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At least 1,585 records · Page 88Linked to original sources

USGS1992

Continuous 500,000-year climate record from vein calcite in Devils Hole, Nevada

Oxygen-18 (δ 18 O) variations in a 36-centimeter-long core (DH-11) of vein calcite from Devils Hole, Nevada, yield an uninterrupted 500,000-year paleotemperature record that closely mimics all major features in the Vostok (Antarctica) paleotemperature and marine δ 18 O ice-volume records. The chronology for this continental record is based on 21 replicated mass-spectrometric uranium-series dates. Between the middle and latest Pleistocene, the duration of the last four glacial cycles recorded in the calcite increased from 80,000 to 130,000 years; this variation suggests that major climate changes were aperiodic. The timing of specific climatic events indicates that orbitally controlled variations in solar insolation were not a major factor in triggering deglaciations. Interglacial climates lasted about 20,000 years. Collectively, these observations are inconsistent with the Milankovitch hypothesis for the origin of the Pleistocene glacial cycles but they are consistent with the thesis that these cycles originated from internal nonlinear feedbacks within the atmosphere-ice sheet-ocean system.

Nevada↗

USGS2015

Climate change and physical disturbance manipulations result in distinct biological soil crust communities

Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) colonize plant interspaces in many drylands and are critical to soil nutrient cycling. Multiple climate change and land use factors have been shown to detrimentally impact biocrusts on a macroscopic (i.e., visual) scale. However, the impact of these perturbations on the bacterial components of the biocrusts remain poorly understood. We employed multiple long-term field experiments to assess the impacts of chronic physical (foot trampling) and climatic changes (2 °C soil warming, altered summer precipitation (wetting), and combined warming and wetting) on biocrust bacterial biomass, composition, and metabolic profile. The biocrust bacterial communities adopted distinct states based on the mechanism of disturbance. Chronic trampling decreased biomass and caused small community compositional change. Soil warming had little effect on biocrust biomass or composition, while wetting resulted in an increase in cyanobacterial biomass and altered bacterial composition. Warming combined with wetting dramatically altered bacterial composition and decreased cyanobacteria abundance. Shotgun metagenomic sequencing identified four functional gene categories that differed in relative abundance among the manipulations, suggesting that climate and land use changes affected soil bacterial functional potential. This study illustrates that different types of biocrust disturbance damage biocrusts in macroscopically similar ways, but they differentially impact the resident soil bacterial communities and the community functional profile can differ depending on the disturbance type. Therefore, the nature of the perturbation and the microbial response are important considerations for management and restoration of drylands.

Utah↗

USGS1998

Water-level changes in Lake Baikal, Siberia: Tectonism versus climate

Relative changes in the level of Lake Baikal, amounting to hundreds of meters in Quaternary time, are well documented. Data presented here show that tectonic displacements of the lake outlet or former shoreline features are entirely sufficient to explain these relative lake-level changes. In contrast, the morphology and hydrology of the lake make its level hydrologically insensitive to climate change. Available evidence indicates that, throughout the past several hundred thousand years, Lake Baikal was a dilute, through-flowing lake controlled by the level of its outlet. On the basis of geologic data alone, climatic effects on lake level, whatever their magnitude, are difficult to separate from those caused by active rift tectonism. However, consideration of (1) the hydrologic budget of the lake and (2) the configuration of the outlet suggests that potential lake-level fluctuations due solely to climate change were less than about 2 m.

Geology↗

USGS2009

Variability of the Southern California wave climate and implications for sediment transport

We analyzed wave and wind data from 18 buoys in the Southern California Bight to characterize the spatial and temporal variability of the regional wave climate. Point Conception shelters most of the Bight from being directly impacted by North Pacific weather. The wave height inside the sheltered zone and to the east of the Channel Islands is less than half the wave height in the open ocean to the west. Within the sheltered Bight, storm waves (by proxy of being greater than the 95th percentile wave height for more than 6 hours) are mainly from the west, but long period swells (T p >15 seconds) are mainly from the south-southwest. There are on average two to four storms during each winter month (November-March) and fewer than two storms per month for the rest of the year. The Channel Islands selectively block the westerly swells and make the wave climate in the Santa Barbara Channel different from the rest of the sheltered Bight. A statistically significant wave-height minimum exists in the area offshore Dana Point and Oceanside. The multiyear (2-23 years) wave-data records from all 18 buoys show negligible temporal trend, positive or negative. Like the wave climate, the long-term probability of sediment transport on the continental shelves of the Bight displays large difference between the sheltered and open-ocean (near Point Conception) sites. The return period of incipient sediment motion on the sheltered shelf breaks (one to five months) is at least two orders of magnitude longer than that on the Point Conception shelf break (0.6 day). Similar to the spatial distribution of wave heights, there is a systematic return-period maximum on the shelf off Dana Point and Oceanside. ?? 2009 The Geological Society of America.

