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Additional common milkweed would help Canada meet its share of the trinational eastern migratory monarch butterfly recovery target

The eastern migratory monarch butterfly ( Danaus plexippus ) population has declined by ∼84% between 1993 and 2024. Population recovery in the Midwestern United States is limited by the availability of the monarch's main host plant for egg laying—common milkweed ( Asclepias syriaca ). The extent to which common milkweed availability is limiting in other breeding regions is unknown. Our objective was to determine whether Canada has enough common milkweed to support its share of the trinational eastern migratory monarch population recovery target, given ∼29 stems of common milkweed are needed to contribute one adult monarch into the fall migratory population. To meet this objective, we estimated the number of common milkweed stems in Canada using published common milkweed availability estimates by land cover type. We also estimated the size of the Canadian monarch population if the recovery target was achieved using published estimates of wintering monarch density in Mexico, fall migration survival rates, and the relative proportion of monarchs entering fall migration from Canada. We estimate that Canada currently has 484 million common milkweed stems (range: 111 million–1 billion stems) and increasing this amount by 1.61 times (i.e., by ∼295 million stems), or equivalently, by 61%, would support the recovery target.

Facets↗

Pesticides in stream sediment and aquatic biota: distribution, trends, and governing factors

More than 20 years after the ban of DDT and other organochlorine pesticides, pesticides continue to be detected in air, rain, soil, surface water, bed sediment, and aquatic and terrestrial biota throughout the world. Recent research suggests that low levels of some of these pesticides may have the potential to affect the development, reproduction, and behavior of fish and wildlife, and possibly humans. Pesticides in Stream Sediment and Aquatic Biota: Distribution, Trends, and Governing Factors assesses the occurrence and behavior of pesticides in bed sediment and aquatic biota-the two major compartments of the hydrologic system where organochlorine pesticides are most likely to accumulate. This book collects, for the first time, results from several hundred monitoring studies and field experiments, ranging in scope from individual sites to the entire nation. Comprehensive tables provide concise summaries of study locations, pesticides analyzed, and study outcomes. Comprehensive and extensively illustrated, Pesticides in Stream Sediment and Aquatic Biota: Distribution, Trends, and Governing Factors evaluates the sources, environmental fate, geographic distribution, and long-term trends of pesticides in bed sediment and aquatic biota. The book focuses on organochlorine pesticides, but also assesses the potential for currently used pesticides to be found in bed sediment and aquatic biota. Topics covered in depth include the effect of land use on pesticide occurrence, mechanisms of pesticide uptake and accumulation by aquatic biota, and the environmental significance of observed levels of pesticides in stream sediment and aquatic biota.

Book↗

Land-cover classes to characterize the unsaturated zone in North Carolina

This web site contains the Federal Geographic Data Committee-compliant metadata (documentation) for digital data produced for the North Carolina, Department of Environment and Natural Resources, Public Water Supply Section, Source Water Assessment Program. The metadata are for 11 individual Geographic Information System data sets. An overlay and indexing method was used with the data to derive a rating for unsaturated zone and watershed characteristics for use by the State of North Carolina in assessing more than 11,000 public water-supply wells and approximately 245 public surface-water intakes for susceptibility to contamination. For ground-water supplies, the digital data sets used in the assessment included unsaturated zone rating, vertical series hydraulic conductance, land-surface slope, and land cover. For assessment of public surface-water intakes, the data sets included watershed characteristics rating, average annual precipitation, land-surface slope, land cover, and ground-water contribution. Documentation for the land-use data set applies to both the unsaturated zone and watershed characteristics ratings. Documentation for the estimated depth-to-water map used in the calculation of the vertical series hydraulic conductance also is included.

