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USGS2025

Accurate simulation of flow through dipping aquifers with MODFLOW 6 using enhanced cell connectivity

In simulations of groundwater flow through dipping aquifers, layers of model cells are often “deformed” to follow the top and bottom elevations of the aquifers. When this approach is used in MODFLOW, adjacent cells within the same model layer are vertically offset from one another, and the standard conductance-based (two-point) formulation for flow between cells does not rigorously account for these offsets. The XT3D multi-point flow formulation in MODFLOW 6 is designed to account for geometric irregularities in the grid, including vertical offsets, and to provide accurate results for both isotropic and anisotropic groundwater flow. A recent study evaluated the performance of the standard formulation and XT3D using a simple, synthetic benchmark model of a steeply dipping aquifer. Although XT3D generally improved the accuracy of flow simulations relative to the standard formulation as expected, neither formulation produced accurate flows in cases that involved large vertical offsets. In this paper, we explain that the inability of XT3D to produce accurate flows in the steeply dipping aquifer benchmark was not due to an inherent limitation of the flow formulation, but rather to the limited cell connectivity inherent in the most commonly used discretization packages in MODFLOW 6. Furthermore, we demonstrate that XT3D is able to produce the expected accuracy when adequate cell connectivity is introduced using MODFLOW's unstructured grid type and the aquifer is discretized vertically using at least two model layers.

Groundwater↗
USGS2025

Detecting hidden sedimentary geothermal systems in the Upper Colorado River Basin

Geothermal resources exist in sedimentary rock where circulation of water for efficient extraction or storage of heat is possible. Except in rare instances where hot water is expressed at the land surface, sedimentary geothermal resources are hidden, so the identification of these systems is optimally accomplished using predictive subsurface modeling. An integrated approach using detailed paleogeographic interpretations, subsurface geologic mapping, and numerical modeling has produced regional geologic and temperature models for the Upper Colorado River Basin, a large watershed in central North America that contains many sedimentary basins. These models identify areas of hidden sedimentary geothermal resource potential in low temperature (<90°C), moderate temperature (90–150°C), and high temperature (>150°C) fairways across the study area. These models incorporate maps of key horizons in outcrop and the subsurface to create a robust structural framework that can be used to target favorable geology for natural or engineered permeability. This framework is populated with lithologies derived from detailed palaeogeographical maps and over 40,000 bottom hole temperature (BHT) values were used to create a calibrated three-dimensional (3D) temperature model across the region. The resulting maps serve as a regional sedimentary geothermal play fairway screening tool for evaluating different grades of sedimentary geothermal resources and for identifying areas of interest where more detailed, prospect-scale studies can be undertaken.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming↗
USGS2026

From model to action: Identifying the gaps in coastal marsh models for decision making

Coastal salt marsh modeling projects are designed to answer questions about where salt marshes may migrate, how they can migrate, and how they will be impacted by changing water levels. While this information is vital for climate-resilient marsh conservation, translating these findings into actionable results remains a challenge. The authors examined the actionability of marsh modeling efforts in the United States by analyzing data collected from semi-structured interviews of marsh model users ( n = 24) across two ongoing projects along the U.S. East Coast and the Gulf of America (Gulf of Mexico). By qualitatively analyzing the interview data, the authors found that the tasks of practitioners who use coastal marsh model outputs fall into three major themes: (1) marsh restoration, (2) planning with uncertainty, and (3) conserving habitat for marsh-reliant species. For each of these themes, the authors identify unmet needs, including high spatial resolution information for local planning, accessible descriptions of uncertainty to increase user confidence, and the incorporation of human dimensions data (e.g., human alterations to the landscape such as impoundments and culverts) for a comprehensive understanding of the coastal salt marsh. Marsh modeling projects should strategize how to fulfil these unmet user needs so that marsh modeling outputs can better support decisions related to marsh conservation and restoration.

