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Observing systems, modeling, and forecasting

Predicting harmful algal blooms (HABs) requires integrating physical, chemical, and biological data collected from observing networks and then assimilating these data into models, which are used to generate forecasts. In 2005, the Harmful Algal Research and Response: A National Environmental Science Strategy 2005-2015 (HARRNESS, 2005) made recommendations on how to improve HAB modeling and forecasting over the next decade. Key HARRNESS recommendations related to sensing, networking, and modeling HABs included: ● Support the development and validation of new and improved technologies for remote cell and toxin detection, and for modeling and forecasting, ● Improve coordination of monitoring/ and modeling efforts, both at national and regional levels, ● Improve the use of networking technologies for monitoring and modeling efforts, ● Conduct sustained time series measurements of the biotic, chemical, and physical environments impacted by HABs, ● Develop food web models on the ecosystem fate and effects of toxins, ● Develop and improve species-specific models that link to physical-biological models. Here we review HAB observing, modeling, and forecasting advances and technologies and recommend research and management priorities for the next decade and beyond. Our report encompasses sensing technologies, sensor networking and data management, models and forecasts, and the paths to operationalize forecasts. Continued improvements of deployable sensors are foundational to improving early warning indicators, models, and forecasts, which are only as good as the underlying data. Sensing technology has advanced considerably in the last decade; for example, more capable fluorometric pigment sensors can track changes in bloom biomass in real-time. Additionally, automated imaging/classifying systems to identify and quantify key harmful algal (HA) taxa are being routinely deployed. However, deployable toxin sensors are available for only some HAB toxins and continue to be identified as a critical need by researchers and managers. As more and improved sensors and technologies become available, the data quality associated with each sensor needs to be assessed. Data quality encompasses the reliability, accuracy, and uncertainty associated with sensor-generated data. These data need to be of known quality so that researchers, managers, and end-users can reliably determine if the information is appropriate for their intended applications. Many of the data quality recommendations from HARRNESS (2005) are still relevant and have been reiterated within the management community. Understanding and documenting data quality, and when applicable, standardizing best practices for sensor use, continue to be recommended.

Report↗

Phosphorus and nitrogen concentrations and loads at Illinois River south of Siloam Springs, Arkansas, 1997-1999

Water-quality sampling consisting of every other month (bimonthly) routine sampling and storm event sampling (six storms annually) is used to estimate annual phosphorus and nitrogen loads at Illinois River south of Siloam Springs, Arkansas. Hydrograph separation allowed assessment of base-flow and surfacerunoff nutrient relations and yield. Discharge and nutrient relations indicate that water quality at Illinois River south of Siloam Springs, Arkansas, is affected by both point and nonpoint sources of contamination. Base-flow phosphorus concentrations decreased with increasing base-flow discharge indicating the dilution of phosphorus in water from point sources. Nitrogen concentrations increased with increasing base-flow discharge, indicating a predominant ground-water source. Nitrogen concentrations at higher base-flow discharges often were greater than median concentrations reported for ground water (from wells and springs) in the Springfield Plateau aquifer. Total estimated phosphorus and nitrogen annual loads for calendar year 1997-1999 using the regression techniques presented in this paper (35 samples) were similar to estimated loads derived from integration techniques (1,033 samples). Flow-weighted nutrient concentrations and nutrient yields at the Illinois River site were about 10 to 100 times greater than national averages for undeveloped basins and at North Sylamore Creek and Cossatot River (considered to be undeveloped basins in Arkansas). Total phosphorus and soluble reactive phosphorus were greater than 10 times and total nitrogen and dissolved nitrite plus nitrate were greater than 10 to 100 times the national and regional averages for undeveloped basins. These results demonstrate the utility of a strategy whereby samples are collected every other month and during selected storm events annually, with use of regression models to estimate nutrient loads. Annual loads of phosphorus and nitrogen estimated using regression techniques could provide similar results to estimates using integration techniques, with much less investment.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