North Carolina↗

GAP Analysis Bulletin Number 15

The Mission of the Gap Analysis Project (GAP) <http://gapanalysis.nbii.gov> is to promote conservation by providing broad geographic information on biological diversity to resource managers, planners, and policy makers who can use the information to make informed decisions. As part of the National Biological Information Infrastructure (NBII) <http://www.nbii.gov>?a collaborative program to provide increased access to data and information on the nation?s biological resources--GAP data and analytical tools have been used in hundreds of applications: from basic research to comprehensive state wildlife plans; from educational projects in schools to ecoregional assessments of biodiversity. The challenge: keeping common species common means protecting them BEFORE they become threatened. To do this on a state or regional basis requires key information such as land cover descriptions, predicted distribution maps for native animals, and an assessment of the level of protection currently given to those plants and animals. GAP works cooperatively with Federal, state, and local natural resource professionals and academics to provide this kind of information. GAP activities focus on the creation of state and regional databases and maps that depict patterns of land management, land cover, and biodiversity. These data can be used to identify ?gaps? in conservation--instances where an animal or plant community is not adequately represented on the existing network of conservation lands. GAP is administered through the U.S. Geological Survey. Through building partnerships among disparate groups, GAP hopes to foster the kind of collaboration that is needed to address conservation issues on a broad scale. For more information, contact: John Mosesso National GAP Director 703-648-4079 Kevin Gergely National GAP Operations Manager 208-885-3565

GAP Bulletin↗

Gap Analysis -A geographic approach to planning for biological diversity

The Mission of the Gap Analysis Project (GAP) is to promote conservation by providing broad geographic information on biological diversity to resource managers, planners, and policy makers who can use the information to make informed decisions. As part of the National Biological Information Infrastructure (NBII) —a collaborative program to provide increased access to data and information on the nation’s biological resources--GAP data and analytical tools have been used in hundreds of applications: from basic research to comprehensive state wildlife plans; from educational projects in schools to ecoregional assessments of biodiversity. The challenge: keeping common species common means protecting them BEFORE they become threatened. To do this on a state or regional basis requires key information such as land cover descriptions, predicted distribution maps for native animals, and an assessment of the level of protection currently given to those plants and animals. GAP works cooperatively with Federal, state, and local natural resource professionals and academics to provide this kind of information. GAP activities focus on the creation of state and regional databases and maps that depict patterns of land management, land cover, and biodiversity. These data can be used to identify “gaps” in conservation--instances where an animal or plant community is not adequately represented on the existing network of conservation lands. GAP is administered through the U.S. Geological Survey. Through building partnerships among disparate groups, GAP hopes to foster the kind of collaboration that is needed to address conservation issues on a broad scale.

GAP Bulletin↗

Riparian plant evapotranspiration and consumptive use for selected areas of the Little Colorado River watershed on the Navajo Nation

Estimates of riparian vegetation water use are important for hydromorphological assessment, partitioning within human and natural environments, and informing environmental policy decisions. The objectives of this study were to calculate the actual evapotranspiration (ETa) (mm/day and mm/year) and derive riparian vegetation annual consumptive use (CU) in acre-feet (AF) for select riparian areas of the Little Colorado River watershed within the Navajo Nation, in northeastern Arizona, USA. This was accomplished by first estimating the riparian land cover area for trees and shrubs using a 2019 summer scene from National Agricultural Imagery Program (NAIP) (1 m resolution), and then fusing the riparian delineation with Landsat-8 OLI (30-m) to estimate ETa for 2014–2020. We used indirect remote sensing methods based on gridded weather data, Daymet (1 km) and PRISM (4 km), and Landsat measurements of vegetation activity using the two-band Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI2). Estimates of potential ET were calculated using Blaney-Criddle. Riparian ETa was quantified using the Nagler ET(EVI2) approach. Using both vector and raster estimates of tree, shrub, and total riparian area, we produced the first CU measurements for this region. Our best estimate of annual CU is 36,983 AF with a range between 31,648–41,585 AF and refines earlier projections of 25,387–46,397 AF.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah↗

Removing rural roads from the National Land Cover Database to create improved urban maps for the United States, 1992-2011

