origins, (4) synthesis of a series of mineral-deposit models that characterize the known mineral deposits and inferred undiscovered deposits in the region, (5) compilation of a series of metallogenic-belt belts constructed on the regional geologic base map, and (6) construction of a unified metallogenic and tectonic model. The summary of regional geology and metallogenesis presented here is based on publications of the major international collaborative studies of the metallogenesis and tectonics of Northeast Asia that have been led by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). These studies have produced two broad types of publications (1) a series of regional geologic, mineral-deposit, and metallogenic-belt maps, with companion descriptions of the region, and (2) a suite of metallogenic and tectonic analyses of the same region. The study area consists of eastern Russia (most of eastern Siberia and the Russian Far East), Mongolia, northern China, South Korea, Japan, and adjacent offshore areas. The major cooperative agencies are the Russian Academy of Sciences; the Academy of Sciences of the Sakha Republic (Yakutia); VNIIOkeangeologia and Ministry of Natural Resources of the Russian Federation; the Mongolian Academy of Sciences; the Mongolian University of Science and Technology; the Mongolian National University; Jilin University, Changchun, People?s Republic of China, the China Geological Survey; the Korea Institute of Geosciences and Mineral Resources; the Geological Survey of Japan/AIST; the University of Texas, Arlington, and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). This study builds on and extends the data and interpretations from a previous project on the Major Mineral Deposits, Metallogenesis, and Tectonics of the Russian Far East, Alaska, and the Canadian Cordillera conducted by the USGS, the Russian Academy of Sciences, the Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys, and the Geological Survey of Canada. The major products of this project were summarized by Naumova and others (2006) and are described in appendix A.

Professional Paper↗

Geohydrology and water chemistry in the Rialto-Colton Basin, San Bernardino County, California

The 40-square-mile Rialto-Colton ground- water basin is in western San Bernardino County, California, about 60 miles east of Los Angeles.This basin was chosen for storage of imported water because of the good quality of native ground water, the known capacity for additional ground-water storage in the basin, and the availability of imported water. Because the movement and mixing of imported water needed to be determined, the San Bernardino Valley Municipal Water District entered into a cooperative program with the U.S.Geological Survey in 1991 to study the geohydrology and water chemistry in the Rialto- Colton basin. Ground-water flow and chemistry were investigated using existing data, borehole- geophysical and lithologic logs from newly drilled test holes, measurement of water levels, and chemical analyses of water samples. The Rialto-Colton basin is bounded on the northwest and southeast by the San Gabriel Mountains and the Badlands, respectively. The San Jacinto Fault and Barrier E form the northeastern boundary, and the Rialto-Colton Fault forms the southwestern boundary. Except in the southeastern part of the basin, the San Jacinto and Rialto-Colton Faults act as groundwater barriers that impede ground- water flow into and out of the basin.Barrier E generally does not impede ground- water flow into the basin. The ground-water system consists primarily of gravel, sand, silt, and clay. The maximum thickness is greater than 1,000 feet. The ground- water system is divided into four water-bearing units: river-channel deposits, and upper, middle, and lower water-bearing units. Relatively impermeable consolidated deposits underlie the lower water- bearing unit and form the lower boundary of the ground- water system. Ground water moves from east to west in the river-channel deposits and upper water-bearing unit in the southeastern part of the basin, and from northwest to southeast in the middle and lower water-bearing units. Two major internal faults, Barrier J and an unnamed fault, affect ground-water movement. Ground water moves across Barrier J in the unfaulted part of the ground-water system. The unnamed fault is a partial barrier to ground-water movement in the middle water- bearing unit and an effective barrier in the lower water-bearing unit.Imported water flows laterally across the unnamed fault above the saturated zone. Major sources of recharge to the ground- water system are underflow; precipitation that collects in small streams that drain the San Gabriel Mountains and the Badlands or runs off the mountain front as sheet flow, and sub-surface inflow; imported water; seepage loss from the Santa Ana River and Warm Creek; infiltration of rainfall; and irrigation return flow. The main component of discharge is pumpage. Long-term water levels in production wells reflect precipitation cycles. During a 194777 dry period, water levels in three wells declined almost continuously?as much as 100 feet in one well.Water levels in a well north of Barrier J are not affected by stresses on the groundwater system south of the barrier, indicating that these two parts of the ground-water system are not well connected. Water levels in cluster wells east of the unnamed fault north and south of the Linden Ponds artificial-recharge site rose as much as 70 feet during 1992-95. The rise in water levels in wells near the recharge ponds was observed within 2 months after the beginning of recharge. Water levels in most wells west of the unnamed fault changed very little during 1992-95. Water-chemistry data indicate that chemical characteristics vary within the groundwater system, and that dissolvedsolids concentrations are generally higher in the river-channel deposits, upper water- bearing unit, and the consolidated deposits than in the middle and lower water-bearing units. The chemical characteristics in water from the middle water-bearing unit were similar for most wells sampled west of the unnamed fault. In water from well