Gulf of America, United States East Coast↗
USGS2024

Representation of surface-water flows using Gradient-Related Discharge in an Everglades Network

The Everglades Depth Estimation Network interpolates water-level gage data to produce daily water-level elevations for the Everglades in south Florida. These elevations were used to estimate flow vectors (gradients and directions) and volumetric flow rates using the Gradient-Related Discharge in an Everglades Network (GARDEN) application developed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Flow rates in both the east-west and north-south directions were computed on a 400-meter square grid using modified parameters in the Manning’s equation. The frictional resistance parameter in the Manning’s equation was calibrated to measured flow rates at coastal creeks fed by Everglades Depth Estimation Network boundary flows. Levees and other features that act as barriers to flow were defined as “no-flow” grid cells where vectors were set to zero. The flow volume magnitudes were calibrated with 2020 daily values of coastal river flows, and verification was performed using 2021 data. Within a given day, the measured coastal river flows fluctuate more than the GARDEN boundary flows because of tidal and wind forcings. Because the GARDEN boundary flows were the upstream water source for the coastal rivers, calibration focused on matching average daily flow volumes rather than daily fluctuations. The Pearson’s correlation coefficient is 0.766 for the 2020 calibration period and 0.566 for the 2021 verification period. Applying GARDEN to periods with hydraulic-control-structure releases allows the propagation of structure flows to be seen in the daily flow-vector maps along with the multiday response of flows farther downgradient. Flow vectors may be overestimated near control structures because of difficulties in resolving the water gradient downstream from the structure. Flow vectors farther from the structure are more accurate than those near the structure.

Florida↗
USGS2026

Ten new insights in climate science 2025

Interdisciplinary understanding is vital for delivering sound climate policy advice. However, navigating the ever-growing and increasingly diverse scholarly literature on climate change is challenging for any individual researcher. This annual synthesis highlights and explains recent advances across a variety of fields of climate change research. This year, the 10 insights focus on: (1) the record-warmth of 2023/2024 and the elevated Earth energy imbalance; (2) acceleration of ocean warming and intensifying marine heatwaves; (3) northern land carbon sinks under strain; (4) reinforcing feedback between biodiversity loss and climate change; (5) accelerated depletion of groundwater; (6) global dengue incidence; (7) global income losses and labour productivity declines; (8) strategic scaling of CDR; (9) integrity challenges in carbon credit markets and emerging responses; and (10) effective policy mixes for emissions reductions. The insights have been written to be accessible to researchers from different fields, serving as entry-points to specific topics, as well as providing an overview of the evolving landscape of climate change research. In the final section, the insights are used to develop overarching policy-relevant messages. This paper provides the basis for a science-policy report that was shared with all Party delegations ahead of COP30 in Belém, Brazil.

Global Sustainability↗
USGS2025

Groundwater surveillance of swine pathogens from private wells supplying swine farms in Iowa

Biosecurity practices are essential for maintaining pig health and productivity. Despite these measures, pathogen spread still occurs. Water is one of the largest daily inputs on swine farms by volume and is not routinely tested or disinfected before it is consumed by the animals [1-3], making it a poorly understood biosecurity risk. Groundwater from privately-owned wells is a common water source for swine farms. Pathogens in the landscape, such as bacteria, viruses, and protozoa, can reach groundwater more rapidly through soil macropores, maintaining viability and facilitating transmission of pathogens into aquifers [3-13].

Iowa↗
USGS2024

Rainfall intensification amplifies exposure of American Southwest to conditions that trigger postfire debris flows

Short-duration, high-intensity rainfall can initiate deadly and destructive debris flows after wildfire. Methods to estimate the conditions that can trigger debris flows exist and guidance to determine how often those thresholds will be exceeded under the present climate are available. However, the limited spatiotemporal resolution of climate models has hampered efforts to characterize how rainfall intensification driven by global warming may affect debris-flow hazards. We use novel, dynamically downscaled (3.75-km), convection-permitting simulations of short-duration (15-min) rainfall to evaluate threshold exceedance for late 21st-century climate scenarios in the American Southwest. We observe significant increases in the frequency and magnitude of exceedances for regions dominated by cool- and warm-season rainfall. We also observe an increased frequency of exceedance in regions where postfire debris flows have not been documented, and communities are unaccustomed to the hazard. Our findings can inform planning efforts to increase resiliency to debris flows under a changing climate.