Quantifying change in urban land provides important information to create empirical models examining the effects of human land use. Maps of developed land from the National Land Cover Database ( NLCD ) of the conterminous United States include rural roads in the developed land class and therefore overestimate the amount of urban land. To better map the urban class and understand how urban lands change over time, we removed rural roads and small patches of rural development from the NLCD developed class and created four wall-to-wall maps (1992, 2001, 2006, and 2011) of urban land. Removing rural roads from the NLCD developed class involved a multi-step filtering process, data fusion using geospatial road and developed land data, and manual editing. Reference data classified as urban or not urban from a stratified random sample was used to assess the accuracy of the 2001 and 2006 urban and NLCD maps. The newly created urban maps had higher overall accuracy (98.7 percent) than the NLCD maps (96.2 percent). More importantly, the urban maps resulted in lower commission error of the urban class (23 percent versus 57 percent for the NLCD in 2006) with the trade-off of slightly inflated omission error (20 percent for the urban map, 16 percent for NLCD in 2006). The removal of approximately 230,000 km 2 of rural roads from the NLCD developed class resulted in maps that better characterize the urban footprint. These urban maps are more suited to modeling applications and policy decisions that rely on quantitative and spatially explicit information regarding urban lands.

Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing↗

The influence of river regulation and land use on floodplain forest regeneration in the semi-arid upper Colorado River Basin, USA

Flow regulation effects on floodplain forests in the semi-arid western United States are moderately well understood, whereas effects associated with changes in floodplain land use are poorly documented. We mapped land cover patterns from recent aerial photos and applied a classification scheme to mainstem alluvial floodplains in 10 subjectively selected 4th order hydrologic units (subbasins) in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) in order to document land use patterns (floodplain development) and assess their effects on Fremont cottonwood forest (CF) regeneration. Three of the mainstem rivers were unregulated, five were moderately regulated and two were highly regulated. We classified polygons as Undeveloped (with two categories, including CF) and Developed (with five categories). We ground-truthed 501 randomly selected polygons (4-28% of the floodplain area in each subbasin) to verify classification accuracy and to search for cottonwood regeneration, defined as stands established since regulation began or 1950, whichever is most recent. From 40% to 95% of the floodplain area remained undeveloped, but only 19-70% of the floodplain area was classified as forest. Regeneration occupied a mean of 5% (range 1-17%) of the floodplain. The likelihood of the presence of regeneration in a polygon was reduced 65% by development and independently in a complex manner by flow regulation. Our analyses indicate that floodplain forests may be in jeopardy on both regulated and unregulated rivers and that information on historical forest extent is needed to better understand their current status in the UCRB. Conservation efforts need to be coordinated at a regional level and address the potentially adverse affects of both flow regulation and floodplain development.

River Research and Applications↗

Landscape-scale greater prairie-chicken–habitat relations and the Conservation Reserve Program

Both the abundance of greater prairie-chickens ( Tympanuchus cupido pinnatus ) and the area of grassland enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) in northwestern Minnesota, USA, have recently declined. Although wildlife conservation is a stated objective of the CRP, the impact of the CRP on greater prairie-chicken populations has not been quantified. To address that information need, we evaluated the association between greater-prairie chicken lek density (leks/km 2 ), the number of males at leks (males/lek), and CRP enrollments in the context of landscape structure and composition in northwestern Minnesota. Using data from standardized prairie-chicken surveys and land cover in 17 41-km 2 survey blocks during 2004–2016, we used a mixed-effect model and a layered approach in an information-theoretic framework at multiple spatial scales to identify covariates related to prairie-chicken abundance. At the landscape scale, lek density was best explained by the amount of CRP grassland and wetland, grassland and wetland with long-term conservation goals (state, federal, and The Nature Conservancy owned); other wetlands managed with variable or no continuity in conservation goals; the contiguity of grasslands; and the number of patches of grasslands and wetlands in each survey block each year. Increasing the amount of CRP grassland in 41-km 2 survey blocks by 1 km 2 (2.4%) resulted in a corresponding increase of 6% in lek density. At the lek scale, the number of males per lek was best explained by the amount of CRP grassland and other grassland, CRP wetland and other wetland, forests, developed areas, shrubland, and the contiguity of CRP grassland. Increasing the amount of CRP grassland in the 2-km breeding-cycle habitat radius around a lek by 25% (3 km 2 ) corresponded to a 5% increase in males per lek. Our results suggest that both increasing the quantity of grassland CRP and wetland CRP enrollments and aggregating CRP grassland enrollments may increase greater prairie-chicken abundance.

