Geology Reports⌕ Search

SEARCH · Geology Reports

Results for “Ecological Modeling”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,567 records · Page 87Linked to original sources
USGS2024

Global mercury concentrations in biota: Their use as a basis for a global biomonitoring framework

An important provision of the Minamata Convention on Mercury is to monitor and evaluate the effectiveness of the adopted measures and its implementation. Here, we describe for the first time currently available biotic mercury (Hg) data on a global scale to improve the understanding of global efforts to reduce the impact of Hg pollution on people and the environment. Data from the peer-reviewed literature were compiled in the Global Biotic Mercury Synthesis (GBMS) database (>550,000 data points). These data provide a foundation for establishing a biomonitoring framework needed to track Hg concentrations in biota globally. We describe Hg exposure in the taxa identified by the Minamata Convention: fish, sea turtles, birds, and marine mammals. Based on the GBMS database, Hg concentrations are presented at relevant geographic scales for continents and oceanic basins. We identify some effective regional templates for monitoring methylmercury (MeHg) availability in the environment, but overall illustrate that there is a general lack of regional biomonitoring initiatives around the world, especially in Africa, Australia, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, and South Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Temporal trend data for Hg in biota are generally limited. Ecologically sensitive sites (where biota have above average MeHg tissue concentrations) have been identified throughout the world. Efforts to model and quantify ecosystem sensitivity locally, regionally, and globally could help establish effective and efficient biomonitoring programs. We present a framework for a global Hg biomonitoring network that includes a three-step continental and oceanic approach to integrate existing biomonitoring efforts and prioritize filling regional data gaps linked with key Hg sources. We describe a standardized approach that builds on an evidence-based evaluation to assess the Minamata Convention’s progress to reduce the impact of global Hg pollution on people and the environment.

Ecotoxicology↗
USGS2026

Thinking outside the rocks: Subsurface water storage, topography, and land cover are key modulators of large-scale riverine dissolved silicon dynamics

Riverine dissolved silicon (DSi) dynamics reflect integrated geologic, hydrologic, climatic, and ecological controls. We compiled annual DSi data for 337 rivers across four continents and trained interpretable machine-learning models to predict concentrations and yields from 28 watershed variables. Both models reproduced testing data ( R 2 = 0.85 for concentration and 0.96 for yield) and withheld-site validation ( R 2 = 0.91 and 0.93). Lithology, especially volcanic rock fraction, strongly controlled DSi while subsurface storage, topography, and land cover further shaped DSi dynamics. DSi concentrations and yields exhibited nonlinear responses to basin slope, recession-curve slope, proportion of open-water cover, and nutrient availability. Concentrations showed sharper threshold responses to hydrologic and biotic variables, whereas yields varied more gradually with climate and lithology. These results provide a framework for forecasting DSi under land cover and climate change and for embedding realistic, nonlinear processes in mechanistic models.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2022

Ignoring species availability biases occupancy estimates in single-scale occupancy models

Most applications of single-scale occupancy models do not differentiate between availability and detectability, even though species availability is rarely equal to one. Species availability can be estimated using multi-scale occupancy models; however, for the practical application of multi-scale occupancy models, it can be unclear what a robust sampling design looks like and what the statistical properties of the multi-scale and single-scale occupancy models are when availability is less than one. Using simulations, we explore the following common questions asked by ecologists during the design phase of a field study: (Q1) what is a robust sampling design for the multi-scale occupancy model when there are a priori expectations of parameter estimates? (Q2) what is a robust sampling design when we have no expectations of parameter estimates? and (Q3) can a single-scale occupancy model with a random effects term adequately absorb the extra heterogeneity produced when availability is less than one and provide reliable estimates of occupancy probability? Our results show that there is a tradeoff between the number of sites and surveys needed to achieve a specified level of acceptable error for occupancy estimates using the multi-scale occupancy model. We also document that when species availability is low (<0.40 on the probability scale), then single-scale occupancy models underestimate occupancy by as much as 0.40 on the probability scale, produce overly precise estimates, and provide poor parameter coverage. This pattern was observed when a random effects term was and was not included in the single-scale occupancy model, suggesting that adding a random-effects term does not adequately absorb the extra heterogeneity produced by the availability process. In contrast, when species availability was high (>0.60), single-scale occupancy models performed similarly to the multi-scale occupancy model. Users can further explore our results and sampling designs across a number of different scenarios using the RShiny app https://gdirenzo.shinyapps.io/multi-scale-occ/ . Our results suggest that unaccounted for availability can lead to underestimating species distributions when using single-scale occupancy models, which can have large implications on inference and prediction, especially for those working in the fields of invasion ecology, disease emergence, and species conservation.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2014