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Maintaining and restoring sustainable ecosystems in southern Nevada

Managers in southern Nevada are challenge with determining appropriate goals and objectives and developing viable approaches for maintaining and restoring sustainable ecosystems in a time of rapid socio-ecological and environmental change. Sustainable or "healthy" ecosystems supply clean air, water and habitat for a diverse array of plants and animals. As described in Chapter 1, sustainable ecosystems retain characteristic processes like hydrological flux and storage, geomorphic processes, biogeochemical cycling and storage, biological activity and productivity, and population regeneration and reproduction over the normal cycle of disturbance events (modified from Chapin and others 1996 and Christensen and others 1996). Ecological restoration of stressed or disturbed ecosystems in an integral part of managing for sustainable ecosystems. The Society of Ecological Restoration International (SERI) defines ecological restoration as the process of assisting the recovery of an ecosystem that has been degraded, damaged, or destroyed (SERI 2004). Many of the southern Nevada's ecosystems are being subjected to anthropogenic stressors that span global, regional, and local scales (Chapter 2)., and are crossing ecological thresholds to new alternative states (Chapter 4 and Chapter 5). These alternative states often represent novel communities with disturbance regimes that differ significantly from historic conditions. Past management and restoration goals often focused on returning ecosystems to pre-disturbance conditions (Harris and others 2006). This approach assumes stable or equilibrium conditions and ignores changes in ecosystems processes due to land uses, increases in CO 2 concentrations, and climate change. A more realistic approach is to base management and restoration goals on the current potential of an ecosystem to support a given set of ecological conditions, and on the likelihood of future change due to warming climate (Harris and others 2006). This approach requires understanding ecosystem resilience to anthropogenic disturbance and climate change, the alternative states that exist for ecosystems, and the factors that result in threshold crossing (Bestelmeyer and others 2009; Hobbs and Harris 2001; Stingham and others 2003; Whisemnant 1999). It also requires the ability to predict how climate is likely to influence ecosystems in the future (Harris and others 2006). This chapter addresses the restoration aspects of Sub-goal 1.3 in the SNAP Science Research Strategy which is to restore and sustain proper function of southern Nevada's watersheds and landscapes (able 1.3; Turner and others 2009). The effects of global, regional and local stresses on southern Nevada ecosystems are presented in Chapter 2. Here, we discuss appropriate objectives and develop guidelines for maintaining and restoring southern Nevada ecosystems. We then discuss the differences in ecological resilience to stress and disturbance and resistance to invasive species in southern Nevada ecosystems and describe restoration and management approaches for the different ecosystem types. We conclude with knowledge gaps and management implications.

Nevada↗

Migration trends for king and common eiders and yellow-billed loons past Point Barrow in a rapidly changing environment

Most of the king ( Somateria spectabilis ) and common eiders ( S. mollissima v-nigra ) nesting in northern Alaska and northwestern Canada migrate past Point Barrow, Alaska, during the spring and fall migration. Yellow-billed loons ( Gavia adamsii ) also migrate past Point Barrow and are a species of international conservation concern. Spring migration counts of eiders have been conducted approximately every ten years at Point Barrow since 1976, and indicated that both eider species experienced population declines of approximately 50% between 1976 and 1996, and that the declines had stabilized by 2004. Population estimates derived from migration counts have not been previously estimated for yellow-billed loons. We conducted spring counts of eiders and loons in 2015 and 2016 to obtain population estimates to compare with those from 1994, 1995, 2003, and 2004 in order to evaluate long-term and current trends. We estimated (95% confidence intervals) that 796,419 (304,011) king and 96,775 (39,913) common eiders passed Point Barrow in 2015, and 322,381 (145,833) king and 130,390 (34,548) common eiders passed Point Barrow in 2016. Both and king and common eider population estimates increased from 1994 through 2016, however, the increase over time was not significant (F < 5.07, P > 0.087, df = 1). Our population estimates for king eiders were very different between the two years of this study, possibly due to a very short and intense migration peak in 2016, resulting in a population count that was biased low because sampling periods did not adequately capture the peak of migration. The numbers of common eiders were similar between the two years, as well as for the 12 years since the previous count. Photo analysis of flocks indicated that observer counts were on average 4% lower than photo counts (paired t-test; |t| = 3.26, df = 297, P < 0.001) for flocks less than 1400 individuals (observer count). Estimates of yellow-billed loon populations were very variable and are biased low as numbers of loons passing Pt. Barrow were still high when our counts ended in late May. It is important that counts continue to be conducted for these species of conservation and subsistence importance, but that techniques be refined to reduce bias and variability, and to find solutions to the increasing difficulty of conducting a count from the shore-fast ice in spring.