Minnesota↗

Development of a 2001 National Land Cover Database for the United States

Multi-Resolution Land Characterization 2001 (MRLC 2001) is a second-generation Federal consortium designed to create an updated pool of nation-wide Landsat 5 and 7 imagery and derive a second-generation National Land Cover Database (NLCD 2001). The objectives of this multi-layer, multi-source database are two fold: first, to provide consistent land cover for all 50 States, and second, to provide a data framework which allows flexibility in developing and applying each independent data component to a wide variety of other applications. Components in the database include the following: (1) normalized imagery for three time periods per path/row, (2) ancillary data, including a 30 m Digital Elevation Model (DEM) derived into slope, aspect and slope position, (3) perpixel estimates of percent imperviousness and percent tree canopy, (4) 29 classes of land cover data derived from the imagery, ancillary data, and derivatives, (5) classification rules, confidence estimates, and metadata from the land cover classification. This database is now being developed using a Mapping Zone approach, with 66 Zones in the continental United States and 23 Zones in Alaska. Results from three initial mapping Zones show single-pixel land cover accuracies ranging from 73 to 77 percent, imperviousness accuracies ranging from 83 to 91 percent, tree canopy accuracies ranging from 78 to 93 percent, and an estimated 50 percent increase in mapping efficiency over previous methods. The database has now entered the production phase and is being created using extensive partnering in the Federal government with planned completion by 2006.

Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing↗

Ecological site-based assessments of wind and water erosion: informing accelerated soil erosion management in rangelands

Accelerated soil erosion occurs when anthropogenic processes modify soil, vegetation or climatic conditions causing erosion rates at a location to exceed their natural variability. Identifying where and when accelerated erosion occurs is a critical first step toward its effective management. Here we explore how erosion assessments structured in the context of ecological sites (a land classification based on soils, landscape setting and ecological potential) and their vegetation states (plant assemblages that may change due to management) can inform systems for reducing accelerated soil erosion in rangelands. We evaluated aeolian horizontal sediment flux and fluvial sediment erosion rates for five ecological sites in southern New Mexico, USA, using monitoring data and rangeland-specific wind and water erosion models. Across the ecological sites, plots in shrub-encroached and shrub-dominated vegetation states were consistently susceptible to aeolian sediment flux and fluvial sediment erosion. Both processes were found to be highly variable for grassland and grass-succulent states across the ecological sites at the plot scale (0.25 Ha). We identify vegetation thresholds that define cover levels below which rapid (exponential) increases in aeolian sediment flux and fluvial sediment erosion occur across the ecological sites and vegetation states. Aeolian sediment flux and fluvial erosion in the study area can be effectively controlled when bare ground cover is <20% of a site or the cover of canopy interspaces >100 cm in length is less than ~35%. Land use and management activities that alter cover levels such that they cross thresholds, and/or drive vegetation state changes, may increase the susceptibility of areas to erosion. Land use impacts that are constrained within the range of natural variability should not result in accelerated soil erosion. Evaluating land condition against the erosion thresholds identified here will enable identification of areas susceptible to accelerated soil erosion and the development of practical management solutions.

New Mexico↗

Predicting broad-scale occurrences of vertebrates in patchy landscapes

Spatially explicit landscape-scale models that predict species distributions, where patches of habitat are shown as having potential to be occupied or unoccupied, are increasingly common. To successfully use such data, one should understand how these predicted distributions are created and how their relative accuracies are assessed. Geographic ranges, defined upon observations (e.g., atlases), literature review, and expert review, are a primary data layer. A map of land cover is created, often from interpretation of satellite imagery or other remotely-sensed data. Species/habitat associations are defined based upon a literature review and expert review, describing associations for habitats derived from the cover map. Included as ancillary associations are how species relate to physical features, where appropriate, such as elevation and hydrography. The three layers of information (range, land cover, and associations) are merged, often using raster-based algebraic statements that exclude unused habitats or patches outside the range of a species. The accuracy of predictions for a suite of species is typically assessed with surveys by comparing the species predicted to occur in an area to the species observed. Omission (i.e., present in species lists but not predicted) and commission (i.e., predicted but not present in lists) errors are reported. Errors may be due to many sources. For example, ranges of species change, cover types may be misidentified, species/habitat associations may be incorrect or change, or species may be rare and unlikely to be seen in surveys and judged in-error even though the species may be present. An example is given of an appropriate use of broad-scale species predicted distributions, in which patterns and threats to Maine terrestrial vertebrate diversity are summarized.