U.S. Geological Survey Earthquake Hazards Program decadal science strategy, 2024–33

Executive Summary Earthquakes represent one of our Nation’s most significant and costly natural hazards, with estimated annual loses from earthquakes close to $15 billion in 2023. Over the past two centuries, 37 U.S. States have experienced an earthquake exceeding a magnitude of 5, and 50 percent of States have a significant potential for future damaging shaking; these statistics speak to the need for nationwide interest and investment in earthquake hazard characterization and risk reduction. Authorized under the Earthquake Hazards Reduction Authorization Act, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (EHP) provides the scientific information, situational awareness, and knowledge necessary to reduce deaths, injuries, and economic losses from earthquakes and earthquake-induced tsunamis, landslides, and soil liquefaction. The EHP supports activities in three focused topical areas: (1) earthquake monitoring, (2) hazard assessment, and (3) applied research, using the results of each—and the coordination among them—to further support risk translation and communication in regions at risk nationwide. For earthquake monitoring, the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS), a cooperative effort of USGS networks, university partner regional seismic networks, and real-time geodetic networks, collects and analyzes data on earthquakes; issues timely, reliable notifications of their occurrence and impacts; and provides data for earthquake research, hazard, and risk assessment as a foundation for building an earthquake-resilient Nation. The USGS-operated ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning system is a recent addition to EHP’s ANSS infrastructure. In the realm of earthquake hazard assessment, the EHP contributes to earthquake risk mitigation strategies by developing the National Seismic Hazard Model and maps, and other related products, that describe the likelihood and potential effects of earthquakes nationwide, especially in the urban areas of highest risk. The EHP also conducts research on the causes, characteristics, and effects of earthquakes and prioritizes work that directly increases the accuracy and precision of earthquake hazards assessments, earthquake forecasts, and earthquake monitoring and situational-awareness products and that supports the Nation’s earthquake mitigation practices. Bridging the EHP’s efforts across research, hazard assessments, and earthquake monitoring is a broad and comprehensive collection of earthquake information products, including the National Seismic Hazard Model, ShakeAlert, and other products describing impact, such as ShakeMap and PAGER (Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response), which have been developed and integrated into EHP’s real-time monitoring systems. EHP funds external partners to carry out many important collaborative activities through an active external grants program—one of the largest in the USGS—and through cooperative agreements with other partners such as the university-operated regional seismic networks, funded as part of the ANSS. To continue its support of earthquake hazard characterization and risk reduction, the EHP aims to strengthen its foundational products and practices while positioning itself to respond to the evolving needs of the Nation and follow best practices of the scientific community. This document describes a strategy for the program to ensure it can meet these demands. The foundational priorities outlined in this strategy represent those activities that remain critical to the core functionality of the program and those that can be supported under current fiscal year 2024-level appropriations. Priorities described as aspirational are important for future growth, and to maintain the program’s position as a leading global resource in earthquake science, but would require increases in appropriated funding to be fully realized. Across the program’s portfolio of activities, several major themes have been identified as the most critical activities to advance EHP science over the coming decade. Together, these activities provide the framework necessary to integrate critical hazard characterization and risk reduction activities across the program. They provide the structure for research to advance the understanding of where, when, and why earthquakes occur and how we can use improved knowledge to drive short-term and actionable forecasts of seismic activity. They expand the usefulness of critical earthquake products and advance the sophistication of those products to keep pace with the rapidly evolving needs of an ever-expanding user base while maintaining the position of the USGS as a global leader in earthquake science. Focus on system-level science. Establish an automated earthquake-processing pipeline. Enhance the accuracy and reliability of the ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning system and plan for extension to other regions. Implement time-dependent earthquake forecasting. Develop physically realistic models. Expand computational capacity. This science strategy is organized into three primary sections. The first section provides an overview of the EHP and its budget, governance, and program council. Readers familiar with the program may wish to focus on the second section, which describes the core of the science strategy, including priorities across each of the EHP’s major program activities in monitoring, hazard assessment, and targeted research. The third section outlines science priorities that cut across program activities, including those involving collaborations external to the EHP.