Alaska↗

Ecotoxicology of Wild Mammals

An international group of 32 scientists has critically reviewed the scientific literature on exposure and effects of environmental contaminants in wild mammals. The underlying theme of this text is encompassed by the following four questions: What exactly do we know about environmental contaminants in mammals? What are the commonalities and differences between mammal orders/species in the effects that contaminants have? How and to what degree of accuracy can we predict the adverse effects of environmental contaminants on mammalian wildlife? How significant are contaminant insults compared with other density-independent and -dependent factors such as habitat loss, climatic factors and disease? The book is organized three topical sections including introductory chapters that provide a background on environmental contaminants and the mammalian orders, eight taxonomic chapters discussing all aspects of the exposure to and effects of contaminants in mammalian orders, and four thematic chapters that review and discuss generic issues including biomarkers, prediction and extrapolation of exposure and effects, hazard and risk assessment, and the relative significance of contaminants on mammals compared with other commonly encountered stressors. A final a summary chapter identifies phylogenetic trends, critical data gaps, and overarching research needs. Although the absolute number of toxicological studies in domesticated and wild mammals eclipses that wildlife species, a detailed examination of our knowledge base reveals that information for 'wild' birds is actually greater than that for 'wild' mammals. Of the various mammalian taxa, ecotoxicological data is most noticeably lacking for marsupials and monotremes. In contrast, rodents (comprising 43% of all mammal species) have been studied extensively, despite evidence of their tolerance to some organochlorine compounds, rodenticides, and even radionuclides. Mammalian species at greatest risk of exposure include those that consume a high percentage of their body weight on a daily basis. Aquatic mammals tend to bioaccumulate tremendous burdens of lipophilic contaminants, although storage in their fat depots may actually limit toxicity. Carnivores appear to be more sensitive to adverse effects of environmental contaminants than herbivores. Remarkably few of the thousands of compounds manufactured worldwide have been toxicologically evaluated in wild mammals, and concentrations of even fewer have been monitored in tissues.

Ecological & Environmental Toxicology Series.↗

Mid-range sidescan-sonar images covering parts of proposed tracts for OCS lease sale 56 and contiguous areas, Manteo, Cape Fear, and adjacent quadrangles off North Carolina

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U.S. Bureau of Land Management (BLM) and the Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory (LDGO), collected 335 km of mid-range sidescan-sonar data in some of the tracts proposed for inclusion in Federal OCS (Outer Continental Shelf) Oil and Gas Lease Sale 56 and in some contiguous areas (R.V. GYRE, September 18-25, 1980 [GYRE 80-9, leg 1]). The data were collected by use of the Sea Mark I mid-range sidescan-sonar system designed by International Submarine Technology, Ltd. (IST). This system surveys a swath having a width of approximately 2-1/2 km on each side of the deep-towed fish. Transducers were towed about 300 m above the bottom on a neutrally bouyant vehicle at a speed of 1-1/2 to 2 knots. Transducers were pulsed at 4-second intervals at a frequency of 27 kHz on one side and 30 kHz on the other. Data recorded on seven EPC recorders aboard ship included slant-range corrected port channel, starboard channel, and port and starboard channels; uncorrected port channel, starboard channel, and port and starboard channels, and a 3.5-kHz tuned-transducer record of the bottom. Fish height or the altitude above the bottom was recorded on a strip-chart recorder. Distance of the fish from the ship (slant range) was recorded by use of a sled-mounted 4.5-kHz transducer. Data recorded on sonograms lagged the 3.5-kHz tuned-transducer record and ship navigational fix by as much as 1 hour (2 km) owing to tow-cable length (up to 5 km). Navigation of the ship was by Loran-C at a 5-minute fix interval, supplemented by satellite fixes. Data are of excellent quality and bottom features several meters high and about 6-12 m wide can be identified. Figures 1 and 2 show the location of track lines in the Manteo (NI 18-2) quadrangle just east of Cape Hatteras where the upper slope within proposed lease tract areas was surveyed. Figures 3 and 4 show track lines in the Cape Fear (NI 18-7) and contiguous quadrangles where data were recorded over the outer Blake Plateau, the Continental Slope, and the upper Continental Rise. The original records may be examined at the U.S. Survey, Woods Hole, MA 02543. Microfilm copies of the data are available for purchase only from the National Geophysical and Solar-Terrestrial Data c,nt er, NOAA/EDIS/NGSDC, Code D621, 325 Broadway, Boulder, CO 80303 (303-497-6338).