Arizona, California, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah↗
USGS2024

Examining 22 years of ambient seismic wavefield at Mount St. Helens

An increase in seismic activity precedes most volcanic eruptions. Whereas event-based forecasting approaches have been successful, some eruptions remain unanticipated, resulting in casualties and damage. Our study leverages the recent advancements in ambient field seismology. We explore features extracted from continuous ambient fields using traditional methods, for example, peak ground velocity, peak ground acceleration, root mean square, root median square, real-time seismic amplitude measurement, and novel methods (displacement seismic amplitude ratio and spectral width). In addition, we explore unsupervised learning of higher order wavelet features using scattering networks. We find that combining all the methods was necessary to disentangle the effects of seismic sources from structural changes at Mount St. Helens. Although the ambient wavefield-based approach does not yield additional or more significant precursory signals than event-based methods at Mount St. Helens, our study demonstrates that the ambient wavefield provides supplementary information, mainly about structural changes and complements traditional methods. The ambient seismic wavefield offers additional insights into long-lasting processes. We find enhanced wave attenuation correlating with geochemical measurements. We interpret this as ongoing structural changes, such as dome growth or the evolution of the volcanic conduit system. On annual and decadal timescales, we interpret seasonal seismic attenuation in the shallow subsurface as groundwater fluctuations, corroborated by observations at the nearby Spirit Lake level. This multimethod approach at Mount St. Helens sheds light on a volcanic system’s underlying dynamics and structure.

Washington↗
USGS2026

Late Miocene Colorado River arrival in the Bidahochi basin supports spillover origin of Grand Canyon

The timing and mechanism of the integration of the Colorado River and incision of the Grand Canyon remain among geology’s enduring controversies. A key question is the configuration of the upper Colorado River watershed between 11 and 6 million years ago. In this study, we present new evidence from zircon uranium-lead geochronology for the arrival of distinctive Colorado–Green River sediment in the Bidahochi basin by 6.6 million years ago derived from the Browns Park Formation. This is coeval with an order-of-magnitude increase in depositional rate, an increase in carbonate strontium isotope ( 87 Sr/ 86 Sr) ratios, the appearance of large fish species characteristic of fast-flowing waters, and other sedimentological changes. This evidence is consistent with the Colorado River supplying water and sediment to the Bidahochi basin before spillover integration of the river through the Grand Canyon.

Arizona, Nevada, Utah↗
USGS2026

A temporal look at the influence of topographic amplification on earthquake-triggered landslides in 3D seismic simulations

Earthquakes are a primary trigger for landslides, often leading to catastrophic consequences. While numerous studies have explored the spatial distribution of earthquake-triggered landslides, understanding the interaction between seismic waves and topography remains a critical challenge. Topographic irregularities can cause seismic wave amplification, altering ground shaking, and can trigger landslides that are challenging for predictive models to anticipate. This study investigates the spatial and temporal evolution of topographically amplified landslides, focusing on coseismic landslides triggered by the Mw 7.5 mainshock of the 2018 Papua New Guinea earthquake and post-seismic landslides associated with its four aftershocks, each exceeding Mw 6.0. We employ low-frequency, three-dimensional numerical ground shaking simulations and data-driven multivariate analyses to examine how landslides evolved from the coseismic to post-seismic periods. Our findings reveal a spatial shift in landslide distribution, in which the mainshock triggered slope failures predominantly on steep hillslopes, and the aftershocks triggered landslides on gentler slopes, often near geologic boundaries. We attribute this transition partly to the earthquake legacy effect of the mainshock, where the mainshock caused weakening of these hillslopes, making them more prone to failure when aftershocks occur. Additionally, the concentration of failures along geologic contacts in the post-seismic phase suggests that site amplification, stemming from contrasts in subsurface materials, exerts a key influence on landslide occurrence. Although not explicitly captured in our current numerical simulations, this mechanism warrants further investigation for more accurate hazard modeling.

JGR Solid Earth↗
USGS2025

Carbonatite-hosted residual REE deposits

Rare earth elements (REEs) occur in magmatic rocks but are especially enriched in carbonatite and alkaline silicates. If these rocks are chemically weathered, then the REEs may become further enriched within the regolith developed from these rocks. Primary magmatic REE minerals, as well as the various carbonate minerals and apatite, provide the REEs which, under pervasive chemical weathering, are incorporated within low-temperature REE minerals forming within the regolith. Many of these minerals, as well as their textures, are characteristic of this mode of formation. Lateritic conditions of weathering are instrumental in producing a thick, weathered, or regolith, profile, and the roles of sulfide oxidation, fluctuating groundwater tables, and downward mass wasting due to carbonate dissolution are identified as the most important controls on REE enrichment in the regolith.