Special Paper of the Geological Society of America↗

USGS2013

Covariation of climate and long-term erosion rates acrossa steep rainfall gradient on the Hawaiian island of Kaua'i

Erosion of volcanic ocean islands creates dramatic landscapes, modulates Earth’s carbon cycle, and delivers sediment to coasts and reefs. Because many volcanic islands have large climate gradients and minimal variations in lithology and tectonic history, they are excellent natural laboratories for studying climatic effects on the evolution of topography. Despite concerns that modern sediment fluxes to island coasts may exceed long-term fluxes, little is known about how erosion rates and processes vary across island interiors, how erosion rates are influenced by the strong climate gradients on many islands, and how modern island erosion rates compare to long-term rates. Here, we present new measurements of erosion rates over 5 yr to 5 m.y. timescales on the Hawaiian island of Kaua‘i, across which mean annual precipitation ranges from 0.5 to 9.5 m/yr. Eroded rock volumes from basins across Kaua‘i indicate that million-year-scale erosion rates are correlated with modern mean annual precipitation and range from 8 to 335 t km –2 yr –1 . In Kaua‘i’s Hanalei River basin, 3 He concentrations in detrital olivines imply millennial-scale erosion rates of >126 to >390 t km –2 yr –1 from olivine-bearing hillslopes, while fluvial suspended sediment fluxes measured from 2004 to 2009 plus estimates of chemical and bed-load fluxes imply basin-averaged erosion rates of 545 ± 128 t km –2 yr –1 . Mapping of landslide scars in satellite imagery of the Hanalei basin from 2004 and 2010 implies landslide-driven erosion rates of 30–47 t km –2 yr –1 . These measurements imply that modern erosion rates in the Hanalei basin are no more than 2.3 ± 0.6 times faster than millennial-scale erosion rates, and, to the extent that modern precipitation patterns resemble long-term patterns, they are consistent with a link between precipitation rates and long-term erosion rates.

Hawai'i↗

USGS2020

Coarse sediment dynamics in a large glaciated river system: Holocene history and storage dynamics dictate contemporary climate sensitivity

The gravel-bedded White River drains a 1279 km 2 basin in Washington State, with lowlands sculpted by continental glaciation and headwaters on an actively glaciated stratovolcano. Chronic aggradation along an alluvial fan near the river’s mouth has progressively reduced flood conveyance. In order to better understand how forecasted climate change may influence coarse sediment delivery and aggradation rates in this lowland depositional setting, we assessed the contemporary delivery and routing of coarse sediment through the watershed; this assessment was based on a rich set of topographic, sedimentologic, and hydrologic data from the past century, with a focus on repeat high-resolution topographic surveys from the past decade. We found that most of the lower river’s contemporary bed-load flux originates from persistent erosion of alluvial deposits in the lower watershed. This erosion is a response to a drop in local base level caused by a major avulsion across the fan in 1906 and then augmented by subsequent dredging. The 1906 avulsion and modern disequilibrium valley profiles reflect landscape conditioning by continental glaciation and a massive mid-Holocene lahar. In the proglacial headwaters, infrequent large sediment pulses have accomplished most of the observed coarse sediment export, with exported material blanketing downstream valley floors; during typical floods, transported bed material is largely sourced from erosion of these valley floor deposits. Throughout the watershed, we observe decadal-scale coarse sediment dynamics strongly related to the filling or emptying of valley-scale sediment storage over 10 2 −10 4 yr time scales, often in response to major disturbances that either emplace large deposits or influence their redistribution. Paraglacial responses in large watersheds are suggested to be inherently complicated and punctuated as a result of internal landform interactions and stochastic/threshold-dependent events. We argue, in combination, that Holocene disturbance, storage dynamics, and human flow modification make coarse sediment fluxes in the lower White River relatively insensitive to decadal climate variability. Results highlight the degree to which river sensitivity to contemporary disturbance, climatic or otherwise, may be contingent on local and idiosyncratic watershed histories, underscoring the need to unpack those histories while demonstrating the utility of watershed-scale high-resolution topography toward that end.