American Samoa, Guam, Northern Marianas Islands, U↗

Pooling resources across organizations — Multisource water-quality data for the Delaware River Basin

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) recently launched a pilot Integrated Water Availability Assessment (IWAA) in the Delaware River Basin to explore, test, and refine systems and processes for assessing water availability for human and ecological uses based on water monitoring data. Water-quality monitoring provides citizens, managers, and scientists with the information needed to evaluate the health of aquatic ecosystems and the safety and availability of water for drinking, agriculture, recreation, and other uses. Many organizations collect water-quality data at various sites and sampling frequencies to meet their assessment needs. The result is multiple individual datasets suitable for the specific organization’s needs that also hold great potential if pooled into a much larger dataset sourced from multiple organizations (multisource data). A multisource dataset increases the value and power of multiple single datasets and expands the breadth and depth of available water-quality data to ultimately increase the number and types of questions that can be answered. This fact sheet describes the process of “harmonizing” water-quality data from multiple organizations and presents a recently developed dataset for surface-water quality in the Delaware River Basin. This harmonized multisource surface-water-quality dataset will serve as a resource for analysis and modeling of surface-water quality to support IWAA efforts in the basin. Furthermore, this harmonization process can be expanded and applied to other regional IWAA basins or applied nationally.

Delaware, Maryland, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylv↗

Projected sea-level rise and high tide flooding at Biscayne National Park, Florida

Introduction National parks and preserves in the South Atlantic-Gulf Region contain valuable coastal habitats such as tidal wetlands and mangrove forests, as well as irreplaceable historic buildings and archeological sites located in low-lying areas. These natural and cultural resources are vulnerable to accelerated sea-level rise and escalating high tide flooding events. Through a Natural Resources Preservation Program-funded project during 2021–23, the U.S. Geological Survey, in collaboration with the National Park Service, estimated the probability of inundation at Biscayne National Park, Florida, and several other parks under various sea-level rise scenarios and contemporary high tide flooding thresholds. The maps produced for this effort can be used to assess potential habitat change and explore how infrastructure and cultural resources within the park may be exposed to future flooding-related hazards.

Florida↗

Geospatial data to support analysis of water-quality conditions in basin-fill aquifers in the southwestern United States

The Southwest Principal Aquifers study area consists of most of California and Nevada and parts of Utah, Arizona, New Mexico, and Colorado; it is about 409,000 square miles. The Basin-fill aquifers extend through about 201,000 square miles of the study area and are the primary source of water for cities and agricultural communities in basins in the arid and semiarid southwestern United States (Southwest). The demand on limited ground-water resources in areas in the southwestern United States has increased significantly. This increased demand underscores the importance of understanding factors that affect the water quality in basin-fill aquifers in the region, which are being studied through the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) program. As a part of this study, spatial datasets of natural and anthropogenic factors that may affect ground-water quality of the basin-fill aquifers in the southwestern United States were developed. These data include physical characteristics of the region, such as geology, elevation, and precipitation, as well as anthropogenic factors, including population, land use, and water use. Spatial statistics for the alluvial basins in the Southwest have been calculated using the datasets. This information provides a foundation for the development of conceptual and statistical models that relate natural and anthropogenic factors to ground-water quality across the Southwest. A geographic information system (GIS) was used to determine and illustrate the spatial distribution of these basin-fill variables across the region. One hundred-meter resolution raster data layers that represent the spatial characteristics of the basins' boundaries, drainage areas, population densities, land use, and water use were developed for the entire Southwest.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico,↗

Data Delivery and Mapping Over the Web: National Water-Quality Assessment Data Warehouse