The effects of flow and stream characteristics on the variation in freshwater mussel growth in a Southeast US river basin

Summary The evaluation of the age and growth of animal populations is essential for understanding and predicting how populations will respond to changes in environmental conditions and anthropogenic stressors. We used a novel, von Bertalanffy hierarchical modelling approach to quantify relationships between the growth of three freshwater mussel species and various site- and watershed-level factors including seasonal discharge, land cover and stream size in the lower Flint River Basin, Georgia, U.S.A. Our modelling approach quantified the mussel-to-mussel variation in the von Bertalanffy parameters and accounted for biases associated with multiple measurements made on each mussel specimen, which are generally not accounted for as sources of bias in age and growth studies. Modelling results suggested that maximum shell size parameter and the Brody growth coefficient varied across species, on average, 19 and 33%, respectively, among individual mussels within sample sites. The variation was related to short-term high streamflows during the spring season, stream size, channel geomorphology and land cover in the watershed. This study provides insight to the factors affecting the growth of stream-dwelling freshwater mussels. Although hierarchical von Bertalanffy growth models are rarely used for freshwater mussel age and growth studies, this approach can provide important information regarding the ecology of freshwater mussels.

Georgia↗
USGS1997

Review of selected features of the natural system model, and suggestions for applications in south Florida

A study was conducted to review selected features of the Natural System Model, version 4.3. The Natural System Model is a regional-scale model that uses recent climatic data and estimates of historic vegetation and topography to simulate pre-canal-drainage hydrologic response in south Florida. Equations used to represent the hydrologic system and the numerical solution of these equations in the model were documented and reviewed. Convergence testing was performed using 1965 input data, and selected other aspects of the model were evaluated. Some conclusions from the evaluation of the Natural System Model include the following observations. Simulations were generally insensitive to the temporal resolution used in the model. However, reduction of the computational cell size from 2-mile by 2-mile to 2/3-mile by 2/3-mile resulted in a decrease in spatial mean ponding depths for October of 0.35 foot for a 3-hour time step. Review of the computer code indicated that there is no limit on the amount of water that can be transferred from the river system to the overland flow system, on the amount of seepage from the river to the ground-water system, on evaporation from the river system, or on evapotranspiration from the overland-flow system. Oscillations of 0.2 foot or less in simulated river stage were identified and attributed to a volume limiting function which is applied in solution of the overland-flow equations. The computation of the resistance coefficient is not consistent with the computation of overland-flow velocity. Ground-water boundary conditions do not always ensure a no-flow condition at the boundary. These inconsistencies had varying degrees of effects on model simulations, and it is likely that simulations longer than 1 year are needed to fully identify effects. However, inconsistencies in model formulations should not be ignored, even if the effects of such errors on model results appear to be small or have not been clearly defined. The Natural System Model can be a very useful tool for estimating pre-drainage hydrologic response in south Florida. The model includes all of the important physical processes needed to simulate a water balance. With a few exceptions, these hydrologic processes are represented in a reasonable manner using empirical, semiempirical, and mechanistic relations. The data sets that have been assembled to represent physical features, and hydrologic and meteorological conditions are quite extensive in their scope. Some suggestions for model application were made. Simulation results from the Natural System Model need to be interpreted on a regional basis, rather than cell by cell. The available evidence suggests that simulated water levels should be interpreted with about a plus or minus 1 foot uncertainty. It is probably not appropriate to use the Natural System Model to estimate pre-drainage discharges (as opposed to hydroperiods and water levels) at a particular location or across a set of adjacent computational cells. All simulated results for computational cells within about 10 miles of the model boundaries have a higher degree of uncertainty than results for the interior of the model domain. It is most appropriate to interpret the Natural System Model simulation results in connection with other available information. Stronger linkages between hydrologic inputs to the Everglades and the ecological response of the system would enhance restoration efforts.

Florida↗
USGS2000

Modeling the distribution of neotropical birds throughout the Americas

I assessed tbe geographic information system (GIS) model and data layers used to create individual Neotropical bird species distribution maps from habitat data contained in the Ecological and Distributional Databases in 'Neotropical Birds: Ecology and Conservation' by D.F. Stotz, J.W. Fitzpatrick, T.A. Parker Ill, and D.K. Moskovits.