Washington↗

USGS2004

Enhanced marine productivity off western North America during warm climate intervals of the past 52 k.y

Studies of the Santa Barbara Basin off the coast of California have linked changes in its bottom-water oxygen content to millennial-scale climate changes as recorded by the oxygen isotope composition of Greenland ice. Through the use of detailed records from a sediment core collected off the Magdalena Margin of Baja California, Mexico, we demonstrate that this teleconnection predominantly arose from changes in marine productivity, rather than changes in ventilation of the North Pacific, as was originally proposed. One possible interpretation is that the modern balance of El Nin??o-La Nin??a conditions that favors a shallow nutricline and high productivity today and during warm climate intervals of the past 52 k.y. was altered toward more frequent, deep nutricline, low productivity, El Nin??o-like conditions during cool climate intervals. ?? 2004 Geological Society of America.

Geology↗

USGS2017

East African weathering dynamics controlled by vegetation-climate feedbacks

Tropical weathering has important linkages to global biogeochemistry and landscape evolution in the East African rift. We disentangle the influences of climate and terrestrial vegetation on chemical weathering intensity and erosion at Lake Malawi using a long sediment record. Fossil pollen, microcharcoal, particle size, and mineralogy data affirm that the detrital clays accumulating in deep water within the lake are controlled by feedbacks between climate and hinterland forest composition. Particle-size patterns are also best explained by vegetation, through feedbacks with lake levels, wildfires, and erosion. We develop a new source-to-sink framework that links lacustrine sedimentation to hinterland vegetation in tropical rifts. Our analysis suggests that climate-vegetation interactions and their coupling to weathering/erosion could threaten future food security and has implications for accurately predicting petroleum play elements in continental rift basins.

Geology↗

USGS2016

Are brown trout replacing or displacing bull trout populations in a changing climate?

Understanding how climate change may facilitate species turnover is an important step in identifying potential conservation strategies. We used data from 33 sites in western Montana to quantify climate associations with native bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) and non-native brown trout (Salmo trutta) abundance and population growth rates (λ). We estimated λ using exponential growth state space models and delineated study sites based on bull trout use for either Spawning and Rearing (SR) or Foraging, Migrating, and Overwintering (FMO) habitat. Bull trout abundance was negatively associated with mean August stream temperatures within SR habitat (r = -0.75). Brown trout abundance was generally highest at temperatures between 12 and 14°C. We found bull trout λ were generally stable at sites with mean August temperature below 10°C but significantly decreasing, rare, or extirpated at 58% of the sites with temperatures exceeding 10°C. Brown trout λ were highest in SR and sites with temperatures exceeding 12°C. Declining bull trout λs at sites where brown trout were absent suggests brown trout are likely replacing bull trout in a warming climate.

Idaho, Montana↗

USGS2017

Climate-induced trends in predator–prey synchrony differ across life-history stages of an anadromous salmonid

Differential climate-induced shifts in phenology can create mismatches between predators and prey, but few studies have examined predator–prey mismatch across multiple life-history stages. We used long-term data from a warming stream with shifting salmonid migration timings to quantify intra-annual migration synchrony between predatory Dolly Varden ( Salvelinus malma ) and Pacific salmon prey and examined how predator–prey synchrony has been influenced by climate change. We demonstrate that Dolly Varden have become increasingly mismatched with spring downstream migrations of abundant pink salmon ( Oncorhynchus gorbuscha ) juveniles. However, Dolly Varden have remained matched with fall upstream migrations of spawning Pacific salmon, including coho ( Oncorhynchus kisutch ), sockeye ( Oncorhynchus nerka ), and pink salmon. Downstream predator–prey migration synchrony decreased over time and with higher temperatures, particularly with pink salmon. In contrast, upstream migration synchrony was temporally stable and increased with rising temperatures. Differing trends in Dolly Varden predator–prey synchrony may be explained by the direct use of salmon to cue upstream migration, but not downstream migration. Overall, we show that climate change can have differing impacts on predator–prey synchrony across life-history stages.