The U.S. Geological Survey began its National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program in 1991, systematically collecting chemical, biological, and physical water-quality data from study units (basins) across the Nation. In 1999, the NAWQA Program developed a data warehouse to better facilitate national and regional analysis of data from 36 study units started in 1991 and 1994. Data from 15 study units started in 1997 were added to the warehouse in 2001. The warehouse currently contains and links the following data: -- Chemical concentrations in water, sediment, and aquatic-organism tissues and related quality-control data from the USGS National Water Information System (NWIS), -- Biological data for stream-habitat and ecological-community data on fish, algae, and benthic invertebrates, -- Site, well, and basin information associated with thousands of descriptive variables derived from spatial analysis, like land use, soil, and population density, and -- Daily streamflow and temperature information from NWIS for selected sampling sites.

Fact Sheet↗

Projected sea-level rise and high tide flooding at Big Cypress National Preserve, Florida

Introduction National parks and preserves in the South Atlantic-Gulf Region contain valuable coastal habitats such as tidal wetlands and mangrove forests, as well as irreplaceable historic buildings and archeological sites located in low-lying areas. These natural and cultural resources are vulnerable to accelerated sea-level rise and escalating high tide flooding events. Through a Natural Resources Preservation Program-funded project during 2021–23, the U.S. Geological Survey, in collaboration with the National Park Service, estimated the probability of inundation at Big Cypress National Preserve, Florida, and several other parks under various sea-level rise scenarios and contemporary high tide flooding thresholds. The maps produced for this effort can be used to assess potential habitat change and explore how infrastructure and cultural resources within the park may be exposed to future flooding-related hazards.

Florida↗

An evaluation of the applicability of the telluric-electric and audio-magnetotelluric methods to mineral assessment on the Arabian Shield, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

Feasibility studies of two electromagnetic methods were made in selected areas of the Jabal Hibshi (1:250,000) quadrangle, 26F, in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in March of 1983. The methods tested were the natural source-field telluricelectric and audio-magnetotelluric methods developed and extensively used in recent years by the U.S. Geological Survey in some of its domestic programs related to geothermal and mineral resource assessment. Results from limited studies in the Meshaheed district, the Jabal as Silsilah ring complex, and across a portion of the Raha fault zone clearly demonstrate the appropriateness of these sub-regional scale, reconnaissance-type studies to mineral resource assessment. The favorable results obtained are largely attributed to distinctive and large contrasts in the electrical resistivity of the major rock types encountered. It appears that the predominant controlling factor governing the rock resistivities is the amount of contained clay minerals. Accordingly, unaltered (specifically, non-argillic) igneous and metamorphic rocks have very high resistivities; metasedimentary rocks of the Murdama group that contain several percent clay minerals have intermediate values of resistivity; and highly altered rocks, containing abundant clay minerals, have very low values of resistivity. Water-filled fracture porosity may be a secondary, but important, factor in some settings. However, influences from variations in interstitial or intercrystalline, water-filled porosity are probably small because these types of porosity are generally low. It is reasonable to expect similar results in other areas within the Arabian Shield.