Landscape Ecology↗

Implementation strategy for production of National Land-Cover Data (NLCD) from the Landsat 7 Thematic Mapper satellite

As environmental programs within and outside the federal government continue to move away from point-based studies to larger and larger spatial (not cartographic) scale, the need for land-cover and other geographic data have become ineluctable. The national land-cover mapping project of MRLC marks the first consistently classified conterminous land-cover data set, effectively replacing USGS' Land Use Data Analysis (LUDA) system derived from high altitidue aerial photography acquired in the early 1970's. Because of the continually changing nature of the earth's surface due to anthropogenic activities and other factors, a single point-in-time land-cover product is insufficient for many applications. Production of a second point-in-time land-cover product is proposed as a database. That proposed database design includes: (1) second, independently classified land-cover data set derived from Landsat 7 Thematic Mapper data; (2) the land-cover product being produced under the current effort, (3) selected spectral-based change estimates (e.g., temporal NDVI), (4) thirty-meter DEMS; and (5) selected landscape metrics. Development of the database for the conterminous United States will start after evaluation of the prototype.

Technical Report↗

A spatially referenced regression model (SPARROW) for suspended sediment in streams of the Conterminous U.S.

Suspended sediment has long been recognized as an important contaminant affecting water resources. Besides its direct role in determining water clarity, bridge scour and reservoir storage, sediment serves as a vehicle for the transport of many binding contaminants, including nutrients, trace metals, semi-volatile organic compounds, a nd numerous pesticides (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2000a). Recent efforts to addr ess water-quality concerns through the Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) process have iden tified sediment as the single most prevalent cause of impairment in the Nation’s streams a nd rivers (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2000b). Moreover, sediment has been identified as a medium for the tran sport and sequestration of organic carbon, playing a potentia lly important role in understa nding sources and sinks in the global carbon budget (Stallard, 1998). A comprehensive understanding of sediment fate a nd transport is considered essential to the design and implementation of effective plans for sediment management (Osterkamp and others, 1998, U.S. General Accounting Office, 1990). An exte nsive literature addr essing the problem of quantifying sediment transport has produced a nu mber of methods for estimating its flux (see Cohn, 1995, and Robertson and Roerish, 1999, for us eful surveys). The accuracy of these methods is compromised by uncertainty in the concentration measurements and by the highly episodic nature of sediment movement, particul arly when the methods are applied to smaller basins. However, for annual or decadal flux es timates, the methods are generally reliable if calibrated with extended periods of data (Robertson and Roerish, 1999). A substantial literature also supports the Universal Soil Loss Equation (U SLE) (Soil Conservation Service, 1983), an engineering method for estimating sheet and rill erosion, although the empirical credentials of the USLE have recently been questioned (Tri mble and Crosson, 2000). Conversely, relatively little direct evidence is available concerning the fate of sediment. The common practice of quantifying sediment fate with a sediment deliv ery ratio, estimated from a simple empirical relation with upstream basin area, does not artic ulate the relative importance of individual storage sites within a basin (Wolman, 1977). Rates of sediment deposition in reservoirs and flood plains can be determined from empirical measurement s , but only a limited number of sites have been monitored, and net rates of deposition or loss from other potential sinks and sources is largely unknown (Stallard, 1998). In particular, little is known about how much sediment loss from fields ultimately makes its way to stream channels, and how much sediment is subsequently stored in or lost from th e streambed (Meade and Parker, 1985, Trimble and Crosson, 2000). This paper reports on recent progress made to a ddress empirically the question of sediment fate and transport on a national scale. The model pres ented here is based on the SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attr ibutes (SPARROW) methodology, fi rst used to estimate the distribution of nutrients in str eams and rivers of the United Stat es, and subsequently shown to describe land and stream processes affecting the delivery of nutrients (Smith and others, 1997, Alexander and others, 2000, Preston and Brakeb ill, 1999). The model makes use of numerous spatial datasets, available at the national level, to explain long-term sediment water-quality conditions in major streams and rivers throughou t the United States. Sediment sources are identified using sediment erosion rates from the National Resources I nventory (NRI) (Natural Resources Conservation Service, 2000) and apportioned over the landscape according to 30- meter resolution land-use information from th e National Land Cover Data set (NLCD) (U.S. Geological Survey, 2000a). More than 76,000 reservoirs from the National Inventory of Dams (NID) (U.S. Army Corps of Engin eers, 1996) are identified as pot ential sediment sinks. Other, non-anthropogenic sources and sinks are identified using soil in formation from the State Soil Survey Geographic (STATSGO) data base (Schwarz and Alexander, 1995) and spatial coverages representing surficial rock t ype and vegetative cover. The SPA RROW model empirically relates these diverse spatial datasets to estimates of long-term, mean annual sediment flux computed from concentration and flow measurements co llected over the period 1985 -95 from more than 400 monitoring stations maintained by the Na tional Stream Quality Accounting Network (Alexander and others, 1998), the National Wa ter Quality Assessment Program, and U.S. Geological Survey District offices (Turcios and Gray, in press). Th e calibrated model is used to estimate sediment flux for over 60,000 stream segments included in the River Reach File 1 (RF1) stream network (Alexander and others, 1999). SPARROW uses statis tical methods to calibrate a simple, structural model of riverine water quality, one that imposes mass ba lance in accounting for changes in contaminant flux. As applied here, the mass-balance approach facilitates the interpretation of model results in terms of physical processes affecting sediment transport, and makes possible the estimation of various rates of sediment generation and loss associated with stream channels and features of the landscape. The statistical approach provides a basi s for assessing the error of these inferred rates and of the error in extrapolated estimates of sediment flux made for streams in the RF1 network. An important implication of the holistic modeling approach adopted in this analysis is that estimates of sediment production and loss ar e based on, and therefore consistent with, measurements of in-stream flux. Other ancillary information, such as direct measurements of long-term sediment storage and release from rese rvoirs (Steffen, 1996), is incorporated into the analysis by specifying additional equations expl aining these ancillary variables. The imposition of cross-equation constraints affords this info rmation a statistically consistent weight in explaining in-stream sediment flux. Thus, the me thodology described here represents a general framework for synthesizing a wide spectrum of available information relevant to the understanding of sediment fate and transport.