Book chapter↗
USGS2025

Modeling interconnected minerals markets with multicommodity supply curves: Examining the copper-cobalt-nickel system

Demand for many of the metals used in the energy transition is expected to grow rapidly. Many of these are by-products, often considered critical because their production responds weakly to prices and is instead tied to the economics of the host mineral. We present a model of prices and production for jointly produced commodities that accounts for interconnectivity between host and by-product markets at the mine level. We demonstrate this method using the copper–cobalt–nickel system, in which approximately 99% of cobalt is a by-product of copper or nickel mining. Our results show that the model more accurately captures the economic benefits of diversified mine outputs than previous approaches. Furthermore, changes in demand drivers for any two commodities produce non-linear effects on production and price. We challenge the prior best-practice assumption that cobalt cannot impact the copper or nickel markets. Recognizing the importance of both copper and cobalt for future electrification, we emphasize that incentivizing the copper industry to reduce cobalt supply risks could inadvertently undermine copper supply.

Nature Communications↗
USGS2025

Stratigraphic notes—Volume 2, 2025

This is the second volume in the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) series of reports on stratigraphy entitled “Stratigraphic Notes,” which consists of short papers that highlight stratigraphic studies, changes in stratigraphic nomenclature, and explanations of stratigraphic names and concepts used on published geologic maps. “Stratigraphic Notes” is a long-term (multiyear), multivolume publication containing articles that address updates or revisions to stratigraphic nomenclature (and whose content ultimately will be incorporated by National Geologic Map Database personnel into Geolex, https://ngmdb.usgs.gov/Geolex/ ). We welcome papers for the “Stratigraphic Notes” series from geoscientists of the USGS, of State Geological Surveys, and from academicians. Papers can be submitted for publication in “Stratigraphic Notes” by contacting the USGS Geologic Names Committee ( gnc@usgs.gov ). As new “Stratigraphic Notes” volumes are published, links to the volumes will be posted at https://doi.org/10.3133/pp1879 .

Professional Paper↗
USGS2026

Stratigraphic notes—Volume 3, 2026

This is the third volume in the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) series of reports on stratigraphy entitled “Stratigraphic Notes,” which consists of short papers that highlight stratigraphic studies, changes in stratigraphic nomenclature, and explanations of stratigraphic names and concepts used on published geologic maps. “Stratigraphic Notes” is a long-term (multiyear), multivolume publication containing articles that address updates or revisions to stratigraphic nomenclature (and whose content ultimately will be incorporated by National Geologic Map Database personnel into Geolex, https://ngmdb.usgs.gov/Geolex/ ). We welcome papers for the “Stratigraphic Notes” series from geoscientists of the USGS, of State Geological Surveys, and from academicians. Papers can be submitted for publication in “Stratigraphic Notes” by contacting the USGS Geologic Names Committee ( gnc@usgs.gov ). As new “Stratigraphic Notes” volumes are published, links to the volumes will be posted at https://doi.org/10.3133/pp1879 .

Professional Paper↗
USGS2025

Critical Minerals in Ores (CMiO) database

Critical minerals are commodities essential to modern industrial and strategic technologies and are highly vulnerable to supply chain disruption. The Critical Minerals Mapping Initiative (CMMI) is a collaboration among the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the Geological Survey of Canada, and Geoscience Australia that aims to deepen global understanding of where critical minerals are located. A key output of this initiative is the Critical Minerals in Ores (CMiO) database that is advancing our collective understanding of critical minerals distributions. For instance, publicly available data on the concentrations of many critical minerals are sparse because these commodities can only be produced in small, yet essential, quantities compared to the primary commodities like copper and zinc. The CMiO database helps bridge this gap by offering high-quality, multielement geochemical data from a wide variety of critical mineral-bearing deposits around the world. Importantly, it uses a novel consensus deposit environment, group, and type classification scheme developed by the agencies that allows comparisons among ore deposits from different regions. The CMiO database contains geochemical data for more than 20,000 samples from more than 100 deposit types comprising 10 deposit environments.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2025