Open-File Report↗

Methods for estimating selected low-flow frequency and mean annual flow statistics at gaged and ungaged locations on streams in Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Georgia Department of Natural Resources (Environmental Protection Division), North Carolina Department of Environmental Quality (Division of Water Resources), North Carolina Department of Public Safety (Office of Recovery and Resiliency), and South Carolina Department of Environmental Services, updated low-flow frequency, mean annual flow, and flow-duration statistics at 843 streamgages in and near Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina. The low-flow frequency statistics are annual minimum 1-day average flow with a 10-year recurrence interval (1Q10), annual minimum 7-day average flow for 2- and 10-year recurrence intervals (7Q2 and 7Q10, respectively), and annual minimum 30-day average flow with 2- and 3-year recurrence intervals (30Q2 and 30Q3, respectively). Monthly 1Q10 and 7Q10, and W7Q10 flow statistics for the winter period (November–March) also are presented. By using data from 604 of the streamgages on streams with streamflows that are not substantially affected by regulation or diversion and are not tidally influenced, regional regression equations were developed to predict flow statistics with prediction intervals at ungaged locations on streams with those same criteria. The regional regression analysis included data from 132 streamgages from adjacent States Alabama, Florida, Tennessee, and Virginia. The final regional regression equations include variables such as drainage area, streamflow variability, precipitation, percentage of impervious area, and percentage of the basin in various ecoregions. The low-flow statistics for the streamgages analyzed and the regional regression equations will be integrated into the U.S. Geological Survey StreamStats application ( https://www.usgs.gov/streamstats ) for Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina. StreamStats generates basin characteristics needed to compute low-flow frequency statistics for ungaged locations. A trend analysis of annual minimum 7-day average flows was done for 78 streamgages with at least 30 years of continuous record. Trends were evaluated for 30-, 50‑, 70-, and 90-year periods, ending in climate year 2021, and independence and short- and long-term persistence assumptions were considered. For all trend analysis assumptions, most streamgages did not exhibit significant trends in annual minimum 7-day average flows. Trends in annual precipitation and air temperature were similarly evaluated for the period 1895–2021 to assess the variability of climate for Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina.

Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina↗

Quantitative paleoclimatic reconstructions from late Pleistocene plant macrofossils of the Yucca Mountain region

Plant macrofossil assemblages recovered from packrat (Neotoma) middens of late Pleistocene age from the present-day Mojave Desert of southern Nevada contain plant species that today live at higher elevations and/or farther north than the midden collection sites. Previous reconstructions of late Pleistocene climates from packrat midden assemblages in this region (Spaulding, 1985) assessed the minimum climatic differences from today by estimating the present-day climatic differences between the fossil midden sites and the nearest current occurrences of key plant species recovered from the Pleistocene middens. From this approach Spaulding (1985) concluded that although late Pleistocene temperatures were considerably below those of today, only modest increases in precipitation (relative to today) were necessary for these plant species to survive in the current Mojave Desert during the late Pleistocene. Spaulding's approach provided "state-of-the-art" results from an intensive careful examination of the best data available at the time. However, data and techniques developed since the mid-1980s suggest that there are two possible short-comings to this approach: 1) the use of lowest elevational and (frequently) most southerly occurrences of key plant species results in minimal estimates of the differences between Pleistocene and present-day climates, and 2) the instrumental climate data set available to Spaulding was limited in duration, non-standard in its method of collection, and indicated a modern climate wetter than the long-term historic mean, which resulted in relatively small apparent differences between late Pleistocene and present-day mean annual precipitation levels. In this report we use a more standard (close to the long-term mean) modern calibration period and a modern plant distribution data set that permits us to identify modern analogues for the Pleistocene vegetation. This reexamination permits a more robust reconstruction of the past climate, and results in estimates of mean annual temperature for the glacial maximum at Yucca Mountain that are 1.0° to 1.4° C warmer than those of Spaulding, and estimates of mean annual precipitation that are 60 mm or more higher than his.