Conterminous United States↗

Using ALOS-2 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) and interferometric SAR to detect landslides on the mountainous island of Pohnpei, Federated States of Micronesia

This study was undertaken by the U.S. Geological Survey to assess the detectability of landslides in the densely forested and mountainous island of Pohnpei in the Federated States of Micronesia. The study used existing field-observed land-cover changes and landslides visible on Google Earth (GE) images. A limited number of ALOS-2 PALSAR-2 L-band synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images were collected on two adjacent orbit paths before and after an intense rainfall event that affected Pohnpei in mid-March 2018. Similar sets of images were collected in 2019 and 2020. Low coherence throughout the island interior eliminated use of phase-change products, and change analysis identified no landslide features as having formed in 2019 or 2020. The assessment of red-green-blue image composites and application of the log-ratio method to the 2018 ground-range SAR images identified 5 of the 11 landslides observed on the GE images. Visual comparisons of the co-event and post-event coherence image products detected 9 of the 11 landslides observed on the GE images. Combined, the ground-based SAR and interferometric SAR coherence change detections overcame high temporal and spatial decorrelations, identified all but one landslide visible in the GE comparison, and included substantial redundancy. The robustness of the landslide detection indicates that an increased collection frequency of L-band images could support systematic monitoring of land-cover change on Pohnpei at the scale reported in this study.

Island of Pohnpei↗

Summary of hydrologic modeling for the Delaware River Basin using the Water Availability Tool for Environmental Resources (WATER)