North Carolina↗

Geologic field-trip guide of volcaniclastic sediments from snow- and ice-capped volcanoes—Mount St. Helens, Washington, and Mount Hood, Oregon

This field guide for the International Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth’s Interior (IAVCEI) Scientific Assembly 2017 focuses on volcaniclastic sediments from Mount St. Helens in Washington and Mount Hood in Oregon. The trip spends four days in the field and includes nine stops at each volcano. For completeness, this guidebook also includes sixteen optional stops in the Mount St. Helens area and three in the Mount Hood area. These two volcanoes provide excellent depositional records of the broad spectrum of volcanic hazards that involve the flow or fall of volcaniclastic particles. At the field-trip stops we will contrast and compare the different types of deposits—sediments that can be frustratingly difficult to distinguish from one another. Correct identification of deposit origin leads to a better understanding of hazards that can impact vulnerable communities at particular volcanoes. During this four-day field trip, we will spend two days in the Mount St. Helens area and two days near Mount Hood. On the first day, we will visit debris-avalanche and lahar deposits in the Toutle River valley in Washington. The second day will focus on pyroclastic density current, pyroclastic-fall, lahar, and volcano-fluvial deposits in the Lewis River drainage system near Mount St. Helens. On the third day, we will visit hyaloclastites, glacial tills, and other diamicts in the Hood River and Sandy River basins near Mount Hood. The fourth and final day will focus on distal lahar and volcano-fluvial deposits downstream of Mount Hood. What follows is an in-depth introduction to the deposits studied on this field trip. We provide criteria that are observable in the field to aid in differentiating between pyroclastic density current, pyroclastic-fall, debris-avalanche, lahar, water-flood, and glacial deposits. We also introduce the Holocene eruptive histories of Mount St. Helens and Mount Hood and discuss the processes responsible for deposit emplacement. Field-trip stops and features of interest along the route are described in detail in a road log that provides daily cumulative mileage.

Oregon, Washington↗

Late Proterozoic island-arc complexes and tectonic belts in the southern part of the Arabian Shield, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

Two main subdivisions of layered rocks are recognized in the southern Arabian Shield south of lat 22? N. These are an older ensimatic-arc complex, which formed 1100-800 m.y. ago, and a younger marginal-arc complex, which formed 800-690 m.y. ago. The older ensimatic-arc complex, located in the southwestern part of the Shield, includes graywacke and mafic to intermediate volcanic rocks of the essentially contemporaneous Baish, Bahah, and Jiddah groups. Although the younger arc complex is also dominantly ensimatic in character, it is also partly superimposed over the older ensimaticarc complex. The superimposed portions of the younger arc complex are represented by the Ablah, Samran, and possibly the Ararat groups. The ensimatic portion of the younger arc group is represented by the Halaban group, which was deposited to the east and northeast of the older ensimatic-arc complex. The Halaban group includes andesitic and dacitic volcanic rocks and associated clastic sedimentary rocks. The layered rocks of both arc complexes are intruded by dioritic (quartz diorite, tonalite, trondhjemite) plutonic rocks. The southern Shield is also subdivided into a number of structurally bounded, north-trending tectonic belts. Within the older ensimatic complex, three belts are recognized. From west to east, these are the Lith, Bidah, and Tayyah belts. Within these three belts, progressive facies changes indicate a gradation from deep-water facies in the south to shallow-water or-terrestrial facies in the north. The distribution of dioritic batholiths, as well as the distribution of layered-rock facies, suggests a northwest-trending axis for the older ensimatic-arc complex. The younger arc complex is present within six belts, the Makkah source papers. In Fleck and others (1980), the term 'quartz diorite' includes both tonalite and quartz diorite as defined in the International Union of Geological Sciences (IUGS) system of plutonic rock classification (Streckeisen, 1973). Initial 87Sr/86Sr ratios are not included in the appendix, but all rocks more than 660 m.y. old have initial ratios in the range 0.7021-0.7035, with only two greater than 0.7030. Thus, nothing in the Rb-Sr data suggests involvement of an older continental crust during the evolution of the southern Shield. A lead isotope study of ore minerals and potassium feldspars of the Arabian Shield by Stacey and others (1980) also suggests that no older (Archean to early Proterozoic) evolved continental-type crust underlies the southern Shield. An early summary of mapping (Schmidt and others, 1973) suggests that older sialic basement underlies the late Proterozoic layered rocks in the southern Shield. However, subsequent-mapping and the isotopic studies cited above have established that all of these rocks are of late Proterozoic age and that all rocks of the southern Shield that are more than 660 m.y. old have ensimatic or mantle isotopic characteristics. Figure 2 shows, with only two exceptions, that rocks more than 800 m.y. old are present west of the boundary separating the Tayyah and Khadra belts. The exceptions are two poorly controlled Rb-Sr ages obtained by Fleck (1980) on two quartz diorite plutons in the Malahah region (appendix 1, localities 26 and 27). Preliminary uranium-thorium zircon data of Stacey now suggest that one of these quartz diorite plutons (locality 26) has an age of approximately 640 m.y. Therefore, we prefer to discount the two dates of Fleck until further information is available. As noted earlier and as described below, most of the rocks of the southern Arabian Shield have characteristics typical of those formed in the island-arc environment by subduction-related processes. We shall refer to the group of rocks in the western part of the southern Shield, which formed from 1100 to 800 m.y. ago, as the 'older ensimatic-arc complex' and those in the eastern and northwestern parts, which formed from 800 to 690 m.y. ago, as the 'younger marginal-arc compl