Book chapter↗
USGS2010

Hydrodynamic modeling of juvenile mussel dispersal in a large river: The potential effects of bed shear stress and other parameters

Because unionid mussels have a parasitic larval stage, they are able to disperse upstream and downstream as larvae while attached to their host fish and with flow as juveniles after excystment from the host. Understanding unionid population ecology requires knowledge of the processes that affect juvenile dispersal prior to establishment. We examined presettlement (transport and dispersion with flow) and early postsettlement (bed shear stress) hydraulic processes as negative censoring mechanisms. Our approach was to model dispersal using particle tracking through a 3-dimensional flow field output from hydrodynamic models of a reach of the Upper Mississippi River. We tested the potential effects of bed shear stress (??b) at 5 flow rates on juvenile mussel dispersal and quantified the magnitude of these effects as a function of flow rate. We explored the reach-scale relationships of Froude number (Fr), water depth (H), local bed slope (S), and unit stream power (QS) with the likelihood of juvenile settling (??). We ran multiple dispersal simulations at each flow rate to estimate ??, the parameter of a Poisson distribution, from the number of juveniles settling in each grid cell, and calculated dispersal distances. Virtual juveniles that settled in areas of the river where b > critical shear stress (c) were resuspended in the flow and transported further downstream, so we ran simulations at 3 different conditions for ??c (??c = ??? no resuspension, 0.1, and 0.05 N/m2). Differences in virtual juvenile dispersal distance were significantly dependent upon c and flow rate, and effects of b on settling distribution were dependent upon c. Most simulations resulted in positive correlations between ?? and ??b, results suggesting that during early postsettlement, ??b might be the primary determinant of juvenile settling distribution. Negative correlations between ?? and ??b occurred in some simulations, a result suggesting that physical or biological presettlement processes might determine juvenile settling distributions. Field data are needed to test these hypotheses. Results support the idea that flow patterns and b can act as negative censoring mechanisms controlling settling distributions. Furthermore, a river reach probably has a quantifiable threshold range of flow rates. Above the upper threshold, ??b probably is the primary determinant of juvenile settling distribution. Relationships of ?? with H, Fr, S, and QS were relatively weak. Important physical processes that affect dispersal probably are not captured by approximations based on large-scale hydraulic parameters, such as Fr and H. ?? 2010 The North American Benthological Society.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2021

Adaptive monitoring in action: Reconsidering design-based estimators reveals underestimation of whitebark pine disease prevalence in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

Identifying and understanding status and trends in ecological indicators motivates continual monitoring over decades. Many programs rely on probability surveys and their companion design-based estimators for status assessments (e.g. Horvitz–Thompson). Design-based estimators do not easily extend to trend estimation nor situations with observation errors. Field-based monitoring efforts inevitably have turnover of field crew members which may affect consistency and accuracy of data collection over time. Additionally, design-based estimators ignore the complexities of spatial and temporal heterogeneity in an ecological indicator and how this variability may be linked to environmental or biological dynamics. We propose monitoring programs should re-evaluate their prescribed statistical methods, consider model-based approaches and adapt their sampling designs as needed to improve inferences. The Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, home to two of the most iconic U.S. National Parks, has experienced significant declines in whitebark pine Pinus albicaulis communities due to forest pathogens, insect outbreaks, wildland fires and drought. Whitebark pine is a keystone species found in mountainous environments throughout the Western U.S. and Canada. We assessed the design-based ratio estimator originally recommended for estimating prevalence of white pine blister rust Cronartium ribicola . We compared the design-based estimator to a model-based approach that accounts for the sampling design, imperfect detection and allows for infection probabilities to vary over space and time. Ignoring observation errors led to lower estimated prevalence of white pine blister rust in the general population. Using model-based approaches, we found that the probability of infection has increased since 2004. However, overall prevalence likely has not changed because of the mountain pine beetle Dendroctonus ponderosae -induced shift towards smaller diameter trees that have a lower probability of infection compared to their larger cohorts. Synthesis and Applications . Using a design-based approach to detect change in ecological indicators falls short because of the inability to account for observation errors or to explore environmental or biological factors explaining temporal dynamics. Inherently understanding the mechanisms leading to changes in an ecological indicator over time informs potential management actions. Our assessment underscores the need for continued evaluation and updating of a monitoring program's sampling design and analytical procedures to maintain relevancy.