Open-File Report↗

Status and trends of land change in the Western United States--1973 to 2000

Preface U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Professional Paper 1794–A is the first in a four-volume series on the status and trends of the Nation’s land use and land cover, providing an assessment of the rates and causes of land-use and land-cover change in the Western United States between 1973 and 2000. Volumes B, C, and D provide similar analyses for the Great Plains, the Midwest–South Central United States, and the Eastern United States, respectively. The assessments of land-use and land-cover trends are conducted on an ecoregion-by-ecoregion basis, and each ecoregion assessment is guided by a nationally consistent study design that includes mapping, statistical methods, field studies, and analysis. Individual assessments provide a picture of the characteristics of land change occurring in a given ecoregion; in combination, they provide a framework for understanding the complex national mosaic of change and also the causes and consequences of change. Thus, each volume in this series provides a regional assessment of how (and how fast) land use and land cover are changing, and why. The four volumes together form the first comprehensive picture of land change across the Nation. Geographic understanding of land-use and land-cover change is directly relevant to a wide variety of stakeholders, including land and resource managers, policymakers, and scientists. The chapters in this volume present brief summaries of the patterns and rates of land change observed in each ecoregion in the Western United States, together with field photographs, statistics, and comparisons with other assessments. In addition, a synthesis chapter summarizes the scope of land change observed across the entire Western United States. The studies provide a way of integrating information across the landscape, and they form a critical component in the efforts to understand how land use and land cover affect important issues such as the provision of ecological goods and services and also the determination of risks to, and vulnerabilities of, human communities. Results from this project also are published in peer-reviewed journals, and they are further used to produce maps of change and other tools for land management, as well as to provide inputs for carbon-cycle modeling and other climate change research. This report is only one of the products produced by USGS on land-use and land-cover change in the United States. Other reports and land-cover statistics are available online at http://landcovertrends.usgs.gov .

Professional Paper↗

Status and trends of land change in the Eastern United States—1973 to 2000

Preface U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Professional Paper 1794–D is the fourth in a four-volume series on the status and trends of the Nation’s land use and land cover, providing an assessment of the rates and causes of land-use and land-cover change in the Eastern United States between 1973 and 2000. Volumes A, B, and C provide similar analyses for the Western United States, the Great Plains of the United States, and the Midwest–South Central United States, respectively. The assessments of land-use and land-cover trends are conducted on an ecoregion-by-ecoregion basis, and each ecoregion assessment is guided by a nationally consistent study design that includes mapping, statistical methods, field studies, and analysis. Individual assessments provide a picture of the characteristics of land change occurring in a given ecoregion; in combination, they provide a framework for understanding the complex national mosaic of change and also the causes and consequences of change. Thus, each volume in this series provides a regional assessment of how (and how fast) land use and land cover are changing, and why. The four volumes together form the first comprehensive picture of land change across the Nation. Geographic understanding of land-use and land-cover change is directly relevant to a wide variety of stakeholders, including land and resource managers, policymakers, and scientists. The chapters in this volume present brief summaries of the patterns and rates of land change observed in each ecoregion in the Eastern United States, together with field photographs, statistics, and comparisons with other assessments. In addition, a synthesis chapter summarizes the scope of land change observed across the entire Eastern United States. The studies provide a way of integrating information across the landscape, and they form a critical component in the efforts to understand how land use and land cover affect important issues such as the provision of ecological goods and services and also the determination of risks to, and vulnerabilities of, human communities. Results from this project also are published in peer-reviewed journals, and they are further used to produce maps of change and other tools for land management, as well as to provide inputs for carbon-cycle modeling and other climate change research. This report is only one of the products produced by USGS on land-use and land-cover change in the United States. Other reports and land-cover statistics are available online at http://landcovertrends.usgs.gov .

Professional Paper↗

Breccia-pipe uranium mining in northern Arizona: Estimate of resources and assessment of historical effects

About 1 million acres of Federal land in the Grand Canyon region of Arizona were temporarily withdrawn from new mining claims in July 2009 by the Secretary of the Interior because of concern that increased uranium mining could have negative impacts on the land, water, people, and wildlife. During a 2-year interval, a Federal team led by the Bureau of Land Management is evaluating the effects of withdrawing these lands for extended periods. As part of this team, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducted a series of short-term studies to examine the historical effects of breccia-pipe uranium mining in the region. The USGS studies provide estimates of uranium resources affected by the possible land withdrawal, examine the effects of previous breccia-pipe mining, summarize water-chemistry data for streams and springs, and investigate potential biological pathways of exposure to uranium and associated contaminants. This fact sheet summarizes results through December 2009 and outlines further research needs.