Open-File Report↗

Evolution of deformation studies on active Hawaiian volcanoes

Everything responds to pressure, even rocks. Deformation studies involve measuring and interpreting the changes in elevations and horizontal positions of the land surface or sea floor. These studies are variously referred to as geodetic changes or ground-surface deformations and are sometimes indexed under the general heading of geodesy. Deformation studies have been particularly useful on active volcanoes and in active tectonic areas. A great amount of time and energy has been spent on measuring geodetic changes on Kilauea and Mauna Loa Volcanoes in Hawai`i. These changes include the build-up of the surface by the piling up and ponding of lava flows, the changes in the surface caused by erosion, and the uplift, subsidence, and horizontal displacements of the surface caused by internal processes acting beneath the surface. It is these latter changes that are the principal concern of this review. A complete and objective review of deformation studies on active Hawaiian volcanoes would take many volumes. Instead, we attempt to follow the evolution of the most significant observations and interpretations in a roughly chronological way. It is correct to say that this is a subjective review. We have spent years measuring and recording deformation changes on these great volcanoes and more years trying to understand what makes these changes occur. We attempt to make this a balanced as well as a subjective review; the references are also selective rather than exhaustive. Geodetic changes caused by internal geologic processes vary in magnitude from the nearly infinitesimal - one micron or less, to the very large - hundreds of meters. Their apparent causes also are varied and include changes in material properties and composition, atmospheric pressure, tidal stress, thermal stress, subsurface-fluid pressure (including magma pressure, magma intrusion, or magma removal), gravity, and tectonic stress. Deformation is measured in units of strain or displacement. For example, tilt of the ground surface on the rim of Kilauea Caldera is measured in microradians, a strain unit that gives the change in angle from some reference. The direction in which the tilt is measured must be defined - north or south, or some direction normal to the maximum changes. For displacements related to surface faulting, the changes are normally given in linear measures of offset. Changes in the diameter of a caldera can be given in either displacements or strain units. In the later case, the displacement divided by the 'original' diameter gives the strain ratio. Strains are dimensionless numbers; displacements have the dimensions of length. Vectors commonly are used to show the direction and amount of displacements in plan view. Strain results from stress. It can be elastic strain, when the strain is linearly related to stress and is recoverable; it can be viscous strain, where the rate of strain is proportional to the stress and is not recoverable; or it can be plastic strain that is often some complex stress-strain relationship, for example, elastic up to some yield strength and viscous beyond. Volcanic rocks are brittle when cold and under near-surface pressures but plastic to viscous under higher temperature and pressure regimes. It is important in deformation studies to try to define the nature of the strain and the rheology of the rocks being deformed. A good text on rheology is 'The Structure and Rheology of Complex Fluids' by R.G. Larson, 1999. Under changing tensional or compressional stresses, tiny cracks in brittle rocks may open or close, causing a quasielastic strain response. If the stresses exceed the breaking strength of the rock, brittle failure occurs, and the stress-strain relationship breaks down.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Estimation of dissolved-solids concentrations using continuous water-quality monitoring and regression models at four sites in the Yuma area, Arizona and California, January 2017 through March 2019