Wyoming↗
USGS2022

Functional wetland loss drives emerging risks to waterbird migration networks

Migratory waterbirds (i.e., shorebirds, wading birds, and waterfowl) rely on a diffuse continental network of wetland habitats to support annual life cycle needs. Emerging threats of climate and land-use change raise new concerns over the sustainability of these habitat networks as water scarcity triggers cascading ecological effects impacting wetland habitat availability. Here we use important waterbird regions in Oregon and California, United States, as a model system to examine patterns of landscape change impacting wetland habitat networks in western North America. Wetland hydrology and flooded agricultural habitats were monitored monthly from 1988 to 2020 using satellite imagery to quantify the timing and duration of inundation—a key delimiter of habitat niche values associated with waterbird use. Trends were binned by management practice and wetland hydroperiods (semi-permanent, seasonal, and temporary) to identify differences in their climate and land-use change sensitivity. Wetland results were assessed using 33 waterbird species to detect non-linear effects of network change across a diversity of life cycle and habitat needs. Pervasive loss of semi-permanent wetlands was an indicator of systemic functional decline. Shortened hydroperiods caused by excessive drying transitioned semi-permanent wetlands to seasonal and temporary hydrologies—a process that in part counterbalanced concurrent seasonal and temporary wetland losses. Expansion of seasonal and temporary wetlands associated with closed-basin lakes offset wetland declines on other public and private lands, including wildlife refuges. Diving ducks, black terns, and grebes exhibited the most significant risk of habitat decline due to semi-permanent wetland loss that overlapped important migration, breeding, molting, and wintering periods. Shorebirds and dabbling ducks were beneficiaries of stable agricultural practices and top-down processes of functional wetland declines that operated collectively to maintain habitat needs. Outcomes from this work provide a novel perspective of wetland ecosystem change affecting waterbirds and their migration networks. Understanding the complexity of these relationships will become increasingly important as water scarcity continues to restructure the timing and availability of wetland resources.

California, Nevada, Oregon↗
USGS2021

Are drought indices and climate data good indicators of ecologically relevant soil moisture dynamics in drylands?

Droughts are disproportionately impacting global dryland regions where ecosystem health and function are tightly coupled to moisture availability. Drought severity is commonly estimated using algorithms such as the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI), which can estimate climatic water balance impacts at various hydrologic scales by varying computational length. However, the performance of these metrics as indicators of soil moisture dynamics at ecologically relevant scales, across soil depths, and in consideration of broader scale ecohydrological processes, requires more attention. In this study, we tested components of climatic water balance, including SPEI and SPEI computation lengths, to recreate multi-decadal and periodic soil-moisture patterns across soil profiles at 866 sites in the western United States. Modeling results show that SPEI calculated over the prior 12-months was the most predictive computation length and could recreate changes in moisture availability within the soil profile over longer periods of time and for annual recharge of deeper soil moisture stores. SPEI was slightly less successful with recreating spring surface-soil moisture availability, which is key to dryland ecosystems dominated by winter precipitation. Meteorological drought indices like SPEI are intended to be convenient and generalized indicators of meteorological water deficit. However, the inconsistent ability of SPEI to recreate ecologically relevant patterns of soil moisture at regional scales suggests that process-based models, and the larger data requirements they involve, remain an important tool for dryland ecohydrology

California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah↗
USGS2022

Estimating Pacific walrus abundance and survival with multievent mark-recapture models

Arctic marine ecosystems are undergoing rapid physical and biological change associated with climate warming and loss of sea ice. Sea ice loss will impact many species through altered spatial and temporal availability of resources. In the Bering and Chukchi Seas, the Pacific walrus Odobenus rosmarus divergens is one species that could be impacted by rapid environmental change, and thus, population assessments are needed to monitor changes in the status of this ecologically and culturally important marine mammal. We conducted a 5 yr genetic mark-recapture study to estimate demographic parameters for the Pacific walrus. We developed a Bayesian multievent mark-recapture model to estimate walrus survival and abundance while accounting for age misclassification. We estimated the probability of juvenile annual survival as 0.63 (95% credible interval [CrI]: 0.39-0.87) and adult female annual survival as 0.90 (95% CrI: 0.74-1.00). We estimated total abundance as 257 193 (95% CrI: 171 138-366 366). We provide the first estimate of total Pacific walrus abundance since an aerial survey in 2006, which generated a substantially less precise total population size estimate (129 000; 95% CI: 55 000-507 000). The emerging ecosystem state in the northern Bering and Chukchi Seas will likely result in a decline in Pacific walrus abundance, but there is substantial uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the anticipated decline. Our demographic estimates provide critical information to evaluate future population trends of this subsistence resource vital to communities that border the Bering and Chukchi Seas in the USA and Russia.