Arizona↗

A gravity study of the northern part of the Arctic National Wildlife Range, Alaska

Interpretation of all publicly available onshore gravity data provides a basis for outlining regional elements of the basement and overlying structure in the northern part of the Arctic National Wildlife Range. Major post-Carboniferous sedimentary basins whose centers lie offshore on the Beaufort Shelf extend onshore in the northern part of the study area. There is strong evidence that dense basement rocks beneath these onshore extensions rise to relatively shallow depths along the northeast Alaskan coast. Geologic studies and interpretation of the gravity data indicate that the gross structural and stratigraphic framework of this area is similar to that of the Prudhoe Bay region to the west. A high potential for petroleum accumulation in the Wildlife Range is indicated by the surface presence of oil seeps, oil sands, and outcrops of reservoir and source rocks along the southern margins of the onshore basinal areas. Present data suggest that the greatest potential for onshore accumulations of hydrocarbons lies in the area south and east of Barter Island and that possibilities exist there for commercially substantial reserves. The potential of this area cannot be fully assessed, however, until the subsurface extent of several major unconformities is known. Unfortunately, gravity data alone are of little use in such determinations. South of the mountain front, large granitic intrusions are marked by a sharply defined gravity minimum. The subsurface distribution of these bodies could probably be mapped by detailed gravity surveys. Detailed aeromagnetic surveys should serve equally well for such a purpose.

Alaska↗

Hydrology, geomorphology, and flood profiles of Lemon Creek, Juneau, Alaska

Lemon Creek near Juneau, Alaska has a history of extensive gravel mining, which straightened and deepened the stream channel in the lower reaches of the study area. Gravel mining and channel excavation began in the 1940s and continued through the mid-1980s. Time sequential aerial photos and field investigations indicate that the channel morphology is reverting to pre-disturbance conditions through aggradation of sediment and re-establishment of braided channels, which may result in decreased channel conveyance and increased flooding potential. Time sequential surveys of selected channel cross sections were conducted in an attempt to determine rates of channel aggradation/degradation throughout three reaches of the study area. In order to assess flooding potential in the lower reaches of the study area the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center River Analysis System model was used to estimate the water-surface elevations for the 2-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year floods. A regionally based regression equation was used to estimate the magnitude of floods for the selected recurrence intervals. Forty-two cross sections were surveyed to define the hydraulic characteristics along a 1.7-mile reach of the stream. High-water marks from a peak flow of 1,820 cubic feet per second, or about a 5-year flood, were surveyed and used to calibrate the model throughout the study area. The stream channel at a bridge in the lower reach could not be simulated without violating assumptions of the model. A model without the lower bridge indicates flood potential is limited to a small area.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