Multiple linear regression models were developed to estimate dissolved-solids concentrations in water at four sites in the Yuma area between Imperial Dam, Arizona and California and the southerly international boundary with Mexico at San Luis, Arizona. Continuous and discrete water-quality data were collected at gaging stations in the Colorado River upstream from Imperial Dam, Arizona-California, the Colorado River below Cooper wasteway near Yuma, Arizona, the Yuma Main Drain above Arizona–Sonora, Mexico boundary, and the 242 lateral above Main Drain at the Arizona–Sonora boundary. Continuous specific conductance and water temperature data were collected at each site between January 2017 and March 2019. Bi-weekly to monthly dissolved-solids water samples were collected during the same period. Continuous specific conductance data collected at the Colorado River below Cooper wasteway were affected by poorly mixed streamflow during periods when the Pilot Knob Hydro-electric Plant was releasing water to the river. The continuous specific conductance data for the site downstream from Cooper wasteway were corrected using mean specific conductance values computed from cross-section measurements collected during site visits. Continuous specific conductance data were affected by sensor fouling issues at the 242 lateral site, and continued operation at the site would require more frequent visits for cleaning and service to ensure data quality. During the study, instream specific conductance readings ranged from 966 to 3,030 microsiemens per centimeter (μS/cm) at 25 degrees Celsius. Computed dissolved-solids concentrations from discrete samples ranged from 690 to 2,580 milligrams per liter (mg/L). Dissolved-solids concentrations were estimated from regression models using the optimal relation between dissolved solids and environmental factors, such as specific conductance, water temperature, dissolved oxygen, streamflow, and seasonality. Specific conductance was the primary factor at all four sites and explained 87.6 to 94 percent of variation in dissolved solids. Water temperature, as an indicator of seasonality, was determined to be a statistically significant secondary factor at both the Colorado River above Imperial Dam and Colorado River below Cooper wasteway sites explaining an additional 6.9 and 2.1 percent of variation in dissolved solids, respectively. Regression models explained 87.6 to 96.9 percent of the variation in dissolved solids; the root mean square error in the modeled data ranged between about 6 and 27 mg/L.

Arizona, California↗

An assessment of volcanic threat and monitoring capabilities in the United States: Framework for a National Volcano Early Warning System

Executive Summary NVEWS – a National Volcano Early Warning System – is being formulated by the Consortium of U.S. Volcano Observatories (CUSVO) to establish a proactive, fully integrated, national-scale monitoring effort that ensures the most threatening volcanoes in the United States are properly monitored in advance of the onset of unrest and at levels commensurate with the threats posed. Volcanic threat is the combination of hazards (the destructive natural phenomena produced by a volcano) and exposure (people and property at risk from the hazards). The United States has abundant volcanoes, and over the past 25 years the Nation has experienced a diverse range of the destructive phenomena that volcanoes can produce. Hazardous volcanic activity will continue to occur, and – because of increasing population, increasing development, and expanding national and international air traffic over volcanic regions – the exposure of human life and enterprise to volcano hazards is increasing. Fortunately, volcanoes exhibit precursory unrest that if detected and analyzed in time allows eruptions to be anticipated and communities at risk to be forewarned with reliable information in sufficient time to implement response plans and mitigation measures. In the 25 years since the cataclysmic eruption of Mount St. Helens, scientific and technological advances in volcanology have been used to develop and test models of volcanic behavior and to make reliable forecasts of expected activity a reality. Until now, these technologies and methods have been applied on an ad hoc basis to volcanoes showing signs of activity. However, waiting to deploy a robust, modern monitoring effort until a hazardous volcano awakens and an unrest crisis begins is socially and scientifically unsatisfactory because it forces scientists, civil authorities, citizens, and businesses into “playing catch up” with the volcano, trying to get instruments and civil-defense measures in place before the unrest escalates and the situation worsens. Inevitably, this manner of response results in our missing crucial early stages of the volcanic unrest and hampers our ability to accurately forecast events. Restless volcanoes do not always progress to eruption; nevertheless, monitoring is necessary in such cases to minimize either over-reacting, which costs money, or under-reacting, which may cost lives. Volcano monitoring in the U.S. is conducted by five volcano observatories, supported primarily by the USGS Volcano Hazards Program. Under the Stafford Act, the USGS is responsible for issuing timely warnings of potential volcanic disasters to the affected populace and civil authorities. To make maximum use of the Nation’s scientific resources, the USGS operates the observatories with the help of universities and other governmental agencies, through formal partnerships. At present, about half of the most threatening U.S. volcanoes are monitored at a basic level with real-time sensors (primarily seismic arrays), and a few are well monitored with a suite of modern instrument types and methods. However, monitoring capabilities at many hazardous volcanoes are known to be sparse or antiquated, and some hazardous volcanoes have no ground-based monitoring whatsoever.