The Water Availability Tool for Environmental Resources (WATER) is a decision support system for the nontidal part of the Delaware River Basin that provides a consistent and objective method of simulating streamflow under historical, forecasted, and managed conditions. In order to quantify the uncertainty associated with these simulations, however, streamflow and the associated hydroclimatic variables of potential evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, and snow accumulation and snowmelt must be simulated and compared to long-term, daily observations from sites. This report details model development and optimization, statistical evaluation of simulations for 57 basins ranging from 2 to 930 km 2 and 11.0 to 99.5 percent forested cover, and how this statistical evaluation of daily streamflow relates to simulating environmental changes and management decisions that are best examined at monthly time steps normalized over multiple decades. The decision support system provides a database of historical spatial and climatic data for simulating streamflow for 2001&ndash;11, in addition to land-cover and general circulation model forecasts that focus on 2030 and 2060. WATER integrates geospatial sampling of landscape characteristics, including topographic and soil properties, with a regionally calibrated hillslope-hydrology model, an impervious-surface model, and hydroclimatic models that were parameterized by using three hydrologic response units: forested, agricultural, and developed land cover. This integration enables the regional hydrologic modeling approach used in WATER without requiring site-specific optimization or those stationary conditions inferred when using a statistical model.

Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylv↗

Precipitation-driven flood-inundation mapping of the Little Blue River at Grandview, Missouri

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the City of Grandview, Missouri, assessed flooding of the Little Blue River at Grandview resulting from varying precipitation magnitudes and durations and expected land-cover changes. The precipitation scenarios were used to develop a library of flood-inundation maps that included a 3.5-mile reach of the Little Blue River and tributaries within and adjacent to the city. A hydrologic model of the upper Little Blue River Basin and a hydraulic model of a selected study reach of the Little Blue River and tributaries were constructed to assess streamflow magnitudes associated with simulated precipitation amounts and the resulting flood-inundation conditions. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC–HMS; version 4.4.1) was used to simulate the amount of streamflow produced from a range of rain events. The Hydrologic Engineering Center-River Analysis System (HEC–RAS; version 5.0.7) was then used to construct a steady-state hydraulic model to map resulting areas of flood inundation. Both models were calibrated to the May 28, 2020, high-flow event that produced a peak streamflow approximating a 10-percent annual exceedance probability (10-year flood-frequency recurrence interval) at the Little Blue River at Grandview streamgage (USGS station 06893750). The calibrated HEC–HMS model was used to simulate streamflows from design rainfall events of 1- to 8-hour durations and ranging from a 100- to 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability. Flood-inundation maps were produced for USGS streamflow stages of 17.0 feet (ft), or near bankfull, to 23.0 ft, or a stage exceeding the 0.2-percent annual exceedance interval flood, using the HEC–RAS model. The consequence of each precipitation duration-frequency value was represented by a 1-ft increment inundation map based on the generated peak streamflow from that rainfall event and the corresponding stage at the reference USGS streamgage. Four scenarios were developed with the HEC–HMS hydrologic model: (1) current (2016) land cover, normal antecedent soil-moisture conditions; (2) current land cover, wet antecedent soil-moisture conditions; (3) future land cover, normal antecedent soil-moisture conditions; and (4) future land cover, wet antecedent soil-moisture conditions. The future land-cover condition was estimated based on anticipated development in the basin. All precipitation scenarios were input into each of the four land-cover antecedent moisture conditions and then assigned to a resulting flood-inundation map based on the generated peak flow and corresponding stage at the reference streamgage.

Missouri↗

Assimilation of snow covered area information into hydrologic and land-surface models

This paper describes a data assimilation method that uses observations of snow covered area (SCA) to update hydrologic model states in a mountainous catchment in Colorado. The assimilation method uses SCA information as part of an ensemble Kalman filter to alter the sub-basin distribution of snow as well as the basin water balance. This method permits an optimal combination of model simulations and observations, as well as propagation of information across model states. Sensitivity experiments are conducted with a fairly simple snowpack/water-balance model to evaluate effects of the data assimilation scheme on simulations of streamflow. The assimilation of SCA information results in minor improvements in the accuracy of streamflow simulations near the end of the snowmelt season. The small effect from SCA assimilation is initially surprising. It can be explained both because a substantial portion of snowmelts before any bare ground is exposed, and because the transition from 100% to 0% snow coverage occurs fairly quickly. Both of these factors are basin-dependent. Satellite SCA information is expected to be most useful in basins where snow cover is ephemeral. The data assimilation strategy presented in this study improved the accuracy of the streamflow simulation, indicating that SCA is a useful source of independent information that can be used as part of an integrated data assimilation strategy. ?? 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Advances in Water Resources↗