U.S. Caribbean

Historically, the U.S. Caribbean region has experienced relatively stable seasonal rainfall patterns, moderate annual temperature fluctuations, and a variety of extreme weather events, such as tropical storms, hurricanes, and drought. However, the Caribbean climate is changing and is projected to be increasingly variable as levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere increase. The high percentage of coastal area relative to the total island land area in the U.S. Caribbean means that a large proportion of the region’s people, infrastructure, and economic activity are vulnerable to sea level rise, more frequent intense rainfall events and associated coastal flooding, and saltwater intrusion. High levels of exposure and sensitivity to risk in the U.S. Caribbean region are compounded by a low level of adaptive capacity, due in part to the high costs of mitigation and adaptation measures relative to the region’s gross domestic product, particularly when compared to continental U.S. coastal areas. The limited geographic and economic scale of Caribbean islands means that disruptions from extreme climate-related events, such as droughts and hurricanes, can devastate large portions of local economies and cause widespread damage to crops, water supplies, infrastructure, and other critical resources and services. The U.S. Caribbean territories of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI) have distinct differences in topography, language, population size, governance, natural and human resources, and economic capacity. However, both are highly dependent on natural and built coastal assets; service-related industries account for more than 60% of the USVI economy. Beaches, affected by sea level rise and erosion, are among the main tourist attractions. In Puerto Rico, critical infrastructure (for example, drinking water pipelines and pump stations, sanitary pipelines and pump stations, wastewater treatment plants, and power plants) is vulnerable to the effects of sea level rise, storm surge , and flooding. In the USVI, infrastructure and historical buildings in the inundation zone for sea level rise include the power plants on both St. Thomas and St. Croix; schools; housing communities; the towns of Charlotte Amalie, Christiansted, and Frederiksted; and pipelines for water and sewage. Climate change will likely result in water shortages due to an overall decrease in annual rainfall, a reduction in ecosystem services, and increased risks for agriculture, human health, wildlife, and socioeconomic development in the U.S. Caribbean. These shortages would result from some locations within the Caribbean experiencing longer dry seasons and shorter, but wetter, wet seasons in the future. Extended dry seasons are projected to increase fire likelihood. Excessive rainfall, coupled with poor construction practices, unpaved roads, and steep slopes, can exacerbate erosion rates and have adverse effects on reservoir capacity, water quality, and nearshore marine habitats. Ocean warming poses a significant threat to the survival of corals and will likely also cause shifts in associated habitats that compose the coral reef ecosystem . Severe, repeated, or prolonged periods of high temperatures leading to extended coral bleaching can result in colony death. Ocean acidification also is likely to diminish the structural integrity of coral habitats. Studies show that major shifts in fisheries distribution and changes to the structure and composition of marine habitats adversely affect food security, shoreline protection, and economies throughout the Caribbean. In Puerto Rico, the annual number of days with temperatures above 90°F has increased over the last four and a half decades. During that period, stroke and cardiovascular disease, which are influenced by such elevated temperatures, became the primary causes of death. Increases in average temperature and in extreme heat events will likely have detrimental effects on agricultural operations throughout the U.S. Caribbean region. Many farmers in the tropics, including the U.S. Caribbean, are considered small-holding, limited resource farmers and often lack the resources and/or capital to adapt to changing conditions. Most Caribbean countries and territories share the need to assess risks, enable actions across scales, and assess changes in ecosystems to inform decision-making on habitat protection under a changing climate. U.S. Caribbean islands have the potential to improve adaptation and mitigation actions by fostering stronger collaborations with Caribbean initiatives on climate change and disaster risk reduction.

Report↗

Wildfire-driven changes in hydrology mobilize arsenic and metals from legacy mine waste

Wildfires burning in watersheds that have been mined and since revegetated pose unique risks to downstream water supplies. A wildfire near Boulder, Colorado that burned a forested watershed recovering from mining disturbance that occurred 80-160 years ago allowed us to 1) assess arsenic and metal contamination in streams draining the burned area for a five-year period after the wildfire and 2) determine the fire-affected hydrologic drivers that convey arsenic and metals to surface water. Most metal concentrations were low in the circumneutral waters draining the burned area. Water and sediment collected from streams downstream of the burned area had elevated arsenic concentrations during and after post-fire storms. Mining-related deposits were the main source of arsenic to streams. An increased proportion of overland flow relative to infiltration after the fire mobilized arsenic- and metal- rich surface deposits and wildfire ash into streams within and downstream of the burned area. The deposition of this sediment into stream channels resulted in the remobilization of arsenic for the five-year post-fire study period. It is also possible that enhanced subsurface flow after the fire increased contact of water with arsenic-bearing minerals exposed in underground mine workings. Other studies have reported that wildfire ash can be an important source of arsenic and metals to surface waters, but wildfire ash was not an important source of arsenic in this study. Predicted increases in frequency, size, and intensity of wildfires in the western U.S., a region with widely dispersed historical mines, suggest that the intersection of legacy mining and post-wildfire hydrologic response poses an increasing risk for water supplies.

Colorado↗