Utilizing downhole datasets for modelling the aeromagnetic signature of the Iron Creek Co-Cu deposit in the Idaho Cobalt Belt

The Idaho Cobalt Belt in east-central Idaho is host to some of the largest domestic Co resources, including the informal Iron Creek deposit. The two main ore zones of this deposit, the Iron Creek and the Ruby, are hosted in greenschist-grade interbedded argillite/siltstone and quartz-rich units of the Mesoproterozoic Apple Creek Formation of Lemhi Group. The primary ore mineral is cobalt-bearing pyrite, which occurs with pyrrhotite, chalcopyrite, and magnetite. This study integrates mineralogical and core-scale geophysical measurements with regional-scale aeromagnetic surveys. The high magnetite content within the Ruby zone produces elevated magnetic susceptibility, but the relatively limited spatial footprint of the ore zone would produce a small-scale anomaly that may be overlooked in regional surveys. The low magnetite content in the Iron Creek zone results in low magnetic susceptibility, creating a relatively low amplitude geophysical response. By characterizing the magnetic properties and mineralogy of these ore zones, this study enhances the interpretation of aeromagnetic data, enabling the identification of small or faint anomalies as potential Co targets. These findings improve can improve exploration strategies, both within the Idaho Cobalt Belt as well as for similar deposit types globally.

Idaho↗
USGS2025

Wangyanite, PdNi8S8, a new Pd end-member mineral of the pentlandite group from the J-M reef, Stillwater Complex, Montana, USA

Wangyanite (IMA2024-008a), ideally PdNi 8 S 8 , is a Pd end-member mineral of the pentlandite group that was discovered in the J-M reef of the Stillwater Complex, Montana, USA. Wangyanite occurs as anhedral-subhedral granular crystals 200–400 µm in size, associated with isoferroplatinum, braggite, pentlandite, and chalcopyrite interstitial to plagioclase grains within anorthosite. Wangyanite exhibits a yellowish brown color with a black streak and a metallic luster. It is brittle with uneven fractures, and has a calculated density of 5.14 g/cm 3 . The mineral does not show discernible pleochroism, bireflectance, or anisotropy. It has an average composition of 9.95 wt.% Pd, 31.95 wt.% Ni, 25.02 wt.% Fe, 0.57 wt.% Co, 31.74 wt.% S, totaling 99.23 wt.%. The empirical formula, based on eight sulfur atoms per formula unit, is (Pd 0.76 Co 0.08 ) Σ0.84 (Ni 4.39 Fe 3.60 ) Σ7.99 S 8 . Wangyanite has a cubic cell with a space group of Fm -3 m (#225), having lattice parameters of a = 10.1167(12) Å, V = 1035.4(4) Å 3 , and Z = 4. Its crystal structure has been solved by single-crystal three-dimensional electron diffraction study. The strongest X-ray diffraction lines of wangyanite are claculated at [ d in Å ( I %)( hkl )]: 5.841(14.03)(111), 3.050(100)(311), 1.947(29.16)(115,333), 1.264(11.66)(800), 3.577(8.79)(220), 2.920(20.82)(222), and 2.321(9.34)(331). Wangyanite shares the same crystal structure as pentlandite, but the octahedrally coordinated site is mainly occupied by Pd in wangyanite. Based on the textural features and previous experimental Pd-Fe-Ni-S phase system, wangyanite could form by peritectic reaction between braggite, pentlandite and sulfide liquid. These mineral associations are stable in a Ni-Pd-rich sulfide melt system at about 550 °C or even lower temperature. Therefore, wangyanite can potentially serve as an indicator of the presence of Pd-rich residual melts. The mineral is named in honor of Prof. Christina Yan Wang, a well-known researcher on platinum-group element (PGE) occurrences and enrichment mechanisms in mafic-ultramafic intrusions, notably those deposits related to the Emeishan large igneous province in China.

Montana↗
USGS2026

Key minerals in energy transmission

The electrical grid relies on minerals with unique properties to transform, transmit, and convert electricity. Transmission needs are growing—to support the expansion of data centers and link diverse energy resources into the grid. This expansion will require greater quantities of minerals. Although some minerals are produced in the United States, the United States relies on imports for others. This infographic shows the key minerals that support energy transmission, and how reliant the United States is on imports for these minerals.

General Information Product↗