Alaska↗
USGS2023

Where can managers effectively resist climate-driven ecological transformation in pinyon-juniper woodlands of the US Southwest?

Pinyon–juniper (PJ) woodlands are an important component of dryland ecosystems across the US West and are potentially susceptible to ecological transformation. However, predicting woodland futures is complicated by species-specific strategies for persisting and reproducing under drought conditions, uncertainty in future climate, and limitations to inferring demographic rates from forest inventory data. Here, we leverage new demographic models to quantify how climate change is expected to alter population demographics in five PJ tree species in the US West and place our results in the context of a climate adaptation framework to resist, accept, or direct ecological transformation. Two of five study species, Pinus edulis and Juniperus monosperma , are projected to experience population declines, driven by both rising mortality and decreasing recruitment rates. These declines are reasonably consistent across various climate futures, and the magnitude of uncertainty in population growth due to future climate is less than uncertainty due to how demographic rates will respond to changing climate. We assess the effectiveness of management to reduce tree density and mitigate competition, and use the results to classify southwest woodlands into areas where transformation is (a) unlikely and can be passively resisted, (b) likely but may be resisted by active management, and (c) likely unavoidable, requiring managers to accept or direct the trajectory. Population declines are projected to promote ecological transformation in the warmer and drier PJ communities of the southwest, encompassing 37.1%–81.1% of our sites, depending on future climate scenarios. Less than 20% of sites expected to transform away from PJ have potential to retain existing tree composition by density reduction. Our results inform where this adaptation strategy could successfully resist ecological transformation in coming decades and allow for a portfolio design approach across the geographic range of PJ woodlands.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah↗
USGS2018

Environmental and ecological conditions at Arctic breeding sites have limited effects on true survival rates of adult shorebirds

Many Arctic shorebird populations are declining, and quantifying adult survival and the effects of anthropogenic factors is a crucial step toward a better understanding of population dynamics. We used a recently developed, spatially explicit Cormack–Jolly–Seber model in a Bayesian framework to obtain broad-scale estimates of true annual survival rates for 6 species of shorebirds at 9 breeding sites across the North American Arctic in 2010–2014. We tested for effects of environmental and ecological variables, study site, nest fate, and sex on annual survival rates of each species in the spatially explicit framework, which allowed us to distinguish between effects of variables on site fidelity versus true survival. Our spatially explicit analysis produced estimates of true survival rates that were substantially higher than previously published estimates of apparent survival for most species, ranging from S = 0.72 to 0.98 across 5 species. However, survival was lower for the arcticola subspecies of Dunlin ( Calidris alpina arcticola ; S = 0.54), our only study taxon that migrates through the East Asian–Australasian Flyway. Like other species that use that flyway, arcticola Dunlin could be experiencing unsustainably low survival rates as a result of loss of migratory stopover habitat. Survival rates of our study species were not affected by timing of snowmelt or summer temperature, and only 2 species showed minor variation among study sites. Furthermore, although previous reproductive success, predator abundance, and the availability of alternative prey each affected survival of one species, no factors broadly affected survival across species. Overall, our findings of few effects of environmental or ecological variables suggest that annual survival rates of adult shorebirds are generally robust to conditions at Arctic breeding sites. Instead, conditions at migratory stopovers or overwintering sites might be driving adult survival rates and should be the focus of future studies.

The Auk↗
USGS2022

Coupling process-based and empirical models to assess management options to meet conservation goals