Alaska↗

USGS2019

Influences of spawning timing, water temperature, and climatic warming on early life history phenology in western Alaska sockeye salmon

We applied an empirical model to predict hatching and emergence timing for 25 western Alaska sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) populations in four lake-nursery systems to explore current patterns and potential responses of early life history phenology to warming water temperatures. Given experienced temperature regimes during development, we predicted hatching to occur in as few as 58 d to as many as 260 d depending on spawning timing and temperature. For a focal lake spawning population, our climate-lake temperature model predicted a water temperature increase of 0.7 to 1.4 °C from 2015 to 2099 during the incubation period, which translated to a 16 d to 30 d earlier hatching timing. The most extreme scenarios of warming advanced development by approximately a week earlier than historical minima and thus climatic warming may lead to only modest shifts in phenology during the early life history stage of this population. The marked variation in the predicted timing of hatching and emergence among populations in close proximity on the landscape may serve to buffer this metapopulation from climate change.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗

USGS2021

Influence of water temperature and biotic interactions on the distribution of westslope cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii lewisi) in a population stronghold under climate change

Climate warming is expected to have substantial impacts on native trout across the Rocky Mountains, but there is little understanding of how these changes affect future distributions of co-occurring native fishes within population strongholds. We used mixed-effects logistic regression to investigate the role of abiotic (e.g., temperature) and biotic factors (bull trout presence, Salvelinus confluentus ) on distributions of westslope cutthroat trout ( Oncorhynchus clarkii lewisi ; WCT) in the North Fork Flathead River, USA and Canada. The probability of WCT presence increased with stream temperature and decreased with channel gradient and bull trout presence, yet the effect of bull trout was reduced with increasing pool densities. Combining this model with spatially explicit stream temperature projections, we predict a 29% increase in suitable habitat under high emissions through 2075, with gains at mid-elevation sites predicted to exceed bull trout thermal tolerances and high-elevation sites expected to become more thermally suitable for WCT. Our study illustrates the importance of considering abiotic and biotic drivers to assess species response to climate change, helping to guide local-scale climate adaptation and management.

Alberta, British Columbia, Montana↗

USGS2022

Physiological and nutritional constraints on zooplankton productivity due to eutrophication and climate change predicted using a resource-based modeling approach

Emerging evidence suggests that zooplankton production is affected by physiological and nutritional constraints due to climate change and eutrophication, which in turn could have broad implications for food-web dynamics and fisheries production. In this study, we developed a resource-based zooplankton production dynamics model that causally links freshwater cladoceran and copepod daily production-to-biomass (P/B) ratios with water temperature, phytoplankton biomass and community composition, and zooplankton feeding selectivity. This model was used to evaluate constraints on zooplankton growth under four hypothetical scenarios: involving natural plankton community seasonal succession; lake fertilization to enhance fisheries production; eutrophication; and climatic warming. Our novel modeling approach predicts zooplankton production is strongly dependent on seasonal variation in resource availability and quality, which results in more complex zooplankton dynamics than predicted by simpler temperature dependent models. For mesotrophic and hypereutrophic lakes, our study suggests that the ultimate control over zooplankton P/B ratios shifts from physiological control during colder periods to strong resource control during warmer periods. Our resource-based model provided important insights into the nature of biophysical control of zooplankton under a changing climate that has crucial implications for food web energy transfer and fisheries production.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗

USGS2023

Climate vulnerability for a desert fish: Integrating hydrologic exposures, adaptive capacity, and growth potential

Climate vulnerability can be evaluated by multiple organismal responses. We developed a climate vulnerability framework focused on growth potential of redband trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss newberri). We employed a bioenergetics model to evaluate spatial variability in growth potential in relation to constraints on body size imposed by stream flow, physiological responses linked to variable thermal regimes, and variation in physiological adaptive capacity inferred from field respirometry. Results indicate that maximum size (g) of redband trout increases with stream discharge. Growth potential is strongly linked to body size, with smaller individuals performing better relative to larger fish in cooler thermal regimes. Annual patterns of growth varied among sites and were related to body size and physiological adaptive capacity. Putatively cold-adapted fish were more likely to exhibit bimodal growth with peaks in spring and autumn, whereas warm-adapted fish exhibit a summer peak in growth potential. These findings offer insights into how climate vulnerability of stream-living fish can be conditioned on both stream flow and thermal regimes, and the potential for physiological adaptive capacity to influence vulnerability.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗

USGS2006

Forecasting effects of climate change on Great Lakes fisheries: models that link habitat supply to population dynamics can help