Marianas Islands↗

Index of surface-water stations in Texas, January 1985

The U.S. Geological Survey's investigations of the water resources of Texas are conducted in cooperation with the Texas Department of Water Resources, river authorities, cities, counties, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, International Boundary and Water Commission, and others. As of January 1, 1984, 404 streamflow, 89 reservoir-contents, 32 stage, 10 crest-stage partial-record, 2 periodic discharge through range, 31 flood-hydrograph partial-record, 15 flood-profile partial-record, 41 low-flow partial-record, 11 tide-level, 49 daily chemical-quality, 26 continuous-recording water-quality, 100 periodic biological, 19 lake surveys, 170 periodic organic and (or) nutrient, 3 periodic insecticide, 57 periodic pesticide, 25 automatic sampler, 152 periodic minor elements, 147 periodic chemical-quality y 102 periodic physical-organic, 7 continuous-recording four-parameter water-quality, 3 sediment, 40 periodic sediment, 28 continuous-recording temperature, and 38 national stream-quality accounting network stations were in operation. Plate 1 shows the location of surface-water streamflow or reservoir content and chemical-quality or sediment stations in Texas. Plate 2 shows the location of partial-record surface-water stations. This index shows the station number -and name, latitude and longitude, type of data collected, and the office principally responsible for the data collection (table 1). An 8-digit permanent numerical designation for gaging stations has been adopted on a nationwide basis; stations are numbered and listed in downstream order. In the downstream direction along the main stem, all stations on a tributary entering above a main-stem station are listed before that station. A tributary entering between two main-stem stations is listed between them. A similar order is followed in listing stations on first rank, second rank, and other ranks of tributaries. To indicate the rank of any tributary on which a gaging station is situated and the stream to which it is an immediate tributary, each indention in the listing of gaging stations represent one rank. This downstream order and system of indention show which gaging stations are on tributaries between any two stations on a main stem and the rank of the tributary on which each gaging station is situated. On plates 1 and 2, the 8-digit station number is abbreviated because of space limitation.

Texas↗

Index of surface-water stations in Texas, January 1984

The U.S. Geological Survey's investigations of the water resources of Texas are conducted in cooperation with the Texas Department of Water Resources, river authorities, cities, counties, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, International Boundary and Water Commission, and others. Investigations are under the general direction of C. W. Boning, District Chief, Texas District. The Texas District office is located in the Federal Building, 300 East 8th Street, Austin, Texas 78701. As of January 1, 1984, 399 stream-gaging, 86 reservoir-contents, 19 stage, 2 periodic discharge through range, 42 flood-hydrograph partial-record, 15 floodprofile partial-record, 34 low-flow partial-record, 11 crest-stage partial-record, 11 tide-level , 60 daily chemical-qual ity, 27 continuous-recording water-quality, 187 periodic chemical-qual ity, 175 periodic organic-quality, 60 pesticides, 1 sediment, 43 periodic sediment, 109 periodic biological, 28 continuous-recording water temperature, and 37 national stream-quality accounting network stations were in operation. Plate 1 shows the location of surface-water streamflow or reservoircontent and chemical-qual ity or sediment stations in Texas. Plate 2 shows the location of partial-record surface-water stations. This index shows the station number and name, latitude and longitude, type of data collected, and the office principally responsible for the data collection (table 1). An 8-digit permanent numerical designation for gaging stations has been adopted on a nationwide basis; stations are numbered and listed in downstream order. In the downstream direction along the main stem, all stations on a tributary entering above a main-stem station are listed before that station. A tributary entering between two main-stem stations is listed between them. A similar order is followed in listing stations on first rank, second rank, and other ranks of tributaries. To indicate the rank of any tributary on which a gaging station is situated and the stream to which it is an immediate tributary, each indention in the listing of gaging stations represent one rank. This downstream order and system of indention show which gaging stations are on tributaries between any two stations on a main stem and the rank of the tributary on which each gaging station is situated. On plates 1 and 2 the 8-digit station number is abbreviated because of space limitation.