Conservation lands face a mounting threat of ecosystem transformation and the loss of biodiversity from the invasion of fire-prone perennial and annual grasses. Managers must make difficult decisions to find efficient ways to expend limited resources to manage large and complex landscapes amidst substantial uncertainty regarding effective treatment strategies, climates, and invader-induced novel processes. We developed a state-and-transition simulation model coupled with a fire behavior model to study impacts to native biodiversity and fire regimes in a national park invaded by a perennial grass. We evaluated resources required to meet management objectives, and how to spatially allocate available resources efficiently and effectively. Management strategies and ecological scenarios strongly influenced the ability to minimize potential impacts; the inclusion of a new management strategy, aerial precision spot spraying targeting low cover levels in remote regions, was needed to supplement current treatments that can only target large, dense patches. Adding this new treatment method may be enough to conserve the desert ecosystem from small scale transformation through invasive competition and from broad functional transformations through invasive-induced fire regime changes. Spot spraying may also be highly beneficial if wetter monsoonal conditions create faster growth rates, decreasing the ability to contain the invasion even with unlimited management resources. Given current annual budgets for control, and the new treatment option, invasion control and preservation of native biodiversity may be possible regardless of spatial prioritization. Coupled empirical and process-based models efficiently simulated the effects of management activities, quantifying potential management costs and ecological impacts, while considering a wide range of possible future uncertainties associated with climate, spread rates, and wildfires lacking historical precedent. These techniques could be applied to other situations to evaluate the feasibility of conservation goals and to determine actions that would be most efficient and effective in meeting those goals.

Arizona↗
USGS2002

The importance of functional form in optimal control solutions of problems in population dynamics

Optimal control theory is finding increased application in both theoretical and applied ecology, and it is a central element of adaptive resource management. One of the steps in an adaptive management process is to develop alternative models of system dynamics, models that are all reasonable in light of available data, but that differ substantially in their implications for optimal control of the resource. We explored how the form of the recruitment and survival functions in a general population model for ducks affected the patterns in the optimal harvest strategy, using a combination of analytical, numerical, and simulation techniques. We compared three relationships between recruitment and population density (linear, exponential, and hyperbolic) and three relationships between survival during the nonharvest season and population density (constant, logistic, and one related to the compensatory harvest mortality hypothesis). We found that the form of the component functions had a dramatic influence on the optimal harvest strategy and the ultimate equilibrium state of the system. For instance, while it is commonly assumed that a compensatory hypothesis leads to higher optimal harvest rates than an additive hypothesis, we found this to depend on the form of the recruitment function, in part because of differences in the optimal steady-state population density. This work has strong direct consequences for those developing alternative models to describe harvested systems, but it is relevant to a larger class of problems applying optimal control at the population level. Often, different functional forms will not be statistically distinguishable in the range of the data. Nevertheless, differences between the functions outside the range of the data can have an important impact on the optimal harvest strategy. Thus, development of alternative models by identifying a single functional form, then choosing different parameter combinations from extremes on the likelihood profile may end up producing alternatives that do not differ as importantly as if different functional forms had been used. We recommend that biological knowledge be used to bracket a range of possible functional forms, and robustness of conclusions be checked over this range.

Ecology↗
USGS2022

Fuel reduction treatments reduce modeled fire intensity in the sagebrush steppe

Increased fire size and frequency coupled with annual grass invasion pose major challenges to sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.) ecosystem conservation, which is currently focused on protecting sagebrush community composition and structure. A common strategy for mitigating potential fire is to use fuel treatments that alter the structure and amount of burnable material, thus reducing fire behavior and creating access points for fire suppression resources. While there is some recent information on the impacts of fuel treatments on ecological communities, we have little information on fuel treatment effectiveness at modifying fire behavior in sagebrush ecosystems. We present 10 years of data on fuel accumulation and the resultant modeled fire behavior in prescribed fire, mowed, herbicide (tebuthiuron or imazapic), and untreated control plots in the Sagebrush Treatment Evaluation Project (SageSTEP) network in the Great Basin, USA. Fuel data (i.e., aboveground burnable live and dead biomass) were collected in each treatment plot at Years 0 (pretreatment), 1, 2, 3, 6, and 10 posttreatment. We used the Fuel and Fire Tool fire behavior modeling program to test whether treatments impacted potential fire behavior. Prescribed fire initially removed 49% of the total fuel load and 75% of shrubs, and fuel loads remained reduced through Year 10. Mowing shifted fuels from the shrub canopy to the ground surface but did not change the total fuel amount. Prescribed fire and mowing increased herbaceous fuel by the second posttreatment year and that trend persisted through Year 10. Tebuthiuron treatments were ineffective at altering fuel loads. Imazapic suppressed herbaceous vegetation by 30% in Years 2 and 3 following treatment. The modified fuel beds in fire and mow treatments resulted in modeled flame lengths that were significantly lower than untreated control plots for the duration of the study, with shorter term reductions in reaction intensity and rate of spread. Understanding fuel treatment effectiveness will allow natural resource managers to evaluate trade-offs between protecting wildlife habitat and reducing the potential for high-intensity wildfire.

Ecosphere↗