Future changes to climate in the Great Lakes may have important consequences for fisheries. Evidence suggests that Great Lakes air and water temperatures have risen and the duration of ice cover has lessened during the past century. Global circulation models (GCMs) suggest future warming and increases in precipitation in the region. We present new evidence that water temperatures have risen in Lake Erie, particularly during summer and winter in the period 19652000. GCM forecasts coupled with physical models suggest lower annual runoff, less ice cover, and lower lake levels in the future, but the certainty of these forecasts is low. Assessment of the likely effects of climate change on fish stocks will require an integrative approach that considers several components of habitat rather than water temperature alone. We recommend using mechanistic models that couple habitat conditions to population demographics to explore integrated effects of climate-caused habitat change and illustrate this approach with a model for Lake Erie walleye ( Sander vitreum ). We show that the combined effect on walleye populations of plausible changes in temperature, river hydrology, lake levels, and light penetration can be quite different from that which would be expected based on consideration of only a single factor.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗

USGS2010

Vulnerability of white spruce tree growth in interior Alaska in response to climate variability: Dendrochronological, demographic, and experimental perspectives

This paper integrates dendrochronological, demographic, and experimental perspectives to improve understanding of the response of white spruce ( Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) tree growth to climatic variability in interior Alaska. The dendrochronological analyses indicate that climate warming has led to widespread declines in white spruce growth throughout interior Alaska that have become more prevalent during the 20th century. Similarly, demographic studies show that white spruce tree growth is substantially limited by soil moisture availability in both mid- and late-successional stands. Interannual variability in tree growth among stands within a landscape exhibits greater synchrony than does growth of trees that occupy different landscapes, which agrees with dendrochronological findings that the responses depend on landscape position and prevailing climate. In contrast, the results from 18 years of a summer moisture limitation experiment showed that growth in midsuccessional upland stands was unaffected by moisture limitation and that moisture limitation decreased white spruce growth in floodplain stands where it was expected that growth would be less vulnerable because of tree access to river water. Taken together, the evidence from the different perspectives analyzed in this study clearly indicates that white spruce tree growth in interior Alaska is vulnerable to the effects of warming on plant water balance.

Alaska↗

USGS1999

Response of high-elevation forests in the Olympic Mountains to climatic change

The gap model ZELIG was used to examine the effects of increased temperature (2°C) and altered precipitation on high-elevation ecosystems of the Olympic Mountains, Washington, U.S.A. Changes in tree species distribution and abundance, as well as stand biomass, were examined on north and south aspects in the dry northeast (NE) and wet southwest (SW) regions of the Olympics for ( i ) warmer, ( ii ) warmer and 20% wetter, and ( iii ) warmer and 20% drier climatic-change scenarios. Dominant tree species shift upwards 300-600 m in elevation in the SW, with subalpine meadows and Tsuga mertensiana (Bong.) Carr. forests being replaced by Abies amabilis (Dougl.) Forbes forests at higher elevations and A. amabilis forests being replaced by Tsuga heterophylla (Raf.) Sarg. forests at lower elevations. In the NE, drought-tolerant species become dominant approximately 200 m lower than present, with A. lasiocarpa dominating the north aspect and Pinus contorta Dougl. ex Loud. the south aspect. Biomass increases in the SW and generally decreases in the NE, depending on aspect and precipitation regime. This study suggests that species and site-specific responses at mesoscale (e.g., wet vs. dry climatic regime) and microscale (e.g., north vs. south aspect) resolutions must be characterized to quantify the variation in potential effects of climatic change on forest vegetation in mountainous regions.

Canadian Journal of Forest Research↗

USGS2023

Incorporating wave climate complexity into modeling lower shoreface morphology and transport

The lower shoreface, a transitional subaqueous region extending from the seaward limit of the surf zone to beyond the closure depth, serves as a sediment reservoir and pathway in sandy beach environments over annual to millennial time scales. Despite the important role this region plays in shoreline dynamics, the morphodynamics of the lower shoreface remain poorly quantified and understood. To better understand controls on shoreface morphology, here we combine energetics-based suspended sediment transport formulae (Ortiz & Aston 2016) with empirical wave climate data to incorporate temporal complexity in modeled equilibrium profiles and sediment flux rates. The equilibrium shoreface shape computed using a full wave climate is steeper in shallower water and less steep in the deeper reaches compared to profiles computed using single wave characteristics. Using a full wave climate to simulate steady-state morphology will yield steeper profiles in shallow water. Suspended sediment transport rates also vary in direction and magnitude at different equilibrium profile depths and can potentially inform the location of morphodynamic boundaries in the shoreface. Our results reveal how infrequent storm waves affect shoreface slopes, with large events tending to drive sediment onshore in the deeper portions of the profile. This work explores a few ways to add complexity to simple energetics-based frameworks to reproduce empirical bathymetric data more accurately and provides insight toward refining coastal source-to-sink models.

Conference Paper↗