Texas↗

Simulations of a hypothetical temperature control structure at Detroit Dam on the North Santiam River, northwestern Oregon

Water temperature models of Detroit Lake, Big Cliff Lake, and the North Santiam River in northwestern Oregon were used to assess the potential for a hypothetical structure with variable intake elevations and an internal connection to power turbines at Detroit Dam (scenario SlidingWeir ) to release more natural, pre-dam temperatures year round. This hypothetical structure improved outflow temperature control from Detroit Dam while meeting minimum dry-season release rates and lake levels specified by the rule curve specified for Detroit Lake. A water temperature target based on long-term, without-dams temperature estimates was developed and used to guide the Detroit Lake model to blend releases from the user-defined outlets at Detroit Dam. Simulations that included warm surface water releases during the spring and summer, and cool, deep hypolimnetic water releases later during autumn typically met the temperature target. Immediately downstream of Detroit Dam, these simulations resulted in temperatures within the range of the without-dams temperature estimates for most of the year until about November. The minimum release rates of flow imposed at Detroit Dam during late summer and early autumn exceeded unregulated, without-dams flow estimates. This higher flow led to temperatures near the low end of the without-dams temperature range 46.3 river miles downstream at Greens Bridge from July to September; the high flows released from Detroit Dam were less susceptible to downstream warming than the low unregulated flows. Simulations that blended warm and cool water from different outlets at Detroit Dam resulted in less daily temperature variation compared to the without-dams scenarios as far downstream as Greens Bridge. Estimated egg-emergence days for endangered Upper Willamette River Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) and Upper Willamette River winter steelhead ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) were assessed for all scenarios. Estimated spring Chinook fry emergence under SlidingWeir scenarios was 9 days later immediately downstream of Big Cliff Dam, and 4 days later at Greens Bridge compared with existing structural scenarios at Detroit Dam. Despite the inclusion of a hypothetical sliding weir at Detroit Dam, temperatures exceeded without-dams temperatures during November and December. These late-autumn exceedances likely represent the residual thermal effect of Detroit Lake operated to meet minimum dry-season release rates (supporting instream habitat and irrigation requirements) and lake levels specified by the current (2014) operating rules (supporting recreation and flood mitigation).

Oregon↗

Coal resources of the Sonda coal field, Sindh Province, Pakistan

Approximately 4.7 billion t of original coal resources, ranging from lignite A to subbituminous C in rank, are estimated to be present in the Sonda coal field. These resources occur in 10 coal zones in the Bara Formation of Paleocene age. The Bara Formation does not out crop in the area covered by this report. Thin discontinuous coal beds also occur in the Sonhari Member of the Laki Formation, of Paleocene and Eocene age, but they are unimportant as a resource of the Sonda coal field. The coal resource assessment was based on 56 exploratory drill holes that were completed in the Sonda field between April 1986 and February 1988. The Sonda coal field is split into two, roughly equal, areas by the southwestward flowing Indus River, a major barrier to the logistics of communications between the two halves. As a result the two halves, called the Sonda East and Sonda West areas, were evaluated at different times by slightlydifferent techniques; but, because the geology is consistent between the two areas, the results of both evaluations have been summarized in this report. The resource estimates for the Sonda East area, approximately 1,700 million t, were based on the thickest coal bed in each zone at each drill hole. This method gives a conservative estimate of the total amount of coal in the Sonda East area. The resource estimates for the Sonda West area, approximately 3,000 million t, were based on cumulative coal bed thicknesses within each coal zone, resulting in a more liberal estimate. In both cases, minimum parameters for qualifying coal were a thickness of 30 cm or greater and no more than 50% ash; partings thicker than 1 cm were excluded. The three most important coal zones in the Sonda field are the Inayatabad, the Middle Sonda and the Lower Sonda. Together, these three coal zones contain 50% of the total resources. Isopachs were constructed for the thickest coal beds in these three coal zones and indicate large variations in thickness over relatively small distances. Coal beds in the Sonda coal field were difficult to correlate because of poor core recovery in some intervals and abrupt lateral thinning and thickening. Most coal zones are separated by 5–10 m of interburden, although in some places the interburden between zones is over 100 m thick. More closely spaced drill holes should clarify and significantly improve coal zone correlations in the Bara Formation. Coal resources in the Sonda coal field were calculated for three reliability categories; measured, indicated, and inferred. The most reliable estimates are those for the measured category. Measured coal resources are approximately 91 million t, or about 2% of the total resource; indicated resources are 681 million t, or about 14% of the total; and inferred resources, the least reliable resource category, are 3,931 million t, or 84% of the total resources. The distribution of resources by reliability category is due to the relatively wide spacing (approximately 5 km) between core holes. Analyses of 90 coal samples, on an as-received basis, indicate average ash and sulfur contents of 13.7% and 3.6%, respectively, and a range in rank from lignite A to subbituminous C. Calorific values for these samples range from 6,000 to 8,000 Btu/lb (1 Btu = 1055J; 1 lb = 4536 kg).

International Journal of Coal Geology↗